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Trump Gives July 4th Speech After Storm Delays; Forty-Minute Massive Fireworks Display Lights Up D.C. Sky; Storms And Severe Heat Disrupt July 4th Events On The East Coast; Fifty-One People Treated For Heat-Related Ailments At D.C. July 4th Event; Extreme Heat Causes Passenger Train To Derail In Virginia; New York Bridge Gets Stuck In Up Position Due To Extreme Heat; Heat, Storms, Impact July 4th Celebrations Across The Country; Iranians Mourn Death Of Slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei; Trump To Attend NATO Summit In Turkey This Week. Trump Delivers 40-Minute Late-Night Speech In DC; The Battle For November: Which Senate Seats Are Likely To Flip?; Pope Visit To Migrant Gateway Island Delivers Global Message. Aired 6-7a ET

Aired July 05, 2026 - 06:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[06:00:28]

BRAD SMITH, CNN ANCHOR: Welcome to CNN THIS MORNING. Here's what you need to know to start your Sunday morning. Extreme heat and storms delayed but did not stop the July celebrations across the country for the fourth. A look at how Americans celebrated the country's 250th anniversary and President Trump's message to the country, coming up.

And happening now, Iranians are once again gathering to mourn former supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The defiant message coming from Tehran this morning.

And a bitter battle brewing for control of the Senate in the November midterms. And for the first time, CNN has a look at the states that are most likely to flip and what that means for the balance of power.

Plus, a close call over the skies of Chicago.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED PILOT: Tower, we just had a firework hit our plane. Delta 1076. We're continuing.

UNIDENTIFIED AIR TRAFFIC CONTROL: Roger.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

SMITH: It is Sunday, July 5th. Thank you so much for joining us. I'm Brad Smith in for Victor Blackwell.

Concerts, parades, fireworks lit up the cities in all 50 states for America's 250th birthday. In Washington after a storm related delay of nearly two hours, President Trump took center stage to cap off the day's events. The president devoted much of his speech to America's history and its strength. He touted past U.S. military victories and added some of the military operations initiated by his administration into the mix.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Our rise to being the world's strongest and most powerful nation was no accident of history. We rebuilt our military in my first term. We use it a little bit in our, actually, I should say third term, but I won't do that because I don't want any controversy. But we use it and we've had tremendous success.

You look at Venezuela, you look at Iran. We wiped it out. Wiped out their military. Americans crossed the Great Plains, scaled the Rockies, tamed the wilderness and conquered the frontier and built the empire. It's called the empire of liberty.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SMITH: Trump also thanked U.S. heroes and veterans who fought for America's freedom. He brought out three veterans from World War II, calling them truly the greatest generation.

While the president largely stuck to his script, he did get political in his remarks. He brought up communism multiple times throughout his speech, and he also argued for the passage of the Save America Act, his proposed bill that would overhaul federal elections.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Today, our country is winning again, and we're winning like never before. America is back, and we want to keep America great, and we will do so by approving the Save America Act, which means all voters must show voter I.D. All voters must provide a little thing called proof of citizenship. And there will be no mail in ballots except for illness, disability, military deployment, or travel.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SMITH: So following Trump's remarks, a massive 40-minute firework display took place over D.C. skies. The fireworks launched from 10 different sites across Washington, D.C., and may have set a world record for the largest firework display in history.

Errol Louis joins us now -- well, later on to break down the big themes in Trump's address. Really excited for that conversation, clearly. That address to the nation and the reactions from lawmakers going to be broken down in that conversation.

Staying with America's 250th anniversary, it was a historic milestone, years in the making, but the celebrations faced major disruptions from blistering triple digit heat during the day to severe evening thunderstorms that actually temporarily evacuated the National Mall. Michael Yoshida is in Washington, D.C. with the details on how the weather affected yesterday's celebrations.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE) MICHAEL YOSHIDA, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Gates opened at the Salute to America event on the National Mall around 5:00 p.m., Saturday, despite the intense heat.

[06:05:04]

A severe thunderstorm forced an evacuation just a couple hours later. Delayed but not deterred, President Donald Trump still took to the stage for a late night speech.

TRUMP: This is the big day. We want July fourth. We're not looking for July something else, because this is the 250th anniversary of the declaration of independence. Nothing like it.

YOSHIDA (voice-over): Trump's celebration for America's 250th anniversary promised a record breaking firework show.

