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Fragile Israeli-Lebanon Truce Faces Test; Trump: Next Round of Iran Talks Possible 'Over the Weekend'; 40 Senate Dems Vote Against Arms for Israel; Trump: After War, Prices Will Be Lower Than Before. Aired 6-6:30a ET

Aired April 17, 2026 - 06:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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CHRISTINA KOCH, ARTEMIS II MISSION SPECIALIST: We saw different sizes. We were close in proximity. We used its gravity to propel ourselves, along with our translunar injection burn, to the Moon.

[06:00:12]

We saw it as a crescent as it set behind the Moon and rose behind the Moon.

And the idea that every human experience that we've invented, that we've gone through, that mean something to us as people. Everything that keeps us alive, that's the same, is all in that small orb that's hanging like a lifeboat in so much blackness. And the unifying power of that.

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OMAR JIMENEZ, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Omar Jimenez in New York, everyone. CNN THIS MORNING starts right now.

AUDIE CORNISH, CNN ANCHOR: A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon in place. And signs point to more U.S.-Iran talks this weekend. Could the war be reaching its final days?

Optimism in Lebanon. Will diplomacy prevail?

And --

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DONALD TRUMP, U.S. PRESIDENT: We can have victory very shortly.

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CORNISH: You've got the president projecting confidence. Does he trust the vice president to get the job done?

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UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Stevie Wonder can even see how much this is costing us. (END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: Yet, the White House budget boss refuses to give Congress a number. Are lawmakers ready to write a blank check to support the troops?

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PETE HEGSETH, U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY: And in the passage, Jesus entered a synagogue and healed a man with a withered hand.

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CORNISH: Preaching from the Pentagon and feuding with the pope. We're going to talk about faith and religion as a political tool.

CNN THIS MORNING starts right now.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: I will say the war in Iran is going along swimmingly. We can do whatever we want. And it should be -- it should be ending pretty soon.

Let's see what happens over the next week or so.

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CORNISH: All right. So, the president is saying that he thinks they will see a second round of talks with Iran this weekend. So, we're asking, could the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon help move things along?

Good morning, everybody. I'm Audie Cornish, and here's where we start, with this breaking news.

A ten-day truce between Israel and Hezbollah now in effect, Lebanon's army is already accusing Israel of violating it. Twelve hours in, however, it is holding.

The White House says both J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio helped broker the ceasefire, and President Trump has invited leaders from Israel and Lebanon to the White House for future talks.

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BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER (through translator): We have an opportunity for a historic peace agreement with Lebanon. President Donald Trump intends to invite me and the president of Lebanon in order to try to advance this agreement.

This opportunity exists because since the war of revival, we have fundamentally changed the balance of power in Lebanon.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: OK, so we've got some live team coverage here. CNN's Nic Robertson is watching for talks between the U.S. and Iran. I'm going to start, however, with CNN's Nada Bashir.

So, Nada, if we could start just with the state of this ceasefire, so to speak, what are you seeing right now out of Lebanon?

NADA BASHIR, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, look, Audie, the ceasefire is holding at this stage, but as you mentioned, it is considered to be fragile.

As you've mentioned, we've already heard from the Israeli [SIC] military -- from the Lebanese military, rather, accusing the Israel Defense Forces in Southern Lebanon of violating the terms of the ceasefire agreement.

And of course, there are questions around how the actual terms of this agreement will be implemented in practice over the next ten days.

Of course, there were six clear points outlined in this agreement. It is expected to last ten days, with the potential for an extension of this truce.

This has been characterized as a good faith agreement in order to allow for further negotiations and talks to take place between the two nations.

But of course, there have also been some clear terms set out by the Israeli government with regards to the protection of the position of Israeli troops on the ground.

So, we are expecting to see the IDF maintaining posts in Southern Lebanon. They have described this and characterized this as a ten- kilometer security zone. So, that is far broader than what we saw, for example, in the 2024 ceasefire agreement.

They have also maintained the right to carry out defensive strikes and attacks against any threat from Hezbollah deemed necessary by the Israeli military.

So, while that truce is in place, we may will still see attacks on the Southern part of Lebanon beyond the Litani River. That has certainly been the warning from the Israeli prime minister and Israeli security officials, as well.

CORNISH: OK, that's Nada Bashir, and I want to follow that up with CNN's international diplomatic editor, Nic Robertson, who is in Islamabad.

This is such an important moment, because the -- it's one of the many sticking points in the ceasefire deal between the U.S. and Iran -- right? -- was this question of whether or not hostilities would continue against Hezbollah.

I want to play a little bit for you from the defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, who issued this warning to Iran. We'll talk on the other side of it.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) HEGSETH: To Iran, choose wisely. The world watched, and so did you, as

the U.S. military moved seamlessly from major combat operations to a world-class blockade. We can make that transition again.

