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Iran Said to Have Rejected New U.S. Ceasefire Deal Offered via Iraq; Trump Weighing "Massive Attack" on Iran; Oil Prices Pull Back from $100 a Barrel; Teen Changes Plea to Guilty in Georgia School Shooting; France Evacuates Tourist Hotspot Amid Fire Threat; Nov Nordisk Sues Eli Lilly, Claims Misleading Advertising; FDA Advisers Consider Easing Restrictions on Peptides; U.S.-Iran War Approaching "Significant Escalation"; Trump Says Saudi Nuclear Deal Off Without Israel Recognition; Joint U.S.-Canada Command at Bases in Alaska; Competing Claims for Control of Scarborough Shoal; Cuban Dissident Now Living free in Exile in the U.S. Aired 10a-11a ET
Aired July 24, 2026 - 10:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[10:00:15]
ANNOUNCER: Live from CNN Abu Dhabi, this is CONNECT THE WORLD.
ELENI GIOKOS, CNN INTERNATIONAL ANCHOR: Welcome to the second hour of the show from our Middle East programming headquarters. I'm Eleni Giokos in Abu
Dhabi where the time is just after 6:00 in the evening.
Thirteen days of strikes between the U.S. and Iran as the "New York Times" says the White House made a new ceasefire offer. A deadly shooting in the
West Bank after days of growing violence. And in France, tens of thousands evacuate from Cap Ferret as wildfires rage.
Welcome to the show.
Now, did Iran reject a new U.S. ceasefire proposal? "The New York Times" reports Iran turned down a plan to pause the fighting and offer, the
"Times" says, was presented by Iraq's prime minister. Iranian state media dispute that account, and they're blaming the U.S. for escalating fighting
in the region. For nearly two weeks now, the U.S. military says it's targeted Iranian military facilities in overnight strikes. And Iran
continues to fire back at its U.S. aligned neighbors around the Persian Gulf.
I spoke to Fred Pleitgen last hour. We talked about the reported ceasefire proposal from the U.S. and what it might -- what might be in it.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: It's unclear what exactly this alleged ceasefire offer entails. But of course, we have
heard that "New York Times" report alleging that the Iranians turned that offer down, in part because apparently it did not specify anything about
the status of the Strait of Hormuz.
And, of course, what the Iranians have been saying is that for them, as far as their understanding is concerned of the memorandum of understanding
between the United States and Iran, that, of course, is supposed to keep a ceasefire in place and open and pave the way for further negotiations
toward a broader peace agreement, that they are the ones who define the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, that they create the regime for that,
that they define the transit routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Obviously, the United States has a very different reading of that.
But as far as this alleged ceasefire proposal is concerned, both the Iraqis and the Iranians are now pushing back on allegations that the Iranians
turned that offer down. The Iraqis are calling all of this fabricated. The Iranians are saying that that report from "The New York Times" is
misleading, as they put it. The Iranians themselves say that they hold the United States accountable for the fact that the memorandum of understanding
appears to be breaking down. And they say the biggest thing for them in that is that Article Five of the memorandum of understanding.
And the Iranians continue to say that as far as the Strait of Hormuz is concerned, things are not going to go back to the way that they were before
the U.S. initiated its attacks against Iran in late February. They said that the whole status of the Strait of Hormuz and how its governance is
going to depend on Iran, while at the same time, of course, we do see that things are getting more and more dicey for that memorandum of understanding
as those strikes by the United States, as overnight strikes continue, as you mentioned, for a 13th night, and then also the Iranians retaliating as
well.
The Iranians saying that targets were struck in Iran over vast parts of that country, including the north of the country near the Caspian Sea. But
the Iranians also saying, and of course, this is confirmed by some of the Gulf states, that they have conducted another round of retaliatory strikes
as well, including targets, U.S. targets, as they put it, in Kuwait, and then also the Fifth Fleet in in Bahrain as well.
So certainly with every hour and with every day that this continues, it seems to be that it's more difficult for the two sides to return back to
negotiations. The Iranians have said that they have always believed that diplomacy is also in their interest. But it seems as though right now, with
that tit-for-tat going on of strikes and retaliatory strikes, it's becoming more difficult to actually get back to some form of negotiating table,
whether it's direct negotiations or whether it is through intermediaries -- Eleni.
GIOKOS: Yes, a really important point there. You know, Iran's doctrine is an eye for an eye. And we know Marco Rubio said it's going to be a head for
an eye. So major escalatory language that we're seeing coming through. And reportedly, President Trump is now weighing up a massive attack as well.
You know, and this is sort of the big risk. You know, what happens from here? Where to from here?
PLEITGEN: It is -- certainly you're absolutely right. It certainly does seem to be a very big risk. And it certainly also seems as though all the
players who are involved are very much aware of that, whether it is the United States, the Iranians, and then, of course, the Gulf states as well,
that all of this could have devastating effects. Right now one of the things that the Iranians seem to be telegraphing is that they are not going
to budge in the face of any sort of threats.
