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Lebanon Ceasefire in Effect as Trump Says Iran Deal is Close; Britain, France Host Virtual Meeting on Strait of Hormuz; Oil Prices Drop as Iran Declares Strait of Hormuz Open; Trump Welcomes Iran's Move to Open Strait of Hormuz; Oil Prices Drop, Stocks Surge on Strait of Hormuz Announcement. Aired 9-10a ET
Aired April 17, 2026 - 09:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[09:00:00]
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BECKY ANDERSON, CNN HOST, CONNECT THE WORLD: Want to get to the White House shortly, but right now, we are following some breaking news. We have both
CNN's Nada Bashir in London. She's following the ceasefire in Lebanon. And Nic Robertson is in Islamabad, Pakistan, where he's been monitoring the
diplomatic push for peace.
And Nic, as I understand it, you've just got more information. What do we know at this point?
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Yeah, we've just seen a tweet from the Foreign Minister of Iran, one of the sorts of principal
negotiators, and of course, he's been in conversations with the Pakistan negotiating team, mediating team that's been in Tehran now for over or
going into their third day.
And what the foreign minister says is really it seems to be a positive development. He says, in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, remember we
talked about that yesterday as being an important component to get the Iranians to move along and soften their position.
He says, in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open
for the remaining period of the ceasefire. Not clear if he means the U.S.- Iran ceasefire which expires in a little under five days, or if he means the Lebanon ceasefire which has a period of 10 days to run.
And he goes on to say on the coordinated roots, as already announced by the ports of Maritime Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran. So, what
does that mean? It seems to be an indication from Tehran that the Iranians are softening some parts of their position, but the United States has said
very clearly the core element for them is the uranium enrichment, the nuclear bomb.
ANDERSON: Good, all right. Well, Nic, stand by. I want to get back to you, because this is important stuff, as far as I can tell as I also look at
this post, it does seem to be a suggestion by the Iranian Foreign Minister, the Strait of Hormuz is now open for the period of the Lebanon ceasefire,
which, of course, was a stipulation by the Iranians to get back into talks with the U.S.
They wanted to see this ceasefire between Israel and indeed, Hezbollah. But ultimately, we're talking about Lebanon here. So, let's get to Nada Bashir,
you've just returned from Lebanon. Tell us what we understand to be the situation with regard, what is going on in Lebanon at this point?
NADA BASHIR, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Becky, the ceasefire at this stage appears to be holding clearly. That has been further indicated by this
decision by the Iranian regime announcement by the Iranian Foreign Minister of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, as they have categorized it at this
stage.
And of course, in Lebanon, on the ground, there is a huge amount of hope that this ceasefire agreement, although at this stage, just a 10-day truce
will be sustained. It's been categorized as essentially a good faith agreement to allow for further negotiations to take place, in the hope, in
the eyes of both the Lebanese government and the Israeli government.
As well as the U.S., who of course, has played a key role in mediating these talks, would lead to some sort of lasting agreement on the security
situation on Lebanon's southern border. But of course, there are concerns around the implementation of the critical terms and points within this
ceasefire agreement, namely, whether or not this ceasefire can actually hold for 10 days.
This is indeed a fragile agreement. We've already heard from the Lebanese military this morning accusing the Israeli military of ceasefire
violations, but the Israeli side has been very clear when it comes to the terms of the agreement. They have said that this agreement allows the IDF
to maintain a security zone about 10 kilometers on that southern border within Lebanon, and that will maintain some presence on the ground there.
And also, that the Israeli military maintains the right to carry out what they have described as defensive strikes on any threats or any Hezbollah
threats in this region. Now, this doesn't allow for offensive strikes, as we have seen over the course of now more than six weeks in Lebanon,
targeting what they have described as military target Hezbollah targets.
[09:05:00]
But also, as we've seen on the ground, civilian targets as well across the country, including in the capital Beirut. And for now, the message that
we've been hearing from the Israeli military is that civilian should not be returning to the south, so that southern part of the country, past the
Litani River.
That message has been echoed by the Lebanese military and officials as well. The situation on the ground there simply isn't safe enough just yet.
But despite that, we have seen videos showing people across the country attempting to drive back to their homes in the south, many people have been
desperate for this moment to return home.
Some of them will be returning to homes that are destroyed, damage others, where villages have been entirely destroyed. Important to remember, of
course, that in the space of just over six weeks, Becky, we have seen more than a million people. Some 20 percent of Lebanon's entire population
displaced.
But at this stage, the real hope for so many and for the Lebanese government is that this will provide some much needed, desperately needed
reprieve for the Lebanese people. And of course, a crucial element here is that while these negotiations took place between the Lebanese government,
which does include Hezbollah political representatives, and, of course, the Israeli government.
