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U.S.-Israel War with Iran; U.S. Blockade Applies to All Ships at Iran Ports; Pope Leo Arrives in Cameroon; What One Epstein Survivor Found in the Files; IAEA Warns of North Korea Nuclear Expansion. Aired 10-11a ET

Aired April 16, 2026 - 10:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[10:00:00]

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BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST (voice-over): Welcome to the second hour of the show from our Middle East programming headquarters here in Abu Dhabi. I'm

Becky Anderson, where the time is just after 6:00 in the evening.

U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is warning Iran to make a deal or else fighting will resume. He said the Navy blockade of Iranian ports has been a

successful pressure point and will continue.

You're looking at the moment Israel struck a town today in Lebanon. The war in southern Lebanon in full swing as proposed talks between the Lebanese

president and the Israeli prime minister have faltered.

And Pope Leo is warning of a world ravaged by, quote, "tyrants" in the wake of the Trump administration's attacks on him. Standing by for his mass just

minutes from now in Cameroon.

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ANDERSON: "Choose wisely."

That warning from Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth to Iran earlier today. He is urging Tehran to, quote, "choose a deal which is within your grasp or face

the consequences."

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

PETE HEGSETH, U.S. SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: You, Iran, can choose a prosperous future, a golden bridge and we hope that you do. For the people

of. Iran. In the meantime and for as long as it takes, we will maintain this

blockade, successful blockade.

But if Iran chooses poorly, then they will have a blockade and bombs dropping on infrastructure, power and energy.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Well, it's important to note Pakistan's army chief remains in the Iranian capital, trying to put together a second round of talks between

Tehran and Washington. The temporary ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran runs out in less than a week.

Well, that truce is being tied to a push for diplomacy between Lebanon and Israel, as the IDF continues bombing Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. CNN is

hearing that the Lebanese president, Joseph Aoun, declined to speak to the Israeli prime minister earlier today.

That comes after U.S. president Donald Trump said the two leaders were set to hold historic talks. CNN's Oren Liebermann spoke to me in the last hour.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

OREN LIEBERMANN, CNN JERUSALEM BUREAU CHIEF AND CORRESPONDENT: Any sorts of communications between the leaders of Israel and Lebanon are a big

moment, but it very much seems like Trump jumped the gun here.

We were told by an Israeli source that Netanyahu was expected at some point today to speak with President Joseph Aoun in Lebanon. But then we heard

from Lebanese officials who said there is no such call happening and they are not yet ready to engage in a direct call between Aoun and Netanyahu.

Earlier this week, there were direct talks between ambassadors under the auspices of the United States, with Secretary of State, Marco Rubio leading

these talks. And he said there would be more talks ahead, but it's not yet at the point where Lebanon is ready to engage in a direct call between

Netanyahu and Aoun.

And that just shows you the difficulties of negotiations here, especially as there is a war going on and we have seen continued Israeli strikes in

Southern Lebanon, according to the Ministry of Public Health there, 18 people were killed in the last 24 hours. And we have seen some continued

rocket and drone fire from the Iranian proxy Hezbollah coming into Northern Israel.

So, this remains very much a hot war. Now the U.S. has pressed Israel to scale back on its strikes. We have not seen Israeli strikes in the capital

of Beirut for the past several days. Nevertheless, we continue to see strikes elsewhere, and that's where this difficulty comes in.

Lebanon has said they will not negotiate under fire, whereas Israel has made clear it will not stop the war for negotiations. And that is the

scenario in which the U.S. is trying to make very difficult progress here. So noteworthy that they thought they had a direct call between the leaders

of Israel and Lebanon, but it doesn't seem like that's happening right now.

We'll see if U.S. pressure can change that scenario.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANDERSON: Well, Iran's parliament speaker says, in his words, "a ceasefire in Lebanon is as important as a ceasefire in Iran."

CNN's Nic Robertson live for us from Islamabad, where the U.S. vice president JD Vance, of course, led that U.S. delegation last weekend in

talks with Iran and where a second round would likely be held. That's our understanding.

Nic, how does this snag in direct Israeli-Lebanon talks impact, if at all, the diplomatic effort to end the U.S.-Iran war, led by Pakistan, where you

are?

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN SENIOR DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Yes, Becky, first of all, I think maybe I should just say to the audience, if we look a little dark

here, that's because there's another power cut in this city. Some parts of the city getting power, others not. That's all part and parcel of the of

the Strait of Hormuz being closed.

[10:05:00]

Power, energy supplies, gas not getting to this country, being expensive. You're getting power cuts.

