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Iran: U.S. gave Verbal Flexibility on two of Three Remaining Issues; Alaska's Sarah Palin Attempting Political Comeback; Odinga says he'll Launch Legal Challenge calls Outcome of Presidential vote a "Travesty"; EU & U.S. have both Received Iran's Response to Draft; Fears Loom over Upcoming Presidential Election; U.S. Crude Hovering Around $90 a Barrel. Aired 11a-12p ET
Aired August 16, 2022 - 11:00:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST, CONNECT THE WORLD: The time here is 4 P.M. Hello, and welcome to the show. Getting closer but not there yet a little more
than a week after the European Union's Foreign Policy Chief presented what he calls his final draft to revive the Iran nuclear deal.
The EU now has Iran's response the U.S. just announcing it has also received Tehran's response and is sharing its views with the EU. The
outcome uncertain, the stakes, certainly huge, made increasingly so by the war in Ukraine and EU sanctions on Russian energy reviving the deal
remember, could mean a lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil, something European leaders are keenly aware of as we move closer to winter in the
And this hour, we're going to hear from two very important sides in this conversation, Russia's main diplomat in Vienna, and an expert on Iranian
politics in Tehran who has the inside track on the Iranian response to the EU. First though Frederik Pleitgen has more on these high stakes
negotiations and the possible sticking points in getting the deal revived have a listen.
FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (on camera): Hi there, Becky? Well, I would say that there is certainly a good degree of
optimism on the part of the Iranians. However, there are still those three key areas where the Iranians would like to see the other members of the
JCPOA. And of course, the United States move closer towards Iran's position.
Now, first and foremost, it's about that probe of the International Atomic Energy Agency, of course, claiming that apparently, there might be some
undisclosed nuclear activity happening at some undisclosed sites in the past. The Iranians are saying that probe was unfair, and being reprimanded
by the IAEA Board of Directors was unfair as well. And they want that probe to go away.
As far as the text it is concerned that the European Union negotiators put forward. The Iranians are essentially saying as far as sanctions relief is
concerned, they want that sanctions relief to be real. And they certainly want to have a situation where the U.S. couldn't interfere in any sort of
Like for instance, by putting pressure on companies that want to do business with Iran, or countries that want to do business with Iran. Now,
at the same time, of course, the Iranians, there's not much trust towards the United States. And they say that they want to make sure that there
would be a price to pay if the United States leaves the Iran nuclear agreement, once again.
A senior diplomat in the region saying that they want to make sure that there would be compensation if the United States were to exit the Iran
Nuclear Agreement once again. The Iranians are saying a lot of that is already inside the text as it was put forward by the EU negotiators.
They simply want some additions to that text. They believe it's something that can be done. But of course, we know we're having followed these
negotiations for such a very long time, there is very little in the way of trust between all the parties. So wait and see the Iranian seeing a deal
could happen very soon, Becky.
ANDERSON: That's Fred Pleitgen, reporting for us today from Moscow. Well, let's bring in Mikhail Ulyanov. He is Russia's Ambassador to the
International Organizations in Vienna, and as such a permanent member to the UN Security Council and an important voice therefore in these ongoing
Sir, it's good to have you with us. Have you seen Iran's response to the EU proposal? And can you tell us what you understand to be the remaining
issues at this point?
MIKHAIL ULYANOV, RUSSIAN PERMANENT REP TO INT. ORGANIZATIONAL IN VIENNA: Yes, of course. I have seen zero reactions to the drug decision on
discussion. And thank them must correct you. I don't think that we should talk about EU draft actually; the text which is on the table is a product
of collective efforts EU, U.S., Russia, Iran - Germany for instance UK and China of course.
It's a collective web, if you wish. EU serves as a coordinator formulated just if you lost the amendments to the text, but it is not an EU draft.
It's the product of collective efforts to be precise.
ANDERSON: OK. But of course, it's - the latest iteration of this is indeed an EU draft. And it's been on the table now for a week and it is this that
the Iranians are responding to our reporting indicates that Iran is asking for guarantees from the Americans.
ANDERSON: That if they were to withdraw from this deal again, they will compensate Iran that there will be a price to pay. What do you understand?
Is that price? And do you believe that Washington will agree to that?
ULYANOV: Well, first of all, this issue of assurances, economic guarantees is on discussion since last year, since spring. So there is nothing new, no
Iranians at the very last minute, trying to make some fine tuning to end something.
