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Iranian Hard-Liners Call for Strong Response to U.S. Strikes; Iran's Foreign Minister: Iran "Has to Respond" to U.S. Attacks; Iran and Israel Trade Attacks for 11th Day; IMF Says Attack Amplifies Economic Uncertainty; Trump Floats Iran "Regime Change" Idea in Social Media Post; CNN Tours Aftermath of Iranian Missile Strike in Tel Aviv. Aired 9-10a ET
Aired June 23, 2025 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:00]
BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST, CONNECT THE WORLD: Well, on the left you see live pictures from Haifa in Northern Israel, as Iran and Israel have traded
strikes again this Monday. On the right of your screen, live pictures from the White House, where President Trump is standing by to see how Iran will
respond to the weekend strikes by the U.S. on nuclear facilities. It's 04:00 p.m. in Haifa. It's 09:00 p.m. in Washington, 05:00 p.m. here in Abu
Dhabi. I'm Becky Anderson, this is "Connect the World" from our Middle East Broadcasting Headquarters.
The stock market in New York will open about 30 minutes from now, and this will be the first trading session after those weekend strikes by the U.S.
Futures, indicating a pretty flat open. It has to be said, this is a case of watch and wait to see how Iran might respond to the weekend strikes.
Trade is keeping a keen eye on volatility in the oil market.
Should Iran opt to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key strategic waterway through which a huge chunk of the world's energy supplies flow, those
prices could spike significantly. We start with another day of attacks between Israel and Iran. Israel's defense minister saying the Israeli Air
Force struck, quote, the heart of Tehran with unprecedented force.
Targets include the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Headquarters in the Iranian Capital, and the notorious Evin prison, which has a long record of
human rights abuses. And Israel says it struck access routes to the Fordow Nuclear Facility that after the U.S. attacks on Fordow and Iran's two other
main nuclear sites Sunday morning.
Much more on that major escalation from over the weekend in a moment. I want to stay, though, focus on what is happening right now in Iran. I will
get you some, what are frankly remarkable images filed a short time ago by our CNN team on the ground in Tehran. They witnessed a major Israeli aerial
bombing. Take a listen to our Fred Pleitgen in just a couple of hours ago.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: So, we've just witnessed a massive air strike here on the area of sort of Northern Central
Tehran. We actually went downstairs into a shelter once we heard planes overhead, and then we heard explosions. You can see now, the sky over the
Northwest of Tehran is completely filled with smokes.
It seemed to us as though it were several really, really strong impacts that took place. And if we look over to the left here, you can see the
smoke seems to be emanating from that area that's more towards the West of Iran, the sort of Northwest of Tehran, of the Iranian capital.
This is the first time since we've been here that we've seen a heavy air strike like this in the fairly central part of the city. So, we're only
going to be able to be up here for not much longer. But this is definitely something that I wouldn't say is unprecedented, definitely something that
we haven't seen in the past couple of days coming, of course, exactly after the Trump Administration struck those nuclear facilities and the Iranians
are vowing revenge for that.
Of course, the Israelis also continuing their air campaign, and right now, as you can see, the skies over Tehran filled with thick, black smoke. Fred
Pleitgen, CNN, Tehran.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Well, Iran firing more missiles into Israel today. This dash cam video shows the moment of impact from a strike near Ashdod. Air raid sirens
have been heard today in Jerusalem, in Tel Aviv, and across Northern and Central Israel.
Well, the U.S. now assessing the damage from those weekend strikes on Iran's three major nuclear sites. President Donald Trump and his top
officials, describing the attacks as a one-time mission, though he has been holding open the possibility of future U.S. military action without a
negotiated peace.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: Remember, there are many targets left. Tonight's, was the most difficult of them all, by
far and perhaps the most lethal. But if peace does not come quickly, we will go after those other targets with precision, speed and skill, most of
them can be taken out in a matter of minutes.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Well, hardliners in Iran calling for a strong response to the U.S. strike. So far, there's been no public reaction from Iran Supreme
Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iran's foreign minister in Moscow today to meet with the Russian President Vladimir Putin promising a response to the
U.S. attacks will happen.
[09:05:00]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ABBAS ARAGHCHI, IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER: My country has been under attack, under aggression, and we have to respond based on our legitimate drive of
self-defense, and we will do that as long as needed and necessary.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: What that response looks like, unclear at this point. I'm joined now by CNN's Chief International Security Correspondent Nick Paton Walsh
and CNN's U.S. National Security Reporter Zachary Cohen. Nick, let's start with you. There has been an awful lot of Israeli action over Tehran and
other parts of Iran today. Fred filed that report our viewers have just seen some hours ago. What are we hearing from Iran today?
NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. I mean, it does appear, from what we know publicly, that we've seen probably
the second biggest wave of Israeli air strikes to hit Iran since this phase of the conflict began, I think about 10 days ago now. 50 Israeli aircraft,
100 targets, according to the information that we have.
Amongst the places hit well, you saw the startling images Fred reported behind him there Central Tehran, apparently, many areas related to the
Revolutionary Guard Corps, part of the targets in this wave, but also to the political prison of Evin, suggestion that that has indeed been hit as
well, where many of the opponents of the regime are incarcerated.
And also, too importantly, Becky, the Fordow Nuclear Plant, one of the key three nuclear sites hit by the United States over the weekend, the most
impregnable on all of them. You saw the satellite pictures just there with those small holes at the top of the ridge line, the mountain lair complex
in which enrichment facilities are indeed headed.
That apparently has had its access routes hit again by the Israeli air force say the Israeli military. Perhaps looking to cut off access to the
rubble, or prevent things being removed from rubble, or simply other targets of opportunity that the Israelis spotted there. It's that battle
damage assessment, though, exactly what these strikes did that's so utterly key here.
And of course, the concern about what may come next. Look, I should give a reality check here. Iran has not suddenly, since these U.S. strikes become
stronger. Indeed, it's emphasized their weakness in terms of air defense, and we've seen too their missile barrages against Israel, while the images
you saw there near Ashdod horrifying for many Israelis to come under that barrage.
They've been less successful than I think perhaps maybe the Iranian military would have hoped over the past days, and firing less missiles too.
And in fact, a recent Israeli military assessment suggested that the 2500 strong arsenal of missiles that could have hit Israel 800 the Israelis
claim to have been damaged on the ground there are inoperable, and 500 have been fired.
And that leaves them at roughly 1200 possibly left, which some say is about the sort of danger area or known military wants to have less than thousand
or so in their reserves. So, a complex task for Iran to respond the Strait of Hormuz, to which Iran sits at the North key for about a fifth of the
words gas and oil exports.
About half a trillion dollars passes through there every year or so from Saudi, Kuwait, the Qatar as well. That could potentially come under threat.
Indeed, Iran's parliament has suggested blocking it, but that too would damage Iran's main exports hydrocarbons, and indeed damage its key ally of
China.
So, no immediate, obvious, simple retaliation moves for Iran and the U.S. bases nearby have had days of a potential attack telegraphed too. So very
few good choices for Iran. I should point out, though, as well, we've had an updated number in the past days of Iranian, civilian dead, according to
the health ministry in Iran, that's now over 400 so continuing damage done to Iran's Capital, Becky.
ANDERSON: Zach, let me bring you in. Thank you, Nick. What's the U.S. assessment over whether it destroyed the bulk of enriched Iranian nuclear
material, as President Trump has suggested at this point?
ZACHARY COHEN, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER: Yeah, Becky, the status of that already enriched material remains unclear at this early stage, despite
the fact that the White House continues to claim that it completely obliterated Iran's nuclear program, and there's concerns that still linger
as to whether or not Iran maybe moved its stockpile of already enriched material prior to the strikes.
That's something we've heard from U.S. officials in the aftermath of the operation. I mean, look, even though the early returns on the strikes
themselves, particular at Fordow have been that they caused significant damage at these three facilities. There's one facility in particular that
is a little less certain than the others at this point.
[09:10:00]
And that is Isfahan. Isfahan is the only site we're told where the U.S. military did not use those bunker busting bombs that are intended to
penetrate deep underneath the surface. They used those weapons against the other two Iranian facilities. And coupling the questions around Isfahan are
the fact that we're told there's likely tunnel -- a tunnel system -- even deeper underground at Isfahan then at the other two sites.
And that is where potentially, a U.S. official said 60 percent of Iran's already in rich stockpile could be stored. So obviously, again, raising
questions if the U.S. believe that that stockpile was at Isfahan, why not use the bunker busting bombs to hit that site?
Now J.D. Vance, the Vice President, did come out and offer a little bit more of a tempered view of the U.S. assessment of Iran's nuclear stockpile.
