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Turkey Launches Military Offensive in Syria, U.S. allies at Risk; U.S. Takes Custody of Some High-Profile ISIS Prisoners; Two Giuliani Colleagues Arrested; Trump Warns McConnell about Disloyal Republicans; Extinction Rebellion Protesters Demonstrate in London City Airport; Two- Thirds of American Birds at Risk of Extinction. Aired 11a-12:00p ET
Aired October 10, 2019 - 11:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[11:00:00]
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MAX FOSTER, CNN LONDON CORRESPONDENT(?): Smoke billows at the Syrian- Turkish border as the military offensive reaches its second day.
NICK PATON WALSH, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: What you're seeing is the skyline of the town, which was until recently or may still be
held by the Syrian Kurds as Turkey has launched an enormous military invasion.
ARWA DAMON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT(?): President Erdogan is not mincing his words on this. He's been very decisive and very
insistent that he's going to continue this military operation.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Invading and threatening all at the same time.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE (through translator): 109 terrorists have been killed since the beginning of the operation.
TRUMP: Now the Kurds are fighting for the land. They didn't help us in the Second World War.
DAMON(?): These people are now fleeing to try to get to safety but they don't know exactly where safety might be.
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-SC): If he follows through with this, it will be the biggest mistake of his presidency.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE (voice-over): Live from CNN Abu Dhabi, this is CONNECT THE WORLD with Becky Anderson.
BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST: Well, all that this hour plus breaking news out of Washington to do with President Trump's personal lawyer. Details on
that are just ahead.
First, right now, fighting along the Turkish-Syrian border is ramping up as Turkey goes after Kurdish forces as part of its offensive into Syria and
Kurdish forces begin to strike back.
This as Turkey's president threatens Europe to back off its criticism of the campaign or else face a flood of millions of refugees.
And a U.S. official tells CNN this could go further than initially expected. The current assessment is Turkey aims to, quote, "clear a
substantial stretch of the Syrian border south of Turkey."
Well, we have reporters on the ground on both sides of that border. Clarissa Ward is in northern Syria. Nick Paton Walsh on the Turkish side.
Clarissa, you've been on the ground since this offensive began.
What have you seen and heard?
All right. Sounds like we've lost Clarissa for the moment. Let's see if we can get her back.
Nick, it is unclear at present the scope and scale of this offensive but what we do know is that the Turks say they have successfully struck a
number of what they believe are significant targets.
What more are you hearing?
WALSH: Well, yes, the official line is 181 targets hit and 109 of what Turkey calls terrorists killed. You're hearing behind me here what we've
been hearing all day, really, which is the artillery shelling, often hard at times to know which direction it's going.
On three occasions certainly it's been headed in this direction. One instance in the center of the town we're standing in here on the Turkish
side, injuring six or seven people. Although, a slightly confusing government statement has since emerged, which, in fact, said that two
people had been killed, one an infant, in two separate locations.
It is these two locations we're hearing are the focus of Turkish military assaults here. I'm hearing from a U.S. official -- and you can see far in
the distance the flash of what looks like further artillery strikes moving in, three or four now.
I understand from a U.S. official with a reasonably good grasp of this situation that their assessment is they'll begin here and move all the way
down, about a two hours' drive further down the border.
You can hear the evening call to prayer here, which seems to have coincided with a slight uptick on what we're seeing along that skyline. That is the
Tell Abyad, which the Syrian Kurds have held, that they took off ISIS, that American troops have pulled out of. It's been the subject of some of the
fiercest shelling so far.
A lot of those plumes of smoke, we understand from our colleagues on the other side of the border, are, in fact, possibly from tire fires set by the
Syrian Kurds to obscure the vision of Turkish military forces.
But it is clear that there are Turkish forces on the ground inside. We've seen ourselves a dozen personnel carriers moving towards the border. That
came after last night's announcement that the ground invasion had, in fact, begun by Turkish military forces. But we don't know what exactly is the
Turkish plan.
[11:05:00]
WALSH: I have to say, it looks significantly larger and broader in scope than some have perhaps thought might have been. That Trump phone call
seemed to give them the green light but it looks bigger than that.
And President Erdogan, despite being criticized for this by pretty much anybody, you would normally expect to be Turkey's friend, major European
powers, Israel, a lot of people saying this is a bad idea, including -- those are the words of Donald Trump himself.
He's emboldened certainly domestically and has said if the European Union doesn't get their act together, paraphrasing there, and stop calling this
an invasion, then he might send the 3.6 million Syrian refugees he says he's clearing parts of the Syrian territory behind me to rehouse, to
resettle, that he might send those civilian refugees up to Europe.
