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CNN Team in Tehran Reports Several Waves of Strikes Overnight; Trump Vows to Keep Strait of Hormuz Open for Oil Shipments; Trump Gives Conflicting Answers on How Long War Will Last; Israel-Lebanon Border Communities Rattled by Airstrikes; Iranians in Country and Across Diaspora Grapple with War; CENTCOM Says U.S. Strikes Hit Iranian Missile Launchers. Aired 9-10a ET
Aired March 10, 2026 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST, CONNECT THE WORLD: And this is the scene in the U.S. capital where top U.S. officials say today is the most intense day of
U.S. strikes on Iran yet and claim that the U.S. is prevailing. It is 09:00 a.m. and Washington, Tuesday March the 10th.
It is 05:00 p.m. here in Abu Dhabi in the UAE. From our Middle East programming headquarters, I'm Becky Anderson. You're watching "Connect the
World". U.S. Defense Secretary says day 11 of the U.S.-Israeli war in Iran will be the most intense day so far.
Pete Hegseth speaking at a pentagon briefing last hour, trying to downplay concerns over a potentially long, drawn out war. Have a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PETE HEGSETH, U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY: This is not endless nation building under those types of quagmires we saw under Bush or Obama, it's not even
close. Instead, we're winning decisively with brutal efficiency, total air dominance and an unbreakable will to accomplish the president's objectives
on our timeline.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Well, the U.S. Joint Chiefs Chairman also speaking at that press conference, laying out the main U.S. objectives.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GENERAL DAN CAINE, CHAIRMAN OF U.S. JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF: The joint force remains focused on three military objectives, continue to destroy Iranian
ballistic missiles and drone capability in order to prevent attacks on the U.S. and others throughout the region, and this means attacking launch
sites, command and control nodes, stockpiles, before they can threaten our personnel, our facilities and our partners.
Second, we continue to strike the Iranian navy and their capabilities in order to do things like sustain movement through the Straits of Hormuz. And
third, we continue to start working on and going deeper into Iran's military and industrial base in order to prevent the regime from being able
to attack Americans, our interests and our partners for years to come and project power outside their borders.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Well, this coming after another night and day of heavy bombardment over Tehran. Rescue is trying to save people from the rubble of
a destroyed building. Iran's U.N. Ambassador says more than 1300 civilians have been killed since this war began.
The Pentagon releasing this video of U.S. attacks on Iranian missile launches, Iran firing back and still targeting Gulf neighbors. Bahrain's
Interior Ministry says one person was killed when an Iranian drone struck a residential building in Manama. Well, the war sparking intense concern over
the world's oil suppliers.
Iran threatens to keep blocking commercial oil shipping in the Strait of Hormuz today. A troubling new warning from the world's largest oil
exporter, if disruptions continue, wouldn't do a deep dive into that part of the story in just a few minutes. Let's have a look at how the futures
markets are doing ahead of the stock market in New York, which opens about 30 minutes from now.
And this is the story on the futures markets pointing lower oil prices as well as the stock market experiencing quite some wild swings. On Monday
after U.S. President Donald Trump gave conflicting comments on just how long this war will last.
[09:05:00]
More on that later. A CNN team in Tehran reporting heavy aerial bombardment overnight into Tuesday, they tell us the impacts were more severe than in
previous days. And we should mention, CNN operates in Iran with the permission of the Iranian government, as required under local regulations
there, but maintains full editorial control over what it reports.
My colleague, Fred Pleitgen is there, and he describes what he heard and saw.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It was a very kinetic night here in the Iranian capital, Tehran. We ourselves witnessed
several waves of what appeared to be very heavy air strikes in the building that we're in right now and that we're staying in was shaken on several
occasions from the sheer force of the impact.
Now, from our vantage point, it appeared as though, especially targets in the east of Tehran were being attacked also possibly around Mehrabad
Airport, which is in the west of Tehran, and is actually an area that has been attacked in the past as well. All this is the air strikes conducted
mostly by the U.S. and Israel continue, not just here in Tehran, but of course, throughout this entire country.
Meanwhile, the political standoff also continues as well. President Trump, of course, saying that he vows to keep the Strait of Hormuz open for oil
shipments into the world's markets, whereas the Iranians are warning that they are the ones who control the Strait of Hormuz.
A source close to the Iranian government telling me that the Iranians are the ones who control the taps of the world's oil supply. They say that Iran
is even thinking of imposing duties on ships carrying oil that are affiliated with countries friendly to the United States.
