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Connect the World
Iran: 224 People Killed in Israeli Strikes, Most of them Civilians; U.S. Sources: Trump Rejected Plan to Kill Iran's Supreme Leader; World Leaders to Discuss Israel-Iran Conflict; Oil Prices Ease Slightly After Soaring Friday; Israel & Iran Launch New Attacks as Conflict Intensifies; Suspect in Minnesota Lawmaker Shooting Caught. Aired 9-10a ET
Aired June 16, 2025 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:00]
ELENI GIOKOS, CNN HOST, CONNECT THE WORLD: This is the view from Tel Aviv after a wave of Iranian strikes earlier amid mounting casualties on both
sides. It's 04:00 p.m. in Tel Aviv, it's 05:00 p.m. here in Abu Dhabi. I'm Eleni Giokos. This is "Connect the World". Let's check in on the stock
market futures right now, the exchange in New York is about to open in around 30 minutes.
You've got the DOW, S&P and NASDAQ all sitting firmly in positive territory, and this is after dropping over 1 percent on Friday, as Israel
and Iran embark on strikes and counter strikes, is unfolding with a big eye on oil prices, which, of course, hit five months highs. Now it's starting
to drop slightly.
Perhaps market participants are betting on the fact that the impact of Israel and Iran conflict is going to be contained. We're going to be
exploring all these themes later on in the show, in terms of market impact of what we're seeing here in the Middle East. Now we start this hour with
the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran.
Both sides reporting new attacks and more casualties. These are pictures from Iran, where government officials say more than 200 people have been
killed, most of them civilians. Since Israel launched its first wave of strikes Friday. In Israel, at least 24 people have been killed by Iranian
missiles and drones that breached the country's iron dome defense shield.
These are pictures from Tel Aviv. A missile hits an oil refinery in Haifa. Several people were killed there. I want to get more now from CNN's Chief
International Security Correspondent Nick Paton Walsh is in London for us, and we're seeing these images, and they just feel very unprecedented, not
only from the Israeli side, but also what we've been seeing coming through in Tehran.
I want you to give me a sense of the impact, the civilian impact right now, not only in Tehran, but also in Israel, Nick.
NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. I mean, look, we are into the fourth day of this conflict, with Israel saying
a total of 370 ballistic missiles have been fired by Iran at it, and the death toll in Iran now of over 200. So startling, I think, to see more
information emerge about exactly the extent of the damage done across Iran.
And indeed, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, today saying they believe they have air superiority. They control the skies over Iran, and
that potentially lays the way open for many more days of Israeli strikes, as they clearly seek to take out the ballistic missile, the air defense and
the nuclear infrastructure and possibly even energy infrastructure inside of Iran.
Comment over the weekend by the defense minister suggesting that potentially the capital Tehran would burn if Iran's missile attacks did not
stop.
[09:05:00]
Well, he still slightly rolled back upon that to suggest he was simply had no harm at all meant towards Iran civilians at all. Images, though, slowly
emerging from across Iran about exactly what has transpired in the past days, and some individual stories too, of the toll taken upon Iran
civilians. Here's what we known.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WALSH (voice-over): Screams echo across the ordinary streets of Tehran. The horrors in Iran are harder to find video of, but it's hard to watch when
you do. A deputy foreign minister posting this damage to his ministry, several civilians injured, he said. Israel's Defense Minister clarified
Monday he meant no harm to Tehran's residents when he said earlier, the city would burn unless Iran's missiles stop.
But many have seen flames already and are fleeing the capital. Nothing like this before in their lifetimes. In the Western City of Kermanshah, state
media posted images of the intensive care unit of a hospital damaged. CNN has reached out to the IDF for comment, and it's unclear if anyone was
hurt, but numbers Iran's Health Ministry have given speak of just how wide scale the Israeli onslaught has been.
Over 200 dead, 90 percent civilians since Friday, they said. But each number its own story, many from the youth that the West sees as the hope
for Iran's post Ayatollah future. This is Tara Hajmiri (ph) dancing at the dentist, killed alongside her family, said state media.
Also, Nilufar Gallevand (ph), big in gyms and social media, aged 31, killed alongside her parents. And Parniya Abbasi, a poet, aged 23, killed with her
parents and brother. Her poem "The Extinguished Star" reads you and I will come to an end somewhere. The most beautiful poem in the world falls quiet.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WALSH (on camera): A slow and I think, horrific toll we're seeing emerging from Iran's civilian population. But I think, as we slowly edge towards the
fifth day of this conflict, it's important to assess exactly how much inventory in terms of military equipment either side has to continue.
There are questions as to -- if it is indeed the case that 370 missiles have been fired by Iran, as to how many more days potentially they have of
stocks like that, without putting Iran at risk of running entirely out of longer-range attack missiles and essentially being prey to whatever Israel
throws at it.
