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IDF Update amid Threat from Iran, Israel on "Peak Alert"; U.S. Believes Iran Preparing Ballistic Missile Attack, Warning of Severe Consequences. Aired 10-11a ET
Aired October 01, 2024 - 10:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[10:00:00]
BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST: You've just been listening to Daniel Hagari there, who is the spokesman for the IDF, earlier urging Israelis to stay
safe, describing the country in a state of peak alertedness (sic) against the threat of an attack from Iran.
He said the IDF is prepared to attack Iran, launching -- if Iran launches a missile toward Israel, he says that that will have consequences. He said
the IDF have plans and abilities. He said, though, that this is not an absolute defense. And so once again, addressed the public on their need to
act responsibly.
Welcome back to CONNECT THE WORLD. I'm Becky Anderson in Tel Aviv. Let's get you straight to our breaking news. And this coming in to CNN just in
the past few minutes.
A senior White House official says that the U.S. believes Iran is preparing to launch an imminent ballistic missile attack on Israel. It follows the
beginnings of a ground offensive by Israel into a sovereign country, Lebanon.
The White House says it is actively supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this potential attack. It adds that a direct military
attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran.
This comes as Israel's military says intense fighting is taking place in southern Lebanon after it launched what it calls a limited ground operation
against Hezbollah there. Our international diplomatic editor, Nic Robertson, is in Haifa in Israel.
You have certainly been on the northern border earlier today, Nic, and we heard from the IDF earlier. You listened into what we heard about why it is
that they have launched this targeted and limited, as they call it, ground offensive.
That was before we heard word from the U.S. that it is expecting an imminent ballistic missile attack from Iran on Israel in retaliation to the
kind of wider operations, military operations that Israel is conducting at present.
Your assessment of what we are seeing and hearing at this point?
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Yes, Becky, I'm still just along the border, just literally a couple of kilometers from the border.
And we heard this information coming from the White House about this possibility of an imminent ballistic missile threat coming from Iran.
And I asked one of the soldiers I bumped into what he thought about that. And his immediate off the cuff reaction might sound a bit glib to our
audience.
But he said, "Bring it on."
And I think for what the military forces see here, because they went through a similar scenario back in the middle of April, when Iran launched
more than 300 missiles -- some of them were drones, some of them were cruise missiles, both much easier to shoot down and intercept than
ballistic missiles.
But some of them were ballistic missiles that they were mostly intercepted by Israel and its allies in the region and the United States. Of course,
they had a much greater lead time to build up and be prepared for that massive onslaught. And we're not aware that the United States and Israel
have had that same amount of lead time.
But on Sunday, I was at the airbase that Israel -- that Iran, rather, was targeting back in April. Now three ballistic missiles hit that airbase.
It's a very big air base. It's a very important air base and it did not have any consequence within a couple of hours on that air base.
So what the Israeli government will be looking at right now is what is it Iran intends to target here?
Will they be going for military infrastructure as they had, as they did previously when they crossed the Rubicon earlier this year and, for the
first time ever, had a direct strike on Israel?
Or will they be looking to really escalate the situation and try to target potentially civilian areas?
That is a very, very big question and perhaps the biggest question at the moment, not only in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem but in Washington as well,
because what Iran intends to target will determine what happens after that.
How much of a retaliation, how much of an escalation?
Over the weekend Israel targeted Houthi targets in Yemen. That was intended to send a message to Iran.
[10:05:00]
Not to get involved in Israel's war with Hezbollah to the north. So this is going to test Israel in what sort of response they may maneuver as a
counter to what Iran does. And all of that will speak to the possibility of escalation.
But it does feel in this moment that the reality of an escalation and a broader conflict does seem to grow at this moment. But we have to see how
events unfold. Until now, Iran has acted with efforts not to massively escalate Israel's operations across the border.
And the messaging around it appears against its allies' wishes that appears to message that -- and they've said specifically they're not going to
Beirut to try to portray something that is of limited scale and scope.
Where we stand today is at a very -- a very tricky intersection right now, Becky.