At the same time, the Iranians are saying, also at this point in time, they see no sense in negotiations with the United States and are preparing for
what could be a long war. Fred Pleitgen, CNN, Tehran.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ANDERSON: Well, I want to bring in a couple of colleagues of mine now. CNN's Nick Paton Walsh is in Tel Aviv. Stephen Collinson is in Washington.
And to both of you, thank you. Nick, let me start with you in the region. We've just heard from the Defense Secretary, Pete Hegseth last hour saying
that Iran's leadership, and I quote him here, are desperate and scrambling.
You've been covering this conflict in Iran's you know, strikes closely. What do you make of that assessment?
NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: I mean, obviously, after the intense bombardment of the last 10 days, the death of
their supreme leader, the delay that has taken to appoint his son as successor, the relative public silence that we've heard from Mojtaba
Khamenei, there's been a lot of damage to Iran's theocracy, the regime there has that resulted in them being dysfunctional.
You might say, some of the drone strikes we've seen at the same time as Foreign Minister of Iran has been, sorry, the President of Iran has been
reaching out to suggest they apologize to those same countries they were targeting in the same breath. That might be some element of
dysfunctionality.
But ultimately, what we heard from Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth was again, a lot of bravado, a lot of clarity in terms of the small goals of
the mission. Now, remember, at the beginning, we heard that missiles were targets, the navy were targets, and the nuclear weapons capability of Iran
diminishes it already was.
Were the key three goals here. He talked about how President Trump would ultimately define what victory looks like. But there was one important
slight distinction we heard from the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan Caine. He talked about the third point being degrading Iran's military and
industrial complex, their ability to make missiles and drones.
That may perhaps be more tethered to the reality of what the Pentagon is hitting day by day, and may reflect a widening scope here, potentially and
what we've been seeing over the past days. And indeed, the day ahead, which Hegseth said would be the worst yet for Iranians, a reminder over 1200
Iranians killed by these U.S. and Israeli strikes so far, Becky.
ANDERSON: I'm interested in what's new and different out of this. Stephen, what do we hear from Hegseth a short time ago, when compared with what
President Trump said last night about how long this war might go on?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: On Iran, you called it an excursion. You said it would be over soon. Are you thinking this week it will be over?
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: No --
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Are you talking about days?
TRUMP: I think so.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: OK, and with respect --
TRUMP: Very soon.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Stephen.
STEPHEN COLLINSON, CNN POLITICS SENIOR REPORTER: This will go on as long as the military objectives need to be pursued. So, I think what you have is a
real contrast between the methodical, planned military operation here, which is clearly working on plans that have been refined for many years in
the United States and Israel and the chaotic, confusing, contradictory political messaging.
Clearly, the president and the White House are feeling the heat from those high oil prices, plunging stock markets, the political impact back in the
United States.
[09:10:00]
And a feeling in the markets that this could go on for a very long time, and of course, that has not just immediate impacts, the halt to production
of oil and liquid natural gas and the export that can have long term impacts on the economy in a midterm election year in the United States.
So, I think one of President Trump's big problems often is that he speaks too much. He contradicts himself. He thinks out loud. He oddly commentates
on his own actions. So that was a relatively disciplined performance from Hegseth and Caine that you saw there, at least by Hegseth standards.
And it contrasts with the, I think, skittishness about how this might last from the present. Clearly, they want to send a message that this is not
forever. The military wants more time to pursue its targets that Nick was talking about.
ANDERSON: We're going to do more on what we heard just past hour from Pete Hegseth and the Joint Chiefs Chairman a little later this hour. Thank you
both. Nick, I just want to keep you on for the moment, because you've been reporting from Northern Israel over the last few days. Tell us what you
have seen there.
WALSH: Yeah, in the last hours, Israel has explained a bit more some of its actions and potentially policy for its second major onslaught against
Hezbollah in the past 18 months or so, overnight, we've heard of more targeted raids. That is suggest that we've gone from two specific targets
hit since the beginning of this new phase of the conflict to now multiple in Southern Lebanon, air strikes again targeting certain areas.
Look, when you're up there, it is quite relentless. There are clearly not adequate Israeli forces that we could see in place for a major ground
invasion, and instead these targeted raids coming into play, but still noisy and volatile, escalating conflict. Here's what we saw.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WALSH (voice-over): As the war fast spills over and twists. Here Hezbollah rockets meet Israeli air defense. The fight thickening on the northern
border Sunday night.