But I must tell you that the Iranian proposals seem to be very reasonable business like. They are not too much ambitious. And the Russian reception
of this editorial suggestion is quite positive. I do believe that these amendments, last amendments must be acceptable to all participants. That is
ANDERSON: Sorry, let me just stop you there. Can you be more specific, I'm trying to get to what the specific issues are that is holding up this being
an acceptable draft to the Iranian?
So what are those details and when we know, there is an issue of binding guarantee. We know there is an issue of uranium traces.
And we know that there has been an issue so far as the Iranians are concerned in getting the Revolutionary Guard Corps the IRGC removed from
the U.S. list of, of foreign terrorist organizations. So, which of those three is holding the process up as you understand it at present? And will
Iran accept, for example, the EU's proposal to close the IAEA probe?
ULYANOV: As far as the last question is concerned, the issue seems to be settled, at least in their last response, the Iranians do not touch this
issue. And actually, we have a good solution which was elaborated to participation of EC Russia and other countries in the course of the Vienna
I don't want to disappoint you, but I have full official position as the stocks and I am not supposed to go into details which are supposed to be
confidential. I know that there are numerous leaks to mass media regarding the Iranian response.
But sorry, I cannot participate in dissemination of information, which is confidential. I simply can tell you confirm that the proposals are very
businesslike and reasonable. The ball is now in the U.S. court, I hope that the Washington will react positively. And if it happens, we will have most
likely ministerial meeting of the Joint Commission of the JCPOA either this week or next week. Indeed, we are very close to the very final stage.
ANDERSON: Russia received assurances that it can continue its nuclear work in Iran, despite U.S. sanctions.
ULYANOV: I believe we have such assurances. Yes, it is what we have. Isn't a clear? I repeat this, the short answer is this. We are satisfied we don't
seek for anything in addition to what we have.
ANDERSON: You are not standing in the way of this deal. Does Moscow see the potential return of Iranian oil and gas onto the market as a threat? I
mean, there are suggestions that this is precisely why the Europeans have been working hard to get the deal back on track?
ULYANOV: I believe future they'll show but actually Iran produces oil right now about 2.5 million barrels a day. It sells some oil to other countries
despite the EU sanctions. Iran will be free to sale its oil next year because you need some preparatory work to be done in orders to come back to
the original JCPOA.
ULYANOV: And it will take a few months. According to assessments of experts, the overall amount of oil, which Iran will be able to produce, is
about 3.9 million barrels per day. So it will be 1 percent increase in the world global oil production. I don't think that this amount of oil will
ANDERSON: Well, it's actually about 3.9 percent, if not 4 percent. So I asked you again. Does Russia see that as a threat?
ULYANOV: No, definitely not. For us or as the restoration of JCPOA as a lifter - lifting cough, anti-Iranian sanctions, which are absolutely
illegal, from the viewpoint of international law as a restoration of ratification of by the IAEA in Iran? I believe I'm talking about values,
which prevailed in our assessment of the station definitely. - give you a flavor of installation of JCPOA.
ANDERSON: It's good to have you on sir. Thank you very much indeed for joining us.
ULYANOV: Thank you.
ANDERSON: Still ahead, how things look from Iran's side of the table? I'll be speaking to an Iranian Scholar close the negotiations who say the
remaining issues are not very difficult to resolve.
And as we've been discussing, if sanctions on Iran are lifted, it will mean a much needed infusion of oil supply into the global markets, which would
alleviate at least some of the strain on energy markets from Russia's war on Ukraine that bloody battle for control has been raging for almost six
months now. And there's no clear end in sight.
Today, Russia is blaming sabotage for a series of explosions that hit and munitions depot in Crimea. And now this is the second recent attack on
Russian military targets there. Ukraine has not taken direct responsibility, but it has been targeting Russian ammunition stores and
supply lines over the past week trying to gain an upper hand in an offensive, Southern counter offensive, CNN's David McKenzie monitoring all
of the latest developments for you.
He is live out of Kyiv at this point. Due to the precise nature of this blast, it's quite likely that the Ukrainians hate it. This is not an area
that the Ukrainians were able to strike before but since June, they have had the facility to launch rockets that go a lot further, just explain, if
you will, the significance of this attack in the context of the wider war as it were.
DAVID MCKENZIE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: That's very significant, Becky, and the circumstantial evidence, and it is
circumstantial suggest that Ukraine was responsible, but it's, of course impossible at this stage to know for sure.
Ukrainian officials have not said much about this strike all the one last week in Crimea, but this particular one, so there's very dramatic images of
the series of blasts emanating from the horizon as commuters passed by. It had a significant impact, according to Russian controlled Crimean
authorities on that munitions sites.