Take a listen to what he said when he was asked about whether or not the Trump Administration achieved its objectives.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
J.D. VANCE, U.S. VICE PRESIDENT: We're going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel, and that's one of the things
that we're going to have conversations with the Iranians about. But what we know John (ph) is they no longer have the capacity to turn that stockpile
of highly enriched uranium to weapons grade uranium, and that was really the goal here.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
COHEN: Obviously, more information will continue to come out as that assessment is completed. But in the meantime, American citizens abroad are
on high alert. The Qatari Embassy offering or warning American citizens to shelter in place indefinitely today. Obviously other U.S. military
installations in the region on edge as the U.S. anticipates Iran could retaliate for those strikes over the weekend.
ANDERSON: Good to have you both. Thank you. Let's stay on this, because Tehran now faces a number of key decisions of course. Amir Handjani is a
Fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft. He joins me now from New York.
Strikes today on targets inside Iran, like Evin prison. And as Nick reported there it looks as if this is one of the biggest strikes on Tehran
and around Iran by Israel. We've also seen missiles landing in Israel from Iran today, no sign of de-escalation after these U.S. strikes at the
weekend, what's your assessment of where things stand and what happens next?
AMIR HANDJANI, FELLOW, QUINCY INSTITUTE FOR RESPONSIBLE STATECRAFT: Well, it's nice to be with you again Becky. I think where things stand right now
is Iran is showing defiance. They're showing anger. They are -- because of the U.S. strikes and U.S. mixed messaging over the last two weeks.
Are they behind the Israeli attacks? Are they not behind the Israeli attacks? Is there room for diplomacy? Is it two weeks to two days to two
hours? I think there's deep distrust with -- there was already distrust in Iran with the United States, but I think there's even more distrust with
the Trump Administration.
And so, there's no signal from the Iranians they want to let up. In fact, they want to continue this war and bear the brunt of whatever Israel is
throwing at them and keep on firing missiles at Israel.
ANDERSON: Clearly, Iran has some decisions to make about what it does next in response, it has though vowed a response, a strong response. The Iranian
foreign minister in Moscow today. What role if any is Russia playing today and possibly going forward?
HANDJANI: Well, Russia and China are strategic allies of Iran. The question is, how much are they going to support Iran? Right now, it's in the
diplomatic realm. He wants to rally around, rally the Iran's supposed allies to Iran's diplomatic messaging which is Israel and the United States
are launching a war of aggression on Iran.
Of course, they have to balance that. Russia has other issues right now, with Ukraine, with NATO, with the United States. China doesn't seem to want
to get involved at all. So, he has a tricky path to walk. Iran doesn't have allies the way Israel does, so it's alone in prosecuting this war.
ANDERSON: It's not clear how Iran is likely to respond to the weekend strikes. We can talk about what that response might look like. What is
clear is that this region, and I'm in the Gulf here in Abu Dhabi in the UAE, this region, feels a heightened sense of anxiety and risk at the
moment.
U.S. Embassy in Qatar today telling Americans there to shelter in place until further notice. They say that is out of an abundance of caution in
the UAE Anwar Gargash Special Advisor to the UAE President, told me, quote, the longer a war takes, the more dangerous it becomes. The region cannot
really live with a war that will just go on and on, the sort of blow-by- blow actions that we see every day.
[09:15:00]
And that was some 48 hours ago, and things have escalated since then, live with it seems we must, at present. And of course, we watch and wait at this
point for a response. Do you see an end in sight at this point?
HANDJANI: I don't. First of all, I used to live in the Gulf region as well. And the Gulf states have been very prudent, and their messaging on this has
been pretty unified. Iran was always worried that U.S. would use the Gulf, their base in the Gulf, to attack it. The Gulf did not allow that. These
attacks that the United States carried on Iran did not come from other bases in the Gulf.
So, it would behoove Iran, and be a big mistake if Iran attacked U.S. bases in the Gulf, because right now, the Gulf wants to de-escalate. They thought
they had a very good relationship with the Trump Administration, and they thought they would be able to essentially chart a diplomatic course to
ending this crisis.
And that hasn't really worked, because it seems like Prime Minister Netanyahu and the Israelis have Trump's ear and have the administration's
ear, and essentially, they bought into the Israeli narrative on Iran. And that leads to heightened escalation, and doesn't leave room for de-
escalation.
But that's clearly the path that the Gulf states the GCC want to -- want it to go on, because they don't want this war to carry on, because the more
the war carries on, the greater risks come for miscalculation, for something unforeseen to happen in the Gulf that would spiral out of
control.
ANDERSON: Got a map up showing the guard the Strait of Hormuz, a very strategic waterway carries an enormous chunk of energy supplies, oil and
gas out of the -- out of the Gulf region and around the world, not least for China. 90 percent of Iran's exports these days go to China.