ANDERSON: Ben Wedeman is in Beirut.
Nic, thank you for your reporting.
I want to get to Ben Wedeman in Beirut. Kylie Atwood, though, also joining us from the U.S. State Department in Washington, D.C.
And I have to ask you, Kylie, at this point, what more can you tell us?
What further details do we have?
KYLIE ATWOOD, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Well, listen, this statement that we got this morning is a bit of a shock.
Because, over the course of the last 24 to 48 hours, U.S. officials were obviously concerned about what Iran might do as retaliation for obviously,
the major operations that Israel has been carrying out against Hezbollah.
But we weren't hearing specifics surrounding it. Now the fact that a senior White House official is saying that there is the expectation of an imminent
ballistic missile threat against Israel by Iran, that's incredibly noteworthy.
That brings this to a different level than we have been feeling from U.S. officials, frankly, over the last 24-48 hours or so.
I think it's also noteworthy that in this statement from the senior White House official, we hear them saying very clearly that, if Iran does go
through with this and carries out attacks against Israel, there will be severe consequences for Iran.
There is sense that perhaps a statement like this could deter Iran from going ahead with some planned operations; notably, the fact that this
senior White House official is also saying that the United States is working with Israel to shore up its defenses, as Nic was talking about.
When there was the last Iranian attack against Israel, a major attack back in April, the U.S. worked with its allies to really solidify and
effectively defend Israel. And the U.S. is sending a clear message now that they are already engaged in preparations of the like potentially in this
situation.
So there's a lot of questions that we will be asking U.S. officials now, exactly what does that effort look like?
We heard this morning from the secretary of state. He was here. This was before the statement came out. But he did say that the United States stands
with Israel and Israel's defense, even though overnight, of course, there was the ground operation.
Even though Israel is calling it a limited incursion into Lebanon, that the U.S. had been warning against, that has not shaken the resolve of Biden
administration officials to, even this morning, despite that action by Israel, to say that they could continue to stand by Israel's defense.
That is likely informed by the fact that they are tracking this potentially imminent threat coming in from Iran right now. So we're really working to
learn more in terms of the magnitude of this potential threat from Iran.
ANDERSON: And that is, of course, unclear at this point.
Kylie, thank you.
We'll let Kylie go and work her sources. Ben Wedeman is with us from Beirut, right in the center of things that we have been reporting on, of
course, over the past week or so, very specifically today with further airstrikes on Beirut and around south and east of Lebanon.
And the ground incursion, temporary and limited, according to Israel, that has started in southern Lebanon, about 200 kilometers up the coastline from
where I am here.
[10:10:00]
Ben, there will be those, his critics who say this is the ultimate war in what his critics say is his goal of forever wars.
Your thoughts at this point?
BEN WEDEMAN, CNN SR. INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Certainly we are seeing Israel, Becky, on a roll. They have severely crippled Hezbollah. They have
demolished Gaza and did not crush Hamas but certainly crippled them as well.
And perhaps he is looking elsewhere. Keep in mind, within the last 48 hours, in addition to military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, Israel
apparently has also struck Syria and Yemen.
And certainly we heard a -- an address in English from Benjamin Netanyahu to the Iranian people which certainly suggested that he wasn't just sending
a message.
But he was, if you read between the lines, he seemed to have something up his sleeve. And so yes, this may be his moment as the United States is
essentially paralyzed by this chaotic electoral campaign, as U.S. diplomacy or even Middle East policy in general seems to be utterly adrift.
Keeping in mind that the war in Gaza began almost a year ago. And in that time, the United States has shuttled its diplomats around the region but
has accomplished nothing. The regional war that so many feared has essentially, in a sense, begun.
There's a war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza. There's a war between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Is Iran about to launch ballistic missiles on Israel?
This is a regional war. This situation is increasingly dangerous and out- of-control and there's no nobody at the wheel in the White House. They come out with these statements, suggesting they won't be happy with an Israeli
land incursion.
