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11-Year-Old Girl Killed After Kuwait Stops Aerial Threats; Iran Strikes Backs, Targets U.S. Facilities in Middle East; U.S. Market Opens Amid On-going Concerns Over Oil; Oil Prices Have Spiked Amid Fears Over Global Supply; Strait of Hormuz Effectively Closed to Shipping Vessels; U.S. Lawmakers to Vote on War Powers Resolution This Week. Aired 9-10a ET

Aired March 04, 2026 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[09:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST, CONNECT THE WORLD: Welcome to our Breaking News coverage of the war with Iran. This is "Connect the World" live from our

Middle East programming headquarters here in Abu Dhabi. Time is just after six in the evening. I'm Becky Anderson.

Happening moments ago, at the Pentagon, the U.S. Defense Secretary giving a glowing assessment of a war that has spiraled across the region where I am.

Pete Hegseth, saying the results so far have been unprecedented.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PETE HEGSETH, U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY: We are only four days into this, and the results have been incredible, historic really. Only the United States

of America could lead this, only us. But when you add the Israeli Defense Forces, a devastatingly capable force, the combination is sheer destruction

for our radical Islamist Iranian adversaries. They are toast, and they know it well.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Well, this comes as Israel launches a 10th wave of attacks in Iran since the conflict started Saturday, striking what it says are command

centers used by Iran's internal security forces and a militia force that operates under Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Well, the death toll in Iran rising more to more than 1000 people, including children who've been killed, according to a U.S. based Human

Rights Agency. Israel, also striking what it says are more Hezbollah targets in Lebanon and ordering residents of more than a dozen towns and

villages to evacuate.

Iran striking back then today on the attacks on it, the Turkish presidency says NATO air defense systems shot down an Iranian missile that was

traveling towards Turkish air space. This is believed to be the first time NATO forces have intervened in this conflict.

Iran also attacking Israel and targeting U.S. facilities across this gulf region, forcing the U.S. to close embassies in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and

Lebanon and after several were hit. This video shows the U.S. Consulate compound in Dubai on fire. All staff there are accounted for.

Well, Nic Robertson is joining us from Riyadh this hour. And I want to get to this NATO story on the missile bound for Turkey. But before we do that,

we must talk about what we've just heard from Pete Hegseth in a presentation. Let's call it at the Pentagon, alongside the Joint Chiefs of

Staff.

It was a pretty sort of chest thumping presentation from Pete Hegseth saying that in under a week, the U.S. and Israel will have complete control

of Iranian skies. I would want to just hear for our viewers say part of what General Caine had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GENERAL DAN CAINE, CHAIRMAN OF U.S. JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF: We will now begin to expand inland, striking progressively deeper into Iranian

territory, and creating additional freedom of maneuver for U.S. forces.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Chairman Caine there, and across this press conference today, I think, quite clearly defining the military objectives here. And if you want

to sort of sum that up, it appears to me that it is destroying the ability for Iran to project power, decimating its missile program, its use of

drones, et cetera. What did you make of the inside into this military mission, Nic?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Yeah, it sorts of stand slightly in contrast to Israel's framing of sort of trying to destroy

potential emerging leadership in Iran that is emerging out of the ashes of the regime. So, Israel sort of focused on making sure there's no new regime

like regime in Iran, where this is really about diminishing that threat, whether it's the launch sites or the manufacture sites.

[09:05:00]

The comment that they were going now, because of air superiority, not to need to use the standoff munitions, which are sort of, if you will, more

technically superior and standoff means that the aircraft can fire them a long distance from Iran, and threats emerging from Iran, and then those

munitions travel a long distance by themselves to hit targets, replacing them with these JDAMs, the so called smart bombs.

500 pound, 1000-pound, 2000 pound, GPS guided JDAMs, which create a huge impact on the ground and have been used, as seen in Gaza actually most

recently, where the civilian tolls around where they impacted were noticed a notably high. So, it's a switch in munitions, but these munitions would

have huge destructive capability around the sort of more permanent infrastructure that Iran could support an ongoing campaign.

I mean, look, one of the things that really jumped out at me from all of that press conference, Becky, was when General Caine mentioned that the

Gulf states and how they are defending their skies, and how those defense systems are being effective, how Iran is not firing as many missiles as

they were.

But he seemed to comment positively on the restraint that the Gulf countries are exercising not being drawn into the conflict, and made also

the comment that these Gulf countries didn't really want -- don't want this war, don't see it as their war. And I thought those were interesting

comments there, Becky.

