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Hamas Leader Yahya Sinwar Believed Killed in Gaza Operation. Aired 10-11a ET

Aired October 17, 2024 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[10:00:00]

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE (voice-over): This is CNN breaking news.

BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST (voice-over): And you're watching CONNECT THE WORLD.

I'm Becky Anderson. Let's get you straight to our breaking news this hour.

Israel's military announcing that it is investigating the possibility that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar was killed in a strike during its operations in

Gaza. Let's get you straight to Nada Bashir, who is covering this from London.

Fawaz Gerges is also with us. He's professor of international relations at the London School of Economics, a regular guest on this show.

Let me start with you, Nada.

What do we know at this point?

NADA BASHIR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, we are still getting more information and as we speak from the Israeli military, waiting for updates

on this latest development. As you mentioned, Becky, a statement issued by the IDF saying that they are checking the possibility that one of those

militants killed.

They say they killed or eliminated in their words, three terrorists that one of those militants killed may have been Yahya Sinwar, the leader of

Hamas. They've said that at this stage the identity of all three cannot be confirmed but they are carrying out checks.

We await updates from the Israeli military on this. But of course, Yahya Sinwar has been a key target of the Israeli military throughout the course

of this war, which has lasted of course, over more than a year.

Now they have expressed from the outset of this war their intention to take out the top leaders of Hamas and Hamas' allies. And that is certainly what

we have been seeing.

Of course, we've seen military leaders within Hamas, Muhammad Al-Deif, of course, killed and assassinated. We have seen Ismail Haniyeh in July,

killed and assassinated in Iran, the political bureau chief of Hamas.

We've seen a deputy political bureau chairman Saleh al-Arouri assassinated, killed in a direct strike in Beirut in January. So we have been seeing

these senior leaders killed within Hamas, both within Gaza and outside of Gaza.

We've also seen key allies, of course, being targeted, including, of course, Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah in Lebanon. But of

course, there has been questions around what that actually could mean.

The significance of this, whether this is perhaps enough for the Israeli government to declare that they have in some ways, won this war. Maybe,

perhaps whether this could be the beginning of the end.

We know of course, according to U.S. assessments that Hamas' military capabilities have now been downgraded to a point where they are not in a

position to carry out an attack of this scale which we saw on October 7th.

The Israeli government has persistently reiterated, particularly prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, that he intends to see this war out until all

of Israel's expressed intentions have been achieved, namely, the full eradication of Hamas as an organization.

Whether that can be achieved, whether you can get --

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ANDERSON: Right.

BASHIR: -- idea that has been in place for decades, remains to be seen but this is a significant blow to Hamas nonetheless.

ANDERSON: And it is not clear how long the IDF believe identification of the body they believe is Sinwar will take at this point. Of course, we'll

keep our viewers bang up-to-date as we get more information.

Fawaz, let me bring you in at this point. A key architect of course, of the October the 7th terror attack on Israel, which left 1,200 people dead, 250

hostages in both Hamas and others' hands in Gaza, just how significant do you believe this death would be if indeed it is the Hamas chief, Yahya

Sinwar?

FAWAZ GERGES, DIR. MIDDLE EAST CENTER, LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS: Well, I mean, I think the second part of your point is very important. If it's

confirmed, right, because part of the strategy could be on the part of Israeli intelligence to flush him out.

But if it's confirmed that Yahya Sinwar is killed, this could be a significant blow to Hamas, significant. He was the occupant of the Hamas

attacks on Israel.

He is now the -- he was the political leader, the most iconic fighter in the Hamas organization, highly popular throughout. I mean, Palestinian land

and the diaspora. But look, this fight has never been about one person, Becky, as you know. Israel has been assassinating Palestinian leaders for

eternity.

[10:05:03]

The root causes of this conflict will continue. The vicious cycle will continue. So even though, if it's confirmed, if Yahya Sinwar is confirmed

dead, Hamas will really -- could have suffered a significant blow.

Hamas already has become, has turned, has morphed into a guerrilla fight. Now as you well know, even the Americans and the Israelis say that the

military capabilities of Hamas have been degraded. But Hamas is waging a guerrilla warfare in every part of Gaza, in the north of Gaza and central

Gaza, in Rafah.

So the fight will go on. Here's what my fear is. My fear is that the killing of Yahya Sinwar, if it's confirmed, this will most likely embolden

Benjamin Netanyahu. His popularity will most likely skyrocket in Israel much more than it is.