But then we see the news that Lloyd Austin, the U.S. Defense Secretary, has been on the phone several times with Yoav Gallant, his Israeli counterpart,
essentially reiterating the same thing, that Israel, the United States is committed to Israel's defense and its right to self defense.
But what we're seeing on reality, on the ground, is that the threat of regional war grows ever closer. And I've already said there's a regional
war but an even broader regional war involving now perhaps Iran and others. So it's a very dangerous point we're at.
And as I said, there's no one at the wheel in the United States, in the White House, in the State Department, the one superpower that has the
influence to actually change the course of events.
ANDERSON: Well, as you've been speaking and providing what is as ever extremely important analysis, we are just getting further word, further
detail from the U.S.
And it is the following, Ben, that the U.S. believes that the imminent attack on Israel by Iran that we were just reporting on earlier could be
similar in scope and scale to the response that it launched back in April. Let's provide some context for that.
At that time, that was a response to the targeted assassination of those at its consulate in Damascus. Israel never acknowledged that they were behind
that targeted attack on Iranian assets in Syria. But it is assumed to have been an Israeli strike.
So let's go back. And if the U.S. believes that it could be similar in scope and scale, we were talking about some 350 missiles or so at the time,
if I remember correctly, back in April, launched on Israel, causing ultimately no real impact; very, very few of those targets, those missiles
actually reached their targets.
And what was very important back at the time, it was clear that that attack by Iran was telegraphed around this region and beyond. And it was very
clear that Tehran had given a heads-up to everybody that this would happen.
It was about 72 hours as I understand it, that sort of telegraphed window. It remains to be seen whether it is 72 hours this time before we see a
strike.
But I wonder if you want to just add any sort of perspective, given that extra information that we've just received, similar, expected to be similar
in size and scope as the response from Tehran back in April.
[10:15:02]
WEDEMAN: You'll recall, after that attempted Iranian strike on Israel, the United States try to restrain, told Israel not to respond in a massive way
to avoid things going out of control.
And I don't recall precisely what the Israelis hit. But it appeared to be something of no significance whatsoever. So at the time in April, the
danger of sort of this war broadening to involve Iran and Israel on an ongoing basis was the verdict.
The question is, now, with, as I said, the United States, its diplomacy is basically in neutral and the White House seems to be empty, is the United
States going to be able to or willing to be able to exercise the kind of pressure it did back in April to stop the Israelis from massively
retaliating for those Iranian strikes?
That's the question. And certainly what we've seen, particularly in regards to Lebanon over the last two weeks, where the Biden administration came out
with this proposal, ceasefire proposal, that they had crafted with France, that we're told the Israelis actually signed onto.
But then we heard Benjamin Netanyahu at the U.N., United Nations General Assembly, during his speech, not once mentioning a ceasefire. And within
the hour, apparently authorizing the strike that killed Hassan Nasrallah, which only made the situation here in Lebanon even more volatile.
And since then, we've seen a week or now seven days of Israeli strikes and now overnight these limited raids, as the Israelis call them.
So the situation has clearly indicated the last few months is that the United States is just absolutely timid when it comes to pressuring its key
ally in the Middle East, that it provides all the weapons it needs to conduct all of these military operations.
It just doesn't seem willing to put it -- put the U.S. foot on the brake and bring this situation, at least to a temporary pause. It just isn't
happening.
ANDERSON: Ben's in Beirut.
Ben, always good to have you. Thank you.
Let's get an update on what we are then learning and get to Arlette Saenz at the White House -- Arlette.
ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Becky, a senior White House official gave this very stark warning, saying that the U.S. does believe
Iran is imminently planning to launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel.
Now a U.S. official tells us that they anticipate that this attack could be similar in scope and scale to what occurred back in April. That -- during
that time period Iran had launched over 300 missiles and drones toward Israel.
The majority, the vast majority of those missiles and drones were intercepted by this multinational defense, which included the United
States. A U.S. official telling CNN that the U.S. would be prepared to help Israel defend itself in a similar capacity if Iran does move forward with
this attack.