WALSH: I've been hearing that for about an hour now. Probably air strikes over there in Southern Lebanon.
WALSH (voice-over): Blasts through the dark. With daylight it persisted, joined by Apache attack helicopters throwing defensive flares, as Israel
said it had overnight, led its second targeted raid on the Iranian ally here. Small arms fire close by. Israel has demanded much of Southern
Lebanon empty out, but there were no open signs they were yet here in number enough for a full invasion, instead picking off targets.
The goal to disarm Hezbollah forever, not yet in reach their rockets constant.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Right over our head.
WALSH (voice-over): The house where we took cover had 28 alerts last night.
WALSH: How long is it like bout 10 seconds?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No, immediate. You need to hear the --
WALSH: Yeah.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: -- I heard the siren, but it's the moment that you need to be inside shelter.
WALSH: Don't you get tired of this?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We get tired. We don't have any choice.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yeah.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It's our home.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WALSH (on camera): Now 488 Lebanese have died, been killed in this latest assault. And Israel today reminding that south of the Litani River in
Southern Lebanon that that is an evacuation area. It seems geographically to be the same that they're -- telling people to get out of and the same in
Southern Beirut, around the Dahieh suburbs, a roughly similar area.
You may interpret some of the words and come with a map from the Israel Defense Forces as suggesting a slightly larger, but Israel clearly
debating, it seems, weighing the extent of its ground moves, going with targeted raids so far, but the ferocity of air strikes quite extraordinary.
ANDERSON: It's good to have you, Nick. Thank you for your reporting. Stephen, always a pleasure. Thank you. Up next, a closer look at our
Iranians is fairing after a heavy bombardment last night. I want to speak with a leading expert on Iran, right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:15:00]
ANDERSON: All right, as we cover the many layers of the war with Iran from the battlefield the global economic fallout, I do want to take a moment to
reflect on the toll being taken on Iranians inside the country and across the global diaspora. My next guest, Narges Bajoghli is a writer, scholar
and preeminent expert on the IRGC.
She recently penned a piece about Iranians, both inside and outside the country, feeling fractured between difficult, mixed emotions. She described
it as, quote, anguished double consciousness, people who despise the ruling establishment in Iran, who have lost family members to its prisons, who
have spent decades dreaming for its end, but who cannot bring themselves to celebrate the deaths of Iranian children.
Narges joins me now. She's the Assistant Professor of Middle East Studies at Johns Hopkins University, and the author of many books, including the
one on the IRGC "Iran Reframed" Anxieties of Power in the Islamic Republic. Always good to get you on, is your insights really important to us.
And in your very poignant piece, you talk about your cousin in Tehran who you are having a hard time reaching, and your close friend who escaped to
the countryside. Just first, give us a sense of what you are hearing from inside Iran right now, after what our team described as a very heavy night
of bombardment.
And U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth now saying the most intense strikes are coming today.
NARGES BAJOGHLI, MIDDLE EAST STUDIES PROFESSOR AT JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY: So last night, my family and friends and Tehran got in touch with me and
sent me sounds of what they were hearing outside of their windows. It was very heavy bombardment today apparently, more is coming, as you said.
Iranian are extremely terrified and exhausted of most of this bombardment, heavy bombardment is happening at night so they can't really sleep, and its
very heavy bombs. It's shaking structures all around them. And all of this is coming on the heels of that the bombing of the oil depots across Tehran,
which has resulted in.
The skies of Tehran turning black, and acid rain falling. And so, it's, you know, a mass sort of poisoning event followed by all of these different
kinds of heavy bombardments. So, people are quite both exhausted, terrified, but at the same time also increasingly becoming aware that this
is a war on Iran and on Iranians.
So, it's also driving a lot of anger and a desire to really hold down the defense of the country for many people.
ANDERSON: And you describe this as this sort of anguished double consciousness, which I thought was a really, sort of well penned phrase.
[09:20:00]
I want to unpack the many mixed emotions the Iranian diaspora, of course, is feeling watching this unfold from apart, and you have called that a
reckoning that is tearing the community apart, leading people to question their very identity. Can you just explain that for us?
BAJOGHLI: Sure. So, this war is coming on the heels of a nationwide uprising that happened in late December and early January. And it then upon
those uprisings that were happening, the Mossad Persian language Twitter account asked for people to stay in the streets and keep going, and that
agents were on the ground with them.