Remnants of the scene in 2015 where there was a massive migration north. So a large event we're seeing here; It may well take weeks, if not possibly
months. And as dusk falls, it's quite clear that both sides are using heavy weapons to try and establish some degree of authority, although, it's
obvious the second largest army in NATO will most likely prevail behind us.
ANDERSON: I'm going to stop you there for the moment. I'm going to come back to you, Nick. We've been struggling to get in touch with Clarissa on
the line. I believe that we've got her now.
You've been on the ground for some 24 hours now.
What have you seen and heard?
CLARISSA WARD, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: We spent most of the day on the other side of the border from where Nick was -- is, I should
say. We were seeing, as you heard Nick describe there, a steady stream of Turkish strikes coming into the town.
It was pretty much deserted for the most part, shops shuttered, people had left. We did find a small protest, if you can believe it, at the Turkish
border. A group of Kurds wanted to (INAUDIBLE). But it didn't take long for (INAUDIBLE).
ANDERSON: Just going to give you these pictures for a while and just see whether we can get Clarissa back. It's really important we get this
reporting. It's clearly very difficult for her and her team to establish communications. All right. Going to leave it there for a moment, get you
back to Nick Paton Walsh, who's on the other side of the border.
Nick, as we talk, if you can just step away from your camera, if you will, and have Scott just home in a little bit on what is happening behind. I
know it's got very, very dark. I don't know if we can see anything better on that border.
But Nick, the overwhelming concern being voiced in Washington and in capitals around Europe, not only the idea of this sort of, you know, the
opening of the floodgates as far as these Syrian refugees are concerned but also these ISIS fighters, detained in the very areas that the Turks are
attacking, the idea that they could break out or simply walk free and cause untold chaos.
What are you hearing and seeing on the ground about whether that's a realistic concern at this point?
WALSH: Yes, I think it certainly is a realistic concern but it depends who you speak to. A European intelligence official I spoke to said he thought
there was a major risk of a breakout of those ISIS detainees in the event that we saw the Syrian Kurds distracted by Turkish invasion.
Well, you've got that happening right in front of you. The fact I can't tell you much about those detention facilities because they're so far away
is part of the problem with the Trump promise, that he says Turkey will take those ISIS detainees into their custody.
But they're a very, very, very long way away. I don't think anybody understands how the Syrian Kurds, during a battle with the Turkish military
here, would hand over those high-value detainees to Turkish authorities. That's a pipe dream. It simply isn't going to happen.
What we are hearing, though, is -- I've heard certainly from one U.S. official that those facilities are so far mostly secure but there have been
enduring concerns that if there's a large move of Syrian Kurds away to fight the Turkish incursion, that could cause those facilities to
deteriorate.
We heard late last night that two of the more high-profile foreign fighters being held in those Syrian-Kurdish jails, known as the Beetles, two British
citizens accused of the torture and mistreatment of Western hostages held by ISIS, that they are, in fact, very swiftly, after months of uncertainty
about what could happen to them, they're very swiftly being moved into U.S. military custody and may well already be in Iraq on their way to the U.S.
for trial or judicial proceedings there.
So certainly the most high profile being dealt with quickly.
[11:10:00]
WALSH: The question is what happens to the dozens of other high-end ISIS leaders?
What happens to them?
And whether or not it is possible for the coalition, stretched as they are, to maintain the security of those facilities. They have a saying, as well
as the Kurdish forces that also hold them.
Let me just explain what you're seeing here as the sun goes down. There are three red lights flashing, it seems in sync, one after the other, along
the horizon. Unclear if you can see that. That, to me, doesn't look like fighting. It looks like some sort of mechanized -- something is moving
across there. Unclear what that signifies.
But since dusk has fallen, we heard the clatter of what sounded like heavy machine gunfire. This may be the beginning of some broader Turkish move
into Tell Abyad. You heard from Clarissa that there weren't that many people left in the city but certainly, this seems to be the key objective
of Turkish military at this early stage of their campaign.
As I say, it looks like, according to one U.S. official's assessment, they could well be going from here, two hours' drive all the way down the
border, clearing all of that territory. That's just the beginning of the scope of what this may be.
Somebody said to me, a U.S. official, this could be the whole stretch, the whole area of the border which the Syrian Kurds currently control.