Now it comes at a moment of high tension, where U.S. officials have been watching this with great concern, concerned that Iran could launch a
retaliatory attack against Israel in the wake of its -- the country's killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Now the U.S. has been warning that if Iran or any of its partners are proxies in this moment, try to use this moment to target American personnel
or interests in the region, that the U.S. would be prepared to respond to defend our people.
Now the Pentagon has been noting that they have significant capabilities in the region over the course of the past few days. That includes highlighting
that they have a Carrier Strike Group there. They have also worked to increase force readiness posture if needed to respond to any potential
attack.
But it does come as the U.S. has been trying to watch this incredibly closely, trying to identify whether Iran might be launching such an attack.
The U.S. officials haven't detailed exactly why they think that this attack could be happening imminently or where exactly in Israel it could be
targeting.
But it does come, as you've seen the tension really increasing between Israel and Hezbollah, as you've seen Israel engaging in what they say is
going to be a limited ground incursion into Lebanon across the border.
[10:20:00]
They are trying to target Hezbollah infrastructure. The U.S. is hoping that that will remain limited. But they've also, U.S. officials, acknowledged
the potential for mission creep and said that they've talked with the Israelis about that and any concerns that they might have about this
extending into a longer operation.
So the White House at this moment is really dealing with these tensions on multiple fronts. And right now, they are saying that they are ready to help
Israel defend themselves if there is any -- an Iranian attack heading their way.
And it comes at a time when President Biden has said that all-out war must be avoided at this moment.
ANDERSON: Arlette Saenz is at the White House.
Let me get you back to Ben Wedeman in Beirut.
Ben, as I understand it, we have images coming in of a building in Beirut on fire.
What do we understand to have occurred?
WEDEMAN: Yes, that happened about 25 minutes ago, Becky, about three kilometers south of where we are, yet again on the southern suburbs of
Beirut.
The precise target or the damage isn't -- it's still very early although, in the immediate aftermath of those explosions, we did hear ambulances
seeming to rush to that area. That comes after, just after midnight, there was series of other strikes as well. Some of them relatively close to
Beirut International Airport.
Nonetheless, a few minutes later, we saw a plane land there. So this is just a continuation of what we've seen since Monday before last, 7-8 days
ago, when there was that first day of Israeli shock and awe with more than 500 people being killed in that day.
Now the southern suburbs at this point, it's worth stressing, are largely abandoned because of these strikes and warnings. There were warnings also
last night about an hour and 40 minutes before those strikes.
The Arabic spokesman for the Israeli military came out and gave a warning to just three very large neighborhoods in southern Beirut. And then just 20
minutes before the first strike, specified three individual buildings.
So there's an angle of psychological warfare going on here, where entire neighborhoods are essentially told to evacuate, not only the last minute,
that the Israelis get a little more specific, but definitely the southern suburbs have been battered over the last eight days; battered yet again in
the last 25 minutes, Becky.
ANDERSON: Ben Wedeman is in Beirut.
Ben, thank you.
I'm going to take a very short break at this point. Back after this.
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[10:25:00]
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ANDERSON: More of our breaking news. A senior White House official says Iran is preparing an imminent missile attack on Israel. This comes after
Israel announced what it calls a limited ground operation into southern Lebanon.
Here's the full statement from the White House. It reads as follows.
"The United States has indications that Iran is preparing to imminently launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel. We are actively
supporting defensive preparations to defend Israel against this attack. A direct military attack from Iran against Israel will carry severe
consequences for Iran."
Well, the Israeli military responded a short time ago. IDF rear admiral Daniel Hagari, who is the spokesman for the IDF, says Israel is on peak
alert.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REAR ADMIRAL DANIEL HAGARI, IDF SPOKESPERSON (through translator): As of this moment, we do not identify any aerial threat launched from Iran. We
dealt with such a threat before in the past and we will deal with it. Now.
I call on the public to continue acting responsibly as you did throughout the war.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: CNN global affairs analyst Kim Dozier is with us. Cedric Leighton also with us, retired U.S. Air Force colonel and CNN military
analyst.