But to your question, it plays into it. We heard both from the foreign ministry briefing here this morning in Pakistan and we've heard from

Iranian officials that the ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah is a key part of how they view an overall ceasefire between Iran and the United

States and Israel.

And have wanted and have been pushing for it to be part and parcel of that. So when you have these talks going on or the talks that were going on late

last night between Lebanese and Israeli officials in Washington, the expectation that that was going to be diplomacy pushed ahead locally in the

region between Israeli and Lebanese figures.

At the same time that you have the high-level Pakistani delegation inside of Tehran meeting with the top Iranian negotiator, the speaker of

parliament, Ghalibaf.

So all of these things you see the timing here, right?

Because they're all part and parcel of the same bigger picture. And we see the difficulties in trying to -- in trying to land it all, as Oren has just

been outlining there.

And I think earlier when we heard from Pete Hegseth, Secretary of Defense, speaking at the Pentagon, laying out how he views Iran's military as being

decimated and on its back foot and desperate for a desperate for a deal, I think its fair to say that Iran would like to get a deal.

But Iran is portraying its military as not a busted flush. In fact, Iranian media portraying, when the Pakistani delegation, the field marshal, flew in

to Tehran yesterday on a small civilian jet, it was escorted by a number of Iranian fighter aircraft.

Then this is the Iranians essentially saying, look, we can put our aircraft up in the air, we can coordinate them. We've got command and control. And

to the lines coming from the U.S. Defense Secretary that Iran's navy lies at the bottom of the ocean, the Iranians are not denying a lot of their

navy has been sunk.

But what they are saying is, yes, but look how far away from Iran's shores the United States is positioning its own Navy, hundreds of kilometers.

So you get this testy, robust pushback from the Iranian side about where they stand militarily. Undoubtedly, they've taken a huge beating from

Israel in the United States. So the diplomacy is going on.

But I think both sides are showing us the muscle and intent that if they need to return to the battlefield, they will. But I think at the moment,

this is still the opportunity for diplomacy, however fraught and however difficult it may be.

No one thought it would be easy. And it's going at a speed that normally wouldn't be anticipated. But it does seem to be in process. How much its

stuttering, we don't know.

ANDERSON: Yes. Yes. Fascinating. And we must underscore the importance of the army chief being in Tehran today. He is an extremely influential

character, much applauded, by the way, by Donald Trump, who he has a very good relationship with.

I did speak earlier with the former foreign minister of Pakistan, who underscored that diplomacy is a process that takes time. Let's just have a

listen to that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BILAWAL BHUTTO ZARDARI, FORMER PAKISTANI FOREIGN MINISTER: Pakistan is certainly taking all our efforts to achieve and sustain peace. I don't

think that diplomacy is an event. It's a process. There is trust deficit between the parties but, through diplomacy, we hope to, at least, find a

middle ground.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Pete Hegseth has just said that Iran is incentivized to keep this ceasefire going.

So what kind of progress do we ultimately believe Pakistan is making with Tehran?

Can we just remind our viewers about the relationship between Islamabad and Tehran?

ROBERTSON: Yes, obviously, they share a border. They have a mutual history of a trade relationship. They have mutual tensions, particularly focused

around Balochistan and in the southwestern corner of Pakistan.

And though tensions have flared, you know, they shared -- they exchanged missiles for a day early 2024. But generally speaking, they have a good

relationship. Of course, its a relationship that's tempered by the fact that Pakistan has a strong and a military relationship, financial and

military relationship with Saudi Arabia.

And although Saudi Arabia has in the past couple of years before the war in Gaza actually put its diplomatic relationship with Iran on a slightly

better footing. So it's a complex picture but it is a country in this region that's proximate, it's close to Iran. They share, you know, a degree

of culture.

[10:10:00]

They share a degree of religion, 15 percent to 20 percent of the population of Pakistan are Shia rather than Sunni Muslims. Shia, of course, the

majority in Iran. So there are cultural religious ties there as well.

But I think when it comes to this process of diplomacy, I think there's a new world order of diplomacy that we're in. And that's President Trump's

world order of diplomacy. And it doesn't look like the old world order, where diplomats get lots of times to have lots of time to hammer things

out.

This is the world order where President Trump really sets a very high bar, expects immediate results and presses his case in very businesslike terms

and that his cabinet follow through -- his vice president, his Secretary of Defense, his secretary of state follow through -- in the same terms.

And this is not the world that Iran is used to dealing with. Iran is used to prevarications, ambiguity, letting things run, taking their time, coming

back a long time later.

I mean, one of the advantages of having the Pakistani negotiators in Tehran is that ability to talk directly and closely with some of the other figures

behind the scenes to get answers quickly.