ANDERSON: Yeah. And I mean, you know, if the war ultimately sort of prevents Iran's ability to launch missiles at this region where we are. And

let's remind ourselves, you know, I'm uniquely placed to talk about what it feels like to have had just under 1000 missiles and drones launched, lobbed

at this country.

Some 90 percent of course, have been intercepted, but this has been, you know, this country, the UAE, and countries around this region, have been a

real target for both U.S. military and non-military installations, including some civilian and economic sort of hotels and things in Dubai.

I guess at this point, what do we take out from what we've just heard? What do we learn about how long this might take and indeed, how bad things could

get?

ROBERTSON: Yeah, look, I think it could go a long time. You know, the frame that the longest frame it was given there was a couple of months, eight

weeks. It's hard for us to know. And I think you Becky, as you say, uniquely placed to really judge if you see a significant downturn in the

number of Iranian missiles, drones and other things fired the UAE and Abu Dhabi and Dubai.

All of that, you're very well placed to see that. And I think that's what others in capitals like Riyadh will be trying to gage. It was much emphasis

put on how Iran's first night, the numbers of missiles that they fired have gone down significantly from the first night.

But of course, here they tried to make the calculation is that, because Iran is intentionally now recognizing that it might need to conserve its

munitions and then space them out over what could be, as we heard that potentially a couple of months, are they trying to reconfigure to fight

along the war, or is it just they can't fight at the pace that they would like to fight at?

So, you have to sort of stand back and make that assessment over time. And I think in terms of expanding while we heard about the U.S. submarine

taking out that Iranian ship that was in Asia. And you mentioned at the beginning, of course, the missile that was intercepted by NATO as it was

headed towards Turkey, a NATO member raising the question about, is Iran trying to draw NATO into this.

ANDERSON: Let me bring in Nick Paton Walsh, who is with us from Tel Aviv. We have just been listening to this press conference. Nick Paton Walsh at

the Pentagon. Pete Hegseth, the Defense Minister, Secretary of War said, and I quote here, within a week, we will have complete control over the

skies in Iran.

I also want you to hear part of what General Caine said. Stand by.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CAINE: We will now begin to expand inland, striking progressively deeper into Iranian territory, and creating additional freedom of maneuver for

U.S. forces.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[09:10:00]

ANDERSON: What do you make of that insight into the military mission?

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: I have to say when I heard the notion that we're dealing with, sorry, we just heard

an early warning alert here. So, if we're interrupted through sirens, obviously you'll see that.

ANDERSON: OK.

WALSH: I thought the idea that they're still a week away from air superiority seemed to somehow contradict what we've been hearing in the

recent days, that they were pretty close to that already. Certainly, the Israelis have been sounding more confident about that particular notion.

But I think there were lots of indications we got here in terms of how they've been viewing the Iranian response that was interesting,

particularly the concept that they believed the Hegseth elucidated, that they would believe the Iranians were following a kind of pre-planned game

in the opening stages.

We heard that from senior Iranian officials too, that they were dealing with something called a decentralized defense mosaic, which was essentially

units getting instructions, I am presuming, in the event of the supreme leader's death, this is what you do.

And that may explain the extraordinary display you've seen yourself of retaliation by the Iranians across the Gulf, startling, who they were

willing to throw missiles and drones at countries that were against U.S. intervention entirely and are now dragged in out to me, as adversaries to

Iran in this war, that, that was a pre-planned mission, and that they may be moving now into something that is more adapting to the battlefield as

they see it.

General Caine pushed on command and control. What remained, not particularly clear on that, other than saying they would continue to

target, but a really important data point that they got out quite early was the idea that in terms of the one way attack drones that the Shahid, the

cheap, effective, longer range drones that you can fire for not a lot that often are taken down by highly expensive Gulf air defense systems.

That they've seen an 80 plus, sorry, a 70 plus percent drop in those since the early days of this conflict. I say the early days were four days in,

but since the start. And the missile attacks are now down 80 percent plus from that time as well. Here's the sire, I'm afraid, Becky.

We have to move in as a result, and that, interestingly to me.

ANDERSON: That's right. Yeah.

WALSH: Shows that we're dealing with a potential here that the Iranian inventory is reduced, or it's been hit on the ground by this persistent set

of air strikes, or potentially that they're conserving what they do still have in order to be able to protract this conflict over a number of days.

But it gives you a slight sense of the timeline, really, of what the limits on Iran might be, how the U.S. is perceiving that. And then we had this

other change they talked about as well. Let me just guide my cameraman Lewis (ph) through here. But they the United States are moving from a focus

on precision munitions to potentially being in stand in positions where some military experts have said that's going to enable them to use unguided

munitions, dumb bombs, ultimately.

