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CNN International: Harris Delivers Optimistic Message in Closing Rallies; Top Election Official: Georgia Targeted by Disinformation; Anger Grows Over Government Response to Disaster; Democrats Encouraged by Strong Early Turnout Among Women; Harris, Trump Offer Starkly Different Approaches to Economy; Legendary Music Producer Quincy Jones Passes Away at 91. Aired 9-10a ET
Aired November 04, 2024 - 09:00:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:00]
ERICA HILL, CNN HOST, CONNECT THE WORLD: The countdown is officially on. A live picture there, of course, of the White House in Washington, D.C. Keep
in mind at this time tomorrow, voting will be well underway in the United States on the East Coast. Of course, a number of measures on the ballot,
but that presidential election getting a lot of the attention in 2024. Thanks for being with us on this Monday. It's 09:00 a.m. here in New York.
I'm Erica Hill. This is CONNECT THE WORLD.
Kamala Harris and Donald Trump now making their final pitches to voters as a former president really leans into election denialism as part of his.
Plus, an insight into the issues younger voters are prioritizing in 2024 we'll take a look at what is bringing them to the polls. And an
entertainment industry legend, Quincy Jones, has died. He, of course, produced moments for some of the biggest artists in the world, from Michael
Jackson to Frank Sinatra. We're going to take a look back at his life and his legacy.
Well, with one day to go here, happy election eve to all those who celebrate. This has been a tense, exhausting campaign, and at this point,
the polls show this election remains in a dead heat. The candidates really using these final hours to make their final pitches to voters, offering
sharply different messages and in starkly different tones. Vice President Kamala Harris telling supporters in Michigan she is ready to lead through
cooperation and consensus.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE U.S., (D) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We have momentum. It is on our side. Can you feel it? America is ready for a
fresh start, ready for a new way forward, where we see our fellow American not as an enemy, but as a neighbor. We are ready for a president who knows
that the true measure of a leader is not based on who you beat down. It is based on who you lift up.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HILL: Former President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania on Sunday, continuing to sow doubts about election integrity while repeating familiar false
claims he made about the 2020, election.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT AND 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: They are fighting so hard to steal this damn thing. Look at what's going
on. Look at what's going on in your state. Every day they're talking about extending hours and stuff. What? Whoever heard of this stuff? We should
have one day voting and paper ballots.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HILL: Donald Trump also complaining over the weekend about a new poll which shows that he is no longer leading in the State of Iowa. He says his own
polling has him up by double digits. Both candidates today will be making stops in Pennsylvania. Donald Trump will also make his way to North
Carolina and Michigan.
Eva McKend is following the Harris campaign; she is in Pennsylvania for us. So, Eva, the Vice President, crisscrossing the keystone state today. We
know here's a lot of attention on this state. Is this sort of all in on this final day, because they believe that it is Pennsylvania which is the
key to those 270 electoral votes for Kamala Harris.
EVA MCKEND, CNN U.S. NATIONAL POLITICS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Erica, I can tell you that they have always put a high priority on this state. You'll
remember several weeks ago when they had that debate prep camp here where she was essentially camped out here for a week. So, they have always seen
Pennsylvania as crucial to the path to victory here.
And I can tell you what's interesting about her closing message, she didn't even mention the former president by name last night. She's really trying
to, at this stage, consolidate coalitions, now that Trump has been well litigated, and focusing instead on unity.
So, she begins today with some good old-fashioned door knocking over in Scranton, Pennsylvania, that, of course, is the hometown of President Joe
Biden. Then she heads here to where I am in Allentown, Pennsylvania. We are on the campus of Muhlenberg College.
The campaign noting that Allentown has a very heavy Latino population, more than 30,000 Puerto Ricans. And she's going over to Reading where she will
campaign with Governor Josh Shapiro and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio- Cortez. She does a big rally over in Pittsburgh, and then another big, star-studded affair over in Philadelphia, where she will be joined by the
roots Jasmine, Sullivan, Oprah Winfrey.
And core to this message is telling her supporters, listen, don't sit on the sidelines. We want to wake up the day after the election feeling as
though that they put it all on the line and did everything that they could, Erica.
HILL: We will be watching for that as you mentioned those big names coming out to help her as well. Also, really quickly, there have been some
questions about when the vice president was going to vote? She did that by mail, correct?
MCKEND: She did. She sent in her ballot, so that is enroute to California, we believe, as we speak.
HILL: All right. Eva, appreciate it.
[09:05:00]
Also, I want to bring in now my colleague Harry Enten and we're taking a look at the final polls here. A race that, as you know, was so close, few
pollsters are willing to predict who is going to win. I'm not going to make Harry make a prediction.
HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR DATA REPORTER: Thank God.
HILL: Because I love you too much, my friend.
ENTEN: Thank you.
HILL: I want to put you on the spot like that. But you do have certain polls that you're monitoring very closely here on this election eve. Walk
us through those.
ENTEN: Yeah. I mean, look, it's a historically tight race where nobody knows, nobody knows. You know, we're talking about those seven key
battleground states, four in the Sun Belt, three in the Great Lakes. Look, the widest lead in any of these states is Trump plus three in Arizona, but
you got them plus one in Georgia, less than a point in North Carolina, less than a point Nevada.