Turkey's rationale is simple. They're looking at this in the longer term. They're wondering whether they can possibly tolerate the idea of the Syrian
Kurds, who they say are allied to the Turkish Kurds, who they and the U.S. consider to be a terrorist group, whether they can have a long-term
accommodation with them as a neighbor.
Clearly Turkish officials believe that's just insane as a concept and they want to use the territory which the Syrian Kurds have taken since they
pushed ISIS back to rehouse the millions of Syrian refugees inside Turkey who, frankly, the Turkish say originally lived in some of those areas.
Well, not all of them did. A lot of them came from different parts of the country but are certainly mostly Sunni Arab Syrians, who consider these
areas more familiar to them than certainly Turkey.
Turkey has a longer strategy here. There is certainly, I think, fatigue, the large presence of Syrian refugees inside Turkey. That may be one of
the motivations behind President Erdogan. But today, utterly emboldened. No sign of the international criticism causing them to slow.
As you're seeing nightfall here, the sky is clearly still burning. The real question is what the situation will lead to when the sun rises again,
Becky.
ANDERSON: Yes, Nick, you were referring as we talked a little earlier about the concern of ISIS fighters breaking out these detention centers,
loosely termed, of course, or simply walking out, as these SDF fighters come under fire from the Turkish military.
We were talking about these British ISIS fighters nicknamed the Beetles, two of whom have been picked up by the U.S. I know you interviewed members
of this group in the past.
How significant is it that two of these guys have been taken into custody and what do we know about the others?
WALSH: Well, the other two, one is in Turkish custody, one is dead. The one who's dead is Jihadi John and was killed by a drone strike. So these
are the two most, I think it's fair to say, prominent ISIS foreign fighters to some degree that are still surviving, partly because of the accusations
against them of being involved in the torture and mistreatment of Western hostages, some of whom were murdered very publicly and gruesomely.
These are men who I've interviewed twice. The first time in 2018, one of the first interviews they gave, in which frankly they were very cocky, very
sure of themselves, very sure of their rights as interviewees, whether they wanted to consent to being spoken to or not.
They did consent and talk at great length about how they didn't want to talk about what they had and hadn't done. Fast forward about 18 months
later and the story was very different.
Remotely, we conducted an interview with two men, who were clearly broken, frankly, by the time they'd spent often in solitary confinement in Syrian
Kurdish jails. They, in short, confessed to some things, confessed to assisting in the negotiation of ransoms with some of the Western ISIS
hostages.
They didn't confess to any violence, which is what they're accused of. They said they had nothing to do and didn't know much about the murders.
Take of that what you will. They're still facing judicial proceedings in the United States very soon because of accusations of torture against those
Western hostages.
But they simply wanted, I think, to make some sort of confession in the hope that would possibly lead them to have a change in circumstance,
anything other than the sort of state of suspended animation they were in.
But a sign of how badly this is going and how concerned U.S. officials are about what's going to happen to these ISIS detainees. They've almost
overnight been whisked out of the country ending months of legal wrangling about what could and couldn't be done on their way to the United States --
Becky.
[11:15:00]
ANDERSON: Nick Paton Walsh is on the Turkish side of the Turkish-Syrian border. These pictures that you are seeing -- there he is -- from his
cameraman, giving you a very good indication of what people in that area and south of the border are seeing this hour.
This is CNN. We'll be right back with the latest on U.S. politics, including the developing news of two men connected to Donald Trump's
personal lawyer who've been arrested. Back after this.
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UNIDENTIFIED MALE (voice-over): This is CNN breaking news.
ANDERSON: And some breaking news for you out of Washington this hour. Two men, who are associates of Donald Trump's personal lawyer, Rudy Giuliani,
and who gave money to Mr. Trump's fundraising committee, have been arrested on campaign finance charges.
Now the two are connected to efforts to dig up dirt in Ukraine on Joe Biden. The men are expected in court in about three hours' time. Two
other men are named in the indictment. One of them has not yet been arrested. CNN legal analyst Ross Garber will join me in a moment. First
to Kaitlan Collins.
What do we know?
KAITLAN COLLINS, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Essentially, these are two men who Rudy Giuliani has said, yes, they are his clients. They were
aiding him in these efforts to push Ukraine to investigate the Bidens, something that's been confirmed, that we know.
Of course, they were arrested at an airport in Washington as they were attempting to leave the country; though, it's unclear where, on these
campaign finance violations charges.
We do know that even though the White House isn't reacting, we are getting reaction from a pro-Trump super PAC that they made a donation to. These
two men are on the board of this energy company. They're the owners of it.
