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Connect the World
Oil Prices Rise Again as Vessels Attacked Near Strait of Hormuz; Trump Warns Iran Against Laying Mines in Strait of Hormuz; Israel Hits Tehran Again in Second Wave of Strikes Tuesday; Iran Claims Israel & U.S. Are Deliberately Targeting Civilians; U.S. Tech Firms Are Now Potential Iranian Targets; White House Spurs Support for Iran War with Military Montages. Aired 9-10a ET
Aired March 11, 2026 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST, CONNECT THE WORLD: Well, a live look at the maritime traffic lining up near the Strait of Hormuz. This international
shipping choke point is more in focus than ever as Iran escalates attacks on ships. It is 05:00 p.m. here in Abu Dhabi in the UAE.
I'm Becky Anderson from our Middle East programming headquarters. You're watching "Connect the World". And the stock market in New York opens about
30 minutes from now. Futures indicating a lower open. Investors back on oil watchers, they look for any news on energy supplies from this Gulf region.
Well, we start with Iran launching what it calls its most intense operation of the now 12-day war with the U.S. and Israel. Iran continues firing at
both Israel and its Gulf neighbors, also stepping up its efforts to disrupt oil shipping in that Strait of Hormuz. The maritime authority there that
monitors the strait says at least three ships have been attacked in recent hours.
These images from the Royal Thai Navy show smoke billowing from a Thai flagged ship. And sources tell CNN Iran's military has begun laying mines
in the crucial waterway. Well, the U.S. saying it's been destroying mine- laying ships in the area, and releasing video of one such attack.
Well, that coming as U.S. and Israel hit targets in Tehran and Northern Iran. Our team on the ground in the north report major overnight air
strikes. OK, I want to start this out with Zachary Cohen and his reporting from Washington. These ships then attacked and reports of Iran laying mines
in the Strait of Hormuz.
Certainly, appears to be a clear attempt by Iran to destroy, continue to disrupt the global oil trade and other shipping. What is the view there in
Washington?
ZACHARY COHEN, CNN SENIOR U.S. SECURITY REPORTER: Yeah, Becky, maintaining control of the Strait of Hormuz is clearly a core part of Iran's defensive
strategy. And U.S. officials believe one of the ways they're trying to do that is to make it as dangerous as possible for oil tankers, for cargo
ships to pass through what we obviously know is a key strategic waterway.
And look, one of the ways Iran is doing that, according to U.S. intelligence assessments, is by laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz
itself. And Iran has an arsenal of roughly 5000 to 6000 mines that it can deploy. That's according to recent estimates. U.S. intelligence assessments
believe that they haven't deployed all of those mines yet, only laying down a dozen or so in the last few days.
But while U.S. Central Command has really touted the number of mine laying ships, it's destroyed, we're -- U.S. Intelligence believes that this Iran
still maintains significant capability in the ability to lay hundreds of mines if it chooses to do so. So, this is just one tool that Iran has at
its disposal to disrupt the flow of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
They also have onshore missile launch systems that have not been destroyed and appear to remain intact. They have fast boats that can carry missiles
and rockets as well. So, there's an asymmetric warfare element to all of this that's clearly gotten the attention of U.S. President Donald Trump, as
the market volatility is hard to ignore.
Donald Trump issuing a warning to the Iranians, saying that if there were any mines that have been laid in the Strait of Hormuz, they need to be
removed immediately, or threatening to impose severe consequences on the Iranians that they don't do so.
[09:05:00]
But look, I think the broader strategy here from the U.S. side remains unclear. How is the Trump Administration planning to break the logjam in
the Strait of Hormuz? We know that from Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, Dan Caine yesterday, he said that navy escort operations, which is one possible
option under discussion, have not begun at this stage, in part because the risk is too high to those vessels to essentially help move those oil
tankers through the strait.
So, as the days go by, Donald Trump facing more pressure to do something to open up the Strait of Hormuz. Oil executives, U.S. officials, all really
expressing urgency around this problem.
ANDERSON: Zachary, it's good to have you. Thank you. My next guest is the Editor in Chief of Lloyd's List Intelligence. And according to their
analysis, some tankers are moving through the Strait of Hormuz, but it is a shadow fleet operating with their GPS turned off.
The company writes that quote, the gamble by shadow fleet vessels to transit the strait may stem from an assessment they are less likely to be
targeted by Iran given that they serve its energy exports. Richard Meade joining me now live from London. Richard, thanks for joining us.
Just walk us through what you know about this shadow fleet? How many are operating and how much product they are moving and to where crucially?