The real crucial question is whether also Hezbollah will agree and continue to abide by the ceasefire agreement. We've heard from Hezbollah political
officials saying that they will abide so long as Israel upholds its end of the bargain. But again, we have seen this happen in the past, and we have
seen the failure of ceasefires in the past to be upheld in a long-term sense.
ANDERSON: This so baked in. I think the difference this time this is baked into this wider opportunity for further U.S.-Iran talks. The Israeli Prime
Minister describing this ceasefire as a temporary truce, he was quick to point that out, but suggesting that the Israelis were prepared to go for
this whilst ensuring their own security, as he described it, in the buffer zone that has been put in place by the IDF.
What do we understand to be the working sort of behind the scenes between the Israeli Prime Minister and the U.S. President here? And what sort of
pressure was brought to bear on Benjamin Netanyahu by Donald Trump to get this ceasefire over the line? Is it clear?
BASHIR: Well, look at this stage, the U.S. has painted a very hopeful picture as to what the next steps might look like. We've heard from the
U.S. President suggesting that we could see further talks for a long-term peace deal between Israel and the Lebanese government in the coming days.
But of course, this ceasefire between Lebanon, including Hezbollah and Israel, has been crucial, of course, for ongoing ceasefire talks and
discussions between Iran, the U.S. and Israel, as well, as you mentioned earlier in the show, Becky, Iran has been insistent from the beginning an
outset of those ceasefire talks focused on Iran that Lebanon would also be included.
And so there has been pressure, and we heard just last week from the U.S. President saying that he was pushing the Israeli Prime Minister to look
towards some sort of peace agreement with Lebanon including a longer-term framework, which is exactly what the U.S. is hoping to continue discussing
over the coming days.
ANDERSON: Got it. All right. Stand by now. Let me get back to Nic in Islamabad. Nic, you had some breaking news just earlier on, at the top of
this show, post by the Iranian Foreign Minister declaring the Strait of Hormuz open, as long as we understand it, the Lebanon ceasefire holds, what
more do you have at this point?
ROBERTSON: Yeah, we know that the Pakistani mediation team has gone into their third day of talks now in Tehran. They've met with the foreign
minister, they've met with the speaker of parliament, the head of the Iran's negotiating team. They've also met with a number of senior military
generals have also met with the president of Iran.
The fact that their meetings have gone into three days, the fact that ceasefire came into effect the Lebanon ceasefire came into effect late
yesterday, when this negotiate, this Pakistan mediating team was in Tehran, the fact that the Iranians praised the Pakistani side, the Field Marshal,
as in many of for helping deliver that ceasefire in Lebanon, that was very explicit.
It does appear as if a level of trust has been developed and sort of given some energy and positivity into the talks and open the way, and getting it
directly here from Iran's Foreign Minister, open the way for the Iranians to open up the Strait of Hormuz. Look, we often talk in terms of these
diplomatic deals and talks in terms of sequencing, in terms of confidence building.
[09:10:00]
Well, if the Lebanon ceasefire was confidence building for the Iranians. They, Iran has now given their sort of confidence building, perhaps, to the
United States here by opening the Strait of Hormuz. It doesn't seem that the deals are done yet. Iran wants money. It wants war reparations to pay
for the damage from the war.
It wants sanctions lifted. It wants assets frozen, and we're talking about billions of dollars here. So, there are a number of things on Iran's wish
list, and it's not clear at the moment if any of those are being delivered, but it does seem to be opening the way here, a path of confidence and trust
to kind of get all of these issues nailed down.
I think it's too soon to say that's happened, but I think from what I'm getting from sources, this has breathed confidence into these talks that
are happening in Tehran.
ANDERSON: Well, as you speak, Nic, and we report on the latest from the Iranian Foreign Minister on the opening of the strait, we were just looking
at the oil price there, both the U.S. price and the global price down by some 10 percent at present, we're 20 minutes before the opening bell on
Wall Street.
We were looking at markets indicated to be slightly higher on the opening would be no surprise if these markets take off on the back of this news.
So, a lot of optimism out there, and absolutely we were looking at only about a third of 1 percent higher. We are seeing these futures markets
indicating a better stock.
And let's remember certainly the S&P and the NASDAQ have given back all their losses since the beginning of this war. These markets incredibly
optimistic at this point that we are looking at some sort of conclusion to all of this. They may be mispricing this and maybe some complacency in
there.
To a degree, the oil market not moving as of yet, but it certainly looks as if it may be on the move if the Strait of Hormuz is indeed to be opened
again. Let's get you live to Paris and CNN's Melissa Bell, you are monitoring a conference being held by the UK and the French about building
a multinational maritime force to ensure these waters around the Strait of Hormuz are open and moving defensive in nature, but expected to be ready as
soon as the fighting stops. Melissa, what do we know at this point?