So, two interesting elements there that I think don't give you a sense of any imminent end to this at all, but certainly provide you a timeline as to

how things are changing in terms of people's inventories and stocks and what they're continually able to go and do. You also have to remember that

we're dealing with a target list that's going to some degree, continually grow and expand, but not be infinite.

And so, I also took away from the frankly, peak bravado of Secretary Hegseth speech, the references to no mercy, punching people while they're

down. All of that specific aim, I think, to show the U.S. at peak strength. And that also, remember, gives them leverage in the event that Iran gets a

new leader who decides, perhaps they wish to negotiate, and it may put them in a place where they feel they can project strength.

And I should also say, you know, it's extraordinary too, to see this sinking by the United States of an Iranian vessel that seems to have been

trying to use Sri Lanka to put India between itself and the conflict that, I think, shows the extent of U.S. power they're applying here.

ANDERSON: Yeah.

WALSH: And I think also, you know, it is remarkable to have, perhaps, have seen quite the ferocity of this bombardment over the past day. So back to

you, Becky.

ANDERSON: It's good to have you, and well done. You got inside. You've sought some safety as you await those incoming missiles and or drones from

Iran. We'll leave it there. Nick Paton Walsh, Nic Robertson is in Riyadh. Thanks to both of you. U.S. Defense Chief Pete Hegseth is touting the hits

Iran's military has already taken as the conflict spreads across the region.

At a pentagon briefing earlier, he said a U.S. submarine, as Nick Paton Walsh just pointed out sank an Iranian warship in Iranian waters. What he

says was the first sinking of an enemy vessel by a torpedo since World War Two. Hegseth also said the American military sank what he calls Iran's

prize ship, named after the Former Iranian General, Qasem Soleimani, who was killed by U.S. forces during President Donald Trump's first term.

[09:15:00]

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HEGSETH: The Iranian Navy rests at the bottom of the Persian Gulf. Combat, ineffective, decimated, destroyed, defeated, pick your adjective. In fact,

last night, we sunk their prize ship, the Soleimani looks like POTUS got him twice.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Well CNN's Senior National Security Reporter Zachary Cohen is covering the latest for us from Washington. They showed us some video, that

grainy video, obviously, you know, from shop, from whoever's sort of point of view, was actually marking off that ship, and taking the direct hit on

it.

That was shown at the press conference. How significant is this militarily and symbolically and to strike in an Iranian naval asset in international

waters, Zach, mark a new phase of this direct U.S.-Iran confrontation.

ZACHARY COHEN, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER: Yeah, Becky, it was interesting because this was brought up both by General Caine and Secretary

of Defense, Pete Hegseth. Hegseth obviously a few layers to what he was saying. He was clearly touting the naval superiority of the U.S. forces

over the Iranian forces.

Clearly articulating that U.S. forces will continue to hunt Iranian warships even into international waters and beyond, pointing out to that

this was, according to Hegseth, that the first time a warship had been sunk by a submarine torpedo since World War Two.

And then also pointing to the sinking of a vessel, the Soleimani, obviously named after, like you said, the now assassinated, killed Iranian General

Qasem Soleimani, you know, pointing that out in a way that really was a hat tip to the President of the United States, his boss, Hegseth's boss.

He really wanted. That was a big theme throughout what he said it was touting both the military's prowess, but also getting as much credit as

possible to the President of the United States. He says -- he said something to the effect that the U.S. military sank Iran's prize ship, the

Soleimani, in the Indian Ocean.

Obviously, then goes on to say, I guess POTUS got him twice, referring to Qasem Soleimani, but both the sinking in the Indian Ocean and the submarine

sinking of Iranian warship in international waters. Dan Caine chimed in to say, it really does underscore the reach of the U.S. military, that they

are willing to go really wherever they need to continue striking Iranian targets.

And I think it does also speak to something. Nick was saying that there are concerns and growing concerns, that this conflict is expanding and, you

know, attacking a ship in the Indian Ocean would suggest that, along with what we've seen elsewhere around the region and beyond.

ANDERSON: I do just want to keep you here for a moment, because we run into this press conference with real questions about whether the U.S. actually

had a plan in its action on Iran, whether or not the U.S. actually faced an imminent threat. Those are the questions being asked as Congress men and

women came out of the closed briefing on the Hill yesterday.

I didn't hear the answers to those questions out of this briefing. I mean, it has to be said it was a pentagon briefing, and General Caine certainly

laying out, you know, a series of sort of clear military objectives, not least to ensure that Iran is stripped of its ability to project power.

