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Trump Threatens Iran's Power Plants, Bridges if No Deal; Trump Demands Iran Re-open Strait of Hormuz by 08:00 P.M. ET; Christian in Lebanon Endure Israeli Strikes on Easter; Villages in Southern Lebanon Hit Hard by Israeli Strikes; Oil Prices Remain High as Trump Intensifies Threats Against Iran; Dimon Warns Iran War Could Throw U.S. Economy into Recession. Aired 9-10a ET

Aired April 07, 2026 - 09:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[09:00:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST, CONNECT THE WORLD: Well, a whole civilization will die tonight. President Trump ramps up his threats against Iran if it

fails to meet his latest deadline. It is 09:00 a.m. there in Washington, it is 05:00 p.m. here in Abu Dhabi. I'm Becky Anderson from our Middle East

programming headquarters. You're watching "Connect the World".

The stock market in New York opens about 30 minutes from now. U.S. oil prices spiked after reports of strikes on military infrastructure on Kharg

Island, that, of course, is a central pillar of Iran's oil industry, and from where 90 percent of Iran's oil is exported. These strikes come less

than 12 hours from President Trump's deadline to cut a deal or open the Strait of Hormuz.

That spike in oil prices dragging these futures markets lower an indication of how they will open just less than half an hour from now. We will get

back to New York for the bell. Well, we begin with that breaking news. U.S. sources, including one from the White House, say that the U.S. has struck

military targets on Kharg Island, from which almost all of Iran's oil is exported.

An Iranian news agency reported explosions there earlier. Donald Trump has, on several occasions, threatened to bomb Kharg Island or to seize it. He is

now issued a stunning ultimatum on Truth Social if Iran doesn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 08:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

The U.S. President says, and I quote again, a whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don't want that to happen, but

it probably will. Iran has called President Trump's threats delusional and baseless in the past few hours, the Iranian President said more than 14

million Iranians are willing to give their lives to defend the country.

Well Paula Hancocks standing by in Abu Dhabi with the very latest developments this hour. Stephen Collinson has the reaction from Washington.

Paula, let's just start with you. What more do we know about the situation this hour on Kharg Island and what is going on inside Iran at this point?

PAULA HANCOCKS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: So, Becky, U.S. officials are telling us that it was military targets that have been struck on Kharg Island at this

point, pointing out, it's not the oil infrastructure. Now, as you say, this is a key economic lifeline for Iran.

There has been plenty of speculation, fueled in part by President Trump about whether or not they would put boots on the ground and take over this

island to try and use it as leverage to get the Strait of Hormuz open. Now, just a few weeks ago, just last month, they the U.S. president said that

they had struck military targets there.

At the time, U.S. Central Command said some 90 military targets were struck, naval mine storage facilities, missile storage bunkers, multiple

military sites to try and lessen their ability to be able to counter any kind of impact that the U.S. would want going forward. Now we're waiting to

hear more about what exactly has been targeted this time around, but it certainly is going to be watched very closely in Tehran.

Now, before this news broke, we had heard a number of Iranian officials reacting to what we heard from the U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday.

As you say, one of the officials calling the threats that we heard baseless and the president delusional. In fact, one Iranian security source telling

CNN that they believe that the U.S. President has lost control of this war, saying Iran wants the war to end, but not in the way or in on the timeline

that Trump is seeking.

Now we did have a response from the Revolutionary Guard spokesperson, which I want to play for you now.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

EBRAHIM ZOLFAQARI, SPOKESPERSON OF ISLAMIC REVOLUTIONARY GUARDS CORPS: The rude rhetoric, arrogance and baseless threats of the delusional U.S.

President, arising from the deadlock he faces it aimed at justifying the repeated defeats of the U.S. military, will have no effect on the

continuation of offensive and crushing operations by the fighters of Islam against U.S. and Israeli enemies, and will not repair the humiliation of

the United States in West Asia.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[09:05:00]

HANCOCKS: And Iran has had a very consistent message that if the U.S. President does give the order for civilian infrastructure, energy

infrastructure to be hit across Iran, they will reciprocate to U.S. interests and regional allies, which means, effectively the neighboring

countries and the Gulf nations.

So certainly, people here leaders here in the Gulf nations watching very closely to see what happens, Becky.

ANDERSON: Yeah, Stephen, let me bring you in just last hour. JD Vance, the Vice President, acknowledged these strikes, but he said they didn't mark a

change in strategy ahead of Trump's Tuesday night deadline. He's currently in Hungary, where he said Iran has a choice to act as a normal country,

reap the economic and trade benefits that will provide or it doesn't, and will face the consequences, given the grave threat that the president has

just issued. Where are we?