They made a six-figure donation to a pro-Trump super PAC in May 2018, a donation that, we should note, later prompted an FEC complaint alleging
essentially they had violated some campaign finance laws.
We're hearing today from a spokesperson for that pro-Trump super PAC, America First Action, saying that they did prompt that complaint and it was
also involved in some ongoing litigation in Florida, that they put that donation from them, the six figures, about $325,000, in a separate bank
account.
They say they have not used that money yet and they're not going to until this has been resolved.
[11:20:00]
COLLINS: So essentially, they're trying to distance themselves from the legal troubles surrounding this now that these two men have been arrested.
We should note that pro-Trump super PAC employs a lot of former White House employees, including the spokesperson who gave us that statement. That's
Kelly Sadler, who used to work here in the White House in the communications office, but also, the former small business administrator
Linda McMahon is also part of that pro-Trump super PAC.
There's also another connection for the White House here. John Dowd is the attorney for these two men. John Dowd used to be on the president's legal
team until he resigned in, I believe, May of 2018.
ANDERSON: Thank you, Kaitlan.
Ross, I know you've read this entire indictment. Never easy to digest documents like this for those of us who are not lawyers. Please help us
out here. Break down what you've learned, as it were, in bite-size pieces.
ROSS GARBER, CNN LEGAL ANALYST: So these two men who were arrested are key figures in the House probe of the Ukraine issue. And we're still sort of
going through the indictment. But these men have been demanded to testify before the House.
They're obviously not going to do that, at least any time soon now. And as Kaitlan reported, they were reported to have funneled information through
Rudy Giuliani, the president's lawyer and also at the same time funneled funds from foreign nationals to U.S. campaigns and campaign-related
organizations, which is illegal under U.S. law.
And also, according to the indictment, these men were advocating for the removal of the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. So these are very, very key
figures. And we're still sort of piecing out the implications of this indictment. But one thing is it may in the short term make it harder for
the House of Representatives to do a complete investigation.
ANDERSON: Why?
GARBER: Well, because certainly these guys aren't testifying anytime soon. They're now in custody. Even if they weren't in custody, because they're
in such criminal jeopardy, they're probably not going to testify.
It may also make it less likely that others will come and volunteer to testify because these two men are so critical to the investigation and
because they've been indicted.
And the existence of a criminal probe often makes it more difficult for congressional investigators to get people to cooperate because they're
concerned about not being involved in the criminal probe.
The final thing is, when there's a parallel criminal case, often congressional investigators defer to the criminal investigators because
Congress doesn't want to get in the middle of and interfere with a criminal investigation. So this is all playing out very rapidly but it does seem
consequential.
ANDERSON: Yes, fascinating. I asked you to break it down into words of one syllable, as it were and you did. Thank you for that.
Kaitlan, as the White House tries to fend off the Democrats' impeachment inquiry, a source telling CNN the president has been calling the most
powerful man in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, Republican, of course, demanding loyalty from Republicans and threatening to ramp up his attacks
if they don't comply.
Look, I know that Congress is out. They're not back until next week. So it's difficult, really, to get a proper steer on who's thinking what and
why.
But how significant is this, this ratcheting up of concern by Donald Trump, voicing it to the man who's protected him for so long effectively in the
Senate?
COLLINS: Essentially the president is lashing out. He's frustrated by what Democrats are doing. He's calling on them to end this impeachment
inquiry. Of course, his main person on Capitol Hill he's reaching out to is the Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell, of course.
The president, though, his demand for loyalty has stemmed long before this impeachment fight began. The president has always been mistrustful of a
lot of Senate Republicans whose lives he's made very complicated with statements he's made.
Essentially, the president isn't completely trustworthy of him. So that is really where we stand here. As far as back here at the White House, where
they are, right now what they're deciding is who it is that's going to be running point on this impeachment defense strategy.
Some people say it's the president's son-in-law, Jared Kushner. Some say it's the acting chief of staff, Mick Mulvaney, who proved his power the
other day by bringing in Trey Gowdy, a friend of his, to be the president's outside counsel.
[11:25:00]
COLLINS: Then, of course, there are most people who say, no, it's the president himself who's in charge.
ANDERSON: To both of you, thank you. That is the very latest on impeachment.
Next up, who wins, who loses?
We're not talking impeachment here. Turkey's offensive has major geopolitical implications for the region. That's the region we're in here,
the Middle East. We discuss what it means for capitals from Washington to Moscow and beyond, joining the dots for you on what is a major, major
global story, after this.