And at the same time too, of course, Israel's interceptors working overtime night after night to stop those ballistic missiles. The death toll in
Israel jumping, I think it's fair to say, in the recent 48, 72 hours or so, perhaps a sign that their air defenses have not been as impenetrable as we
have seen them in the past.
But a war now, I think, which I say a conflict now where diplomacy maintains a position somewhere in the background, it is clear that U.S.
President Donald Trump, has some sort of desire for a deal to emerge from this. But I think the ultimate question is whether Iran could stomach some
kind of diplomacy bringing conflict to an end.
It's been clear it doesn't want to talk until it sees Israeli air strikes stop, and potentially does not want to display the weakness of asking for
diplomacy intensely while it's under attack like this, and at the same time too, when is potentially, does Israel feel its military objectives the key
one of disabling any hopes of an Iranian nuclear program, when are they necessarily achieved?
We may still be talking days, if not a week or so, until those questions are answered.
GIOKOS: Right. Nick Paton Walsh, thank you so much for that. I want to get now a view from Israel, and we've got Nic Robertson, who's in Tel Aviv, at
one of the cities targeted by Iranian missiles. Nic, I want you to tell me where you are right now and what you're seeing.
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Center of Tel Aviv and what you're looking at here is the impact crater from one of the Iranian
ballistic missiles. Not the biggest sort of missile there are. They have missiles. I'm told that a 2, 2.5 times as explosive as this one that was
the impact side here the street ripped up the look of the apartment buildings behind me here.
This is the principal part of the damage. And I'm told that a lot of people were saved here, if you will, because there was a staircase on the outside
of the building, and that meant that absorbed some of the blast. People were in their shelters, trying to sort of stay out of the way, following
the government instructions that when the sirens go off, to stay out of the way. But let's pan around and you get a real sense of how big the damage
is.
[09:10:00]
That I know it's in the shade right now, but that big office complex, the hotel underneath of it shredded dozens after dozens of apartments and
stores down here, the glass blown out the windows now getting boarded up down there. And we're just going to turn around, and I can ask Sanjeev (ph)
to follow me around here.
Then you can see here the residents of the buildings just down here. They are packing up. They're leaving. They're being told to leave. We were down
here earlier in the day, and I was talking to the leader of the opposition here, and he'd come down because he told me his son lives in an apartment
at the back here.
And he wanted a check on the apartment, his son, he said, fortunately, out of the apartment, out of danger, in shelter, but he said he went to have a
look at the bed where his granddaughter is 1-year-old granddaughter normally sleeps. He said it was literally showered with glass.
He said if the family had been in the house, had been there in the rooms when the bomb, when the ballistic missile landed, he said his granddaughter
would have been dead. And we spoke about what Israel wants at the moment, and this question that Israel is determined, they say, to destroy Iran's
nuclear capability, and Israel's desire, at the same time, to have United States join them to make that faster. This was our discussion.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ROBERTSON: How do you fight this? They have a lot more missiles that they can fire. They can keep this up for a long time. It could go on and on and
on.
YAIR LAPID, ISRAELI OPPOSITION LEADER: We will do this until we are sure Iran has lost the capability of becoming a nuclear power because what we
see here is evident to the fact that we cannot afford the nuclear Iran. Because what they are doing now with ballistic missiles they will do with
an atomic bomb on the people of Israel.
They never hid the fact that they are not willing. They want the total destruction of the State of Israel and the death of everybody who lives in
it.
ROBERTSON: But their nuclear facilities are deeply buried, hard to target. You cannot believe that you can destroy the wall?
LAPID: Well, we can try, and we're going to do our best. And it's a big question whether or not the United States should be involved in this,
especially in places like the facilities in for do and others.
ROBERTSON: So, what do you say to the U.S. right now, and President Trump.
LAPID: Listen, President Trump will make up his own mind about what's good for America. But we are telling this is not only a threat for Israel, this
is a word for a threat to the entire globe.
ROBERTSON: So, you want them to come in now, the U.S., others.
LAPID: I think it will be in everybody's interest, the region, the world, the United States, and, of course, Israel. But again, we trust President
Trump is going to do the right thing, not only for America, but also -- for the world.
ROBERTSON: And if they don't come in on your side and support you in the strikes against the Iranian nuclear facilities. What then?
LAPID: Then we will have to continue until we are sure that Iran doesn't have the capability of becoming a nuclear threat to the people of Israel.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ROBERTSON: And what that really means is that this could go on not just days, not just a week, but weeks. Because obviously, Iran's nuclear
facilities are very difficult for Israel to access and destroy in the way that they appear to want to do that. And what does that mean in cities like
Tel Aviv and around the country here in Israel, it likely means more of this.