And the former or the Crown Prince of Iran, of the Former Shah, also said on January 8th and 9th for people to take over city centers. And those were
the days that resulted in huge massacres by the state of the protesters that were in the streets. And that left a very large wound for Iranians to
have the state turn the guns on them in that fashion.
And that also included a lot of Iranian diasporas who are quite horrified at what they saw. This also, then, within the broader context, is happening
over about a little bit over -- eight years of a satellite television station called Iran International, who's beaming into Iran and across the
diaspora with a very pro-Pahlavi bent.
So, the diaspora, which for many, many, many decades, was very diverse, and how it thought about what it wanted for the future of Iran, has sort of
become extremely polarized in the past year and a half to two years, to being either your pro-Pahlavi and wanting some kind of intervention in
Iran.
Or you don't like the governing establishment and you don't know what any other options sort of remain for you and those inside of Iran. And so, this
form of real polarization that is happening in Iranian society, both inside the country and outside of the country is leaning towards a lot of
fractured relationships, a lot of division and real vitriol in the community.
ANDERSON: Yeah, and I'm hearing that by just speaking to friends who are Iranian as well. And it's really difficult. I want to get your analysis and
Iran's strategic thinking as well as someone who embedded with the IRGC for your research and writing. I remember talking to you about this when you
wrote the book.
You argue Iran is not going to surrender, that it is prepared for a war of attrition. Meanwhile, here's some of what we heard from U.S. President
Trump recently, and then let's chat about this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: We took a little excursion because we felt we had to do that to get rid of some evil. And I think you'll see it's going to be a short-term
excursion. We've already won in many ways, but we haven't won enough. We're achieving major strides toward completing our military objective.
And some people could say they're pretty well complete. We could call it a tremendous success right now as we leave here, I could call it, or we could
go further, and we're going to go further.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Well, the new supreme leader announced, who certainly seems to suggest, consolidates the power of the Revolutionary Guard. What is this
leave us?
BAJOGHLI: So, in all of my research in the Revolutionary Guard, I was looking at one of the biggest fractures in that organization was the
generational divide. There was the older generation who were many of them commanders at the time, who had experienced trench warfare in the 1980s
Iran-Iraq war.
And who really did not want to take the country in a position that it would be in continued warfare with the outside world, and sort of had a bit more
of a desire to push for different kinds of solutions. Many of those commanders have been assassinated now in these decapitation strikes that
have happened over the past many weeks and months.
And so now what I am seeing is that this younger generation of IRGC has now risen into the command structures of the organization. And they have very
close ties with this new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. This younger generation of the IRGC has fought on the ground in Iraq and Syria and has
gone in and out of Gaza and Lebanon for many years now.
They are the ones who have been sort of in charge of bleeding the Americans dry in Iraq and forcing them to leave. And so, we are now dealing with a
much harder and more hardened IRGC Commander class than we have been in the past. And I think that this is something that has not quite you know, been
understood in Washington.
[09:25:00]
This is a different generation of the IRGC. They are not deterred by this kind of language from Washington, and they have been fighting American
forces in the region for over a decade now in very close combat. And so, this is something that we have to really understand.
As President Trump is saying those threatening words to Iran, the IRGC is responding today very, very sort of in-line in a threatening language of
their own, very immediately after hearing that. So, I think that we are now dealing with a different kind of organization than we were even dealing
with two months ago.
ANDERSON: So, with that in mind, let's just get back to some of the sound that we just heard last hour. This is Pete Hegseth. This is a conflict that
is not a forever war, he said, nor a quagmire you have written, quote, the assumption that Iran's population will continue to greet its violent
dismemberment with gratitude rather than resistance, is the same assumption that has produced every catastrophic miscalculation of the past century.
How do you square the U.S. military's thinking with this reality then inside Iran. And I want to get your thoughts on another moment from the
Pentagon briefing where Pete Hegseth made some strong religious overtures. Just have a listen to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HEGSETH: Blessed be the Lord, my rock, who trains my hands for war and my fingers for battle. He is my loving God and my fortress, my stronghold and
my deliverer, my shield, in whom I take refuge. May the Lord grant unyielding strength and refuge to our warriors, unbreakable protection to
them in our homeland, and total victory over those who seek to harm them. And Amen. God bless our troops --
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Two things here, the Christian faith becoming an increasing part of the U.S. narrative in this war. Witness what we just heard last hour.
And I wonder what you make of that. And to the first point, given what you've said about this new generation of revolutionary guardsmen.
