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Steven Riley: With Reopenings, We Would Expect Infections To Rise; Study Shows UK's Vaccination Program Is Working; Jair Bolsonaro: Brazil Won't Cry Over Spilled Milk; Rising Cases Fuel Pandemic Fatigue Across Parts Of Asia; IMF Suggests "Solidarity Tax" To Help Recovery. Aired 10a- 10:20a ET

Aired April 08, 2021 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

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ANNOUNCER: Live from CNN Abu Dhabi. This is "Connect the World" with Becky Anderson.

BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST, CONNECT THE WORLD: Well, hello and welcome to the program. It is the ninth day of testimony in the trial of Derek Chauvin for

the death of George Floyd. Testimony today expected to begin shortly we will take you live to the courtroom when that happens.

First up, a new study in the United Kingdom shows that England's vaccination success is breaking the link between COVID cases and deaths.

Remember the UK steamy ahead with its vaccine rollout with nearly one in 10 people already fully vaccinated against COVID-19.

Well, now researchers at Imperial College in London found that infections have fallen in England by about 60 percent since February. For most of last

year, the pattern of cases rising and falling had been closely followed by the pattern of deaths.

And you'll remember the dire state that the UK was in at the end of last year. So the big picture here COVID vaccines are working. But globally

Coronavirus cases are still rising every week with several regions currently being hit with a new wave of infections combined with slow

vaccine rollouts, or, indeed, no rollouts at all.

Well, joining me now is Professor Steven Riley of Imperial College London, one of the lead researchers on the project that I've just been discussing.

Explain if you will say your key findings and why they are significant.

STEVEN RILEY, PROFESSOR OF INFECTIOUS DISEASE DYNAMICS, IMPERIAL COLLEGE LONDON: Yes, thank you. So in the - study, we tried to recruit a random

sample of people in England, and we understand a swap back and we get a pretty good measure of infections, regardless of symptoms, or how people

are seeking care?

We got a pretty good measure of infections over time and been running for nearly a year, for much of the study, we get a really kind of close

agreement in the pattern of infections. And then 27 days later, the pattern of deaths that we observe as reported, kind of by the usual statistics,

what we've seen with the more recent data, is that that relationship has changed.

It's not completely broken, there are still people dying, you know, died passing away because of COVID in England, but what we've seen is that

relationship has changed and weakened substantially. So there are fewer deaths since mid January than you'd expect from that prior link between

infections and deaths.

ANDERSON: Well, this is important you have said that with the country, continuing to lift its restrictions in the coming weeks as spiking cases is

expected. But the key thing, tracking this is of course, deaths, what's expected then?

RILEY: So it really depends exactly how people behave. As you know, there's one thing is, is the policy of the government sets out and the other is

exactly how people respond? You know, some people will be more or mix more than we might want, but other people might mix less.

So what we would expect to see is an increase in infections, and then probably an increase in deaths. But we don't know how strong that increase

will be yet, and it's going to take a little bit of time to assess that in the next round.

ANDERSON: A report also says that primary age children currently have the highest number of infections. Your report says that these trends are likely

due to a combination of factors including the reopening of schools and kids not being eligible for vaccines, what are you recommending off the back of

that what measures are still needed, then to protect children?

RILEY: So the vast majority of deaths and disease are arise from older adults so that the current vaccine strategy in the UK of targeting those

most at risk personally, when they get infected does seem perfectly rational to us.

I think that, you know, if we're recommending anything specific from these results, it's that as we step through these kinds of milestones on the

roadmap, that we do pay close attention to those patterns as we go forward. So that you know we do - we recognize any dramatic increases.

So children are the highest currently affected group, the younger children, but there's still been a drop in that age group, even during the period

where schools opened.

ANDERSON: The key finding then here that vaccinations do seem to have limited the number of cases and deaths which is really, really good news.

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ANDERSON: The downside of this news as it were, is that for many countries that are experiencing significant delays or no rollouts of vaccine at all,

this will be sobering news. I wonder what the takeaway is, perhaps not from this report, but in the community that you work in the number of scientists

that you work with how we might better fight this virus collectively?