One of the difficulties I understood in the leadup to the first round of direct talks was it was very difficult or slow, at least for Pakistan, to

get responses from Iran, not least because they run the war. But this process should be slightly shorter right now.

That fits more with the style of President Trump's diplomacy. Even so, his speed is not what this region is used to.

ANDERSON: It's good to have you there, Nic. Your experience as our international diplomatic editor is so important to us at this point. So

thank you, Nic. I assume sticking it out in Islamabad because we have no idea what will happen in the next couple of days.

But talk is that if there are these talks for a second round, they are most likely to be there. Thank you.

I want to get to Washington then and to get the view from there. CNN's Zachary Cohen joining us live from D.C.

And, Zach, in the past couple of hours, we got a very detailed picture from the Pentagon briefing about how the U.S. is imposing its naval blockade.

And that's been a question that I know a lot of our viewers will have had. Many of us will have had as well. So just break down what we understand to

be the situation there.

ZACHARY COHEN, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Yes, Becky. General Dan Caine, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs, really reiterating today that

the U.S. Naval blockade is really -- applies to stopping ships from going into and leaving from Iranian ports.

He made a very key distinction when he said the U.S. is not blockading the Strait of Hormuz but rather the Iranian coastline and Iranian ports. Of

course, the U.S. and Iran have acknowledged that Iran is threatening vessels going in and out of the strait itself.

But General Caine also making clear that the U.S. is pursuing any vessels that are providing material support to Iran from other regions as well. So

the U.S. Naval presence and the pursuit of trying or the effort to try to choke off the Iranian economy, so to speak, by using naval assets, really

not just applying to this blockade.

But it was really interesting to listen to General Caine really walk through the steps of how this U.S. blockade functions. And he said that it

usually starts with a low-level officer on the deck of one of these U.S. destroyers, who will get on a speakerphone and shout out to a vessel that

they believe is trying to cross the blockade.

Take a listen to what General Caine said today when he was describing what comes next.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEN. DAN CAINE, CHAIRMAN, U.S. JOINT CHIEFS OF STAFF: These ships are armed to the teeth with surface-to-air missiles, land attack cruise

missiles, anti-ship missiles, anti-submarine rockets, torpedoes, five-inch naval guns, multiple electronic warfare systems, embarked helicopters.

Extending the reach and capability of each and every one of these destroyers.

Our sailors maintain a constant watch, maneuvering the ship tactically and safely through always congested water space. And there is a lot out there.

It is like driving a sports car through a supermarket parking lot on a payday weekend with thousands of kids in that parking lot as you attempt to

maneuver through there to get to that ship that would attempt to run that blockade.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

COHEN: So 13 times since the U.S. implemented this blockade, General Caine says they have had to warn a vessel to turn around or prepare to be

boarded. That's something that he says the U.S. Navy has not had to do yet to this stage but is prepared to if needed.

And has additional ways that it can use force as well to try to stop these ships if need be.

[10:15:00]

Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth saying today as well that the U.S. is prepared to maintain this blockade for as long as it takes. I think there

is some question as to how long the U.S. Navy can actually continue to stop these ships from coming in and out of Iranian ports.

But unless Iran agrees to a deal, according to Hegseth, this blockade will remain in place.

ANDERSON: Good to have you, Zach. Thank you.

Well, as we've been reporting, the U.S. Defense Secretary has warned the Iranian regime to, in his words, "choose wisely" or face a continued U.S.

blockade of Iranian ports. And this all comes as Iran threatens to shut down all shipping operations in the Persian Gulf, the sea of Oman and the

Red Sea.

They're also warning Yemen's Houthi rebels to stay out of this conflict, saying the U.S. military has the upper hand when it comes to naval

operations. Have a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HEGSETH: Houthis thus far, they have stayed out of it, which, of course, we think is a good decision by them.

And I think it's a reflection of the fact that, over a year ago in Operation Rough Rider, we were -- had an ongoing and intense campaign that

demonstrated American capabilities, which has them hesitating to want to do something on that strait, which I think would be a poor choice.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Well, European forces maintain their own naval operation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden to help secure the safe and secure flow of

shipping and trade. Vasileios Gryparis is the commander of the E.U. Naval Force Operation ASPIDES, joins us now from its headquarters.

It is great to have you, sir. Thank you very much indeed for joining us. Iran's military has warned that if this U.S. blockade continues, it would

not allow any exports or imports to continue, both in the Strait of Hormuz waters and the Red Sea under such conditions.

How seriously are you taking that threat and how are you preparing in the Red Sea?

REAR ADM. VASILEIOS GRYPARIS, COMMANDER, EUROPEAN UNION NAVAL FORCE: Good afternoon, Ms. Anderson. I'm deeply honored for the invitation and thank

you for hosting me on your channel.