He will tell the Israelis and the Americans, I have told you so. Total victory. And this could really basically play into Netanyahu's hands and

the extreme Zionist religious coalition in order to expand the war, not just into Lebanon but even vis-a-vis Iran as well.

ANDERSON: You could argue, of course, this is total victory. Whilst Netanyahu does not have the hostages back, the assassination or the death

of Yahya Sinwar, if indeed that is confirmed, would be an -- all but a total victory as far as Netanyahu is concerned, one assumes, of Hamas.

Let me bring in Jeremy Diamond at this point.

I mean, what would Netanyahu's calculation be at this point?

Again, we have to keep underlining if indeed the Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has been killed.

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT: Well, there certainly is the possibility that this will embolden Netanyahu, make him dig in on this

notion of total victory.

But there's also an alternative and that is to say that this offers Netanyahu the picture of victory that he has been looking for that would

have been impossible to achieve without the death of Yahya Sinwar.

And indeed now, if indeed Sinwar is confirmed to have been killed, this could provide a window of opportunity for the Israeli prime minister and

for his government to say, to declare victory, to say that Hamas, as we know already, is no longer an effective governing or military structure

inside of Gaza.

It effectively operates now as a guerrilla force and that going forward, Netanyahu could say that victory has been achieved. And indeed move to

transition to ending the war. And moving to a post-war phase of this conflict.

That is far from assured, of course, at this stage. But there could be an opening. But make no mistake, regardless of what happens, this changes

everything. If indeed Yahya Sinwar has been killed.

You know, we have seen, as Israel has taken out numerous senior Hamas leaders, Mohammed Deif, the head of the al-Qassam Brigades, Hamas' military

wing, Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas. He was also killed by Israel.

And so now you really will have a Hamas force that will be somewhat rudderless.

And the question is, who will step into that void?

And it raises the question of whether or not this will make it easier to achieve a ceasefire and hostage deal or perhaps whether it will make it

harder. I was speaking to one source who said, make no mistake. There's the possibility that, without any kind of obvious leader for Hamas, you could

see chaos.

And you could see risks to the lives of the hostages in the absence of clear direction from a senior leader.

ANDERSON: And that was the point that Fawaz was making.

Fawaz, let me bring you back in. The death of Hassan Nasrallah has not stopped the attacks from Hezbollah on Israel and Israeli assets, of course.

That front in this wider war continues.

Your sense of what we might expect in the days going forward here?

GERGES: Well, sadly, I don't think I see a light at the end of the tunnel. This fight has never been about one individual, whether it's Muhammad Al-

Deif or Yahya Sinwar or even Hassan Nasrallah, who was the head, the head of the entire axis of resistance, Iran's allies in the region.

Already Hezbollah has been able to take the initiative to recover, to rebuild its rank and file and it's beginning to fight back as we know. In

the case of Hamas, you have, you already have a guerrilla warfare in Gaza.

The reason why I'm not optimistic about ending the war in Gaza, Becky, because Netanyahu and his coalition will never leave Gaza. They have made

it very clear we have already established a buffer zone.

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They have shrunk Gaza. They are also on the Philadelphia (sic), basically a path between Egypt and Palestinian Territories. And for Hamas now, without

the top leader, Yahya Sinwar, if he is confirmed that, I don't think they will ever trust Netanyahu to end the war itself.

Though the hostages, I take it that the lives of the hostages, not only their lives are at stake but even a ceasefire, a permanent ceasefire in

Gaza is really a far-fetched, sadly, scenario.

But in the case of Lebanon, this really, I don't think we're going to see an end to the war, to Israel's war in Lebanon in the next few weeks because

of the fact is that Netanyahu is trying to achieve, to also create a buffer zone, security and force Hezbollah to accept very draconian ceasefire

conditions in the next few days, the next few weeks.

ANDERSON: And there will be no tears shed, you know, I have to say, by many in leadership in the part of the world where I am, if indeed the Hamas

chief is dead. Nor was there any love lost for the Hezbollah chief, Hassan Nasrallah.

There is, of course, this sort of ongoing sense that a new architecture is needed in the region of the Middle East and what is going on at present,

which is a region in complete tumult as a result of what is going on between Israel and Iran, Israel and Hamas, Israel and Hezbollah, doing

nobody any favors.

And we sit at the brink of a wider war at this point. Your concern is, that just by taking out the very senior figures in these groups, that the fight

-- and therefore the getting beyond conflict in this region -- just continues.

GERGES: Absolutely.

I mean, I think, look, how many, how many Palestinian leaders has Israel assassinated over the last 30 or 40 years?

