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Ukraine: Russia Launches Assault on Eastern Front; Ukrainians Forced to Flee into Russia; CNN Speaks to Former Ukrainian Defense Minister; Soon: UK PM to Address Parliament after COVID Breach Fine; Residents Outraged Over Shadows Latest Quarantine Policy; Estonia Welcoming Hundreds of Ukrainian Refugees Daily. Aired 11a-12p ET

Aired April 19, 2022 - 11:00   ET




ANNOUNCER: Live from CNN London, this is "Connect the World" with Becky Anderson.

BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST, CONNECT THE WORLD: Well, this hour Russia's long anticipated offensive on Eastern Ukraine has begun after the Kremlin ramped

up its attacks across the country. I'm Becky Anderson. Hello and welcome back to "Connect the World".

Well, Russia attacking Ukrainian frontlines in the East and in the south where the huge steel plant in Mariupol sheltering Ukrainian soldiers and

families is enduring heavy Russian bombardment Kremlin also targeting positions in Eastern Ukraine in what Ukraine's President calls a new phase

of the war the battle for Donbas.

Well, in Mariupol, newly released video from the Azov battalion purports to show women and children who've been sheltering for weeks inside this steel

plant. CNN cannot independently confirm its authenticity. And Azov Commander describing what he says has been happening inside.


LT. COL. DENYS PROKOPENKO, COMMANDER, AZOV REGIMENT: Right now in Mariupol at the Azovstal Steel Factory, hundreds of civilians are sheltering. Among

them are children of all ages, women, the elderly, and the families of Mariupol defenders. They are sheltering in the basements and bunkers from

the Russian world.


ANDERSON: Well, how long they are able to remain there is unclear? The commander says Russian forces are "Willingly firing on the plant". And

another Russian deadline to surrender there has passed this video from Reuters shows the immense damage outside of the plant and a reminder, CNN

is not inside Mariupol.

There are reports of Russian shelling all along the Ukrainian front lines in the Northeast, and the South. This video from Ukraine's emergency

service shows the aftermath of an attack near the Southern City of Mykolaiv.

Well, in Eastern Ukraine Kramatorsk is among the cities in during relentless Russian shelling Ben Wedeman my colleagues spoke to residents

who have remained behind it a once bustling city now practically deserted.


BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice over): The playgrounds are empty. There are no children here. The pigeons indifferent

to the air raid siren and so it would seem are the people.

I closed my ears when I'm walking around, says Nikolay because it's all the time. As fighting flares to the East, North and South the few residents

left in Kramatorsk carry on. The train station seen ten days ago of a Russian missile strike they left almost 60 dead is closed. Trains don't

come here anymore. The buses oddly enough still run.

A deep hole marks were overnight or Russian missiles struck. There were no injuries this time. Nearby signs of an earlier bombing after almost two

months of war Constantine is fatalistic. I'm not suicidal, he says but as long as other people stay here, I'll stay here.

Kramatorsk's Mayor Oleksandr Goncharenko is blunt about the perils his city faces.

OLEKSANDR GONCHARENKO, KRAMATORSK MAYOR: It's not safe. It's dangerous in the in each part of the city knows the rock can be attacked in every place

of the city.

WEDEMAN (voice over): Alisa and her husband stroll through the city's main square.

ALISA, KRAMATORSK RESIDENT: This is - terrible but we won't leave Ukraine.

WEDEMAN (voice over): For now they have most of their city to themselves.

WEDEMAN (on camera): Under normal circumstances on a mild spring evening here in the main square in Kramatorsk there would be lots of people here

now it's just me and the pigeons.

WEDEMAN (voice over): Curfew approaches and dogs abandoned by their owners roam the empty streets of an almost empty city Ben Wedeman, CNN Kramatorsk

Eastern Ukraine.


ANDERSON: A somber life in that part of Ukraine. Well, let's get up to our reporters now. Ed Lavandera is in Kyiv for us Matt Rivers is in the Western

City of Lviv. Matt, you've been watching what is going on in the East and in the South. The promise of this offensive on the Donbas region it seems

is now real what do we know at this point?


MATT RIVERS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, I mean, Becky, you and I have been talking about this for days now. We've been talking about on the channel

for weeks now, waiting for this to happen. This has been what we've been expecting ever since Russia's announced that it was withdrawing its troops

from Northern Ukraine after its failed attempt to take the capital.

We have seen the regrouping of tens of thousands of Russian troops in the East. And now they are unleashing their collective mind. This is the moment

where we will see whether the Ukrainians can do what they did in the northern part of the country and once again, repel a Russian enemy that is

more numerous in number and in weapons.