And at this stage, they aren't doing what they did last week, which is blaming it on some kind of accident, as you say they blame it on saboteurs
now, whether it is some kind of strike with those longer range artillery and rocket options that Ukraine now has or some kind of underground COVID
team. We frankly just don't know.
But it is significant that there are these blasts going on in Crimea which had long been seen as beyond the reaches of Ukraine's military. Whether it
will have a wider impact on the war? We don't know it will certainly have an impact psychologically Becky and also on the supply lines of the Russian
ANDERSON: David McKenzie is on the ground for you folks, thank you very much indeed. Up next on "Connect the World" it is primary day in the U.S.
and Republican Liz Cheney is about to find out whether she will lose her seat, but defying Donald Trump.
Plus Kenya has a new President Elect after eight reasons in race that many aren't accepting the result and closing the losing candidate. He says the
country is in for a long legal crisis.
ANDERSON: Well, it's what's known as primary day in the U.S. States of Wyoming and Alaska. Former U.S. Vice Presidential Nominee Sarah Palin is
trying to mount a political comeback running for Alaska's alone congressional seat.
Alaskan Senator Lisa Murkowski voted to impeach Former U.S. President Donald Trump who responded by endorsing one of our opponents. And in
Wyoming Trump Critic Liz Cheney is facing a stiff challenge in his state with a Former President is extremely popular. CNN's Jeff Zeleny, he has
more on how Liz Cheney's criticism of Trump has impacted her political future?
REP. LIZ CHENEY (R-WY): We have to set aside partisan differences and understand that there's something much bigger at stake here.
JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF U.S. NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT (voice over): On the eve of the Wyoming Primary Liz Cheney is in an uphill fight to hold her
congressional seat even as she begins eyeing the next steps in a bigger battle ahead.
CHENEY: Many people will come up to me and say I never voted for you before, but I'm going to do it this time. And I say great, and let's keep
ZELENY (voice over): A Republican from one of the state's most storied political families Cheney has become a pariah in her own party, and she's
turning to Democrats and Independents for last minute lifeline.
ANNETTE LANGLEY, WYOMING VOTER: I never thought I'd vote for Cheney, but she has earned my respect.
ZELENY (voice over): Annette Langley says she is a proud Democrat, but she stood in line for nearly an hour to change parties and vote Republican.
LANGLEY: She might not win, but she gives as much support as possible for doing what she's doing.
ZELENY (voice over): The odds are long considering how Former President Donald Trump's shadow looms large in Wyoming where the state's rolling
summer beauty has been punctuated by a scorching political campaign between Cheney and Harriet Hagerman.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We're fed up with Liz Cheney.
ZELENY (voice over): If the crossover vote does it save Cheney for admirers hope it could help avoid an embarrassing blowout that Trump would rebel in.
DOLAND TRUMP, 44TH U.S. PRESIDENT: Liz, you're fired. Get out of here.
ZELENY (voice over): Mike Sullivan is a Former Democratic Governor of Wyoming who served three decades ago.
MIKE SULLIVAN: Wyoming always a trail blazer.
ZELENY (voice over): He planted a cine sign in his front yard to send a message for democracy and the rule of law.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Without regard to her politics. She has reflected herself as a leader. I think history will prove and shoot her the legacy
that she leaves will be a very impressive and important one.
ZELENY (voice over): Joe McGinley, a Former GOP County Chairman in Casper said he believes some Republicans are afraid to admit their support for
Cheney, fearing the wrath from Trump and his loyalists.
JOE MCGINLEY, CHENEY SUPPORTER: There are lots of people out there that are supporting Representative Cheney that are just afraid to speak up
ZELENY (voice over): The outcome of Tuesday's primary will make clear whether such a hidden Cheney vote exists or if Republicans reward her for
not changing her positions in the face of a brutal campaign.
CHENEY: I will never violate my oath of office and if you're looking for somebody who will then you need to vote for somebody else on this stage
because I won't.
ZELENY (voice over): These days Cheney is hard to find outside of friendly audiences at house parties which aids a tribute to rising threats of
violence. She told CNN last month she was well aware of the headwinds facing her.
CHENEY: I don't intend to lose. But some things are more important than any individual office or political campaign.
ZELENY (on camera): Perhaps it's less a question of whether Congresswoman Cheney wins on Tuesday than what she will do if she loses. Now, of course,
she does keep her position on the January 6 Special Committee investigating the capital attacks for the next several months.
