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Muslims Celebrate Eid as War Rages in Middle East; Region Carries on With Holiday Celebrations in Midst of War; Middle Eastern Countries Intercept New Drones, Missiles Friday; Israel Strikes Iran as Country Celebrates Persian New Year; Trump Denied Report About U.S. Troops Deployment Plans. Aired 9-10a ET

Aired March 20, 2026 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[09:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST, CONNECT THE WORLD: Well, a live look at worshippers gathering at the Grand Mosque to perform the Eid prayer after

the end of Ramadan. It is 04:00 p.m. in Mecca. It is 05:00 p.m. here in Abu Dhabi in the UAE. From our Middle East programming headquarters, I'm Becky

Anderson.

You're watching "Connect the World". Well, across the wider Middle East and the wider Muslim world, people are doing their best to celebrate under a

cloud of warm as two major holidays coincide. Muslims around the world are celebrating Eid Al-Fitr, marking the end of the holy month of Ramadan.

People in Jerusalem praying in the streets near the Al-Aqsa Mosque, where the gates are closed during Eid for the first time since 1967, Israel says,

for security reasons. And in Iran, it is the Persian New Year Nowruz, a time for family renewal and new beginnings.

One resident in Tehran said the spring weather has been perfect and the city feels lighter, quote, even though we are getting bombarded. Well, the

uncertainty and fear in this region is palpable, a constant undercurrent, as this war drags on. The question remains, where is this conflict headed

next?

Well, nearly three weeks in Iran is reporting yet another high-ranking individual has been killed. This time, the spokesman for the powerful

Revolutionary Guard Corps. Goldman Sachs warning high oil prices is here to stay, and could be above $100 a barrel all the way through next year.

That of course, due to what Goldman called large supply shocks from the war and Iran's iron grip on the Strait of Hormuz. And the global hand wringing

goes on behind the scenes over how to reopen that crucial shipping lane. Gulf States may be coming around into joining the effort to reopen the

strait, but there is frustration over Europe's reluctance.

Well, the stock market in New York opens about 30 minutes from now. And this is the picture there, and we'll get you back there as the bell rings

at 09:30 local time. Well, the ever-rising cost of a tank of gas starting to grate on the American public. President Donald Trump addressed that from

the Oval Office, saying military action against Iran was justified and the pain at the pump is temporary.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: And I saw what was happening in Iran, and I said, I hate to make this excursion, but we're

going to have to do it. And I actually thought the numbers would be worse. I thought that it would go up more than it did.

I thought it would be worse, much worse, actually, I thought there was a chance it could be much worse. It's not bad, and it's going to be over with

pretty soon.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Well Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has confirmed that Mr. Trump asked him to stop attacking key energy sites in Iran, and says

Israel will comply. CNN's Jeremy Diamond asked the prime minister just how far that cohesion would go. Have a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT: You've also indicated today that you've made a commitment to President Trump not to strike these oil

and gas facilities in the future. Should President Trump come to you one day and say oil prices are too high, it's time to end this war?

Will you listen to him, and do you need the United States in order to continue this campaign alone?

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: I don't think any two leaders have been as coordinated as President Trump and I. He's the leader. I'm,

you know, his ally, America is the leader. But ultimately, President Trump makes his own decisions, and do I respect them? Yes, I do.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Well, let's get the view from Israel now. CNN's Oren Liebermann is in Jerusalem. What do you make of what you heard there from the Israeli

Prime Minister?

OREN LIEBERMANN, CNN JERUSALEM BUREAU CHIEF: Becky, there wasn't anything I thought was particularly new or revealing in Prime Minister Benjamin

Netanyahu's press conference, and seemed it was much more of an effort, first to lavish praise on President Donald Trump.

And then to make sure that there was the same messaging coming from both Israel and the United States in terms of why this war started? Who is in

charge here? Netanyahu made clear that he is following Trump's lead, and Trump is in charge of this war, and made his own decision to start the war

and then where this goes from here.