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ANDERSON: Welcome back. You're watching CONNECT THE WORLD. I'm Becky Anderson for you, 28 minutes past 7:00 here in Abu Dhabi. This is our
Middle East broadcasting hub.
This is a recap of the latest developments regarding Turkey's offensive in Syria. Damascus now says it will fight what it calls the Turkish
aggression with all legitimate means.
At the same time, Turkish President Erdogan is pressing the E.U. to stop criticizing the operation. Otherwise, he says, he may, I'll paraphrase,
open the floodgates, release more than 3 million Syrian refugees into the E.U.
Mr. Erdogan also says more than 100 of what he calls terrorists have been killed since the operation was launched on Wednesday.
Look, I don't think I have to tell you that this is a very important area geopolitically.
[11:30:00]
ANDERSON: And Turkey's offensive will create winners and losers. Depending on your prism, potential winners are Russia and President Putin;
the Syrian president, Bashar al Assad; Iran and arguably ISIS.
The losers, well, the first is obvious, of course, the Syrian Kurds. Also potentially key U.S. allies in Europe and Israel. Let me explain why.
President Trump's abrupt lurch to withdraw U.S. forces out of Turkey's way in northern Syria has many people say resulted an immediate threat for
Israel. That's because it opens up a route from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Tehran's proxies in Lebanon.
Well, let me bring in -- there's a lot to discuss here, of course. Standing by is CNN's Nick Paton Walsh at the Syrian-Turkish border. Fred
Pleitgen is also with us out of Moscow. Vali Nasr, a good friend of this show, former senior adviser in the State Department, all with us this
evening.
So let's crack on, gentlemen.
Nick, I've just laid out where we believe we see some potential winners and losers in this. Your thoughts at this point, briefly.
WALSH: I have to say, I don't see many winners here. Yes, you're right, Vladimir Putin stands to potentially fit into the gap left by the U.S.
presence here. We'll see their absence with his expanding influence.
But they already had kind of a backstop on the Mediterranean along the sea as their friendship with the Syrian regime allowed. Of course, they will
potentially try and move into any areas which the Syrian Kurds request their assistance in.
And of course, their increasing partnership with Turkey means they may be able to gain from the Turkish gains well. So when the U.S. pulls out,
you'll see Moscow swiftly move back in.
Turkey potentially stands to lose here. Of course, they will militarily prevail as much as they wish. But they'll likely be left with something of
a lengthy insurgency on their southern flank from the Syrian Kurds, who are well practiced in urban warfare after four years or so of it against ISIS,
a lot of it with American backing.
The Americans, clearly a loss here that's substantial. Hard, really, to characterize how symbolic this may be for the notion of American leadership
in the region and American hegemony.
It reminds me of Barack Obama's decision not to enforce his red line in Syria when chemical weapons were used. That seemed to tip the balance of
how much readiness there was in the U.S.' mentality to intervene in the east.
Here we have a president who's had a phone call with the Turkish president, come up with a decision, gone one direction, pulled troops back, found a
lot of opposition to that move in his very own tight circle but is still moving ahead with it. So yes, extraordinary to see how this is rechanging
the balance, frankly, geopolitically.
ANDERSON: And briefly, because I want to get a good discussion going here, Fred, perspective from Russia and Russia's potential gains out of this,
explain.
FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think there's several things. On the one hand, it's no secret the Russians would
be quite happy to have the U.S. not fully withdraw from Syria because that's not what they're doing but certainly give up some of their positions
in Syria.
The Russians have long said they believe that the U.S. should get out of Syria because they think the U.S. is there illegally. But I think that
Nick is absolutely right. The Russians -- I wouldn't necessarily call them winners just yet but I would say they do stand to gain even more influence
than they've had before.
On the one hand, they've been fairly critical of this offensive, at least on the face of it. Of course, they share the same goal, at least on paper,
as the Assad government. They say the government of Syria, that Bashar al Assad should have control over all of Syria. They say that's their own
stated goal.
Nevertheless, their influence certainly stands to expand a great deal. I'll tell you why. It's because they have influence and they have
relations with all the groups that are now involved and could now be involved in any sort of effort to try to de-escalate the situation.
They have good relations currently with the government of President Erdogan, the Turks. They have good relations with the Assad government.
They also have very good relationships with these Kurdish groups.
I, myself, have been in Aleppo after the big battle that happened there and have seen those Kurdish formations together with Syrian government forces
and Russian forces, cooperating and even manning check points together.
Certainly it's the Russians right now that could forge some sort of way into diplomacy if that's what they chose to do. They certainly do have
inroads with all the partners that right now seem to be going to this large conflict as this offensive has started, Becky.