You jump over the Great Lakes; you get blue on your screen. But again, when I'm putting in this less than symbol, you know it's tight, less than a
point lead in Pennsylvania, less than a point lead in Wisconsin, less than a point lead in Michigan for Kamala Harris. Let's put that onto the
electoral map, and what do we get?
Well, you can't get any closer than this. Kamala Harris at 270 electoral votes, when the race is to 270 and you're exactly there, that's how tight
it is. It's because, of course, she carries these Great Lake battleground states, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
But you know, Erica, I'm a big fan of history. I like going back, so I decided to look back at the final polls of each election over the last 52
years, and project those final polls on the electoral map. If the polls were perfect right now, in 2024 the leader gets 270 electoral votes. That
is the tightest, the tightest the polls have ever been going into a presidential election the last 50 years.
The next closest was back in 2000 when Al Gore was projected to get 281 electoral votes. Of course, he did not ultimately reach the White House
because he lost Florida, which the final polls had him winning, but by just a smidgen, Erica.
HILL: All right, so we look at all that. The other thing to keep in mind as we look at all of this is, while the polls are very close there's no
guarantee that the results may end up being that close.
ENTEN: Exactly right. No guarantee why? What is going on here? You know, if you look at an aggregation of forecast models, you put them together, will
the 2024 winner get 300 plus electoral votes, which, in my mind, is a relative blowout. There's a majority chance, 60 percent yes, compared to
the minority shot 40 percent no.
What the heck is going on here? Because I just showed you all these close polls. Here's what's going on here. If you look back through history, polls
are not perfect. The average error in a swing state aggregate is 3.4 points since 19,172 that is larger than all of the seven closest battleground
states which are all within three points.
So, what does that mean? What does that mean for the electoral map? Well, if the average error benefits Kamala Harris, what happens? She gets all the
way up to 319 electoral votes, because she carries those Great Lake battleground states. She carries North Carolina and Georgia and the
Southeast and Nevada and Arizona and the Southwest.
Of course, the error could go the other way, and if it goes the other way, and benefits Donald Trump, he gets all the way up to 312 electoral votes
because he carries those southeast battleground states. He carries those in the southwest. And more importantly, he blocks Kamala Harris' path to 270
electoral votes by winning Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.
The bottom line is this, Erica Hill, we've been together once. We've been together twice. We've been together thrice. Even more than that, I still
have no idea what's going to happen. It's the one time I've had into a presidential election where I don't even have a gut. All my friends are
asking me who's going to win, to which I say, if I knew the answer to that, I'd be in Vegas right now making a lot of money.
HILL: 100 percent at the very least, buying a lot of ticket. I mean, I said I wasn't going to put you on the spot, but I lied, Harry. I do want to ask
you quickly because I'm told, we have a little bit more time with you. This Iowa Poll that came out over the weekend. Donald Trump very upset about it.
He says this is not accurate.
He has praised that polling in the past. I don't know that you have it in front of you, but I'm just curious when we look at that and what could or
could not happen the fact that that poll has essentially flipped from the last time it was done in September now showing Kamala Harris 47 to 44
percent within the margin of error over Donald Trump.
What was interesting to me is it was really independents and women that were a big part of that poll. Do you think they've been taken into account
enough those groups, and especially voters over 65 in all of this polling that we've been looking at?
ENTEN: Not necessarily, not necessarily. That is part of the reason why, when you look back through history, you have this average error 3.4 points.
Polls are imperfect. Polls are imperfect. Now I don't know whether or not Iowa is going to be close or not, whether or not it's going to flip. My
guess is Trump holds on to it. You look at the average of polls, that's what you see.
But what is so important to keep in mind is, you know what Iowa is right next to? It's right next to Wisconsin. So, if all of a sudden, the
Wisconsin polls are under resting -- underestimating Kamala Harris, which that Iowa and Selzer Poll suggests you put Wisconsin in the Kamala Harris'
column that makes her road to 270 electoral votes that much easier.
[09:10:00]
That is why that poll was interesting to me, not necessarily for what it meant in Iowa. It's for what it meant in the other Great Lake battleground
states and those other Midwest battleground states. If all of a sudden you have a polling error that underestimates Kamala Harris, it makes a map like
this seem very, very plausible, where Kamala Harris easily beats Donald Trump.
And keep in mind, in 2022 the polls underestimated Democrats in those key battleground states. If they do it again this year, Kamala Harris and the
Democrats are going to have a very, very good night, Erica.
HILL: Harry Enten, always a pleasure, my friend. Thank you.
ENTEN: The pleasure was all mine.
HILL: Let's get you caught on what's happening with team Trump. Alayna Treene covering the Trump campaign. She is in North Carolina this hour. So,
Alayna, good to have you back with us. Donald Trump. We talked about how the vice president is really all in on Pennsylvania today. Donald Trump is
in Pennsylvania, but he is also hitting in addition to North Carolina, a third state. Walk us through this final day of campaigning, what they're
hoping it will do in terms of voter turnout?
ALAYNA TREENE, CNN REPORTER: Well Erica, this is actually Donald Trump's fourth visit, I believe, to North Carolina in just the last three days. He
has been hitting the state aggressively in this final stretch, which I think should tell you all you need to know.