Now that is important for the region where I am here, who is looking across the Persian Gulf at this point, as it takes incoming volleys of ballistic

missiles and drones and is saying, if that ballistic missile program is swept out, is decimated. That is going to make life certainly here in the

Gulf, more comfortable going forward, Zach.

COHEN: Yeah, absolutely, and but in addition to that, General Caine also making very clear that the timeline and the strategy, the end game here is

a policy decision, and that he doesn't do policy like you said, he's focused, really was intentional in focusing his remarks on the operational

piece of the military's ongoing mission.

The target set the evolution of gaining complete air superiority, as he said, to moving deeper into Iranian territory. But that the question of end

game ultimately lies with the President of the United States, and that's something that Pete Hegseth also referenced.

Thought it was also interesting. You mentioned, sort of the imminent threat, the reasoning for the U.S. involvement in this conflict. And Pete

Hegseth again, offering sort of a varying, evolving explanation for that question as well.

[09:20:00]

He said that the reason was ultimately due to Iran's nuclear ambitions, and then tried to link that to its ballistic missile program, to its

conventional weapons that he says would have provided a shield of sorts to allow it to continue to pursue, and he did reference apparent evidence that

the U.S. believed that Iran was not negotiating about its nuclear program in good faith, and that ultimately is what triggered this decision.

But again, that doesn't exactly line up with what the President of the United States and what Secretary of State Marco Rubio have said. So,

there's still questions on the imminent threat, because, as we know, the international agencies have said that Iran was not days or weeks or even

potentially years from having a nuclear weapon.

ANDERSON: Yeah, it's good to have you. Zachary Cohen in the house for you. Thank you. CNN has learned from multiple sources that the CIA is working to

arm Kurdish forces with the aim of sparking a popular uprising in Iran. Several of these groups have released public statements since the beginning

of the war, hinting at imminent action.

A Senior Iranian Kurdish official tells us that President Donald Trump has spoken with the leader of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan. An

Iranian Kurdish opposition forces are expected to take part in a ground operation in Western Iran in the coming days. Well, let's get you live to

Iraq, where CNN's Chief International Correspondent Clarissa Ward is reporting from Erbil.

And how is the leadership of Iraqi Kurdistan responding to all of this? Just explain, if you will.

CLARISSA WARD, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Becky, this reporting has certainly caused quite a furor here, for many understandable

reasons. I spoke to a senior Iraqi Kurdish official this morning. He told me that they are very frightened and that the situation is very dangerous.

There are real fears that there could be some kind of an Iranian retaliatory attack if those Iranian Kurdish forces go ahead with some kind

of a ground operation into Western Iran. I said, what can you do about this situation? He said, it's very difficult, because how can we stand up to the

U.S.?

And he did underscore that the leadership here in Iraqi Kurdistan has a very warm and good relationship with the U.S., and that they have

absolutely no love for the Iranian regime. But the reality is, Iran is the neighbor. Iran has superior military might, and the Iranians warned them

just a few days ago that if a single Iranian Kurdish fighter crosses that border, there will be severe repercussions.

So now real seated fears about how on earth to respond to this very complex situation. We have also heard from Iraq's National Security Adviser saying

that he has given assurances to the Iranians that the Iraqi Kurds here will send their forces to the border in order to prevent, Becky, Iranian Kurdish

forces from crossing in to Western Iran.

And he also pointed out that one of the real challenges for them with this situation is that they feel that President Trump keeps changing the so-

called strategic objective. One day he told me he's calling for regime change. The next day he's saying something very different. The policy keeps

shifting, and that makes it very hard for the leadership here to keep up with how to respond, Becky.

ANDERSON: Clarissa Ward on the ground in Erbil. Clarissa, thank you. Well, coming up, Gulf countries continue to be under attack as Iran hits back

against the United States. A look at the latest damage across this region. Stand by.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:25:00]

ANDERSON: Well countries here in the Gulf bearing the brunt of Iran's attacks. This was the scene in Dubai Tuesday night at the U.S. Consulate

there. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says all personnel are accounted for after a drone hit the consulate grounds.

Well, the U.S. is authorizing non-emergency employees in Saudi Arabia, Oman and Cyprus, to leave those countries. And in Kuwait, authorities say an 11-

year-old girl was killed by falling shrapnel overnight after its air defense systems intercepted an incoming attack. Paula Hancocks is reporting

in Dubai.