STEPHEN VITALE, CEO, PYROTECNICO: We're going for the world record, but most importantly, we want the show to be memorable and esthetically beautiful for the crowd and something that people will remember forever.

YOSHIDA (voice-over): Over the last two days, a fierce heat wave also forced organizers to alter or cancel events in the capital and in communities all along the East Coast. In Washington, D.C., the opening of the Great American State Fair was postponed by two hours, Saturday. Friday, it had to temporarily shut down due to the heat.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We were told that they were closing it down due to the heat. A lot of people were passing out.

YOSHIDA (voice-over): First responders were on hand to quickly respond to any emergencies.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Fourth of July is typically our busiest day of the year, where we run five to 600 calls a day. I think we're going to be over 1,000 this weekend.

YOSHIDA (voice-over): The heat is also causing unhealthy air quality in some cities. On top of that, the extended fireworks displays will likely only make the air quality worse.

In Washington, I'm Michael Yoshida, reporting.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SMITH: All right. Thank you, Michael. We've also learned that more than 50 people were treated for heat related illnesses at the Freedom 250 celebration. And take a look at this. D.C. metro officials, they say that the heat caused this train to derail. Extreme heat can sometimes cause metal rails to buckle. No one was injured and all of the passengers were able to evacuate safely.

Now in upstate New York, the heat is blamed for causing a bridge to get stuck in the up position. The heat caused the metal to expand to the point that the bridge could no longer close. Fireboats were brought in to hose it down to try to cool it off and get it working again.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

CAPT. MICHAEL KICK, BUFFALO FIRE DEPARTMENT (on the phone): We were out for about five hours, flowing water from the Buffalo River onto the Michigan Street Bridge in an attempt to cool it down. I estimate that we threw probably about 3 million gallons of water at the bridge while we were operating.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

SMITH: CNN meteorologist Allison Chinchar with us now to break down more of this. I mean, things finally starting to cool down a little bit, it seems, hopefully.

ALLISON CHINCHAR, CNN METEOROLOGIST: Yes. And even a couple places, believe it or not, may actually get below average in a few days from now. So you just got to get through really the kind of this last day of the heat in some areas for today, but vastly different than yesterday.

Now, we do still have several ongoing showers and thunderstorms across much of the country. And you can see they're really scattered. We've got some just to the east of Chicago. We've got other areas across the Central Plains, portions of the northeast that are also looking at some few areas of showers and thunderstorms.

The main targets for today, it's going to be kind of a U-shaped here, where were looking at some of those showers and thunderstorms. It starts across portions of Texas and Oklahoma, stretches down through the southeast and then up into the mid-Atlantic and northeast. That's where you're going to have the best chance for those showers and thunderstorms.

Damaging winds will be the primary concern. We could have some large hail, especially closer into the plains, and a lot of frequent lightning. So anybody that still has some outdoor activities left for today will have to contend with that.

Here's a look at the forecast radar. Again, even as we go through the afternoon, you'll start to see more and more of them firing up across the Midwest, the southeast, southern plains, those kind of areas. They will continue through the evening and overnight timeline. So again, these are going to be ongoing, really kind of those typical summertime pop up showers and thunderstorms. They fire up, they move out, you know, and then you get a little bit of a break afterwards.

Speaking of break, we are finally going to get one from the heat. Take a look at this. Say Washington, D.C., for example. Keep in mind the average high this time of year is 89. We have been well above that the last few days. We will be pretty close to that starting tomorrow.

And then by the time we get to the middle of the week, look at this 84. We're actually about five degrees below normal for a change. And that's going to be the case for areas of the mid-Atlantic, the northeast. But the opposite is going to take place in the Midwest. We're going to start to see those temperatures rebounding back up again after maybe about a day or two of a little bit of a mini break. But I think at this point, we'll take it.

SMITH: All right. The I-95 corridor needs to hear this today.

CHINCHAR: Yes.

SMITH: Allison, thank you so much. Well, next up, a country in mourning. Iran's supreme leader is being laid to rest. We will explain what this means for negotiations with the U.S. moving forward.

Plus, fireworks weren't the only thing lighting up the night sky over the Brooklyn Bridge. Details after the break.

And we have some alarming cockpit audio. It was recorded when a Delta pilot reported that his plane was hit by fireworks. All that and more coming up.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:14:35]

SMITH: This morning in the Middle East, crowds in Iran have been turning out for the second day of the public funeral for their slain supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Now Iran's health ministry says an estimated 15 million mourners are expected to take part in the public farewell.