Has the conflict ended?

On the contrary, without a political vision, I mean, the reality is, I mean, without ending Israel's military occupation of Palestinian land,

you're going to have more rounds. Even if there was, even if we get a cease-fire in Gaza, this not does not really mean ending it. We will

witness the end of the war between Israel and the Palestinians.

At the end of the day, Becky, Israel faces a strategic dilemma without ending its military occupation of Palestinian lands, without granting the

Palestinians self-determination. Sadly, this is really becoming more of a forever war that is not just in Gaza but the West Bank.

We hardly talk about the West fan. Think of what's been happening in the West Bank, the occupied West Bank, and now Lebanon. And as you said, we

could wake up tomorrow and see all-out Iraq War between Israel and Iran, sucking the United States in back into the killing fields of the Middle

East.

ANDERSON: Fawaz Gerges, joining us today. Thank you, Fawaz.

Let's get you CNN's Jeremy Diamond, my colleague, rejoining us from Tel Aviv with, as I understand it, new information.

What are you learning?

DIAMOND: Well, Becky, if indeed Sinwar is confirmed to have been killed here, it will not be as a result of any kind of special Israeli military

operation, anything intelligence-driven.

Instead, what I'm told by two Israeli sources familiar with the matter is that the man believed to be Yahya Sinwar, who was with two other militants,

was engaged by Israeli infantry troops, who were just engaging in routine military operations in Gaza, effectively happening upon the man who may

indeed end up being Yahya Sinwar.

After the battle ended, the troops found a body resembling Sinwar's. And I'm told that they then alerted senior commanders.

And since then, of course, there has been a process between the Israeli military and its intelligence services to work, to try and confirm whether

or not this was indeed Sinwar's body through DNA analysis primarily but other means, as I understand it as well.

And this is a process that we don't expect to take very long. It will likely be a matter of minutes or hours before we know whether or not this

was Sinwar. But the indications at this point certainly are leaning in the direction that this was Sinwar.

And again, the fact that these two sources are telling me that this was not any kind of special operations raid, not an intelligence operation but

rather just regular infantry troops in Gaza engaging Palestinian militants that they saw and then realizing after the fact that this does indeed

appear to have been Yahya Sinwar.

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ANDERSON: And we have a statement, as I understand it, the prime minister's office suggesting that Netanyahu told the IDF to inform families

of hostages that there were no signs of harm to hostages during this incident, which Sinwar may have been killed in.

That statement, as I understand it, Jeremy -- but I just want to confirm it with you -- that statement did not say whether or not they're -- there were

thought to be hostages in the area, correct?

DIAMOND: Well, the previous statement from the Israeli military did make clear that there were no -- there was no presence of hostages identified in

the area where this -- these militants were killed.

But I think the reason that that statement is being put out is because, if you are the family of a hostage being held in Gaza and you see the news

that Yahya Sinwar may have been killed, your first thought is going to be, oh, my God.

What if my loved one is with him?

And that's because the working assumption over the course of the last year has been that Sinwar was likely surrounding himself with multiple hostages,

perhaps a dozen or so hostages, using them effectively as human shields to try and protect himself from Israeli military operations.

And so therefore, this is sending a clear and immediate signal to those families that there were no hostages around him at the time when he may

have been killed, if indeed his -- this body is confirmed to be that of the Hamas leader.

ANDERSON: Good to have you. Stay with me. Let me bring in Kylie Atwood from the State Department.

What would the death of Sinwar, the picture of victory as it were, if Benjamin Netanyahu chooses to take it like that, what would it mean for the

Biden administration?

They must have gamed this out. I mean, as I understand it, the president and Antony Blinken, for example, are on a flight to Germany at present,

correct?

KYLIE ATWOOD, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Yes.

Yes. That's right. The president, the secretary of state, his national security advisor all on a flight, right now, from the U.S. to Germany. We

haven't heard anything official from the Biden administration in response to the fact that the IDF is investigating, if indeed this is the death of

Yahya Sinwar.

But as you point out, if this is something that Netanyahu uses to claim victory against Hamas in Gaza, that would presumably be what U.S. officials

would hope to see. They have long said that Sinwar is the one who is standing in the way of a ceasefire and hostage negotiations, a deal in that

sense.

With the secretary of state saying that Sinwar has the fate of the deal in his hands just recently. And so the U.S. would presumably be tested when it

comes to those comments in a very real way, if Sinwar is in fact dead here, because this would presumably pave the way for that.