That there are concerns about his performance in North Carolina, and that in itself, is notable just given both in 2016 and 2020 Donald Trump won
North Carolina sure last cycle, it was by a narrow margin. But keep in mind that we haven't seen a Democrat win North Carolina since 2008 when Barack
Obama was successful here.
So, very notable that he's been hitting this so much. But yes, today he is starting here in North Carolina. We're about to see him take the stage at
least he's scheduled to take the stage in roughly under an hour. Then he'll have two stops in Pennsylvania and finish his day in Michigan.
But I think the key thing to keep in mind is what will his closing message look like? And there is a question about that. I can tell you from my
conversations with Trump's advisers, with those close to the former president, what they want the closing message to be is three key things.
One, they want him to really focus on encouraging his supporters to get out and vote, to turn out tomorrow. Do not sit this out. Do not be complacent.
That is the message they are trying to drill into the minds of his supporters, because, again, this is expected to be an incredibly close
election. But also, they want to be talking about the policy areas where they know that he polls better than Kamala Harris, that includes the
economy, that includes immigration.
Now I say all this, and these are things that we've talked about Erica for months now that people have been telling Donald Trump to do this, but we
did not actually see him do that yesterday. Instead, a lot of his remarks were off script. He kind of went off the rails at times where he took --
you know a series of minutes talking about, at one point, criticizing these polls that showed Kamala Harris gaining ground on Donald Trump.
He talked about believing he said, I don't think I should have left to the White House back in 2020. He sowed seeds of doubt on the integrity of this
upcoming election. And he also made a comment about, he was talking about the former assassination attempt on his life and the bullet proof glass
that surrounded him. And said -- you know if someone wanted to get to me, they would have to shoot through the press first, and then he said, I don't
mind.
Now, it's that kind of inflammatory rhetoric that people are very worried about. I can tell you, behind the scenes, when I talk to Donald Trump's
team, they're exhausted, but they were also exasperated. I had one ally who told us that they didn't understand why he couldn't just stay on message
and say -- you know, Kamala broke this country. I will fix it.
That is what they want him to be saying. But sometimes Donald Trump was unable to do that. So, I think today keep a very close eye on whether or
not he is going to be able to stay on message and kind of give that rallying rhetoric that -- use that rallying language that they want him to
be delivering with just one day left to go until voters take to the polls, Erica.
HILL: We'll be watching for it all. Alayna Treene live this hour in Raleigh, thank you. Well, as Alayna just mentioned, election integrity a
big focus, but unfortunately for one of the candidates, that focus is sometimes on sewing misinformation. And in one of these key swing states,
we've been following so closely, which could potentially decide the outcome of the race.
There is an onslaught of disinformation, according to Georgia's top election official, all this coming after a video that emerged on social
media last week pointed to alleged voter fraud in the state. That video went viral. Georgia Secretary of State has called it a fake and is
suggesting it may be the result of Russian meddling. U.S. intelligence officials later confirmed that suspicion, and yet, a lot of the damage may
have been done.
CNN Cyber Security Reporter Sean Lyngaas joining me now from Washington with the very latest. So, this original post of the video was taken down,
but of course, that doesn't mean it's gone. It's still circulating on social media. Just talk to us through -- talk us through not only the video
shows what the FBI and other intelligence officials are now saying about it?
[09:15:00]
SEAN LYNGAAS, CNN CYBERSECURITY REPORTER: Yeah, Erica, it's no coincidence that in the final days of the election, there are these fake viral videos
that are popping up in battle ground states. We had Pennsylvania a week or two ago. In this particular case, we're talking about Georgia, where there
was a fake video.
And we have to say fake every time, because it is utter fiction, purporting to show Haitian immigrants claiming they voted multiple times in Georgia.
And this is utterly false. And in fact, the video was created out of thin air. I don't even think these are real people.
And the Secretary of State of Georgia, Brad Raffensperger, was quick to call it out as likely Russian disinformation. And in fact, perhaps less
than 24 hours later, the intelligence agencies, the FBI, DHS, all said it was Russian -- a Russian group, if you will, that created this video.
Now we actually know a lot about this Russian network of fake accounts. CNN did an investigative story about this just last week where we trace some of
these accounts to the remnants of the notorious Russian troll farm run by Yevgeny Prigozhin that interfered in the 2016 election.
So, these aren't new characters for the intelligence community or for reporters who have followed it. However, the difference now, Erica, is in
2024 they're able to rapidly generate these videos, sometimes using AI, spread them on X, formerly known as Twitter, where they're often circulate
freely for a while, at least.
And it's hard to tell how much impact it's having on voters, but it's very concerning for U.S. officials who are trying to reinforce that, yes, the
elections are free and fair, a devoid of meaningful fraud that would impact any outcome. And these videos are so cheap to make that they keep popping
up like whack a mole, Erica.