And you heard Daniel Hagari, the IDF spokesperson, urging Israelis to follow instructions, to stay safe, describing the country in a state of
peak alert. He said that the IDF is prepared to attack Iran if it launches a missile toward Israel. It will have consequences. We have plans and
abilities, he said.
So let's start with what we understand here, that the U.S. has learned of an imminent attack by Iran on Israel, similar, we are told, to the attack,
the response back in April, which was some more than 300 missiles targeted at Israel, albeit intercepted at the time.
Cedric, with your military brain, let's just get your thoughts are on what we are breaking as news here.
COL. CEDRIC LEIGHTON (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Yes, Becky. Well, one of the key things about this is this is what we call in the intelligence
business an indications and warning problem.
So what that really means is the ability for the U.S. and Israel to determine what the Iranians might be doing. So what we've seen now is the
launch preparations, it looks like, based on what the White House statements are.
So with those launch preparations, then the calculations can be made.
Will Iranians do this?
It seems like they are doing, getting ready to do this.
How long will it take for the missiles and rockets to come into Israel.
And from where would they come?
That then will set things in motion so that the defensive mechanisms that we know colloquially as the Iron Dome but which really include three
different systems that the Israelis have, that those three systems, the Iron Dome, David's Sling and the Arrow system, that they are ready to go.
And those systems are then augmented by U.S. and other assets in the region. So the hope on the U.S. and Israeli side is that all these systems
will work basically like they did in April, that they would actually thwart, for all intents and purposes, the major attacks that Iran is
planning.
So whether this is a symbolic effort by the Iranians or an actual military effort by the Iranians, we have to consider it as if it's a military effort
that they're actually going to strike at targets in Israel. And that's why it would have to be considered in that way.
ANDERSON: We've been discussing the attack in April, was much telegraphed and many suggest it was not designed to actually hugely threaten Israel at
that point. So clearly, if it were similar this time, perhaps there is a message in that.
But certainly as you say, this is, this is a concern.
I want to bring you in, Kim, at this point. There has been much debate about the U.S. effectively not having, as a superpower and as a country
that can make a difference in the Middle East, not having its hand on the tiller at this point.
[10:30:00]
With a lame-duck Biden administration, which appears to be at sixes and sevens and quite confused even internally about what Israel is up to and
when, what's your assessment of the White House's involvement and response?
Albeit, it seems, reactively at this point to what is going on in this region.
KIMBERLY DOZIER, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Well, just to take this week, we've got a mixed reaction from the Bush -- from the Biden administration
in that you heard from President Biden in the past 24 hours, saying that a ceasefire with Hezbollah was the preferred option.
Not this continuing ground incursion by Israel into the Lebanese border area.
But earlier this week, you had a readout of a phone call between the Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin and Israel's defense minister, in which
Austin said he understood Israel's need for this operation to take apart the infrastructure that is being used by Hezbollah to attack.
And that includes hundreds of miles of tunnels in this border area, in which Israel believes that there are some 100,000 of the 150,000 missiles
and rockets remaining that it hasn't been able to destroy yet because they're simply buried too deep in hard rock earth.
And the only way to track all these missiles down is to track and map the tunnel network. That's why you've got to go in on the ground to dismantle
and destroy it.
The problem is, last time, as Cedric was saying, last time the missiles were launched by Iran, it was just from Iran to Israel.
None of the Hezbollah ballistic missiles were also included. They're much closer; there's less warning, there's less time to get all of those aerial
defenses coordinated to respond and knock those missiles out of the sky.
And the Iranian missiles that Hezbollah has stationed north of Israel, they can reach every major populated Israeli area in a matter of minutes;
whereas, you know, the last time in the spring when Iran attacked, it was aiming at things like military bases, government buildings.
This time it might go for populated areas and that is when you get into the escalation spiral.
ANDERSON: Yes.
Absolutely.
To both of you, very much appreciate your time. Thank you very much, indeed, for joining us.
Folks, we will be right back after this.
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[10:35:00]
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UNIDENTIFIED MALE (voice-over): This is CNN breaking news.
Welcome back to CONNECT THE WORLD. I'm Becky Anderson for you in Tel Aviv, where the time is -- what time is it?