But as you guys have been discussing here, we don't know if that will be the case. We don't know who would take over leadership for Sinwar. We don't

know if those folks would actually drive things forth to a hostage release and a ceasefire deal.

This is something that obviously U.S. officials are presumably speaking about right now. And I just do want to point out that the fact that that

IDF statement said that this operation was carried out in a building, not a building underground, not the tunnels underground, is really interesting.

We don't know exactly the specifics of Yahya Sinwar's movements. Of course, it does tell us that he is such a hard target for the Israelis and for the

U.S. side, because they have said that he has been hiding in the tunnels under Gaza. But they don't know exactly where he was.

So the fact that he was just killed in this routine operation, as Jeremy is reporting, is hugely significant. It is a dose of luck, frankly, even

though there have been operations ongoing for more than a year to try and find this leader, to try and take out this mastermind of October 7.

So this will be a really interesting space to discuss with U.S. officials. And there'll be questions, as you guys were discussing, about the future of

this conflict, if this confirmation does actually come in.

ANDERSON: Let me bring in Nada -- thank you.

We've been reporting that Yahya Sinwar is -- was -- let's still say is -- it hasn't been confirmed that he has been killed as of yet -- a highly

popular leader over the years since he was returned or returned to Gaza after spending 22 years in Israeli prison.

[10:20:00]

Maybe that is true for many. But the last year has had an enormous toll on the people of Gaza, the Palestinians of Gaza. It has left 42,000 dead and

100,000 or more injured. And these numbers could just be conservative. These are people who have been killed or maimed in this war.

And there have been voices, it seems increasingly, of discontent about the way that Hamas has run this war against Israel. Obviously, it has been

Israel targeting Hamas, it says, and civilians have been killed.

What is the sense from inside Gaza about whether or not there was still as much support for Sinwar today, a year and 10 days after the conflict broke

out?

BASHIR: Becky, we've been hearing from civilians on the ground in Gaza throughout the last year.

Of course, as you mentioned, he has in the past been a deeply popular figure. He has for some in Gaza and even outside of Gaza. Yahya Sinwar has

represented an image of resistance against Israeli occupation.

But for many in Gaza now, there is a significant amount of discontent toward Hamas, toward Hamas' political so-called leaders, including Yahya

Sinwar, who some, we've heard firsthand, who some have accused of dragging Gaza into this war, that they have had no part in that.

Civilians are paying now the highest price for a war essentially brought on by Hamas' decision to carry out those attacks and massacres in Israel on

October 7. And of course, as you mentioned, Becky, it is Israel that is targeting Gaza.

It is Israel carrying out these airstrikes. And of course, it is not just airstrikes and military operations that are now leading to civilians being

killed but also a blockade which has led to now spreading famine across Gaza.

So there is a lot of layers to this. But yes, on the political front, there is a sense of discontent now toward Hamas as to how this war has been

prosecuted, what the essential end goal is.

And, of course, at each point when we've seen some levels of progress with ceasefire negotiations, what we've seen on the ground in Gaza is real

celebration. People are desperate for this war to come to an end. More than 42,000 people have been killed. We're watching children dying of

malnutrition.

So the desperation for there to be a ceasefire is immense. And what we've been hearing from officials in the U.S. is that they believe Yahya Sinwar,

who, of course, is more of a hardline figure than Ismail Haniyeh, who was assassinated in July, the political bureau chief of Hamas. He was perhaps

more engaged in those negotiations.

But of course, following his assassination, it is Yahya Sinwar who has been making those final calls on the final details of these ceasefire

negotiations. He is seen as more of a hardline figure. So there is discontent around that as well with regards to the stalling ceasefire

negotiations that we have seen.

Of course, important to underscore as well that Hamas and others in the region have accused Israel of putting forward new conditions which are seen

as non-starters. Again, putting a pause on those, on the progress of ceasefire talks.

But for many in Gaza, the shared feeling is just a sense of desperation for this war to come to an end. And what we're hearing more broadly from the

international community is that this needs to come from a political negotiated solution, not through military means.

As the Israeli military has continued to push one, the Israeli government, of course.

ANDERSON: Yes, and that viewers echoed around the region where I am and in capitals across the world. Nada, thank you.

The death of Yahya Sinwar would be a very significant moment if indeed he has been killed. The consequences on many fronts are still unclear. We will

be right back with more on this after this short break.

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ANDERSON: Breaking news that we are following for you this hour, Israel's military announcing it is investigating the possibility that the Hamas

leader, Yahya Sinwar, was killed during its operations in Gaza. I've got Nic Robertson, who is our international diplomatic editor, standing by.