[10:05:05]
Of course, you've heard that President Trump has said that if the Iranians continue to shoot at ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz, that the U.S.
would then take out a power plant or a bridge for each ship that was hit. Then they were -- then the United States said that they would use frozen
Iranian assets to pay for any damages if ships were hit. And the Iranians are saying if things like that happen, that it would have devastating
consequences.
They say that if their civilian infrastructure is hit, if critical infrastructure is hit, like, for instance, bridges and power plants, that
they are going to hit targets in the wider Gulf region. And all of that, of course, could be devastating for energy prices around the world, for the
infrastructure in the Gulf region and in general, for the future of trying to get -- find an offramp to the current conflict that's going on.
So certainly it seems as though everybody is very much on edge. It seems as though both sides agree that it would probably be better to find some way
out of this, but right now it seems as though everything is pointing in the direction of further escalation rather than de-escalation.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GIOKOS: I also spoke to Betsy Klein at the White House earlier, and she spoke about what President Trump may be planning if diplomacy doesn't get
back on track.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BETSY KLEIN, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, certainly. I think it's important to add the caveat that President Trump has been warning of a
major attack for many, many weeks and months now. He has used that in part as a negotiation leverage point, but it's unclear if he's going to follow
through on this. Specifically, attacks on civilian infrastructure, things like bridges, roads, as well as Kharg Island, that key oil hub where he
would almost certainly need boots on the ground.
But it's been 13 consecutive days of strikes. And as he considers a strategy and path forward here, it's important to note this new U.S.
intelligence assessment conducted that in recent days reveals that these strikes the U.S. is currently carrying out in Iran are unlikely to shift
Iran's negotiating position, according to two sources familiar with that intelligence. However, there is some rare agreement from the U.S. and Iran,
and that is around this "New York Times" reporting that Iran reportedly rejected a ceasefire proposal that President Trump conveyed through Iraq's
prime minister.
In -- we don't know what was in that proposal, but Iranian officials told "The Times" they were not interested in a temporary deal that would not
resolve that question of who controls the Strait of Hormuz. And as Fred laid out there, Iran has pushed back on this report. They call it
diversionary and misleading. A U.S. official now tells me that it's also not accurate.
Trump, meanwhile, says that Iran is not ready, in his view, to make a deal. It's not clear what that strategy is going to be going forward. It could be
that escalation, as you mentioned, boots on the ground. It could be status quo. But the president, we've learned, is becoming increasingly frustrated
with this conflict. He said it would be over in a matter of weeks. It has now about to hit its five-month mark.
The price of gas here in the U.S. is steadily ticking up. This is incredibly unpopular with the American people, with just 34 percent of
Americans. In a new FOX News poll approving of his handling of this war. And we have the midterm elections here just about three months away. So all
of that weighing on the president as he considers a path forward here.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GIOKOS: The widening conflict in the region is having an impact on the oil markets. Global crude prices have fallen a bit today, but great Brent crude
is still hovering near $100 a barrel. As you can see, it's sitting just below $98 a barrel. WTI below $90 a barrel.
The price of the global benchmark hit the triple-digit milestone on Thursday. For the first time since May, oil markets are nervous about Iran-
backed Houthi militants targeting Saudi Arabian tankers in the Red Sea.
We've got CNN's Anna Stewart standing by for us.
Anna, Brent crude now, you know, just below $98 a barrel, but it is still set for a 10 percent increase for the entire week. Give me a sense of what
you're hearing from traders about the concerns and how much of this uncertainty has been priced in.
ANNA STEWART, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, I think it depends where we go from here. Earlier this week and certainly yesterday there was huge concern,
wasn't there, that what we we're seeing was a double choke point and perhaps not only would we have an effective closure of the Strait of
Hormuz, but also an effective closure maybe of the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, which I'm sure we can show you on a map.
Another critical route, particularly for Saudi oil, which has been a backup line essentially. With one pipeline blocked, it's been able to funnel all
across the country and use this as an exit route. There were huge concerns when two Saudi vessels were attacked earlier in the week that that would be
the case.
However, let me bring you the latest data from maritime tracking agency, Marine Traffic, which is my go to every morning, my favorite read, 49
vessels actually traversed the Bab al-Mandeb Strait yesterday.
[10:10:08]
That was an increase of 16 percent from the day before, so there is still traffic there. It is not effectively closed. What is interesting is none of
those were Saudi flagged vessels. And actually there have been a lot of discussions from analysts and certainly from financial journalists today
about what the other options are. Does this mean there is no way for Saudi oil to get out if they cannot use this other strait to get oil,
particularly to Asia, big consumers being China and so on?
Well, perhaps they can, you know, go north through the Red Sea, up through the Suez Canal. But there are some issues with that. They wouldn't be able
to use VLCCs, very large crude carriers, fully laden. It just simply wouldn't fit. And also that detour having to go up and then round Africa
around the Cape of Good Hope, as we know from years past, we've been reporting this, is hugely expensive. That puts a further premium on oil.