MELISSA BELL, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, at this stage, these 50 some countries have come together. Several leaders are represented
here in person, Giorgia Meloni, Friedrich Merz is here, Chancellor Merz as is Keir Starmer, around the French President.
But 50 or so international bodies with about 30 heads of state or government involved in this talk that's going on even now. We haven't heard
their view yet of this announcement, which does appear to shift things substantially. What we had understood is that they would be discussing
today things like de mining operations, how to ensure that ships could get through the Strait of Hormuz for good.
They wanted no tolls. They wanted no blockades. They wanted a return to the prewar days. And in some respects, this announcement by Tehran does suggest
the beginning of the possibility that these talks might lead to somewhere. The other thing that the French had said to us ahead of this, Becky, was
that they would be amongst this sort of grand coalition, and it was not just Europeans, but Middle Eastern countries, trying to look also behind
the scenes, as to whom could do what.
This is a meeting of the willing, as it were, who does not involve the belligerent countries themselves. The idea was to see amongst those
present, or by video link, to figure out who might have leverage, either with Iran or with the United States, to try and encourage them to the
negotiating table.
So I suspect that one of the things you're likely to see, even as they discuss this latest development, is to figure out what pressure can be
brought next to bear on the United States that it goes into those negotiations, given everything that's happened, and certainly the
suggestion by Tehran of its willingness to bring this to an end, by making this gesture to ensure that this is brought to an end.
Again these 50 or so countries have come together. None of them had ever been consulted on any of this. All of them are suffering, first hand, from
it, and desperate to see an end to it, Becky.
ANDERSON: Alayna, all right, let's get you to Alayna Treene. She is in Washington standing by, and as I understand it, Donald Trump has just
posted on his Truth Social platform, what has he said?
ALAYNA TREENE, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, that's right. He is essentially declaring kind of victory here, in some sense, over the
Iranians now announcing that they have reopened the Strait of Hormuz in line of course, with that ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon.
[09:15:00]
I'd remind you that one of the big concessions, or, excuse me, contentions at the start of the ceasefire that was announced between Washington and
Tehran last week was this idea of Israel continuing to attack Hezbollah in the Lebanon saying that that was a violation the Iranians of the ceasefire.
Now that the president had declared yesterday that this ceasefire, there is now a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. The Iranians now saying
that the Strait is open, definitely, of course, a positive effect on the broader talks for a potential agreement between the U.S. and Iran.
And to give you a little sense, Becky, of what I have been hearing this morning, because we are at a critical point. There is a lot of optimism I'm
getting in my conversations with Trump Administration officials. One of them being that they are working toward this second round of talks as early
as this weekend, and that they are hoping really that they can reach an agreement if they are going to make that, the U.S. officials are going to
make that trip back to Pakistan.
Now, today is really going to be a crucial day, because I'd remind you that the Pakistanis the key intermediaries in these talks. They have been
meeting over the last three days with Iranian officials and Tehran, and there is a hope that, really, if the Pakistanis can get the Iranians to a
significant level of compromise, that potentially, there could be an agreement to be had.
Now, of course, there are still key sticking points here, one of them being the number of years, the level of time that the Iranians would agree to
suspend their enrichment of uranium, and also that key question of who will go in to retrieve what the president refers to as the nuclear dust, the
nuclear materials that Tehran still has in its possession.
So still, of course, things that need to be worked out, but there is a high level of optimism that they are getting closer on a series of these
sticking points that could potentially lead to an agreement. So, we have to really see how these discussions go today. But again, you know, you're
hearing the president now very happy to see the Iranians reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
That had been another key sticking point, at least for now, that seems to be resolved. We're seeing oil prices and the markets responding positively
to that news, and I am being told that this could potentially be another step in the right direction as they try to finalize these last remaining
points of a potential agreement, Becky.
ANDERSON: Thank you, Alayna, so let's leave these oil prices up, because they have dropped sharply since the post by the Iranian Foreign Minister,
who said, in line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open
for the remaining period of the ceasefire.
President Donald Trump, on Thursday, of course, said that Israel and Lebanon have agreed to a 10-day ceasefire. And by the way, I mean, we are
just about 10 or so minutes away from the opening on Wall Street. We are expecting those markets to respond well to this drop in oil prices.
We've seen those markets up as much as one odd percent in the futures, and so we should expect to see these three main indices opening higher today.
So, let's get you back to, is Nada Bashir is still standing by for us. Yeah, Nada, let me just get back to you, because the Iranian Foreign
Minister, whose post has been responded to by Donald Trump saying thank you to the Iranians for completely opening the Strait of Hormuz.