What do you make of what we've heard as sort of threats on them from this Pentagon briefing today?
BAJOGHLI: So, this revolutionary language that's coming from Pete Hegseth as well as Lindsey Graham as well as others within this administration and
followers of Trump is slightly reminiscent of what we heard a couple of decades ago in the lead up to the Iraq war, but now it's very much on
steroids.
And it's being back then in 2003 we didn't have social media like we do today. So, what is coming this sort of language of a new holy war, 21st
century crusade is being translated almost immediately into Persian and Arabic and pinging around the region. This is also one of the reasons in
which Ayatollah Ali Sistani, one of the grand Ayatollahs of the Shia world, who resides in Iraq, gave a fatwa two days ago to protect Iran.
This is turning into an extremely dangerous moment. And for Pete Hegseth and others who say that this is not another forever war. I don't think the
Americans want a forever war, but they are now dealing with a country four times the size of Iraq, with a population of 90 million that also has very
deep ties into many communities, especially Shia communities, but others across the region.
The more that this is going to be talked about as a religious war, as a Christian, and Judeo-Christian sort of crusade on the Middle East. The more
that this is going to inflame what is already a very combustible situation and context across the region.
ANDERSON: Narges, getting your analysis so important to us. Thank you so much. Get a chance to read Narges's book. It's a terrific read, so I'm
going to plug it here for you. Couldn't be more important that people are sort of informed, better informed on what is going on as we move through
what is, of course, the 11th day of this war.
Thank you. Right. I want to get us live to Wall Street. Before I do that, we're about to hear the bell ring on Wall Street. Let's bring up these
futures markets. This is, what is generally a good indication of how these markets will open. So, let's have a look at the U.S. futures market.
And they are mixed going into this trading session. Of course, comments by Donald Trump yesterday really providing a sort of real boost for these
markets. And so, the session closing on the high yesterday, we're not seeing that sort of behavior again today, a very mixed open as we see oil
prices, which have significantly dropped off from their sort of highs of around about 100 bucks down to the low 80s, just rising a little bit once
again.
[09:30:00]
Right. We're going to get the bell for you. The CEO of AT&T ringing the bell to mark 150th anniversary of the first ever phone call.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANDERSON: And welcome back. I'm Becky Anderson in Abu Dhabi. You're watching "Connect the World" from our Middle East programming headquarters.
These are your headlines this hour. And during a press briefing at the Pentagon, a short time ago, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said that
the U.S. will not relent in its war with Iran until, quote, the enemy is totally and decisively defeated.
And he added that the ultimate decision to end the war rests with President Donald Trump. Well, the CNN team in Tehran reports heavy aerial bombardment
overnight Monday into Tuesday. They tell us the impact of the air strikes caused the walls of buildings to shake.
The strike seemed to target the eastern part of Tehran, as well as the area close to Mehrabad, which is an airport which had already been targeted in
past days. Well, two men are being held without bail after IEDs were tossed near the home of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani during an anti-Islam
protest on Saturday.
Court documents show the suspects face several federal charges, including attempts to provide material support to ISIS and using a weapon of mass
destruction. A crowded field remains for a special election in Georgia today that is testing the power of President Donald Trump's endorsement.
Trump has backed former prosecutor Clay Fuller to replace Marjorie Taylor Greene for the seat. The vote comes as the Republicans have a razor thin
majority in Congress. Feedback to the region, oil prices down today, after U.S. President Donald Trump suggested the war in Iran could end soon.
The global benchmark sitting around 90 odd, $91 a year, 92 on the barrel right now, off its highs, of course, of nearly 120 in the Monday session,
but still much higher than prewar levels. Mr. Trump trying to somewhat brush off fears about the impact on prices for the United States.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: You have to keep the straits flowing. With all of that it affects other countries much more than it does the United States doesn't really
affect us.
[09:35:00]
We have so much oil. We have tremendous oil and gas much more than we need. We have Venezuela now as our new partner, great partner. We're in a very
good position, but very unfair to other parts of the world, like China as an example. I mean, we're doing this for the other parts of the world,
including countries like China. They get a lot of their oil through the straits.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Well, the president, referring to the Strait of Hormuz, of course, which some 20 percent of global oil supplies move through, but has
effectively come to a standstill to all intents and purposes now. The White House says U.S. military will begin escorting ships through the waterway if
needed, though, no detail on that provided by the Joint Chiefs Chairman at the briefing earlier today.