There was an interesting question when it came to possibilities for the future, and here is where Netanyahu himself talked about the possibility of

troops on the ground. A step he says would be necessary if you're going to be determined to affect regime change in Iran. Take a listen to this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

NETANYAHU: I think the question is, will the conditions be created for such a change. I think it's too early to say. And I think in the final account,

as I said, it's up to the Iranian people to show that, to choose the moment and to rise to the moment. We can create the conditions, but they have to,

you know, they have to explode those conditions at a certain point.

It is often said that you can't win. You can't do revolutions from the air. That is true. You can't do it only from there. You can do a lot of things

from the air, and we're doing but there have to be a ground component as well. There are many possibilities for this ground component, and I take

the liberty of not sharing with you all those possibilities.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LIEBERMANN: There have been all kinds of reports and speculation about whether Trump would put troops on the ground in Iran as part of some

mission. But what would be very, very clear if he chose to do that is this war is not ending quickly.

ANDERSON: While I've got you, Oren, I do want to discuss our viewers an update on what is going on in Lebanon, which is absolutely crucial, of

course, a ground operation, a ground offensive there by the Israelis and continued attacks from the air.

LIEBERMANN: We haven't seen an all-out ground invasion yet of Israeli troops moving in and crossing the border in the thousands. We have seen

Israel seize more and more territory in Southern Lebanon, fairly close to the border. They say this is to protect the communities in the north, but

that is a deepening position.

Meanwhile, we see the Israeli military trying to cut off Southern Lebanon the Litani River, a crucial river there. First, there's been evacuation

warnings for everything south of that, and even quite a bit of territory north of that. But now the Israeli military has said they are bombing the

bridges that cross the Litani River in an effort to prevent Hezbollah, the Iranian backed militant group, from crossing those bridges and accessing

Southern Lebanon.

Essentially Israel trying to clear out the area, not only of the civilians and the residents who live there, as approximately a million people have

been forcibly displaced by Israeli military operations, but it's also an effort to make sure Hezbollah can't access that area we have seen fighting

very close to the border, border area.

And of course, this all comes as Israeli air strikes have pounded the capital of Beirut, the Dahieh southern area of Beirut, which is considered

a Hezbollah stronghold, as well as several other parts of the country. So, this effort continues. One of the key questions is, will Israel carry out

that larger ground invasion of Lebanon once it frees up its air force from operations over Iran.

ANDERSON: Good to have you, Oren. Thank you very much indeed. Seven minutes past three, there it is, just after five in the afternoon here in the UAE.

Iranian attacks persist in this Gulf region, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, here in the UAE, all report intercepting projectiles in the early hours of

Friday.

These fiery images show Kuwait's Mina al-Ahmadi oil refinery, which was attacked by drones on Thursday and again today. Let's bring in CNN's Paula

Hancocks, who is monitoring the region from Abu Dhabi. And just to bring us up to speed on the very latest, if you will.

PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well Becky, we can start with Kuwait. We did hear from the authorities there that they came under multiple hostile

drone attacks at that oil facility, and that they had to shut down parts of the facility. They called it precautionary, but also pointing out that they

were battling a number of fires, which broke out in several units.

So that refinery has come under attack a number of times yesterday, it was targeted once again, as well firefighters, we understand, are trying to

control those fires at this point. Now, when you look at Saudi Arabia, authorities there have said that they have intercepted at least a dozen

drones which were heading towards the Eastern Province.

Now that, of course, is where those oil fields are situated. Also in Bahrain, a fire broke out at a warehouse due to shrapnel from an

interception of one of these projectiles coming in, here in the UAE, we know that there was a very early wake up call for residents of Dubai, as

there were a number of interceptions there as well.

No clarity on where exactly they were heading towards. But it has become clear that Tehran's number one target, really, when it comes to these Gulf

nations, is the energy infrastructure. And the biggest damage that we have seen has been in Qatar, and that was on Thursday with that Ras Laffan gas

facility that was impacted severely.