RILEY: So I think I would, I would highlight, you know, that there is a bit of variation around the world in how people are using the vaccines. And the

UK has gone two things that are a little bit more extreme than perhaps other countries.

They've been very strict in starting with the oldest members of population and working their way down with also looking at those most at risk and

health care workers. And they've - the UK has also given as many people one dose as quickly as they can, and then follow up a little bit later with

that second dose.

And we don't demonstrate that there - that those differences are the root cause in this paper today, but I would urge other countries that are doing

slightly different approaches to take a look and to consider whether some of those strategies might be might have helped the UK in these recent

months.

ANDERSON: Finally, I just want to put this to you. We are hearing that vaccines seem to be working for as long as six months, which is great news

for those who may not be vaccinated yet, but for those who have already been vaccinated, and may have been vaccinated as early as December.

Are we getting to a point that concerns you, that suggests that we need to kind of start again with this vaccination process, because let's face it,

we are not at herd immunity anywhere we have not got on top of this virus anywhere not in the UK nor elsewhere?

RILEY: That's right. We do have to you know, we have to look carefully at the number of people with a single dose and the number of people that have

got two doses where they do seem to have a much more robust protection and perhaps a longer lasting protection.

But then probably the more important thing that's going to become evident in the next few months is protection from different levels of disease. So

it may be the protection from being infected wanes in a different way than protection from severe disease.

These are things that we just don't know, because we haven't had enough time yet to observe them. But most I think most people are starting to

accept that it's, it's going to be a series of vaccinations over the next few years, I think to give them maximum protection.

So I think the messaging that we're hearing in the UK, is that people are getting ready you know, for booster doses even this year in the autumn and

that's probably the right mindset that we need to adopt if we can.

ANDERSON: Yes, let's remind ourselves vaccines when they work only protect you from getting ill from the symptoms of Coronavirus. They don't kill

Coronavirus, dead as it were. Thank you, sir.

As we said the bottom line vaccines do work mostly when people have access to them. But far too many countries are lagging behind as we continue to

say no country can be safe until all countries are safe. We are only as strong as our weakest link.

And that is nowhere more evident than in Brazil right now. It's crisis flowing well beyond its borders. It just continues to get worse deaths

higher than ever hospitals beyond collapse. And the president while he says there is no point crying over spilled milk. Yes, he said that. No point

crying over spilled milk.

Over 4000 people have died and Jair Bolsonaro calls it spilled milk. We connect you to Shasta Darlington, who is joining us now from Sao Paulo in

Brazil. It does feel like there is no end in sight for Brazil.

SHASTA DARLINGTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, that's right, Becky. I mean, we've just gotten through the deadliest month since the pandemic began.

That was March and then this week, the numbers continued to rise. You mentioned that more than 4000 people died in a single day, a grim record

and the experts are saying this could rise to 5000.

And that's because we're dealing with a dangerous and more contagious variant. This is something that has crippled the hospitals across the

country. 18 out of Brazil's 26 states say their health systems are nearing collapse with the more than 90 percent of beds and intensive care units

occupied.

And as you mentioned, the president has really not let up with this cavalier attitude. He's refused to impose lockdowns the few crews'

foundation.

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One of the more respected institute's here says that Brazil needs a minimum of a two week nationwide lockdown just to slow the spread of the crisis.

Bolsonaro says that will never happen on his watch. And then he goes on to say, as you mentioned, and these deaths this rising surge, there's no point

in crying over spilt milk.

In the meantime, the vaccine rollout has been slow plagued by political infighting and now the main supplier of vaccines. Brazil's Butantan

Institute which produces the Coronavac Vaccine has temporarily suspended production. This is according to our affiliate CNN, Brazil.

Their sources say it's due to a delay in the delivery of raw materials from China and yet, so far, only 8.5 percent of the population has even received

a single dose of the vaccine. So the outlook is not good and really not getting the support from the highest levels of power that should be setting

the example Becky.

ANDERSON: Shasta Darlington is in Sao Paulo. Thank you. Let's move on. We've just taken a look at the largest country in South America. That is

certainly not the only place seeing staggering numbers, parts of Asia now being slammed by what are third and fourth waves, India reporting 126,000

new infections.