She also retains her congressional seat until early January, but her aides telling me that she is planning a longer term battle against her ultimate
quest that's keeping Donald Trump out of the White House. Jeff Zeleny, CNN, Jackson Wyoming.
ANDERSON: Let's dive a bit deeper into Liz Cheney and her opposition to Donald Trump by bringing in CNN's Senior Political Writer, Harry Enten.
Look Harry, it's good to have you. Cheney looks very much likely to lose here. Explain to an international audience, if you will, just how
significant an end to the Cheney legacy in politics might be?
HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL WRITER AND ANALYST: I mean it's huge, I mean look, you look at Liz Cheney, you look at her political history. You
know, she was first elected a few years ago to the United States Congress. She won her 2020 primary with 73 percent of the vote, and now we're talking
about that she could lose.
And here's the other thing, right? Her father, Dick Cheney was in Congress from Wyoming and he was also George W. Bush's Vice President. So the idea
that the Wyoming Republicans would cast her aside, without knowing anything else would be just it's a huge earthquake in political speak.
ANDERSON: These primaries in the United States, they can certainly be seen as sort of microcosm of the sort of broader national phenomena. So what
would a big loss for Liz Cheney here tell us about the state of the country and its attitudes towards Republicans and Democrats mostly as a whole?
ENTEN: Yes, I mean, I think it tells us a lot about the Republican Party. And I think they're basically three things I would point out. First, what's
happened in the Liz Cheney is not happening in a vacuum. So you know, if you look essentially at all the Republicans who voted to impeach Donald
Trump, what you see is that look at this.
Two of them won their primaries were waiting, the Liz Cheney four of them didn't even run they decided to retire and get the heck out of the way.
Three have lost their primaries. If Cheney loses tonight, she'll be for that loss. Voting to impeach Donald Trump is not something that is
acceptable to Republican primary voters nationwide.
And we can see this in the polling data, what we see is, look, is voting to impeach Donald Trump acceptable or not to Republican voters nationwide? And
what is the polling show us it in fact, shows us that the vast majority say that the Republican Party should not be accepting of those who voted to
impeach Donald Trump. 64 percent say the party should not be accepting.
And this just gets in my mind the general view of what Republicans view the 2020 election as. We have a very simple question that we've asked CNN over
and over and over again which is essentially, do you believe that Joe Biden was legitimately elected the President of the United States?
And what our polling has shown over and over and over again, among Republicans is that the vast majority of them say, no. In fact, he was not
legitimately elected. 65 percent on our last poll, so I think Liz Cheney, if she does in fact loose tonight, it's just a microcosm of where the
Republican Party is heading as a whole. And that is it's a very pro Trump party.
ANDERSON: Yes, this is fascinating stuff, important times those midterms of course, coming up in the second Tuesday of November the eighth. Thank you.
If you want more on today's elections in the U.S. head over to cnn.com/election. We'll have live updates to the vote totals, as well as
analysis what these primary results mean for those midterms coming up November the eighth?
Well, there is neither a legally and validly declared winner nor a President Elect those words from Kenyan Presidential Candidate Raila Odinga
says he'll use all constitutional and legal options possible to challenge the outcome of the election.
Speaking earlier today and being formally rejected Monday's announcement by the Election Commission Chairman that his opponent William Ruto beat him by
a narrow margin. Well, the results sparking protests by Odinga supporters some burning ties in the streets and authorities had to be called in to
break up fistfights and scuffles at the national tallying center in Nairobi. Larry Madowo has the latest from a Odinga's hometown of Kisumu in
LARRY MADOWO, CNN KENYAN JOURNALIST: Becky, relative his message to the nation today is that it's still not over that there's still a path for him
to the presidency, however thing and the thing the big headline there is that he's planning a legal challenge to the win of Deputy President William
MADOWO: He did not acknowledge Ruto did not even mention him by name. He focused most of his attention on the electoral commission that he accused
of committing an illegality by not having a transparent process that determined that William Ruto won the presidential election from Tuesday.
And he says that he cannot acknowledge that there's a duly elected vice deputy, duly elected president elect or a winner of the presidential
election because the process to get there was not what is legally required. It's a long shot.
But that's the only option is God really to assure his supporters, many of whom are here and consumer voted for him four times, and four times has
lost the election. Five times actually, he's run. He's lost the election each of those times.
And when I spoke to him two weeks ago, he said the only time he really lost was in 1997. In Reno, those are the times are because the election was
stolen from him, Becky.