STEPHEN COLLINSON, CNN POLITICS SENIOR REPORTER: Well, JD Vance is talking about it's not a change of the strategy. I would challenge anybody to

pinpoint what the strategy actually is. Trump's latest statement and threat, first of all, is bizarre and disturbing coming from the most

powerful man in the world.

But I think it also shows that he has not that many tools in his tool books -- box, assuming he wants to get out of this war. Basically, what he does

is up threats. It's hard to see how he can make a bigger threat than he has just made. And the question then becomes, will he step back as he has

sometimes and often in the past, or will he put himself in such a position as he has no choice but to go forward with an escalation?

I think the big worry about Trump's presidency was always if he got into a cycle of escalation, but he put so much of his own ego and personal

prestige on the line. At some point, you get to a point where he has to do something cataclysmic just to save face for himself, and that's a very

dangerous situation.

At the same time, if you're trying to get the leaders of Iran to back down, threatening their civilization and their revolution, doesn't seem likely to

get them to the negotiating table. It seems only more likely to entrench them, given we know what we know about their mindset and their ideology.

So obviously, the next few hours will be crucial. Trump has a number of options. Does he go ahead and strike? Does he make up some kind of fake

breakthrough in negotiations, or does he do a halfway House action? And I think that's what we have to be looking out for in the next few hours.

ANDERSON: Stephen Collinson is in Washington. Paula is in Abu Dhabi. To both of you, thank you. Let me bring in CNN's National Security Analyst

Alex Plitsas. Alex, your assessment of what we have heard and seen in the past hour?

ALEX PLITSAS, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: Well, it seems to be a combination of physical actions, in terms of the infrastructure struck on

Kharg Island, which again, was military at this point. So, all accounts are that the oil and gas infrastructure and the docks were not struck, which

I'm hearing from U.S. officials, was a message to the Iranians in the lead up to the deadline that President Trump said, which expires in about 11

hours from right now.

The language that he used right now, though, was quite suggestive. And I think you know, this is something that may end up giving trouble with

lawyers down the road in terms of what can and can't be struck. So, when you go after infrastructure targets, such as bridges or energy

infrastructure, things like that.

If there's a clear military nexus to it, that's part of a strategy. Right, there's an argument that can be made as to whether or not those are legal.

But when you make broad based statements, you know, like that about, you know, ending civilizations, or if they appear to be punitive, right, that

will call the legality of those strikes into question.

And so that's something that staff judge advocate, attorneys on the military side, as well as White House Counsel and others, will have to look

at it in light of comments that have been made.

ANDERSON: Can I just read, for our viewers sake and for yours, a little more of this last Truth Social post in which he said, a whole civilization

will die tonight, never to be brought back. It's not what he wants to see, he says, but it will probably happen. He went on to say, now that we have

complete and total regime change where different, smarter and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe something revolutionary, wonderful can

happen.

Who knows? We will find out in the hours to come. I have spoken to many analyst who suggest that there is a change to those who are running the

country, as far as the sort of faces and names are concerned. But when Donald Trump calls this regime change, that is not what most people would

see as regime change.

[09:10:00]

And certainly, many will suggest they are different. They may be smarter, but when you ask, are they less radicalized? The answer is absolutely not.

Your assessment?

PLITSAS: Yes. So, from what I'm hearing, the folks that have seized power now at this point, is the IRGC, the intelligence branch of it. And then

Mojtaba Khamenei's inner circle, which includes Ghalibaf, the speaker. And then folks that are known as the Ramadan division guys, is how they're

being referred to.

And these are folks that served with Mojtaba Khamenei in the Ramadan division of the IRGC, who is the new Supreme Leader. That is when he served

in 87 to 88 at the tail end of the Iran-Iraq war. So, the IRGC is definitely the most hardcore element within the country.

It was for U.S. intelligence expected to take over if there were decapitation strikes or if the country were to fall. And even hearing from,

you know, from mediators in the region, when the Iranians launched their retaliatory strikes after Operation Midnight Hammer, the U.S. B2 strikes on

the nuclear facilities, it was largely symbolic, as it was pre coordinated.

There were 19 missiles that were fired at, you know, at the U.S. forward headquarters in Qatar, outside of Doha, you did Air Force Base. And in

speaking to folks, the political leadership in Iran had actually vetoed and said, we shouldn't be launching a Qatar.

And it was the IRGC who overstepped and said, no, absolutely not. This needs to happen, because that's where the U.S. base is. So even prior to

this, when the supreme leader was alive, the IRGC were the ones who were advocating for more of these offensive type actions.