Now, the Ukrainian say that they are ready for this fight. They say that so far, there has been no Russian breakout. If you're a Russian official or a

Russian general hoping that the beginning of this campaign, this new part of the campaign would have featured a sweeping victory across the east.

That is not what we are seeing so far.

Yes, one Ukraine town, called Kreminna has fallen so far, according to officials there they say that Russian troops now occupy that city, but in

other places around that region, Donetsk and - for example, that remains fighting ongoing.

One thing that we should mention here, Becky, is that regional officials in Luhansk and Donetsk are urging begging civilians that remain in these

places to get out of there as soon as possible with one regional official saying, look what happened in Kreminna. Anyone who did not leave that city

is now a "Hostage of the Russian occupiers".

They're urging residents to leave in other parts of the East in the Donbas region, so they do not suffer the same fate as those people in that town

now occupied by Russia. Further south, though, Becky, I should add in Mariupol, we are watching very closely what is happening at that Azovstal

Steel Plant, we've talked about it a lot. This is the pocket of resistance really, that is left for Ukraine.

And we're saying Mariupol has not yet fallen to the Russians. Essentially, what we're talking about is this steel plant that is continued to be

occupied not only by fighters fighting for Ukraine, but also by ordinary civilians. We have seen video that CNN cannot independently verify, but

that the government claims is from inside that steel plan.

But right alongside those fighters there are women and children who are hunkered down part of the tens of thousands of civilians that remain

trapped in Mariupol as right now there remains no way for them to escape.

ANDERSON: While Putin creates a Russian sphere of influence Donbas, it seems key to Vladimir Putin's ideology. You are Ed in Kyiv. That area and

its surroundings was under attack by Putin's forces at the beginning of this war, and the failure to win at that point, it seems has refocused

Russian minds and offensive on that Donbas region. So just explain what is going on where you are?

ED LAVANDERA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think right now, what you see around the City of Kyiv is a couple of different things. One of them is

that it still remains an area that is occasionally targeted with airstrikes in the outskirts of the city for with various targets.

So there is still that looming threat of airstrikes in this area. But the ground presence of Russian forces that was in this area looming very close

to the capital city has evaporated, it's gone. So now you are seeing the opportunity for neighborhoods, communities, suburbs, to begin the process

of assessing the damage.

We've drove around the last few days in the areas west and just northwest of Kyiv. It is the level of destruction is beyond words in many cases. It

is just unfathomable. What so many people here are dealing with trying to figure out investigating possible war crimes, trying to connect loved ones

with missing family members. All of that work is intensifying in the areas around Kyiv right now.

ANDERSON: Matt, you're in Lviv. You've just been explaining to us what we understand to be going on as that offensive ratchet up in the eastern. And

our reporters where they can be reporting on evidence of the onset of that offensive just for our viewers purposes. What's going on where you are?

RIVERS: Well, I think not dissimilar to what you just heard Ed say about the looming threat of missile attacks. I mean, what we've seen from Russia

over the past, let's say week or is a willingness to launch missile attacks all over the country be it symbolic or strategic.


RIVERS: I think here in Lviv largely, we did see four missiles strike here yesterday across the region killing civilians in Libya for the first time

since this war began, as a result of those four strikes, including one such missile that had an auto body repair shop that we were able to visit.

But I don't think any military expert will tell you that those missiles will have any significance on Lviv's importance as a transit point for all

of those external weapons that are being brought into the country.

When you hear President Zelenskyy talking about getting weapons from outside the country, a lot of it is being transferred through Poland, which

is just about an hour's drive from where I am right now.

So these Russian missile strikes here, probably largely symbolic, and maybe not that dissimilar to what we're seeing in Kyiv, Russia keen to show yes,

we can send the missile to anywhere around the country anytime we want.

But in terms of having an actual impact on the Ukrainian military's ability to defend this country, I don't think there's any impact to be spoken up

there. But when you're talking about the impact to you know, a sense of security for people here in Lviv specifically, this is a city that has

largely escaped the violence and destruction that is characterized so much, so many other parts of this war in other parts of the country that we have


This is a city right now. I mean, as I looked down off the balcony, where we're doing our live shots here, life goes on here. And yet, I can tell you

that after those missile strikes yesterday, that had an impact on people's mindsets here, you know, maybe paying a bit more attention to the air raid

sirens that go off with frequency here.

But that don't always cause people to run for an air raid shelter. Yesterday there were several air raid sirens that went off after those

missiles struck. And we saw multiple people take cover in a way that maybe they wouldn't have done so three or four days earlier.