Israel is targeting those missile launchers, but it says so far, it's only managed to take out 1/3 of them, more than 50, or about 50 missiles fired
last night, and a lot of damage them. Eight people were killed.
GIOKOS: And a lot of damage, Nic. And it's so good to have you on the ground there to see the extent of this. And also, you know the sense that,
it you know that it will take as long as it takes, even if the United States doesn't get involved. But the question is, how long can Iran keep
this up?
You know, there's estimates out there in terms of the missile, you know, inventory. What is your understanding? All right, Nic, I'm sorry, we have
to wrap it up. Thank you, Nic Robertson, for us on the ground. All right, as this conflict escalates, CNN has learned that U.S. President Donald
Trump rejected an Israeli plan to kill Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
That's according to a two U.S. sources. I want to get more on this and what else the president is saying about the conflict from Alayna Treene. Alayna,
good to have you with us. Where's Trump's mindset at this point? You know, blocking the taking out of the Ayatollah and what this fundamentally means
for perhaps diplomatic efforts down the line.
ALAYNA TREENE, CNN WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Yeah, so that decision, and this is from multiple conversations both I and my colleagues at the White House
have had with Trump Administration officials, is that we had learned that Israel had gone to us and said that there was a window of opportunity.
That is the language that they had been using to try and take out Iran's Supreme Leader. And essentially what we were told is that the president
directed his team to tell the Israelis that he opposed that plan.
[09:15:00]
And at the heart of that decision, we were told is that the president believes that a regime changes of that level, of having any sort of U.S.
involvement in trying to do that, or even if the Israelis did that on their own, that would lead to potentially bringing this conflict into a full out
war, and that is what the president and his team wants to avoid.
And that's why there's been this question now for the past several days, after Israel launched those unprecedented strikes at first on the Iranians
is what will U.S. involvement be moving forward so far, we have seen the U.S. help with the defensive capabilities and helping Israel strike down
some of the missiles and intercept some of the missiles that are coming from Iran.
But that is for my conversations, where this administration wants to leave it. They do not want the U.S. involvement to be any more direct than that,
because we have now heard the president continue to argue that he believes a deal is still possible. He said that when he was leaving the White House
yesterday to head to Canada for that G7 Summit. I want you to take a listen to exactly how he put it.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: I think it's time for a deal, and we'll see what happens, but sometimes they have to fight it
out, but we're going to see what happens. I think there's a good chance there will be a deal.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
TREENE: Now Eleni, part of the conversation I heard, just to go further than what the president said there is that behind closed doors, he still
specifically believes that there is a chance as well to have the Iranians stay at the negotiating table to work out with the United States, a
potential nuclear deal.
Now, of course, there are questions of whether or not that is still viable, given what is going on in the Middle East right now, but that is what the
Trump Administration believes could be a potential off ramp to all of this. And I think you have to keep in mind where the president and some of his
allies and people in his party you know have taken a stance on this so far, is that he essentially ran for office, and he came into his new
administration by saying he wanted to be a global peacemaker.
And so, bringing the U.S. into this in a far more direct way at this point is still something he wants to avoid. And behind the scenes, in my
conversations with Trump Administration officials, they are very skeptical of getting involved further, because they do not want this to be another
war and specifically a war that this administration helped bring the United States into.
And so that's why this is such a precarious position at this point. Now, again, I will argue, though that we continue to hear as well that this
could change that one thing that Israel has been very clear on is that they want to wipe out Iran's nuclear capabilities. And really, in order to do
that, and really to speed up that process, the U.S. involvement would be very, you know, effective in helping them do that.
But at this point, we are continuing to hear that, that is not what the president wants to do. I do want to read for you just something he told ABC
News yesterday, because I think it kind of speaks to this in a very emblematic way. He said, quote, we're not involved in it.
It's possible we could get involved, but we are not, at this moment, involved. And that is really where things stand, of course, as we continue
to see this conflict escalate, we continue to hear the Israelis having these conversations privately with the Trump Administration, the door is
open that more U.S. involvement.
You know, could eventually be something that they agreed to, but for now, they are really trying to keep this at a defensive aid posture and not move
further into this, Eleni.
GIOKOS: All right. Alayna Treene, thank you so much. Our Stephen Collinson wrote an interesting analysis for us on this about the many national
security considerations, not to mention domestic political considerations that President Trump has to take into account.
Stephen Collinson joins us now from Washington. Stephen, there's just so much on the table. I mean, frankly, if the end game for Israel is to
destroy Iran's nuclear capabilities, they will need the United States to get directly involved. That's just the reality that we're seeing.
President Trump clearly trying to keep this at arm's length, big question on whether, if or you know whether it's when they'll get involved. What is
your understanding of the way that President Trump is thinking about this conflict right now? Because he opened the door and saying, well, maybe
there's still a deal on the table, and that was on his way to the G7.