Of course, we are deeply concerned about the evolution of that and we are prepared for that. First of all, allow me to state some facts about

operational speeds in order to avoid any misconceptions of what we are doing here.

So as you are aware, the Operation ASPIDES reflects the European political will to address the Red Sea crisis driven by non-state actors, actions that

deteriorated maritime security along this very essential trade route.

The operation was established on the 24th of February of the 19th February of '24 and, through its dedicated mandate, this to protect global common

goods and for that to contribute to the freedom of navigation, protection of seafarers and, of course, the security of commercial marine traffic in

full respect of international law.

So ASPIDES has a fully defensive and de-escalatory posture. And this is why we don't fight the Ansar Allah movement or otherwise known as Houthis. So

the operation has specific limitations and uses kinetic actions only in the high seas, in the international airspace when it is absolutely necessary.

And then it has always to be proportionate.

Under this framework, the kinetic actions that we have already conducted have not inflicted any casualties, not even injuries to any aggressor.

Moreover, in instances where ships were not protected by us but came under attack by the Houthis, we intervened in specific solas (ph) incidents.

We saved the life of 128 seafarers and, moreover, we participated in handling and avoiding a tremendous, colossal --

(CROSSTALK)

GRYPARIS: -- oil pollution in the Red Sea. So that brings us now --

ANDERSON: Let me just stop you there, sir. Just -- yes, let me -- let me just talk very specifically about some footage of Operation ASPIDES at work

since 2024.

You've said your main challenge right now is keeping up the surge in shipping through the Red Sea amid the volatility of the Strait of Hormuz.

So let's talk about your current operations.

And can you expand on how what is happening in the Strait of Hormuz and the seas around there is affecting what you are doing in the Red Sea?

GRYPARIS: What is going on in the Strait of Hormuz has not affected directly what is going on in the Red Sea. We are continuing our work as we

used to do it.

[10:20:00]

GRYPARIS: So the shipping volume in the Red Sea after the 28th of February has remained pretty much the same. So we are witnessing on an everyday

basis about 39 vessels crossing a day from the Bab-el-Mandab.

So what has changed in that area is the requests that we receive for close protection. So we receive a monthly, let's say, more than 140 requests for

providing close protection to ships and companies that are willing to cross the Red Sea.

And, of course, the repercussions of the tension in the Strait of Hormuz might affect also the -- everything that is going on also in the Red Sea.

But currently we have not seen that yet happening. If, of course, the whole thing -- \

(CROSSTALK)

GRYPARIS: -- jump into that -- yes, of course, the Houthis take over.

ANDERSON: Can I just --

GRYPARIS: interfere -- yes?

ANDERSON: Yes.

GRYPARIS: Yes, please?

ANDERSON: Sorry. Finish your -- if the Houthis interfere or get involved, what is your point there?

GRYPARIS: So we are going to provide a closer -- close protection to more ships. The thing is that actually we are always analyzing the facts, and

also provide a coherent advice to the shipping industry.

And also, we try to inform them in advance what will be their precautions and also the condition to being provided with close protection.

And then we try to, first of all, synchronize our available assets with a request that we receive. So that means that, depending on the shipping

volume, we have always to adapt and deliver the necessary results. Just keep in mind that --

ANDERSON: Right. Let me ask you this.

GRYPARIS: (INAUDIBLE).

ANDERSON: Can I just put our -- I want our viewers and you to listen to just a little bit of my conversation with the E.U.'s foreign policy chief,

Kaja Kallas. Have a listen to this. Her (sic) and I spoke just earlier this week.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

KAJA KALLAS, HIGH REPRESENTATIVE FOR FOREIGN AFFAIRS AND SECURITY, POLICY, EUROPEAN UNION: When it comes to keeping the trade routes open, we have

the naval operation ASPIDES in the Red Sea also to keep that route open.

And we are willing to discuss also the extension of the mandate with our member states strengthening this operation after the cessation of

hostilities.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: So I just want to understand from you the discussions that are ongoing about how the role of Operation ASPIDES might evolve, as the E.U.

foreign policy chief there very specifically stated.

GRYPARIS: So currently, the mandate has been expanded until the end of February 27th. So the mandate is still a defensive mandate that has also to

contribute to the de-escalation of tensions.

So other than that, what we are expecting is to have a more an increased number of member states providing assets and helping and supporting our

work here in the Red Sea. Anyway, these operations was conducted to provide immediate effects to the Red Sea crisis problem initially. So basically,

the original mandate is intact.