Now the second consecutive day the country has reported an all time high in new cases and cases also on the rise in South Korea and in Thailand. So the

question is why? Well, it does seem it's a mixture of fatigue of virus variants.

And as we've been discussing of slow vaccine rollouts, all three causing these numbers to go in the wrong direction. Blake Essig tells us more about

the latest surge in Japan and elsewhere.

BLAKE ESSIG, CNN CORRESPONDENT (on camera): Here in Japan, the daily case count has reached its highest point in two months, more than 3000 cases

reported. Osaka accounts for nearly a third of the new cases, in a sense declared a medical emergency with hospital bed occupancy rates nearing 70

percent. That being said, Japan is far from the only country in this region seeing a surge in cases.

In a part of the world which was first to bear the brunt of COVID-19 pandemic fatigue virus variants and vaccine rollout seemingly moving at a

snail's pace are three factors that Dr. Jerome Kim, the Head of the UN Organization promoting vaccination and its development says will likely

continue to cause problems across Asia Pacific.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JEROME KIM, DIRECTOR GENERAL, INTERNATIONAL VACCINE INSTITUTE: If you can't control the pandemic and you don't have access to vaccine. You're not going

to be - you're going to be in a situation we were in the spring of 2020 with hospitals being full with people being denied admission and people

dying at home.

ESSIG (voice over): It's a grim reality that many countries in the region could face in the days and weeks to come. The Philippines, Bangladesh,

Pakistan most of Japan and South Korea are all seeing their daily case counts moving in the wrong direction. As for India, well over 100,000 new

infections have been reported daily.

VINOD KUMAR PAUL, HEALTH OFFICIAL, NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR TRANSFORMING INDIA COMMISSION: Last couple of weeks - few weeks the situation is

becoming from bad to worse and a serious cause for concern.

ESSIG (voice over): In the Philippines, the president's spokesperson said the spread of more infectious Coronavirus variants came as a surprise. More

than 24 million people in and around Manila have been living under lockdown for more than a week as cases continue to surge.

Infections have been on the rise almost daily since mid February. The result, many hospitals are overwhelmed non essential workers fear for what

an extended lockdown might mean.

EDDIE ABRASALDO, JEEPNEY DRIVER: It will be more difficult when we don't have jobs because we don't have the money to feed our family.

ESSIG (voice over): Well, case counts are on the rise in several countries throughout Asia Pacific vaccines are not as readily available as in

countries like the UK and U.S. Dr. Kim explains why?

KIM: I think countries were a little late to enter the queue for vaccine purchases. I mean, to some extent in Korea and Japan it was because there

weren't as many cases and they wanted, perhaps to know that the vaccines were working or which vaccines were safe.

ESSIG (voice over): Japan has fully vaccinated about two tenths of a percent of its population, the Philippines and South Korea even less than

that. In India, the vaccine factory of the world is still at less than 1 percent. But it's not all bad news across the Asia Pacific region, in Hong

Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and Vietnam the new average daily case count has remained extremely low.

And in New Zealand and Australia the count is low enough that they will resume operating a quarantine free travel corridor between the two

countries later this month. The World Health Organization believes the latest surge in the region is in part driven by governments relaxing

measures, allowing more people to gather with vaccines on the horizon.

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ESSIG (voice over): Health experts say sending the same message promoting personal hygiene, wearing a mask and social distancing is no longer

effective. Blake Essig, CNN, Tokyo.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Well, the global economic hit from COVID-19 has been staggering. Rich and poor nations alike just are beginning their struggle towards

recovery. The International Monetary Fund suggesting some countries but special solidarity taxes on those who can afford them that could help level

the playing field. They say the IMF says temporary personal income tax hikes or levies on company's profits could help ensure that businesses

devastated by the pandemic are able to bounce back.

Business Correspondent John Defterios is joining me here in Abu Dhabi with more on the likelihood of what some are describing as this Robin Hood plan,

connects us to the big picture here. Is this part of a wider effort to introduce global taxes in what is this post pandemic world in the name of

solidarity as it were?