ANDERSON: Terrorized by what's going on, at another stage of the operation is beginning and I am sure this will be a very important moment, in this

entire, "special operation", the words of Sergey Lavrov speaking in an exclusive interview with India today.

Sergey Lavrov, of course is the Foreign Minister of Russia. He also went on to say when asked repeatedly about whether Russia plans to use nuclear

weapons in Ukraine, he said, Russia historically has been against the use of nuclear weapons.

Not sure whether he was actually answering the question directly. That doesn't certainly sound as if he was.

What's your sense, from speaking to sources on the ground, speaking to Ukrainian officials about the potential use of or threat at least going

back to the beginning of this war of the use of nuclear weapons by Vladimir Putin's forces?

LAVANDERA: That's probably the one question that looms over the entire country in a very tense way. President Zelenskyy has said that the world

should be prepared for that possibility, that that is a very real possibility.

Remember, this is the same foreign minister who said that Russia wasn't going to invade Ukraine. So we you know, we take it with an extreme grain

of salt him saying now that Russia is not, at this point interested in using nuclear weapons. But, you know, obviously, that the looming threat of

that the possible threat of that you have to imagine that that's highly calculated into the response that allies, NATO allies, other countries

around the world have kind of calculated into the decision making probably has something to do with perhaps, you know, the U.S. saying that they're

not going to put a ground troops on the ground here in Ukraine.

Obviously, that is, the threat of all of that has to be very real in the back of the minds of many leaders across the world.

ANDERSON: You move for being on a secure call with the U.S. President Joe Biden. Today we await further details of what was discussed to both of you

to Matt, and you, Ed, who have been on the ground now for weeks in Ukraine.

Thank you, for your reporting, for your work of Vladimir Putin successful failure, right now hangs on that Donbas region as we've been explaining

battles for control of rage there for eight years.

But why does he want it so badly? Well, it's fair to say it could have to do with Soviet attachments stretching back a century, more on that with

Still ahead, rating the Russian army's performance in Ukraine, a former Ukrainian defense minister speaking out and saying that it is failing,

we'll talk to him after this short break.

And Ukraine's president says thousands have been forced into Russian territory as people flee the fierce fighting in Mariupol. We'll hear from

two civilians, who made that journey, their story is coming up.



ANDERSON: As Russia begins a new and critical phase of its war in Ukraine, the Ukrainian president says that sanctions will make it tough for Moscow

to replace its stockpile of missiles of helicopters and of other weapons.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy says it will be even more difficult when loopholes are closed and even harsher sanctions are imposed.

Well, with Russian troops now focusing on targets in eastern and southern Ukraine. There's new evidence of the setbacks they faced. And the torment

they inflicted in the failed campaign to take Kyiv.

CNN's Phil Black visited the small town of Hostomel not far from the Capitol to see what Russian troops left behind. And as ever, over the 50

days or so that we have been reporting on this war, a warning for you. His report contains graphic images.


PHIL BLACK, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): The sign is a warning but where mines, the forest serves as protection to and natural screen concealing a

vast secret. Here among the trees about an hour's drive north of Kyiv there remains of a sprawling Russian military camp were shown around by Ukrainian

Special Forces.

The soldier says the positions were held by Russian Marines. We see a sprawling network of underground fighting positions command post sleeping

areas and ammunition storage.

While everywhere there is evidence of how the Russians lived, and that evidence suggests their existence here was neither disciplined nor


BLACK (on camera): It is so quiet here now just some bird noise and a light breeze. But recently, there were 6000 Russian soldiers bedded down through

these woods.

In a camp that is so large, you can't see where it begins and where it ends. Living here would have been hard it was through the coldest of the

winter days, four weeks stopped here short of Kyiv after they failed to take the capital quickly.

BLACK (voice over): The silence is broken by efforts to deal with some unidentified ordinance. This camp is damning proof of Russia's failures on

this front. Poor preparation, desperately wrong assumptions about the numbers and resources needed to conquer Kyiv.

BLACK (on camera): What lessons do you take from all of this that will apply to the coming battle for Donbas in the East?

BLACK (voice over): He says we see the volume of forces that invaded this area and we understand that will be two to three times greater in the

Donbas. This force wasn't confined to the forest.

Its commanding officers lived a little more comfortably in the nearby village of Zdvyzhivka. Here civilians tell disturbingly familiar stories.

Vitaly, a local mechanic says he was detained and interrogated for almost 24 hours.


BLACK (voice over): He says he was beaten, blindfolded, tied up and subjected to mock executions. He says he's never known fear like it and

constantly thought those were his last moments on Earth.

Local praised Wassily Benson describes dealing with the aftermath of even greater cruelty. He says he found five men tortured and killed in the

garden, two more in the forest. And the Russians brought him two dead women and told him to bury them.