Saudi Arabia's Aramco, the world's top oil exporter is warning of catastrophic consequences, and I quote them there should disruptions
continue. Well, my next guest is Julien Mathonniere, who is an Energy Markets Economist for Energy Intelligence. Thank you for joining us.
We heard Donald Trump. They say that the U.S. won't be impacted that much by the ongoing disruption. Clearly, some domestic political messaging,
their gas prices, of course, hitting an 18-month high there today. And so, I just wonder, in the first instance, before we sort of, you know, take a
kind of wider global picture, what is the reality for U.S. consumers at this point?
JULIEN MATHONNIERE, ENERGY MARKETS ECONOMIST FOR ENERGY INTELLIGENCE: Well, I think, Becky, since yesterday, we know where the pain point is. I mean,
President Trump talked down this market to help relief the pressure, and if you excuse the little dancing and the kid's music after Trump's speech,
somehow, it seems it has worked.
But we also now, that at more than $100 per barrels U.S. gasoline at the pump is getting close to $4 perhaps $5 per gallon. And this is a very
sensitive issue. This is the pain point, I think, for the U.S. Hence, you know, Donald Trump's attempt to relief pressure on this market.
ANDERSON: Yeah, because Mr. Trump said that the war was close to complete, only to turn around on social media and threaten to hit Iran 20 times
harder if it does anything to stop the flow of oil, if the U.S. and Israel continue to hammer Iran. Clearly, these supply risks are still present.
And I think many of us watching these markets recover as it were, with your price slipping back yesterday on the back of Donald Trump's comments,
weren't surprised by the comments, but were somewhat surprised that traders had sort of taken them as given, when the sort of fundamentals basically
say something completely different.
And Aramco saying something completely different. Should this will not end anytime soon. And this oil not get moving, we are looking at a really
dismal picture at this point. Are we not?
MATHONNIERE: Yes, we are. I mean, the paper market, the derivative market has been prompted to react than the physical market. As you pointed out
last night, the price of Brent oil closed just short of $99 per barrel after strain close to 120. So, we know that if the current situation in the
Strait of Hormuz lasts another week, perhaps more than oil will return to $120 per barrel perhaps even more.
Should the conflict subside, we would see the fair value of all getting closer to $70 per barrel. But that's the optimistic scenario. I mean 100, I
mean, right now, you said $90 per barrel. This is where Brent is. That's a lot. But if you care to consider that 20 or 25 percent of the world's oil
and gas supplies is currently stranded in the gold it's still well below the $139 per barrel reach in the spring of 2022 when Russia invaded
Ukraine.
So, you know, you've got random price duration, but they tell me that this market is still very much driven by headlines with President Trump's very
much in the driver's seat and maybe, you know, we should get back to the fundamentals to see what's happening. Right now, it looks dire, but the
physical market is still, you know, it's still got a little bit more time before it gets really bad, I would say, compared with the derivative
market, which is reacting, of course, very strongly.
ANDERSON: Yeah. Absolutely. And you're making some really good points. Let's talk about that kind of slightly longer-term picture here.
[09:40:00]
Look, I mean, there are so many variables at play. We can't say what's going to happen, you know, in the next 24 hours alone, in the next sort of,
you know, 24 days or months. But we are already seeing countries across Asia starting to ration supplies and announce austerity measures.
So, I guess the question that you will be asking yourself and clients will be asking you, as they look at their portfolios and wonder where these
Asian markets go next, is how much worse does it get for that region?
MATHONNIERE: It's -- you're absolutely correct on that, Becky. I mean, if the conflict lasts more than a month. I think the term global recession
will probably be too weak to describe a situation. Perhaps depression will be more appropriate. I mean U.S. consumers are already stretched.
We mentioned U.S. gasoline prices at the pump. Europe is probably where the macro consequences will be the hardest. And you mentioned Asia. Asia is in
a very bad spot. A lot of those refined products are going to Asian market. It seems Japan was pressing for the release of strategic petroleum
reserves, which tells you that the situation is probably very dire in Japan.
South Korea is probably in the same situation of a Southeast Asian country like perhaps Thailand, think Pakistan, Bangladesh. Asia, at the moment,
seems able to absorb the jump in all prices thanks to very low starting points with inflation broadly in control in most of Asia.
But Asia is very vulnerable to all price volatility. So, it's going to be a problem, and it relies heavily on imports like Europe, by the way. The only
exception may be Australia, Malaysia and Indonesia, because they produce also fuel.