The Iranians saying this is in response to this ceasefire with Lebanon ceasefire that was supposed to be included in the first round of talks that
fell apart in Islamabad last week. So just remind our viewers what we understand this 10-day ceasefire to be at this point. Is it holding?
BASHIR: Becky, it is holding at this stage. And clearly this decision taken by the Iranian regime clearly indicates that this is at this stage holding,
and it seems to be a positive indication of where things stand at this current point. But it is, has to be said, a fragile ceasefire agreement, as
you mentioned, it is set to last 10 days.
According to the terms that have been set out in this six-point plan that includes the Lebanese government trying to work with Hezbollah in order to
try to disarm the group that has long been a key call from the Israeli government. They want to see Iran backed Hezbollah forces disarmed in the
south.
That was certainly meant to be the case following that 2024 ceasefire agreement clearly wasn't the case. And obviously we've also heard from the
Israeli government saying that they maintain the right to -- maintain a presence in Southern Lebanon, what they've described as a 10-kilometer
security zone in the south.
[09:20:00]
They say to secure Israel's northern borders. They've also said that they will continue to carry out what they have characterized as defensive
attacks on Hezbollah targets if there is a threat deemed to be present there. So, there is a real question as to whether these terms have been
agreed at this stage by the Lebanese government, alongside the Israeli government appears at this stage, with the support of Hezbollah, at least
its political wing, whether these terms will be deemed acceptable, whether this will allow for a sustainable truce over the next 10 days.
Of course, we've already heard from the Lebanese military saying that they believe there have already been violations, although the ceasefire does
appear to still be in place, but what we've seen happen in the past, for example, in the 2024 ceasefire agreement is a failure, really, by both
sides to uphold the deal in its entirety.
So, we had continued to see, for more than two years now, Israeli targeting and strikes in Southern Lebanon. We have continued to see an expansion of
their grand presence in the south. And of course, Hezbollah has clearly failed to demilitarize. Now the Lebanese government has been trying to put
pressure.
In fact, they themselves have been calling for a ceasefire deal and for peace negotiations and talks with the Israeli government for some time now.
May have said that they are now outlawing Hezbollah's paramilitary wing. They have called on their security forces to rid the capital, for example,
of all non-state arms.
So, it does appear as though the government is ramping up the pressure on Hezbollah in order to uphold and fulfill the key terms of that agreement.
Whether or not this will continue to be the case, is the key question, at this stage Hezbollah has said that it will abide by the terms of the deal,
so long as Israel also abides by the terms of that agreement.
ANDERSON: Yeah.
BASHIR: But of course, the 10-day period, of course, will be a clear moment to wait and see.
ANDERSON: All right, we're going to take a very quick break at this point, back after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
ANDERSON: Well, I want to get you up to speed on what is our breaking news this hour. The Iranian Foreign Minister has just posted this, quote, in
line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining
period of ceasefire, on the coordinated route as already announced by ports and Maritime Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Trump responding with this. Iran has just announced that the straits is fully open and ready for full passage. He caught it the Strait of Iran.
CNN's Eleni Giokos, live for us this hour in Dubai. Melissa Bell is in Paris. Nada Bashir is in London, covering off the Lebanon lines for us.
Eleni, let me start with you.
[09:25:00]
ELENI GIOKOS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yeah.
ANDERSON: The Strait of Hormuz open extremely significant in reality, what does that mean for shipping?
GIOKOS: Well, in reality, Becky, we still have to see it to actually believe it. I want to remind you that Iran has consistently said the strait
is open, but usually with caveats that come much later. What we've been seeing since the start of the war is that any vessel that wants to transfer
through the Strait of Hormuz has to directly negotiate with Iranian forces that now has seemed to be lifted.
And you can see Brent crude and WTI. I mean, there's a huge sell off we're seeing, you know, north of 10 percent losses on both of those oil
benchmarks. Now the other question that people asking is, what happens with the U.S. naval blockade, where they are looking at any Iranian link
tankers, any tankers that have any goods that are loaded from Iranian ports that pass through territorial waters?
Is the U.S. going to pull back Amina Bacher from Kepler saying the market is just buying the good news is a big sell off, but there are still a lot
of questions, and it's only going to be for the duration of the ceasefire. And we have to mention this because we've only got four days left of the
ceasefire.
What happens post the ceasefire? What are the rules of engagement going to be in the Strait of Hormuz? Who's going to ultimately control the strait?
Is it going to be an international waterway like it always was, without a toll being charged, and importantly, without seeing the Iranians having
some kind of control.