Nic, your initial response to this news that we are breaking at this point. We are of course, waiting for further detail from the IDF. It is not clear

how long it will take for them to confirm who it is that they have killed today.

But certainly, as we understand it from our colleagues, they will -- they are working through sort of DNA at this point. We don't know how long that

will take. But just your initial response here.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: So a couple of things I think Becky, one is was his brother, Mohammed, with him and if he -- if Yahya

Sinwar was killed, was his brother also killed?

And the reason I asked that question is because his brother had, following the killing in July in an Israeli airstrike of Mohammed Deif, the military

commander of Hamas, if you will, who put together the part of the October 7 plan as well with Yahya Sinwar.

When he died, he was replaced by Yahya Sinwar's brother. Now the IDF or a senior Israeli official recently told me oftentimes Mohammed Sinwar, Yahya

Sinwar were often traveling gather and really represent the sort of ultimate in the leadership of Hamas inside Gaza.

If both are dead, that's something different than just Yahya Sinwar being dead. If his brother Mohammed is alive, then you can understand that the

organization will probably try to continue in exactly the same way that Yahya Sinwar was leading it.

If, if they are both dead, then it opens the possibility for another leadership to emerge and potentially take a different line with the Israeli

government in terms of negotiations for the release of the hostages, a ceasefire, all those sorts of things.

I think it's way too early to draw any realistic conclusions about what can be possible, what might be possible. That was one of the first things that

occurred to me.

And I think the other thing that enters the arena now is the possibility for prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to sort of declare a sort of a break

point, if you will, in his war with Hamas. This gives him the opportunity to say, we've now killed the leadership.

I think the military have long been clear in Israel, the IDF, that Hamas is depleted, in effect, in terms of a cohesive force as it was a year ago.

It's ineffective in that way. Now the political leadership is what has remained, if you will, the thorn in the side of prime minister Benjamin

Netanyahu.

If that leadership has gone, does that open other possibilities?

And even that isn't really clear at the moment because we see the way that the IDF and the political decisions have been taken about the humanitarian

situation in the north of Gaza.

And that leads you to a conclusion that perhaps politically prime minister Netanyahu, even with Sinwar's death, isn't, isn't prepared to call this a

moment where he can say that Hamas is defeated.

Again, the dust really needs to settle and we need to get a clearer picture of what's been left behind, Becky.

ANDERSON: It's not clear how long the IDF believe the identification of the body they believe is Sinwar's will take. His death, though would be a

very significant moment if indeed he is killed.

The question is, what are the consequences of that?

And that is what we are discussing at this point. We have to talk about the potential for Netanyahu seeing this as a big win, a big victory.

[10:30:00]

The picture of victory, if that is what he chooses.

And what happens then?

We've heard from the Qatar PM in the last 24 hours. The Qataris have been deeply involved in mediation. There haven't been any talks between the

parties for 3-4 weeks. More than 100 hostages still held.

If Netanyahu were to take this as a military victory, the politics and diplomacy for the Palestinians who haven't lost their lives, that could be

a very good moment.

ROBERTSON: Absolutely. This is a moment that diplomats will have been looking for so they can break into the close cycle of thinking in both the

Israeli government and around Sinwar.

This is an opportunity to begin a different narrative. But this is where we have to let the dust settle and see what version of Hamas is left. I do

think it's key about Yahya Sinwar's brother, whether he's alive.

And will he pick up the reins and try to carry on?

Will he become the next target for Netanyahu?

What's been widely seen by diplomats and everyone else is once Israel started the war against Hezbollah, they parked Gaza on one side. They kept

up military operations in the north, reinforced, cut off aid, continuing to bomb what they said were Hamas targets, command and control centers of

Hamas, continuing to go after the leadership there.

But for all intents and purposes, Israel's principal focus was on Hezbollah in the north. And part of that was an object lesson to Yahya Sinwar in

Hamas that you can just stew and wait. We're going to deal with you.

We're not going to deal with the hostage issue. You can wait and look at what we can do to your ally and partner in Lebanon.

This is, you know, that Hezbollah has been all the time engaged in the fight with Israel, they say, on the grounds of supporting Hamas, the

Palestinians, the people of Gaza, the West Bank, all of that.

And this, in essence, the war against Hezbollah for the Israeli government has been a lesson to Hamas that they can fight in the north and they can

park the Hamas issue on one side and just deal with it militarily, not deal with it politically, not deal with it diplomatically.