RICHARD MEADE, EDITOR-IN-CHIEF OF LLOYD'S LIST INTELLIGENCE: Well, I think we should stress that even though there are some shadow fleet tankers
moving and there are some other ships moving, it is still a trickle of vessels moving through the Strait of Hormuz even the shadow fleet tankers
are wary of going through right now.
But about half of all the transits that we can see mainly done at night, mainly done with their AIS, their satellite signal turned off, is being
performed by these shadow fleet ships. And these shadow fleet older ships owned by opaque brass plate companies exclusively moving sanctioned Iranian
in this case, but also Russian crude oil.
And they're circumventing U.S. and Western sanctions by doing things like moving oil from ship to ship and taking it around the eyes of Western
governments who would otherwise try to stop it.
ANDERSON: Where is that oil moving to?
MEADE: China is the short answer. In this case, China is still the largest buyer of sanctioned Iranian and Russian crude, and these tankers are
loading of Kharg Island. They are moving the crude through the Strait of Hormuz, and ultimately, they are destined for either India or China, the
two main destinations for sanction crude.
ANDERSON: You just brought up Kharg Island, just reminders of that island strategic importance, where it is and why it matters?
MEADE: This is Iran's main loading facility for its oil output. Right now, it is loading occasional tankers. You know, as we've already heard, the
vast majority of shipping is come to a standstill through the Strait of Hormuz. So, what we're seeing is those ships that were already in the
Middle East Gulf at the point of the attack starting over a week ago, they're still there.
They've all now loaded, and the ones that are loading in Kharg Island. They're essentially now considering whether or not they move through. One
of the main considerations, certainly from the U.S. side, is whether, as your previous report pointed out, whether you get naval escorts coming to
the rescue of these other ships that are trying to move through.
I think there will be some reluctance, even if those escorts do come through, and even a basic calculation of escorts moving at best 5 to 10
ships in one go would probably max out the capabilities of moving ships to around just under 10 percent of normal flows. So even if you do get naval
escorts, you're not reopening the Strait of Hormuz fully.
ANDERSON: Yeah. Know, good point. I want our viewers to hear what Donald Trump reportedly told Fox News about ships held up in the Strait of Hormuz.
Have a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BRIAN KILMEADE, FOX NEWS HOST: I asked him, how do you get the prices down? I know how much you care about oil and gas. And he says, tell these tankers
to get themselves, get to it. We've wiped out most of their launchers. Here's exactly what he said, these ships should go through the Strait of
Hormuz and show some guts.
There's nothing to be afraid of. They have no navy, we sunk all their ships. He went on to say, he said, look, there's risk in the region.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[09:10:00]
ANDERSON: Get some guts, Trump says. Your thoughts on that, given that we have of course, seen three ships reportedly attacked today alone.
MEADE: Well precisely, I'm not entirely sure of the logic when even the navy is unprepared to offer escorts while it's too dangerous to go through.
The reality is, yes, the you know, the showy bits of the Iranian Navy may have been sunk, but mines drones, unmanned aerial vehicles, unmanned
seaborne vessels swarm attacks.
These are all very present dangers that are credible threats to shipping. And as we've seen just this morning, three ships hit. I don't think it's
taken guts. This isn't a question of lack of insurance. Insurance is there if you can pay enough. This isn't a question of guts. Seafarers are brave.
They keep trade moving through everything from pandemics downwards. This is about a credible security threat against ships moving through a very narrow
choke point of international trade. They're not going to be moving until the security situation clears up.
ANDERSON: I do just want to have you talk a little about disruptions, beyond just oil. Countries across the Gulf, of course, import some 80 to 90
percent of their food. 70 percent of that comes through the Strait of Hormuz, according to Chatham House. At this point, how big is the risk of
food shortage if this keeps up?
MEADE: I think it is getting larger by the day. I think the reality is that the focus is still on oil and even if we do see escorts, and even if we do
see security operations protecting ship movements through the strait, the immediate focus is going to be on oil price. Therefore, it's going to be
tankers.
They will be prioritized as the first thing is moving. So, you're not seeing any security being offered for the likes of bulk carriers carrying
grain, container ships carrying goods in boxes. So that is going to have a knock-on effect throughout the supply chain. I think the key difference,
though, is that there are going to be other routes into those regions, not just the ports.
The reason why oil is so important is A, because the volume, but B, because there is no alternative. While we're seeing Saudi switch some of its oil
into pipeline, it can't touch the volumes that they need to get out on ships of that size. There are other routes in for other commodities, not in
the volumes that you need.