STEPHEN COLLINSON, CNN POLITICS SENIOR REPORTER: Well, Trump always thinks there's a deal on the table. You have to say that he hasn't been that
effective in getting any deals in his second term, whether it's on big international issues like ending the war in Ukraine or the war in Gaza, or
on trade, but at least by talking about a deal and a possibility of resuming diplomacy with the Israelians.
As unlikely as that might sound, given the current circumstances, he is sort of kicking the ball down the road a bit, putting off a decision. The
big question in Washington this morning is whether the president can keep the United States out of this. First of all, if, for example, the Iranians
were to decide to start targeting U.S. bases in the Middle East that would automatically draw the U.S. in.
And that might prompt the president to make a big decision, to go very hard with force, perhaps, to target that nuclear facility at Fordow, as he
doesn't want to do right now.
[09:20:00]
But he's very conscious of his domestic constituency always Trump. And one of the reasons he was elected for the first time, 10 years ago, in fact,
today, was when he announced his first campaign, was because of this long fatigue among Americans with protracted foreign conflicts.
If you listen to what Trump said in Saudi Arabia on his trip in March, he hit out against intervention lists and nation builders. That was talking
about the sector of the Republican Party, which is smaller than it was, but that does want him to intervene on behalf of the Israelis in this conflict?
GIOKOS: Yeah. I mean, look, President Trump did categorically say that he wants to be viewed as a peacemaker. Doesn't want to get involved in wars,
but there is a huge ideological split between the more hawkish wing of the Republican Party and Trump's MAGA base. I want to give you two examples,
Stephen, I want you to listen to how Former Vice President Mike Pence summarized the hardline position.
COLLINSON: Now, if the Iranians want to stand down, I think the president has made it clear he's willing to enter into negotiations, but there can be
no nuclear program of any kind, no enrichment program of any kind. And at the end of the day, if Israel needs our help to ensure that the Iranian
nuclear program is destroyed once and for all, the United States of America needs to be prepared to do it.
GIOKOS: Taylor Greene, a MAGAFI brand, says this, anyone slobbering for the U.S. to become fully involved in the Israel Iran war is not America first,
MAGA. We are sick and tired of foreign wars, all of them. So, Stephen, I'm sure President Trump is looking at these sorts of two diverging opinions.
What's your sense on the way that the Republican Party is viewing things very differently?
COLLINSON: Well, it's a fascinating glimpse those two examples of the different forces inside the party. Former Vice President Mike Pence
represents a remnant of the Republican Party that used to be much bigger, which is quite closely allied with the Likud party in Israel and has long
been agitating for action against Iran.
The argument there is that Iran has been so weakened by the Israeli offensives against Hezbollah and Hamas. It's in a period of transition as
the Ayatollah ages, and it's not clear what happens next. It's -- there is this window that the United States could use to try to end the nuclear
program once and for all.
And perhaps not have all the dire consequences that people have long dreaded in a war between the United States and Iran. However, the Trump
base, many of those rural Trump voters, they came from families of people who did the fighting in the Iraq and the Afghanistan wars.
The hundreds of Americans that were killed in those wars, which eventually the U.S. lost. In his speech in Saudi Arabia, Trump spoke about how when,
for example, you push for regime change, you don't know what comes next.
GIOKOS: Yeah.
COLLINSON: And I think there is a real concern in the president's mind that he's going to get pulled into something that he can't get out of, and his
legacy will end up being the same as George W. Bush's legacy.
GIOKOS: All right. Stephen Collinson, thanks so much for that update. Right, I want to take us to a short break, and after that, we'll head to
Canada for the G7 summit. The conflict between Iran and Israel is sure to dominate that agenda, but world leaders will also be trying to hash out
trade deals to avoid more tariff chaos from President Trump. That's all coming up right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:25:00]
GIOKOS: Details of some of the world's richest countries are meeting for the group of seven summit this week in Canada, where the agenda has been
taken over by the Israel Iran conflict. U.S. President Donald Trump arrived late Sunday, and he's expected to meet with Canadian Prime Minister Mark
Carney in the coming hours.
We've got CNN's Paula Newton joining us live from Dead Man's Flats in Alberta, near where the summit is being held. Paula, great to see you. Look
geo politics was always going to be part of the agenda, but of course, tariffs and trade were basically going to dominate in a big way.
That's changed. It's all about Israel, Iran. Take us through what this means for global leaders watching on and wondering what the end game is
going to be?
PAULA NEWTON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: You know, it's interesting. Canadian officials have gone out of the way to kind of lay the groundwork for that
conversation about Israel and Iran. At issue here is a lot of them, in fact, aligned with President Donald Trump in wanting to try and de-escalate
the situation.