We heard from Qatar Energy's CEO talking about that incident and just how serious it was, speaking about the extensive damage to our production

facilities, saying that it has reduced the export capacity from this LNG plant by about 17 percent.

[09:10:00]

Bear in mind the LNG exports Qatar accounts for about 20 percent of the world's demand at this point. So that has a severe knock-on effect around

the world. Also saying that it will take up to five years to be able to rectify the damage that has been done just in these attacks, calling it an

unjustified and senseless attack on global energy security and stability.

Now, he also pointed out that the sort of countries that are going to be impacted by this, China, South Korea, Italy and Belgium, saying that that

some of these contracts, they were going to have to claim force majeure, pointing out that it is conditions beyond their control on certain

contracts that they will not be able to fulfill up to those five years.

So, it really does appear that in Tehran sites at this point is the energy infrastructure around this region. We also had an update from the Ministry

of Defense here in the UAE about what they had been dealing with. They say that in the past 24 hours, they have dealt with 4 missiles and 26 drones.

Those figures coming to us just recently, a little earlier today. Now four ballistic missiles, that number has dropped. Usually, we see around a dozen

ballistic missiles that are fired every day. But of course, this is just one 24-hour period. We can't read too much into it, but certainly the

figures and numbers we're looking at here are vastly down from what we were dealing with at the beginning of the war.

But of course, they are more strategically placed now. They are firing them towards the places where they know they can make the most economic pain,

Becky.

ANDERSON: Paula Hancocks on the region for you, and closing there with the latest numbers from the UAE. Well, tune in for our CNN Town Hall "War with

Iran". Dana Bash in a studio. Audience will question a panel including U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz.

That is 09:00 p.m. Eastern Time, and at the times locally for you on your screens. Well ahead on "Connect the World" -- on the ground in Iran in the

early days of this war. Fred Pleitgen takes a close look at the impact.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANDERSON: Well, we've been discussing the U.S. and Israeli war with Iran, and just how coordinated Netanyahu and Trump are on this campaign. Let's

get the view from Washington, Our Kevin Liptak is at the White House. Kevin before the break, we heard Netanyahu say that Donald Trump is firmly in

control. What's the view from the administration?

KEVIN LIPTAK, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: You know, I don't think that anyone inside the White House at this point believes that Israel's

objectives in this conflict are entirely the same as President Trump's, and obviously we saw that play out, yesterday, the president acknowledging that

he had asked Netanyahu to stop attacks on those energy sites inside Iran.

[09:15:00]

The president claiming and insisting that there wasn't too much daylight between himself and Netanyahu, saying that everything was coordinated. But

I'll tell you, just in talking to American officials, there is a recognition that what Netanyahu is trying to accomplish here is at this

point, quite different than what President Trump is trying to do, and you see that in the consistent targeting of Iranian senior leaders.

You know, President Trump, at this point, has said he doesn't even know who they're dealing with in Iran, and I think it does speak to what each side

of this sees as the end point of this conflict. You know, President Trump has laid out fairly specific military objectives for what he's trying to

accomplish here, whether it's taking out the missile and drone arsenal, obliterating the nuclear program, getting rid of the navy.

I think American officials see Netanyahu is trying to pursue something much more ambitious, which is essentially a failed state Iran, you know,

obliterating its leadership, trying to cut off its revenue sources in the form of the gas and oil facilities. Those are two completely separate

things, and I think it's evident as now we approach the fourth week of this conflict, that the U.S. and Israeli goals here are diverging.

Now, President Trump has insisted that that's not the case. And you know, he has tried at multiple points over the course of this war to insist that

he and Netanyahu are very much on the same page. He has said that they spoke -- that they speak on almost a daily basis.

But at this point, I think it's clear to everyone who is working for President Trump that the two sides have very different ideas of how this

conflict might end.