Joins us now live. Paula, the UAE and other Gulf countries then have been on the receiving end of Iran's ballistic missile and drone program now for

five days. As we get through this Wednesday, and it is now half past six nearly local time in the UAE. What's the latest here and around the region?

PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Becky, we have still been hearing incoming here in Dubai, also in the UAE, a number of interceptions

overhead. We've also been hearing a large number of fighter jets in the air. This is really today and yesterday that we've heard this uptick in

fighter jet activity.

What we've also heard is that France has now sent jets over to the UAE to be involved as well. We heard from the French Foreign Minister saying that

the military base they have in Abu Dhabi was hit. So, they decided to get involved to try and protect their military assets and personnel as well.

So, yet another country being drawn into this conflict from Europe, and in that case, we also know that that the Revolutionary Guard is doing what it

said it would. It said it was going to expand its targets to be American political centers as well. So, the U.S. Consulate here in Dubai was

targeted.

We know at least that the parking lot next to that building was hit. No casualties. We're hearing from a source familiar with the matter that they

are still working on an ad hoc basis, if there are emergencies, the types of emergencies, like a newborn baby needing a passport so they can leave

the country.

We also saw, of course, in Saudi and Kuwait, the U.S. Embassies being targeted. Both of those are shut as well. And in Saudi Arabia, we did see

near Al-Kharj, which is an area where there is a significant military base, Saudi military base, but we know that there have been U.S. military

aircraft based there in the past that also intercepted a couple of missiles.

So, the incoming is still continuing. At this point, we are also hearing reassurances from UAE officials, from other officials around the region,

that there are enough interceptors, there is enough armaments, there is enough protection to continue to carry on at this state, because, of

course, the longer that this conflict lasts the longer that there are missiles and drones coming into these Gulf nations.

There will be more questions about how long the defense is sustainable, Becky.

ANDERSON: Paula, thank you. You're watching CNN. I'm Becky Anderson here in Abu Dhabi in our Middle East programming headquarters. Next up new fears

over energy security as a fire breaks out at a key oil facility here in the UAE.

More on that is coming up. We've got the bell on Wall Street for you. We are just moments away.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:30:00]

ANDERSON: All right, well, the stock market in New York opened a couple of minutes ago. So, let's see how they are settling into this trading day,

Wednesday, fifth day of this war on Iran. First couple of days these markets were all over the place, and look at what we've got today.

All three of those major markets up by about a third of 1 percent, you know, its investors are taking stock of that spike. In oil prices of

course, it does appear to be some relief. Why is that? Well, let's find out. I've got Eleni Giokos standing by.

ELENI GIOKOS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yeah.

ANDERSON: And you've been speaking to people in the markets about why it is that we are seeing, you know, a relatively calm and positive start to the

trading day today? Who would have thought?

GIOKOS: I mean, who would I actually really shocked with what I'm seeing behind you there. And frankly, it's really not based in fundamentals,

because what we're seeing is really not squaring up with the supply constraints we're seeing, Strait of Hormuz disrupted.

I'm speaking to Ana saying there's a trickle. There are maybe one or two vessels that are able to get through. We've seen attacks. This is

perception based. We had Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent speaking just a short time ago, saying they've got mitigation plans in place to try and

alleviate some of the pressure we heard from President Trump.

They're going to be stepping in on the wall time insurance premiums that have sky rocketed. They say that, if necessary, they're going to get naval

escorts for the vessels. But the experts that I'm talking to are saying that maybe that will increase some volume, but it's not going to replace

the volume.

I spoke to Ian Bremmer, the President of Eurasia Group, a short time ago. Listen to what he said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT OF EURASIA GROUP: Well, I mean, the first point is, this is an effort to mitigate on the fly. I mean, all of us that have been

expecting strikes on Iran now for months, as the Americans were putting their military assets in the region, knew that the Straits of Hormuz were

going to be threatened.

So why wouldn't the Trump Administration have come up with this immediately as the strikes were being made? It's not like they couldn't figure that

out. So, first, it's a reaction. It's not a proactive strategy. And secondly, it's not going to bring all of those volumes back. It will be a

percentage.

Is it half? Is it a quarter? Don't know. It's very welcome as a decision, but it's not a cure all.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

GIOKOS: Big amount of skepticism right now. And here's the reality. There are no details about implementation.

ANDERSON: Yeah.

GIOKOS: And what it's going to ultimately mean logistically. But you know, we've been talking about all the energy infrastructure that has been struck

here.

[09:35:00]

And we've really going to mention this again, the LNG facility in Qatar. And Qatar also announcing force majeure across the board in terms of gas

production and all of those products. It's partly because of the Strait of Hormuz. It's partly because of the attacks.