HILL: Yeah, I mean, the whack a mole is such an accurate -- comparison. Sean, really appreciate it. Thank you. Just ahead this hour Israel saying
it is now official. It is, in fact, banning a major refugee agency, a look at the possible consequences for millions of Palestinians. Plus, angry
crowds greet the King of Spain during a visit to Valencia. The booze, throwing food. White anger is really boiling over in the wake of last
week's deadly floods.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HILL: An arrest in Israel for one of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's top aides for allegedly leaking classified information. Opposition leaders
say the intelligence was all part of an attempt to undermine talks aimed at a cease fire and hostage deal in Gaza.
Now at the same time, Israel's top ally, the United States, says it is deeply concerned by Israel's move to formally cut ties with UNRWA. That
announcement, of course, coming days after Israel's parliament voted to ban the Palestinian refugee agency. CNN's Paula Hancocks is in the Middle East
region, joining us now live from Abu Dhabi.
[09:20:00]
So, walk us through, first of all, this arrest. So, Israel's international allies say, sorry, we'll do the rest in just a moment that there are so
many concerns now about what will happen when ties are officially cut with the U.N.'s Palestinian relief agency UNRWA. Give us a sense of what are the
estimates? What are we hearing in terms of what this will mean for Palestinians in Gaza?
PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well Erica, every time we hear a humanitarian aid group or one of the countries condemning this, talking
about UNRWA. They use the word irreplaceable, the fact that this is a U.N. agency which has been on the ground for decades, which has the
infrastructure to be able to help Palestinian refugees.
And certainly, Palestinians who are in desperate need of food, water, shelter, humanitarian aid and medicine, the absolute basics at this point.
So, there is grave concern among many countries that this is going to make it extremely difficult for those Palestinians to get the aid that they
need.
Now, what it means is, in about three months' time, it will be enacted, and it means that UNRWA will not be able to operate inside of Israel. It means
no Israeli authority or official will be able to contact the U.N. agency, which effectively makes it almost impossible for this agency to work inside
Gaza or the occupied West Bank.
So, we've even heard from the U.S. State Department saying that they want this. First of all, they wanted it not to go through, but then, when it was
approved in the parliament, they said they wanted the implementation to be delayed, because at this time in Gaza, there is no one else who can take
over the needs of the people and the civilians who are desperately trying to survive there.
Israel has long wanted this to happen. They accuse the agency of being affiliated with Hamas, something which UNRWA denies. They have also said
that they believe a small handful were part of the October 7th attacks against Israel. A U.N. investigation found that nine may have had links to
that attack, and they were fired immediately.
But the U.N. has said that there are 13,000 employees from this group that are desperately trying to help those on the ground. In fact, more than 230
of this agency's workers have been killed during the war in Gaza. So, there is some very significant concern humanitarian aid groups on the ground as
well saying they cannot pick up the slack.
This is an infrastructure that UNRWA has, and it is not something, especially in the middle of a war that can be lost, Erica.
HILL: Yeah, Paula, I really appreciate it. Thank you. I want to get you up to speed on the situation in Spain, which we've been covering. Of course, a
storm and rain warnings in place once again for parts of the East Coast. And of course, this comes just days after those record-breaking deadly
floods tore through the region.
The anger and the frustration really on full display over the weekend as locals were seen throwing mud and food at the country's king and queen as
they made a visit to Valencia. Of course, from the worst hit areas, more than 200 deaths have been attributed to this flooding, and residents say
the government's response has been not only slow but uncoordinated. Atika Shubert has more.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ATIKA SHUBERT, JOURNALIST (voice-over): The waters have receded, but the scene remains apocalyptic. A week after the first torrential rain, some
normality is returning, barely. Across Valencia, first responders and countless volunteers continue the search for the dozens still missing.
Fear to be stuck, beneath the mud in flooded garages or warehouses where access is difficult. The delay in aid has angered many in Valencia. Those
frustrations erupted on Sunday when King Felipe and Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez visited the badly affected suburb of Paiporta.
Asesino, they shouted, murderer. King Felipe and Queen Letizia stayed to face people's anger. Prime Minister Sanchez, did not whisked away by
security. Hearing the stories of the many here who lost literally everything, and the criticism of those who believe the government failed
them.
It can't be like this. This young man tells the king. They knew about the storm and did nothing. Through rain and mud, they listen to the horror and
pleas for food and water and power. We only ask for help, this woman says. We asking for anything else. Help has been arriving, often in the form of
young volunteers, shocked to find they were the first to arrive.
[09:25:00]
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yesterday, we were and one of the -- we don't know why the police, why the military or they don't go and so --
SHUBERT: There were no police, no military there?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No police -- no one was there.
SHUBERT (voice-over): Specialized equipment is finally coming through, days late. Power and water have been mostly restored to affected areas. But for
people in Valencia, it's too little, too slow and too late. Atika Shubert, CNN, Valencia, Spain.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HILL: Let's get you up to speed on some of the other stories on our radar. A female student detained in Iran after stripping down to her underwear in
protest outside of her university. This is video shared by Amnesty International. It shows the woman sat with her hair uncovered before
walking off down the street.
According to the organization, she was protesting Iran's strict Islamic dress code, which, of course, requires women to cover their hair in public.
CNN has not been able to independently verify the details of that incident. Take a look at this record smog enveloping you can barely see the vehicles
there, enveloping Eastern Pakistan's Punjab province over the weekend.