They're also the ones running the assassination plots worldwide. They're responsible for all of the proxy groups that operate in the region that

engage in terrorist activity. So, these are definitely the hard-core actors who have taken over control of the government.

ANDERSON: Very briefly, the region where I am here in the UAE and the Gulf, did not ask for this war. Now that it has started, the Gulf countries have

absorbed an enormous amount of missile and drone attacks, and they insist that regional security must be paramount at this point.

And they insist, certainly from the UAE's point of view, that the Strait of Hormuz has to be part of any settlement, as do the nuclear file, the

missile capability, and indeed, the sort of malign proxy groups that we've seen around this region, though, most are less powerful these days.

I mean, at this point, Donald Trump will be hearing from this region. He is close to the leaders of this region. What do you believe they are telling

him?

PLITSAS: So, from what I'm hearing again, from mediators in many of the states that you just mentioned across the region, as well as their

representatives in Washington. This is actually one area where the Iranian strategy is backfiring, while the pressure on the straits, you know, seems

to be working their favor, at least that's what they believe at this point, attacking their neighbors has been a big problem.

So, I was in the region speaking to mediators two weeks before the war broke out, and there was a disagreement over the priorities. For the U.S.,

it was the nuclear program. For the Israelis, it was the ballistic missiles that they saw as an existential threat. And then for the regional partners

in the Gulf, it was actually the proxy forces.

But now, given the attacks, it's the drones and the missiles and their security that is the number one concern. We've seen changes. The Europeans

have stepped in to provide support from a defensive posture. The Ukrainians have been providing drone support, and they've made it quite clear that any

picture coming afterwards, as you've rightly characterized, has to include Gulf security in this.

They said that eventually they will forgive but they will never forget what the Iranians have done to them here. And what's even more problematic is

the Russians are broke after the war in Ukraine, the Chinese are largely not going to step in, the United States, unless there's a deal, is not

going to really help rebuild as far as we can tell.

We've asked Europe to increase spending from 2 to 5 percent of GDP for defense. And now they've attacked all of their Gulf neighbors who is going

to pay for reconstruction after this war is over. This was a very, very foolish move on the part of the Iranians.

ANDERSON: It's good to have you. Thank you very much indeed. It's a busy day, worrying times the hours to come feel very consequential. We will be

back after this quick break. You're watching "Connect the World".

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[09:15:00]

ANDERSON: Breaking news, new attacks on Iran's key oil hub. U.S. sources, including one from the White House, says that the U.S. has struck what it

is calling military targets on Kharg Island. You can see that on the map here, that critical Island handles about 90 percent of Iran's crude oil

exports.

Sits at the heart of the Iranian economy and its ability to raise revenue. One of the sources says that the strikes did not target the oil facilities

per se. The attack, though, comes just hours ahead of President Donald Trump's deadline for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or cut a deal.

Well, my next guest writes, quote, Gulf leaders are increasingly aware that Trump's unpredictability can be dangerous and that U.S. desires often clash

with their own. But pivoting away from the United States won't be easy. There is no other country that can replace it.

Joining me now live is Director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House Sanam Vakil with us this morning. And you have

written a piece that I hear reflected in conversation that I'm having around this region. Certainly, though in the UAE, there is an absolute

determination to double down on its relationship with the United States come what may at this point.

But given your research and given what you've learned as we consider the strikes on Kharg Island, the deadline, which is fast approaching for what

sounds very apocalyptic from Donald Trump at this point. What is your assessment of where we are at and what happens next?

SANAM VAKIL, DIRECTOR OF MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA PROGRAMME AT CHATHAM HOUSE: Well, good to be with you, Becky. I think a few things are on my

mind right now. First, with regards to the article, obviously, this is about Gulf positioning after this war, and as the article was entitled,

it's about preventing the next round of war.

Certainly, there is no doubt, particularly for the UAE, where Dr. Anwar Gargash, the presidential advisor, has made it abundantly clear, they are

doubling down, and they're doubling down again and again over for the short and medium term. But I would just highlight that.

Obviously, this war has really showcase that President Trump has put U.S. national interest and Israeli interests over that of the region. And this

war has been incredibly destabilizing for the Gulf states that are on the front lines of this war. There is not going to be pivot, any pivot away

from the United States anytime soon.

In fact, the defense systems are closely integrated. But what we try to argue, my colleague Neil Quilliam and I is that there need to be some steps

made across the Gulf states that have maybe a same strategic threat perception, but different tactics to integrate amongst themselves and to

work together much more closely, because these threats are not going to go away overnight.