ANDERSON: Yeah.
MATHONNIERE: But all of our economy already run deficits, and they're going to be in trouble if these costs.
ANDERSON: You can get a better "Connect the World" discussion here, as we join the dots around the world on this story. Let me finally just close out
by getting your analysis on this G7 announcement. They are ready to release reserves if needed. That, of course, includes a number of European
countries.
I mean, of course it would be significant, one estimate putting around a billion barrels onto the market, but even the sort of the statement helps
to calm things down. You know, we could do this if we want to, but I wonder if they are forced into releasing those reserves, how does that help CAC
prices?
And if so, for how long? What can countries do to absorb this shock? They are all talking and holding emergency meetings about energy security and
supply, energy prices and the economic picture going forward at this point.
MATHONNIERE: Well, you are perfectly correct, Becky, to say that it's about the announcements universal inventory release. They can be effective in the
short term, maybe not so much in the longer term, but I think the real initial value of a release is in the announcement itself, because oil
traders react immediately to such market signals, and they can therefore rapidly reprice their assets or borrows accordingly.
So, in an ideal world, you know, it works like OPEC. It likes the U.S. Fed FOMC announcement, if the signal is read as a credible commitment, then it
can be enough to deflate the price. And it's definitely not a structural fix, but it's more likely a psychological band ad, and it can perfectly,
last long enough if a conflict is short enough or not.
If I can just put a number to finish, the world has approximately 9.61 billion barrels of crude oil and petroleum in storage. So, you know, it's a
lot to cover a disruption for several months. I mean, the rest of the story is how those releases will be allocated in proportion to each country, or
will the U.S. take the bear the brunt of it?
It's still being discussed, but it can probably help at least in the short run.
ANDERSON: Fascinating. It's good to have you. Thank you very much indeed for joining us. You're watching "Connect the World" from our Middle East
programming headquarters here in Abu Dhabi in the UAE. I'm Becky Anderson. Time here is about a quarter to six in the evening.
Still to come, more members of the Iranian women's football team are now seeking asylum in Australia. What pushed them to this point, that is just
ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:45:00]
ANDERSON: Well, the Iranian Women's Football Team appears to be stuck in Australia today. The source tells CNN no country is willing to facilitate
their travel back home. Now this comes after two more members of the team, a player and a coach, sought asylum there at the end of the Asia Cup
tournament.
Five players have already been granted humanitarian visas by the Australian government. Immigration Minister Tony Burke is seen here with those
players. Well, all of this after the team stayed silent while their national anthem was played last week, just ahead of the match with South
Korea.
CNN's Christina Macfarlane explains how a single moment turned these athletes into targets of the Iranian regime.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CHRISTINA MACFARLANE, CNN SENIOR SPORTS CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): As Israeli and American bombs began falling on Iran a group of women were
thousands of miles away on a soccer pitch in Australia. On March 2, just days into the war, the Iranian women's national team had come to the Gold
Coast to play in the AFC women's Asian Cup, but what they did next was an act of sporting bravery that has made them targets at home and icons to
millions who oppose the regime watching from abroad.
Their tournament had barely begun when the team made a decision to stand in silence as their national anthem played. Back in Tehran, state TV's
reaction was swift. This host calling the move a pinnacle of dishonor, saying they were traitors during wartime who must be dealt with more
severely.
For some of the players, the drama off the pitch became too much to contain.
SARA DIDAR, IRANIAN WOMEN'S SOCCER PLAYER: Obviously, we're all concerned and sad at what's happened to Iran and our families and our loved ones, but
I really hope it's very good for our country to have good news ahead, and I hope that my country would be strongly alive.
MACFARLANE (voice-over): Three days later, something had changed. Before their second game in Australia, the players sang the anthem and saluted,
prompting fears of coercion by traveling Iranian minders.
MARZIYEH JAFARI, IRANIAN HEAD COACH: We have so much concern regarding our families and the people in Iran. Nobody loves war, but here we are coming
to play football professionally, and we do our best to concentrate on our football and match ahead.
MACFARLANE (voice-over): Eliminated from the tournament with their team bus surrounded by supporters chanting, save our girls, focus turned to whether
any of the players would look to defect. Earlier Monday, the answer came news that five women had fled the team hotel and are now a source says
seeking asylum under the protection of Australian police.