But I think you're already seeing supply chain switching up on other commodities or other ship types. But it's the tankers that's going to be
crucial.
ANDERSON: It's good to have you very important insights as we continue to keep that Strait of Hormuz in focus as we continue to report on this now
12-day war. Thank you, sir. Let's get the view from Israel. CNN's Oren Liebermann is in Tel Aviv. Israel said Tuesday it launched a second wave of
strikes in one day on Tehran.
Any further details on Israel's latest targets and what its objectives or sort of strategy is today and through the rest of the week?
OREN LIEBERMANN, CNN JERUSALEM BUREAU CHIEF: It seems to be more of what we have seen since the beginning, even as it has moved into a new phase as
Israel targets the Iranian regime basically across the country here. Some of the latest strikes, according to the Israeli military, continue to take
place in the capital of Tehran, but also in the Northern Iranian City of Tabriz.
So, we see this wide-ranging strike as Israel has expanded its air superiority, along with the U.S. over the country and Israel pounding away
here. What's interesting is Israel's Defense Minister, Israel Katz, said, just a short time ago, this operation will proceed without any time limit
until we reach all the goals and decisively win the campaign. Well, Israel hasn't quite stated what the goals of the campaign are.
Only made it quite clear, as we see in the pictures coming from Iran, that the strikes continue in wave after wave of attack here. It's also
interesting that Israel Katz, the defense minister, made those comments despite President Donald Trump musing about victory, whether it comes in
days or in the immediate future, indicating potentially that he's looking at ending the campaign.
While Israel is signaling quite differently, with the expectation here that Israel has at least some number of weeks more of targets to go after in the
capital of Tehran and in Iran itself. Now it is worth noting, and I will point out that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tried to tweet at the
Iranian people, though he did so in English, not in Farsi.
He said, as Israel is carrying out wave after wave of strikes, we are your ally, your best ally. We fully respect your sovereignty. It's unclear if he
expects that message to win Israel any favor in Iran, but at least some type of outreach that Israel is trying to conduct here.
[09:15:00]
That being said, it's not like Israel has put forward any plan for what happens if the regime finally falls. But Becky, with what we're seeing
today and what we have seen that doesn't appear to be imminent, especially as. It's not like Israel has put forward any plan for what happens if the
regime finally falls.
But Becky with what we're seeing today and what we have seen that doesn't appear to be imminent, especially as within the last hour and a half or so
we saw sirens warning of incoming missiles. So, Iran retains some capability, at least, of striking back.
ANDERSON: Yeah, as it does here in this Gulf region, as we continue to monitor what is going on in Iran with this war between the U.S., Israel and
Tehran at present, Israel also said it struck targets in Beirut and Lebanon and issued another sweeping evacuation order for residents in the south of
the city. What's the latest?
LIEBERMANN: Israel said that as it carried out strikes in Iran, it was attacking Beirut as well, the southern suburb of Dahieh, which is
considered Hezbollah stronghold. We have seen from images and pictures in Beirut residential buildings that have been hit in the strikes as Israel.
Again, just like Iran carries that wave after wave of attacks, and its forces push for now somewhat deeper into or past the Israel-Lebanon border
into Southern Lebanon. But it is worth noting that there are members of Israel's far right government who are openly musing about creating what
they call a new yellow line in Southern Lebanon.
That is a new buffer zone which is seizing and occupying some amount of territory in southern Lebanon to, as they see it, protect the communities
of Northern Israel. So even as there hasn't been any indication of a ground invasion, yet, there are politicians here openly musing about that, openly
talking about seizing more territory, as we see the attacks continue from Israel targeting Hezbollah.
ANDERSON: Oren Liebermann is in Tel Aviv for you in Israel. Thank you, Oren. It is just after quarter past five here in Abu Dhabi. Italy's Prime
Minister has delivered her toughest criticism yet of the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran. In remarks to Parliament earlier today, Giorgia Meloni said
the conflict is part of a dangerous trend of interventions that she described as quote, outside the scope of international law.
She also condemned a missile strike in elementary school in Southern Iran, reportedly killing dozens of girls, and call for those responsible to be
identified.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GIORGIA MELONI, ITALIAN PRIME MINISTER: But we also intend to make our voice heard so that as the United States and Israel continue their military
actions aimed at neutralizing Iran's military capabilities, the safety of civilians, starting with children, is preserved.