You can see those other countries that use the Persian or Arabian Gulf, depending on what you want to call it, for its energy supplies. How good an
option for Iran would that be if it were to decide to close this strait down? Where is the calculus there?
HANDJANI: It would be a nuclear option for Iran, and I think it would be a very poor one, because that most of their oil, all of their oil comes that
they export, go through the Straits of Hormuz, most of it going to China. So, they'd only be hurting themselves if they were to do that.
And they would be hurting one of their major backers, China. America, gets very little oil from the Gulf region these days. So, I could only see that
happening if the Iranian regime, the government, felt that -- they were in jeopardy and they were about to fall. That's their true nuclear card.
And I don't think that's right now, a likelihood. They've managed to withstand this blow this war is for them. They wanted this war to be a
marathon. They wanted to be a war of attrition. They want to now -- you know inflict pain on Israel, for what -- what they foresee -- what they see
as Israel has done to them.
Israel wanted a sprint. They wanted to decapitate Iran and force a regime change in a short amount of time. That hasn't seemed to -- that hasn't
seemed to have worked for them. So, I don't see that as a good option for Iran at all. And in fact, any good will that they have.
The narrative that they have right now is that they are -- they've been attacked and by an aggressor. That's their narrative. If they were to do
something like that, then -- you know that narrative would change. They be more be viewed as a destabilizing force for the global economy.
ANDERSON: I'll close with this, inside Iran hardline is calling for revenge. A conservative news outlet wrote, quote, American soldiers will
pay the price of Trump's madness with their lives and America's helpless economy, will hear the yelling of taxpayers who will, from this point
forward, have to pay the cost of bombs for a war that will have no results.
Well, this isn't an official government statement, but the editor of that outlet has previously been closely linked with Iran's Supreme Leader. The
foreign minister has said this about the U.S. President, have a listen.
[09:20:00]
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ARAGHCHI: While President Trump was elected on a platform of putting an end to America's costly involvement of forever wars in our part of the world.
He has betrayed not only Iran by abusing our commitment to diplomacy, but also deceived his own voters by submitting to the wishes of a wanted war
criminal who has grown accustomed to exploiting the lives and wealth of American citizens to further the Israeli regime's objectives.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: There is a battle of narratives out there. We have seen that in the States, amongst Republicans, those who are on the sort of America
isolationist, sort of MAGA side of the Republican Party, and those hawks who look for direct military intervention in Iran.
But this is almost as if you know Iran, and its, you know, its voices are speaking directly to a disillusioned American population. What will they
actually do at this point?
HANDJANI: Well, they're trying to speak to the MAGA base, and a large number of that base is tired of the so called forever wars. They want to
focus inward on building up American economic resilience, building up the American economy. They're tired of inflation.
Obviously, since this war has started, there's been a rise in the price of oil, and that will trickle down into their pocketbooks here in North
America. So, you know, the Iranian Foreign Minister, I think, is sort of signaling to that base that, you know, here we go again, trying to get them
to exert some influence over the administration.
As I said, you know, the base, the Gulf states, many people around the world wanted President Trump to continue on the diplomatic path. It seems
that he and the administration, have veered off of that and gone to the Israeli path, which is for confrontation and war.
So, this battle of narratives, Becky, as you've discussed, is something that the Iranians are very attuned to, and they're trying to use their
advantage.
ANDERSON: Yeah, that's fascinating. Amir Handjani, thank you very much indeed for joining us. Just before I get to a break and we leave this
conversation, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Qatar has, in the past hour, just released this statement saying the following, the advisories
from a number of embassies to their citizens do not reflect the existence of specific threats.
That from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in response to a number of advisories, not least one from the U.S., suggesting they're out of an
abundance of caution, suggesting their citizens shelter in place. So, no specific threats these or certainly the advisory from a number of embassies
to their citizens do not reflect the existence of specific threats.
Is the post from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs in Qatar. We are keeping across all of the developments in the region. Coming up, we'll get the view
from Israel, where bomb shelters have been filling up more. Look at signs that both Israel and Iran are shifting tactics in this conflict. More on
coming up.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:25:00]
ANDERSON: Well smoke rising over the Iranian Red Crescent building today, as Israel unleashes a new massive wave of air strikes, targeting, in its
words, the heart of Tehran. Israeli planes also taking aim at Iran's notorious prison as well as military and paramilitary sites.
Meanwhile, in Israel, air raids Iran sounding across multiple cities today, the Israeli government urging citizens to take shelter against incoming
Iranian missiles. One of the strikes landed near an energy facility, disrupting the power supply for some 8000 homes in southern Israel.