We are locked and loaded on your critical dual-use infrastructure, on your remaining power generation, and on your energy industry.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: So, Nic, you hear the U.S. speaking from a position of leverage. Can you talk about what that means for these talks?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Well, right now the lead Pakistan mediators, the most powerful men in the country, Field Marshal Asim Munir and the interior minister, are just about to go into their third day of talks in Tehran with Iranian leaders.

They're met with a No. 2 in the delegate in the Iranian talks team. They've met with the No. 1, they've met with the army chiefs there. They met last night with the president.

The talks continue today. And I think it's fair to say how those talks go will determine whether or not there will be a document or something to sign over the weekend here in Islamabad.

I'm sort of getting the impression from sources at the moment that if the negotiators, if the field marshal can push the Iranians, convince the Iranians to get into a position of compromise, then there won't be much talking left to do here in Islamabad. It really will be just sort of dotting the "I's," crossing the "T's," and putting signatures in place. That's the best-case scenario.

I think as we look at it at the moment, absolutely, the Lebanon ceasefire has -- has been a positive help for those talks that are going on in Tehran right now. The Iranians praising the Pakistanis for, you know, for their role in getting that ceasefire in Lebanon.

Remembering again, of course, this was a big contentious issue going into the ceasefire over a week ago.

And of course, the Iranians will have seen President Trump really put a lot of pressure on the -- on the Lebanese and on the Israeli prime minister to get that ceasefire going.

So, from the perspective of the big picture on the talks that may inject some trust on the Iranian side --

CORNISH: Yes.

ROBERTSON: -- that President Trump wants a deal. President Trump is talking very positively about it.

But the key question, other than the technicalities of what -- what Iran does with its nuclear facilities and the commitments there, is how do they interpret President Trump's position? Is he too keen to get into a deal to get the ceasefire going in Lebanon and to get into a bigger deal?

And will the Iranians interpret that as an opportunity to try to extract more gains from these talks? And I think pretty much that's where were at. At the end of the day, we may have a better idea about the weekend.

CORNISH: Can you talk about the domestic pressures, however? I mean, you've got Trump saying to -- warning Hezbollah to quote, unquote, "act nicely."

But you've also got voices out of Israel, especially Northern Israeli leaders, calling that -- calling this deal with -- with Iran [SIC] -- with, sorry, with Lebanon the worst option. There's a lot of pushback we're seeing.

ROBERTSON: Yes. And there's been pressure on both sides from President Trump to get this deal done and get it done in a timely way.

Sources I'm talking to in Lebanon feel that that means that the ceasefire would be fragile.

But the -- the sort of key component, if you will, in this for President Trump, it appears, was to get this agreement in Lebanon delivered, so that the Pakistan mediators in Tehran would have something positive to put on the table for the Iranians to move the talks forward and get concessions.

But absolutely, a deal like this that is historic in nature, in terms -- in terms of what could happen in Lebanon, has got off to a shaky technical, diplomatic start, never mind the military issues that really underscore the tensions.

And not only that, the perception in Israel that the prime minister there is really quitting too soon --

CORNISH: Yes.

ROBERTSON: -- in defeating Hezbollah in Lebanon.

CORNISH: OK. Great analysis from Nic Robertson. Thank you so much.

And stay with us, because coming up on CNN THIS MORNING, it was a late night on Capitol Hill. There's this messy battle over a spy powers vote.

In the meantime, RFK in the hot seat. He was facing some hard questions once again about his views on vaccines.

And in the meantime, on the issue of the war, you had Democrats breaking with Israel, the party trying to walk a fine line.

[06:10:05]

And the group chat has some thoughts. Next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) CORNISH: All right. We're watching a major shift underway in Washington, where 40 Senate Democrats -- we're talking the vast majority of the caucus -- well, they voted to block certain weapons sales to Israel.

And it's just the latest example of how deep the divide is within the party over the prime minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his military campaigns.

[06:15:08]

The leader of the Senate Democrats, Chuck Schumer, is among the seven members who stood their ground in opposition.

Joining me now in the group chat, Noel King, co-host of the podcast and radio show "Today, Explained"; Elliot Williams, CNN legal analyst and former federal prosecutor; and Terry Schilling, president of the American Principles Project.

I wanted to talk about this, because this is not the first time that a resolution like this has been put forward, and this one was put by Bernie Sanders. And each time it's gotten a few more votes, a few more votes to say, let us stop the U.S. sending certain bombs, bulldozers to Israel.

I want to play for you what Sanders had to say after the vote, sort of noting this progress.

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SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT): The American people are hurting financially. They can't afford to fill up their gas tanks, can't afford food and housing. And you know what? They've got better things to do with our money than provide it to the destructive policies of Netanyahu and his military. So, we're making progress.