And Donald Trump isn't necessarily going to resolve them, as we see, as you said, he's striking Kharg Island, and this war looks like it's hitting a

very dangerous escalation trajectory.

ANDERSON: And I think at some point I would love to talk to you about, you know what the long tail on this looks like beyond this conflict, whenever

we get beyond this conflict, what the 5, 10, 12 years, 15 years beyond this looks like, because from this region, you and I know this well, there has

been this sort of effort to see beyond escalation cycles and to navigate a new Middle East.

[09:20:00]

What that looks like is fascinating. It is a completely different model from that we've seen in the past. But as we talk about what's happening

today, Iran's President saying, quote, more than 14 million proud Iranians have so far registered to sacrifice their lives to defend Iran.

I too have been and will remain devoted to giving my life for Iran. We aren't seeing calls today for human chains around power plants and bridges

that are in the crosshairs Donald Trump says of U.S. strikes going forward. What does that language of mass sacrifice, tell you about how Iran is

preparing its population for what could come next?

VAKIL: Well, I think the Islamic Republic is trying to use President Trump's rhetoric and language to mobilize support across the population. We

do know that the Islamic Republic does have a percentage of support estimated between 15 to 20 percent of the population.

We know this from past voter turnout for hardliners, for example, and because President Trump is using such inflammatory and personal rhetoric

and really showcasing that this war is going to harm ordinary Iranians. The Islamic Republic is trying to step in and create this mobilization.

They tried to recruit people from across the country to step up and showcase their support as well. This should not -- we should be able to

differentiate between support for Iran and support for the Islamic Republic. It's very hard to see that in the fog of war. But I think that

Iranian, more broadly, feel very frustrated and passionate about Iran.

And perhaps that can't quickly and easily be translated to that passion for the Islamic Republic. This is a regime that faces huge legitimacy

challenges and regular protests.

ANDERSON: Yeah, absolutely. And you're absolutely right to point out Iran isn't one person. It is a, you know, it is not monolithic. There are many

Iranians with very different sort of attitudes towards this regime. If this deadline passes without a deal, and we have three options, scenarios,

really, don't we a deal before the deadline, which seems unlikely, the extension of the deadline at this point, which I guess, could happen.

And then, of course, this sort of slightly apocalyptic scenario that Donald Trump is laying out in the past hour, if this deal pass -- if the deadline

for deal passes, what are regional leaders preparing for behind the scenes? I just wonder what you're hearing about contingency planning for a wider

escalation at this point.

VAKIL: Well, I mean, it's hard to see us getting to a deal by this deadline. I think the fudge, if it should emerge would be through this, the

behind-the-scenes scramble to keep communication channels alive. The problem is that President Trump just, you know, press go on this very

inflammatory tweet that you know intends to eradicate Iran.

And so, you know, what the Iranian President has also posted is that, you know, also bring the -- are off. So, I think the region is very much

holding their breath. The retaliation expected from Iran is going to be, I think, very damaging and not limited. What regional leaders are doing, are

trying to find the next sort of inflection point to bring down the temperature.

This is, you know, by all standards, a real key moment for not just Iran, Iranian people, but I guess for the whole Middle East. Nobody is winning

this war. There are only losers in this war. So, it is about building the conditions to bring the Iranians and the Americans to the negotiating

table, but to be supported by all of those that have been impacted by this war, and that is Gulf states for but also, more broadly, also countries

that have been targeted by Iran.

ANDERSON: Yeah, absolutely, including Israel, of course, I do just want to close and Sanam, thank you. I want to close this interview by just pointing

out that the Qatar Foreign Ministry spokesperson, who is also, of course, a spokesperson for the prime minister, said the following just before we saw

this Truth Social post just before the reports started emerging of the strikes on Kharg Island.

[09:25:00]

He said, my quote, we are close to the point where the situation in the region could spiral out of control, the words of the Qatar Foreign Ministry

spokesman today. Well, the war with Iran is taking its toll on Lebanon, of course, where Israel is fighting the Iranian proxy group, Hezbollah.

The Israeli military is ordering the evacuation of dozens of villages in the south as it looks to create what it called a buffer zone from Hezbollah

attacks. Lebanon's Health Ministry reports nearly 1500 people have been killed since March the second including at least 130 children.