The hazardous air pollution is a health risk in Lahore, Pakistan, that city, of course, of 14 million people. Pakistani officials are now calling
for climate diplomacy with India in an effort to combat the problem. In Indonesia, at least six people are dead after a volcano erupted in the east
the AP reporting it happened just after midnight on Monday, sending thick brown ash spewing thousands of meters into the air.
Officials said the ash hit a nearby village where it burned down several houses, including a convent of Catholic nuns. Here in the U.S., we are just
hours away from the official start to Election Day, but when and how will we know who will be the next resident there of the White House?
We're going to take a look at the vote counting how it will unfold hour by hour to give you a better sense of when we may know. Plus, they are still
new to politics, but they could have a major impact this election cycle. Why young voters are such a focus in 2024?
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HILL: Welcome back, nearly half past the hour here I'm Erica Hill in New York, in for Becky Anderson today. You're watching CONNECT THE WORLD. It is
election eve across the United States, and time is running out for the candidates. Donald Trump and Kamala Harris to sway any undecided voters out
there.
And to even get the decided voters off their couch into the polls. And that is exactly what the candidates are hoping to do. So, what are they doing in
the final hours of campaigning? The vice president really zeroing in on Pennsylvania, barnstorming across the state where she will be hitting
several cities today.
[09:30:00]
The former president, also in Pennsylvania. But he's not stopping there, making his way to two more battle ground states as well today, North
Carolina and Michigan. All of those states in these key battle grounds that we've been watching so closely and in a race that is, frankly, a dead heat,
and has been now for weeks.
We know every vote counts. At this point in the election, more than 75 million Americans have already cast their both ballots in early voting
across the country. Of course, Tomorrow is the big day, the official day, Election Day, and as those polls close state by state, the results will
finally begin to roll in.
But it's not all going to happen at once and brace yourselves. The expectation is we likely won't know tomorrow night who is headed to the
White House next? It's going to take a little bit longer than that. Here to walk us through how it will likely play out tomorrow. CNN's Zachary Wolf,
so everybody wants to know when we'll know.
So, in 2020, it was Saturday. A lot of people I've spoken to in their minds, they say, OK, so hopefully we'll know by the weekend. There's a
chance we could know before that. Walk us through when some of these big states will be coming in, when we'll start to get a sense of the outcome?
ZACHARY WOLF, CNN POLITICS SENIOR WRITER: Yeah, we really don't know when we will know who's going to win this election, because every state counts a
little bit differently. There have been some changes since 2020 and we're not going through a global pandemic right now.
So, there are going to be a lot fewer people casting ballots by mail and the mail-in ballots just literally take longer to process. States like
Georgia, they're opening those ballots early. Most states do this to get them ready, so that relatively early on election night, they hope to have
most of their ballots counted.
Georgia is one of the first battleground states where polls close. North Carolina, they close at 07:30 Eastern. If those two states are relatively
quick, maybe we'll have an idea of what's going on with the day sort of early. But the state that you referenced 2020 when it took four days.
The state that put President Joe Biden over the edge in four years ago, Pennsylvania, they're not opening those mail in ballots early. So, it could
take a very long time again in Pennsylvania, when they start opening the ballots tomorrow on Election Day and then wait to count them.
And of course, in Georgia and North Carolina, those states, even if it's very close, having those ballots open early might not help us find out
until a day or later, when we start counting things like provisional ballots, ballots from overseas further west in Nevada, they will accept
mail-in ballots until November 9, as long as they were postmarked on Election Day.
So, it really comes down to how close this thing will ultimately be. Does it match the polls? And if you have to count every vote in order to
understand who is going to win, it could be a while.
HILL: Yeah, it could be. So, buckle up and get comfortable. Zachary Wolf, appreciate it. Thank you.
WOLF: Thanks.
HILL: Well, as I noted, there are a number of Americans who have already voted, more than 75 million so far voting where they could early in their
states. Our next guest, Charles Myers is Founder of Signum Global Advisors, and says there are some definite trends to be gleaned from these early
voters.
He joins me now. Charles, I have to say I was struck. So, the last day in my town, just outside of New York City, was yesterday. I drove by, it
almost 5 o'clock last night, and there was still a big line out the door, big numbers. But is there anything you can really glean from those numbers?
Because we don't know exactly how their votes were cast.
CHARLES MYERS, CHAIRMAN & FOUNDER OF SIGNUM GLOBAL ADVISORS: Absolutely! And Erica, thanks for having me on. There's a little bit for both sides in
the early voting data. If you're a Republican, you take comfort from the fact that there is significantly higher Republican turnout early. This
cycle, President Trump and all of his surrogates and the party have been encouraging Republican voters to actually vote early this time.
So, you do take some comfort from that, but if you're on the Democratic side, you're taking, I'd say, a lot more comfort from the fact that we're
seeing much higher turnout by women. Women turned out at 54 percent in 2020. They're turning out at exactly the same level in early voting, except
in a few key swing states like Georgia and especially Pennsylvania, at 56 percent very good sign for Harris.
HILL: So, when we look at where things are in this moment, this Iowa poll that came out over the weekend, obviously getting a lot of attention,
because it shows essentially a flip from what they saw in September, when Donald Trump was leading with 47 percent to Kamala Harris is 43.
