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IDF Calls Operation "Limited" with "Localized Raids" on Hezbollah Targets; IDF: "Limited Ground Operation" Begins in Southern Lebanon; Nearly 50,000 Dockworkers at Major U.S. Ports on Strike; Israel Launches Ground Offensive in Southern Lebanon; Senior White House Official: U.S. Believes Iran Preparing Imminent Ballistic Missile Attack Against Israel. Aired 9- 10a ET
Aired October 01, 2024 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST, CONNECT THE WORLD: Well, this is the scene in Beirut and Lebanon, where Israel has begun a ground war in the southern
part of the country as air strikes continue on the capital and in areas across the south and east of the country. It is 04:00 p.m. in Beirut and
here in Tel Aviv. I'm Becky Anderson. You're watching "Connect the World".
Let's get straight to our breaking news. Well, the Israeli military says it is engaged in fierce fighting in Southern Lebanon after Israel launched
what it calls a limited ground operation there against Hezbollah, with ground troops entering the country for the first time since 2006.
Israel's military saying the operation is aimed at removing immediate Hezbollah threats from villages along Lebanon's southern border. Hezbollah
says no Israeli troops have entered Lebanon. Well, the Israeli military spokesperson spoke last hour, saying Israeli forces have been targeting
areas that were staging grounds for an October 7th style attack planned by Hezbollah's slain leader Hassan Nasrallah.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DANIEL HAGARI, IDF SPOKESPERSON: During dozens of years Hezbollah built terror infrastructures across the border from which he was planning to
infiltrate Israel and make his own 7th of October. They called it the occupation of the Galilee.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Well, Hezbollah firing back, launching rockets today, into central Israel. Two minor injuries are reported. Israel's ground incursion
the latest example of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is ignoring U.S. efforts to de-escalate tensions in the region. The operation began just
hours after President Joe Biden called for a ceasefire.
We've got Jomana Karadsheh who is standing by in Beirut for us, and Jim Sciutto is here with me in Tel Aviv. Jomana, let's start with you. What do
we know about what is happening right now inside Lebanon?
JOMANA KARADSHEH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, you know, Becky, the Israeli military is characterizing this as a limited ground operation, as targeted
raids, going after Hezbollah infrastructure and targets. What we are hearing from three security sources, one with the United Nations
peacekeeping force, UNIFEL, as well as two senior Lebanese security sources.
What they're saying is happening is these sporadic raids across the border that no Israeli forces have stayed on in Lebanon, and they say that Israel
has not yet launched a full-scale invasion. But since last night and into today, up until a few hours ago, we were hearing these reports coming in
from residents in Southern Lebanon, as well as the state news agency, describing a situation where they've had intense artillery shelling as well
as air strikes on different areas around the border region.
And, you know, speaking to residents there, we've heard from them what they're describing is this terrifying situation with people trapped in
their homes, unable to evacuate as these strikes and shelling is continuing, trying to get the Lebanese army to evacuate them, but they say
that they haven't been able to do that yet.
And Becky, as you mentioned earlier, Hezbollah is continuing to try and target Israel with these rocket attacks. What they say is going after
Israeli military targets. This, of course, is -- you know there are many questions about Hezbollah's capabilities right now, after blow after blow
that it has been dealt by the Israeli military in recent days.
And in the last few hours, the Israeli Army releasing a warning with a post from its Arabic language spokesman on X, asking the residents of 27
southern villages to evacuate immediately, and they're asking them to move to the north of the -- river for some of these towns and villages that's
about 30 miles into Lebanon.
So, a very difficult situation, a terrifying situation, for so many of these civilians. And this is almost certainly, just going to exacerbate an
already dire humanitarian situation.
[09:05:00]
As you and I have been discussing in recent days, up to a million people have been displaced in this country in the last 10 days or so. And so many
of them here in Beirut, after the air strikes that we have seen on the southern suburbs, so many people are still out on the streets with not
enough shelters to deal with what is being described by the government as Lebanon's biggest internal displacement crisis ever.
And -- you know you speak to people here. They've heard what the Israelis are saying is happening, describing this as a limited ground offensive. But
I can tell you, no one here really believes this. They say that they feel that history right now is repeating itself.
Back in 1982 Israel launched what it described as a limited ground operation incursion into Southern Lebanon that turn into a full-scale
invasion and years of Israeli occupation of Southern Lebanon and more recently, Gaza, they would tell you, Becky.
ANDERSON: Stand by, I want to bring Jim in at this point. Limited targeted words that the Lebanese and the rest of the world have heard from Israelis
in the past. The last entrance, the last time that Israeli troops entered Lebanon, was back in 2006 and that wasn't -- you know a very, very short-
term operation. What else have we heard from the IDF today about this operation?
JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF U.S. SECURITY ANALYST: Well, they're putting some meat on the bone here as to what exactly they're trying to accomplish with
what they're describing as limited ground operations, raids, which of course, implies not a permanent presence there, going after essentially
firing positions where Hamas, where Hezbollah, rather, has been firing into northern Israel. Admiral Hagari, he described exactly what they did in one
of these villages along the border just a short time ago.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HAGARI: During these operations, IDF special forces entered into Hezbollah compounds in dozens of locations along the border with Israel, collected
intelligence, dismantled Hezbollah's weapons and terrorist infrastructures. Our soldiers entered Hezbollah's underground infrastructures, exposed
Hezbollah's hidden weapon caches and seized and destroyed the weapons, including advanced Iranian made weapons.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCIUTTO: To be clear, Hagari was describing raids that took place not just in the last 24 hours, but over previous weeks as well. I think with the
intention of saying, listen, we've been doing this before. What we're doing now is not a massive change from that.
But the fact is, if Israel's goal, and this has been its stated goal, is to push Hezbollah back beyond firing range, or as far beyond firing ranges
they could manage from the northern border. We have to talk about the Litani River, if their intention is to enforce UN Security Council
Resolution 1701, which required Hezbollah to move back beyond the Litani River.
We're talking 20 miles here. And we're talking many dozens of villages that you would have to clear like we saw them do this one village right across
the border in the last 24 hours, and that doesn't just imply that would require a large number of forces over time. So that speaks to a much larger
operation for a longer, longer duration as well.
ANDERSON: Many will say it is inconceivable that the U.S. had no intelligence about this operation. And indeed, the U.S. have said that the
Israelis have shared options, operational options with them. Let's just have a listen to what President Biden had to say.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOE BIDEN, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: You might know and I'm comfortable with them stopping. We should have a ceasefire now.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Later, State Department Spokesman -- the State Department Spokesman, added this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MATTHEW MILLER, U.S. STATE DEPARMENT SPOKESPERSON: At the same time, there are a couple other things that are true as well, which is that, number one,
military pressure can, at times, enable diplomacy. Of course, military pressure can also lead to miscalculation. It can lead to unintended
consequences, and we're in conversations with Israel about all these factors now.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: What's the U.S. perspective here? What does the U.S. want at this point?
SCIUTTO: Well, listen, they're in conversation. It's not clear that those conversations are moving the Israeli Prime Minister, right? And these
conversations predate the last 24 hours or last week, because we had quite similar conversations relating to Gaza, U.S. officials right up to the
president, saying you need to take more attention, for instance, to avoid civilian casualties.
And yet, we've seen those strikes continue and many more civilian casualties down there. So, listen the U.S. and Israel. They certainly talk.
They communicate at the military-to-military level. That said, U.S. officials and U.S. military officials I speak with are making quite clear
they're not involved in this operation, much as they made quite clear they were not involved in the strike that killed Nasrallah.
[09:10:00]
And there's a reason for that, right? I mean, one. This is Israel's operation. It's making a decision to move forward in a way that, frankly,
the U.S. President would prefer they to try diplomacy first, it seems, based on his public comments and all the -- all the diplomatic capital that
the U.S. invested prior to this. So, listen, based on the facts and what is visible, there continues to be daylight between U.S. and Israeli officials.
ANDERSON: Two things can be clear at the same time. Well, two things can be the position that the U.S. wants to take at the same time. One is that they
have put out a statement saying that Israel has the right to defend itself from threats from terrorist groups. At the same time, they want to see a
diplomatic solution to not what -- not just what's going on here with Lebanon, but what is going on, of course, in Gaza?
I just wonder, does this Biden Administration have any time to get a result a win out of this as far as they are concerned?
SCIUTTO: No, in the simplest terms. I mean, the election is a month away, and then the inauguration is a couple months after that, right? So, you
could argue that you have three months right until to a new president is in place. And it seems that the Israeli Prime Minister has calculated that
during that time period, I don't want to say free reign, but he has more reign to push forward, and success informs the next decision, right?
It strikes me that Israel feels, following these operations against Hezbollah, including killing Nasrallah, that they -- you know he got a
track record to work on. And now he's going to move forward. But it's interesting. The statement just said -- you know that military action can
help, or perhaps enable a solution, but it can't be the solution by itself.
That statement could apply to any -- you know dozens of situations we've been in over the last 20 years, right? Whether it be with Lebanon, with
Gaza or with the West Bank or a two-state solution? And you just haven't -- you haven't narrowed that gap, right? And you haven't narrowed that gap,
frankly, not just between Israelis and Palestinians, between the U.S. and this Israeli government, right?
Because they've been -- they've been pushing for something along those lines, and stating quite publicly, but have not been able to move it seems
the Israeli Prime Minister.
ANDERSON: It's good to have you. Thank you.
SCIUTTO: Thank you.