[11:35:00]
ANDERSON: Before the offensive started, you tweeted, quote, "Trump decision to abandon Kurds does not mean imminent Turkey invasion.
That depends on what Erdogan agrees to with Russia and Iran, adding that they are the new brokers.
We are 24 hours into what is a military offensive. Your perspective?
VALI NASR, AUTHOR AND DEAN OF JOHNS HOPKINS SCHOOL OF ADVANCED INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: Well, we don't know what agreements have been cast
between Erdogan, the Iranians and the Russians.
Largely, I would say to the points that were made, Iran is a clear winner. The Iranians did not want an independent or autonomous Kurdish region in
northern Syria. They have their own Kurdish issue. They don't that want example.
The Iranians don't want an American militia in Syria, which effectively the Kurds were. Everybody has their militia in Syria. Now the Americans have
given up their militia. That's a victory for them. If Erdogan ends up in a prolonged insurgency, so be it. Iran is happy with that.
In fact, a clash between Damascus and Erdogan over northeastern Syria is to Iran's benefit because it would make Assad continuously reliant on Iran.
But more importantly, President Trump's decision has created a crisis of confidence among America's closest allies in the region -- Israel, Saudi
Arabia, UAE, Bahrain -- that the United States cannot be relied on, that the president may make very quick decisions, quixotic decisions and, in
fact, he may very well, you know, make a deal with Iran down the road.
And in the larger scheme of things of what's going on in this region, they're going to -- the region is going to read what happened in Syria
essentially as America is not committed to following its policies in the region.
So they're sitting very pretty. I think the Russians and Iranians will try to negotiate and after the initial phase of this incursion has happened,
after the Syrian forces have been defanged, then the question becomes about what will be the settlement for northeastern Syria. And they hold all the
cards now.
ANDERSON: Stateside joining us, we have senior fellow at the Middle East Institute Ambassador Robert Ford.
Much of the world quick to condemn Turkey, including Saudi Arabia and many in this region here in the UAE. The ministry of foreign affairs says the
aggression is an unacceptable assault on a, quote, "brotherly Arab state."
We've also, as we were just discussing, had these deep concerns from the Israeli -- the former U.S. ambassador to Israel, Dan Shapiro (ph), says the
impression in the region is that the U.S. won't stand with its allies as Iran grows more aggressive.
Do you share these regional concerns?
Do you sympathize with them?
ROBERT FORD, MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE: I think, actually, no. I think it's time for the Americans to rethink their approach to the Middle East. In
northeastern Syria, the Kurds are in the process of setting up a mini state.
I think that is something which we need to evaluate whether or not that's worth the United States using its military, its Air Force and its Special
Operations, to defend.
(CROSSTALK)
ANDERSON: The solution appears to be at the moment to pull the U.S. troops out and have the Turkish military sort of just go in and take over.
Do you see that as a solution?
FORD: Well, I think you need to be careful here. There's a lot of hysteria. Right now what the Turkish operation is, is it's a limited
incursion along approximately one-third of the space controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces. We don't know how far in the Turks are going but
it appears to be a limited incursion.
The Americans are not leaving Eastern Syria today or tomorrow or the next day. There seems to be still an opportunity for the Americans to work with
Turkey and others to manage this.
It is important for your viewers to understand, Russia, Iran and the Syrian government, in the big picture of Syria, now hold already, before this
American decision, the military advantage. And that is why they dominate also the United Nations-led peace process.
The Americans are already in a hole and it is not possible to get out of that hole unless you escalate dramatically. And no one in the United
States wants to escalate dramatically in Syria.
[11:40:00]
ANDERSON: No, and indeed President Trump has long expressed a deep respect of those who serve. Yesterday in a more emotional Trump than we are used
to seeing, he described the gut-wrenching job of bringing those who died in combat home. I just want our viewers to have a listen to what he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: The hardest thing I have to do by far, much harder than the witch hunt, is signing letters to parents of soldiers that have been killed.
It's so devastating for the parents. The back of that massive cargo plane opens up and they walk down holding a coffin and I see people that were
smiling. Oh, Mr. President, thank you for being here. I didn't even understood how they could take it so well. A scream like I've never seen
anything before. Sometimes they'll run to the coffin. They'll breakthrough military barriers. They'll run to the coffin and jump on top
of the coffin.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: The U.S.-backed Kurdish forces buried some 11,000 soldiers in the fight against ISIS while the U.S. lost 17 soldiers killed in action in
both Syria and Iraq. Those lives, of course, are incredibly important lives to their friends and families. And that incredibly sad. But many
will say Mr. Trump disregarding the bloodshed by his allies, Ambassador.