For this reason, on behalf of the government, I express my strong condemnation of the massacre of girls at the school in Minab in Southern
Iran. My solidarity with the families of the young victims, and my request that responsibility for this tragedy be quickly determined.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Well, that is the Italian Prime Minister. CNN's Senior International Correspondent Melissa Bell is live in Paris. Melissa, until
now, with the exception of Spain, most European countries have avoided directly criticizing the U.S. and Israel. We've sort of heard that from the
UK.
But do we expect that to change from a block that is building a unified voice, or is that not the case?
MELISSA BELL, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It's trying to build a unified voice. And I think that's exactly the problem, Becky, that the
Europeans are encountering. There are those who, for national reasons, like Pedro Sanchez and Keir Starmer, adopted a fairly cautious approach to the
American and Israeli intervention war in Iran.
There are those who preferred to wait before expressing themselves. There are those like you just heard Giorgia Meloni, a pretty staunch ally of
President Trump, here in Europe now speaking out fairly forcefully. So. There are the individual positions of the national governments of Europe,
driven either by internal politics or the political hues of their leadership.
But then there is the divisive question also for the European institutions themselves, which are also preventing Europe from speaking with one voice.
We've been hearing Ursula von der Leyen, the commission president, arguing fairly forcefully these last few days for the fact that Europe needed to
change in order to be able to act with one voice more quickly.
That ruffling a lot of feathers, because there are those who believe that actually the way the European Union is built, looking for consensus and
compromise, is inherent to how it functions, and that should not be changed in favor, for instance, of the commission having more power than it has
currently.
Here's what Ursula von der Leyen had to say in front of some very skeptical parliamentarians earlier today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
URSULA VON DER LEYEN, EUROPEAN COMMISSION PRESIDENT: Allow me to make one important point, seeing the world as it is in no way diminishes our
determination to fight for the world as we want it.
[09:20:00]
The European Union was founded as a Peace project. Our unwavering commitment to the pursuit of peace, to the principles of the U.N. Charter
and to international law as a central -- are as central today as they were at our creation.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BELL: There is the Commission President really reassuring other Europeans of her vision of the EU. And remember that those feathers were ruffled
initially, because she'd come out very strongly initially, Becky, with a statement supporting regime change in Iran, a statement that in no way the
European institutions or the member states had given her the power, the authority to give.
So that explains her trying to now explain her commitment to the functioning of the European Union. So, a lot of difficulty to answer your
question for Europeans to speak with von voice, institutional questions that arise into the functioning of the European Union as a result of this
particular crisis, even as France.
For instance, has sent out to the Eastern Mediterranean this very substantial Armada whose point is defensive for the time being, but is
nonetheless an indication of Europe being dragged into a conflict. It was never even consulted on, Becky.
ANDERSON: As a block, and it has to be said now as individual states, you are seeing some real concern behind the scenes about energy security and
supplies, the impact that, that lack of security and supply will have on prices. And a wider sort of story about how this war is impacting European,
regional European and global growth.
What are you hearing across Europe, about the concerns now, about a real risk here?
BELL: Concerns that are going to translate we believe today in an important announcement, Becky, from the International Energy Agency, and whether or
not in line with a statement we had earlier this week from the G7 it is prepared to allow for the largest ever release of some of those strategic
reserves of oil that it has at its disposal.
That statement from the G7 followed up today, late in a short while, by a call that will be presided over by the French President, as president --
says, presidency of the G7. And we will be looking at the outcome of that call to see whether those strategic reserves will indeed be released.
It would be the largest release of such reserves we understand since the creation of the International Energy Agency back in the early 1970s. It's
only released such strategic reserves on five different occasions. This we understand, would be the biggest yet.
And I think it's an important indication of just how worried people are here in Europe but around the world about the impact of this crisis already
on energy prices and the impact that those are already having on the global economy, Becky.
ANDERSON: Yeah, absolutely. Melissa, it was good to have you. Thank you very much indeed. And watch this space on that news from the IEA. Still to
come, Iran warning American tech companies that their Middle East offices and critical infrastructure may soon become its next target.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:25:00]
ANDERSON: Well, a new warning for U.S. tech companies as the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran stretches into the second week. We are now learning that
American firms with regional offices and critical infrastructure in the Middle East could become Iran's new targets.
According to Iranian state media, the potential list includes Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Nvidia, IBM, Oracle and Palantir. These companies
operate in Israel and around the region, including here in the UAE. CNN has reached out to these firms for comments. CNN's Paula Hancocks joining me
now.
So, there is presence of these firms around this region, and we reached out for comment. What are they saying?
PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: At this point, we don't have any response, Becky, to be honest, I suspect many of these countries don't
really want to, you know, stick their neck out and make a comment. If they feel that they are now a target from Tehran, there will be concern.