ANDERSON: Yeah, it's good to have you from the White House there in Washington, D.C. Thank you. Will his war with Iran now enters its 21st day,

day to day life for Iranians has been greatly affected. Iranian state media says over 18,000 Iranian civilians have been injured since this conflict

began.

CNN's Fred Pleitgen reflects now on his decade of visits to the country and why this trip recently has proven more difficult than others.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: OK, we're hearing jets overhead --

PLEITGEN (voice-over): For more than a decade, my colleague Claudia Otto and I have been coming to Iran. Reporting from the Islamic Republic is

never easy. But facing an open ended American and Israeli military campaign, the Iranian government is now up against maybe its biggest

challenge since the Islamic Revolution in 1979 and maybe even the Iran, Iraq war starting in 1980.

This trip in the opening days of America and Israel's war would prove to be harder than most.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We should go --

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yeah, we should go --

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: It looks like a chimney, though, doesn't it? Anyway, something was hit.

PLEITGEN (voice-over): With Iran's airspace closed. We drive for two days from Armenia approaching Tehran in the early morning hours. CNN was the

first western broadcast media outlet granted visas since the war began. Reporting in Iran during a time of war is complicated, we have full

editorial control over what we publish, but need permission any time we want to fill.

We're almost certainly being monitored. And so, getting the perspective of everyday Iranian can be complicated.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Excuse me.

PLEITGEN: There are a lot of bombings, and of course, it's also quite scary. When you hear jets going overhead, you hear bombs dropping, and you

hope that you're not in the vicinity of something that's getting hit. So certainly, a very difficult situation for the folks who live here in

Tehran, and many are telling us that they're basically just trying to get - -

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Of course there is fear.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Anyone saying they're not afraid is lying. Human beings cherish their lives. So many people have lost their children and their

families. Civilians on the other side are dying too. That isn't right either.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Attack on Mehrabad Airport was terrifying. I'm terrified to drive every day. We're concerned because there's an IRGC base nearby.

We're especially worried about the Mosalla Mosque. If it's bombed, this whole area would be devasted.

PLEITGEN (voice-over): The Mosalla Mosque is where after Friday prayers, hard line Iranian gather to rally in support of the government.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Khamenei, the martyr.

PLEITGEN: There are thousands of people here. But of course, we also have to keep in mind this is just a small snapshot of Iran society.

[09:20:00]

And many of the people who come here are, of course, political and religious hard liners.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Jewish army, this will be your last breath.

PLEITGEN (voice-over): Religious Shia Muslims strike their heads in ritual mourning for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Iran's late Supreme Leader killed in an

Israeli air strike.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We kill Trump. We kill Netanyahu. We kill all of them.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We kill come dressed in shrouds and stand by the future leader and we will protect them. Even if, God forbid, they mange to

harm the new leader who is announced, we will again stand by the next leader as well. God willing, this government will continue with strength.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That's a f--king massive airstrike, man.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What was in there? Police station?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Police station, yeah.

PLEITGEN (voice-over): But it's not just America and Israel that threaten the theocratic rule. This war comes just months after the government

crushed massive nationwide demonstrations, leaving thousands of protesters dead, as even the authorities themselves acknowledge.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's absolutely terrifying here. It feels like the end of the world.

PLEITGEN (voice-over): As night sets in, a black cloud rises over the city. By daybreak, oily water rains down on Tehran. Israel has struck several

major oil depots on the edge of the city.

PLEITGEN: There were air raids going on, I would say, for about an hour and a half last night, and you could really hear big impact in various parts of

the city, especially the south, the east and the west. And then we saw that thick smoke in the night sky. And I'm going to show you, above us, you can

see that there is black cloud still going overhead. And one other thing I want to show you as well.

We have a white car here, so you can really see it. It rained this morning in Tehran, and the rain seemed to be saturated with oil as well. You can

see there's this black soot that's inside the rain water.

PLEITGEN (voice-over): The strikes turn day into night.