So, are we going to wake up in a few days and really take stock of the capacity out of the industry and also volume movement? Meanwhile, all the

Asian countries really worried about what it's going to ultimately mean for them down the line, because this is going to have an inflationary.

ANDERSON: So, the question is a knee jerk relief reaction, as it were.

GIOKOS: Yeah.

ANDERSON: Or reaction of relief by investors buying into these U.S. stock markets today, when actually the reality suggests something quite

different. It's an interesting move by the Trump Administration.

GIOKOS: Yeah.

ANDERSON: Scott Bessent or Howard Lutnick, normally encouraged to talk to one of the business channels just for the markets open lo and behold, the

markets take off.

GIOKOS: Great. Yeah.

ANDERSON: Interesting -- Thank you. Well, as Eleni was saying, Qatar announcing it is halting production of liquefied natural gas. LNG, after

reporting attacks on its infrastructure. Let's get more then on the concerns facing these energy markets with Robin Mills, who's the CEO of the

Dubai based consultancy firm Qamar Energy.

It's good to have you. This is an important story, and we've just been discussing the fundamentals, not really reflecting, certainly what we're

seeing as far as the markets are concerned today. President Donald Trump says the U.S. Navy could escort tankers, promising to quote, ensure the

free flow of energy to the world, and has ordered political risk insurance support to keep trade flowing.

What do you make of these offers of support at this point? You know, is this going to calm the market, or does the risk of drones and other

ballistic missiles really make this a sort of fundamentally different kind of crisis, Robin?

ROBIN MILLS, CEO OF QAMAR ENERGY: Yes, thanks, Becky. Well, look, this is huge news. It's incredibly important for the global economy, the stoppage

of the flow of oil and also liquefied natural gas out of the Gulf. And you know, we see the Qataris have closed down their LNG facilities, partly

because of this, this attacks, which don't seem to have caused serious damage.

But the point is, they would have had to close down anyway, because if they can't get the LNG out and their storage tanks fill up pretty quickly, then

obviously at that point, they have to stop producing. And the same will apply to oil. And Iraq has already cut back on oil production for the same

reason.

So, getting tank is moving in and out of the Gulf again, safely in the pretty near future is absolutely critical. This initiative of Donald

Trump's OK, some details to be worked out, but something like this is needed to tackle the security issue of these vessels, but also, critically

the insurance issue.

ANDERSON: And let's talk about that, staying with the strait, you write, and I quote here, a complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz for longer

than a couple of weeks is unlikely. The U.S. Navy and allies would clear mines, sink the remaining Iranian warships, and eliminate missile

launchers.

All of which, by the way, they have told us they will do within a week of the beginning of this, but drones, you say, could keep up a cheap campaign

indefinitely and be almost impossible to stop. What does that actually mean in practical terms for oil prices, for insurance markets and the broader

Gulf economies?

Are we talking about temporary volatility here or a structural shift in the way that global energy and trade flows operate and the perception of this

part of the world?

MILLS: Yeah, well, you know, we've seen over the past couple of years, the Houthi forces in Yemen harassing shipping in the Southern Red Sea and

almost closing it to a lot of shipping through these pretty simple attacks, without actually having to damage or sink many ships.

So, I can't see two phases here. The first critical phase in which some kind of military action, as you allude to gets the strait reopened and gets

shipping moving again, and including an insurance solution, some kind of emergency insurance, but indeed, then potentially a more chronic phase of

attacks by drones on ships that cause a continuing level of danger, cause ships to be very cautious about going in, restrict traffic, don't stop it

entirely, but do cut it back.

And that could go on a long time until there's some kind of a political solution to this conflict.

ANDERSON: Insurance rates already elevated, reportedly up 50 percent for voyages into the Gulf. It's not clear how long this can go on. How prepared

are shipping companies and insurers for what could be repeated drone attacks over a period, a long period, or disruptions in the Gulf.

[09:40:00]

MILLS: Well, I think at the moment, the situation is OK. People are looking at their insurance. All the current policies are been invalidated,

obviously. So, there needs to be some kind of emergency insurance, and that might involve some kind of U.S., perhaps a U.S. back stop, for reinsurance,

some kind of solution like that, that is essential.

After that, if we go into kind of chronic phase of lower-level insecurity, insurance rates will be elevated, but not to the same extent. But then we

have to consider the safety of the mariners. There's, I think, one sailor been killed already, an attack on a tanker. There's another attack on a

container vessel just a few hours back.

So, I don't think the major shipping lines want to put their people in in serious danger, either.