And then you've got the U.S. naval blockade. Also, this weekend is very significant, because the lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil comes to an
end. The U.S. has said they're not going to re implement that, you know, sanctions relief. And the United States Navy is very much placed in the
Gulf of Oman, stopping any vessels that are trying to get through that have any links to Iran.
So, this is very tentative, from what I'm hearing from some of the analysts that I've spoken to, but the markets are responding to this news. You're
seeing a sell off, and you're also seeing equity markets rising on the back of this news. The caveat here as well, Becky, is what the Iranians are
saying, the foreign minister says that it has to do with the ceasefire in Lebanon.
And if you remember, one of the most important things that played out during the announcement of the U.S.-Iran ceasefire that Lebanon on was not
included. The Iranians wanted it included. And now they're sending a very clear message about sort of the state of play.
But it also is signaling that Iran is being squeezed. It was gaining a lot of revenue from some of its oil that it was selling, because those vessels
were able to easily pass through the strait, mostly going to Asia. Now that is completely changed because of the naval blockade.
So, the question becomes, has this created a room for more negotiations with Iran, and as we head closer to perhaps what will be a second round of
negotiations, how is Iran going to deal with the question around the strait that it has de facto control of. It has said it wants to continue having
control of.
And now we're seeing a very different scenario playing out. But I remind you, these are just words. We want to see action, and importantly, how
shippers are going to respond? Because we know the Iranians have said there is a dangerous area within the strait, because they have explicitly said
they have placed mines in certain parts.
That's why they were re rooting vessels close to Iranian territorial waters. Has that threat been eliminated? Have we seen enough de miners in
the region, you know, clearing the waters? Those are still existential questions for a lot of the shippers that are trapped in the Persian Gulf.
Almost 1000 vessels, Becky, around 800 you know, tankers and cargo vessels, plus other vessels that haven't been able to move.
ANDERSON: So, I think to one of those questions, and these are all good questions. I'm just going to read out the back end of this post again from
the Iranian Foreign Minister, the Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire.
Nada, I'm going to come to you on what that might look like on the coordinated route, as already announced by the ports and Maritime
Organization of the Islamic Republic of Iran. There is a clearly defined route that they say shipping must still take through the Strait of Hormuz.
Perhaps that speaks to where Iran knows whether waters are mined or not, as the case may be, because we're actually, we still do not really understand
how much of those waters, if any, are actually mined by Iran, or whether that has just been a threat. So, Eleni, thank you for that.
Let's just come back to you, Nada, because, of course, this is about whether or not this Lebanon ceasefire holds and to a degree, as I'm
watching this news rapidly develop here, and as we sort of pass through it.
[09:30:00]
To my mind, we are sitting in a position now where to a degree, the ball is back in both Israel and the Iran backed Hezbollah's court. Will this
ceasefire hold President of Iran says it needs to, in order to keep the Strait of Hormuz open, in order to get these U.S.-Iran talks going again.
Bell is ringing on Wall Street. Stand by Nada. Let me just get that for our viewers. These markets are expected to open high, not significantly. So, I
have to say, and you might have perhaps expected these markets to take off in what has been a 10 percent reduction in the price of oil over the past
20 minutes or so.
We will wait to see how these markets perform. The Dow Jones Industrial Average up by about 1 percent, but let's remember, they have regained all
of their losses since the start of this war. So perhaps investors being a little bit more mindful, we don't have a resolution to this war as of yet,
but we certainly beginning to see some of the pieces being put in place.
Nada, your assessment of what we are seeing here, very specifically through the lens of this Lebanon ceasefire?
BASHIR: Well, it really crucially depends on whether the Lebanese government is able to uphold its side of the bargain, and they have agreed
to work to try to prevent any further attacks by the Iran backed Hezbollah forces in the south targeting Israeli territory.
But of course, if you speak to officials from within Hezbollah, they would argue that despite the ceasefire that was in place and agreed upon in
November 2024. We have continued to see Israeli attacks also on Lebanese territory in the south. We have seen the presence of expansion of Israeli
ground operations in the south.
We have seen entire villages in the south destroyed as part of that operation. And of course, the Israeli government, on its part, has been
very clear that it wants to see Hezbollah demilitarized. It wants to see the south secured and managed in a security sense, by the Lebanese
government and the Lebanese military.
And of course, that's where we are seeing that friction here is whether the Lebanese government itself, which of course, important to note, does also
include political representatives from Hezbollah, whether the Lebanese government is actually able to exert any sort of control and influence over
Hezbollah, both in a political sense and also in terms of its military operations and capabilities in the south.
Now, just weeks ago, we heard from the Lebanese government. They'd written to the United Nations declaring that they had outlawed Hezbollah's
paramilitary wing. We know, of course, that they've been calling on the security forces across Lebanon particularly in Beirut, to prevent and
restrict any non-state arms.