Other Russians in this area, camped out in fields with their artillery pieces, and stole what comforts they could. And mattress, alcohol, the

works of Shakespeare.

BLACK (on camera): So from these firing positions, Grad rockets flew through the sky towards Hostomel, which is only a relatively short distance

away. And when they hit the Earth, it was often civilians who felt their power.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You can see as a result. So many people--

BLACK (on camera): They were hiding in there.


BLACK (voice over): In Hostomel, resident Dimitri Nekazakov shows the aftermath of a Russian rocket strike.

DIMITRI NEKAZAKOV, HOSTOMERL RESIDENT: This is epicenter of explosion.

BLACK (voice over): And where some of its victims were temporarily buried.

NEKAZAKOV: I feel on the hate.

BLACK (on camera): On a hate?

NEKAZAKOV: Yes, we can't forgive it for long, maybe for life.

BLACK (voice over): For now, the enemies in the forest fields and villages have left this part of Ukraine. The fruits of their brief stay the pain,

trauma and loathing remain, Phil Black, CNN, Hostomel, Ukraine.


ANDERSON: That's a very revealing report, isn't it? My next guest says Russia underestimated Ukraine in an opinion piece. For the economist he

writes, "Terrible atrocities tell us that Russian leadership has decided to terrorize civilians as a tactic unable to outmaneuver the Ukrainian forces.

Russia compensates with brutality."

Well, Andrey Zagorodnyuk advises the Ukrainian government on defense matters. As a former defense minister, he was a major architect of military

reform in his country.

He's also the Chairman of the Center for Defense Strategies, which is a security think tank based in Ukraine. He joins us now from an undisclosed

location. As Putin's troop zero in on the east having, as you describe it, and as my colleague, Phil points out, failed in the areas around Kyiv, what

do you believe the Kremlin's military strategy is here?

ANDREY ZAGORODNYUK, FORMER UKRAINIAN DEFENSE MINISTER: The overall strategy is the same. They want Ukraine, they want the whole country. They want to

destroy Ukraine. And when I'm saying they, it means particularly Vladimir Putin, because he has some sort of obsession that seems like about our


He wants it and he wants to come here and he wants to, he wants to rule this. And there's very little logical explanation, but it seems like this

is goes on with him forever.

And it seems like that's, that's what he tries to do. The problem is that Ukrainian people don't want that at all. And Ukrainian people have a very

strong army. We've been already fighting Russia for some time.

And we're very motivated because unlike Russians, we don't have any plan B or C or whatever, we just have one plan we need to defend ourselves.

Because Putin clearly said that such country's Ukraine should not exist.

And we obviously disagree as any other free nation would. So his strategy is the same. However, since he cannot reach it, he can achieve his

strategic objectives. Now he tries to come up with some other ones like at least to show some people that.

And his officers need to show him that they can achieve something. And now they're like, interim goal is to get the Donbas, that's what his plan is.

ANDERSON: So as Phil was reporting, and it was really sort of revealing, I think, the report that he filed.


ANDERSON: We see a force, an army that withdrew; revealing poor preparation, tactics that were ill thought out, you must be looking for

some truths about where this Russian army is at this point. What's been learned through the early days of this conflict that will help as we move

into this next phase?

ZAGORODNYUK: Yes, what we learned is that they are having a serious command and control problems. They are much less disciplined than they were

expected. That targeting civilian population is the policy is not just the lack of discipline or some you know, some anomaly.


ZAGORODNYUK: It's a policy because it's happened in a very similar pattern throughout the various territories of Ukraine where they have stayed, and

the behavior also was repeated.

At the same time, they have problems with the, with management of the forces with the leadership and with generally with execution of the goals

and obviously with logistics.

And that will lead for the heavy losses which they incurred and heavy losses, which ended up with a whole number of the units completely losing

their combat readiness.

So right now, when they move to Donbas, they tried to recover and replenish this additional equipment and resources and, and so on. Partly has that has

been done, but it's still a problem.

And there's many analysts saying that the losers, which they had, they couldn't recover that fast. So we're going to see some substantial

movement. But it's a damaged army already.

ANDERSON: So what does victory look like, to your mind for Vladimir Putin at this point, and what lies for Ukraine between now and whatever that

victory that win is?

ZAGORODNYUK: He would announce victory soon on whatever reason for whatever reasons I mean. So he would be he would be most likely because many people

were saying something about the ninth of May, for example, that he wants some achievements by then.

I'm sure that he would announce something, whatever, even if it's a complete failure. But a total victory for him will be, of course, to take

Ukraine, which is not going to happen, as I explained before.