ANDERSON: Always good to have you, Robin, thank you for joining us. Critical times important to get your insight and your analysis. Thank you.

Well ahead on "Connect the World", CNN has learned about a CIA strategy that would unleash more forces on Iran.

I'll talk to the head of the global Kurdish initiative for peace, after the short break.

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ANDERSON: And you're watching "Connect the World" with me Becky Anderson from our Middle East programming headquarters here in Abu Dhabi, just

before quarter to seven in the evening. Let's return to what we are learning about CIA strategy in Iran. Sources familiar with the agency's

plan say that it's working to arm Kurdish forces with the aim of sparking an uprising in Iran.

Now Iranian Kurdish opposition forces are expected to take part in what would be a ground operation in Western Iran in the coming days. That's

according to a Senior Iranian Kurdish official. My next guest writes quote, time after time, Kurds were treated as a tool in Iraq, then left to pay the

price.

In Syria, they bled for a deal that empowered a former al Qaeda figure recognized independent Kurdistan with protection if Kurdish help is needed,

I want to bring in Yerevan Saeed, Director of the Global Kurdish Initiative for Peace at American University. Joins us now from Bristow, Virginia.

And before we do A deep dive on what we believe might happen next, can you expand on that point there? Your point about the history between the Kurds

and, indeed, the Americans, and this feeling of, frankly, being hung out to dry.

YEREVAN SAEED, DIRECTOR OF THE GLOBAL KURDISH INITIATIVE FOR PEACE AT AMERICAN UNIVERSITY: Sure, the Kurdish American relationship,

unfortunately, has been good, but also it has the same loss of sent back as started from 1975 when the Kurds revolution collapses, because the U.S.

obviously withdraw.

It is support for the Kurds. And in 1991 the same thing happened.

[09:45:00]

And coming forward in 2017, the Kurdistan region of Iraq held an independent referendum, even though it was not binding for it was for

independence. You know, the U.S. obviously gave green light to the Iraqi government and also the pro-Iranian militia forces to advance against the

Kurdish forces in -- and other areas in Iraq, which led to the loss of over 40 percent of the Kurdish territories in Iraq.

Also in Syria, the same thing happened in 2019, it allowed to the --

ANDERSON: Right.

SAEED: U.S. Administration now Turkey and also Turkish backed forces to obviously make encouraging into the Kurdish held territories in North

Eastern, North Syria and --

ANDERSON: So --

SAEED: Most recently, just, you know, weeks ago, you know, the U.S. declared that the Kurdish, you know, partnership ship has expired. That's

why it's really important for the Kurds to take this into consideration.

ANDERSON: Yeah. So, I think that's important. And, you know, a healthy sense of skepticism, clearly something that the Kurdish population will

have when it has any sort of communication with the Americans. And with that context in mind then, as we report that the U.S. is courting Iranian

and Iraqi Kurdish groups to fight to help unarmed Iranians rise up against this regime as part of the kind of wider action on Iran.

What is your understanding of those groups willingness to do so, and if so, what would those operations look like, do you believe?

SAEED: The Kurdish groupies of Iran have been mobilizing, also organizing for the last few months, and just about 10 days ago, they declared some

sort of a coalition fort that brought together five Kurdish parties that are, you know, popular in Iranian Kurdistan, but you know that the Kurdish

insurgency group is opposition group is certainly already to make, you know, ground incursion into Iran.

But the question is, what kind of commitment the White House, or the U.S., the Trump Administration, is going to give to Kurds.

ANDERSON: Right.

SAEED: Because this is going to have serious implications, not just for the Kurds in Iran, but also the Kurds in -- Kurdistan, the Iraqi Kurdistan, has

been under attack by Iran, also pro-Iranian militias for the last several years. Just in the last three days, there has been over 30 attackers on the

Iraqi Kurdistan.

So, unless there will be serious commitment and guarantees, I don't see how the Kurdish political parties or opposition group is are going to commit

and also try to stir some sort of a prize in in Iranian Kurdistan.

ANDERSON: So, a little earlier on today, a regional analyst told me that this could be extremely dangerous, destabilizing this region into what he

described as an ethnic separatist quagmire that runs the risk of fragmenting Iran. Do you agree? And just how risky is this bid, then to

your mind very briefly?

SAEED: It is a place key for the Kurds, certainly, because it could give justification to the Iranian regime to come back. They have, you know, 1

million strong men army. They could come back and also crack down on the Kurds. But I do disagree with the idea of separatism, because the Kurds in

Iran have asked it for some sort of federalism or autonomy.