Now we see Harris with 47 percent, Trump with 44 it's within the margin of error. But what really stands out are the independent voters there. They're
now breaking for Kamala Harris, and also women, and specifically women over the age of 65, those two voting blocs. Do you think they've been
underestimated up to this point?
MYERS: Absolutely! I think that the big story this election, when we have the final result, hopefully later this week, is that is really going to be
two things, much higher turnout by women.
[09:35:00]
But also, within the 54 to 56 percent women that turn out more Republican and independent women voting for Harris than voted for Biden in 2020. And
the reason is very straight forward, as you know, if you take away a fundamental federal right that affects, in this case, 54 to 56 percent of
the voting population, there will be a political backlash.
This is now the number one issue for women voters, meaning women's reproductive freedom. They're turning out, I think, in record numbers. And
including older women as well as you mentioned, the biggest story this cycle will be higher than expected turnout by women because of this issue.
HILL: There's been a lot made of the polling, right? We know there were -- the polls were certainly off in the last two elections, when we look at
them. And there are questions about whether there's maybe some overcorrection. How do you think to this point, the polling has done? How
is it stacking up?
MYERS: Yes. So, I'd say, when you look back at the last two election cycles in both 2020 and 16, polling companies under polled Trump by about 4
percent each time, meaning he outperformed the polling by about four points. There is a very high possibility, and it's been relatively well
covered.
But there's a pretty big probability, or high probability, that polling companies have now over corrected in Trump's favor, so they don't get it
wrong a third time. So, if anything, the surprise this time is probably not the silent Trump voter that turns out. It's actually more silent Harris
voters, which I think again, are going to be independent.
And some Republican women that vote Harris, that are not getting picked up in the polls, but if anything, pulls over corrected for Trump.
HILL: So, what's interesting is, I was actually have a conversation with someone over the weekend, who said they think the polling is still going to
be off, that there still is not enough of -- or pollsters have maybe not figured out the best way to get to a number of Trump supporters, because
they -- some of them may be distrustful of the polling companies. Do you put any stock in that?
MYERS: I think there may be an element of that, you know, on the other side of it, we -- you know, we know that young voters, for example, don't
participate in polls very actively either. It's not a distrust issue, it's just that they don't really, it's not sort of in their DNA to do so. I do
think polling will be off again this cycle.
The biggest challenge with polling is not only sample size, but it captures your sentiment towards a candidate. It doesn't capture turnout, and that's
where polling has failed us consistently. It's going to be off again this cycle. The only question is, is it going to be off more in Harris' favor or
Trump's favor? I'm willing to bet in Harris' favor because of women.
HILL: And we will have our answer in the coming days. Charles, great to have you with us today. Thank you.
MYERS: Thank you.
HILL: In her last Michigan campaign stop, Vice President Kamala Harris spoke to an auditorium packed with young people. Both campaigns really
looking to grab the attention, the confidence, and let's be honest, the votes of those young voters. CNN Chief U.S. National Correspondent John
King, has been out there speaking with a number of them.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
RALPH BRENNAN, CAMPUS COORDINATOR AT MICHIGAN TRUMP TEAM: I'm calling to ask --
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Michigan Republican headquarters five days out.
BRENNAN: If President Trump can count on you and his support in this election.
KING (voice-over): A basement phone bank shift. Ralph Brennan among the Michigan State students helping turn out the vote.
BRENNAN: I think there's a red wave coming, especially Michigan, and I think people will be very surprised on how many people vote Republican this
election.
KING (voice-over): Brennan is 21, a junior economics major from Ohio, but he registered in Michigan for his first vote for president.
BRENNAN: I was a sixth grader when Trump got elected in 16, and I watched him come to the White House. I watched the inauguration. I watched all the
great things he did.
KING (voice-over): Trump struggled with young voters in 2016 and 2020. Brennan predicts better numbers this time, especially among young men. And
especially after Robert F. Kennedy Jr. ended his campaign and backed Trump.
BRENNAN: I've heard a lot of young guys say how much -- how important RFK was to their President Trump vote. You know, ever since Trump kind of
brought RFK onto the team, onto the campaign. A lot of young men, voters really like that kind of resonate with RFK and what he's done.
KING (voice-over): In a dead heat race organization can be the difference.
JADE GRAY, DIGITAL ORGANIZING MANAGER OF PROGRESS MICHIGAN: -- Yeah --
KING (voice-over): Halloween Spirit helps.
GRAY: Just cookies too.
KING (voice-over): Treats as well.
GRAY: Will you fill out one of our pledges to vote things?
KING (voice-over): Jade Gray is a progressive organizer, Former Co- President of the College Democrats here at the University of Michigan, back on campus to encourage early voting.
GRAY: We know that when we vote, we win, and quite frankly, we're getting a lot of people out to vote.
KING (voice-over): Gray's optimism is a big shift. This is our fourth Ann Arbor visit in a year. Back at the beginning, she was down about President
Biden's prospects, and later, she was worried Vice President Harris would still lose too many young voters because of student anger over the Israel-
Hamas conflict.