Now, we don't know whether or not they are making plans for different working conditions in the region or anything like this, but what it shows
is that Iran is expanding its reach, its intentions, it's target list. So rather than seeing this play out or pull back in any way, we are definitely
seeing it expand.
They started off with the military targets. The U.S. military targets. They then went on to American political centers, and now they are branching out,
saying American tech companies are going to be a target as well. Now, clearly, we've seen far more than what they have said they would target be
targeted.
We've seen hotels, we've seen city centers, airports, for example, have been targeted as well. But this is a significant change if they are now
going to go for individual companies.
ANDERSON: I think the if there is important, because caveat, this is Iranian state media reporting this at this point. But it's important that
we report what we know as we continue to follow this story. What do we know about U.S. communications between these Gulf allies of the U.S. and
Washington at this point?
HANCOCKS: So, we do know there was a conversation between the Saudi Foreign Minister and the U.S. Secretary of State discussing the - -it was called
the continued flagrant Iranian attacks by the Saudi statement, discussing how they were going to deal with it. We know that there are great concern
and anger in this region.
The frustration that was felt at the beginning about the fact that this U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran, went ahead very quickly turned to Iran as soon
as they became the brunt of Iranian retaliation. In fact, there's a quote, as well from the Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesperson, which is
interesting, pointing out that from day one, they had said this is going to be a very real risk of regional war if you go ahead with this attack.
He said, this is the biggest I told you so in the history of I told you so in the world. It just speaks to the frustration of the leaders here that
have been dragged into this war, that they wanted no part of, that they've lobbied against. And we are seeing, certainly in the case of Saudi Arabia,
direct reach out to the United States, clearly, to find out what they can do to try and bring this to an end.
ANDERSON: Yeah, when we saw the Emir of Qatar statement that he had spoken to trump the other day, look, I mean, you know, they're very good
relations, of course, to date, at least, or certainly, very good communications with Washington, around this region. It isn't difficult for
them to reach out what assumes that there are talks going on behind the scenes.
But those that frustration is absolutely clear at this point. What happens next with regard the sort of defenses that are moved into this region, if
this is going to be a longer conflict than perhaps had been expected. I'm sure it's part of those conversations, so we will continue to monitor
those.
Thank you. We are nearing the opening bell on Wall Street. Futures have been mixed heading into the trading day. Investors, of course, are closely
watching events unfolding in the Middle East, looking to see if G7, for example, will release oil from their strategic reserves. We're hearing the
IEA are also expecting to make a decision on their reserves today.
[09:30:00]
These markets just picking up on the futures, suggesting a really mixed picture here, but oil watching back in vogue -- once again today, the
whiplash on those oil markets really having a huge impact on the stock markets. That is the bell today, Wednesday, the 11th of March.
It is 09:30 in New York, it is 05:30 here in Abu Dhabi in the UAE. We are going to take a very short break. Back after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANDERSON: And welcome back. I'm Becky Anderson in Abu Dhabi in the UAE. This is "Connect the World" from our Middle East programming headquarters.
It is 32 minutes past five in the afternoon here just after half past nine in New York, we saw the bell before the break.
Let's see how these stocks, then are getting on a couple of minutes into the opening of trade on Wall Street, and it is a mixed picture. We are
seeing the broader S&P 500 and the tech-laden NASDAQ, both higher. The DOW struggling to get out of negative territory.
Oil prices are obviously being keenly watched by investors, and they are climbing again today, as more ships near the Strait of Hormuz come under
attack. Three vessels have been hit according to the UK maritime trade organization. We are expecting to hear from G7 nations today on whether
they will release oil from their strategic reserves.
Those prices suggesting traders aren't necessarily convinced that even the release of those reserves by G7 or even by the IEA, will be enough to
absorb the shocks. My next guest is Neil Atkinson. He's a Former Head of the Oil Division at the International Energy Agency.
What can we expect do you believe from the IEA today to try to provide some stability for these markets?
NEIL ATKINSON, VISITING FELLOW AT NATIONAL CENTER FOR ENERGY ANALYTICS: Well, what we seem to be hearing from sources, is that the IEA emergency
stock release could be as much as 400 million barrels to be phased in over the next few months.
This hasn't been officially announced yet, but that would appear to be the kind of magnitude that's going to be discussed and could well be announced
today. Now, so far today, of course, we've already seen that Japan has already decided to release stocks, and there was an announcement earlier
today.
So, Japan is, if you like, broken ranks, and Germany, I think, is something similar. So, we're expecting a big announcement later today, which will
make a big contribution towards giving stability to markets.