ANDERSON: Do you believe that Europe will revisit the idea of expanding the mission and getting involved in the Strait of Hormuz?

What's your understanding?

And how does what you are doing inform what Europe might do next, once the fighting calms down in the waters around the Strait of Hormuz?

GRYPARIS: I'm following also the news and the open sources. And as you are aware, this core probability (ph), let's say, has been expressed from the

authorities that represent Europe.

And I cannot state anything more than that. So, of course, there is an opportunity there. But it has to come to that that the European member

state will agree on that.

ANDERSON: Understood. Good to have you, sir. Thank you very much indeed. It's an important story, an important mission there in the Red Sea. And

getting you on today to provide some context is super valuable. Thank you very much indeed.

Well, the U.S. president said he doesn't appreciate Pope Leo's views on the war.

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But the pontiff isn't shying away from a war of words with Donald Trump. We'll take you to Cameroon for his latest remarks after this.

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(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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ANDERSON: Well, Pope Leo, speaking on the Cameroon leg of his 11-day tour of Africa. These are live pictures of the pope, holding mass at an airport

in Cameroon. He's keeping up his criticism of leaders who seek to justify war. Speaking in West Africa earlier, he issued his harshest condemnation

yet of those he described as tyrants.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

POPE LEO XIV, PONTIFF, ROMAN CATHOLIC CHURCH: Woe to those who manipulate religion and the very name of God for their own military, economic or

political gain, dragging that which is sacred into darkness and filth.

The masters of war pretended not to know that it takes only a moment to destroy it. Yet often a lifetime is often not enough to rebuild. They turn

a blind eye to the fact that billions of dollars are spent on killing and devastation.

The world is being ravaged by a handful of tyrants yet is held together by a multitude of supportive brothers and sisters.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Well, Christopher Lamb is traveling with the pope and has more now for you from Bamenda.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

CHRISTOPHER LAMB, CNN VATICAN CORRESPONDENT: Well, thousands have turned out here in Bamenda in Cameroon for Pope Leo's visit. This is normally a

place that is a conflict zone, a no-go area. But the fighting here has stopped for Pope Leo.

The conflict is between the Francophone government and the English-speaking separatists. Bamenda is the heart of the English-speaking part of Cameroon.

There's been thousands of people who have lost their lives due to the conflict.

But today is one of joy, waiting for Pope Leo to come, to give what they hope is a message of peace and reconciliation. The fighting has stopped and

the people have turned out with joy and excitement to see Leo the XIV -- Christopher Lamb, CNN, Bamenda.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANDERSON: U.S. stocks fluctuating in early trade after the Nasdaq and the S&P hit record highs at the closing bell on Wednesday. Let's take a look at

where the main indices stand now. They started slightly higher but they've slipped back today.

This coming as oil prices do remain volatile even though crude prices have fallen back under $100 on the barrel. CNN business senior reporter David

Goldman joining us now live from New York.

And the big picture, David, it does seem as if there's a bit of complacency out there. Investors do seem to be betting on an early end to the war, even

though that is far from certain. And perhaps that's what we are seeing today on these markets.

[10:30:00]

Disruption to the global economy far from sorted at this point.

What are your thoughts?

DAVID GOLDMAN, CNN BUSINESS SENIOR REPORTER: Well, complacency is one way to put it.

Another way to put it is fear of missing out, right?

Where, if they feel like stocks are going to go higher, they don't want to be on the opposite end of that bet. They don't want to be the one holding

the bag at the end of all of this. And so if there's money to be made as a retail investor, you might want to invest in stocks.

And when you look at the underlying value of companies, they're all reporting earnings right now. There's actually a pretty decent argument

based on what CEOs have said during these earnings calls that, well, you know, there's some good news happening, particularly in AI, which is just

obviously this booming industry.

I mean, the S&P 500 hit an all-time high yesterday and so did the Nasdaq, which is really important because that is the measure that we have for the

tech industry. And that has just absolutely boomed over the course of the past several years.

So I think that what might be happening is just, if you're a stock investor, you just want to make sure that you're not on the losing end of a

bet. But there are other markets, too. Remember the oil market, the bond market in particular, they're telling a very different story.

So yes, oil prices are under $100 but they're not close to $60, which is where they were to start the war. So all those stocks have fully recovered

and then some. We're still kind of hovering around, you know, almost $100 for the oil market, the bond market, the same thing.

It was those yields for the 10-year, which is that benchmark for, you know, how the economy might be doing, how inflation might be doing. It was below

4.0 percent before the war and it peaked around 4.4 percent.

And now we're only back down to around 4.3 percent, 4.25 percent, you know that sort of range. We're not all the way back. And so if you look at the

market as a whole, there are definitely different messages to be had.