I want to bring in CNN's International Diplomatic Editor Nic Robertson, who is in Tel Aviv on assignment reporting from there. And Nic, just describe
what's been happening there in Tel Aviv and around the country today?
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Yeah, I think there's a sense that the Iran's tactics have shifted slightly, rather than sending
barrages of, you know, maybe 20 or 30 missiles, as they have over the past week or so. What has happened is the there was one missile, for example,
fired just around 03:00 a.m. in the morning, or incoming at 03:00 a.m. in the morning.
But that sounded alarms across the country. Everyone had to leave their rooms, leave their beds, go into the bunkers. And then a few hours later,
in the morning, the sirens went off in the north. A few minutes later, they went off in the center, then they went off further south, and then a bit
later on, they went off in the north again, so sort of the country again over quite an extended period before the all clear came in, forced to take
shelter.
So real disruption. And on those sorts of four rounds, four waves, if you will, we're told by the IDF, there are only 5 to 10 missiles incoming. So,
it seems that Iran has switched to firing fewer missiles, but doing them in waves that are disruptive. Disruptive, as you mentioned, their power
damaged and cut off in parts of the country.
Disruptive because there were flights incoming to Israel and from flight tracking radar we could see during these periods where the sirens were
going off, those flights either had to turn around and go back or fly circles out of the mediterranean. So, the tactics have become more
disruptive, without Iran having to increase the number of missiles it's firing rather decrease them actually.
ANDERSON: You make of the Israeli targets, very specifically in Tehran today, including Evin prison, where Iran, of course, keeps dissidents and
foreigners. What's Israel trying to achieve at this point?
ROBERTSON: It's really interesting, number one, because we're given a lot of detail from the IDF about what they're targeting. Obviously, Evin prison
is a prison that has the most sort of for the regime in Tehran, the most dangerous political prisoners, if you will. Foreigners get locked up there.
It's a feared prison. But the IDF also indicating that they've been targeting the forces of Iran's internal security through the conflict. So
far, Israel has been targeting the external elements, the missile launchers, those sorts of things. But now the messaging appears to be that
they're opening the door for people to feel more liberated from Iran security services, and implication by that may be that they're opening the
door to regime change.
And the foreign minister tweeted earlier that Israel had warned Iran not to target civilians. They didn't, he said this morning, this is our response,
showing a picture of Evin jail, meaning, therefore, that the warning was, don't target your own civilians in Iran, to the Iranian regime.
So, it's a message, I think, to the to the people in Tehran. It's a message to the leadership that they will see very clearly that Israel has shifted
part of its military footing towards the unseating of the leadership, which many politicians here believe is the only way that they will be sure that
Iran doesn't turn to nuclear weapons in the future and an aggressive posture against Iran.
[09:30:00]
So that appears to be the shift, and certainly the language is shaping in that direction here, Becky.
ANDERSON: Yeah, Nic, good to have you. Thank you. Nic is in Tel Aviv. Time there is just before half past four. It is just before half past five. In
fact, it is half past five, half past nine in New York. And the opening bell has just rung on Wall Street. Still to come, oil prices jumped then
settled back over the weekend and on the futures market following U.S. strikes on Iran how that industry is remaining relatively steady despite
this uncertainty. Why? Well, that is up next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANDERSON: Welcome back. I'm Becky Anderson in Abu Dhabi. This is our Middle East programming headquarters. You're watching "Connect the World". These
your headlines and the U.S. is now assessing the damage after its weekend strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
President Donald Trump and his top officials describing the attacks as a one-time mission, though, he is holding open the possibility of future.
U.S. military action without a negotiated peace, both Iran and Israel launching intense volleys of attack at each other today, this Monday.
Israel says it struck at regime targets in quote, the very heart of Tehran, and Iran launching missiles at cities from the north to the south of
Israel, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Well, Spain's Foreign Minister calls on the EU to end cooperation with Israel, impose a weapons embargo as
EU leaders meet in Brussels.
Well, let's not rock the boat any further. That is the warning from the International Monetary Fund following U.S. strikes on Iran. IMF Chief told
Bloomberg TV that the weekends attack has amplified an already highly uncertain economic environment that is threatening to hit growth prospects
of the world's largest economies.
In April, the IMF forecast the U.S. had a 40 percent risk of recession this year following Donald Trump's tariff announcements, his flip flops on trade
to a degree. Well, I'm joined now by Robin Mills, who is CEO of Energy Consultancy Firm, Qamar Energy. With the IMF warning, there are economic
risks of this conflict, of course, what do you see is this sort of biggest priority areas at this point?