ANDERSON: Jomana, let me bring you just back in. I spoke earlier to an expert on the region based in Lebanon. You'll know him, Ayman Mhanna, who's
the Executive Director of Samir Kassir Foundation. He's in Beirut. And he explained that Hezbollah, well, certainly this was his position, that
Hezbollah is responsible for what we are seeing. Just have a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
AYMAN MHANNA, EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR, SAMIR KASSIR FOUNDATION: Hezbollah completely miscalculated what the Israeli response would be, thinking that
it could actually maintain a level of operations that is relatively limited, that would prevent Israeli attacks, thinking that the
international community will prevent Israel from attacking, and thinking that Iran will support it more effectively, are miscalculations that are as
lethal to the Lebanese people as the Israeli criminal attacks and aggression over us.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: And we were very specifically talking about the impact there on Lebanon and the risk for further destabilization in a country that is
already, frankly, as many people will describe, it, on the brink. Does he have a point based on what you are seeing on the ground and those that you
are speaking to?
KARADSHEH: Look, I mean, Becky, it depends on who you speak with, but the analyst there is absolutely right. It does seem that Hezbollah did
miscalculate. It thought that -- you know if you look back at what happened right back on October 8th, it began attacking Israel, saying that this was
in response to what is happening in Gaza.
And that escalated into very much a contained, mid-level intensity conflict that was confined really to the border region with daily exchanges of fire
between Israel and Hezbollah. You had people on both sides of that border who were displaced from their homes.
You had casualties on both sides of the border. But it was still seen as an escalation that was within the rules of engagement between Israel and
Hezbollah, as has been the case for years. And Hezbollah thought that he could maintain that sort of that level of escalation within the rules of
engagement continue to put pressure on Israel to try and reach a ceasefire in Gaza.
And they made their point in that last address that we heard from the Secretary General of Hezbollah, Hassan Nasrallah before he was killed in
that massive Israeli strike, saying that they will not stop until the war in Gaza stops.
[09:15:00]
And we saw that happen back in November Becky, when there was a short-lived ceasefire in Gaza, Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies did stop their
attacks. So, it did believe that it could keep that up, that it could keep it contained. But very clearly, they miscalculated. They did not expect
this sort of response from Israel that has decimated Hezbollah's leadership, that has destroyed a lot of their weapons facilities.
And the question right now is, how long is this going to go on for? Because the Israeli military and the Israeli government's goal, they say, is to
return their citizens back to their homes in the north. I mean, is this going to expand beyond that. How long is this going to go on for? What
capabilities does Hezbollah still have after -- you know after all that we've seen in recent days?
And you know, of course, as was with every conflict, you see the situation on the ground. You see that it is Lebanon, the Lebanese people, who are the
ones who are bearing the brunt of it, the civilians, the women, the children, whether it is the casualties, more than 1000 people killed,
thousands of others, injured many, many of them women and children, according to the Lebanese government.
And you also have the displaced, more than a million people. And the fear is, this is only going to get worse. And people saw -- you know what
happened back in 2006 when you had so much destruction after that, 34-day between is -- 34-day war between Israel and Hezbollah. The question is --
you know this is a country that's bankrupt right now, who is going to rebuild? Who is going to support the people?
And speaking with Lebanese officials Becky, before you know this most recent escalation that we are seeing, they were saying that the U.S. here
needs to be doing more, that it needs to be putting pressure on Israel to de-escalate the situation and bring this to an end.
ANDERSON: That has certainly been the message out loud many across the region very cynical as to whether behind the scenes, that has been the
message in Lebanon over the past months. It's good to have you. Thank you very much indeed. You're watching "Connect the World" with me Becky
Anderson. Still to come in just hours, the Vice-Presidential Nominees face off for the first time ever on the debate stage. A look at how both those
candidates are preparing is just ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:20:00]
ANDERSON: 34 days until America picks its next president. And in just hours from now, it is the running mate's turn in the spotlight after publicly
criticizing each other for months now. Democrat Tim Walz and the Republican J. D. Vance will face off on stage in their first and at this point only
scheduled a vice-presidential debate.
In fact, this could potentially be the very last debate of the entire election season. Walz is preparing in Michigan, seen only briefly in a few
public appearances in recent days around town. Meanwhile, Vance is now in New York, ahead of the debate, he arrived on Monday and hasn't talked
publicly about today's showdown much in recent appearances, but Trump had plenty to share.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT AND 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He's going up against a moron, a total moron. How she picked him is
unbelievable, and I think it's a big factor. There's something wrong with that guy. He's sick. He went into the Michigan game the other day, got
booed out. I went into the Alabama game, the 120,000 people went crazy.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Well, Steve Contorno my colleague alive in New York, let's just park what Trump is, searchers had to say. Sources say Tim Walz is battling
nerves ahead of the showdown. What can you tell us about how each of these vice-presidential candidates have been preparing for this?