However, there does seem to be more resilience than perhaps traders felt there was earlier this week.
GIOKOS: OK, so what number are we then expecting? If there's an escalation, what kind of oil price mark can we expect? Because reality is traffic in
the Strait of Hormuz is still very much restricted. A new front potentially opening up. That means less oil floating around, around the world.
STEWART: And more and more attacks in the Black Sea, on vessels in the Black Sea as well due to, you know, the other battle going on between
Russia and Ukraine. So there's a lot for traders to consider here. It was interesting. Latest notes from Capital Economics saying that if there were
a more persistent supply disruption, they could assume that oil prices would go towards $120 a barrel, perhaps even higher.
But that currently is not their baseline. Of course, we're actually looking at this double chokepoint situation of this week in a very different
context, I think, to earlier in the year when the war with Iran first started. We are now looking at a situation where strategic reserves around
the world are much, much more depleted. And a key market like China, you know, a major consumer for the Gulf has been leaning on domestic reserves.
But how long can it lean on those reserves?
Also good to look beyond oil prices, yesterday, of course, there was a huge bond selloff. The markets looking a little bit flat today, but they're
still very high. Beyond oil, we're looking at, you know, inflation potentially ticking much higher. We're looking at interest rates going much
higher. So this is a much broader concern I think for investors and for all of us, frankly.
GIOKOS: Yes, indeed. Anna Stewart, good to have you with us. Thank you so much.
We're also following a major development in the case of the teen accused of carrying out the deadly shooting at Apalachee High School in Georgia. 16-
year-old Colt Gray has pleaded guilty to multiple murder charges in the 2024 attack that killed four people and wounded nine others. Previously, he
had pleaded not guilty. The judge has accepted the guilty plea, moving the case into the sentencing phase.
CNN's Isabel Rosales is following the story for us from Georgia.
Good to have you with us, Isabel. What more can you tell us about the change of plea and what is the atmosphere like inside the courtroom?
ISABEL ROSALES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Eleni, the atmosphere is thick. There's so much emotion. It is charged in there and the courtroom right behind me
is packed to the brim with family members of these victims, with teen survivors wearing Apalachee High School shirts. And right now, right behind
me, we're hearing victim impact statements.
Before I get into that, let me bring you back to speed to what's going on here in the next couple of days, which is a multi-day plea hearing and
sentencing for Colt Gray today. He just switched his plea from not guilty to guilty on all 55 counts, including malice murder. What won't be here on
deck as a possibility for his sentencing is the death penalty. That is because the Supreme Court here of the United States ruled back in 2005 that
juveniles cannot be sentenced to death for crimes that were committed below the age of 18.
Let me bring you into the moment where Colt Gray changed his plea. Watch this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: National basis for each count just announced by the state. Is that right?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, your honor.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Do you agree that there are facts to support each of the charges against you?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, your honor.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Are you pleading guilty to each of the charges because you are, in fact, guilty?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, your honor.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Counsel, is there anything I need to address before accepting or anything else?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No, your honor.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: All right. Mr. Gray, I will accept the plea. I find there's a factual basis for it. You understand the nature of the charges,
the consequences of the plea, the rights you give up on pleading guilty. You are entering freely and voluntarily.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, your honor.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ROSALES: So this is what's called a non-negotiated plea, basically meaning that the D.A. does not have a plea agreement with Colt directly.
[10:15:04]
It's going to be up to the judge to decide the sentence, which will have to be a mandatory life sentence. But the question here before the court is
whether he will be eligible for parole. The judge will ultimately decide that. But listen, what we're hearing right now is incredibly powerful
testimony, victim impact statements from family members. Right now, it's Mason Schermerhorn's family, a 14-year-old that Colt Gray killed that day
of September 4th, 2024.
We heard his mom breaking down into tears saying that Mason, her son, and Colt would have been friends if he just kept showing up to school because
her son was that sort of a loving person that he stole a beautiful, a joyful life from the family. She also said that she does not forgive Colt,
but does have sympathy for him, saying that his family, the system failed him. We also heard from Mason Schermerhorn, the victim's young -- older
sister, Alana Schermerhorn Wallace, who looked directly at Colt.
She had this powerful testimony and, Eleni, what she told him in that moment is, you're a coward. I wish you would have taken your own life
instead of carrying out this plan to fruition and causing so much grief and pain in this community of Winder, Georgia -- Eleni.
GIOKOS: Yes. Such a devastating story. Look, Colt's father, Colin Gray, was already convicted on murder and manslaughter charges in this case and is
expected to be sentenced later this month. What more do you have on this? What more can you tell us?