ANDERSON: Yes, it's fascinating, isn't it?

Thank you David. Always good.

Still to come. Is Iran's economy near breaking point?

Up next we're going to discuss how economic pressures are intensifying on what is already a very difficult financial situation in Iran amid this war.

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(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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ANDERSON (voice-over): Welcome back. I'm Becky Anderson. You're watching CONNECT THE WORLD. Here are your headlines.

Lebanese president Joseph Aoun is rejecting a direct call with Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu.

[10:35:00]

Officials in Lebanon told Israel and the U.S. they will not seek negotiations until a ceasefire is reached between Israel and the Lebanese-

based, Iran-backed Hezbollah. Israeli officials said Mr. Netanyahu and President Aoun were scheduled to talk earlier.

Pope Leo warning the world is being ravaged by, quote, "a handful of tyrants."

Pope Leo made those comments during his trip to Cameroon. The warning comes after the White House criticized the pontiff for his stance on the war with

Iran.

And the Pentagon chief, Pete Hegseth, says American forces are ready to restart combat operations if Iran doesn't agree to a deal. Iran is now

threatening to shut down all shipping in the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman and the Red Sea in response to a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports.

Hegseth warning Tehran that the U.S. military has the upper hand. Well, my next guest writes about the impact of the conflict on Iran.

Quote, "Iran can't sustain this war indefinitely. The window is probably six months before the economy starts to unravel; shorter if Trump commits

war crimes by targeting infrastructure like power plants.

"But Iranian leaders know this and that is why they were already at the negotiating table in good faith before this blockade was announced."

We're joined by Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, who is founder and CEO of Bourse & Bazaar Foundation, which is a think tank focused on economic development

and diplomacy in West Asia.

It's good to have you on. I keep up with your work. I know you're, you know, your sourcing and insight into the Iranian economy is really, really

valuable. So let's start with your recent remarks.

How much longer do you believe the Iranian economy can withstand this pressure and why?

Just take us behind the scenes here.

ESFANDYAR BATMANGHELIDJ, FOUNDER AND CEO OF BOURSE & BAZAAR FOUNDATION: Well, it's great to be with you, Becky. I mean, the pressure of this war on

the Iranian economy is substantial. And that's important to acknowledge.

I'd say there's three areas that we can look at that really determine the timeline here. The first is that Iran's struggles to export oil while the

conflict goes on will inevitably lead to some form of production cuts in the oil wells in the country.

Reports from energy analysts today suggest that Iran could probably sustain the current oil production for another two to three months before that

starts to become a significant consideration, with a long term impact on Iran's oil industry.

The second thing to consider is Iran's non-oil manufacturing sector. And here we should keep in mind that the disruptions in the Persian Gulf are

not only impacting Iran's oil exports; they also impact Iran's ability to import critical inputs for the manufacturing sector.

But here, Iranian companies have maintained large inventories. This is part of the response to years of sanctions. And so again, I think we have a few

months before you start to see a real breakdown in the availability of goods.

And Iran can also use overland routes to try and make up for the disruptions in the Persian Gulf.

And finally -- and I think this is where the pressure is, in fact, greatest -- you know, there will be a consideration for what happens to basically

the livelihoods of ordinary people in Iran.

And we're already starting to receive reports of basically furloughs or layoffs at different types of companies across industrial sectors and the

wider economy because of the disruptions related to this war. Those will continue to mount. More people will lose jobs if the war continues and if

the economic pressure is sustained, including by a blockade.

And, you know, again, I think in the period of 3-6 months, that will also start to be a significant consideration for the overall health of the

economy.

ANDERSON: So it is really important to discuss then this pressure on Iran and what the U.S. says will happen next. Take a listen to general Dan Caine

earlier today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

CAINE: I'd like to emphasize during this pause that the United States Joint Force remains postured and ready to resume major combat operations at

literally a moment's notice.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: This is a negotiation position. We are waiting to see whether the U.S. and Iran will get back to the table. likely in Islamabad, in the

next couple of days before the end of this ceasefire, which, by the way, Pete Hegseth says Iran is incentivized to protect this ceasefire.

I wonder whether you think this is going to add pressure to Iran or deepen the mistrust between Washington and Iran -- and Iran?

[10:40:03]

I mean, Tehran has already called Washington deeply untrustworthy.

BATMANGHELIDJ: Becky, I think these are statements coming from senior administration officials that are really designed to give the impression

that, whatever deal might come out of another round of talks in Islamabad, was something that reflected a strong U.S. negotiating position.