The supreme leader was killed by an Israeli strike on the first day of the joint U.S. Israeli war on Iran. His sons were seen weeping at his funeral, but Khamenei's successor, his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, has so far not been seen nor heard from today.

[06:15:08]

Let's go to CNN's Leila Gharagozlou with more. What have we seen? What have we watched play out as this nation is in mourning?

LEILA GHARAGOZLOU, CNN PRODUCER: Yes. So today is the second day of the public mourning ceremony. So, average Iranians can go and pay their respects. We've seen quite an influx of people into the capital city, Tehran, to pay their respects. And this crowd is expected to get even bigger ahead of tomorrow's procession through the city.

Now, we've seen a lot of outward displays of emotion and grief, which are very typical for Iranian funerals. So you're seeing a lot of images of people crying, praying, prostrating themselves, including leaders like the speaker of parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, and the president, Masoud Pezeshkian, just openly crying and showing their grief and emotion.

I think what's really important to understand about this is that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei wasn't just a head of state. He is a really important figure within the Shiite Islamic world. So, his passing is one that is spreading beyond just the borders of Iran and is much more emotional than it might have been if it was just a world leader. Now, we're expecting to have, after the processions tomorrow, the funeral move to other key cities, Qom being one of them, which is one of the epicenters of Iran's religious life. A lot of the seminaries are there. From there, they'll move to Karbala and Najaf in Iraq before ending in Mashhad, which is the ayatollah's home town.

We don't know whether we're going to see his son Mojtaba Khamenei, as you mentioned. He has not been seen since he took over as supreme leader. If we do see him, it's likely that it could be on Thursday, but even that is very up in the air. So, a lot more funeral processions to come over the next six days, and everyone's going to be waiting to see if we see the new supreme leader.

SMITH: All right. A lot to keep tabs on over those next several days here. Leila Gharagozlou, thank you so much.

Let's discuss this further with CNN military analyst and retired Air Force colonel Cedric Leighton. We also have CNN global affairs analyst Alex Plitsas joining us.

You know, as we think about what Leila was just laying out this next few several days here, there's going to be a lot for the U.S. to continue to watch as well as there are a lot of emotions that could play into talks that once again need to restart or at least get some more solid footing.

Colonel Leighton, I wonder how much this and the talks to end the war are ongoing. How does this public funeral mark a new phase, if any, at all?

COL. CEDRIC LEIGHTON (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, Brad, good morning. I think what it does is, you know, first of all, it's a necessary passage for the Iranians to go through. You know, the funerals are extremely important for them, not only from a political standpoint, but also, as Leila pointed out, from a cultural and a religious perspective. So, this is going to be a critical moment for the Iranians.

And one of the key things to watch is the fact that many people in these funeral processions are calling for revenge, and that could very well color the Iranian response to any U.S. diplomatic overtures, any U.S. military movements, and, frankly, any U.S. political and diplomatic movements. So that's going to be, I think, a critical element here.

And if that -- you know, if that colors the Iranian response, it could also signal a type of schism within the Iranians. Some of the Iranian leadership is going to be in favor of some type of accommodation with the U.S., and others are going to be much more hard line. And a funeral like this gives the hardliners a lot more strength, basically, and increases their position and their leverage in a situation of this type.

SMITH: Alex, I wonder what should we read into and not read into as well on the late supreme leader's son and successor, Mojtaba Khamenei's absence at the funeral at least so far to this juncture? ALEX PLITSAS, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: So, there are reports that have come out over the last several months that he was pretty severely wounded, potentially multiple surgeries on his arm. There could have been a prosthetic that was necessary for one of his legs, severe burns on his face. So, it's possible that this is due to the severe nature of the injuries that he sustained.

There was some questions for a while as to whether or not he was actually alive. But by and large, and speaking to a number of the GCC partners in the gulf and then to U.S. officials, the working theory now is that he is, in fact, alive and actively involved in state affairs, and this is likely due to his injuries.

SMITH: And so, Colonel Leighton, I wonder, as you were bringing up a moment ago, just to follow up on that, some of the mourners, they have expressed a desire for vengeance against the United States. What does this mean for U.S. national security threats, interests? How has all of that heightened as a result?