So right now he would, he would like to concentrate on Donbas, where he would say that at least they achieved some acquired some territories in

Donbas that would be easier said than done.

So I don't think it's going to be much, it's going to be a very serious problem for them, because Ukrainian forces, as I said, again, are strong,

and they are opposing, and they are - and we fight and Donbas is not going to be that an easy target.

Generally, for us, the victory would be to push Russians out of our land, and establish rule of law and the control of our nation on our territory.

That's the only way out. And for us, it's a matter as I said, that's a matter of life or death. So we will be pushing them until they're gone.

ANDERSON: And President Zelenskyy has said no compromise. There is no part of Ukraine that belongs to Russia. At this point, he says Ukraine will win

this war. Is that, your honest believe and--

ZAGORODNYUK: We don't have any other choice.

ANDERSON: Yes, but what damage will be wrought on the way?

ZAGORODNYUK: Yes, but what damage would be brought in the case if we don't. Because as we see, anywhere, where Russians are saying, they are destroying

everything, they're killing civilians, they're torturing people, raping people, again, as a matter of policy, they're destroying cities and so on.

So any alternative to fighting is actually even worse. So we are we're determined. And the thing is that you cannot really like cut the part of

the conference and just give it to somebody and say, OK, like, yes, if you want it so much, please take it.

That's not how the world order works. And that's not how the international law works. And then generally, so no president can do that. It's against

our constitutions against generally, like everything.

So we need to make sure that our armies are making anything possible in order to push this to push the occupants out. What they do is totally

unsubstantiated. Totally legal, there is no explanation why they should be here at all, to be honest. ANDERSON: Sir, it's good to speak to you. I'm

sorry that we are talking under these circumstances. I hate to say it, but I think it would be useful for us to talk again in what is likely to be the

days and weeks ahead. Thank you, sir.

Well, just ahead, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is about to face UK lawmakers. It will be his first time in the House of Commons after being

fined by police over what is known as party gate.

I'm going to explain why he will have to address parliamentarians and we'll bring you his remarks live after this.



ANDERSON: Well a full throated apology over party gate. That is what British Prime Minister Boris Johnson is expected to offer to Parliament

anytime now. He is first time back in the House of Commons since being fined for breaking COVID lockdown rules.

He is due on the floor soon. The fine makes Mr. Johnson the first sitting UK Prime Minister to be found guilty of breaking the law. And then maybe

more trouble ahead on Thursday.

Lawmakers are to vote on whether the Prime Minister should be investigated for allegedly misleading parliament over party gates. CNN's Nada Bashir is

here with me in our London studios.

Nada we await the British prime minister who we are promised will deliver a full throated apology. What does that mean do you think?

NADA BASHIR, CNN REPORTER: Becky, this is the first time he's addressing lawmakers in the House of Commons since he was issued that fixed penalty

notice last week. This isn't the first time he's apologized.

He was pressed last week by reporters on whether or not he would consider stepping down. He said he wants to draw a line under this scandal to move

forward and focus on his government's policy priorities.

But clearly, that hasn't been sufficient for opposition lawmakers. We've heard in the last hour or so that the Labor Party will table a motion for

debate on Thursday.

They are proposing a parliamentary inquiry into whether or not the Prime Minister knowingly misled parliament in breach of the ministerial code. Now

we heard from the prime minister last week.

He said he wasn't aware at the time that he was in breach of those COVID regulations but acknowledge the police investigation and paid the fine; he

said he respected the police's decision.

But of course that party a specifically of happening in June 2020 is just one of several gatherings have taken place in Downing Street and other

government buildings.

It's one of at least three social gatherings the Prime Minister took part of in a time when we were either under lockdown or under strict COVID

restrictions. And this scandal has been going on for months.

We've heard the Prime Minister repeatedly tell lawmakers in the House of Commons that no social gatherings took place, that no COVID regulations

breaches were committed by lawmakers and other staff members at Downing Street, then for him to be directly implicated in this scandal.

And of course, we have that Civil Service report that is still ongoing, highlighting serious failures by members of government officials. So

clearly some serious concerns are there and that investigation by the Civil Service is still ongoing.

The police investigation is still ongoing, so there could still be more fines to come posing a real threat to the Prime Minister's position, Becky.

ANDERSON: Yes absolutely, and that's really what this is all about. It begs the question what are the consequences for the Prime Minister, how much

support does he have from his fellow Conservative Party members?


BASHIR: Well, Becky, there is a small portion of the Conservative Party that have already called for the Prime Minister to resign. There's a larger

portion which have expressed their loyalty to the Prime Minister.