STEVE CONTORNO, CNN REPORTER: Becky, there's been a bit of expectation setting on both sides going into tonight's debate. We are seeing the Walz
side say, you know, he is a folks here guy. He's probably not as polished as J. D. Vance, certainly maybe not as experienced in these sorts of
environments, which is an interesting way to spin things, because he has been in politics far longer than J. D. Vance has been.
On the other side J. D. Vance's team, despite Trump's comments calling Walz a moron, they say that he is, quote, a wily political veteran who is,
quote, very good in debates, and they have reminded people that J. D. Vance has only been in the political spotlight for about two years now.
So, it's interesting to watch both sides expectations set here on the Vance side, they actually picked him because they thought he would be stellar in
a debate back when they assumed that his opponent would be Vice President Harris. And they have spent the last couple months readying him for this
head-to-head showdown against him, while they've watched all of Walz previous debates.
And he has also maintained an aggressive media appetite, where he has been in front of reporters sitting down for interviews, sitting down for this
political Sunday shows in the U.S., really trying to sharpen him on issues heading into this debate. Walz, meanwhile, has been practicing all
throughout the weekend.
He held a mock debate session with Pete Buttigieg, the Department of Transportation Secretary in the U.S., reprising his role of the opponent.
He was actually Mike Pence in some of the debate preparations the last go around. So, both sides readying themselves for a debate that, like you
said, could ultimately be the last word in this race for both sides.
ANDERSON: Good to have you, Steve, from that debate, of course, later, and you can see that here on CNN. Well, meanwhile, the United States is bracing
for the economic impact of a major work stoppage at American ports. Now, nearly 50,000 union dockworkers are now on strike at 14 major ports on the
U.S. East and Gulf coasts.
Now they walked off the job at midnight after their union rejected a new contract with the U.S. maritime alliance. Vanessa Yurkevich is at one of
the ports affected in Elizabeth, New Jersey. And Elizabeth, what have you been seeing there today, and how big an impact is this likely to have, not
just on the U.S. economy, but on the global supply chain?
VANESSA YURKEVICH, CNN BUSINESS AND POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: It will have a significant impact the longer this strike goes on. We're here in Elizabeth,
New Jersey, at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, many of the members have been out here since 12:01 a.m.
Some of them just taking a break. Behind me, just trying to save up their energy for what could be a really long day, couple of days, couple of
weeks. And just behind me, over my right shoulder, you can see the ports. Nothing is moving. You usually see containers moving back and forth.
You see containers being picked up, put on boats. That's simply not happening right now, because there is no trade because of this strike USMX,
which represents the shippers made an offer 50 percent in wage increases, including keeping language in their current contract that protects their
jobs against automation.
But the union saying it doesn't go far enough, and here at this one port, things like alcohol, chocolate, fruits, vegetables, furniture, all come in
here, which many Americans buy every single day.
[09:25:00]
And then there's exports, as you mentioned, to foreign countries, auto parts that foreign countries need in order to produce vehicles. And then,
just on the U.S. economic impact alone, just a one-week strike could mean $2.1 billion in economic losses just here in the United States.
Now, as for shippers, many of the retailers saw this strike coming and brought in a lot of merchandise to the U.S. early, just in time for the
holiday season, to make sure that people had things to buy around the holidays. However, if this goes on weeks and months, this really could
snarl the supply chain.
The West Coast ports can handle some of the volume, but not all of it, and every day that you have trade halted that has a ripple effect on truckers,
on small businesses. Now, the Biden Administration has been monitoring this strike very closely, talking to both sides, Becky, but they really have no
power other than President Biden, who could invoke the Taft-Hartley Act, which could end a strike.
But he has indicated that he does not plan to do so, and it is really up to the two sides to come to an agreement, but there are no negotiations
happening since yesterday, and I just spoke to the President of the ILA union, who says the only way he's coming back to the table is if they meet
his demands, and that is not really how a negotiation works.
However, he really has been steadfast on what he wants for his workers. He believes that they worked over the course of the pandemic, when all of us
were at home, they were bringing goods in and out of these ports, and he says that they deserve a fair contract. They just haven't seen it yet,
Becky.
ANDERSON: Vanessa Yurkevich, good to have you. Thank you. Important story. Let's get you up to speed on some of the other stories that are on our
radar right now. And China is celebrating a milestone anniversary the people's Republic was founded 75 years ago today, and despite China's
economic downturn.
President Xi Jinping says the country is moving forward. He also reiterated his pledge to achieve what he calls reunification with Taiwan. Mexico is
about to have its first female president when Claudia Sheinbaum is inaugurated in the coming hours. First Lady Jill Biden in Mexico City to
lead the U.S. presidential delegation, said it was an historic moment.
Scheinbaum won a landslide victory back in June. And Taiwan is bracing for a powerful typhoon. It's set to make landfall in the next couple of days
after bashing the Philippines, forecasters say it is expected to hit near the major port city of Kaohsiung, triggering heavy rains, strong winds and
storm surge.