[09:35:00]
But ultimately, an emergency stock release is emergency surgery. It will not deal with the fundamental problem, which is the continued blockage of
the Strait of Hormuz.
ANDERSON: Yeah. 400 million barrels of oil, as I understand it, and you'll know better than I do, given that you were Head of the Oil Division at the
IEA. It would be a record number. But as you say, not necessarily going to, you know, put a line underneath all of this uncertainty.
So, what needs to happen next at this point? I mean, yes, the strait needs to get moving. It is unlikely that is going to happen any time soon. So,
failing that, what?
ATKINSON: Well, failing that, whether we have to continue to use emergency stocks, and companies and countries are going to have to use the stocks
which they have on land and in their own hands. There is no alternative to realistic alternative to a resumption of Strait of Hormuz activity.
There's no question of that. And the Head of Saudi Aramco said, I think yesterday, or may have been on Monday, that we face catastrophic
consequences for the regional economies. And Gulf producers are losing 1.5 billion dollars a day in the export revenues. Their oil dependent economies
as you know, well, sitting in the Middle East and you know, something has to give soon.
ANDERSON: We are only 12 days into this war. We are already looking at plunging into these reserves at record levels. You are right, to quote the
CEO of Aramco who said that this, you know, the world faces catastrophic consequences, should this war not end anytime soon, and the energy
disruption be sort of, you know, put back together again.
I mean, I just wonder at this point. I mean, you are deeply imbued in this world, given your background, how bad could this get at this point?
ATKINSON: Well, in theory, if there isn't an earliest resolution to this problem, the emergency stocks and the commercial stocks are drawn down to
very dangerously low levels. And you know, but I cannot believe we would actually get to this situation, because companies and countries, as well as
drawing down stocks.
They will stop bidding for supplies which are available from other countries and other regions, including oil from the United States, from the
North Sea, South America, and anywhere else that is not -- Gulf. So, you know, we are in a situation we have never seen this before, 400 million
barrels, if that is the correct number.
And let's just say it's not been officially confirmed, that is a record number, because this is a record catastrophe. It far outweighs anything
we've ever seen before in the previous five emergency drawdowns that the IEA has overseen. There's nothing to compare it with.
ANDERSON: I hate to use the term, who's winning here who's losing, because, you know, when you sit in the Gulf region as I am, it doesn't feel like
anybody is winning out of this. And this is a, you know, this is a deadly conflict at this point, but when I consider the fact that Iran is getting
its oil exports out.
Some reports suggest that record levels the shadow fleets are making it through the Strait of Hormuz, albeit in small numbers. China is getting
access to this oil. The U.S. has already suggested to India that they give permission for them to lean into Russia for deals that would otherwise be
sanctioned.
I mean, you know, as you look around the world here, what do you see where, you know, where are the kind of interesting sort of key take outs for you?
ATKINSON: Well, let's break this down here, China clearly has a special relationship with Iran. There's no question of that. And Iran -- while
China is Iran's biggest single customer, in fact, it's only significant customer for oil. And the Iranians are in a situation to turn a blind eye
to Chinese vessels.
But even before the conflict started, Iran had parked about 140 million barrels of oil, sanctioned oil, on ships. So that oil was outside of the
Strait of Hormuz and is available to anybody that wishes to take it, whether it be China or anybody else. Russia, of course, is in a situation
where after the invasion of Ukraine, it greatly increased its shipments of oil to India, having not said much there before the war.
[09:40:00]
India is now being given permission to take oil which is sitting water, and that will help India, because India is heavily dependent on imports of Gulf
oil. But the main point to make here is, this is really an Asian oil crisis, because countries like Japan and Korea are 90 percent dependent on
oil imports from the Middle East and Gulf countries and India.
You've got India, you have China, you have Japan, you have Korea, it's really an Asian problem far more than anywhere else, because in Europe,
they're getting large volumes of oil from the United States and from the North Sea. So, Asia is where the main problem is going to be, because they
are heavily dependent on the Middle East Gulf.
ANDERSON: And we see that reflected in a couple of straight sessions for significant losses for these Asian stock markets earlier on this week. All
right, look, it's fantastic to have you. Thank you very much indeed. And we will keep a keen eye on the announcement from the IEA a little later today,
as we expected.