But there is a significant amount of the party waiting to see the impact of this scandal. We do have local elections coming up in the beginning of May.

And as I mentioned, that civil service report is still ongoing.

There were other gatherings the Prime Minister was revealed to have taken part in. So if there are more finds to come and if they do impact the Prime

Minister directly if there are more findings with regards to the prime minister in that Sue Gray report that could have a significant impact.

We've heard from one MP this morning, Tobias Ellwood, saying that if this does have a negative impact in the May local elections, the Prime Minister

should consider putting forward a vote of confidence that obviously a major threat to his position as a leader of the country, Becky.

ANDERSON: OK, well, we await the Prime Minister is not on the floor of the chamber at the moment, you just see Priti Patel, the Interior Minister

there speaking on the floor answering questions. Let's take a very short break.

We will get back to the House of Commons momentarily, also coming up a new grim assessment on the seismic effects of Russia's war on Ukraine.

On the global economy, the IMF tells us just how bad it is, and how long it will last. Plus Shanghai is facing pressure from Beijing to get its COVID

outbreak under control, why anger is growing about how the elderly there are being treated, more on that after this.


ANDERSON: Well, the International Monetary Fund is slashed its expectations for global economic growth for the next two years. And perhaps no surprise

blaming Russia's war in Ukraine, saying higher inflation and supply issues are some of the "earthquake" like ripple effects that will be felt


Let's bring in CNN's Anna Stewart as if things weren't bad enough before the war and with the after effects of COVID. This is a really significant

downgrade, isn't it?

ANNA STEWART, CNN REPORTER: It really is. And what's so interesting is the last IMF outlook was only in January, we're seeing a big downgrade even

from them, so growth now for the world of 3.6 percent this year and next.

That's nearly a percentage down from the forecast in January in terms of this year and of course when you look at Ukraine and Russia, a much darker

picture still. So for Ukraine's economy, they're seeing a double digit decline of 35 percent this year for Russia that is minus 8.5 percent.

And of course given that outsized role in commodities, it's the commodity price increase is pushing up inflation and really bleeding into the rest of

the world. And that's why we're seeing such a big impact. Also other things weighing on it like Chinese growth big concerns about China's slowdown

saying that they're expecting GDP for China to come at 4.4 percent this year.


STEWART: That is not only below their estimates from before, but also really undershooting Beijing's official target by over a percent.

ANDERSON: And we still see COVID lock downs in so many parts of China not least in that Shanghai area. I saw a graph earlier on and the amount of

vessels sitting offshore waiting to get into Chinese ports.

I mean, the supply side issues continue, don't they around the world. This is a gloomy forecast. And I think our viewers should be quite clear. This

is a baseline scenario. So you saying you know it's down.

And it's down from where it was in, in January. But you know we have no idea what happens next. That's the problem.

STEWART: The most alarming part of this entire massive report is this box here, Becky, it's the scenario box. And the adverse scenario is an

escalation of the war in Ukraine, and then an escalation matching on term in terms of Russian sanctions and including energy.

And in that scenario, you could see global GDP have 3 percent knocked off this year, you could have Europe, - that's Europe; GDP for the world would

be 2 percent and a huge implication for Russia. They're looking at knocking off 15 percent of economic output by 2027 if there's an escalation in

sanctions there.

And I think when we look at why the EU hasn't touched Russian oil and gas, this is why it costs.

ANDERSON: What do we know about those sanctions at present? Because you and I now have been talking for some weeks, we certainly have heard that the

French are now accepting that sanctions on Russian oil may be next.

And they may have to accept that. But as a bloc across Europe, its reports like this, which will frighten the life out of leadership.

STEWART: Particularly some of those member states.


STEWART: And when you talk about --, well, they have LNG terminals; they have the capability of bringing in liquefied gas. What about Germany? What

about some of those other countries who've been really anti it so far?

We believe oil is on the table. That's what we've been told by EU ministers that it's being discussed as a potential for sanctions for the next round.

Natural gas not is at this stage, just too hard to replace.

But for oil, potentially that could come next. It's interesting when speaking to an analyst a few days ago, he messaged me today to say, it

looks like we might be hearing a little bit more about this soon. So we will have to keep you posted.

ANDERSON: That's fascinating. And the Germans have said that they are prepared to quickly and effectively invest in LNG terminals. But these

things don't happen quickly. We're not talking about, you know, not here today, here tomorrow. We're talking about a couple of years.

Europe has depended what for way too long on Russian gas specifically. We've got to wait and see what happens next as far as the sanctions are

concerned. But those baseline numbers are where the action is I think, thank you very much indeed.