Let's be clear, though, Eleni, no one is pretending that, that will be easy or even possible. Canada's Foreign Minister reached out to allies in the
Middle East, but also in Europe, to try and understand where everyone sits in terms of asking for that de-escalation. Donald Trump will come to the
table, obviously giving what is an opinion and at this point we understand, as you've seen the reporting, that the president does want de-escalation at
this point.
What is really crucial, though, is how the president pivots towards Russia on this issue. The president has believed for weeks now that Russia could
be instrumental in trying to get a deal with Iran. I'm not sure that anyone else around the table, Eleni, to be clear, really believes that that is
true.
Going to the other topics that will still be front and center. It is trade. We expect a bilateral meeting between Prime Minister Mark Carney and the
president in a couple of hours. After that decision, the sessions begin in earnest. And what is different than perhaps Donald Trump's first term, is
he does have a very good working relationship already with Japan?
The European allies, the UK Prime Minister and now even the Canadian Prime Minister. They are expected to get through a lot of decisions in terms of
trade. They may not really feel as if they can get to the details in a trade deal that need to get through. But in terms of where they're headed,
Donald Trump himself before he left for the summit, indicating that some progress is possible.
But as you point out, Eleni, it isn't just Israel and Iran, right? We have a very heavy session here that also includes Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy
on his way, crucially, will have a bilateral meeting with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the president tomorrow, and again, the allies around the
table today in a more intimate setting, in the Canadian Rockies, with just the G7 group and Europe will hopefully have a frank discussion about where
they go on that global conflict as well.
GIOKOS: Yeah. I mean, there's just, frankly, so much uncertainty, and, you know, heading into these G7 meetings, it's about setting the theme and the
agenda and perhaps getting rid of the uncertainty that we see globally. One of those are self-inflicted, because it is trade and it is tariffs.
And whether we're going to see settlement of that Paula is there, I guess optimism that will find a way forward on those key issues that have
unsettled the global economy.
NEWTON: I mean, Eleni, you and I can really lean into that cliche, right? There is cautious optimism.
GIOKOS: Yeah.
NEWTON: I think, though we have heard from the administration that 10 percent tariff is still the bottom line for Donald Trump, how he makes
deals on the side will be interesting here. And again, these will be verbal deals, frameworks of deals, the way he's already done with the UK.
No one is expecting any hard and fast detail. But what markets and business leaders around the world will be looking for is if they can tamp down some
of the pressure on the global economy, and that is what is at issue around the table.
[09:30:00]
Remember Eleni, even if you just look at steel, you know, in the past few days, Donald Trump upping the ante on that, on steel, increasing tariffs to
50 percent not backing away. He is still saying, look, we have our deals. We're just going to present them to these leaders in the next few weeks.
Watch very carefully in terms of what these allies can get from Trump in terms of commitments, they definitely will have some pull asides with him.
GIOKOS: Yeah.
NEWTON: And as I said, this is a very controlled environment. They are secluded in the Canadian Rockies and for security reasons, but also to
really try and have some frank and open discussions. I want to remind you, before I let you go, Eleni, though, that there is not going to be a final
communique here, as we've had in past, G7s.
GIOKOS: Yeah.
NEWTON: Canadian officials saying we may get some very targeted pronouncements on very key issues.
GIOKOS: No final communique, OK, well, I mean, that's definitely been very cautious, especially on the optimism front. We just had the bell ring in
New York, markets have officially opened, futures were looking positive. It seems that market participants are trying to assess what we're seeing
between Israel and Iran and whether that's going to be contained.
We're going to check in on the oil price right after this. Paula Newton, thank you so much. We'll still keep an eye on the G7 meetings, and we'll
bring you an update as that happens. We're going to a short break. We'll be back right after this. Oh, there we go. Oil prices down 1 percent green
crude, WTI crude down 1.7 percent.
And we'll bring you an update on the impact on the oil market supply demand on the back of these geopolitical tensions that are rising in the region.
We'll be back right after this. Stay with CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GIOKOS: Welcome back. I'm Eleni Giokos, live in Abu Dhabi, and you're watching "Connect the World". Now Wall Street is open for the first trading
day of the week. After dismal performance on Friday, we saw that sell off because of the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran.
We saw oil prices shooting much higher. But let's check in on the U.S. markets. Well, here we go. The WTI crude down 1.8 percent, Brent crude down
1.8 percent as well. A little bit of steam taken off the oil market, perhaps assessing the real impact on supply after the strike in Israel and
also in Iran on those oil assets.
I want to check in on the U.S. markets very quickly, and you can see they're doing much better today than what we saw on Friday. So, a bit of a
rebound. And, of course, all eyes also going to be on the G7 perhaps a little bit of news coming through on whether we're going to see a little
bit of resolution on the tariff scenario that is playing out. Of course, the trade war very much happening.