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CORNISH: I notice he called it progress, right?

NOEL KING, CO-HOST, "TODAY, EXPLAINED": Yes.

CORNISH: These votes didn't go through. But can you talk about that?

KING: Well, it's interesting, because you have heard that kind of language from Bernie Sanders and others for, what, a generation now?

I mean, I remember like 2003, 2004, hearing certain members of Congress talk like that. What's happening now, obviously, is that it's becoming more and more common.

CORNISH: Yes. We're going to show the polling while you're talking.

KING: Yes. Yes, yes.

CORNISH: Where Democrats are. KING: I think that Democrats are trying to respond to what their

constituents want. And we do know that the American people are abandoning their support of Israel.

CORNISH: Their sympathies are in a different place.

KING: Sympathies are moving toward the Palestinians.

CORNISH: I want to talk about the Senate Democrats who voted against blocking this weapon sales. You've, of course, got the leader, Senator Chuck Schumer. John Fetterman, who's talked a lot about being not where his party is on this. Richard Blumenthal, Chris Coons.

So, you guys see anything that these folks have in common, or how do you think about them in the context of what Noel has said? Who's responding to their constituencies?

ELLIOT WILLIAMS, CNN LEGAL ANALYST: Yes, I don't think there's a huge surprise among any of them. I was struck. I did notice Chris Coons is up for reelection this year in the state of Delaware, which can -- is traditionally a blue state, but can be somewhat finicky in Democratic politics.

But no, these are -- these are all senators with -- with long histories, in many ways, of support for Israel. So, it's not a big surprise there.

But I think it is pretty fascinating that you're talking about 40 Democrats now, where, in a body that often requires 60 votes to do anything. So, the -- when the number of Democrats opposing something ticks up, that could imperil future votes on this.

CORNISH: What people may not realize, context wise, is back in March, the administration invoked a kind of emergency power to transfer weapons to Israel.

They basically said, this is an emergency. Things are happening. And so, we are going to go ahead and make this declaration under the Arms Export Control Act.

The reason why I want to come to you, Terry, is because it's one thing to talk about Democrats and where they are when it comes to Israel, but the Iran war has really exposed a rift among Republicans.

TERRY SCHILLING, PRESIDENT, AMERICAN PRINCIPLES PROJECT: No, that's absolutely right, Audie. And I think, you know, when Bernie Sanders was mentioning how things are tough here at home, I think that's a lot of what's driving it.

Americans are hurting. You know, the average age of first-time home buyers in America is at 40 now. Americans can't afford to have homes. The young people in this country are giving up hope on the economy.

And so, I think there's a huge movement across both parties to really focus on domestically --

CORNISH: Yes.

SCHILLING: -- helping out American people, especially young families.

CORNISH: But it -- this isn't necessarily -- and someone here telling me I'm wrong.

In the past, this would have been a major message point-scoring vote, right? Like you vote on this, everyone's going to know that you voted against Israel. And this would become something that could harm you in the future election.

Are we in the same place?

WILLIAMS: Well, I think that roles are getting scrambled somewhat when it comes to foreign policy.

Remember, the creation of Donald Trump and MAGA, let's say ten or however many years ago, was in part over opposition to endless wars, right?

Trump, the candidate, came in raising a point of not wanting to see American-- whether you want to call it meddling or interference overseas.

That has scrambled the modern Republican coalition a little bit. So, you're seeing cracks all over on both sides, as we've been talking about here.

CORNISH: Yes.

WILLIAMS: The left and right, when it comes to whether it's foreign aid when it comes to Israel or --

CORNISH: And in particular, the loudest voices, I should say.

WILLIAMS: Yes.

CORNISH: The polling still shows --

KING: Yes.

CORNISH: -- MAGA-identified voters supporting Trump and his war. But it just feels like some of the language --

WILLIAMS: Yes.

CORNISH: -- the marquee MAGA voices use are very anti-Netanyahu.

SCHILLING: Well, look, I think -- first and foremost, I think MAGA is more of a movement around supporting President Trump. You know, that was his -- his slogan. That's what he wanted to do.

But there's a new emerging movement on the right, and it's "America first." And I'm uncomfortable with some aspects of it. But at the same time, this next movement that's coming after Trump wants to put America first over everything. [06:20:05]

And I feel like -- I don't feel like -- these voters feel like that are part of that, they feel like America has been put on the back end. We've got problems here at home, and it's not being addressed. And that's ultimately what's driving it.

CORNISH: Right. OK. Stay with us, because we've got a couple of other things we want to talk about, where the politics feel a bit scrambled.

After the break on CNN THIS MORNING, the president has been talking about gas prices, saying that they aren't that high. And he promises that they are going to be coming down, if you are worried about that. So how fast can that happen?