We are still waiting to hear from Boris Johnson. I'm just keeping one eye on the House of Commons for you. We are expecting him to make a full

throated apology described by sources from number 10, a full throated apology.

Let's see what that sounds like when he comes awaiting his arrival on the floor of the House of Commons. This is all with regard these fines for

Partygate as it is known.

Meantime, officials in Shanghai pleading with residents to get on board for more mass testing to stop the spread of COVID, But people are fed up with

the city's stringent measures.

After nearly three weeks of lockdown as Anna and I have been suggesting anger growing after videos like this one began showing up on social media,

the elderly being taken to a government quarantine center after testing positive for COVID. Right now authorities are placing anyone who tests

positive to facilities like this.

CNN's David Culver is living under these harsh restrictions in Shanghai.

He has more on those quarantine facilities and the outrage over a massive food delivery headed for the city that wound up in the trash.

DAVID CULVER, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Chinese officials vowing that all positive COVID 19 cases and close contacts will go to government designated

quarantine sites right here in Shanghai without exception.

Now the comments come as the community or societal spread of the virus is expected to end soon. That does not mean this is all over backed it could

be far from over.

Instead, it means they aim for cases to only be detected inside the isolation facilities. As the lockdown for millions and China's financial

hub continues videos online to senior citizens in Shanghai, some in their 90s being transferred to government designated quarantine centers.

One patient in a warehouse turned quarantine center told CNN that he saw a group of elderly patients some in wheelchairs being transported from a

nursing home after they tested positive.

There's also been uproar over online videos that appear to show perfectly good vegetables donated to Shanghai being dumped. Now the government says

the vegetables rotted during transportation and the donor recalled them.


CULVER: But the videos show workers dumping hundreds of boxes of vegetables into garbage cans. And in one video, you can actually hear a worker say all

of them are still fresh, and now they're dumped. It's such a pity.

In time getting food here, along with some of the medical care that folks need. It's been a real challenge. Many Shanghai residents have been

experiencing food shortages and difficulties buying food during the weeks of lockdown.

Social media videos and posts also showed donations couldn't reach people's neighborhoods due to logistical obstacles. Meantime, Shanghai plans to

launch another mass PCR testing to screen most of the residents here on Wednesday.

And they're going to continue the daily testing for those living in buildings that have reported positive cases over the next three days or so.

Outside of Shanghai so far, at least 47 cities are under either a full or partial lockdown as authorities here in China try to curb the spread of

Omicron. David Culver, CNN, Shanghai.

ANDERSON: Well, ahead on this show more on the plight of Ukraine's refugees. CNN speaks with two neighbors who made it out of Mariupol and

into Estonia; we'll hear why they tried to stay in their apartment building and why they in the end had no choice but to flee.


ANDERSON: Well, we are waiting to hear from the British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. He is expected to offer Parliament "full throated apology"

over Partygate. This will be his first time back in the House of Commons since being fined for breaking COVID locked down rules.

This debate ongoing with Priti Patel there, the Interior Minister, we are awaiting the arrival of the British Prime Minister on the floor. We will

get to him as soon as he start speaking. Well no surrender but no catch up.

A U.S. defense official says Ukrainian port city of Mariupol remains contested while Russia attacks a huge steel factory there that is the last

remaining holdout for Ukrainian forces.

The Azov battalion release video it says shows mothers and children who have been sheltering inside this steel factory for weeks. CNN cannot

independently confirm what is going on there, but the situation in Mariupol clearly growing darker by the day.

In a letter to Pope Francis, the Ukrainian marine commander described Mariupol as Hell on Earth. We're no longer in the southern port city as an

organization, but drone video like this shows much of the city is a hollow shell of what it once was. And some of the civilians trapped there have

faced a very difficult choice stay or find safe passage, safe passage to Russia.

But today they may have no such option. Now Ukraine's Deputy Prime Minister said no humanitarian corridors to evacuate civilians were agreed upon with

Russia for Tuesday.

Well, our Scott McLean is in the Estonian capital of Tallinn, that's along the Baltic Sea. And that is a nation that has been welcoming hundreds of

Ukrainian refugees every day, both through Ukraine but also Ukrainian refugees who have been coming via Russia. How and why Scott, what do people

been telling you?


SCOTT MCLEAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Becky, if you're trying to get out of Ukraine through the western part of the country, it is pretty cut and dry

in most cases. You can drive to the border, you can walk across it, you can take a train, it's pretty simple in terms of logistics.

If you are in one of these areas like Mariupol, though, where there is heavy fighting, it is infinitely more complicated and your options are

much, much more limited. In many cases, you only have one. Here's the issue.

