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Erin Burnett Outfront
Poll: Trump Beats Bush in Florida; New Poll: Biden Tops Trump in Three Key Swings States; Trump Moves Pep Rally to Football Stadium; Interview with Jim Webb. Aired 7-8:00p ET
Aired August 20, 2015 - 19:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[19:00:12] JIM SCIUTTO, CNN ANCHOR: OUTFRONT tonight, Trump takes Florida. Donald Trump now leading Jeb Bush in three key swing states, including his home state of Florida.
Plus, Joe Biden not an official candidate showing surprising strengths in the new poll beating Trump across the board, in Ohio and Pennsylvania. What does that mean for Hillary Clinton?
And an inside look at the woman who could be Donald Trump's secret weapon. His daughter Ivanka Trump. Let's go OUTFRONT.
Good evening. I'm Jim Sciutto in again tonight for Erin Burnett. And OUTFRONT tonight, Donald Trump, a new poll showing him with a four-point lead over Jeb Bush in Florida. And Trump holds an even more commanding lead in Iowa, Ohio and Pennsylvania. In fact, today's poll showing Trump topping Florida's other favorite son Marco Rubio in his home state as well. The GOP's frontrunner only struggle today seemed to be with the American icon. In this new video from a photo shoot for "Time" magazine.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: What you will do for a cover. This bird is seriously dangerous but beautiful.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCIUTTO: But that cover headline says it all, deal with it. You might say that was Trump's message to Bush today. Bush was in New Hampshire taking questions from reporters and attacking Trump's conservative credentials. But while painting his rivals' immigration stance as cruel and harmful, Bush himself seemed to stumble over a question about his own choice of words.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Governor, do you regret using the term anchor babies yesterday in the radio?
JEB BUSH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: No, I didn't. I don't. I don't regret it.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You don't regret it?
BUSH: No. Do you have a better term?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCIUTTO: Athena Jones is OUTFRONT tonight. She was at that Bush event in Keene, New Hampshire. Athena, Bush and Trump now engaged not only in a battle in the polls but I mean, certainly a battle of words, too.
ATHENA JONES, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It is a battle of words, Jim. And, you know, up until just a couple of days ago, Bush seemed really hesitant to engage Trump. But that's changing in the face of those sagging poll numbers you mentioned. Now the gloves are finally coming off.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
BUSH: You win when you campaign like this. You don't win when you campaign like this.
JONES (voice-over): Jeb Bush, hitting back at Donald Trump today.
BUSH: You win when you connect with people about their as aspirations. Not about how great you are, how rich you are or how this you are or how that you are. That's not leadership.
JONES: Those remarks coming on the heels of Wednesday's war of words between Bush and Trump. The real estate mogul dissing Bush with comments like this.
TRUMP: I don't see how he is electable. Jeb Bush is a low energy person.
JONES: And echoing an emerging narrative that the former governor isn't energizing voters.
TRUMP: You know what's happening to Jeb's crowd as you know right down the street? They're sleeping. They're sleeping now.
JONES: In fact, one woman dozed off at Bush's town hall today. Even his fans say they are concerned about Bush's lack of energy.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He basically is just flat. He has no energy. And of all of the republican candidates, he is the one that I feel safest with. He would be the one that has the most experience.
JONES: I asked him today how he is going to change that narrative.
BUSH: There's a big difference between Donald Trump and me. I have fought for republican and conservative causes all of my adult life.
JONES: Adding to Bush's pain, new poll numbers show he is struggling, even in his home state of Florida, where he served two terms as governor. He also trails Trump in Iowa, Pennsylvania and here in New Hampshire. A state seen as key to his run.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
JONES: Now, I asked Bush why he is trailing Trump, even in Florida, his home state in this new Quinnipiac poll. He told me, look, he is beating Hillary Clinton in Florida. Trump is losing to her. But that's actually not true. The same poll shows Trump leading Clinton in Florida as well -- Jim.
SCIUTTO: Troubling numbers certainly for the man who was once the leading republican candidate. Athena Jones, thanks very much.
OUTFRONT tonight, Katrina Pierson, spokeswoman for the Tea Party leadership fund and republican strategist Doug Heye and Mercedes Schlapp.
Mercedes, I want to begin with you. Just asking that same question that Athena post to Jeb Bush today. How is Donald Trump leading the GOP race in Bush's home state of Florida?