It is 5:34 in the afternoon on the day that Israel announces what it calls a limited ground operation into southern Lebanon. The White House says Iran
is preparing an imminent missile attack on Israel, describing it as ballistic missile attack.
A statement says, "The United States has indications that Iran is preparing imminently to launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel. We are
actively supporting defensive preparations," the statement says, to defend Israel against this attack. A direct military attack from Iran against
Israel will carry severe consequences for Iran."
The IDF spokesperson addressed the threat last hour, saying there are no immediate signs of an aerial threat from Iran. But if it does happen,
Israel will be ready. Have a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REAR ADMIRAL DANIEL HAGARI, IDF SPOKESPERSON (through translator): Our allies in the U.S. Central Command, in the U.S. and its abilities as were
expressed in April, as were shown in April, they are together prepared with us. It's already based on a very high ability of Israel in disguise. And we
will know how to deal.
But this is not an absolute defense. So the public needs to act responsibly and carefully as we guide you.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Abas Aslani is a journalist and a senior research fellow at the Center for Middle East Strategic Studies, joining us now from Tehran.
And from where you are, what is your assessment of what we are learning and the news that we are reporting here on CNN?
ABAS ASLANI, JOURNALIST AND SENIOR RESEARCH FELLOW, CENTER FOR MIDDLE EAST STRATEGIC STUDIES: Well, Becky, with the exception of the April attacks,
Iran has operated short of a war in the region, leveraging its allies in the region against Israel.
But contrary to what happened previously, when Hamashi (ph) was assassinated in Tehran or Iran's embassy in Syria was targeted, this time,
we are not hearing that much of warning or threats about a retaliation against Israel.
And this is quite telling. And some might speculate that this could be meaning that Iran might be prepared to do something. But there are no clear
substantial signs for this as Iran sees this part of a long battle where a -- an isolated measure would not carry that much significance.
This is something that Iran's top security chief said today. This means that this is part of a broader conflict in the region, to be seen in a
broader perspective. And Iran, despite the tactical gains for Israel, we have to yet wait to see that these translate into a strategic military and
political victory.
A victory for Israel could be stopping Hezbollah attacks and returning those residents to the northern parts as well as decoupling Lebanon fronts
from Gaza.
When this happens, I think this can translate into victory for Israel. But we have to yet wait for this. This has not happened so far. And Iran didn't
respond previous time to the Ismail Haniyeh assassination because it was promised a ceasefire in exchange for no response.
But this didn't happen. This resulted in Israel assassinating Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah. This might somehow provoke Iran in order to revive
the deterrence to do something unless this could be a kind of invitation for further attacks in future.
ANDERSON: So if this response, is realized from Iran -- and that's a big if at this point -- was this ultimately inevitable in, as you say, an
effort to reestablish deterrence and a reputation, it must be said, both internally in Iran and around this region?
ASLANI: Becky, you know, Iran has gained an experience in April attacks against Israel then how it can act against Israel in case of any broader
conflict. And I think the second element which matters a lot is from Hezbollah capabilities.
[10:40:03]
Specifically its command and control system. Some say that the fighting capabilities of Hezbollah have not been undermined significantly. And when
the group recovers from choosing a leader, a new leader, they can be able - - they will be able in order to response -- respond against Israel.
Because the threat perception Israel has from the Hezbollah side is as big as the threat it must -- it can be seeing from the Iranian side. So that
perception can matter a lot in responding against Israel.
For Iran, this is though also the issue of the deterrence and that can also, I think, set up the future trajectory that how Israel can respond.
But if Iran does not respond, this will mean Iran -- Israel will not stop.
And this will mean further targeting of resistance front officials and commanders or even trying to conduct actions directly against Iran. So
despite those likely repercussions and consequences, I think Iran sees no choice but to react.
ANDERSON: And last question to you before I let you go, you are absolutely right to point out that many countries around this region, even those who
do not have official ties with Iran, have been to Tehran over this past period of months, encouraging Tehran to exercise restraint.