It is not about the pan Kurdish, you know, statehood in the Middle East. But again, I want to make clear what's really important for the Kurds,

whether this is a tactical move by Washington to reduce pressure on the GCC countries and Israel, or is it going to be strategic, and it comes with

commitment with the Kurds?

Because what's important, what happens after the Kurds make the uprising take control of the Kurdish dominated area in Iran.

ANDERSON: It's good to have you. This is an important element to this wider story. And getting your thoughts very important to us as we continue to

cover the roiling region, as it were. I'm Becky Anderson in Abu Dhabi. More "Connect the World" after this short break. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:50:00]

ANDERSON: Well, let's take a look at the sort of reaction that we are seeing to what is our Breaking News, and has been over the past five days

is the U.S.-Israel coordinated strikes on Iran. The U.S. Senate will vote as soon as today on a war powers resolution that requires President Donald

Trump to gain congressional approval to continue his military campaign in Iran.

The House is expected to vote on a similar measure on Thursday. Now, Republican lawmakers have shown broad support of President Donald Trump's

unilateral decision to launch a major attack on Iran. Many Democrats believe he has exceeded the boundaries of executive authority and

questioned the Trump Administration's long-term strategy for Iran.

And in Europe, while there is an urgent move for European nations to get their citizens evacuated from the Middle East. French President Emmanuel

Macron has sent flights to bring French citizens home, while the UK's Prime Minister is deploying helicopters and warships after an attack on its

military base in Cyprus.

Meanwhile, inside Iran, senior Iranian officials have been meeting virtually to select a new Supreme Leader after the initial U.S.-Israel

strikes killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his son is among a small handful of clerics tipped as likely successes, but Israel is warning that any new

leader would be a target for elimination. CNN's Isobel Yeung, takes a closer look.

ISOBEL YEUNG, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Now that Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei has been killed in U.S.-Israeli air strikes, Iran's clerical

regime is quickly deciding who is going to succeed him. This is obviously a very big role. It's the most powerful position in the Islamic Republic, and

one that Khamenei has occupied for nearly four decades, ruling over Iran with a brutal iron fist.

Whoever is appointed matters because it's going to answer one key question, is this a regime that's going to double down on Khamenei's repressive

policies, or will it take the chance to recalibrate? These are the top contenders for the position. First up, we have Mojtaba Khamenei.

He's 56, years old. He's the second son of Khamenei, and has strong links with the Revolutionary Guards as well as the besieged military forces,

which is important if he wants to continue ruling in the same vein as his father had been. He's been branded as the front runner, but father to son,

succession goes against the ideals of the regime which overthrew a hereditary monarchy in 1979.

We also have Alireza Arafi, a confidant of Khamenei. He was appointed to senior and strategically very sensitive positions and is part of the

clerical establishment. He's also part of the three-member Leadership Council which is currently running Iran. He's apparently very tech savvy,

fluent in English and Arabic, and is generally seen as more of a moderate, but he's not known as a political heavyweight, and doesn't have close ties

the security establishment.

Then you have conservative clerics like Mohammad Mahdi Mirbagheri or Hashem Hosseini Bushehri, less known publicly, but reportedly more close to

conservative elements, or the Former Head of the Judiciary, Sadeq Larijani, whose brother Ali is currently the powerful National Security head.

Outside of those runners, the picture gets a little bit more complicated with the likes of Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of the founder of the

Islamic Republic, who has traditionally been seen as closer to reformist factions of Iranian politics, but obviously also carries religious and

revolutionary legitimacy.

His younger brother Ali has also been making headlines recently, leading some analysts to suggest that he's positioning himself. And finally,

there's the potential of the system to pivot and go for someone like Hassan Rouhani, the Former President who hails from more moderate camps of Iranian

politics but is still. Very close to elements of the security establishment to take the realms.

[09:55:00]

Whoever is appointed as the next supreme leader is going to need the backing of the IRGC, or at least portions of it, and they'll need to act

quickly to consolidate power amongst the various elected and non-elected officials that have been ruling the country so far.

On top of that, their appointment could be short lived, as this person could be a clear target for Israel and the U.S. U.S. President Donald Trump

has weighed in to speculation, saying that several of the people his government had viewed as potential leaders are now dead.

He said, I guess the worst case would be that we do this and somebody takes over who's as bad as the previous person. He says, we don't want that to

happen. Isobel Yeung, CNN, London.

ANDERSON: All right, so much more on what is next for Iran's regime coming up in our second hour of this show, right after this short break. That's

it, though for the first hour of "Connect the World". Stay with CNN.

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