ROBIN MILLS, CEO OF QAMAR ENERGY: Well, yeah, look, Becky. I mean, there's been a jump in oil prices, but not a huge one. And I mean, not in dangerous
territory yet, but I see you know two dangers.
[09:35:00]
The first is just this is another shock to confidence, along with all the tariffs and trade wars and so on, and a sense of more uncertain and more
dangerous world. And the second one, obviously, is if there is a serious interruption of energy flows, oil and gas flows out of the Gulf, and oil
prices got $100 a barrel plus.
ANDERSON: Well, those concerns are high around the possibility of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. A significant chunk of the world's energy,
oil and gas, passes through there. There have been threats. The Iranian parliament has passed a motion to close the strait.
So, look, I think it's important that we work out, if they talk about the closure of the street. What does it mean? How do they affect that? And
then, you know, just explain what the real impact would be.
MILLS: So, when they say closure, right, this is not the Suez Canal. It's not a few 100 meters wide. I'd say it's a way of, you know, 20 kilometers
or so at the narrowest point. So, when we say closure, we're really talk about attacks on shipping, mines, drones, missiles, something that deter
shipping from going through and that doesn't mean that every ship that tries to sail what will get sunk.
It's enough to kind of damage some ships and scare people and deter passage that way, as we've seen in the Red Sea over the past few months. But if
that does happen, of course, would you see a complete loss of shipping through Hormuz, probably not. Would you see a major reduction of oil and
gas flows and other commodities? Yes, that's a very serious prospect.
ANDERSON: And let's talk. I mean, we've got a map up at the moment. Iran exports all its oil through the Strait of Hormuz. 90 percent of that, as I
understand it, goes to China. So, China has a risk there of a reduction in oil supplies, strategic oil supplies. These other Gulf countries also
export most of their oil and gas through that strait as well, correct?
MILLS: Yeah. So, it depends which country you look at, but indeed, you know, Kuwait, Iraq, essentially all of their oil goes through the Strait
Qatar, all of its oil and liquefied natural gas. Saudi Arabia, in the UAE, they have other options, not all of their supply, but some of it, they can
divert to other places.
ANDERSON: So, all of what we've just been discussing begs the question, why is it that the oil price has not spiked as significantly as we might
expect, given the risk profile here? The very notion that if you and I were having this discussion a year, two years ago, and we said the U.S. would
bomb Iran in support of Israel bombing Iran, but the oil price will hardly move. Would seem almost inconceivable.
MILLS: Yeah, absolutely. Look, I think half of it is the boy cried wolf scenario. We've heard about Hormuz so many times and at times of tension,
and nothing's ever happened. OK, this is the worst tension that we've had in this case. But still, the oil market is waiting to see is something
actually going to happen, and Iran is actually going to attack a ship or take some other action.
And the other half of the issue is the oil market looks and says, Iran exports 1.5 million barrels per day. Spare capacity is more than 4 million.
So, you know, we could cover for a loss. But of course, that isn't accounting for the fact that spare capacity is also in the Gulf,
ANDERSON: And the Gulf does have some alternatives, if hormones were disrupted. There is Saudi Arabia's east west pipeline, UAE's Fujairah
terminal, and Iran's Jask port. Are these viable alternatives?
MILLS: Well, so the east west pipeline carries 5, up to 7 million barrels per day. So, in theory, could carry most Saudi exports, the Fujairah
pipeline, another million a half or so, so about half of the UAE. So yes, that helps. It certainly doesn't solve the problem, and that's for just, I
think any case in which Iran's oil is cut off out of the Gulf just is only just outside the Gulf.
So, we could forget about that too. But it obviously depends what's the nature of the threat. Is it tankers going through Hormuz, or is it a wider
campaign that affects other infrastructure, as of course, we saw in 2019 with the attacks on the Saudi oil processing facilities.
ANDERSON: You talked about, where you see the dangers when you talk to sources around the region, you know, what are you most focused on next?
MILLS: Well, I think, of course, there are precautionary measures. There's only so much that can be done. But over the past few months, it's kind of
coincidental, but OPEC, of course, has increased its production limits, so more oil into the market, more oil into storage. That helps.
I expect the next OPEC meeting will see another increase in production targets. So that will build up some inventories, and then precautions on
shipping. So, for example, having tankers wait outside the Strait of Hormuz until they're ready to load. So, then all stuck in the Gulf, if, if
anything happens.