Well, you're watching "Connect the World" with me Becky Anderson live for you today from Tel Aviv in Israel and a lot more on our breaking news is
just ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:30:00]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Excuse me --
AYMAN SAFADI, JORDANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER: The Israeli Prime Minister came here today and said that Israel is surrounded by those who want to destroy
it, an enemy. We're here members of a Muslim Arab committee mandated by 57 Arab and Muslim countries.
And I can tell you here very unequivocally, all of us are willing to, right now guarantee the security of Israel in the context of Israel ending the
occupation and allowing for the emergence of a Palestinian state, independent state, along the reference to allegory, he is creating that
danger because he simply does not want the two-state solution. And if he does not want the two-state solution, can you ask Israeli officials what is
their endgame?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Well, a visibly frustrated Jordanian Foreign Minister, they're speaking on the sidelines of the UNGA last Friday after a joint Arab
Islamic meeting called by Saudi Arabia to discuss the situation in the Middle East. He is reflecting an exasperated sentiment across this region
regarding Israel's insistence on using military might to reshape the balance of power.
They've been pushing for a they being the group that the Jordanian Minister is part of have been pushing for a political and diplomatic solution, for a
ceasefire and an independent Palestinian state, which many will tell you, many, many people across this region will tell you, is at the heart of this
conflict.
That is not a term. Palestinian state, though, that you will have heard Benjamin Netanyahu use in any of his recent speeches. Well now, Israel says
its forces are on the ground in Southern Lebanon, which Hezbollah denies. Air strikes continue and residents are being told to evacuate approximately
30 miles into Lebanon.
There are no indication how long forces will be there. Israeli forces and what this so-called limited incursion will lead to. Yet history offers only
bitter lessons. And one thing is for sure, the tectonic plates are indeed shifting in the Middle East. Let's discuss how they are shifting and why
and what happens next with two regional experts.
Firas Maksad is the Director of Strategic Outreach at the Middle East Institute and a senior fellow there. And Trita Parsi is the Executive Vice
President of the Quincy Institute for Responsible statecraft, both joining us today from Washington D.C. Firas, let me start with you.
Israel has chosen to ignore what was a diplomatic option in the U.S.-French ceasefire proposal table last week in New York, opting instead to take
military action to take out the threat of Hezbollah on its residents who are displaced in the north, given the momentum it has had from these six
the strategic success in assassinating the Hezbollah Chief from a dozen or more commanders. Is there real? Is it any real surprise that Israel has
taken this option now?
FIRAS MAKSAD, DIRECTOR OF STRATEGIC OUTREACH AT THE MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE: Becky, I beg to differ. I don't think Israel has had a strategic success
just yet, it's had a series of tactical successes, spectacular as they may be. Who would have thought that it would have been able to not only implode
the communication devices and network of Hezbollah, but also decapitate its entire leadership, including Hassan Nasrallah itself.
I think that what's the question here is what the end objective is of this military campaign? The stated objective is to return some 60,000 Israelis
to Northern Israel. However, my sense is that the understated or unstated objective of this campaign is to reshape the balance of power, not only
just in Lebanon and --
[09:35:00]
But Netanyahu cannot really achieve that, despite having the winds blowing in his favor and his sails cannot achieve that without a diplomatic a
political end result. And this is when we need to start talking again about a two-state solution, the Arab offer on the table, articulated by the
Jordanian Foreign Minister, Ayman Safadi, but also by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the Gulf states.
And Netanyahu can achieve a number of tactical successes on the ground, but he needs a political horizon, which at this point has not been articulated.
ANDERSON: Trita, you heard the Jordanian FM ask what is Israel's end game at this point? Do you share Firas' assessment?
TRITA PARSI, EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT OF THE QUINCY INSTITUTE: By and large, I do. I think Firas is quite right on several of these different
points, but I do think that there's a premise to this question that may not be entirely correct, because we presume that the Israelis or Netanyahu has
some sort of an end game of some sort of a balanced equilibrium at the end of this.
I'm not so sure we should presume that, because the Israelis themselves have made it quite clear, that they believe that peace actually is neither
achievable nor necessarily desirable, given the compromises Israel would have to agree to get that. So rather a state of constant warfare, in which
there's pockets of peace.
And then every two or three years there's some form of an increase of violence in which Israel does what it calls mowing the lawn is essentially
what Israel has settled for. This is the strategy they have been pursuing for the last 20 plus years. It's just a much deeper and more intense period
of violence than what they had otherwise expected.
But this is, I think, what they are aiming for, and if they can take out Hezbollah and potentially even significantly weaken Iran, they believe this
will give them several years of tranquility. But peace is actually not something that they truly believe is possible or even desirable at that
point -- at this point.
So, I think if we adopt that time understanding of Israel's calculation, their behavior is not necessarily contradictory to this frame, whereas, if
you actually believe that they're looking for some sort of a piece, that's when you have to engage in these intellectual acrobatics of trying to
figure out how is this path that they have chosen, in any way, shape or form, going to lead to a peace for that.