So yes, this is a huge opportunity to break that cycle and so a lot of focus, yes, absolutely, will be on prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Does he declare this a moment of victory or not?

ANDERSON: Right. And we've been talking about where the Biden administration might stand on this. They must have gamed this out. We've

been talking to the State Department, our colleagues there, who are reminding us that President Biden is en route in flight to Germany to the

meeting there in Brussels of NATO leaders.

He will meet his defense minister there. He's traveling with his national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, and, of course, his secretary of state,

Antony Blinken. And we have heard nothing official on this news from the U.S. State Department as of yet.

Of course, we will get that to our viewers as and when we get something. All right, we're going to take a very short break. Back after this.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE (voice-over): This is CNN breaking news.

ANDERSON: Welcome back to CONNECT THE WORLD with me, Becky Anderson, and a reminder of our breaking news today from Gaza.

The Israeli military says a man believed to be Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has been killed during what they describe as a routine operation. Sources

say Israeli infantry troops encountered three militants near a building in Gaza.

And after battling them, Israeli troops found a body resembling Sinwar's and alerted their senior commanders. We now understand that the Israeli

military and intelligence services are working to identify whether that body is Sinwar's using DNA analysis.

Well, the death would be a hugely significant development with Sinwar considered to be the architect of the October 7 attacks. As many of you may

know, unconfirmed pictures purporting to show the dead body of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar are now circulating widely on social media.

In them, a man strongly resembling Sinwar can be seen lying dead in the rubble of a destroyed building with serious injuries to the skull. The

source of the photos is unknown. CNN's photo desk has run the images through authenticator software, which shows no signs of image manipulation.

It is not possible to discern a location or timeframe of the man's death from these still photographs. And CNN has not yet been able to confirm the

identity of the man seen in those photographs.

You are bang up to date. Let's bring in our panel for you. Still with us, CNN's Nic Robertson and Nada Bashir. Also joining us Firas Maksad and

Khaled Elgindy, both with the Middle East Institute out of Washington, as I understand it today.

Thank you, everybody, for joining us. And just to get us absolutely squared off, it is not clear how long the IDF believes identification of the body

they believe is Sinwar will take.

But we are being told, Nada -- and let's just get your reporting in here -- we are being told it is likely minutes, if not hours, rather than days or

weeks, correct?

BASHIR: Yes, absolutely, Becky. We are still waiting for more updates from Israeli military officials on that. But we understand it could be a matter

of hours before we get that confirmation from the Israeli military.

This is of course, a significant development. It would be a huge blow to Hamas.

And there are real questions as we have been discussing as to whether the killing of Yahya Sinwar, Hamas' leader, if in fact this is confirmed, could

provide the opportunity for Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu to paint the picture in Israel's eyes of a victory.

We know, of course, that the Israeli government has been persistent and reiterating that they are intent on seeing this war through until they

believe they have achieved the full eradication of Hamas.

We've also heard from Israeli officials as well as officials in the U.S. acknowledging that the idea behind Hamas is not some things that can be

entirely destroyed.

But they do believe, according to U.S. assessments, that Hamas' military capabilities have now been downgraded to a point where they are no longer

in a position to carry out an attack and massacre such as the scale that we saw on October 7 in Israel.

[10:40:00]

But of course, what we've also seen is the Israeli military continually targeting senior leaders. This would be a significant development if indeed

this is confirmed to be Yahya Sinwar.

ANDERSON: Right.

Firas, let me bring you in here. You are very well sourced across the region where I am, the Arab Gulf, around this region of Lebanon as well.

And indeed in Washington. Your assessment of what is developing here, if you will, and any information that you can provide at this point.

FIRAS MAKSAD, DIRECTOR OF OUTREACH, MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE: Good to be with you, Becky. I agree that this is a potential fork in the road that might

open up the pathways for a diplomatic outcome here in Gaza.

But that is by no means a foregone conclusion. Obviously, there's a sense that Israel right now has escalation dominance in many ways. Benjamin

Netanyahu sees an opportunity to reset the table, not just in Gaza but in Lebanon and throughout the Middle East as it relates to Iran.

But I can tell you, I mean, talking to these senior officials here in the region, I've heard it from a senior White House official that as long as

Sinwar is alive, the administration did not think that a ceasefire in Gaza is going to be possible.

So this opens up the opportunity. However, we also have to ask the question whether the administration has the political will to bring enough

diplomatic wherewithal, enough pressure on Netanyahu, to call it a day, call it a victory in Gaza, which then opens up possibilities beyond Gaza.