And are we talking about the Wild West or the Big Apple? This is a chase out of a movie. Yes, it's on horseback.

And good morning to Des Moines, Iowa. Thank you for being with us today as you are waking up.

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[06:25:05]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Gas is like, in Arizona, in Tempe, is like over $5.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I don't need a second car. I don't enjoy putting gas in the car. It's about to be summer, and me and Bean will be good on foot.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I'm at the gas station. I want to show you all something. This is the most I've ever seen somebody spend on gas.

DIGITAL READOUT ON PUMP: $102.98.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

CORNISH: Woof. So, oil prices are supposed to be coming down after President Trump's de-escalation in the Middle East.

This morning, prices opened at more than 3 percent lower. And so, the president is optimistic.

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TRUMP: I think we have a very successful negotiation going on right now. And I think it will be -- if it happens, it will be announced fairly soon. And that will give us free oil, free Hormuz Strait. Everything will be nice. And I think your oil price will go down to lower than what it was before.

(END VIDEO CLIP) CORNISH: Joining me now is Bob McNally, international energy consultant. He's also president of the Rapidan Group. Thank you so much for being here.

We're in this inflection point where the U.S. Navy has a blockade in the Gulf of Oman, and they've got more sanctions on Iranian oil.

Obviously, Iran has had a bit of a military chokehold on the Strait of Hormuz.

But the Iranian foreign minister said this: "There's nothing short of economic terrorism and state-sponsored extortion -- actions that amount to crimes against humanity and, in their cumulative effect, constitute genocide."

The reason why I wanted to play this to you is because I want to talk about how long everyone can hold out with their oil in the strait.

Hey there. Yes. Bob, did I lose you?

BOB MCNALLY, INTERNATIONAL ENERGY CONSULTANT: Oh, I thought you were going to play something, Audie. I'm sorry.

CORNISH: No, no, no.

MCNALLY: I thought you were going to play a tape.

CORNISH: Sorry about that. No, no.

MCNALLY: Sorry about that. All right. Well, that's the thing --

CORNISH: How long can Iran hold out? It also has oil fields. How long can this go?

MCNALLY: Right, right. So, optimists would think -- optimists, meaning pain comes to Iran -- maybe a couple of weeks. At Rapidan, we think it's a little longer.

The big question is how much storage capacity does Iran have? It's not exactly telling us all that. And we -- the data are hard to get.

At Rapidan, we think they can probably go a number of weeks, maybe a month or a little longer, meaning they can store that crude that President Trump has blockaded, has blocked. Others think it could be faster.

But at that point, if we go a couple weeks or a month, and Iran fills up its storage, it will have no choice to do what it has forced Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, other countries to do. And that is reduce production at their fields. And they prefer not to do that.

CORNISH: What does all this mean for prices, though? I mean, we're just under 100 a barrel, but it doesn't really feel like markets are convinced this conflict is over.

MCNALLY: You know, I would tell you something: if you had told me we'd be going next to day 50 of the largest oil disruption in history, and the gasoline, the pump price on average would be closer to $4 a barrel than five, crude would be under 100, and the S&P would be making new highs, I think that's -- I think you're crazy, actually. And here we are.

I actually think financial markets, traders, investors, they're very optimistic. And they want to believe this nightmare, which they did not expect and can't believe is happening, is going to end soon.

And President Trump has been effective at sort of leveraging that optimism. And so, when he says a deal is around the corner, we're making progress, the markets buy it.

Now, look it: those of us who watch the oil market, there's something called the price of real oil, like liquid, physical oil. That is much higher in the world.

But the price that we all see in the financial markets, and the futures markets, and the futures markets for equities and themselves, they, Audie, actually embody enormous optimism that this will be over soon.

CORNISH: OK. I love the optimism for them, because they're making a lot of money on each of these barrels.

I want to go back to a graph that shows American gas prices, where people are feeling slightly less optimistic.

MCNALLY: Right.

CORNISH: I don't think I have to get into the science of this, because that red line is just up. It's a big Hill. And help us understand, for people at home who are worried that it's not going to just be better soon, which is what you're saying the markets and Trump believe.

MCNALLY: Right. Well, so, look, if we are about to have this ceasefire and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, it's all about the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Nothing else matters for the pump price this summer Americans will face.

Now, there are reports that we could be near a deal where Iran would allow those ships to reflow. Those fields could start. If that happens, then this summer, I think it's right. We could see gas prices start to follow crude oil prices lower.

It will take a while, months, to bring all those fields back, but we'll be past the worst of it.

The question is, is the optimism warranted? Are we really that close? Iran's only leverage over President Trump is grabbing that oil artery and squeezing it hard. And we're not convinced.