GRAY: Have you guys voted yet? OK, yay, thanks --
KING (voice-over): But she is upbeat now, and credits a mix of constant organizing and a smarter approach from the Harris campaign.
[09:40:00]
GRAY: It was not just the candidate that switched, but it was really their whole approach to the campaign and leaning into this idea that memes and
internet culture is a, you know, a mode of communicating about politics, has totally transformed this race. And I think will be, you know, one of
the biggest reasons to one of the biggest things we should credit I'm saying when, but if she wins.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HILL: And again, that was CNN's John King reporting in Michigan. Still to come this hour, who voters sent to the White House could, of course, impact
inflation. And we are staring down a new decision on interest rates. We'll take a closer look at the economy and the election, next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HILL: The economy is consistently one of the top issues for American voters. And with the Federal Reserve set to make its next move on interest
rates, Thursday, there are a lot of questions about what this could mean moving forward. Inflation, of course, has been cooling, which is good news.
But there is still hope, another interest rate cut is, in fact, in the works. CNN's Matt Egan joining us from New York, so we're waiting to see
what happens on Thursday. We're waiting to see what happens tomorrow in the election. And there's a lot of talk too about the latest inflation numbers,
where everything stands. What are we expecting later this week, and what could that impact be?
MATT EGAN, CNN REPORTER: Well, Erica, there's just so much uncertainty about the next few days, but one thing that does look certain, or pretty
certain, at least, is another interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Wall Street is pricing in almost a 100 percent chance that the Fed, on
Thursday cuts interest rates by a quarter of a point.
This, of course, would be good news for consumers. Everyone shortly pay off credit card debt or thinking about financing the purchase of a car, would
be helped out by another rate cut. And of course, the Fed just a few weeks ago, back in September, they delivered their first interest rate cut since
COVID, and they went big by cutting interest rates by half a percentage point.
You could see rates are finally starting to come down a little bit, although they remain much higher than a few years ago. Now, you might be
wondering if the weak jobs report that we learned about on Friday could force the Fed to go big again this week, but economists and Fed watchers
don't think so, because a lot of that weakness does appear to have been driven by hurricanes and worker strikes.
Now what's so unusual, though, is that the Fed has to make this decision in the coming days, and they may not know who the next president is going to
be at that point, right? They may not know what economic policies to expect, and that does make things pretty difficult, especially when you
consider the very different approaches that these two campaigns have towards the economy.
And these concerns about how elements of the Trump agenda could be inflationary or very inflationary. Remember, he's talked about massive tax
cuts, unprecedented crackdowns of immigration and deportations. And those really large tariffs, and there are worries that eventually that could be
inflationary.
[09:45:00]
But for now, the Fed, like the rest of us, just has to wait and see how this election turns out, who the next president is going to be? And also,
importantly, which party controls Congress, Erica.
HILL: Yeah, it can only really work with what they know right now. I mean, to your point, though, about some of the promises that we've heard from
Former President Trump, he has really leaned in as part of his message to saying, hey, these high prices that you see, all this inflation, this is
the result of a Biden-Harris agenda, as he calls it.
But you mention what he has floated out there, and especially these tariffs, it's been very clear, and certainly from a number of CEOs that CNN
has just spoken with as well, that higher tariffs do get passed on to the consumer, and this could really impact the pricing of things and how much
money people have on their -- in their wallets?
EGAN: Yeah, absolutely! Erica, look, there's been this big dispute where Former President Trump has said again and again that China is going to pay
tariffs that are imposed by the United States, but that's just not the way tariffs work. Or these are levies that are imposed on imports.
And the importing company has to pay those tariffs, and then they can either eat the cost, or often what happens is they pass the cost along to
consumers. And some companies that make stuff that we all buy. They're already warning about the inflationary impact here. The CEO of Auto Zone
said during a recent earnings call that if we get tariffs, we will pass those tariff costs back to the consumer, and that they won't wait for that
to happen.
There's also over 300 economists who signed a recent letter opposing Trump, and they wrote just as Mexico didn't pay for a wall in his first term,
China will not pay for Trump's tariffs if he's given a second term. You will. One other company out there that is warning about the inflationary
impact of Trump's potential tariffs.
The CEO of Columbia Sportswear told "The Washington Post" that they are already buying stuff today for next fall, and that if needed, they'll just
raise prices. They say it's going to be very, very difficult to keep products affordable for Americans if there are these tariffs out there.
So, Erica, this is one of those other really important elements of the Trump agenda that is making some mainstream economists worried about how
this could actually make the inflation situation worse.
HILL: Matt Egan in New York for us. Matt, appreciate it. Thank you.
EGAN: Thanks, Erica.
HILL: Still ahead here, the music industry loses a giant from playing with the jazz greats to produce Michael Jackson. We remember the man known
simply as cute, Quincy Jones.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HILL: No matter the winner, whether it's Kamala Harris or Donald Trump, we know the outcome of the U.S. election will have major ramifications around
the world. For a closer look, we have our Fred Pleitgen in Berlin as well as CNN Chief Global Affairs Correspondent Matthew Chance with a closer look
at how the outcome could impact the Middle East.
MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN CHIEF GLOBAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Here in Israel, the U.S. presidential election is being closely watched. The outcome being seen
as having a direct impact on this country too, which is of course, fighting in Gaza and Lebanon and engaged in a spiral in confrontation with Iran.