PLEITGEN: It's an absolutely apocalyptic scene here. We've just made it to the Shahran oil depot, which was attacked last night and a massive wave of

air strikes, we heard those going on for about an hour and a half with massive thuds and then explosions that we could hear, and that thick, black

plume of smoke we saw that last night.

And now we're actually seeing it up close. What we're also seeing is that some of those destroyed storage tanks are still on fire. There's still

flames originating from them. You can also see here that the area around here is also completely destroyed. There are people here actually working

on this electricity pole to try and get the electricity back.

PLEITGEN (voice-over): Israel says it struck the oil depot, to quote, deepen the damage to Iran's military infrastructure. In the hours after the

attack, the Trump Administration expressed dismay at the bombing. Health authorities say the acid rain we were also subjected to can cause skin and

lung damage.

We meet the former foreign minister and now foreign policy adviser to the office of the Supreme Leader, Kamal Kharazi.

KAMAL KHARAZI, FOREIGN POLICY ADVISER TO OFFICE OF IRANIAN SUPREME LEADER: I don't see any room for diplomacy anymore, because Donald Trump have been

deceiving others and not keeping with his promises. And we experienced it in two times of negotiations, that while we were engaged in negotiation,

they structured us.

PLEITGEN: Do you consider this an existential threat to the Islamic Republic?

KHARAZI: It is an existential threat to the Islamic Republic, and therefore we have to say, with full mind, the proof is in the pudding. What is

important for us is the end of this game, and we are ready to continue that game.

PLEITGEN (voice-over): Every night, the sound of war planes reverberates across the city, followed by explosions that shake the windows of our

hotel.

PLEITGEN: Where we are right now is the East of Tehran, and the authorities say there was a massive air strike that hit a residential building now. And

the reason why the authorities have told us to actually wear masks when we're here on the ground is they say that, obviously this is kicking up a

lot of dust.

And so, it's better to wear a mask just to be protected. The blast from the bombs that hit this area were so strong that it not only destroyed these

buildings, but that it also damaged severely a lot of the buildings on the other side of the street, and in fact, in that larger block.

[09:25:00]

PLEITGEN (voice-over): As the bombing campaign drags on, day by day, air strike by air strike, we can feel and hear the anger among those affected

build up, also directed at us as we're viewed as media from Iran's enemy state, the U.S.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Death to the U.S.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I was in the basement. I kept bumping into the walls. Then I was under the rubble.

PLEITGEN (voice-over): Some of the survivors of this air strike are clearly still in the state of shock. As we continue filming, we hear the roar of a

jet overhead, then anti-aircraft fire, too close for comfort.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yeah, we should go.

PLEITGEN: Yeah, we should go.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We go, we go --

PLEITGEN: By which way?

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: To the right.

PLEITGEN: OK, we're hearing jets overhead, this anti-aircraft car going up. They're supposed to get out of here as fast as possible, although it's just

a big explosion around here. Let's go. So that just goes to show how fast things can turn bad here.

PLEITGEN (voice-over): Reports on social media suggest the air strikes we witnessed targeted a base of the besieged paramilitary group, impacting

surrounding civilian housing. For the first time in more than 40 years, the future of the Islamic Republic seems deeply uncertain.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Death to the U.S.

PLEITGEN (voice-over): There are long standing and widespread discontent with government corruption and mismanagement, but if President Trump hoped

that his air strikes would lead to a quick and easy transition of power, a pro American Revolution from the streets.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Death to the U.S.

PLEITGEN (voice-over): It seems he'll be disappointed. Meanwhile, Iranian, on those streets are hoping for a respite and for President Trump to focus

elsewhere.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Better look to the U.S. population, because you, your country more than our country. Have a problem about economy, about

anything. We are strong. We are more than 7000 years history. We don't fund to war any countries.