Israel says 11 of its soldiers have been killed in Southern Lebanon. Well, the fighting has not kept the region's Christian communities from

practicing their faith. CNN's Nada Bashir with this report.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NADA BASHIR, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Easter mass in time. For a moment as the church bells ring, the roar of Israeli fighter jets overhead

is drowned out. Awoken on Sunday by the news of yet more air strikes on the Southern Lebanese city these Christian families have not been deterred,

gathering, not only in worship, but in defiance.

BASHIR: You can see the church here is still full for Easter Sunday despite the evacuation orders, despite the nearby bombings that are taking place.

The Christian community here is still staying put.

BASHIR (voice-over): Located south of the Litani River, Tyre has been engulfed by an Israeli military assault with the purported aim of ridding

the region of Iran backed Hezbollah forces. The U.N. says more than a million people. Around 20 percent of Lebanon's entire population have now

been displaced across the country.

Homes in the south either destroyed or left empty. Karen Farhat fled her home in Qanaa with her family. Neighboring buildings said to have been

destroyed by Israeli strikes. The threats of an Israeli advance into Tyre and even a potential military occupation of the south has left their future

here uncertain.

KAREN FARHAT, DISPLACED FROM QANAA, SOUTHERN LEBANON: If that were to happen, then that's it. We would have to escape and flee our land. We, as

adults, could manage. But these are children.

BASHIR (voice-over): Others refuse to entertain the fort.

MARWAN AL-JOUNI, RESIDENT OF TYRE, LEBANON: I'm a son of Tyre. It's impossible for me to leave Tyre no matter what happens. I am Tyre, and I

will stay holding on to this place forever, until my last breath.

BASHIR (voice-over): But as this community, like so many in the south, puts its trust in faith. There is also a growing call for the world to stand

with the people of Lebanon. Archbishop George Iskander says this is about protecting innocent lives and the history of this ancient city.

GEORGES ISKANDER, ARCHBISHOP, MELKITE GREEK CATHOLIC CHURCH: I don't think the world should just stand by watching this tragedy unfold. The

international community is one family. They should intervene to protect the innocent who are unable to defend themselves.

We are peaceful people, as you can see, we do not have weapons. We don't have fighters.

BASHIR (voice-over): Across the south, many Christian villages have so far been spared the worst of Israel's aerial assault, but here in Tyre,

communities live, side by side. You don't have to go far to feel the full impact of this war. CNN obtained permission from Hezbollah to report in

these areas.

BASHIR: This building was completely destroyed in an Israeli air strike just 24 hours ago. This was a nine-story building now completely turned to

rubble. Of course, the Israeli military says it is targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. Book we can see around us the residential buildings, the

homes, the shops, the hospital just meters away, a reminder that there are simply no safe spaces for many of these families who are coming under

almost daily bombardment now.

BASHIR (voice-over): Remnants of people's lives lay scattered on the ground, children's toys, clothing. This area is largely empty now, those

who stay say they have no choice.

JAWAD AL-SALEEM, TYRE, LEBANON RESIDENT: Where can we go? If you want to leave, you need money. You need lots of things. My family is here, but we

can't leave. This is our land. We can't leave it behind.

BASHIR (voice-over): The connection people here feel to this city, to their land, is hard to overstate. These church bells have been ringing entire for

centuries, withstanding walls and even a three-year Israeli occupation in the 1980s.

[09:30:00]

But with no end in sight to this latest conflict. The future of this historic city and its people, lies uncertain. Nada Bashir, CNN, entire

Southern Lebanon.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANDERSON: Well, that is the opening bell on Wall Street being run today by the mining group OceanaGold. We're going to take a very short break. Back

with how these markets open after that. The indication certainly for the three main markets were that they would open lower. That is, after a spike

in U.S. oil prices, I'll explain why after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANDERSON: Welcome back. I'm Becky Anderson and Abu Dhabi. You are watching "Connect the World". U.S. sources say that the U.S. has struck military

targets on Kharg Island, from which almost all of Iran's oil is exported. U.S. official says oil facilities there were not struck, very specifically.

U.S. President Donald Trump posting on social media, quote, a whole civilization will die tonight, adding probably he's threatened dire

consequences if Iran doesn't reopen the Strait of Hormuz by 08:00 p.m. Eastern Time tonight. Well, Israel is targeting railways, bridges and

highways across Iran, a source has told CNN.

The IDF this morning, issued a warning to Iranians on X despite the site being blocked in Iran, the statement read, your presence on trains and near

railway lines endangers your life. Well, CNN's Chief Global Affairs Correspondent Matthew Chance is in Doha in Qatar.

And the Qatar Foreign Ministry spokesman holding a press conference today, and his top line out of that, I found really quite alarming. Matthew, just

explain.