Because as we know now, Hezbollah's former leaders, secretary general Hassan Nasrallah, was looking for a fig leaf from Benjamin Netanyahu in

this ceasefire that the administration was hoping to engineer.

When Bibi Netanyahu took to the U.N. stage in that speech, of course, Bibi did not take that opportunity and instead decided to assassinate Nasrallah.

So I think we're in a similar moment here where potentially there's a fork in the road.

And what the administration does next is going to be pivotal.

ANDERSON: Let me just bring you in Khaled, here, because I know you've been an adviser to the Palestinian leadership in Ramallah over the years at

very strategic periods of time.

As the leadership in Ramallah digest the same news that we are at this point -- and again, I have to underscore we are waiting for further

information from the IDF -- how will this be landing in Ramallah?

KHALED ELGINDY, SENIOR FELLOW, MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE: Well, it's an interesting question. I mean, I think the leadership in Ramallah, such as

it is, it's probably the least relevant actor in this entire arrangement. They have no say either in matters of war or peace in Gaza or the broader

region for that matter.

So I think -- I think they will be hopeful that this does in fact bring an end to the -- to the horrors that we're seeing inside Gaza. But they're not

in a position to move that needle one way or the other.

But on the -- on the --

(CROSSTALK)

ANDERSON: The key architect of the October the 7th -- yes, go on. Go on.

ELGINDY: No, I just wanted to address the issue of Sinwar's demise. If in fact it is confirmed -- and I agree completely with Firas that this could

be a fork in the road and it depends entirely on Washington, on the Biden administration willing to use this as an opportunity to bring an end to

this horrific war once and for all.

But that will take political will. And so far, we've seen this administration, they've consistently misjudged the Netanyahu government and

the lengths that it is willing to go, the extent of its extremist nature.

And I think a reasonable Israeli government would decide that here's an opportunity to claim victory but that assumes that they're looking for an

off-ramp. And I think that's -- that assumption is unwarranted. I think what we're seeing on the ground in northern Gaza, we're seeing willingness

to use starvation as a weapon.

We're seeing massive killing of civilians. There is an attempt to clear the north of its population. And I expect that to proceed unless the U.S. takes

a very firm and public stance against it.

ANDERSON: They must have gamed this out. We've been, we've been talking about that. There must have been conversations amongst those at a senior

level in the Biden administration.

[10:45:04]

And indeed between the Biden administration and the Netanyahu administration about what would happen were Sinwar to be killed. A fork in

the road perhaps then for Gaza, if this plays out the right way.

Firas, I do just want to bring you in. And I've got to get Nic to just respond to this as well.

Gaza, of course, is not the only theater of war at this point. As we await to find out what the Israelis are likely to do next with regard retaliation

against Iran, we are witness to a war in Lebanon at this point.

How does Sinwar's death, if that is indeed what we are reporting at this point, affect what is going on in Lebanon?

Firas first.

MAKSAD: Yes, Becky, I mean, I do think that the Lebanon and Gaza theaters are more interrelated than the Iranian theater is.

And I'll explain why. Hezbollah, having been dealt these severe blows, including the assassination, essentially the decapitation of its military

leadership and Hassan Nasrallah, its secretary general, is itching for a ceasefire. We've heard that time and again, including from its deputy

secretary general only days ago.

They need a fig leaf, they cannot, they and the Iranians who support them, cannot decouple from Gaza. They need some kind of an arrangement, some kind

of an end to major military operations in Gaza in order to save face and agree to wind down in Lebanon, come out with a new diplomatic outcome.

A new security arrangement for south Lebanon and that border with Israel. So in that sense, this might provide the opening for an eventual

deescalation in Lebanon.

On Iran however, I do think that that counter-strike, that Iran, that Israeli response to Iran is forthcoming and is going to be unrelated to

this. And there are some thinking here in D.C. that this might be a multistage operation where the initial Israeli response is limited, does

not go after oil installation.

Some of the nuclear infrastructure is contingent to military sites and the IRGC. But then when the Iranians themselves respond, there will be a much

bigger Iran -- Israeli operation.

And that perhaps would, in terms of timeframe and timeline, put that much larger Israeli attack beyond the November 5 Election Day here, which is

crucial in terms of the administration and what it's looking for and what it's pressuring Bibi Netanyahu to do.

So I don't think it will have much of an impact as it relates to Iran but potentially impact when it comes to Lebanon.