But whether that actually takes place in practice, will be the real testing point here. The Israeli military has already said, and the government has
already said, that it will maintain what they've described as a security buffer zone around 10 kilometers from the Israeli border in the south.
That troops will remain present in the south, that we that they will continue to maintain the right, in their words, to carry out defensive
strikes against any threats to Israel's security. So, it remains to be seen whether this is a sustainable peace agreement, if it can be called that,
whether it returns to the status quo of seeing Israeli and Hezbollah attacks exchanging fire along the border.
And whether this is enough to be considered a peace deal across the next 10 days, or whether we do see a continued potential escalation.
ANDERSON: Yeah.
BASHIR: Of course, this is a crucial element of the overall peace agreement that is trying to be hammered out between Iran, the U.S. and Israel as
well.
ANDERSON: All right, good. Thank you for that. Let me get to Paris. Melissa Bell is standing by. Melissa. Do we have Melissa standing by? We do? I'm
going to take a very short break. I'm hoping to reestablish some communications with Melissa, who is in Paris.
An important dateline for us as we see the UK and France lead an event, a meeting, bringing together leaders from some 50 nations who are discussing
what a maritime group will look like, who might enforce some freedom of navigation in the waters around the Strait of Hormuz.
That is going to be important if indeed we are seeing some progress at this point, is certainly what things look like. Take a break. Back after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:35:00]
ANDERSON: Let's keep you caught up on our breaking news. Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open to all commercial vessels, in line
with the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire, they say. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posting on social media in the past hour that passage through that
vital waterway would continue for the remaining period of the ceasefire agreement.
Now Donald Trump has posted twice since we've had this news in this more recent post, U.S. President says this. The Strait of Hormuz is completely
open and ready for business and full passage, but the naval blockade will remain in full force and effect as it pertains to Iran only until such a
time as our transaction with Iran is 100 percent complete.
This process should go very quickly and that most of the points are already negotiated. I want to just concentrate for a moment on the strait. Eleni
Giokos is live in Dubai this hour with more. Eleni, you've been watching the activity or lack of activity in the Strait of Hormuz now for nearly
eight weeks. What do you have in light of this news?
GIOKOS: Yeah. All right, so yeah, so I mean, apart from the fact that we're seeing oil prices tanking, you've got a huge sell off. But I have to remind
you, we've seen 10 percent moves before, but this news is really significant because we haven't had it so explicitly from the Iranian side,
where they say the Strait of Hormuz is completely open.
And they say it's for the duration of this ceasefire, which, of course, does come to an end in four days. Amina Bacher from Kepler saying we're
going to have to see how this translates to reality. There is a dose of skepticism in terms of how this is going to translate into vessels moving
through the Strait of Hormuz that has, you know, been effectively choked off for, you know, the duration of the war.
And we've also seen the big issue around mines, whether there are mines in the strait, the Iranian specifically saying, the foreign minister says that
there is a coordinated root that has been already announced. So then again, that creates the threat, the risk of potential risks in the Strait of
Hormuz.
But I just heard from a spokesperson from a large logistics company here in the Gulf region, Becky. And he says, we see positive messages of progress,
and we are hopeful, the Strait of Hormuz will open again soon, with business moving and business commencing, which will benefit every nation in
the Gulf.
Now, for him to say this, it's pretty significant, because he's been monitoring, you know, the shippers that have just been stationed and
waiting for any kind of news in terms of transiting through the strait. The other question we need to ask is, what happens to the U.S. naval blockade,
where they have been specifically targeting Iranian linked vessels, vessels that have cost through Iranian territorial waters, that have been loaded
with Iranian products and coming from Iranian ports.
[09:40:00]
What is the U.S.'s response going to be? President Trump says the strait is open, even thanking the Iranians. But you know, there's a caveat to it.
It's the Lebanese ceasefire that has now been included in the overall ceasefire that's going to last for 10 days. And then the ceasefire between
the U.S. and Iran comes to the end of the 21st of April.
So, we're very close to that. Are we going to see more negotiations as we head closer to the lifting of to the end of that ceasefire, and then for
the Iranians, you know, think about this paradox that we saw a few weeks ago with the United States lifted sanctions on Iranian oil out at sea
that's coming to an end this weekend.
And of course, tightening the screws on Iran's ability to gain any revenue from selling of Iranian oil that has dominated the Strait of Hormuz
passageway since the start of this war.
ANDERSON: Yeah.
GIOKOS: But this certainly is creating a lot of questions. Shippers on stand by and waiting. But for analysts, they saying we have to wait to see
how this translates into reality.