[06:20:02]

LEIGHTON: Well, certainly, I think increases at least -- potentially increases the threat level against U.S. forces especially in the Gulf region. But it also has implications worldwide. And Iran is very good at what we call asymmetric warfare. And what that means is, you know, it could be anything that is unconventional terrorist attacks that they sponsor through one of their proxies. Or it could mean cyber- attacks or a combination of those kinds of things.

And one of the key elements, you know, of those terrorist attacks, especially, would be potentially, and I hate to bring this up, but targeted assassinations of key officials, and that is something that they are actively talking about, at least in public. Whether or not they actually do that, of course, is a very different issue.

SMITH: Alex, it is notable as well that NATO made sure to send a public congratulations to the U.S. on the 250th anniversary of its independence. I mean, as all of these different factors are playing out on the world stage and with diplomacy and with all of the posturing, do you expect that to make any difference in smoothing over bad feelings that Trump has towards NATO members here? And is the strategy to tread lightly?

PLITSAS: I mean, it was appropriate for the alliance to send that message. And it was, I think, welcomed. But at the end of the day, the president has been aggravated with NATO partners and allies who he thought didn't come to his aid when he needed them during the war against Iran, even though it's been very clear for many of those allies that their own legal counsels have interpreted that there was no legal justification for their participation in strikes, let alone use of their bases in many cases.

So, that was part of the frustration. And then it's been since his first administration, the president's been pushing for NATO to take more responsibility, particularly the European allies for European security and seeing an increase in in spending on defense from three to five percent of GDP.

So, he's still pushing those allies to spend more and take more responsibility for security. He's also, you know, been on the opposite side of the equation in many cases with Ukraine at least this administration. So, there's been a lot of tension. But the most recent issues that really has been -- drew his ire has been their lack of participation in the Iran strikes.

SMITH: Colonel, what is the reality that we would actually see NATO allies spending more? And what is the reality, the truth regarding that which Trump has said and railed about NATO allies not spending enough to support NATO?

LEIGHTON: Yes. Well, really starting even before the Biden administration and the first Trump administration, NATO allies started to ramp up their defense spending. And it really reached a fever pitch, if you will, within the last decade or so. And in the Biden administration and also in this second Trump administration, NATO allies have actually increased their projected NATO defense spending.

There are two countries in particular, Poland and Lithuania, that are either close to the five percent or have exceeded the five percent threshold of GDP spending. So, what the president is talking about is basically old news. What he really needs to focus on is the fact that the United States has convinced all these NATO countries to spend a lot more. And that includes countries like Germany, which historically been limited in their capacities and as well as in their willingness to spend more on defense. But by 2035, Germany will approach that threshold of five percent GDP.

We have to keep in mind, the U.S. only spends at the moment, at least 2.8 percent of its GDP on defense. So, there's a big difference in what we're asking the NATO countries to do and what we're willing to do ourselves.

SMITH: Alex, one of the ways that we've seen Trump in this 2.0 version of his presidency now, in the administration, really marked some of their wins, is how much spending other countries are willing to do into U.S. assets. For Turkey, for instance, there is a desire to buy F-35s from the U.S. How does that affect the NATO summit, especially in light of the adversarial relationship between Israel and Turkey?

PLITSAS: It's only gotten worse in recent years in terms of that adversarial relationship. I mean, if you speak to the Israelis, as I have over the last year or two, you really saw Iran as the long term strategic threat. And but now, due to some of the rhetoric that's been espoused by President Erdogan, if you speak to Israeli leaders, they see Turkey as a longer term strategic threat, which is obviously, you know, both odd and difficult as a NATO member and, you know, given tensions that have gone on.

The F-35 sale, as you know, Colonel Leighton has talked about many times, is really -- it had been controversial just given the fact that they hosted Russian air defense systems and other things. There was a significant, I think, tension about whether or not that should take place, you know, both within the State Department and the Pentagon to a certain extent.

It looks like that may move forward. The president has developed a much better relationship with President Erdogan, particularly as he assisted with the transition in Syria and really making sure that from his perspective there was another semi-autonomous Kurdish state inside of Syria and that the Syrian Arab forces really took over.

[06:25:04]

That's now the new government. So, he's really headed to the summit from what I was told by U.S. officials because President Erdogan asked him to. So, this was almost seen as a personal favor and a reflection of their relationship.

SMITH: Really valuable insights, both of you. Colonel Cedric Leighton and Alex Plitsas, thank you so much for joining us today.