ANDERSON: And I remember covering these elections time and time again. What's the mood like now on the ground? Is this result likely to be
accepted if he loses these legal challenges?
MADOWO: I get a sense here in Kisumu, where many people overwhelmingly voted for Ryla that they are subdued, almost resigned to their fate that
maybe the popular candidate was just not going to win the presidency of the country.
We've driven around, we saw some protests and a bit of blocked roads and some tires burned. But today, people are going back to normal businesses
going on. Because can you go through a difficult economic time, there's been a huge amount of increase in the cost of living food and fuel, food
and fuel prices are up, unemployment is up.
People just want to get on with their lives. That's the sense I got. But however, there's still that possibility that Ryla Odinga goes to court and
tries to convince the Supreme Court to allow the election a second time and do another election so that he can have one final shot at the presidency.
ANDERSON: Larry Madowo is in Kenya, thanks. Well, still ahead on "Connect the World" we'll go to Tehran to hear from an Iranian expert on the
progress and final sticking points and what is being called a final proposal to revive the Iran nuclear deal, that is coming up after this.
ANDERSON: Well, over the past two hours, we've been talking about what could be break through negotiations in reviving the Iran nuclear deal.
We've learned that the U.S. and EU have now both received Iran's response to what the EU's foreign policy chief calls his final text on the deal and
there is optimism that this deal can be revived.
Remember, it's been stalled for some time. Now our main sticking point could be Iran's reported requests for compensation should the United States
withdraw from the deal again? I want to get the view from Tehran now.
ANDERSON: Mohammad Marandi is a professor at the University of Tehran, and an expert on Iranian politics. You've been on the show a number of times.
So it's great to have you back on. Your analysis and insight is really valuable.
Earlier on this show, Russia's top negotiator in Vienna confirmed to me that the EU proposal to close the IAEA probe is settled, that would be a
major development. Is that your understanding as well as we work through what is left as outstanding issues here?
MOHAMMAD MARANDI, PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF TEHRAN: I can't comment on details. But what I can say is that it is key that the false accusations as
Iran believes them to be that that case is closed, because if it is not closed, then any future deal will be threatened.
In the coming weeks and months and years, whenever the United States or someone else has some sort of political problem with Iran, they'll simply
reopen that particular file and cause trouble.
So the Iranians are saying that for a deal to be strong, and for it to remain intact, it has to be built on solid foundations and all the issues
of the past have to be resolved, so that the different sides can move forward together.
ANDERSON: OK, and we know that there, there have been a number of outstanding issues, that being one of them, the other is what the Iranians
have been looking for from Washington, which is or our binding guarantees.
Earlier today, we got reporting, that Iran is still looking for guarantees if a future U.S. Administration withdraws from the deal and that the U.S.
will, "have to pay a price".
Now, I know that you and I have had this conversation before about guarantees. What sorts of conversation, as you understand is Iran looking
for if the U.S. were, were to withdraw from the deal, the agreement once again?
MARANDI: Well, the price that the United States would have to pay would be that, for example, companies that come to Iran and invest after a deal is
signed, that if suddenly, like under Trump, the United States simply decides to leave those companies, or those investors don't feel threatened,
that they're secure, because they entered the country they invested in the country, when the United States run into are both a part of an agreement.
So the Iranians want to make sure that the Americans that they decide to leave, that it is costly for them that they do not get the benefits that
they want and also that those companies get protection.
And also, for it to be costly, legally and as well as with regards to the nuclear program it. So Iran wants inherent guarantees where the Iranians
would be able to restart their enrichment program to become like what it was before the deal, very swiftly, so that the United States will have an
incentive to remain in the deal.
The reason why the Iranians want it to be costly for the United States to leave the deal is because the Iranians want the deal to be protected, it's
for the good of the deal for all sides who want to remain inside.
ANDERSON: Whilst the reason for these guarantees from Tehran's perspective, will probably make sense to, to many of our viewers. I'm just wondering
whether Tehran really believes it's a realistic ask.
I mean, some might say its inclusion is frankly trying to buy time. I mean, you know, it's been made pretty clear from the American side, that, that
Tehran is very unlikely to get these binding guarantees.
MARANDI: Well, a lot has been achieved over the last seven, eight months. The tax, the ideal tax of the Americans and European seven, eight months
ago, was extremely different from what we now have today.
And the issues that remain on the table. The concerns that the Iranians have are very limited. They're limited to two or three issues. And the
reason why the Iranians are still concerned about these particular issues, even though almost everything else has been resolved, is because of the
history that we have with the United States under Obama.