ANDERSON: Much concern about the risk here of a further failing Lebanon, a destabilized Lebanon risking further destabilization across the wider
region, and this is before we talk about what the Iranian calculus might be at this point, whether or not we will see some sort of response from Iran
on Israel. What's Trita, your sense of the Iranian calculus at this point?
PARSI: Well, the Iranians clearly have wanted to avoid this confrontation because of their own internal problems. The Pezeshkian Administration that
is in charge now is really focused on actually healing the very deep wounds that exist in Iranian society because of the Iranian people's rightful
anger against the regime, because of its repression, because of its mismanagement of the economy and in general incompetence.
ANDERSON: All right.
PARSI: That is the priority. Any war with Israel at this point is going to completely undermine any such effort. But if they are left in a situation
in which the -- in which Netanyahu was saying that he's seeking regime change in Iran, which he did --
ANDERSON: Can I just jump in? Because I'm just getting some news from my colleagues in the States in D.C. And we are just getting word Trita and
Firas that the White House says that Iran is preparing an imminent ballistic missile attack against Israel. The full statement here, the
United States has indications that Iran is preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel.
We are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack. A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry
severe consequences from Iran. Sorry to jump in there. I want to get both of your assessments of that in response to what I've just got from D.C. And
let's start with you, Trita, could you be speaking and then Firas?
PARSI: Yeah, I was actually going to get to this point, because with the messages that Israel has been sending, essentially saying that after
Hezbollah, Iran has next regime change, et cetera. That kind of forces Iran's hand in which, whether it wants it or not, war is upon it, and as a
result, it may react earlier rather than later, in order to help salvage whatever strength can be salvaged in Lebanon by Hezbollah.
ANDERSON: Right.
[09:40:00]
PARSI: So, I do think that we are right now in the next 24 to 48 hours, potentially moving towards a much larger war which could have been avoided.
I have to emphasize, if the United States had chosen to impose some restraints on Israel.
ANDERSON: Firas?
MAKSAD: Yeah, listen, Becky. I mean, I have to tread very carefully with Trita on the line. He knows Iran much better than I do, and recently met
with senior officials of the regime, but my sense is that there were two camps there in Iran, one arguing not to be baited into an all-out war, a
direct war with Israel.
That has been the line that prevailed so far. It's reflected also in Hezbollah's position in Lebanon, where they really have sought not to
escalate against Israel and keep the conflict until now, limited to a largely border conflict, a war of attrition with Israel, clearly with the
assassination of Hassan Nasrallah and the decapitation of Hezbollah's leadership.
And we have to highlight that an Iranian IRGC general died in that bunker directing that war, together with Hassan Nasrallah. Clearly now the other
line in Iran, the one that basically argues that, hey, we have to escalate to restore a semblance of much lost deterrence over the past year, that
line seems to be coming to the forefront. And therefore, the late news about a direct response from Iran against Israel.
ANDERSON: Let me just remind our viewers what we are just getting into CNN. The White House says that Iran is preparing an imminent ballistic missile
attack against Israel. Let me read the full statement again, just for the benefit of those who may just be joining us.
Quote, the United States has indications that Iran is preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel. We are
actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against that attack. A direct military attack, a direct military attack from Iran
against Israel, will carry severe consequences for Iran.
Firas, Trita, I want to get back to where we started this conversation and with the Arab Muslims bloc's concerted efforts supported by many, many
across the international community, to push for a ceasefire here in Lebanon, but also widening the aperture, and most importantly in Gaza and
the establishment of a Palestinian state. Hear what the UAE's Diplomatic Adviser to the UAE President told me last week.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ANWAR GARGASH, FORMER MINISTER OF STATE FOR FEDERAL NATIONAL COUNCIL AFFAIRS OF THE UAE: What we are saying is that longer term, clearly, the
policy of containment has failed. The idea, basically, of trying to sort of circumnavigate the Palestinian issue has led to these continued crises. We
really have to address these issues as much as we have to address Israel's right to exist and to security. We also have to address the legitimate
right of the Palestinians to a state.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: And he talked about pushing for a new architect navigating a new Middle East. This is a country that has relations, has reestablished
relations with Iran, as has Saudi Arabia. There is a gulf position keep Iran close in order to work with Iran, rather than Iran acting against
these Gulf countries and around the region.
There do seem to be sort of two narratives working in tandem across the region at present, and unwavering agreement for the need for a viable
pathway to Palestinian statehood, and that is being very specifically led by Saudi Arabia at present, who say that they will not normalize relations
with Israel and push for further economic integration without that.
And at the same time support for the end of the Iranian backed proxies, Iranian influence and militant groups across this region. Can you just and
I'll start with you, Firas, just explain how those two things can be true at the same time?