PLEITGEN (voice-over): Fred Pleitgen, CNN, Tehran.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANDERSON: Well, as we focus on what is happening on the ground in Iran, I do want to draw your attention to this article on Nowruz from our Abu Dhabi

based producer, Leila Gharagozlou, she writes, Iranian New Year is also set to coincide with the close of Ramadan and Eid Al-Fitr.

The Iranian government will hold a state prayer to mark the end of the holiest month in Islam, and it is likely to be another show of strength and

unity for a regime under fire. However, for most Iranians, regardless of race, religion or creed, it is Nowruz which is taking center stage with new

and varied meaning in a time of conflict.

You can find links to this content and more like it, insight from interviews that we've conducted across the many hours of my anchoring on my

socials @beckyCNN on X and on Instagram. We will be right.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:30:00]

ANDERSON: All right, folks, let's see how stocks are getting on the bell is wrong. The opening for the trading day done. And the DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL

average is off by about eight to 1 percent not significantly. So, when you consider what we have seen as far as oil prices are concerned, I mean, the

whip saw on oil prices absolutely remarkable.

We've seen prices as high as nearly $120 on the barrel for the global index, slightly lower than that now, but still really, really impressing on

investors just how big an impact this war is having around the world. This conflict will change the calculus of this region where I am based.

That argument made recently in a Bloomberg essay, the trauma of conflict in Iran will reshape the Gulf. The authors writing this quote, the trauma may

also reshape how the Gulf deploys its wealth. The stakes extend beyond English football clubs, Egyptian real estate and Silicon Valley companies.

Gulf investments have long suppressed U.S. borrowing costs. A change of strategy could affect even the deepest market on earth. Well, joining me

now one of the authors of that piece. Ziad Daoud, he's Chief Emerging Markets Economist, and he is with Bloomberg Economics. Ziad, thank you for

joining us.

I mean, let's start on the idea of the impact on the Gulf's long term investment strategy. Here's what I learned from the UAE's Ambassador to

Washington in a letter that I saw to the Business Council here, the UAE's 1.4 trillion investment and economic framework with the U.S. announced last

year will stay on track with plans to accelerate deployment and funding.

This messaging Ziad, from this part of the world, is that these commitments are not at risk from this war that's from the UAE, at least. What's your

sense of whether that is an outlier, or whether actually, behind the scenes, these investments stay in place and actually get double down on at

this point.

ZIAD DAOUD, CHIEF EMERGING MARKETS ECONOMIST, BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS: I think what we're going to have is what we've learned over the last 10 years at

least, is that the Gulf Cooperation Council is not one unit. It's a multiple number of countries with different goals, different financial

power and different even strategies.

And I think if you think about what is happening at this current moment, few things are happening. First, almost every country is losing income from

the inability to export oil and gas, which is the main export in the region. Second, the world is becoming a more dangerous place.

The countries have spent on defense, and this defense has paid off in this current war. They'll need to replenish. And after this war, the world is

going to end up being a more dangerous place, so the defense on spending is going to increase. So, if you combine the fact that you know they've lost

some of their income, if you agree with the fact that the world is becoming a more dangerous place.

And there'll be more defense spending in the GCC, the natural outcomes will be probably fewer investments abroad, and the U.S. is one destination in

terms of that. Now, individual countries may differ in their commitment to that these investments and these strategies, but I think the aggregate

picture is fairly clear for me.

ANDERSON: There is a counter argument that whilst yes, there will be likely significant further investment in defense for this region. The counter

argument goes that there is a possibility beyond where we can see at this point, that this is about de conflicting, this area, this region going

beyond conflict, de-escalation, navigating a new Middle East.

And that is what these investments, of course, not just here in the UAE, but around this region, are about, particularly when it comes to AI and

advanced tech. The UAE Ambassador says that the commitment that they make to the U.S., of course, goes both ways, with partners like Microsoft,

Amazon, Oracle, Disney, remaining committed to the projects that they are working on here.

I have heard investors discussing how best to position for the recovery. How do you assess that?