FORD: So I think it's important to say two things here. Number one, the Syrian Democratic Forces, both Kurds and Arabs but led by Kurds, fought
very bravely. They were terrific allies of the United States Air Force and special operators on the ground. No question.
But second point, really important to remember they were not doing that as an act of charity to the United States. They weren't doing that as a favor
to the United States. They were fighting hard to repel ISIS as far away from their own communities in northeastern Syria as they possibly could.
Totally understandable.
They had an interest, as did we, in fighting ISIS. But they have other goals, not just fighting ISIS. And we need to be careful about writing
blank checks.
ANDERSON: Vali Nasr, we've been talking about -- and I hope it doesn't sound trite when we talk about winners and losers because there are no
winners in military confrontations. We all know that.
But talking about where the balance of power and how it will shift as a consequence of this offensive, I want you just to give us your considered
opinion about how Donald Trump's actions might affect the U.S.' ability to build alliances, particularly in this region, going forward.
I mean, it is very clear from those I speak to in the Middle East that there is certainly an effort to recalibrate the way they think about their
relationship with the U.S. going forward.
NASR: Well, I think there's a question of whether or not the United States would have been able to sustain its partnership with the Kurds going
forward. I think Ambassador Ford is correct.
At the end of the day, the Kurds have another agenda. Their power in northeastern Syria has implications for stability within Turkey -- or at
least the Turks view it that way. At the end of the day, if the United States in the long run had to choose between Turkey and the Kurds, it
probably always would pick Turkey.
Let's not forget, Turkey is also an ally. There are implications for siding with the Kurds against Turkey as well.
So I think that's probably not as much of a reflection on America being a fickle ally as is the way in which President Trump went about this. In
other words, he didn't listen to advice from within the American foreign policy establishment.
Many of our allies in the region have a perception of certain stability within American foreign policy decision making. It appeared that he made
this decision very quickly after a conversation with President Erdogan. It was unorthodox.
Then there's also a question of symbolism. I think the symbolism was that this decision did not take into account Israel's interests, what
potentially Iran might read into it.
And those are, I think, the messages that are being taken in Jerusalem, in Riyadh, in Abu Dhabi, in Manama, that you cannot really count on knowing
what this president's likely to do and he could veer very radically and your alliance may end up being road kill in that veering.
[11:45:00]
ANDERSON: And should that be the case and if indeed this is the narrative that's doing the rounds in this region, what are the consequences of that,
do you believe?
NASR: Well, I think there's short-run consequences and long-run consequences. The short run, perhaps many other countries will begin to
recalculate and recalibrate. We've already seen that UAE and Saudi Arabia are beginning to rethink their position vis-a-vis Iran.
There have been reports that Saudi Arabia has sent messages of wanting to de-escalate with Iran. This has to do with the perception that, if the
United States is going to suddenly leave them in the cold and make its own decisions in the region, that they better start hedging.
But in the longer run, it also may suggest to people that the United States is not likely to be the scaffolding for the security structure of this
region. The U.S. is not likely to be committed to long-run presence in places like Syria, Iraq, elsewhere in the region and that the region ought
to think about its own security in ways that doesn't necessarily rely on the United States.
That may very well be what the United States would like to see happen. But we have to be aware that this is the message that the region is going to
take away.
ANDERSON: Fred, Vali and Ambassador Ford, it's a pleasure having you on. A lot of ground covered there. Thank you.
We've been discussing geopolitics and indeed American politics. Tonight CNN is carrying out an historic event. We're partnering with the Human
Rights Campaign for a groundbreaking town hall event, "Equality in America." Join 12 of the 2020 Democratic candidates as they discuss issues
facing the LGBTQ community in back-to-back town halls.
That's 12:30 am in London Friday and at 7:30 am in Hong Kong. You can work out the times where you are watching locally.
Up next --
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Last year I brought my 5-year-old daughter and we went and we sat on the lake and she got to hear the loon for the first
time. It's like magic. You see it on their face. And its range is going to completely shift out of the U.S. in the future with climate change. So
you'll no longer be able to go to that same place and hear that bird call anymore.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Scientists warning of a world without birds. More on that up next.