Thank you. And folks you're watching "Connect the World" with me Becky Anderson. We will be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANDERSON: I want to get back to the danger escalating in the Strait of Hormuz, just off the coast from here where I am, where Iran has apparently
begun laying mines. Sources say a few dozen mines have been placed over the last few days, and since Iran effectively controls the narrow waterway, its
forces could potentially lay many more. As Retired UK Navy Commodore Simon Kelly now explains.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
COMMODORE SIMON KELLY (RET.), BRITISH ROYAL NAVY: There's a long history of mining in this area. So, in the tank awards in the 1980s we saw this
technique used, and actually the U.S. had damage to ships in the first Gulf conflict in the 90s, Princeton and Tripoli.
The Iranians and we've watched them for many years. The Iranians have got a deep stock of mines. It's it doesn't need to be technologically
challenging. They can be launched from small craft that you can just throw a cover over move very quickly. The U.S. will have been watching this, and
as you can see from the strikes, they're taking preemptive action.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: And President Trump suggesting military escorts could be the solution to get traffic moving again safely. Kelly explains that would come
with a lot of potential issues. Hear what he says, the U.S. military will have to prepare to deal with.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KELLY: You can take units away from a carrier strike group, and you can conduct escorting through the strait, but it is very narrow.
[09:45:00]
It will restrict their ability to maneuver. But on the other hand, it also presents perhaps a more attractive target for some of the small craft who
could come out. The Iranian technique that they demonstrate in exercise is to come out in swarms of small vessels on with small caliber weapons,
missile systems, and some of them with explosives on the front.
And so, countering this will be about layered defense. The Americans will put up a huge amount in the air. They'll have intelligence that these
things are coming at them. They'll put up a screen and layers that these craft have to come through. But you shouldn't underestimate the challenge
of just the volume that you might have to deal with.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Well, even if the U.S. did manage to set up such a complex operation. Kelly says there would be no guarantee for tankers. Have a
listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KELLY: The tankers will then have to make a choice. Do you go through where you might actually have an increased risk of attack because there are U.S.
naval vessels in the vicinity, or do you take the risk and you go through and escort it. It's a real challenge for the maritime trade.
There is a very close link between the U.S. Navy, the UK maritime trade organization, and these organizations. There'll be communications going on
day and night to reassure the maritime trade industry as a whole.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Simon Kelly reporting for you, certainly providing analysis for you. Well, the U.S. Defense Secretary taking to social media, confirming
that the U.S. has been eliminating inactive mine laying vessels. Pete Hegseth ended his post with quote, you have officially been put on notice,
exclamation mark.
Complete with that. Well, it's the kind of rhetoric that we come to expect. But sharp departure from Hegseth's predecessors as CNN's Tom Foreman now
explains.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
PETE HEGSETH, U.S. DEFENSE SECRETARY: America is winning decisively, devastatingly and without mercy.
TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Ever since the first fighter launched --
HEGSETH: With brutal efficiency, total air dominance and an unbreakable will to accomplish the president's objectives.
FOREMAN (voice-over): And the first missile landed --
HEGSETH: You act decisively in chaos.
FOREMAN (voice-over): Pete Hegseth has been speaking unlike any other Secretary of Defense ever.
HEGSETH: Death and destruction from the sky all day long.
FOREMAN (voice-over): Gone are the solemn statesman like updates on warfare, the Pentagon has long preferred in their place. Hegseth has picked
up the tone long established by the commander-in-chief.
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: He died like a dog. He died like a coward.
FOREMAN (voice-over): Blasting the Iranian regime.
HEGSETH: For 47 years, these barbaric savages in the Iranian regime have murdered our brothers in arms, my guys, your guys.
FOREMAN (voice-over): Ridiculing their attempts to stand up to the dual military powers of the United States and Israel.
HEGSETH: The combination is sheer destruction for our radical Islamist Iranian adversaries. They are toast and they know it, or at least, soon
enough, they will know it.
FOREMAN (voice-over): And even as he mocks the faith of Iranian foes and his department post online about showing them no mercy, Hegseth is blurring
the line between his private Christian beliefs and his secular public duties.
HEGSETH: May the Lord grant unyielding strength and refuge to our warriors, unbreakable protection to them in our homeland, and total victory over
those who seek to harm them.
FOREMAN (voice-over): Like Hegseth, the White House too, has taken a peculiar tack to spur support for the war, turning bomb blast into a
highlight reel on X set to the song, Here Comes the Boom. Snagging scenes from the video game Grand Theft Auto to underscore other explosive moments.
And even intercutting scenes from factual battle with clips from fictional movies and TV shows, all with the clear intent of selling the public on the
proposition that everything is going as planned.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Flawless victory.