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN CHIEF GLOBAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, that's right. I mean, look, I mean, we're talking in this news conference that we just

went to a couple of hours ago, and it was, you know, as this threat, this deadline approaches from President Trump to really escalate the conflict

and strike civilian infrastructure inside Iran.

The Qatari Foreign Ministry spokesman was questioned about this repeatedly, and he made this point several times. He basically said, look, you know, we

are close to the point where the situation in the region could spiral out of control. And what he was doing there is expressing concerns that if

Israel -- if Iran's civilian infrastructure is indeed struck as President Trump is threatened.

[09:35:00]

That Iran is likely to make good on its vow to retaliate in kind against Gulf Arab states and to hit their energy infrastructure, energy and gas

production facilities, all of these things which are extremely vulnerable to Iranian attack and have, in fact, to some extent, already been subject

to drone and missile strikes throughout the course of the past five or so weeks since the war in Iran began.

But an escalation of those efforts to hit that infrastructure could have an absolutely devastating impact on the economies of the region. That's the

real fear and anxiety that I think probably leaders in all of these Gulf states are feeling at the moment. What happens to them if this situation

Iran escalates?

And of course, that will have a broader impact as well on the global economy. So, it's something that matters and is of concern to everybody,

Becky.

ANDERSON: Yeah, good to have you, Matt. Thank you very much indeed. Matthew has just been to that press conference that he was reporting on. Let's see

how stocks are getting on after the open on Wall Street. This is the story half of 1 percent lower there, or there abouts for all three of those major

markets.

I have to tell you, that's at least a one, if not bigger, swing from what we saw about an hour and a half before these markets were set to open

today, as soon as we heard the strikes on Kharg Island, oil prices spiked. Prices remain high. Investors counting down to Donald Trump's Tuesday night

deadline to intensify that tax against Iran.

The U.S. President now saying, quote, a whole civilization will die tonight if the Strait of Hormuz isn't reopened by 08:00 p.m. Eastern Time, not

something he says he wants. Sadly, it seems that is what he is positing, should Iran not reopen the strait or cut a deal?

Meanwhile, one of the most prominent voices on Wall Street has a warning about the U.S. economy. JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, says that the

ongoing war with Iran could trigger a recession. He's pointing to the potential for persistent inflation and higher interest rates, which he

calls the skunk at the party.

In his annual letter to shareholders, Dimon is also quick to highlight the sturdiness of the world's biggest economy. I want to bring in Joe

Brusuelas, Principal and Chief Economist at RSM U.S., part of the global business advisory group of RSM International.

Good to have you. Short term pain for long term gain is how the Trump Administration would have investors and the U.S. consumer frame, what is

going on at present, a very much more alarming sort of assessment from the CEO of JP Morgan, where are you at in your thinking?

JOE BRUSUELAS, PRINCIPAL AND CHIEF ECONOMIST AT RSM U.S.: So, we've moved up the probability of recession over the next 12 months from 20 percent to

30 percent over the past month, based on the damage caused by the war. Right now, in the United States, the economy is absorbed the hit in a

fairly significant way.

People are out spending, even though they're not happy. The price of gasoline is clearly increased sharply, as is the price per barrel of oil.

But you know, demand relatively inelastic, especially here in the United States, Americans will absorb it in a very unhappy and noisy way, but

they're continuing to spend.

Now we've identified a point of demarcation, though there's a real difference between 100 to $110 a barrel and 125 to 140. At $125 a barrel,

we do think that demand destruction begins to accelerate and spread out across the American economy. And then at $140 a barrel, we will likely

increase the odds of a recession to over 50 percent over the next 12 months.

And that's at the point where things will get really serious economically, at least here in the United States, I have to say, though, we are intensely

aware of what's going on in Australia and Asia, as price rationing and energy shortages are a daily fact of life that's going to roll west.

Clearly, we can see it in India, and we expect, probably by the end of the week, and the next week, they'll start to show up in a more pronounced way

in Europe.

ANDERSON: So, you do see an increased risk for recession at this point. Just remind our viewers what that means realistically?

BRUSUELAS: What it means is that, yeah, we could have a recession, but with the United States right, you're dealing with the $30 trillion dynamic and

resilient beast.

[09:40:00]

It's just going to be able to absorb the shocks, just by density, size and scale. That doesn't mean the economy won't slow down as a matter of fact.

We revised down our growth forecast to below trend. Trends 1.8 percent United States, we're going to be closer to 1.5 to 1.7, and that's just off

the initial impact from the start of the war.