[09:35:00]
The DOW, the NASDAQ and S&P, all sitting in positive territory as we speak. Right, we've got Amena Bakr, who's the Head of Middle East and OPEC Plus
Insights for Kpler Analytics and Market Intelligence Company specializing in energy as well as shipping. We are now joined by her Amena, great to
have you with us.
And Amena, I want to start off with these images, because I think they're very important in terms of the context of what we've seen over the last few
days. Iran strikes on the Haifa oil refinery in Israel. And then we also have images of the Israeli strike on Iranian oil assets as well.
And really important to note that oil assets between Israel and Iran have always been off the table. Whenever we've seen strikes and counter strikes.
That has now changed, oil prices hit a five-month high, they're now slightly softer. Tell me what's being priced in and how market participants
are assessing this new reality.
AMENA BAKR, HEAD OF MIDDLE EAST & OPEC PLUS INSIGHTS FOR KPLER: Thank you very much, Eleni, and you've highlighted something very important that we
haven't seen attacks on energy infrastructure before, but now this has kind of been broken by Israel first attacking South parts, and then we're seeing
the retaliation from Iran attacking facilities in Israel.
So far, I mean the impact first, when the market, I mean, heard of the attacks, of course, you have a geopolitical premium that was added to the
price, and that's why we saw the price go up. But now the market is starting to assess what's really happening here. We don't have an actual
disruption in supply.
Global supplies have not been impacted. The fundamentals have not been impacted. So that's why I think the market is kind of getting used to, the
level of attacks we're seeing here, and therefore the drop in the price that we're seeing today.
GIOKOS: So, Iran is also threatening to block the Strait of Hormuz. How realistic or imminent do you think that will be because the straight
carries about a fifth of global supply? So, what would that mean ultimately for oil prices, and how much of that has been ultimately priced in, if at
all?
BAKR: I think, Eleni, I mean, the threats are coming from low level officials from Iran. I don't think the threat is real, and that scenario is
very unlikely. However, given how volatile the situation is, it's really hard to say that it's never going to happen, but I would say it's very,
very unlikely.
20 percent of the world's supplies, as you said, passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is huge. I mean, if we do have a stoppage or a blockage of
the strait, we do expect oil prices to reach three-digit levels. And so far, I mean, we're not seeing any signs of that at Kpler.
We're still seeing marine traffic normal in the strait. And in fact, even Iranian exports are still normal, and we're seeing normal levels of
loading.
GIOKOS: OK, so Amena, I mean, I want to play out some scenarios here. If Israel and Iran continue to strike each other's assets, and this we see an
escalation. What's the prognosis in terms of worst-case scenario where the oil price will go and is that something that is on the cards for market
participants right now as a probable scenario?
BAKR: I think the market is not factoring in a worst-case scenario. If it was, we would have seen oil prices go a lot higher. I mean, the market is
yet to see an actual supply disruption for it to respond drastically. At the same time, Eleni, we need to remember that the market is well supplied
at the moment.
Plus, you have OPEC, which has spare capacity, which could be tapped into. The group could always hold an emergency meeting and increase their supply
to the market. That's not happening right now. And you also have stocks from the IEA. But again, we need to actually see a physical disruption, the
attacks ongoing.
Of course, that elevates risk, but I think the market has been brushing off geopolitical risk for a really long time, and what I'm sensing right now at
least with the drop that we're seeing today, that they're getting used to the current level of risk.
GIOKOS: Yeah, I mean, exactly so much of this has been pricing. But I just want for our audience to understand how important Iranian oil supply is,
despite the sanctions. Give me a sense of how important Iran is right now, because you mentioned OPEC has extra supply.
The IEA also has a bit of supply can pump into the market. But give us an understanding of where Iran stands in terms of global oil supply.
BAKR: Sure, the Iranians, I mean, they've been really good in bypassing sanctions. They have a very sophisticated network now that could easily
bypass all the sanctions, and they've been able to keep their exports at levels of 1.6, 1.7 million barrels a day, and their production is over 3
million barrels a day consistently. The bulk of that supply, Eleni, goes to China, so that is their main market.
GIOKOS: Yeah.
[09:40:00]
BAKR: And a lot of it is well, go through the Strait of Hormuz. So, China, theoretically, is going to be affected by the fact, if Iran decides to
block the strait, this would hurt China, and that's one more reason I don't think it's going to happen.
GIOKOS: All right, Amena Bakr great to have you with us. Thank you so much. Right, Israeli strikes have hit oil fields and, crucially, nuclear
facilities. Now I want to show you this map, which gives you some idea of the scope of Israel's strike so far. Natanz is the main enrichment
facility, but possibly not the key to Iran's nuclear program Isfahan and Fordow have also been hit.