ANDERSON: Yes, no, fascinating. Look, I've got to take a break.

Thank you, everybody.

Nic, do stand by. I mean to get your assessment as well. I haven't had a chance to bring you in on this part of the conversation, so I'll get you on

the other side of this break.

To everybody else, thank you very much indeed, for joining us. More on our breaking news just ahead.

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[10:50:00]

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ANDERSON: Breaking news that we Are following for you, Israel's military announcing that it is investigating the possibility that the Hamas leader,

Yahya Sinwar, was killed during an IDF operation in Gaza.

Charles Lister is a senior fellow at the Institute -- the Middle East Institute, joins us now from D.C. CNN's Nic Robertson is still with us.

Again, let's just be quite clear.

It is not clear how long the IDF believe it will take to identify the body they believe is Yahya Sinwar. But all indications, it seems, to be from

sources that we are talking to, that indeed, it is likely to be the Hamas leader.

Charles, let me bring you in at this point. Your assessment of what we are reporting here, its significant consequences if you will.

CHARLES LISTER, SENIOR FELLOW, MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE: I mean, it's unquestionably a significant development. Sinwar has been the number one

hunted man in Gaza ever since October the 7th happened.

And so from Israel's perspective, this is a huge development, a huge achievement, even though reports seem to indicate this almost happened by

accident. This wasn't an intelligence led operation targeting a tunnel, as many would probably have expected over the past many months.

But this was an unprovoked, sudden development on the ground. So it's unquestionably significant for Israel but also internationally. And I

think, certainly sitting in Washington from a U.S. perspective, this is the big box that the U.S. government has needed to be ticked before the

U.S. government ever pushes for a genuine end to the conflict in Gaza.

And I think that is very significant from a U.S. perspective.

Does that mean that the war is going to end in Gaza?

No, not necessarily by any means. But it is very significant in terms of changing the calculations around the situation there.

ANDERSON: A fork in the road as described by a number of your colleagues, actually, who we've been speaking to over the past couple of hours.

Nic, if indeed this is a fork in the road, where do we expect that road to go?

That is -- that's the big question at this point, isn't it?

ROBERTSON: It is. I'm not entirely convinced that that the fork is going to be taken, to be perfectly honest at the moment. Look, just listening to

everyone else, it's a reminder that the Israeli government still has a very, very active campaign, a military campaign going on in Lebanon.

They're still trying to create effects on the ground in Gaza, despite the fact they now have or may have the death of Sinwar, which is an important

political moment for them.

But you know, it's all, it's all in the gift of prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu here, absent pressure from the United States, which, of course,

your previous guests were saying it rests on that.

So is prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu, at the moment, minded that he needs to take a foot off the gas?

And there's a real strong sense of opinion, particularly among many in his cabinet, that this is not the time to take the foot off the gas. They've

been remarkably successful, perhaps better than they might have imagined, with Hezbollah in the north. They're trying to exploit that along the

border.

That's potentially where their campaign and timeline unravels a little bit.

[10:55:00]

But so far they've been relatively successful against Hezbollah. They now seem to be racking up potentially another success against Hamas.

The hardliners in Netanyahu's cabinet would argue, why take the foot off the gas now?

Why not continue to push for what we really want here?

And what we really want to do is get Iran. And the notion and that there could be --

(CROSSTALK)

ANDERSON: OK.

ROBERTSON: -- weighted response to Iran that one of your guests just mentioned, you know, you cannot ignore those sorts of assessments at the

moment. So I don't think we can say from Netanyahu's point of view that this is going to be a fork in the road.

It could just be a moment where he said, where he takes this as a victory and then continues to press down.

I think as far as Hamas is concerned, look, this is an organization built on resilience. It's an organization whose ethos is resistance. It's an

organization that believes in martyrship. It means that it believes in dying for the cause.

Sinwar was absolutely part and beholden to that. He will see -- would have expected his death, not to put a bump in the road but -- for Hamas but

merely just be another notch in its way forward.

So I think they will have prepared for this moment. They will have had ideas, which again is why I come back to the point about his brother and

other senior leadership figures, who may still exist that we're not aware of, names that hadn't been talked about who may emerge.

So I think all of this is --

ANDERSON: Yes.

ROBERTSON: -- the things that mitigate against a fork in the road. This has been going on for a long time. So many people would wish that it is the

change that everyone's been waiting for.

ANDERSON: Good to have you both.

I've got to take a very short break. That is it for this hour. Stay with CNN. More breaking news coverage is straight ahead.

END