LEIGHTON: Thanks, Brad.

SMITH: Well, next up, Paul Pelosi back in legal trouble. Why authorities say the former speaker's husband could face a hit and run charge. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

SMITH: Paul Pelosi could be facing a misdemeanor charge for a hit and run accident in California's wine country. Police say the 86-year-old husband of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi drove his convertible into a legally parked car on Friday, stopped briefly and then drove off.

He was found about a quarter of a mile away telling officers he wasn't sure what happened. He was not arrested and no one was hurt. Authorities say that Pelosi did not have alcohol in his system.

Firefighters in New York had to put out several small fires last night on the Brooklyn Bridge. The flames broke out at the end of the Macy's fireworks show. No one was injured and it's not clear what sparked the fires and police are not saying whether fireworks may have caused them.

And a frightening moment in the skies over Chicago during the Fourth of July celebrations. A Delta flight from Atlanta appears to have been struck by fireworks while landing at Midway Airport.

Listen to what the pilots told air traffic control.

(BEGIN AUDIO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We're just hoping it was just the mortar that went off underneath but definitely felt the big bang.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: There have been multiple reports as you can imagine. The city's aware. They said they would notify the Chicago police, but you know, I don't know what they'll do. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Southwest 223, just for your information the preceding Airbus said they were struck by a firework approximately 200 AGL.

(END AUDIO CLIP)

SMITH: Delta says the aircraft landed safely and is now being inspected. Authorities are looking into how fireworks may have gotten that close to planes approaching the airport.

Well, the President's promised Fourth of July rally speech took on a different tone than expected. It mostly stuck to scripts thanking veterans highlighting historic U.S. flags and wrapped it up by promising to take the country to new heights.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF UNITED STATES: This is only the dawn of the golden age of America and on this 250th Fourth of July we declare just as they did two and a half centuries ago that for our country and for our children and for the cause of liberty, we are going to take our country to new levels to levels not reached. We're going to make it bigger better stronger and we're going to love it even more.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SMITH: The President also used the moment to slam communism and tout his controversial Save America Act to overall federal elections.

Joining me now, we've got Spectrum News political anchor Errol Louis. He's also the host of The Big Deal with Errol Louis. Errol good to have you here with us today.

Let's just talk about the overall message here. He built this as a Trump rally but it was somewhat of a departure of his typical rally style speeches. What was your reading even if he did get into political topics? The main takeaway that anyone who was watching or listening or attending should have gotten from that speech.

ERROL LOUIS, POLITICAL ANCHOR, SPECTRUM NEWS: Good morning, Brad. It was a really a repeat of what he'd done the night before in front of Mount Rushmore and it combined you know 80 to 90 percent what you would expect on an occasion like this. Some words that hopefully will be echoing down through the ages trying to sort of meet the moment and rise to the occasion for something as momentous as the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence.

On the other hand, being Donald Trump he could not resist a chance to do a little bit of politics and a little bit of legislating and trying to sort of push for the legislation that he wants passed. And when he says he wants that Save America Act passed he combined it with a prediction that Republicans would win for the next hundred years if they got it passed.

And that takes us right into the realm of a very controversial piece of legislation that by the way is not likely to pass. I mean this was the President putting out his legislative wish list in the middle of what would have been a much bigger broader ceremony for most of us watching.

SMITH: Well, I mean well it's a day that ends in why. So of course, the Save America Act was going to be brought up by President Trump and he did that made the arguments. We should also note in the doubling down on that bill refusing to sign off on bipartisan legislation like the housing affordability overhaul bill as well until the Save America Act is passed.

But there's not wide ranging support. In fact, the House Speaker had to make sure that he was even amid some of the Republican infighting making sure that he was letting people go home early for vacation because there was so much disdain. And so, what is the reality moving forward. What does this mean for other legislation as well that can actually meaningful -- meaningful -- meaningfully help American households.

LOUIS: Well, it says something about Congress that as dysfunctional as it's been as troubled as it has been in this session they could get the housing bill passed. I mean that that there was in fact some support for it. The problem of course is that the Save America Act is the opposite of bipartisan legislation that it would require the kind of identification to vote that something an estimated 21 million Americans do not have, including 9 million women who may have changed their names after marriage or for other reasons. It's really just not a workable piece of legislation.