The United States violated the deal systematically from day one, whereas the Iranians were in full compliance. And then under Trump, the United
States tout the deal. And the United States didn't pay a price, they didn't pay any price at all throughout that period whereas the Iranians were
paying a significant price.
MARANDI: So what the Iranians have been doing over the last few months is negotiating a deal, where the nuclear where the JCPOA, the nuclear deal is
fully implemented, but that where it is also protected. So this time around, no one just suddenly decides to change policy imposing new
sanctions leave the deal. The deal is safe and secure for years to come.
ANDERSON: I've got two further questions for you. The first is this and I just - we need to be relatively brief because I'm running out of time here.
Is the assessment in Tehran, that this Biden Administration actually has enough political capital to sell a deal in Washington at this point?
MARANDI: Well, there are two things. First of all, ever since Trump left the deal from the Iranian nuclear program has expanded significantly and
quite dramatically, so that's a major loss for the United States when it comes to objectives or achieving objectives.
The second is the United States and Europe is dealing with an energy crisis. And if there is a deal, then that could bring down prices. And I
think that would be very, that would be something that consumers would welcome.
ANDERSON: It has to be said, I mean, the Biden Administration, selling this on the Hill is going to be a tough one. If the Iran nuclear deal is
revived, and there is, as we've been discussing, much optimism, certainly more optimism than I have heard in months and months, will it have the full
support of the Nizam?
Or will we once again, see editorials in --attacking the negotiators as traitors? You understand what I'm saying here and this is a really
MARANDI: Well, in Iran, we have very differing views on many different issues and the nuclear negotiations and the nuclear deal is one of them.
I've been I've come under a lot of attack from different sides.
In Iran, both reformists and principled lists and conservatives, for my take on the situation on my views on the nuclear program, and they all have
the right to attack me as they want. And, of course, they will attack the team and the head of the team.
But ultimately, if the government accepts a deal, then the whole political establishment will accept abiding by his commitments. In 2015 there were
huge differences in Iran over the nuclear deal. And at that time, we didn't have the sort of assurances that we have now.
At that time, those differences did not prevent the government from implementing the deal. Once a decision was made, opponents and supporters
recognize that Iran has to abide by commitment. So even though Obama was violating the deal, Iran didn't violate the deal.
ANDERSON: Right, OK.
MARANDI: And from tore up the deal, Iran continued to abide by its commitments.
ANDERSON: Yes or no. Do you expect this time next week that there will be a deal that the U.S. and Iran have agreed to?
MARANDI: Do you know how many people have asked me that question? I really don't know. I think the chances now are better than any time before. But
the Americans and Europeans do have to make a couple of decisions in the coming hours and days.
ANDERSON: I appreciate your candidness, thank you very much indeed, Mohammad Marandi there. Coming up, Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro hits
the campaign trail. Analysts say, a lot more than the presidency could be at stake. We will show you why, that are coming up.
ANDERSON: Brazil's President Jair Bolsonaro is launching his reelection campaign for what is looking to be a dramatic showdown come the
presidential elections in October.
Mr. Bolsonaro is attending an event in Juiz de Fora, where he was stabbed during his last presidential campaign in 2018. Former leftist President
Lula da Silva threatens to unseat him, but Mr. Bolsonaro laying the groundwork to refuse the results should he be defeated. Sound familiar, Isa
Soares takes a look at what is at stake for Latin America's biggest economy.
ISA SOARES, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice over): The presidential campaign has only just started, but many are already afraid of how it may end, with
hundreds marching on the Capitol in defense of Brazilian democracy.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It happened in the United States of America, and it is happening in this country, the constant attack against our democratic
SOARES (voice over): The man they say stoking the spear is the incumbent president himself, who has been repeating baseless attacks on the electoral
system, promising his opponents a tough fight as he launched his bid for a second term.
JAIR BOLSONARO, BRAZILIAN PRESIDENT (voice over): We are the majority, we are the good ones, and we are willing to fight for our freedom and our
SOARES (voice over): For over a year Bolsonaro has been criticizing electronic voting, saying without any evidence that it's open to fraud. His
call for printed ballots to be used alongside electronic ones, and in doing so has his eyes fully on the presidential prize.
BOLSONARO: I have three alternatives for my future jail, death or victory.
SOARES (voice over): It's a rhetoric that both his starch supporters and party fully back.
CAPTAIN AUGUSTO ROSA, LIBERAL PARTY VICE PRESIDENT: We believe President Bolsonaro's criticism to be valid. We have a portion of society around 15
to 20 percent, which also dealt electronic ballots.