One recent opinion poll here suggests a clear majority of Israelis favor Trump over Harris to become the Leader of Israel's most important ally.
Trump is remembered for a series of pro-Israel moves when he was president, including moving the U.S. embassy to Jerusalem, recognizing Israeli
annexation of the Golan Heights.
[09:50:00]
And taking a tough stance on Iran, while the Biden Administration, including Vice President Harris, is seen by many here as having sought to
restrain Israel's tough military response. In a year since the October the seventh attacks.
FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: There's a lot of uncertainty and anxiety here in Europe about the upcoming U.S. presidential
election, especially among the U.S. is European NATO allies. Now there are some who fear that if Donald Trump wins the presidency, that it could lead
to the United States significantly scaling back its commitments to NATO and possibly even that vow to protect NATO members if they are attacked from
the outside.
All of this, of course, is happening in front of that backdrop of the war in Ukraine, which of course, is still a huge topic here in Europe. And
there, both the Ukrainians and European NATO allies fear that if Donald Trump wins the presidency, that it could also lead to the U.S.
significantly scaling back its military aid for Ukraine and possibly even stopping it altogether, which, in the end, could force the Ukrainians, de
facto, into a surrender against Russia.
A lot of European NATO countries have, of course, given significant military aid to Ukraine, but a lot of them are doing that knowing that the
U.S. will protect them from Russia. Fred Pleitgen, CNN, Berlin.
HILL: The music industry is also one of its trailblazing luminaries. Musician and producer Extraordinaire, Quincy Jones, we've learned, has died
at the age of 91 at his home in Los Angeles. His legacy includes highlights like Michael Jackson's "Thriller" album collaborations with some of the
music industry's biggest, most sought-after stars. Here's Sara Sidner with a look back at his life and his legacy.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
SARA SIDNER, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): As the man behind some of music's most memorable hits, Quincy Jones was one of the most Grammy
nominated artists of all time.
LATE QUNICY JONES, AMERICAN RECORD PRODUCER: When you do win some love, it's not work.
SIDNER (voice-over): Born Quincy Delight Jones, Jr. on the south side of Chicago in 1933, Jones found his passion for music when his family moved to
Seattle in the late 40s. Jones took a job with the Lionel Hampton band as its trumpet player. He worked steadily with musical greats like Sarah
Vaughan, Count Basie, Duke Ellington, Dinah Washington, and his friend Ray Charles.
JONES: We didn't think about money or fame ever.
SIDNER (voice-over): During the 60s, Jones began writing film scores for movies such as "The Pawnbroker", "In cold blood" and "In the Heat of the
Night". We even crafted iconic themes for the TV shows, "Ironside" in Sanford and Son. The in-demand musician, even arranged and conducted his
friend Frank Sinatra's second album with Count Basie.
It might as well be swing. The 1964 album included "Old Blue Eyes" hit song, fly me to the moon.
JONES: Fly me to the moon.
JONES: We've had the best time like being on another planet with him. Frank would say, Q live every day like it should last, and one day you'll be
right.
SIDNER (voice-over): Jones suffered two brain aneurysms in 1974 that nearly took his life. He recovered and went right back to work. He produced albums
for Aretha Franklin, George Benson and Michael Jackson's first solo effort "Off the Wall" in 1979. Jones successful collaboration with MJ also led to
"Thriller" in 1982. It became the best-selling album of all time. The dynamic duo teamed up again in 1985 with "We are the World".
JONES: I like to think about the studios a place that's real sacred, you know, where magical things happen? Hopefully, that's what great records are
supposed to be about.
SIDNER (voice-over): He produced his first film "The Color Purple", in 1985, the drama earned 11 Oscar nominations, including Best Picture. Q, as
his friends called him, seemed to always have a good idea. He created Quincy Jones entertainment in 1990, the following year, he produced "The
Fresh Prince of Bel Air" TV series starring rapper turned Actor Will Smith.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You never think of retiring.
JONES: Never when you retire, you travel and you do what you like to do, and I'm already doing it.
SIDNER (voice-over): In early 2013, the Rock n Roll Hall of Fame honor Q for his exemplary contributions to music.
JONES: Work with every major artist in the world in last 60 years.
[09:55:00]
It's a blessing man, it is. You have to take the light part of your life, you know, wipe out the darkness.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HILL: And again, Quincy Jones was 91. A scary moment for Singer Chris Martin. Take a look at this video. One moment, there he is. He's at a
concert there, of course, with a packed house of Cold Play fans. And the next you see him. Look at that. Falling straight through a trap door on the
stage, a door that was not supposed to be open at that point in cold place concert. This happened in Melbourne, Australia.
Indeed, it was a you too moment. Martin was not injured. We can report, as you see there, quickly jumped back up on stage thanking the folks and
members of the crew who caught him there. Keep in mind, though, this is the same city where Olivia Rodrigo also fell through a trap door on stage, that
happened in Melbourne as well just a few weeks ago.
Glad they're OK. Stay tuned. I'll be back here at the top of the hour for more CONNECT THE WORLD after this break. Stay with CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
END