ROSALES: Yes. And by the way, he's going to be sentenced a day before all of these kids go back to school at Apalachee High School. That's expected
to happen next Thursday. Back in March, Colin Gray became the first parent in the United States to be convicted of a murder for a school shooting that
their child carried out. The prosecutors argued and were successful in proving that he was criminally negligent by buying his son an AR-15 style
rifle for Christmas despite numerous red flags, warning from family members about his son's aggressive behavior that he was witnessing himself and his
spiraling mental health and for leaving ultimately that weapon and ammo unsecured -- Eleni.
GIOKOS: Isabel Rosales, thank you so much for that update.
Well, French authorities have taken the extraordinary step of offering the -- of ordering, rather, the total evacuation of a tourist resort as a
massive wildfire threatens the Cap Ferret peninsula in the southwest of the country. On Friday, 4,000 people left by boat as well as by road. French
president Emmanuel Macron says he's asked for help from the E.U. Countries, including Croatia as well as Portugal are expected to send firefighting
aircraft.
Spain, meantime, has declared a national emergency linked to wildfires for the first time ever. It comes after fires threatened towns near the
capital, Madrid, overnight.
CNN's Melissa Bell has more.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
MELISSA BELL, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): As wildfires grip this tourism hotspot in southwestern France, locals in a
nearby port watch as an ominous red sky marks the terror taking place across the bay. French authorities ordered the total evacuation of the
Hamptons like Cap Ferret Peninsula on Friday. The wildfire that had devastated thousands of hectares already doubled overnight, according to
local authorities.
There's only one road linking the Cap Ferret to the outside world. Some 40,000 people use that to evacuate, with a few hundred taking boats to the
Port of Carcassonne on the other side of the bay. Not far away another wildfire is also raging in the northern region around the town of
Biscarrosse where 23,000 people were evacuated.
This local resident says, it's worrying and it's worrying because the whole neighborhood where I live has been evacuated. So we're in doubt, wondering,
are we OK? Has everything burned?
Another woman from the nearby land region said fear had begun to spread overnight on Thursday.
"We're all starting to panic a little now, to be honest," she says. "We spent the whole day not really knowing what was going on. And now that
night has fallen and it's really red, we can feel that it's right next to us."
French President Emmanuel Macron called the situation very tense, particularly in Gironde, adding that France had requested the activation of
the European Union's civil protection mechanism.
France is battling 32 wildfires of varying sizes, according to the interior minister, including this large one in the southern Var Region.
"It really is a disaster. When you arrive here, it feels apocalyptic. It's as if we're no longer in this world but in another one," she says.
Spain is also facing the consequences of successive heat waves and parched conditions, with residents in some towns near Madrid also forced to
evacuate because of wildfires.
[10:20:01]
They've become a regular feature of European summers but this year the continent's forest fire information system says that it has seen far more
land burnt than the annual average for the same period normally. This after record-breaking climate change driven heat waves turned the landscape into
a tinderbox.
Melissa Bell, CNN, Paris.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GIOKOS: When we come back, the two giants of the weight loss drug market are embroiled in a legal battle. One is accusing the other of false
advertising. And --
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
ROBERT F. KENNEDY JR., HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES SECRETARY: I'm a big fan of peptides. I've used them myself.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GIOKOS: Could the U.S. let its peptide bans lift them? If RFK Jr. gets his way, yes, and it could pave the way for other controversial drugs. That's
coming up next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GIOKOS: The maker of the weight loss drug Zepbound is set to seek approval to roll out its next generation obesity drug, even as it fends off a
lawsuit from its main rival, Eli Lilly. The American company behind Zepbound and Mounjaro is accused of using misleading advertising by
Denmark's Novo Nordisk, which makes Ozempic and Wegovy. It claims Lilly is tracking consumers by using outdated studies, a claim Eli Lilly firmly
rejects. At stake are tens of billions of dollars of sales, as worldwide demand for weight loss drugs soars.
I want to go now to Anna Cooban with the latest.
Anna, really good to see you. I mean it's highly competitive. And you know, it's so interesting that this is accusation about using outdated numbers
and data as well as metrics. So what is behind the lawsuit?
ANNA COOBAN, CNN BUSINESS AND ECONOMICS CORRESPONDENT: Well what Novo is saying, Eleni, is essentially Eli Lilly, we don't like the fact that you
compared a higher dose version of your drug with a lower dose version of our drug to talk about its effects in advertisement. And of course, if you
do that, you're going to see more weight loss with the Lilly drug and Novo is saying you should have compared a more recent version of our drug at a
higher dose. But then Lilly has come back to say, look, we cited a head-to- head robust trial of our two drugs against each other. That should be enough. And we're going to fight tooth and nail really this legal
challenge.
But, you know, zooming out, it's really fascinating, Eleni. We are really at the start of what this weight loss drug industry is going to be. These
two giants are going toe-to-toe around the world, but particularly in the U.S. market, which is both of those companies' largest markets, and where
they are able to advertise prescription drugs because in the vast majority of countries around the world that advertising is not allowed.
Competition is heating up. We've got this new pill, oral version of the drug, which widens access because many people don't want to take injections
for their medication. So it's going to be super interesting to see where this lawsuit goes, but also where the industry goes over the next five, 10,
15 years, Eleni.