MERCEDES VIANA SCHLAPP, PRINCIPAL & CO-FOUNDER, COVE STRATEGIES: Well, you know, Donald Trump has been out there with a very straightforward message, you know, on how he is going to be sort of the CEO and chief to -- again like he says, make America great. Focus on the economy and how he's going to bring jobs to America. What do we have as an electorate that's really wanting to hear this message? They feel very unsettled during these economic times. The wages are stagnant. They want someone to say bring the job back. How are we going to deal with illegal immigration in this country? But yet, it's so interesting for Governor Jeb Bush, he is finally fighting back. It is finally becoming like the battle of the Titans. And really, who is going to win the republican universe? And that's where I think Governor Jeb Bush needs to go. If he wants to be part of this game, he's going to have to fight Donald Trump in hoping to get some attention from the media.
[19:05:20] SCIUTTO: Katrina, I have to ask you because Trump goes after Bush, of course, saying that he is boring. Bush goes after Trump saying he is actually more democrat than republican. Have a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BUSH: I'm a proven conservative with a record. He isn't. He has been a democrat longer than being a republican.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCIUTTO: He has donated to multiple democratic candidates as we know. He was pro-choice before he was pro-life. Does the former Governor Bush have a point about Trump's conservativism?
KATRINA PIERSON, SPOKESWOMAN, TEA PARTY LEADERSHIP FUND: Well, he does. And he makes -- there's a point to be made of several of the candidates running today that have been on one side or the other at one point. And Trump has explained his donations as a businessman at his level, he has been able to play both sides. And he says, even he is tired of that. And that's one of the reasons why he is running. And look, yes, so Jeb Bush is starting to fight back. But even him fighting back is lethargic. And then this little reporter even got him to backtrack on what he said to begin with. It's very weak. And he's going to have to do much better than that if he wants to get in the ring with Mr. Trump.
SCIUTTO: Doug, I have to ask you, because you know, what the effect is going to be on wider party. I mean, Hillary Clinton today, she released a new bilingual ad and that is key suggesting that Bush is no different from Trump when it comes to immigration. Here's a clip of that.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: I will use the word anchor baby.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Better enforcement so that you don't have these, you know, anchor babies, as they're described, coming into the country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCIUTTO: In effect, you have Hillary Clinton equating Trump and Bush on this key issue of the Latino vote. You remember, post-2012, the GOP had a plan in part to win back Latinos. It's right here. But certainly straying from that plan in this race early on. Aren't you a party as -- as a party alienating Latinos once again?
DOUG HEYE, FORMER RNC COMMUNICATIONS DIRECTOR: You know, that's certainly something that Hillary Clinton has gone to once again. We saw her do that in her initial press conference when she was asked about e-mails a few weeks ago. It's a very shrewd move by the Bush camp or by -- excuse me, by Hillary Clinton and her campaign. But ultimately I think Mercedes referred to this as the battle of the Titans. This election season is so far is been so crazy, it's almost more like the battle of the network stars.
(LAUGHTER)
But ultimately it comes down to issues, it comes down to, how you can best articulate those issues. And that's why I think Jeb Bush right now is really playing the role of the tortoise and not the hare that Donald Trump is.
SCIUTTO: No, I mean, listen, it sounds nice to say battle of the network stars. But certainly there are a lot of attention here, there are real issues here. And immigration is one of them. And there are people taking this, certainly in the Latino community, taking this very seriously. They're taking it as an insult. Katrina, I have to ask you, is your candidate in effect sinking the GOP's chances of winning back the White House? Might be drawing crowds today, but how are they going to draw the votes they need to win back the White House?
PIERSON: Look, that autopsy report was drafted by the same old establishment consultants that are flipping out right now because Donald Trump is out there saying what needs to be said. We know as grass-roots people on the ground, this has to be done. I live in the state of Texas with the same, quote-unquote, "rhetoric" that was used this last election cycle. And Republicans here won Hispanics fighting back against illegal immigration and you can look at the polls. Everybody wants this issue addressed. Not in a nice way, in a politically correct way. The American people need somebody out there fighting for them for a change.
SCHLAPP: Katrina, Katrina, we need 45 percent of the Latinos to back the GOP candidate in order to win in 2016. At least 45 percent.
PIERSON: That's not true, Mercedes.
SCHLAPP: Yes, it is. Yes it is.
PIERSON: That's not true.
(CROSSTALK)
SCHLAPP: As a Latino republican -- you do need both. You need the base as well. But can't we find a middle ground? And we cannot be turning off Latinos. But I will tell you with the GOP candidates, I mean, we have a broad range of where they are in the immigration issue. Donald Trump on one end and then you have more of the, you know, Governor Christie, Governor Bush, Senator Marco Rubio, where they are trying to find a way to figure out how we're going to deal with illegal immigration and those that have been in our country, those 11 million undocumented workers that have been in our country. We do need to modernize our immigration system. But by using bad rhetoric --
(CROSSTALK)
PIERSON: -- he will actually having this discussion.