(MUSIC PLAYING)
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[11:50:00]
(MUSIC PLAYING)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We're doing this for our children. The government is not acting as if there's an emergency, which there is. We need them to
declare a climate emergency.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I have hope that humanity can do better than this. As a doctor, I am genuinely fed up with putting people right to send them
back into a world that's unfair, unkind.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is very difficult. Everything is at stake. Everything.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Well, emotional displays of frustration there from activists taking part in a demonstration at London City Airport, their message very
clear. Enough is enough. Life on Earth is in crisis. They say we must act now. As the climate crisis intensifies, our skies may begin to go
silent.
An alarming report just released to CNN says that almost two-thirds of North American birds are at risk of extinction if climate trends continue.
Now this comes as scientists say, in just the past 50 years, we've already seen bird numbers in the U.S. and Canada plummet by nearly 3 billion.
Yes, you heard me right, 3 billion. CNN's Bill Weir has more on the report and on why we need birds far more than they need us.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BILL WEIR, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): From the Baltimore oriole to the golden eagle, from the songbirds in your backyard to America's rarest
heron fishing in Tampa Bay, our fine-feathered friends are in deep trouble.
MARK RACHAL, SANCTUARY MANAGER, FLORIDA COASTAL ISLANDS SANCTUARIES, AUDUBON FLORIDA: At this site, there used to be 50 to 60 nesting piers.
This was only about 15 years ago. And now, we're down to about five to eight piers.
WEIR (voice-over): After a recent study found that the U.S. and Canada lost nearly 3 billion birds just since the '70s, Audubon scientists took
the latest climate models and looked into the future of over 600 species.
WEIR (on camera): So this is not a development comes into a grassland and ruins the nesting grounds. This is that places on earth get too warm for
these species, so they have to either move or go extinct.
BROOKE BATEMAN, SENIOR SCIENTIST CLIMATE, NATIONAL AUDUBON SOCIETY: Exactly. So, it's a combination of changes in temperature, precipitation
and vegetation.
WEIR (voice-over): Brooke Bateman was the lead scientist and found that if humanity keeps warming the planet at the current rate, almost two-thirds of
the North American birds they study could be driven to extinction. And as they try to survive, many species, like the common loon, will fly north and
never come back.
BATEMAN: This is a bird that I just -- I went home, in my second grade and I wrote a report about it. And to this day, it's been a special bird for
me.
Last year, I brought my 5-year-old daughter and we went and we sat on the lake and she got to hear the loon for the first time. And it's like magic
-- you see it on her face.
And its range is going to completely shift out of the U.S. in the future, with climate change. So you'll no longer be able to go to that same place
and hear that bird call anymore.
WEIR (voice-over): But more alarming than a loss of pretty songs and colors is what birds like the common robin are telling us about the speed
of climate change.
BATEMAN: People usually think of robins as the sign of spring -- oh, the robins are back -- but robins are actually overwintering in a lot of places
more frequently than they used to and not leaving at all.
WEIR (on camera): So it's a different kind of harbinger now.
BATEMAN: Yes.
[11:55:00]
WEIR (on camera): And if the robin is hanging out in December --
BATEMAN: Yes.
WEIR (on camera): -- something's wrong.
BATEMAN: Something's wrong. And that's the thing. Birds are indicators, birds tell us. They're the ones that are telling us what's going on in the
environment.
WEIR (on camera): Yes.
BATEMAN: And so, we say, at Audubon, that birds tell us it's time to act.
WEIR (voice-over): And if humanity can act fast enough and somehow hit the carbon-cutting targets of the Paris accord, she says 75 percent of the most
vulnerable species could survive.
WEIR (on camera): You have kids, do you?
RACHAL: I do, I have three young girls.
WEIR (on camera): Do you think these species will still be around when they're your age?
RACHAL: I do, I do.
WEIR (on camera): You do?
RACHAL: I think -- I think the habitat may be a little bit different but I'm hopeful.
WEIR (voice-over): Mark has been working at Tampa Bay for over a dozen years and has seen firsthand how even a casual love of birds can inspire
positive action. Even the managers of that coal-fired power plant are Audubon supporters, he tells me.
But while it was the canary that warned coal miners of invisible doom back in the day, these days it seems that birds of all shapes and sizes are
being forced to do the same.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ANDERSON: Well, an update before we go on our top story this hour. The Turkish offensive against Kurdish forces in northern Syria. Another world
leader now weighing in against it. French president Emmanuel Macron saying the operations risk helping ISIS, quote, "rebuild its caliphate" and that
if that happens, "Turkey," he says, "will be responsible." I'm Becky Anderson. That was CONNECT THE WORLD. Thank you for watching.
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