[06:35:17]

And, you know, the White House has just refused to accept that. Donald Trump has refused to accept that. But members of Congress, even big supporters of the President have said we just can't do this. We do not want to throw our elections into chaos. That starts to affect all of the members of Congress, by the way.

So even if they support the President, they don't necessarily want their own jobs to be at risk or thrown into the middle of a lot of confusion in the fall.

SMITH: You know, while we have you, Trump also took the opportunity to slam communism. I mean, we were talking in the break just about like who is praising communism right now. Trump continues to bring this up, an effort to kind of muddle that term with democratic socialism, which has seen some pretty marked wins going into the midterm elections in the Democratic primaries as well.

I want to play a quick clip of that for our viewers and then we'll get your reaction on the other side.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: America will never be a communist country. Won't happen. Communism is a loser and it always will be. The communist system is the opposite of the American system and the communist system has never worked. Our warriors did not fight communism on battlefields across the world only to have that menace rear its ugly head right back here in America. We're not going to let it happen.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SMITH: OK, so, Errol, I think I was in seventh grade social studies in Montgomery Middle School in New Jersey when we learned that communism is not socialism. What is Trump getting at here?

LOUIS: Well, he's suggesting, I think, Brad, that what the Republicans should run on is an all-out attack on the Democratic opponents that they have by calling them all communists. Now, that's not a very viable strategy, you know, because the polling clearly indicates, as well as, frankly, the results of a lot of recent elections, that people want paid sick leave. They want health care that they can afford. They want affordable groceries at the store.

And anybody who's trying to deliver that, which is kind of what Democrats are running on this season, that they're going to really be amenable to it. And you can try and brand it as communism or anything else. But the reality is it's just not likely to work. So this is Donald Trump making arguments from a prior generation.

You know, I'm old enough to remember the Soviet Union. And you would call anybody who was like left leaning. You could say, well, you're a fellow traveler or, you know, there'd be all these kind of insinuations and accusations. And it could move votes in some elections. But I don't think that's going to happen this year.

SMITH: All right. Old enough to remember, but still a lot of youth on you. Errol, thanks so much for taking the time.

LOUIS: Thanks, Brad.

SMITH: Well, next up, control of Congress is up for grabs.

Razor thin margins. Key states in play. How the fight for Congress is shaping up to be one of the toughest midterm battles ever.

And if you're heading out, remember, you can stream our show from anywhere in the U.S. right from the CNN app. You can also go to CNN.com/Watch.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[06:43:04]

SMITH: A live look at a quiet Capitol Hill this morning. This November will mark one of the hardest-fought midterm elections in U.S. history. The GOP has a razor-thin margin in the House and an advantage that is narrowing in the Senate. It's where data shows a number of states could flip.

Here's CNN's Arlette Saenz with more.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: The battle for control of the U.S. Senate is set to play out over nine states between now and November. And for the first time, CNN is ranking the list of states most likely to flip in this midterm election.

Now, Democrats need to flip four Republican-held seats and defend all of their own if they want to win the majority in November. And topping the list that we have is North Carolina, which is currently held by a Republican senator who is retiring. But the Democratic candidate, former Governor Roy Cooper, is giving the Democratic Party one of their best chances at flipping a Senate seat in November. He is facing off against Republican candidate Michael Whatley, a close ally of President Donald Trump. And if you take a look at polling, Cooper has -- is currently leading Whatley by seven points in a state where a Democratic senator has not won since 2008.

Now, coming in at number two, we move up north to Maine, a seat currently held by Republican Senator Susan Collins, who is running for her sixth term in office. She is facing off against the progressive Democratic candidate Graham Platner in a race where his campaign has been embroiled in a lot of controversies in recent months. But if you take a look at polling, this race is very competitive, and there is no clear leader in the contest at this point in the race. So that will be one to certainly watch heading into November.

Coming in at number three is the state of Michigan, which is currently held by a Democrat, retiring Senator Gary Peters. And the Democratic primary has been very competitive and contentious between three candidates. That includes the progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed, the moderate Congresswoman Haley Stevens and state Senator Mallory McMorrow.

[06:45:13]

This primary really captures a lot of the debates playing out within the Democratic Party at this moment in time, as we have seen in recent elections success from some progressive candidates. The question is whether that can also translate to a presidential battleground state. Whoever wins that primary on August 4th will face off against the Republican former Congressman Mike Rogers.