MAKSAD: Well, Becky, it's a very careful and delicate balancing act that the GCC countries and other moderate Arabs, Jordan and Egypt, amongst them,
Morocco also comes to mind, are trying to strike here between, on one hand, keeping and normalizing relations with Iran, as we saw earlier in the in
the year, but also pursuing conditional normalization with Israel.
[09:45:00]
Premise on the creation of that Palestinian state. And I don't think that could have been any clearer than the statement made recently, about a week
ago, by the Saudi Crown Prince in front of the majesty, which is essentially the Saudi equivalent of the State of the Union address here in
the United States, underscoring that there will not be any movement towards normalization with Israel without a Palestinian state.
Let's be honest with ourselves. There is no love lost in the Gulf for both sides of that coin for political Islam, whether it's, you know, with the
Muslim brotherhood in the Sydney version, or it's the Islamic Republic and Hezbollah and the various proxies. And so, the focus is on their own
economic development, long term economic development for their people, and they're trying to balance that these two objectives in the region.
ANDERSON: Trita, I'll leave the last word to you as we continue to be mindful of what we have just heard from the White House in a statement,
senior White House official now in a statement, Iran, the U.S. says is preparing an imminent ballistic missile attack on Israel.
Should that happen? What do you think the significance and consequence of that act would be at this point?
PARSI: Well, it would mean that Netanyahu has succeeded in bringing the United States into the Middle East, into yet another war. The Biden
Administration promised that this would be the end of forever wars, that they would be pulling out of the Middle East, not drag, not allow the U.S.
to get dragged into more wars in the region, focus on other regions.
But instead, we're seeing that if the United States is giving the Israelis every means to be able to do all the kinds of escalations that Biden says
that he is against, but yet he provides the means for them to do so, and if then the Iranians respond, which now appears to be likely, according to
U.S. intelligence.
And this is a buzz that's been going on for going on for the last 12 or so hours here in Washington. And the United States, and steps in and gets
directly attacked by Iran as well. Then the United States is yet again, just a month before the U.S. elections at war in the region.
And Netanyahu will be had to be crowned as one of the smartest and most strategic actors in the region, because he's been able to score several
victories with just a few moves, including getting rid of the next Democratic President of the United States by getting Trump elected.
ANDERSON: Is the thinking in Tehran that Iran has no choice at this point, bar a response?
PARSI: It all goes back to what they think the Israeli plan is at the end of the day, if it is to go into Lebanon, as much as there will be plenty of
folks in Tehran who believe that Iran has to help Hezbollah and get active one way or another. That is still not the ultimate red line for the
Iranians.
The ultimate red lines for them, is themselves, their regime, their preservation. And given what Netanyahu said yesterday in the video message
that he put forward to the Iranian people, which had a very clear regime change message that leaves the Iranians with the impression, I think, in
which they have no choice.
This, again, is completely unavoidable. This -- there was no necessity for this. But this is the direction that Netanyahu has wanted to drag the
region. For the last 20 years, he has been trying to get the United States involved in a direct confrontation with Iran because it serves his interest
in his view, because the United States is far more capable than Israel in terms of degrading Iran.
So, he needed to have a war that would drag the U.S. into it in order to achieve that objective. And it appears that he may very well be successful.
ANDERSON: I've still got 60 seconds or so. Firas, completely unavoidable, if indeed we do see a response as laid out by the U.S. in its statement
just earlier that it expects an imminent response, ballistic missile response from Iran on Israel, completely avoidable. To your mind,
unavoidable?
MAKSAD: I think we've got to sort of note what Jared Kushner issued on X, a few days ago. If Hezbollah is, in fact weakened, as we all seem to think,
and is thrown off balance, Hezbollah, in many ways, was the first line of defense for the Iranian regime and its nuclear program against any
potential Israeli strike targeting them.
And if that gun is no longer effectively pointed at Israel. Then, in fact, the Iranian regime has lost quite a bit of deterrence, and given the
political reality here in Washington, where essentially, we have a lame duck administration on the precipice of a tightly contested election.
[09:50:00]
Yes, I do think that Netanyahu might very much take advantage of that strategic opening he has to broaden this war and to readdress the balance
of power in the entire region, and if he succeeded indeed in drawing in Iran through what is now being reported as a direct Iranian response
against Israel, then I think yes, Netanyahu might have the war that he now wants.
ANDERSON: To both of you, it's been good to have you. Thank you very much indeed. Regular guests on our show, and your insight and analysis so
important. Thank you. Let's get Arlette Saenz, who is at the White House. Arlette, what more do we know at this point?
ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Becky, a senior White House official is telling us that the U S believes that Iran is preparing
to imminently launch a ballistic missile against Israel. This is something that the U.S. has been concerned about over the past few days, with
officials really watching very closely to see if Iran would try to retaliate in any way for Israel's killing of Hezbollah Leader Nasrallah
just last Friday.