SOARES (voice over): But what his party says is the quest for transparency, many argue is dangerous rhetoric, even prompting civil society figures to
sign a letter for democracy and manifesto in defense of democratic values.
Judge Luis Barroso was the President of the Supreme Electoral Court until the beginning of the year, helping organize elections at a national level.
He tells me the need for a manifesto show some are afraid for Brazilian democracy.
LUIS BARROSO, JUDGE, BRAZILIAN SUPREME COURT: The numbers of times that people ask me if I fear a coup d'etat means that there is something strange
SOARES (voice over): And for the man vying for Bolsonaro's job, the perceived threat and democracy has a clear Origin.
LULA DA SILVA, PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE, WORKER'S PARTY: Every day he offends the Supreme Court every day he offends an electoral justice, and every day
he offends those who do not like him.
SOARES (voice over): Returning to the ballot after more than a decade on the sidelines and after being convicted for corruption, the former
president and Bolsonaro's main opponent says he wants to focus on Brazil's post pandemic recovery.
SILVA: I am older but I am much better with much more strength and with much more courage to make this country succeed.
DA SILVA: But Brazil's success is dependent on a smooth election despite the rhetoric from populace President Jair Bolsonaro. Judge Barroso tells me
the electoral system is strong enough to handle the criticism and says there's some good news.
BARROSO: Around 80 percent of the population trusts the system despite all the attacks we've been suffering. And our role is to assure that whoever
wins in the October elections will be inaugurated on January, the first and the plane is going to land safely.
SOARES (voice over): Still, as the campaign kicks off and the rhetoric hardens, political turbulence cannot be ruled out. And the right could
still be bumpy.
ANDERSON: What a ride it's going to be, so joining me now in the studio polling, showing that Lula is in the lead right now, is that lead likely to
SOARES: Well, the numbers we have from July this is from data foil, which is the most reliable kind of polling puts Lula at around 47 percent,
Bolsonaro 29 percent, the new polling figures are expected this Thursday.
What we are hearing and the team in Brazil is hearing is that's going to narrow. And it's going to narrow for a variety of reasons. The biggest one
is that Bolsonaro is making a big push, not in terms of policy change, because we haven't heard anything from him on that.
But in terms of economic packages, he's putting out welfare measures, he wants to increase the amount he's given to the poorest in the country from
$78 to $118 per month.
But here's the catch is only until the end of the year. So many are saying, well, this is a cynical kind of ploy ahead of the elections. He's also
pushed on Petrobras, the oil state company to reduce gas and energy prices, because of inflation also might not swing the vote his way, Becky, to be
completely honest with you, but it will put them to the second round.
And then the third is the really the fake news machine that is really very much been driven by the Bolsonaro camp. Some of the things we're hearing, I
can give you this little snippet is that, for example, if Lulu wins, then Lulu will close all the evangelical churches in Brazil.
Evangelical base just for our viewers, if they don't know, it's very much the base of Bolsonaro, the beef Bibles and bullet base. And so that has
people going out and supporting him and that is the concern.
ANDERSON: As your piece laid out a lot of fears that the future of democracy could be at stake here, some might say, democracy loosely termed
in Brazil these days. And how realistic is that fear?
SOARES: Look, you saw some of the images there from the protests. So these are protests in defense of democracy. We have also seen a manifesto that's
been signed by more than thousands people in different parts of society, different echelons of society are really concerned, Becky, seriously
concerned about the state of democracy.
I've got a - clip from here, as you can see there, instead of civic celebrations as a part of it, we are going through a moment of immense
danger to democratic normality of rests institutions of Republic and of insinuations of contempt for the results of the election.
And just to put into context for people, this is inspired by a declaration from 1977 that denounced dictatorship at the time. So for Brazilians, this
is incredibly scary 20 years of dictatorship, and what they fear is that Bolsonaro will not accept defeat.
And I'm not saying this loosely here. We have heard from him the last over the last year or so he has said, I'm going to quote him here, there are
three alternatives for my future, being arrested, killed of victory.
And already we have heard from him saying, this is the last push to win. And so the fear is here. Well, if he's not going to accept defeat, are we
going to see Trump like, action from him?
And are we going to see an attack on the Capitol since something similar to what we saw on January 6 in Washington. And that is the biggest fear.
ANDERSON: You've laid out some of the issues that certainly Bolsonaro and you've said some will say very cynically, as addressing as he chases this
election. What are the major issues on the table for resilience in this election?