Now, when we're speaking globally, though, I do think it's highly likely we're going to see a recession that is growth well below 3 percent in my

estimation, it'll be 2.2 percent and you'll see global inflation pick up to around 3.5 percent. So, we're going to be operating on different tracks for

a while.

But again, I want to make this very clear that big, dynamic and resilient in this economy can absorb things, but only up to a point. At a certain

point, it too will be at risk of contraction. And I think that the pricing you want to watch out there is Brent crude -- Brent crude, of course, Texas

Intermediate.

The latter, which is the one we use here in the United States, is trading at around $115 a barrel. I think problems started $125 a barrel. Then they

get really serious at --

ANDERSON: Remarkable. It's good to have you, Joe. Thank you very much indeed. Your perspective incredibly important to us. Well, U.S. Vice

President JD Vance has been at the center of negotiations with Iran, but on a critical day in the war, he is in Hungary in Europe.

We're going to get you live to Budapest for more on that visit, and what he has said while he has been there, up next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANDERSON: Well, the critical point in the war with Iran, and days ahead of Hungary's national elections, U.S. Vice President JD Vance is in Budapest

today in an effort to boost Hungary's Far Right Prime Minister Viktor Orban. During bilateral meetings just hours ago, Vance told Orban that he

wanted to come and wish him good luck ahead of Sunday's vote.

Hungary's Trump endorsed prime minister is facing a huge test of his 16- year grip on power as he trails in the polls. Well, joining us now from Budapest is CNN's Senior International Correspondent Melissa Bell. All been

facing the biggest challenge to his leadership in years.

We should talk about what extent a visit from Vance might help. Before we do that, though, let's talk about the story of the day of course, because

the vice president was asked about what is going on Kharg Island and with Donald Trump's thinking about what happens next on this war with Iran.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JD VANCE, U.S. VICE PRESIDENT: My understanding, you know, having talked to Pete and General Caine about this, is that we were going to strike some

military targets on Kharg Island.

[09:45:00]

I believe we have done so. The president's deadline has been followed by us and everybody else, and he said very clearly, we're not going to strike

energy and infrastructure targets until the Iranians either make a proposal that we can get behind or don't make a proposal. But he's given them until

Tuesday at 8 o'clock, so I don't think the news in Kharg Island is represents a change in strategy.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Melissa.

MELISSA BELL, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Becky, that was fascinating to listen to. This was, of course, just after he had arrived

the vice president here in Budapest, speaking after this bilateral meeting alongside Viktor Orban to bring him his support.

There'll be a big another big meeting today, late today, the big speech that he's to make here in Budapest at a stadium in the city. But of course,

the man who is believed to be at the heart of these negotiations, or at least a key player in them, was asked as he arrived, about the very latest.

You heard him there suggest that the latest attacks on Kharg Island were all part of the strategy, but he appeared really to be following events as

they went along in that press conference. He went on to explain that the deadline was still ahead and that he believed that there would be further

negotiations over the course the next few hours.

It could take time, he explained, for the messages to go back and forth, but he believed that there would be further negotiations with the regime in

Tehran ahead of that deadline, Becky.

ANDERSON: Good to have you. Thank you. All right. Melissa Bell is in Budapest. Artemis II crew members are heading back to Earth after what has

been their historic flight around the Moon. Monday's lunar fly by took the astronauts more than 250,000 miles away from Earth, or some 406,000

kilometers.

That is a human record. The crew also enjoyed a total solar eclipse for nearly an hour from their perspective in the Orion spacecraft. And they

witnessed what's known as an Earth rise and photographed parts of the moon never seen before by humans. CNN's Ed Lavandera brings us all the details

from Mission Control in Texas.

ED LAVANDERA, CNN SENIOR U.S. NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: For roughly seven hours, the crew of Artemis II made history flying around the Moon for the

first time in more than 50 years, witnessing up close well 4000 miles away, some of the areas of the moon that have never been seen by human eyes and

documented with thousands and thousands of photos that the crew took turns snapping as they were flying around the Moon.

And what really struck out was listening to the descriptions that the astronauts were sending back to Mission Control, where they talked about

the various colors, the browns and the greens that they spotted on the Moon surface, the terrain and the ruggedness of some parts of the Moon, as well

different craters that had never been seen before.

All of these types of descriptions were just simply riveting to listen to. And on the end of the day, they come around the moon and they see a solar

eclipse that at one point they could see the sun lighting up the back side of the Moon, the Earth's glow lighting up the front.