JOHN DEFTERIOS, CNN EMERGIN MARKETS EDITOR: Yes, Becky. You can see this in more than one instance, that's for sure. And as part of this arduous road

back after the pandemic, as you're suggesting here, and the International Monetary Fund's actually breaking it down between the haves and have not's,

for example, the corporations that made a lot of money during the pandemic, you could think of an Amazon or the major consumer goods companies that

make disinfectants could pay a higher rate for extended period of time.

Higher net worth individuals as well that invested in Wall Street in the financial capitals around the world and saw that boom, because of the low

interest rates. It's in the name of debt reduction here, particularly the burden that the United States is carrying with all this stabilization plans

and investment in infrastructure. But it's also to close the wealth gap at the same time. Here's the IMF.

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VITOR GASPAR, DIRECTOR, IMF FISCAL AFFAIRS DEPARTMENT: Pre existing inequalities have made COVID-19 worse, but at the same time COVID-19 has

aggravated inequalities. Such a vicious circle threatens to open a seismic crack in the social fabric.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

DEFTERIOS: Very social democratic and the approached by the International Monetary Fund in other words, say United States now under Joe Biden. We've

seen three examples that stand out in the past Australia, Japan during the Fukushima disaster.

But I think most notably Becky Germany after the fall of the Berlin Wall and during German unification. But this is the interesting side of it. That

was supposed to be in place for four or five years. It's still chugs along here, there reduce the rate of it, but it's better than 30 years.

So once you get a tax into place, it's hard to get it out. And this is record debt that we've been talking about for the last 18 months being

posted up in the G-7 countries, especially Becky.

ANDERSON: Yes, absolutely. I mean, you know, let's be clear, the IMF has actually upgraded his forecast so for growth in 2021 and 2020, to

reconsider what happened in 2020. You know, that's only to be expected. The U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, John wants to try and harmonize

corporate tax rates.

Now you can understand perhaps why when Joe Biden effectively may want to raise corporate taxes to pay for his $2 trillion infrastructure project. He

certainly doesn't want businesses leaving us for a better fiscal environment. But this idea is gathering momentum, it seems amongst other G-

7 countries in the world, or am I mistaken here?

DEFTERIOS: No, you're absolutely right. It's Janet Yellen, the U.S. Treasury Secretary who's championing this cause. She's not picking the tax

rates of the Obama Administration at 35 percent, but something in the center at 28 percent.

What surprises me though Becky is that it is picking up steam here in the G-7 industrialized countries right away at the IMF, World Bank meetings? We

heard from the French Finance Minister and the Italian Finance Minister saying we could see this happen.

Now the debate is going to happen. Because you're going to see countries like Ireland, or Hong Kong or Singapore, who make their living off of being

very tax sensitive to corporations around the world. That 28 percent rate, by the way, a lot of pushback from the American Chamber of Commerce, the

National Association of Manufacturers, I think that's pretty clever on the part of the U.S. administration here to say let's bring it into the G-7.

And they want the OECD in Paris to carry the can on this. And I remember when the U.S. wanted to crack down on money laundering around the world,

they use the OECD, and it worked, Becky. So this is something that's going to build momentum in the organizations and the governments that actually

have robust tax systems that can handle these sorts of changes. But it's going to be a very fierce debate internationally over the next year.

ANDERSON: Yes, absolutely John always a pleasure, thank you sir. Lawmakers in Northern Ireland are holding emergency talks today after a sixth

straight night of violence in Belfast.

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ANDERSON: The Irish and British Prime Minister's both condemning the escalating unrest across Northern Ireland which has left dozens of people

injured. Unionists and nationalists are clashing with police and with each other. The violence is happening for two reasons.

Shin Fane accuses the democratic Unionist Party of stoking tensions by posing the creation of a new post Brexit trade protocol, Unionists angry

that police refused to prosecute Shin Fane for allegedly breaking COVID-19 restrictions at a funeral last year, attended by thousands.

The ninth day of testimony beginning in the trial of the former police officer accused of killing George Floyd in Minnesota. Let's get you to the

courtroom now.

END