ANDERSON: All right, Eleni, thank you for that. Let's discuss all of this with Karim Fawaz he's director of S&P Global Energy. Firstly, your
immediate reaction to the Iranian Foreign Ministers announcement.
KARIM FAWAZ, DIRECTOR OF S&P GLOBAL ENERGY: Thanks, Becky, thanks for having me. I mean, this is a significant announcement. The market is taking
it quite optimistically. You've seen prices react very strongly to the downside brand prices have moved, or futures prices, I should say, have
moved below $90 a barrel.
So clearly the market is taking this as a signal that we're moving towards a different part of this conflict, towards the resolution, or towards a
restart of flows through Hormuz. It remains to be seen in terms of the velocity of the recovery, the pathways, and kind of the volumetric impact
in the short term.
The key things to watch, I think, at this point, is the vessels that are currently still stranded within the Gulf that loaded early on during the
conflict, will they be able to move out very quickly? Is that supply going to come to the rescue? And some of the regions that have kind of fallen
short in recent weeks, that's the first step.
But then starts a much longer discussion beyond kind of some of the caveats that your guests just before me have talked about, about this, the
sustainability beyond the next four day ceasefire, and how it goes from there, but more broadly, the lags in the supply chain, and how this
recovery would take place, even if it were to hold I think a lot of questions are still remaining there.
ANDERSON: Yeah, absolutely. We are hearing this line from one large logistics company based in the Gulf that Eleni was speaking to, quote,
positive messages of progress in response to that post from the foreign minister. So, I think it's fair to say, you know, across the board, we are
seeing what feels like some progress on the Lebanon ceasefire on the Strait of Hormuz here, if this were to hold.
And that is, of course, predicated by whether the Lebanon ceasefire holds. But then, of course, we are also hearing optimistic noises, at least out of
the White House, looking towards what might happen in Islamabad, perhaps this weekend, on a deal between the U.S. and Iran.
I think it's important for our viewers to get from you what the opening of the Strait of Hormuz means in practice, when you get that message from
Iran.
FAWAZ: Yeah.
ANDERSON: What does that mean in practice, to the shippers, the insurers, the producers of oil and gas and other petrochemical products in the Gulf?
FAWAZ: I mean it means, I mean it is significant in the sense that it -- the intent will be for it to provide sufficient comfort in transiting
through the strait without concern of facing any physical damage or other issues that would jeopardize that transit. So that would be reassuring for
the insurance companies, reassuring for the shippers, reassuring for the buyers on the other side that these cargoes would go through.
So, it's very significant from a context standpoint, the sustainability of it matters a lot for the operators that have that own upstream capacity,
fields, refineries in the region, before they're able to restart capacity on sustainable basis, you need to have some forward visibility about how
sustainable these parameters are.
But in terms of the very short-term impact that comfort should be there to kind of allow flows to restart. We'll just see the speed and the scale at
which that can happen. One kind of important number to keep in mind is the optimism looking ahead should not necessarily entirely negate the scale of
the physical crisis we've been through over the last 29 days.
And we've lost an aggregate, by our estimates, somewhere around Middle East loadings as a whole are down roughly 500 million barrels versus where they
were earlier this year over the same period. So, you're losing a massive amount of volume that's not going to be transiting through the strait --
that hasn't been transiting through the strait in the past few weeks.
[09:45:00]
And that will still have an impact in weeks and months to come, even in the best-case scenario where flows restart as expected in the next few weeks
here.
ANDERSON: And the Head of the International Energy Agency said in an interview published just today that the war with Iran will have a lasting
impact on global oil and natural gas markets and output in the Gulf region could take around two years to recover. And we are seeing from the IMF some
forecasts about how Gulf economies may be impacted as a result of that.
So, is your message that we should be looking at this not as a short-term shock, but a longer-term shift, perhaps for global energy markets going
forward, whatever happens next?
FAWAZ: Correct. I think the timing matters here. I think pretty quickly, within a week of this conflict starting, it became clear that this would
not be a very short-term crisis, even if flows were to start to resume relatively quickly. The -- the kind of the physical impact that has been
wrought across the global kind of oil market and by proxy, the economy would take a while to recover.
With time that lasting impact has grown deeper and longer. So, it will be an important kind of factor as we think ahead, is that it will take time to
work our way through all of the lags that have been created, all of the shortfalls and the shortages and the pressures that have been created
across the global oil market, for that to normalize.
I think, if you think about it in terms of process, you can think about it as a five- or six-part process, where the first is clearing the vessels
that are stranded in the Gulf. The second is getting vessels from elsewhere to come back into the Gulf to start loading again.
And a lot of vessels have left the region in recent weeks because of the issues there, and to move to other places to load from there. So, the kind
of renormalizing the shipping fleet will be important. Restarting Upstream production could take several months. Restarting refining capacity will
take several months.