[09:35:00]

DAOUD: Well, I think the way we assess it is that there is no single GCC. There's probably at least as far as economics is concerned, there are three

GCCs. There are the very rich countries in the GCC, the UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, a lot of wealth, a lot of hydrocarbon wealth, small populations.

Yes, this conflict may cause a cost, but there is an enormous amount of wealth that they can absorb this cost. There's the other end of the GCC,

you know, Bahrain and Oman, they're not as wealthy relative to the size of the population. Bahrain already had one of the largest debts to GDP ratios

in the world and mark us even before the conflict began.

There was a question about, not a question, there was an assumption, actually, that the neighbors of Bahrain in the GCC will actually give it

support. So that's sort of the second bucket in the GCC. And then there is Saudi Arabia, and let's remember, before even the conflict began, the big

story in Saudi Arabia was spending cuts.

There was a scale back of the large projects. There was a postponement of some events. There were the postponement of the Asian Winter Games and its

movement from Saudi to Kazakhstan. So, I think as far as economics is concerned, the GCC entered this conflict with different starting points,

and therefore when the conflict ends, they might pursue different paths.

ANDERSON: Yeah, making a very good point there. The reality of persistent high oil amid what is this effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz taking

a real toll, as you pointed out, particularly on these oil rich, oil exporting countries, oil slightly off the eyes of yesterday.

What do you make of the Goldman Sachs warning that we could see triple digit oil through 2027? And just explain the economic knock-on effect

should that happen.

DAOUD: I mean, we've already had a big oil shock. Let's remember the way when we entered this year, 2026, we were talking about the largest supply

glut on record, a lot of oil supplies. Today, we're talking about the biggest supply disruption in history. The world has turned very quickly

over the past three months.

And what do you get with higher oil prices? The movement from $65 oil to 110 now you get two things for the global economy. You get high prices for

everyone, all consumers, prices are going to go up.

ANDERSON: What number?

DAOUD: Sorry, we're talking about the world in general. We're talking about a big hit to a global sort of inflation. And actually, we track high

frequency data, and we're seeing the effect of that already in March. So that way, with high prices, you get a pivot from central banks.

And we saw two central banks yesterday in Europe, the ECB and the Bank of England shifting their position from rate cuts to possibly rate increases.

The other thing that oil prices does is that it shifts incomes. It shifts incomes from oil importers to oil exporters, and that creates winners and

losers.

If you're China, if you're India, if you're Europe, big importers of oil, you're losing some of your income because you have to spend more on energy.

If you're an oil exporter outside the Middle East, importantly, such as Russia, Canada or Norway, this war is actually good for you. This is

increasing your oil export revenue.

ANDERSON: Ziad, it's good to have you come back please. Your analysis is always valuable for us. Thank you very much indeed. You're watching

"Connect the World" with me Becky Anderson from our Middle East programming hubs here in Abu Dhabi. Ziad was in Dubai there. We will be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:40:00]

ANDERSON: Today is Eid Al-Fitr, the holiday mark in the end of Ramadan. Where Muslims across the region and around the world gather with family and

friends to celebrate the breaking of a month of fasting. You see worship is praying in Jerusalem to mark the day on the left of your screen.

And it is also Nowruz, the Persian New Year falling on the spring equinox, a day that marks renewal, the rejuvenation of life and the hope that a new

year brings. You see people in Tehran stocking up for their celebrations on the right. They will ring in that new year in exactly an hour from now.

Well, it is rare for these two occasions to fall on the same day. And this is not a normal year. Many here around this region are marking both with a

quiet uncertainty about what the days and weeks ahead will bring. But for me and my entire team, Eid Mubarak and Nowruz etan Pyrouz may these two

special occasions, deep rooted in the idea of renewal, help bring an end to the cycle of violence that has dominated these headlines.

And may the new year bring with it the wisdom to find another way. "World Sport" up after this short break. I'm back with more news in 15 minutes.

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