[10:25:01]
GIOKOS: All right. Anna Cooban, thank you so much.
Advisers for the U.S. Food and Drug Administration have put their stamp of approval on a controversial type of peptide injection. The panel is meeting
for a second day to discuss peptides and whether to let pharmacies produce the controversial drugs.
CNN's Dr. Sanjay Gupta reports for us the decisions are being made under the watchful eye of a health secretary known for his unconventional views.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
KENNEDY: I'm a big fan of peptides. I've used them myself.
DR. SANJAY GUPTA, CNN CHIEF MEDICAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Robert F. Kennedy Jr., President Trump's health secretary, is embracing peptides. And
he isn't alone. The global market is projected to more than double by 2034.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Peptides. You want to know more about peptides? Look at my stash.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: If you're curious about peptides, but have no idea where to start, then this one is for you.
GUPTA (voice over): Let's start with the basics. Our bodies have 20 fundamental amino acids. When they combine in short chains, they form
peptides. For instance, this one is KPV.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Let's talk about KPV.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: KPV, the queen of anti-inflammation.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: KPV, day three.
GUPTA (voice over): Peptides help regulate different functions in the body, and synthetic versions are promising everything, from building muscle to
more youthful skin. In the United States, some peptides are approved by the Food and Drug Administration, like insulin and semaglutide. That's the
peptide in Ozempic. But many more are not FDA approved, and they have not been proven safe or effective, including this list of 17 peptides.
Until recently, people could still get these through compounding pharmacies, which made them from raw ingredients. But three years ago, the
FDA banned them, citing significant safety concerns, including the risk of life-threatening allergic reactions. But that hardly made a dent in the
demand. Peptides that were banned by the FDA were still widely bought and used, mostly through unregulated markets.
They skirted the rules by labeling the peptides "for research use only." And now Secretary Kennedy wants to lift that ban.
KENNEDY: The compounding pharmacies are getting those peptides from FDA- inspected facilities. And some of them in India and China. But they were the same one that the pharmaceutical industries are buying them. And we
inspect those. So, you know you're getting a good product. You know you're getting what you bought, what you -- what was advertised. With the gray
market, you have no idea.
GUPTA (voice over): This week, an FDA advisory panel is discussing reversing the ban on seven peptides. That's even after an agency review
already said the evidence does not justify letting pharmacies make any of them. Kennedy, he disagrees.
KENNEDY: You look for a safety signal. And if there is one, then you move it. But if there's not one, then you don't.
GUPTA: (voice over): Critics warn that would essentially reverse decades of how we approve drugs in the United States.
So in many ways, this is a story about peptides, but also about how the FDA is going to handle situations like this going forward. Again, keep in mind,
an advisory committee met a couple years ago and decided not to approve these peptides. They said there were concerns about safety, potentially
life-threatening concerns. And now there's a new committee, a committee that is made up largely of people who prescribe peptides, who promote
peptides, who produce peptides. And now they're the ones who are going to be making these recommendations about peptides.
Look, supporters will say people are taking the peptides anyway. That hasn't changed. Let's try and make them as safe as possible. Take them off
this unregulated market and allow compounding pharmacies to make them here in the United States. Critics will say, look, again, there's no data here,
and there are significant safety concerns.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GIOKOS: Coming up, harbingers of escalation in the Iran war. I'll be talking to an expert who's made some troubling predictions on what could
happen next, including the possibility of U.S. ground forces. That is coming up.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[10:31:35]
GIOKOS: Welcome back to CONNECT THE WORLD. I'm Eleni Giokos. Here are your headlines.
"The New York Times" reports Iran rejected a U.S. ceasefire offer presented by Iraq's prime minister. Iranian state media denies that and is blaming
the U.S. for escalating the fighting, with the U.S. completing a 13th straight night of strikes in Iran. Iran, meantime, continues to target its
U.S. aligned Gulf neighbors.
France has asked the E.U. to send help as it battles multiple fast-moving wildfires. French President Emmanuel Macron says assistance should arrive
soon. It comes as Spain declares a national emergency over wildfires for the first time after new fires threaten towns near Madrid.
Palestinian health officials say four Palestinians and one Israeli were killed in a shooting near the city of Nablus. Details about what triggered
the shooting remain unclear. The violence comes amid heightened tensions across the Israeli occupied West Bank in recent days.
All right. My next guest has been laying out the case that the U.S. war with Iran is approaching a significant escalation, writing on X, and I
quote, "The conflict may be entering a more dangerous phase, potentially comparable to the peak of the 40 Day War."
Hamidreza Azizi is a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, with a focus on this region. He joins
us now from Berlin.
Hamidreza, great to have you with us. I mean, you're very concerned around potential escalation here. President Trump says that he's, you know, really
taking into consideration a massive attack. We don't know what this attack will look like, but how are you weighing things up? Because it feels like
we're at an inflection point.