And you're right to point out that that was on the back of a promise of a ceasefire -- or at least negotiations and a window for a ceasefire.
Look, that does seem, both on the Lebanon story and on the Gaza file, a long way away at this point. But if Iran does respond at this point, it
knows that it will be ratcheting up a wider regional conflict here and there will be a counter response, likely from Israel.
What would that look like?
And how concerned are those making decisions in Tehran about ratcheting up a wider conflict at this point and the impact that could have, for example,
on nuclear installations in Iran and on the country as a whole?
ASLANI: The calculus here in Tehran is that, you know, conducting a direct or any kind of attacks against Israel could carry its own risks. But no
response will carry further risks and bigger ones.
There have been calls on Iran in order to exercise restraint. This has been coming from the regional countries as well as international organizations.
Tehran, you know, exercised this once. The Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh was assassinated in Tehran in exchange for a ceasefire in Gaza.
But the results turned out to be a further escalation by Israel. And the calculus is also that, if Iran stops it here, even if it shows restraint,
this will further embolden Israel in order to not to limit the war into Lebanon but in order to target other sites in other regional countries.
Or even maybe to conduct some operations against some sites in Iran. So in order to stop that cycle, Tehran thinks that it needs to do something in
order to revive that dynamic or the deterrence, which the both sides are pushing to the limit in order to redefine those rules of engagement and the
deterrence.
So Iran thinks that, in order to somehow reestablish that, you know, relative, let's say, the escalation or at least stability, it needs to do
something in order to stop Israel.
ANDERSON: Abas, it's good to have you on. I know it's 6:15 pm where you are in northern Israel. It is 5:44, as is the time in Beirut at this point
as well. Just in that short time zone frame, you can see how close this region is.
A short time ago, the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon posted on X, saying, quote, "Civilians must be protected. Civilian infrastructure must
not be targeted.
[10:45:00]
"And international law must be respected. We strongly urge the parties to recommit to Security Council resolution 1701, signed back in 2006, as the
only viable solution to bring back stability in this region."
They are of course referring to the ground operation that Israel has launched in southern Lebanon. I do want to bring in Andrea Tenenti. He is
the spokesperson for the U.N. Interim Force in Lebanon. He joins me now.
Thank you for joining us. Conflicting reports about what is happening on the ground in south Lebanon and Israeli forces say they are conducted
limited -- conducting a limited operation. A source from your team told CNN Israel is conducting sporadic raids.
Just explain what you understand to be going on.
ANDREA TENENTI, SPOKESPERSON, U.N. INTERIM FORCE IN LEBANON: Well, as you said, it's like the IDF notified the mission yesterday about the
possibility of limited incursions in south Lebanon.
We've seen sporadic incursions last night but they went back immediately inside Israeli territories. Today, there'll be no incursions as far as we
have been monitoring the head of operations. But the shelling has been heavy, heavy not only in south Lebanon, in Beirut right now and other parts
of the country.
So the bombing is continuing. And the concerns for a ground incursion is definitely there. But we have already said that we'd be staying in our
position close to the blue line, with over 10,400 troops from 50 countries.
ANDERSON: We've seen that UNIFIL statement. You are in touch with the Israeli military.
You've said that.
What else have they told you?
What sort of guarantees, if any, have they provided to UNIFIL at this point.
TENENTI: Well, difficult to talk about guarantees, of course, as we said in the statement. At the end, it's their responsibility of the parties also to
ensure the security and safety of peacekeepers.
We are not the target. We're here to try to de-escalate the tension. We are here to try to assist that and trying to find viable solutions. Of course,
were not a mission with a political background. But we have capabilities of bringing the parties together in terms of communications.
And again, trying to de-escalate the tension together with main stakeholders. So there is a lot of work that we are doing. It is their
responsibility of the parties to ensure our security. And there are no guarantees but we are staying on the ground because that's our role.
ANDERSON: Are your troops on the ground but in barracks or at -- in station?
Are they actually on the ground in the area that they are assigned to at this point?
Are they in southern Lebanon on the ground in the areas that they should be protecting?