Now, coming in at four, five, and six are three states that are in deep red territory. There is Ohio, then Alaska, and then Iowa. Iowa, if you take a look at recent polling, there's no clear leader in that contest between Congresswoman Ashley Hinson and the Democratic candidate Josh Turek. The President's economic policies, like tariffs and the fallout from the war with Iran, is something that could play heavily in that contest.

Now, coming in at number seven is the state of Georgia. This is a battleground state that is currently held by Senator Jon Ossoff, the only Democratic senator running in a state where President Donald Trump won back in 2024. But Ossoff has proven to be a very strong fundraiser. He has this ability to have clips of his speeches go viral. And he's giving a lot of Democrats hope that they will be able to hold on to this state.

If you take a look at recent polling, he was up over his opponent, GOP opponent, Congressman Mike Collins, by 13 points, fueling some of the Democratic hopes in that state.

Coming in at number eight is the state of New Hampshire, which is currently in Democratic control. And at the bottom of our list, at number nine, is the state of Texas. This is a contest that's going to dominate a lot of the conversation heading into November, as Democrats do see some hope in James Talarico, who is facing off against Republican State Attorney General Ken Paxton, someone who has endured a lot of scandals in his state, but he has also survived those in his past political campaigns.

There's a lot of questions about whether Texas will actually come into play. And we will keep an eye on that as this race progresses. But right now, this list really serves as a snapshot of this moment in time, of where these races currently stand. And it could shift between now and November, as there are still four months to go in a very contentious and spirited fight for control of the U.S. Senate.

Arlette Saenz, CNN, Washington.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SMITH: Thank you, Arlette.

On America's Independence Day, the first American pope delivered a message far beyond the Vatican by his visit to a migrant gateway is drawing global attention.

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[06:52:19]

SMITH: Let's get a check of your top stories. Extreme heat and severe storms delayed but did not stop Fourth of July celebrations around the country.

The nation's capital. You saw crowds there pack the National Mall to watch what was billed as the largest fireworks display in history. President Trump spoke at the event touting American strength and warning against the threat of communism.

And new this morning, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to visit the U.S. to meet with President Trump as soon as next Monday. That is according to an Israeli source. The two leaders have not met in person since the start of the war with Iran.

And Tyler Robinson, the man accused of fatally shooting conservative activist Charlie Kirk, will be in court this week. Prosecutors are expected to use the multi-day hearing to preview some of their evidence against Robinson. Kirk's wife and family are expected to attend.

This morning, as Pope Leo leads prayers at the Vatican, his July 4th message is still resonating.

The first American pope spent the holiday on the Italian island of Lampedusa, one of the main gateways for migrants crossing into Europe. Thousands arrive there each year, and many are lost at sea. The Pope honored those who died trying to make the crossing, visiting a migrant cemetery on the island.

For more on the significance of this visit, we bring in CNN's Christopher Lamb in Italy.

Extremely significant from the first American pope here, Christopher.

CHRISTOPHER LAMB, CNN VATICAN CORRESPONDENT (on-camera): Yes, a very strong message from Pope Leo during this July 4th independence weekend.

The Pope emphasizing the importance of protecting and welcoming migrants, not just in Europe, but also in the U.S. The Pope from Lampedusa sending a message to Americans, calling on them to welcome immigrants with compassion and generosity, pointing to the history the United States has of welcoming migrants.

Now, whilst in Lampedusa, he really sought to highlight the tragic human face of the migrants crisis, going to a cemetery where there was a grave for a six-month-old who died in a shipwreck in 2020, and highlighting the need to welcome and protect migrants in a comprehensive manner in Europe.

Now, the Pope did find time to celebrate July 4th. When he got back to Rome, he went to the residence of the U.S. ambassador to the Holy See, where he spent time with the ambassador's family, and we're told was given some homemade apple pie, a U.S. soccer team t-shirt, and a baseball. Brad.

SMITH: Christopher Lamb, thank you so much. A lot to continue to track as we're listening to every single word as well from the Pope. Appreciate it.

[06:55:08]

There is much more ahead in the next hour of "CNN This Morning Weekend," including President Trump's message to the country during a late-night address to celebrate the 4th of July.

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SMITH: Welcome back to "CNN This Morning." Here is what is new this morning.

America's 250th birthday was a hot and stormy one. But that didn't stop the show from going on.

[07:00:04]

Ahead of what was billed as the largest fireworks display ever, President Trump --