That basically the U.S. coerced Iran into a deal of its choosing. The reality is that very little that the U.S. can do today will meaningfully

impact Iran's strategic thinking about the negotiations, in large part because the Trump administration imposed maximum pressure sanctions on Iran

eight years ago.

And so Iran has had to contend with significant disruptions to its normal economic activity for eight years. Even something like a blockade that is

being imposed today, which in any case is a blockade of a blockade as many people have pointed out, that's not going to meaningfully change Iran's

staying power in this conflict.

So I see this mainly as political messaging and, in some ways, maybe we should be hopeful that that means that the U.S. is inclined to try and get

a deal done and is trying to prepare the groundwork for that.

But the risk is that, if the talks do fail, then we go back to the military conflict at a higher level of intensity than before. And that's where

things, I think, get really difficult for the global economy.

ANDERSON: Donald Trump believes that he has witnessed regime change because we have seen a change in the personalities at the top of this

regime. He seems to believe that he's got people he can do business with, not least Mohammed Ghalibaf, for example.

And this is a transactional president who believes, you know, it is all about business at the end of the day. And he can, you know, he can work

leverage over this regime by ultimately, you know, upping the ante on the economy, this financial squeeze.

Is this a different regime to your mind?

And are these characters who are sitting around the table in Islamabad next week and possibly this weekend to come, are they people the U.S., this

Trump administration, are they the sort of people that they can do business with?

BATMANGHELIDJ: I think it matters less what kind of people are on the other side of the negotiating table. What matters is the ideas that they're

bringing to the table.

And here I think President Trump is very lucky because, although there has been this significant set of assassinations of senior leaders in Iran, the

Iranian negotiating team is arriving in Islamabad with a similar set of ideas to the negotiating team that was engaged with the Trump

administration before this war started.

Engaged with the Trump administration in June last year and even engaged with the Biden administration in trying to get some kind of agreement back

on the table to avoid a worsening of this crisis.

And the persistence of Iran's approach to negotiations, which are meant to be structured in a win-win format, Iran making concessions on its nuclear

program, potentially other aspects of its security doctrine and, in return, getting significant economic relief, that is still a formula that I believe

Iran's leadership believes in.

And it's a formula that, if the Trump administration can get out of its own way, they can have a deal. But it requires a commitment to seeing a win-win

formula as an acceptable outcome.

And that's something that I think actually the administration may struggle with because they're very keen to demonstrate that they won this war and

that Iran lost this war. And that's playing out in the dynamics around the talks as well.

ANDERSON: It's really good to have you. Thank you very much indeed for joining us.

And a reminder of the global stakes of this conflict, United Nations economists warning that the clock is ticking on a looming food crisis in

several key countries, including Bangladesh; Pakistan, where those talks are being held; Sri Lanka; India.

That's because farmers in these countries are in the middle of their planting season without all the fertilizers and phosphates that are

typically shipped through that Strait of Hormuz.

Those farmers may have to cut their -- cut back, at least, their planting and therefore yield fewer crops when it is time to harvest and feed their

populations this year.

Well, still to come, one of the survivors of Jeffrey Epstein's abuse returns to the sex offender's townhouse (ph) and opens up to CNN about her

traumatic experience.

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(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[10:45:00]

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ANDERSON: Danielle Bensky first met convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein when she was a 17-year-old aspiring ballet dancer. Following the release of

the Epstein files, Bensky shared with CNN new details of her experience and what she found when she looked through the Justice Department's Epstein

evidence.

My colleague, CNN's MJ Lee, filed this report.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MJ LEE, CNN SENIOR NATIONAL ENTERPRISE CORRESPONDENT: You OK?

DANIELLE BENSKY, JEFFREY EPSTEIN SURVIVOR: Yes.

It's just not easy to see, like it's just -- it holds a lot. And just like who I was before I stepped into these doors and who I was after, it's so

long ago that I think like now, after becoming a parent, especially, you start to realize that 17 is so little, you know?

I remember standing right there, there was the GE on the side would have been here. Yes.

LEE: What did you think you were coming here for?

What were you told?

BENSKY: To be a masseuse. Yes.

He's like, nice to meet you, you know. Shook her hand and then just like, got down on the massage chair on the table and was like, you start up here,

you start down on your legs.

LEE: So it wasn't until the second time when you came by yourself. He said --

BENSKY: Ballerinas are crazy and they love to get naked, right?

And you know, if you want to be a ballerina, like, is that like, are you like that?

Right?

Do you like to get naked too?

Like, you should totally try it. And I got naked and massaged him.

LEE: So it was a gradual --

BENSKY: Yes, very gradual. And that's part of the grooming process and grooming tactics.