HAMIDREZA AZIZI, VISITING FELLOW, GERMAN INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AND SECURITY AFFAIRS: Well, my assessment actually is based on two things. On
the one hand, developments on the ground and the trajectory of developments over the past couple of weeks that has been indicating to some sort of
escalatory pattern in terms of both the target sets and the geography of the attacks by the United States.
And on the other hand, and maybe more importantly, it has to do with the fact that the United States has reached the limits of what military force
in terms of air power and regular airstrikes may achieve. And that may indicate that the next step would be one of two things, either to escalate
towards kind of an infrastructural war targeting civilian infrastructure as President Trump has done from time to time threatened, or to even consider
sending ground troops in a limited or more extensive kind of ground operation.
GIOKOS: What are you -- what do you believe the probabilities are of a ground invasion at this point?
AZIZI: Well, there's different factors that we need to take into account. What I can observe is kind of an incremental pattern that may, you know, in
the end lead to some sort of a ground operation because, as part of the regular airstrikes in southern Iran, the United States has also targeted
some logistical nodes that enable the Iranian forces to provide support for the forces in that area and at the same time, there have been some
movements around the Kuwait-Iraqi border and also in Iraq itself.
[10:35:12]
What has to do with the Kurdish militias that can be used as some sort of, you know, part of this operation actually, so it could be a hybrid actually
operation combining some special operation forces, entering either from Kuwait or an amphibious force from the shores of the Persian Gulf, together
with forces by the Kurdish militias from the Iraqi Kurdistan. So these are the scenarios that are being discussed in Tehran as well at the moment.
GIOKOS: Yes, yes. I mean, OK, so you're working out these scenarios. I mean, does this include Kharg Island, would you say? I mean this -- I mean,
and would this be a miscalculation in terms of the consequences?
AZIZI: Well, Kharg Island, as far as I know, has always been part of the discussions in terms of what President Trump may do in order to put
increase -- increasing pressure on Iranian oil exports to make Iran reconsider its plans. But, you know, that sort of an operation alone cannot
bring about any significant change because, you know, taking over an island is one thing, and then controlling it and maintaining the U.S. positions
there is a totally different thing.
And we shouldn't forget that Iran is a vast country. And the accuracy of the missile strikes, as we can see, for example, in daily attacks on U.S.
targets all around the region has significantly increased. So that would put the U.S. forces in significant risk. That's why some experts, military
experts actually, say that the only way would be to deploy massive force to take over the entire coastline of Iran around the Persian Gulf, which would
include then hundreds of thousands of forces. And that would mean further involvement of the U.S. forces in a kind of a never ending war somehow.
GIOKOS: Yes. And they don't have the -- yes. And they don't have those kind of forces in the region at this point. President Trump was also about --
talking about Kuh-e Kolang, Pickaxe Mountain, saying it's going to strike there very soon. I want to show you where it's situated. It's, you know,
about 200 kilometers from a nuclear facility in Natanz. How important would a strategic target like that be to sort of gain momentum from the United
States' position?
AZIZI: Well, the most important thing about this site is that we don't have any verifiable information about this because the latest that the IAEA
could confirm was that Iran had informed them before the 12-Day War in 2025 that they wanted to move some parts of their enrichment and overall nuclear
program there. But there's no indication that Iran has actually started enrichment in that place.
That's one thing. Another thing is that it is the most fortified facility that Iran has in its nuclear program. So these things combined make the
outcome of any potential strike kind of very uncertain unless President Trump wants to do something big and symbolic in order to, you know, declare
mission accomplished. But even that, I think, may produce backlash on the Iranian side because they don't want what happened in Fordo in 2025 and now
this one to become president of the United States basically targeting wherever there is some sort of nuclear activity done by the Iranians. So
that can lead to another kind of escalatory pathway effort.
GIOKOS: Yes. Well, it's, you know, 13 consecutive nights of strikes. We don't know what this weekend will bring, but everyone is watching very
closely.
Hamidreza, great to have you with us. Thank you so much.
The White House is making a major about-face on a nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia. On Thursday, President Trump said the deal is off unless the
kingdom normalizes diplomatic ties with Israel. The announcement came less than 24 hours after the agreement was signed without that condition.
The White House said the change didn't come at the request of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who strongly opposes any such deal. But here's
the administration's explanation for why the new condition was not included in the first place.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED REPORTER: Why was that condition not mentioned yesterday when the energy secretary announced it?
KAROLINE LEAVITT, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: Well, look, the president is always the final dealmaker, as you know, and this is something that he has
mentioned on numerous occasions. The president just put out this statement a few hours ago. I don't believe he's had a call with MBS in the hours
since.