[09:40:00]
And then obviously looking at the bypass pipelines, as you've just said, you know, beyond that, there's perhaps not too much that can be done run
right now by the industry here.
ANDERSON: It's fascinating. It's good to have you. Thank you very much indeed. Your experience provides us the inside analysis that we need at
this point. Thank you, Robin. And just before we move on, let's have a look at the markets, because they've settled in to the beginning of what is the
first trading day since these U.S. strikes.
And the markets look like this, and they are pretty flat, as we had suggested ahead of time, keeping one eye on the oil markets, one eye of
course, on, you know, what Iran decides to do next, and one eye on what is the sort of battle of narratives I assume as the world, the region, the
world, sits, frankly, you know, as a bystander, waits and watches to see what happens next.
Well, even before reports of Israeli strikes on Iran's photo nuclear site, today. The U.S. is bombing likely caused, quote, very significant damage to
the underground parts of the site. That is, according to the head of the UN nuclear watchdog, however, Rafael Grossi stressing that no group is
currently able to fully assess the underground damage.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RAFAEL GROSSI, DIRECTOR GENERAL OF THE INTERNATIONAL ATOMIC ENERGY AGENCY: Craters are visible at the Fordow site. Iran's main location for enriching
uranium at 60 percent indicating the use by the United States of America of ground penetrating munitions. This is consistent with statements from the
United States. At this time, no one, including the IAEA, is in a position to assess the underground damage at Fordow.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Well, that was Sunday, Grossi calling an emergency meeting of the IEA today, as we get it. Coming up, President Trump signals a regime
change, maybe on cards for Iran, a message that differs from his top officials. More on that is after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
VANCE: Our view has been very clear that we don't want to regime change.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This mission was not and has not been about regime change.
MARCO RUBIO, U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE: This wasn't a regime change move --
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Senior administration officials of the Trump Administration there on the Sunday talk show, sending a clear message. It seems the U.S. mission
in Iran was not about regime change. Well, that differs from U.S. President Donald Trump, who took to social media on Sunday, saying, if the current
regime is unable to, quote, Make Iran Great Again, MIGA as he calls it. Why wouldn't there be a regime change?
[09:45:00]
Well, meantime, top U.S. officials are on the same page with the president regarding the strikes over the weekend in Iran. Have a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
RUBIO: The decision, in my view, was made when he wrote a letter to the supreme leader and he said, over the next 60 days, we want to do a deal
with you and solve this problem of nuclear weaponization.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yeah.
RUBIO: Want to do it peacefully.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: OK.
RUBIO: After 60 days, we don't see progress, or it isn't solved. We have other alternatives. He made that very clear.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Mr. Secretary --
RUBIO: I think what some -- to struggling with here is that we today have a president who does what he says he's going to do.
VANCE: We're going to work in the coming weeks to ensure that we do something with that fuel, and that's one of the things that we're going to
have conversations with the Iranians about. But what we know Jon, is they no longer have the capacity to turn that stockpile of highly enriched
uranium to weapons grade uranium, and that was really the goal here?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Well, here to discuss is CNN Politics Senior Reporter Stephen Collinson. Well, I'm guessing that you watched most of those talk shows
over the weekend, because in your analysis, you quote, wrote President Donald Trump's onslaught on Iran's nuclear plants was the most violent
moment of his two terms and America's 46-year showdown with the Islamic Republic.
Flush with the spoils of battle, he already seems, you say, to be toying with the idea of regime change. Really or is this just part of the art of
deal, as it were?
STEPHEN COLLINSON, CNN POLITICS SENIOR REPORTER: Yeah, that's a good question, because I think that clearly, Trump is feeling pretty good about
what happened. He carried off this mission pretty much on his own volition, sending these B2 bombers around the world, and this spectacular mission,
which from the U.S. point of view, and his point of view was a massive success.
So, I think Trump is reflecting that in a lot of his rhetoric. He wants to show that this was a great success. Part of that is talking to his base,
where there are some people who are a little bit worried. The White House has come out today and said, well, the president wasn't really talking
about regime change.
He was just raising the question of, wouldn't it be great for Iranians if there was another set of leaders, which obviously many people in the U.S.
believe. But I think the question is, is the U.S. taking any concrete steps towards regime change? And I don't think we see that from the U.S. point of
view.
I think you can argue a little bit about the Israeli strategy in this regard, but to your art of the deal point, I'm very skeptical of readings
of this situation that say that Trump is acting on some real strategy and he knows what he's doing. He's improvisational. He's impulsive.