Look at how many cameras there are. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine. So like that was what I expected to see when we were

originally looking through the files. I was expecting to see a lot of footage of girls, at least in and out. Nobody has that footage.

LEE: Yes.

BENSKY: So where is that footage?

LEE: Yes.

LEE (voice-over): That footage is among the things that Dani began searching for when President Trump's Justice Department recently released

the Epstein files. What she found instead was what she told law enforcement about Jeffrey Epstein in 2008, when she was subpoenaed by the FBI.

BENSKY: I was like, terrified. So I remember calling my mom.

LEE: Yes. BENSKY: And my mom had said, you're going to derail your whole life,

you know and something that Jeffrey had already said to me multiple times, basically, you'll be brought up on prostitution charges.

LEE: That's the headspace you were in?

BENSKY: Completely. And so, I kept walking back, like the amount of times, the level of abuse. I blamed it on a friend a lot of the time.

LEE: Let's go through it a little bit.

BENSKY: Yes, yes.

LEE: This person became very upset and Jeffrey ended up throwing the money at her and yelled at her to get out of his home.

BENSKY: That was me.

LEE: That was you?

BENSKY: Yes. So --

LEE: Well, you're talking about your experience as though you're somebody else.

BENSKY: Yes. Because that is disassociation. If I can remove myself and I can look at it as if it's someone else.

[10:50:00]

And I don't have to -- I don't have to experience it again.

LEE (voice-over): Dani was interviewed by the FBI one more time in 2019 about Epstein. She said she again was unable to share the full truth.

BENSKY: I find it so hard to reread these and look at these because it's like, why couldn't you just be honest?

Why couldn't you just tell someone?

LEE (voice-over): Dani also found her MySpace account from 2008 and photos of familiar rooms and objects inside of Epstein's townhouse.

LEE: I sense that with you, there's this fear that this moment is going to pass.

BENSKY: There are people out there right now, 17-year-old girls right now in parts of the U.S. that are being exploited and trafficked, right?

So I think that there's a lot of responsibility for those of us that have taken this story and turned it into advocacy.

This was part of a claim that I had to actually tell my story for the first time. My mom was diagnosed with a brain tumor called an acoustic neuroma.

We looked at my mom's scans and he said that all it would take was one phone call to Mount Sinai to get her the top-of-the-line care.

He asked what I would do for it. He told me that he wanted me to procure others, which I never did, though I was so intimidated by him, at our

sessions after he repeatedly physically abused me and made me do things to him.

Finally, my mom had her surgery. No help from Jeffrey and so I stopped answering the calls. Before Jeffrey, I was a vivacious dancer with a love

for ballet and the arts. After Jeffrey, I quit dancing because I couldn't look at myself. I couldn't look at my body in a leotard. It felt like my

body was no longer my own.

When I went to acting school, that was the time when I started to actually feel like I could come to terms with who I used to be. I found dance for

myself again and like the movement kind of recalibrated me to come back to myself.

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LEE: Now when CNN inquired whether there's any footage from the cameras that were outside of Jeffrey Epstein's townhouse in New York City, a

Justice Department spokesperson told us that all of the footage in the department's possession has been released.

Now meanwhile, the DOJ did not respond to questions about Dani Bensky's name appearing in the Epstein files. However, since the filming of our

interview, her name has been removed from the library -- MJ Lee, CNN, Washington, D.C.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

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ANDERSON: As we continue to focus on Iran's nuclear ambitions and the nuclear material that may be buried under rubble in that country, the

International Atomic Energy Agency is sounding the alarm about a totally different program.

The IAEA says North Korea is demonstrating an ability to rapidly expand its nuclear program. Will Ripley with this report.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

WILL RIPLEY, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's nuclear program is accelerating. And new

evidence shows it's happening right now.

[10:55:00]

Activity appears to be ramping up at Yongbyon. That's North Korea's main nuclear complex. The International Atomic Energy Agency chief says multiple

facilities are running at once, from reactors to reprocessing to enrichment.

RAFAEL MARIANO GROSSI, DIRECTOR GENERAL, IAEA: All of them point to a very serious increase.

RIPLEY (voice-over): That potentially includes uranium enrichment, a faster path to building more bombs. North Korea is already believed to have

a few dozen nuclear warheads.

And new satellite imagery suggests the exterior of a suspected enrichment facility at Yongbyon is now complete, which could significantly expand

Kim's arsenal.

And as North Korea keeps testing missiles and refining warheads, the big question now, how much bigger can North Korea's nuclear stockpile get and

how fast?

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ANDERSON: That's it for CONNECT THE WORLD. Stay with CNN. "ONE WORLD" is up next.

END