[10:40:04]
However, this is something that he has raised in previous conversations and has also said many times in the past.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
GIOKOS: CNN international diplomatic editor Nic Robertson weighs in from Jerusalem.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Look to me. From all the conversations I've had with Saudi diplomats, the top tier and runs down
below over the past couple of years, the message and I've kept pushing back on, well, can't you sort of do a normalization? Isn't that going to improve
the situation? And you know, there's a, you know, a peace in Gaza now, which has been a big part of the problem, how Israel responded to Hamas's
brutal attacks on October 7th. 1200 Israelis killed, 250 Israelis taken hostage, and more than 70,000 Palestinians killed in the aftermath.
The Saudis, the message I've got back every single time, and it's become stronger and clearer without equivocation that unless Israel is willing to
recognize a Palestinian state, a viable non sort of reversible pathway to a Palestinian state, then there's no moving forward on normalization. And the
frank assessment in Saudi Arabia is that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu isn't the prime minister of Israel that can deliver that because they don't
believe that he sincerely wants to have a Palestinian state.
And they've listened to it. They've listened to the times when he has uttered those words. So it does seem to me what the White House has
introduced here and look, let's face it, this was a pretty big about turn. It is a roadblock at the moment. There could be ways around it. Let's not
preclude that. Don't expect the Saudis to go public with their anger and frustration. They're very good at keeping -- about keeping that in. But I
would say just look at where we are tonight, just to bring in the Houthis.
And they're hitting Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and President Trump saying, if you do that again, I'll come in and hit you, Houthis, and I'll
hit you, Iran, because you're behind them. And the Saudis, from the sources I've been talking to, have been saying that if the Houthis were to do this
sort of action, then they would, the Saudis would have a military response against the Houthis. That could be a pretty big escalation.
To do that they're going to want to know that they have the United States at their back. If you're in Riyadh right now and you're trying to figure
out what is your move against the Houthis, and where is President Trump behind you on that? What is said today can you count on it tomorrow? This
is sort of just a microcosm, a small slice, if you will, of the uncertainty that's going on in this region at the moment.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GIOKOS: We're going to a very short break. When we come back, we'll cover more news and all the news that matters around the world. Stay with CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GIOKOS: As President Trump escalates his trade war on Canada, CNN went to NORAD bases in Anchorage and Fairbanks, Alaska, where U.S. and Canadian
forces are working together closely to protect both nations from threats as well as adversaries.
[10:45:13]
So how do they view the ongoing spat between U.S. and Canadian leaders?
CNN's Jim Sciutto went to find out in this exclusive report.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF SECURITY ANALYST (voice-over): While the U.S. and Canada trade tariffs and insults on the ground --
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Well, I'd like to see Canada become our 51st state.
MARK CARNEY, CANADIAN PRIME MINISTER: Canada doesn't live because of the United States.
SCIUTTO (voice-over): In the air, they still fly side by side.
NORAD, the North American Aerospace Defense Command, is the first line of defense for both the U.S. and Canada against aircraft and missiles from
Russia, China, North Korea, and beyond.
Tell me how important and how that partnership works.
COL. MICHAEL MULLEN, FORMER DEPUTY COMMANDER, U.S. AIR FORCE 354TH FIGHTER WING: That partnership is fantastic, right? So, if you look at as we go to
work in protecting the really Alaska, the Pacific region, really our Northern hemisphere. You saw that map again. If you look down at the top of
the world where the Arctic is, and everything gets out there.
So we are working constantly together with our Canadian allies. We really can't do this homeland defense piece for the Arctic region without our two
nations working in collaboration with each other.
SCIUTTO (voice-over): Here, everything is a combined effort. Joint mission, joint commands, and joint sorties, often scrambling to intercept Russian
and Chinese aircraft testing North American airspace. And those flybys can be close and dangerous, like this one involving a Russian fighter jet in
2024.
LT. COL. NATHAN MONDUL, FORMER SQUADRON COMMANDER, U.S. AIR FORCE 18TH FIGHTER INTERCEPTOR SQUADRON: That was one of my pilots. I'd say, I don't
know who that Russian pilot was, but I'm sure that they probably got some talking to when they got back to their base. I would hope they did.
SCIUTTO: Eielson Air Force Base is first to respond to any air incursions by Russian or Chinese aircraft. And it's home not just to F-16s, but also
state-of-the-art F-35s.
(Voice-over): Inside NORAD's operations center, the wall is decorated with stars, marking each intercept of a Russian or Chinese aircraft, and that
list is growing. Since January 2025, U.S. fighter aircraft have conducted some two dozen intercepts in the Alaska Air Defense Identification Zone,
where U.S. And Canadian fighters respond to any threats in the air.
What is the operation tempo up here lately?
BRIG. GEN. MARK LACHAPELLE, CANADIAN AIR FORCE: Yes, the operation tempo has been pretty heavy. I've lost count, to be frank and honest. But we do
it, and it helps us demonstrate our ability to defend our theater and operate in the environment which we know Alaska is challenging.
SCIUTTO (voice-over): It's a challenge U.S. and Canadian commanders still make clear they can only meet together.