The Moon was completely lit up. And Victor Glover, one of the astronauts, described this as a moment like straight out of science fiction. They had a

conversation with the President of the United States. And this is what and how they described what their day was like.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REID WISEMAN, ARTEMIS II COMMANDER: Proud to be a part of -- I have to tell you, as we came around the near side of the Moon, seeing all the sights

that we've seen from Earth for all of our lives, but we're seeing them from a different perspective. And then we started to get a glimpse of the --

And we saw sites oriental sites that no human has ever seen before, not even in Apollo. And that was amazing for us. And then the surprise of the

day, we just came out of an eclipse where the sun -- Moon and the entire dark Moon about that big right out the window that we were watching, we

could see the corona of the sun, and then we could see the planet, train line up and -- Mars.

And all of us commented how excited we are to watch this nation and this planet become a two planet species.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

LAVANDERA: Now the Artemis II crew is on its journey home, and that is a journey that will take another four days. The crew will splash down off the

Coast of California Friday night. Ed Lavandera, CNN at Johnson Space Center in Houston.

ANDERSON: Remarkable stuff, isn't it? Artemis astronauts made history on Monday, going farther into space than any human has gone before. They got a

special wakeup call from the legendary astronaut Jim Lovell. He was one of the first astronauts to orbit the Moon aboard Apollo 8, and led the Apollo

13 crew to safety after a disaster in space.

Lovell died last year at the age of 97, but before his death, he recorded a message for the Artemis crew. Have a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JIM LOVELL, GEMINI VII, GEMINI XII, APOLLO 8, AND APOLLO 13 ASTRONAUT: Hello, Artemis II. This is Apollo astronaut Jim Lovell.

[09:50:00]

Welcome to my old neighborhood. I'm proud to pass that torch on to you as you swing around the Moon and play the groundwork for missions to Mars, for

the benefit of all. The whole neighborhood. I'm proud to pass that torch on to you as you swing around the moon and play the groundwork for missions to

the mark.

For the benefit of all it's a historic day, and I know how busy you'll be. But don't forget to enjoy the view. So, Reid, Victor and Christina and

Jeremy and all the great teams supporting you, good luck and Godspeed from all of us here on the good Earth.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Well, still to come, President Trump issues a brand-new apocalyptic threat to Iran. Our coverage continues after this.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANDERSON: Well, more now on, what is the latest extraordinary ultimatum from U.S. President Donald Trump, if Iran doesn't cut a deal or reopen the

Strait of Hormuz by 08:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Tuesday. Posting on Truth Social, he says, quote, and I'm going to bring this up on the screen.

You can read the whole thing. A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again, he wrote. I don't want that to happen, but it

probably will. However, now that we have complete and total regime change where different, smarter and less radicalized minds prevail, maybe

something revolutionary, wonderful can happen.

Who knows? We will find out tonight, he said. CNN's Betsy Klein joins us now from the White House. Couple of hours ago that we saw this first post,

and since he posted this threat, have we had anything further from the White House, Betsy?

BETSY KLEIN, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: No, not just yet, but we have seen very starkly different rhetoric from President Trump and from Vice

President JD Vance today, in the lead up to that 08:00 p.m. deadline. President Trump has been steadily ramping up his rhetoric toward Iran over

the past few days, including that F bomb he launched over the weekend.

He warned that tonight will be quote one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the world. Of course, diplomatic

discussions are ongoing. Vice President Vance along with Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and the president's son in law, Jared Kushner, are leading

those efforts for the U.S., being mediated by Pakistan, Egypt and Turkey with Iran, but Trump and Vance both laying out two different paths here.

[09:55:00]

Number one, the president in his post saying that a whole civilization will die tonight, not a regime, not a nuclear weapons plan, but a whole

civilization. Vance, for his part, with a softer tone, says it's possible that Iran doesn't come to the table warning of worsening economic

conditions.

And then separately, President Trump saying, in his mind, it's possible that different, smarter and less radicalized minds prevail. Vance for his

part, saying that Iran can choose to be what he described as a normal country, and there could be economic benefits to that. But all of this

leading up to a very volatile moment for this five-week-old conflict.

The Trump Administration now issuing this key warning with strikes in Kharg Island, that is that key oil hub in the Persian Gulf. Perhaps a preview of

what is to come at 8 o'clock Eastern time tonight, if a deal is not reached, President Trump saying that power plants, bridges, other critical

infrastructure will be targeted.

He's also downplayed concerns about war crimes. He says, in his view, the Iranians are willing to suffer for their freedom, Becky.

ANDERSON: Betsy Klein is at the White House. It's good to have you, Betsy. Thank you. We are going to take a very short break back with the second

hour of this show after this. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

END