Now it remains unclear how much damage was done with each side, unsurprisingly, giving contrasting accounts of the destruction. Meantime,
Iran is launching more strikes on Israel in retaliation, and as we've been discussing, many of these attacks are making it past Israel's iron dome,
one of the most complex and effective missile defense systems in the world.
I want to bring in Raphael Cohen, the Director of Strategy and Doctrine Program for the RAND group. Great to have you with us, Raphael. I want to
start off with Israeli defenses and the system, which is multi-tiered. And we've got a graphic up for our audience to take a look at.
You've got the iron dome, which we know about. You've got the THAAD system, which protects up to 200 kilometers, David's sling. And then you've also
got the Arrow 3 and 4 systems. We're seeing devastating images from Tel Aviv in particular. You've got missiles breaching these defenses.
What can you tell us about Israel's capabilities and why these missiles were able to breach this multi-tier defense structure?
RAPHAEL COHEN, DIRECTOR OF STRATEGY AND DOCTRINE PROGRAM FOR RAND: Well, first of all, thank you so much for having me on. I think it's important
for your audience to realize that air defense systems are not foolproof and that all markets are not the same.
So, what you've seen till now, for the last year and a half of conflict, is Israel intercepting, primarily, fairly crude rockets coming out of Gaza,
somewhat more sophisticated rockets coming out of Lebanon from Hezbollah, but Iranian missiles, these sort of short and medium range ballistic
missiles, are much more advanced, and they have a much larger payload, which increases the amount of destruction.
Now, as you mentioned, Israel has sort of a multi-tier air defense system. It's probably the best in the world, covering a smaller areas Israel is,
but nonetheless, you fire several 100 rockets, chances are you will have between 5 to 10 percent of those rockets, missiles, I should say, hit their
targets, and that's what's causing the destruction thus far.
GIOKOS: You know, Iran has been in this tit for tat with Israel multiple times since October 7th, but we haven't seen this level of strikes in
Israel. Iran has also said, look, we've got surprises, we know, but we don't know what that ultimately means, what understanding of Iran's
capabilities and how long they can keep this up for?
COHEN: Sure. So, Iran, if you go back to October 6th, 2023 had basically two trump cards, if they could play. They have their proxy network, and
then they have their missile capacity -- to the last year and a half of fighting, a lot of Iran's proxy network has been fairly severely degraded.
It's notable that when this war kicked off, Hezbollah's crown jewel in Iran proxy network said, we're sitting it out. Now they still have some slack
capacity, particularly with the Houthis, to lesser extent, with Iraqi militia that can inflict some sort of damage on Israel.
They also have -- which we've talked about earlier by Israeli Council. Iran still has about somewhere between 1500 to 2000 of these missiles still in
place, considering that Iran is following a couple 100 a day, then this attack out for several weeks, at very least, if not longer.
And then lastly, we also have trump cards that the Iranians have played in the past. They haven't really used to a great extent today, which is sort
of covert action, assassinations and like they've done this in the past. We have seen reporting from the Israelis saying that they foil some of these
plots, but we haven't had seen any of these actual go into full effect.
GIOKOS: Yeah. OK. I want you to take a listen to Lindsey Graham talking about the U.S.'s involvement and whether they should get involved. Take a
listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-SC): If diplomacy is not successful and we left with the option of force, I would urge President Trump to go all in to make sure
that when this operation is over, there's nothing left standing in Iran regarding their nuclear program. If that means providing bombs, provide
bombs. If that means flying --
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: -- busting bombs?
GRAHAM: Whatever bombs, if it means flying with Israel, fly with Israel --
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GIOKOS: I want to ask you this, Raphael, because I think this is important.
[09:45:00]
You've seen nuclear facilities that have been hit, but to truly make a dent in demolishing Iran's nuclear capabilities, you'd have to hit underground
bunkers and underground centrifuges. Can that only be done with the help of the United States with bunker busters, essentially.
COHEN: So, there are other ways to do it. There's been talk about doing the special grade using cyber simply hitting it multiple times could have that
fact of going after those underground bunkers. That said it's easier for the United States to go after, particularly sites like Fordow which is deep
underground, compared to the Israelis.
And the reason for that is the United States is one of the few countries in the world that have heavy bombers, the B-52 the B-2 stealth bomber. These
can carry far larger payloads, and what Israel has -- fifteens and sixteens and that can have that explosive penetrating -- to really neutralize the
Iranian nuclear facilities.