LT. COL. JONATHAN BIENKUSH, ALASKA AIR NATIONAL GUARD: Absolutely essential here, not just from Alaska being, you know, a lot of common interest with
Canada, but from a mission partner perspective, showing that combined effort, defense of the homeland of North America, keeping integrated on
that is absolutely essential for us.
SCIUTTO (voice-over): Jim Sciutto, CNN, Eielson Air Force Base, Alaska.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GIOKOS: Now to simmering tensions in the south China Sea. Today marks the third time this week that there have been encounters in contested waters
with Chinese coast guard ships firing water cannons at Philippine vessels. Recent clashes are revolving around a dangerous flashpoint. Scarborough
Shoal, a sandbar claimed by both Beijing as well as Manila.
CNN's Ivan Watson is aboard a ship traveling through those contested waters and witnessed a confrontation.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
IVAN WATSON, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Right now, we're looking at a China Coast Guard ship that's operating in very close
proximity to a ship from the Philippines' government, from the Bureau of Fisheries and Aquatic Resources. Both of these ships are operating in
disputed waters close to Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea.
Both Manila and Beijing claim that uninhabited rock for themselves. China has effectively, with its much larger fleet, controlled it and boxed out
the Philippines from it for years. And yet, the Philippines, with much smaller resources and a much smaller fleet, are demonstrating that they are
not going to relinquish their claim to that area.
This is a flashpoint in the South China Sea. There are a number of similar disputes, and you can see just how close the Chinese vessel is to the
Philippine ship. Both sides have been issuing warnings to each other, repeating that they claim that they are operating legally in these
contested waters.
[10:50:04]
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You have entered the (INAUDIBLE) waters of the People's Republic of China.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Your unsafe maneuver and in dangerous actions against the government of Philippine vessel.
WATSON: These types of confrontations happen all the time, daily, weekly. They've been going on for years, and we're getting a rare view at how close
these large ships operate to each other. We're being told we need to step inside. All right. The Chinese ship has moved within 10 meters of the
Philippine boat and is now actually hitting the ship with its water cannon.
So a definite escalation shortly before 8:00 a.m. local time, and now it looks like our ship is taking a turn away from the Chinese ship.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GIOKOS: Ahead on CONNECT THE WORLD, after five years behind bars this Cuban dissident is now living in exile in the U.S.. What he told CNN about his
future after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
GIOKOS: After being locked away in prison for five years, Cuban dissident Luis Manuel Otero Alcantara is now a free man, living in exile in the
United States.
CNN's Carolina Peguero asked him what he thinks lies ahead after leaving his homeland.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CAROLINA PEGUERO, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Holding a statue of Cuba's revered patron saint, we meet Cuban dissident Luis Manuel Otero
Alcantara, fresh out of a Cuban prison and now standing free on the shores of Miami. Close yet still so far from the island, he says he's still
adapting to a new life.
I asked him as he was looking towards the horizon, what are the three emotions and feelings that come to his mind and his heart, and he said,
one, his son, Alejandrito (PH), two, automatic confusion, and three, slowly accepting his new reality.
(Voice-over): And while he's free, he says the mission to push for change on the island is ongoing.
LUIS MANUEL OTERO ALCANTARA, FREED CUBAN DISSIDENT (through text translation): I came here looking for a new horizon to try and change Cuba.
PEGUERO (voice-over): He arrived in Miami on July 18th after nearly five years in a Cuban prison and being granted humanitarian parole by the Trump
administration. A fierce critic of Cuba's censorship and government, a Latin Grammy Award winner for the song "Patria Vida" and co-founder of the
San Isidro Movement, Otero Alcantara had been behind bars since 2021, when the Cuban government launched a sweeping crackdown following the historic
anti-government protests.
OTERO ALCANTARA (through text translation): I remember being happy when I was being detained. I was in the police car with a policeman, another
woman, and a young officer. Over the radio, I heard, "There are 10,000 protesters coming from one side, and more from another." The officers were
asking each other, "What do we do?" There were so many people.
PEGUERO (voice-over): For Miami's Cuban exile community, he's become a symbol of resistance. Our conversation interrupted several times by
supporters who want a picture with him. He also has critics, but Otero Alcantara says he will continue to speak out against the Cuban regime.
[10:55:00]
OTERO ALCANTARA (through text translation): If there is something I've said many times, it's that I will not waste any time because a lost minute is
one more minute of dictatorship. I am going to work hard.
PEGUERO (voice-over): As Cuba continues to grapple with an ongoing energy crisis intensified by U.S. oil blockade on fuel shipments, Otero Alcantara
hopes change in the island comes soon.
OTERO ALCANTARA (through text translation): Five years and protests tied to those still happen. The people are learning, and there will be a happy
ending.
PEGUERO (voice-over): Carolina Peguero, CNN, Miami.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
GIOKOS: Well, that is it for CONNECT THE WORLD. Stay with CNN. "ONE WORLD" is up next. From me, Eleni Giokos. have a great weekend.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
END