We've seen that over and over and over again, so I think he says things for effect, but sometimes he's testing them out too. So, I've seen him, in
fact, do that at his rallies. He says something extreme, he looks for the reaction to it, and later it becomes a U.S. policy. So, I think you have to
be careful on being too concrete about Trump. But it really is worth reading what he says and listening to him.
ANDERSON: Whatever else we know about him at this point, and you just provided some great insight there. We absolutely know that this is the guy
who is taking decisions. His team says that time and time again. I hear that from people who visited him in the White House.
This is a guy who may be listening. He may not be listening to other people. He may be listening to a crowd. He is the one who's taking or
making decisions. He's facing pressure from lawmakers saying that he should have gotten congressional approval before taking this action. And I want
our viewers to listen to what Senator Lindsey Graham said on NBC.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-SC): He was within his article two authority Congress can declare war or cut off funding. We can't be the commander in
chief. You can't have 535 commanders in chiefs. If you don't like what the president does in terms of war, you can cut off the funding.
But declaring war is left of the Congress. We've declared war five times in the history of America. All of these other military operations were lawful.
He had all the authority he needs under the Constitution. They are wrong.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Is that true, and how is this playing out in Washington?
COLLINSON: I think the president does have authorities under the War Powers Resolution, which was introduced in the 70s to try and clear some of this
up, that he can launch military action, but he does have to report quickly to Congress, and if that action is continuing within 30 to 60 days, then he
has to seek some kind of resolution from Congress to endorse the action. So, I think he's pushing up to the line, but he hasn't necessarily gone
beyond it.
[09:50:00]
We've seen this question repeatedly in recent years, because a lot of U.S. military action has been conducted under Congress's authorization of the
military action following the September 11 attacks in 2001 and the Iraq war resolution, which was passed in 2002 before the war in 2003.
And I think presidents certainly have abused those authorities, and it's something that really does rumble through Washington. That said, I think
there are a lot of lawmakers who talk about this and complain, but when it comes to putting their name on a controversial vote, I think many lawmakers
don't want that vote because they don't know how it's going to turn out.
Just look at Hillary Clinton and at the Iraq war. She voted for that war in 2002 it destroyed her Democratic presidential campaign against Barack
Obama, when the war went bad in 2008.
ANDERSON: It's fascinating. Yeah, all right. Well, that many in this region, I have to say, invoking memories of conflicts pass, including Iraq
and saying, you know, the region does not need this sort of behavior in this region, once again, it's looking for prosperity rather than perpetual
conflict at this point.
Good to have you, mate. Thank you. Still to come, as Iran steps up its attacks on Israel, we look at the damage done to a residential community in
Tel Aviv. That is after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANDERSON: Israel remains on high alert after Iran launched a fresh missile barrage there this morning, prompting emergency shelters to open across the
country, while Israel's emergency response agency says it has dispatched crews to reported impact sites. So far, there are no reports of injuries or
significant damage.
This comes after a residential community in Tel Aviv was hit by an Iranian missile strike on Sunday. And my colleague CNN's Jeremy Diamond was at the
scene.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT: A few hours after those U.S. strikes in Iran, a barrage of Iranian ballistic missiles came raining down
on Israel, and this right here is the destruction that was wrought by just one of those ballistic missiles here in Tel Aviv.
DIAMOND (voice-over): More than 20 people were injured in this strike, which sheared off the side of this residential building, laying bare the
lives of those who once lived here.
[09:55:00]
As cleanup crews pushed piles of debris survivors returned to grab what they can. Many still shaken by what they have just survived and all they
have lost.
JEREMY ZETLAND, LOST HOME IN MISSILE ATTACK: Maybe I do need to take some of these things.
DIAMOND (voice-over): Half a block away from where the missile struck. Jeremy Zetland has spent the day picking through the debris of his
childhood home.
ZETLAND: We used to put the DJ up there, and we used to have parties here, our friends --
DIAMOND (voice-over): Moving from one destroyed room to the next. Jeremy has been trying to separate the things that matter from those that don't.
ZETLAND: It's just things. It's nothing. This is not important, but it's just to --
DIAMOND (voice-over): And in that moment, he is reminded of what is.
ZETLAND: So, who you are, the people and so that's what's important. This is not important, but it's just a symbol of how we're holding ourselves to
be strong. It's hard.
DIAMOND (voice-over): Jeremy Diamond, CNN, Tel Aviv.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ANDERSON: Well, that's it for the first hour of the show. You're watching "Connect the World" with me Becky Anderson from our Middle East programming
headquarters here in Abu Dhabi. We'll be back top of the hour for you with more.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
END