GIOKOS: Right Raphael Cohen, thank you so much for those insights. Good to have you on the show with us today. Moving on now, and the 57-year-old
accused of killing a Minnesota state lawmaker and her husband has been caught following a dramatic two-day manhunt, ahead on CNN, how officials
tracked him down and next steps in the case. We'll be back right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GIOKOS: The largest manhunt in Minnesota State's history is now over, and the 57-year-old suspect accused of shooting two state lawmakers and their
spouses is now in custody. Officials say Vance Boelter was arrested late Sunday in a wooded area near his home in green Isle, following a nearly
two-day manhunt.
20 different SWAT teams and hundreds of detectives took part in the search, and he's charged with two counts of murder and two counts of attempted
murder. Boelter is expected to make his initial court appearance later today. We've got CNN's Danny Freeman joining us now from Minneapolis
outside the Hennepin County Courthouse.
Look, what more are we learning 48 hours of searching for the suspect? What do we know about him? And what more do we know about the police
investigation that's underway?
DANNY FREEMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, Eleni, a fascinating turn of events, less than 48 hours, in fact, since 57-year-old Vance Boelter was
accused of opening fire at the homes of two lawmakers early Saturday morning here Minneapolis or in this area I should say. The Minnesota State
police say that this is the largest manhunt ever in the state.
And we really saw that completely on display yesterday when we were out in a lot of the search zones. So, where we are right here in the Minneapolis
area, this is where the shooting took place, not too far from where we are, about 11 miles north. Well, this man was apprehended about 50 miles to the
southwest of where we are, almost about an hour away.
And that area, they were completely on edge yesterday, they got an alert on their phones that the suspect's car had been found. Law enforcement
officials believed that he was potentially hiding in the woods of the farmland areas.
[09:50:00]
We were with residents all day yesterday, as heavily armed police officers and SWAT units were combing through these fields, knocking door to door on
residences, trying to find any evidence of the suspect. Finally, at around 07:00 p.m. according to the Minnesota Star Tribune here.
A trail camera actually picked up a sighting of this suspect that helped police focus in a certain area, again, in this dense farmland out there.
And also, then police were able to use drones, helicopters and infrared technology to finally, ultimately locate him. Officers were actually
crawling to try and ultimately get close to him, and they convinced him to surrender.
Police said that he was armed when they found him, and yet still no one was injured as they took him into custody. A tremendous amount of relief here
all across Minnesota, and I just want you to take a listen to what the Governor of the State, Tim Walz said about this moment of violence in the
state's history.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV. TIM WALZ (D-MN): This cannot be the norm. It cannot be the way that we deal with our political differences. Now is the time for us to recommit to
the core values of this country, and each and every one of us can do it. Talk to a neighbor rather than arguing, debate an issue, shake hands, find
common ground.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
FREEMAN: Now, Boelter, the suspect is back here in Hennepin County. He's going to make his first court appearance, as you noted just a little bit
this afternoon, he's facing multiple murder charges as well as attempted murder charges. Will be inside of that courthouse to tell folks what is
going on inside of there, Eleni.
GIOKOS: All right. Danny Freeman, thank you so much. Donald Trump has issued a new order for immigration officials to ramp up mass deportations.
In a social media post, the U.S. President told officials to expand efforts in quotes, the Democrats power center. The White House has publicly praised
its immigration crackdown, but multiple sources say it has privately criticized officials for not meeting arrest quotas.
CNN is also learning that only a fraction of the migrants taken into custody since October have been convicted of violent or sexual crimes. And
that's according to government documents that have been obtained by CNN, which contradict Trump Administration claims of criminal immigrants who,
quote, reigned terror on American communities.
Right, when we come back, an update on the war in Gaza, where dozens were killed by Israeli fire over the weekend. We'll bring you an update on that
in just a bit. Stay with CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:55:00]
GIOKOS: As the world turns its attention to Israel's conflict with Iran, dozens of Palestinians were killed by Israeli fire in Gaza on Sunday. And
you can see a car ablaze in Khan Yunis hit by an air strike at dawn, at least five people were killed and dozens more injured at aid distribution
points run by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation.
Mass shootings at the eight sites run by the Israel and U.S. back group become a nearly daily reality. The Palestinians must face a risk or go
without food.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KHAMIS NOFAL, RELATIVE OF VICTIM KILLED AT AID SITE: This child's father either goes to bring him food, he comes back, carried in a shroud full of
his blood. We clean his body and bury him while his family cries on him, or they would die due to hunger. It's bad either way.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GIOKOS: Meantime, Palestinian citizens of Israel have long warned of a glaring inequality that exists throughout their communities, and many say
they lack access to adequate bomb shelters. The Palestinian Israeli town of Tamra is a prime example. Four members of a family were killed there by
Iranian strikes over the weekend.
Right, we'll be back with more on the Israel-Iran conflicts in the second hour of "Connect the World", right after the short break stay with CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
END