Now, a senior White House official is telling us, quote, we are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack.
They add a direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran. Now, you'll remember, back in April, the U.S.
led this multinational effort to try to intercept a barrage of drones that were sent by Iran towards Israel.
The U.S. and other countries were largely able to intercept many of those drones at the time. So, a U.S. official is telling us that the U.S. is
preparing to aid Israel in a similar fashion. Now we don't have any more specifics from the White House about when exactly this attack might take
place.
They simply said they believe it's being done imminently. Also, no details on where exactly in Israel, Iran might be targeting, but this is something
that the U.S. has been watching with great concern in recent days, and the officials have gone as far to say that if Iran or any of its proxies or
partners tried to use this moment to target American personnel or interests and parties in the region, that the U.S. would be prepared to respond.
Now we know that the U.S. has really tried to bolster some of its posture in the Middle East. They have noted the Pentagon has that they have a
significant capability in the Middle East. Were this conflict to spread out into a wider regional conflict. They pointed to the fact that they have
carrier strike groups, that they have troops in areas that could deploy if necessary.
So, we are still waiting to hear exactly how the U.S. plans to help Israel defend itself, specifically against this potential attack, and what it
could mean for the broader conflict as large as we have seen tensions really escalating over the course of the past two weeks.
And so, we will see what else the White House has to say. What other explanation they can offer for why they believe this attack might happen at
any moment.
ANDERSON: Absolutely! And we await further detail. Meantime, how would you describe the atmosphere behind the scenes at the White House at this point?
SAENZ: Yeah. I mean, the White House certainly has been very honed in on this situation over the course of the past few weeks, as they have seen
this increase in tension between Israel and Hezbollah, this increase in fighting. We know that they have been speaking with Israel as they are
waging this ground incursion into Lebanon at this moment.
And what you have heard from officials here at the White House is that they believe that this operation that Israel is currently conducting across the
border into Lebanon that, that really lines up with Israel's right to try to defend itself, right to go after some of these Hezbollah infrastructure
targets that are along the border.
But they are also cautioning and concerned that there could be a mission creep, even as Israel is promising, that are saying that they are
conducting a limited ground incursion, there is concern among U.S. officials that this could broaden out into a longer type of operation, a
longer type of conflict.
You have also heard specifically from President Biden that his preference in this situation is that they can achieve some type of diplomatic
resolution. But so far, the power of influence of America's desires haven't exactly come to fruition. And now we are seeing this next step, potentially
of retaliation by Iran.
So, this is certainly something that officials here at the White House will be very keyed in on today as they try to continue to offer support to
Israel, but also watching this closely with the fear of having anything spread out into all-out war something that President Biden has said that
they must avoid.
[09:55:00]
ANDERSON: Arlette, it's good to have you on the day Israel announces what it calls a limited ground operation into Southern Lebanon. A senior White
House official says Iran is preparing an imminent missile attack on Israel. Here is the full statement from the White House.
Again, if you are just joining us, the United States has indications. The statement says that Iran is preparing to imminently launch a ballistic
missile attack against Israel. We are actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack. A direct military attack
from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran.
OK, it is a very, very busy hour. We're going to take a very, very short break at this point, but our show does continue. We're not going to do
that. Let's get you to the IDF spokesman, Daniel Hagari, who is speaking now.
HAGARI: -- collaborated in the U.S. updated that they are identified Iran's preparation to launch missiles into the territory of Israel. As of this
moment, we do not identify any aerial threat launched from Iran. We dealt with such a threat before in the past, and we will deal with it now.
I call on the public to continue acting responsibly, as you did throughout the war, adhere to the directives of the home for command, which we updated
earlier today. It's on the home for website. Our staff members will tell you what to do. They're in the studios. Our aerial and our planes of the
Air Force are scanning the skies.
But this is not an absolute defense, therefore you must keep adhering to the Home Front Command. We are in peak alert both on the offensive and the
defensive, together with our allies, the U.S. we follow together on developments from Iran. I will be here to update you on each development.
Is the IDF prepared to attack Iran? IDF is prepared both on the defense and the offense. I will not say anything more than that. Launching towards
Israel from Iran, there will have consequence, I will not say more. We have plans and we have abilities, launching from Iran into Israel will have
consequences.
The IDF is prepared and is operating in Syria, thwarting threats launched throughout the war, and already attacks wherever there is infiltration from
Hezbollah and trying to do so. Our allies in The U.S. central command in the U.S. and its abilities, as were expressed in April, as were shown in
April, they are together, prepared with us.
It's already based on a very high ability of Israel in disguise, and we will know how to deal but this is not an absolute defense. So, the public
needs to act responsibly and carefully as we guide you, in order to minimize the impact of the Home Front. I will be here to give you updates
on any development that will happen immediately.
ANDERSON: You've just been listening to Daniel Hagari there.
END