The story has now reached the very top with U.S. President Donald Trump posting about the players possible fate, congratulating the Australian
Prime Minister for doing a quote, very good job. Christina Macfarlane, CNN, London.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
[09:50:00]
ANDERSON: Well, the members from the Iranian Women's team who have sought asylum now stands at seven, six players and eight coach. Well, still on the
football pitch, the Iraqi Men's National Soccer team is only one match away from securing a spot in the FIFA World Cup.
If they qualify, it will be the team's first time in the tournament for four decades. But the war in Iran might put an end to this dream. The final
game should be played by the end of this month in Mexico. Getting a flight, however, is a challenging task for the players, as the air space, of
course, has been closed ever since the Iraq Football Association has been pledging FIFA to delay the playoff game.
FIFA is expected to make up its mind by the end of the week. More on that as we get it. Right, still to come. Why President Trump appears to be
changing his tune on the investigation into a deadly strike on that Iranian school at the beginning of this war.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANDERSON: U.S. President Trump now appears to be softening his stance on blaming Tehran for a strike in a girls' school there in Southern Iran. Now,
Tehran blames U.S. and new video evidence suggests the U.S. was targeting a nearby Revolutionary Guard base with a Tomahawk missile at the time of the
impact.
That strike happened February the 28th the first day of this war. At least 168 kids and 14 teachers were killed. We get the latest now from CNN's
Isobel Yeung.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ISOBEL YEUNG, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): This is the moment a missile slammed into an Iranian base in Minab, a city in Southern Iran just over a
week ago. In this freeze frame, you can see it clearly. Weapons experts tell CNN the wings and tail are consistent with a Tomahawk missile.
This new video is the clearest evidence yet that suggests it was the United States that struck an elementary school next to that Revolutionary Guards
base, killing scores of students. The U.S. has been firing those Tomahawk missiles at Iran from ships and submarines for more than a week now. Israel
doesn't use them. Experts tell us.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Mr. President, did the United States bomb a girls' elementary school in Southern Iran on the first day of the war killing
hundreds.
TRUMP: No, in my opinion, based on what I've seen, that was done by Iran.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Is that true, Mr. Hegseth? It was Iran who did that?
HEGSETH: We're certainly investigating.
YEUNG (voice-over): Iran also doesn't use Tomahawk missiles. And using satellite images, it's clear the school was struck nearly simultaneously
with strikes on an adjacent Revolutionary Guards base. That suggests precision targeting. CNN geo located this video.
We think this missile struck the military base, not the school. You can see that other buildings in the direction of the school had just been struck
when this was filmed. Isobel Yeung, CNN, London.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ANDERSON: Well, historic UNESCO sites in Esfahan were damaged after an Israeli air strike hit the nearby governor's building. My colleague Leila
Gharagozlou has more.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
LEILA GHARAGOZLOU, CNN PRODUCER: Images are emerging of one of Iran's most beautiful cities being struck by U.S. and Israeli bombardment. Now, one of
those sites, Chehel Sotoun has been damaged by U.S. and Israeli bombardment just meters away.
GHARAGOZLOU (voice-over): This video released by state media, shows windows shattered and lattice were broken.
[09:55:00]
Elsewhere in Esfahan, striking images show the Naqshe Jahan Square with a plume of smoke from an air strike.
GHARAGOZLOU: Highlighting the proximity of this war to Iran's historic and cultural landmarks.
GHARAGOZLOU (voice-over): And in Tehran, the Golestan Palace, the setting for many coronation ceremonies of Iranian kings, famous for its intricate
mirror work, now left in ruins, shattered by debris from shock waves of an airstrike.
GHARAGOZLOU: Images show extensive damage to what UNESCO calls a masterpiece of the Qajar era. The U.N.'s World Heritage arm has put out a
statement expressing concern and a reminder cultural property is protected under international law.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ANDERSON: Leila's content will be available on CNN Digital. I'll post that and the most insightful interviews that I conduct throughout the day on
"Connect the World's" web page as well as my social channels. So, if you're not watching all of the content across the hours, you can find me @beckycnn
and on Instagram and X.
And I also want to point out this piece from my colleagues Phil Mattingly and Zachary Cohen, they explain, quote, the grim choice facing the Trump
Administration, bottom line until the U.S. navy can guarantee that tankers won't become floating pyres. The global economy remains held hostage by a
21-mile-wide strip of water.
I'm going to be linking to this kind of strong CNN reporting on those social pages too. And stay with us, because that is the first hour down of
"Connect the World". We will be back, of course, at the top of this hour, in about four minutes time with more for you.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
END