So, all of these things are las in the pace of the recovery, which will delay the extent to which we can get back to a prewar if you want, quote,
unquote normal in terms of flows, for several months. So, we shouldn't think about this as a point in time and to the conflict and tomorrow
everything goes back to normal.
Is just the start of a second phase, which is a gradual recovery with potential continued tightness across different pockets of the system, as
these things normalize.
ANDERSON: Got it. All right, Karim, it's fantastic to have you on today. Your insight hugely important as we continue to digest the news that we've
had out this hour. The Iranian Foreign Minister posting that the Strait of Hormuz is completely open. And in response, a thank you from the U.S.
President.
We're going to take a very short break. More on this, after this break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[09:50:00]
ANDERSON: I want to bring you up to speed on the news that has just broken this hour. It started from Iran, which has declared the Strait of Hormuz
completely open to all commercial vessels, in line with the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire. The Iranian Foreign Minister posting on social media, the
passage through the vital waterway would continue for the remaining period of that ceasefire agreement.
Let me very specifically point out on the coordinated route, as already announced by the ports of Maritime Organization of the Islamic Republic of
Iran. I think that's important to note on the coordinated route. We need to understand what that really means. Donald Trump has posted twice since
we've had this news.
In this more recent post, the U.S. President says this, the Strait of Hormuz is completely open and ready for business and full passage. But the
naval blockade, the U.S. naval blockade, will remain in full force and effect as it pertains to Iran, only until such time as our transaction with
Iran is 100 percent complete.
This process should go very quickly in that most of the points are already negotiated. Well, this is a major development, potentially bringing global
shipping back online, coming as momentum builds to get Iran and the U.S. back to the negotiating table to end this war.
President Trump has suggested a second round of talks could happen this weekend. I want to get more on this with Doug Heye. He's Republican
Strategist and Former RNC Communications Director. This news coming sort of thick and fast. And we will stop if we get any more while you and I are
speaking, but we have heard twice in the last hour from the U.S. President.
In the first post, he thanked Iran, inaccurately describing the Strait of Hormuz is the Strait of Iran being completely open. I just wonder what you
make of the messaging that we've seen on his Truth Social platform since the Iranian announcement.
DOUG HEYE, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST AND FORMER RNC COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: Well, look, Donald Trump has been under a lot of political pressures, and
not just for the reasons that you've discussed. You know, just over the past 20 or 30 minutes.
He's also under very real political pressure in the United States and especially within his own party, as we've seen just over the past several
weeks now, is as these actions have taken place with Iran and there have been blockades and obviously shipping has been put to a standstill.
We know what's happened. Prices have gone up, and Republican members of Congress, Republican Senators who are up for reelection are hearing about
it from their constituents. They're making sure that this White House hears it, and they're looking for anything that they can get to bring good news
that they can send to their voters, that their voters will see back home, not just for gas prices.
But basically, anything that's gotten more expensive over the past several weeks because it's been shipped on a truck, meaning it's used gas that has
gotten more expensive. So as prices have continued to increase, it was already a problem. But before this situation, Republicans are looking for
not just an exit ramp, but something they can show their voters, and it's why the president has been under real political pressure from his own party
and his own base on this.
[09:55:00]
ANDERSON: Yeah, he's looking to -- he will be looking to spin this as a win if we know anything about Donald Trump. Is he going to get that? Is that
going to land for his base do you think in all of this?
HEYE: I think it's less of whether or not it's a success that lands, clearly, as you stated, he's going to take credit for anything and
everything good that happens. It's more a sense that Republicans want some easing away from this. They're not worried necessarily about declaring
victory or whether or not Donald Trump gets to claim credit or victory here.
They're concerned about what happens with prices over the next six weeks and the next six months so that as they go to their voters and talk about
what things are costing, and talk about what they've done to try and lower prices, that this isn't just front -- not front-page news anymore, but
really front of mind conversation for voters.
They're hearing about it constantly when they go home, Republicans and all members of Congress just had a two-week break, and this was the number one
issue that they heard about, gas prices. I was in Charlotte, North Carolina, Becky, two weekends ago, and I asked a voter approached me, and I
said, what's your most important concern?
And they said, gas prices. And I sort of laughed and said, no, I understand that. OK, what's your second most important issue? And they said, gas
prices, because everything is more expensive. And that's what Republican members of Congress, senators and the party committees running the
reelection or election campaigns are really anxious to see an easing of prices so they can go back to talking about what they want to talk about.
ANDERSON: Good to have you, Doug, always a pleasure. Thank you. And we are going to take a very quick break. Back with the second hour of the show
after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
END