FOREMAN: Of course, this fight has not been flawless for American troops. Some have died, others have been wounded, and it is not at all clear how
long they're going to have to stay in the battle, even as what looks an awful lot like a marketing campaign marches on. Tom Foreman, CNN,
Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
ANDERSON: Well, still to come. Why the U.S. and Iran may both claim victory when the fighting eventually stops.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:50:00]
ANDERSON: Welcome back. CNN's Stephen Collinson has written an analysis piece for our digital platforms about the ongoing war Iran. And he writes
in part that often, America has seemed to be fighting different wars than its adversaries. And in the current one, he writes, it's conceivable both
sides could claim a win when the fighting stops.
And Stephen argues that while the U.S. dominates Iran with its massive fire power and is already scripting a victory narrative. Tehran has its own view
of victory that the U.S. may not understand. Stephen joining me now from Washington. And you write that Iran might respond to a Trump claim of
victory with terrorist attacks on U.S. Global soft targets, with continued missile strikes in the Gulf, or by activating what's left of proxy allies
such as Hezbollah or Hamas or the Houthis.
Is there any indication that the U.S. Administration is bracing for that eventuality?
STEPHEN COLLINSON, CNN POLITICS SENIOR REPORTER: Yes, a good point. And if you think about what's happening in the Strait of Hormuz right now, Iran is
showing that asymmetric power it has in a fight against a much bigger and more powerful adversary.
I think what we're seeing is what we have often seen in America's modern wars, whereby the technological prowess might and sophistication of the
U.S. military when it is arrayed against a smaller, less powerful adversary is very effective. But at the same time, as in Afghanistan or Iraq or even
in Vietnam, those U.S. enemies adapt, and they fight a different war that the United States is fighting.
So, by any, I think, objective assessment of the military part of this war, the U.S. is obviously winning. We don't know exactly how that's playing in
the internal politics of Iran, but it clearly the United States is causing a great deal of destruction. But I think many people in Washington thought
this would be over already.
Iran's goal in this is not necessarily to beat the United States, because that's impossible, but survival of the regime in any form, after having
stood up to a generational clash with the Great Satan, the United States and the regional hedge on Israel would be seen in some circumstances a win,
especially for a regime which we've seen very recently and way back in the 1980s in the Iran-Iraq War, has few compunctions about sacrificing its own
people for its political goals.
ANDERSON: Stephen, while I've got you, I want you and our viewers to take a listen to Special Envoy Steve Witkoff answering a question about Russia's
involvement amid reports that they have been sharing Intel with Iranians. Just have a listen to this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
STEVE WITKOFF, U.S. SPECIAL ENVOY FOR PEACE MISSIONS: I can tell you that yesterday, on the call with the president, the Russians said that they have
not been sharing. That's what they said. So, you know, we can take them at their word.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ANDERSON: Well, we can take them at their word, he said. I was just discussing how this conflict, to a degree, is going relatively well for
Russia. India has been given permission by the U.S. to buy more oil from them, for example.
[09:55:00]
And that does seem to be borne out by hearing Steve Witkoff say that we can just take the Kremlin at its word, right?
COLLINSON: Yeah, and this seems to be the latest in a series of rather credulous postures towards Russia throughout the second Trump
Administration over Ukraine and other issues, and really dating back to the first Trump Administration, clearly the president doesn't want to ruin his
relationship with Vladimir Putin.
I think there's been a lot of talk in Washington about, well, how this war is a big blow against Russia and China, because they would be losing an
ally in Iran. I think Putin's number one strategic goal is to maintain his relationship with the United States. Now we're looking at the possibility
that U.S. sanctions on Russian oil could be lifted because the United States is in so much duress over the logjam in the Strait of Hormuz and the
political impact that's having on Donald Trump and the Republicans.
So, it looks like, as you say, that Putin is going to prosper here. There's a very good website story on cnn.com by Nathan Hodge, which goes into all
of these strategic questions. But once again, it seems like Vladimir Putin is playing the Trump Administration very well.
ANDERSON: Nathan, of course, was our Bureau Chief in in Russia for a period of time. An excellent writer, always provides good analysis. Thank you for
pointing that one out for the viewers. Stephen stuff always well worth a read of course. You can find all of this@cnn.com on our digital platforms,
on the app.
If you're watching TV, do also use the other services that we have. Before we go, thank you, Stephen. This Breaking News just coming in, the
International Energy Agency has now advised member countries to release a total of 400 million barrels of oil into the global market.
We were expecting that recommendation, and Germany's economic affairs and energy ministry confirmed that the IEA request has gone in. That was
moments ago. So, we'll do more on that in the second half of this show. That's it for first hour, though. I'll be back right after this break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
END