TENENTI: Of course, we have around 50 bases along the blue line with our troops at the moment.
As you mentioned, because of security situation inside those spaces, there are few, very limited numbers of logistic movements. We are trying to
increase the number of operations and also to go back to work in support of the Lebanese army in south Lebanon.
Most of the work in these days is carried out more at the diplomatic level and through the head of mission, of course, Commander General Lazaro in the
mission to try to deconflict the situation.
And again, urging the parties that there is no other solution than the implementation of 1701. That's --
(CROSSTALK)
ANDERSON: Right.
TENENTI: -- provision elements.
ANDERSON: In his briefing just a few hours ago, the IDF spokesman, Daniel Hagari, had this message to the international community regarding that
resolution. Have a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HAGARI (through translator): For years, Israel has warned the world that Hezbollah is violating international law and United Nations Security
Council resolution 1701, which prohibits the presence of armed militants and weapons in southern Lebanon.
This was a resolution that the international community agreed on and Lebanon and UNIFIL failed to enforce.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: You have failed in your mission as far as the IDF is concerned.
Your response?
TENENTI: Well, the enforcement of a mandate, the implementation of the mandate is not up to the mission. The implementation is up to the parties.
We can provide a window of opportunity for them to implement and be committed to that, to the mandate of the mission.
But without these commitments, of course, it's very difficult. We have to think that, before 2023, October last year, the south of Lebanon had
witnessed a long period of stability.
[10:50:07]
We need to go back to that. Definitely a lot of provisions were not implemented. The presence of weapons is definitely there and they're right;
violation of airspace has been continued. We need to deploy more Lebanese army.
But in order to deploy Lebanese army to bring state authority to the south of Lebanon, there is also a need for the --
(CROSSTALK)
ANDERSON: Right.
TENENTI: -- national (INAUDIBLE) to support their efforts.
ANDERSON: That -- because that Lebanese armed forces, the army of Lebanon has insufficient resources and is not sufficiently organized in order to be
able to defend the country, correct?
TENENTI: We need -- Lebanese army, they're incredibly committed army. They went through many difficult the years after the 2006 war, the war in Syria.
Millions of refugees, explosion of the port, financial crisis hasn't been an easy period for them.
But it's important for the international community to try to provide this kind of assistance.
And that's where we are trying to do to bring more Lebanese army to the south of Lebanon, to increase their capabilities and to bring state
authority back to the south of Lebanon and not to have weapons in the south of Lebanon, only the weapons of the Lebanese army. I know it's a difficult
task. But it's part of 1701.
ANDERSON: Understood. And it's good to have you and thank you. I mean, I know, your time is precious and we very much appreciate it. You're helping
for us to further understand what is going on on the ground. Thank you.
We'll be right back, folks, after this.
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ANDERSON: Our breaking news this hour, the White House says Iran is preparing an imminent missile attack on Israel. In a security alert a short
time ago, the U.S. embassy in Israel directed all government personnel and their family members to shelter in place until further notice.
Meantime, a source familiar with the matter tells CNN that the U.S. had warned Israel on Tuesday morning about the threat from Iran and that it
comes after Israel launched what it calls a limited ground operation into southern Lebanon.
That incursion the latest example of prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu ignoring U.S. efforts to de-escalate tensions in the region. The operation
began just hours after President Joe Biden called for a ceasefire.
Well, Hezbollah has been firing back, launching rockets into central Israel. Two minor injuries are reported. Well, let's just consider the idea
of, quote, "targeted and limited" raids into southern Lebanon. We've heard that before.
Remember, Rafah in Gaza?
Before launching its offensive there, the IDF also said it would carry out a, quote, "limited operation."
Well, this is what Rafah looks like now.
[10:55:00]
Before I go, I want to leave you with these final thoughts, written by CNN's Paula Hancocks, my colleague.
"Limited is a subjective word. What Israel sees as a targeted and limited ground operation in southern Lebanese villages may look anything but to the
civilians on the ground."
I'm Becky Anderson in Tel Aviv. CNN continues after this short break. Stay with us.
END