Though these humanitarian corridors seem quite like a simple concept on the ground, it is very difficult to get people any information about when and

where they might actually be happening if the two sides even agree to have one.

And so what's happening is people are relying on rumors to try to get out. They're relying on their instincts; they're trying to find the path of

least resistance to get out. And often that leads to Russia.


MCLEAN (voice over): It's been two weeks since these suitcases were first packed. Two weeks since Evgeny and Ludmila escaped the hell of Mariupol to

Russia, and then finally to safety in Estonia.


MCLEAN (voice over): Stress.

LUDMILA: Stress. Yes, we're able to really relax; I feel that we are safe here.

MCLEAN (voice over): They lived across the hall from each other in an apartment building on the northern edge of Mariupol.

EVGENY: For 14 days from the beginning of the war, somehow all the shelling would all fly past us.

MCLEAN (voice over): But their luck would soon run out in the relentless bombardment of the city. Their building was eventually hit. The damage

though was limited enough for them to stay even without power, water, heat, or a cell signal.

LUDMILA: When you hear these explosions, you have an idea the direction they're coming from. And you know what you have to do lay on the ground,

run or sit down. But silence is horrifying.

MCLEAN (voice over): On day 38, the building was hit again. It was time to leave.

EVGENY: It was impossible to go further into Ukraine. We lived in a different part of the city, though to encirclement around us, as I

understand if we went in that direction. Well, the only way to leave was through the Russian Federation.

And the only thing we were concerned with at the time was leaving this ring of fire. We didn't have a choice.

MCLEAN (voice over): They made it to a school in Mariupol where Russian backed soldiers were evacuating people east to the village of Sertana. Then

a week later, so called filtration in Bezimenne, we're at a site like this one.

They were searched, fingerprinted and questioned by Russian soldiers before crossing the border into Russia to the city of Taganrog likely to the

shelter shown here.

EVGENY: It was the first time we took a shower in over roughly 50 days, right?

LUDMILA: 41 or 40.

MCLEAN (voice over): With the help of ordinary Russians, they made it to St. Petersburg, then onto Estonia. Their story is part of a larger trend.

Most of the two sometimes 300 Ukrainian refugees arriving in Estonia every day are entering the country through Russia.

MEELIS PILLE, SENIOR COMMISSIONER, NARVA BORDER CROSSING: Most of them are coming from Mariupol after having passed the humanitarian corridors. But

there are also those who say they have been deported to Russia, but haven't managed to come here. And we accept them all.

MCLEAN (voice over): On this day, they're catching a train to the Estonian capital, after staying at a hostel run by volunteers.

SERGEY TSVETKOV, VOLUNTEER HELPING REFUGEES: Some were taken by Russians by force from Mariupol to Russia. And later they fled from camps on the

territory of Russia. But others go voluntarily.

MCLEAN (voice over): From Tallinn they're not sure where they'll go. But they're optimistic.

LUDMILA: We will have some difficulties along the way. But if you compare what we went through, everything will be just fine. The future must be

better. We don't have another option.


MCLEAN: And Becky, Evgeny, the man that we just profiled there says he is not a particularly religious guy. But when he was in Russia, he actually

went to church and not to atone for his own sins, but actually to pray for the many, many volunteers and good Samaritans who had to help them while

they were there. People who help them buy train tickets, get food, get clothing, whatever they needed.

They said that they really truly are grateful for the help that they received in Russia, the same country that bombed their homes and uprooted

their lives completely.

ANDERSON: And Scott, any sense of what is going on from them back home? Are they in touch with anybody on the ground in Mariupol?

MCLEAN: It is extremely difficult to be in touch with people in Mariupol. So really the best accounts that we have, the best first-hand accounts are

the people who have most recently come from there. And oftentimes, those people are found here in Estonia.

In this case it took them I think about two weeks by the time they left their home, it took them a couple of days to cross the border.


MCLEAN: And then maybe it took 10 or so days to get here to Estonia. And so their account is probably one of the most recent accounts that we've

actually heard. The government here in Estonia is well aware of one simple fact.

And that's that many of the Ukrainian refugees who are arriving here, especially those from Mariupol, are going to be here for a while, even

though many of them would desperately like to go home. The reality is that given the destruction on the ground, many simply won't be able to, Becky.

ANDERSON: Scott McLean is in Tallinn in Estonia for you, thank you. And just a reminder, before we go, we are waiting for the British Prime

Minister, expected to offer Parliament his first time back in the House of Commons since being fined for breaking COVID locked down, a full throated

apology over Partygate.

We will continue to monitor what is going on at the House of Commons. From me, that is it, stay with CNN, same time, same place from us tomorrow.