SOARES: I think it's something that the world is seeing right across at the moment, isn't it? Its concerns economy, inflation, just putting food on the
table that's the biggest concern food prices gone through the roof, more than 63 million people are living in poverty, and this is from beginning of
the year. That is their biggest concern at the moment, the economy, the economy, and just getting by. That is their biggest concern.
We haven't heard any policy shift from Bolsonaro. We have heard from Lula trying to really change the economic policy, take Brazilians out of
poverty, that's one of his promises as well.
But Lula, of course, as you remember, he came to power the height of, you know, when we're talking about BRICs, right, the BRIC countries, the rise
of petrol prices, and he had that--
ANDERSON: Brazil is able to provide this sort of welfare state security sort of--
SOARES: Exactly, it's a very different world right now, it's a very different world, very different pressures.
But people long for that golden moment of Brazil. But of course, as you know, he has that corruption which was cleared and I think Bolsonaro is
pushing that as well. Much as possible various can be very divisive and very heated between these both very colorful candidates.
ANDERSON: Watch this space, always a pleasure, thank you very much indeed. Just ahead a blockbuster bottom line for a top minor thanks to the surging
price of coal. Why the energy crunch is a bonanza for some of the world's richest companies?
ANDERSON: Well, Investors applauding the world's biggest miner by market value BHP reporting bumper profits bolstered by surging coal prices its
full year results beating expectations, envoy to Investors like that.
The boss of BHP is adding that he expects China in his words to emerge as a source of stability for commodity demand in the year ahead. BHP is part of
a blockbuster profit season for energy related companies think BP, Exxon, Saudi Aramco.
CNN's Anna Stewart back with me this hour, record profits for a company related again to the price of fossil fuels of course. How much of this is
related to Ukraine? And are there other forces at play here?
ANNA STEWART, CNN REPORTER: Well, you know what BHP has had a transformational year it has spun off its oil and gas business, its
unified, its London and Sydney listings. But really these results, they all - not oil that we can do both, all boil it down to coal.
This is really a coal result, huge profits from their Australian coal business. And this is something we're seeing across the board, really, as
prices are so high for oil and gas, increasingly, and it seems bizarre, doesn't it?
In an age when everyone's trying to transition to cleaner energies, coal plants are back on the order of the game. And we've seen in Germany, lots
of power plants that were going to be mothballed are certainly powering ahead on this.
And we see this from Glencoe, they doubled their profits in the first half over half of that performance was coal.
And if we strip coal out of these results and look at some of their other commodities, oil and gas they've spun off if we look at iron ore, that's
actually not performed as well as it would have done last year.
And Rio Tinto and other miner that we could look at, they don't have coal. Now their results were interesting because their profits were down 29
percent in the first half.
So stellar earnings, a note of caution from BHP despite this, and you can see the share price much higher today. They do note they're expecting a
slowdown in advanced economies, and they highlight the energy crisis in Europe as a particular concern.
ANDERSON: Interested in seeing that they see China as a standout opportunity for them because we have seen some pretty ropey growth numbers
out of China. We've seen over the last few month's record earnings for big oil companies such as BP, Saudi Aramco and the rest. A week oil price at
the moment, though, what are the expectations going forward?
STEWART: It is interesting. We've had record profits. Saudi Aramco over the weekend was a fascinating earnings report. And it has been a similar story
really across the board.
I think at this stage, it's whether or not we've hit peak profit in terms of these companies because oil prices were over $130 a barrel in March.
They were still very high in June.
But they are coming down and this fear over recessions and we're seeing in all of these earnings reports just looking ahead to softer demand coming
forwards. And when we look at oil is also supplies is more supply going to come onto the market, perhaps of course from Iran if nuclear talks bear
ANDERSON: I love the way you say, a fascinating earnings report out over the weekend. Over the weekend that was what's worrying me a little bit, it
was over the weekend.
ANDERSON: I know you had a great weekend and you weren't reading earnings reports all of the time. Believe me, folks. She doesn't do that all
weekend. But she doesn't sometimes.
In today's parting shots how did life arrive on Earth? Well, some scientists say the answer may be asteroids. You may recall a couple of
years ago, when a Japanese space probe successfully landed on an asteroid and brought back samples of what it found.
Well as so many of those samples published in the journal Nature Astronomy found the asteroid contained some of the key building blocks of life. What
is more, the Psalms indicate Earth's water may have arrived here on the back of asteroids to mediate is possible we get our oceans from rocks. Zain
Asher is up next with "One World". From the team working with me, it's very good evening.