SCHLAPP: Absolutely.
SCIUTTO: Doug, I have to ask you because this is the essential disagreement in the party right now, how do you get that vote? I mean, we have, you know, diametrically opposed points of views here. Is there a way forward -- what is the way forward for the Republican Party on this issue?
HEYE: I think the way forward for the Republican Party is to first emphasize, you close down that border. That's the first and foremost thing to do. And then you start to address the other problems that come along --
SCIUTTO: But the debate has moved beyond closing down the border. Because the debate is not just about closing down the border. It's about kicking out not just 11 million illegals here but children who were born here and have citizenship. The debate has moved far beyond building a bigger fence.
[19:10:14] HEYE: Absolutely. There are a lot of voters who react negatively to that. And also, one of the problems that Donald Trump is going to have moving forward is, how is he going to pay for all of this?
SCHLAPP: That's right.
HEYE: This is going to cost billions and billions of dollars. And it may require a tax increase, which is something that he probably doesn't want to tell republican voters to do. But Jim, one thing we ought to keep in mind, you know, you go back a few years ago, I worked in the House of Representatives at the time when the Republicans did something they really shouldn't have done. They shut down the government. And we were told at the time that it was going to be a disaster for Republicans in the elections in 2014. And it turned out that it really wasn't. Because Republicans were able to eventually focus on a unifying message, echo that message throughout the country over and over again and have victories. We can do that once we move past this circus that we're still in.
SCIUTTO: Well, we were certainly in that circus it seems today. Doug, I want to thank you. Mercedes, Katrina as well. We will going to keep up the conversation. Thanks for joining us tonight.
And OUTFRONT next, Joe Biden, not even a declared candidate but a new poll shows him beating Donald Trump in three key states. Will Biden jump into the race?
Plus, Donald Trump speaking tomorrow to what may be his biggest crowd yet. Can he possibly fill more than 40,000 seats?
And Ivanka Trump now said to be her father's top advisor. Could this 33-year-old former model and successful businesswoman help put Trump over the top?
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:14:46] SCIUTTO: Tonight, Biden topping Trump. Clinton not so much. New polling from the key swing state of Florida shows Joe Biden, who has not declared his candidacy by the way, beating Donald Trump in a head to head matchup. Hillary Clinton on the other hand losing the state to the GOP frontrunner. And in Ohio and Pennsylvania, two other key swing states, Biden and Clinton both beating Trump but Biden has a wider lead.
Jeff Zeleny is OUTFRONT tonight. So, Jeff, no candidate has won the national election since 1960 without taking at least two out of three of those states. Clinton losing to Trump in Florida. How tough is that for her campaign right now?
JEFF ZELENY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Jim, I think it's just reflective of the fact that she's in the middle of a campaign. She's been, you know, some five months under way or so and she's really had a pretty rough summer with the whole e-mail controversy. And, you know, everyone in this big republican field taking her on. Joe Biden has been on the sidelines. So, Joe Biden still has this halo hanging over him from all the sort of goodwill that he has done as vice president. So, it's not exactly an apples to apples matchup. The minute he would get in, if he decides to get in, which we still don't know yet, he would be right down in the middle of the rough and tumble as well here.
So, important to remember, these are basically within the margin of error here. But some worry signs for the Clinton campaign. They thought that she would run away with a head to head matchup with Donald Trump. We're finding out now again in the second poll in a row, that's just not true. Republicans are coalescing around the idea of a Trump candidacy and they certainly do not like her.
SCIUTTO: Part of the cloud of the Clinton campaign is the e-mail controversy and the team making a full court press trying to diffuse that, surrounding her use of course of the private e-mail account server while she was secretary of state. Now both her campaign spokesman and communications director all over TV yesterday and today. You know, democrat even Clinton supporters, they are still worried.
ZELENY: They are worried because they believe the campaign has been too slow to react to this. They like what they see about, you know, the response in the last 24 hours or so. But I have talked to several Democrats who have been like, where have they been? Why aren't they taking this seriously? So, the Clinton campaign is going through what is called an education campaign to try and say, oh, this is nothing but a partisan witch-hunt. But the reality is, you know, Democrats, you know, who notoriously nervous around this time of year, they really wonder if there's more there. So, sometimes Hillary Clinton has laughed about it. Sometimes she has been defiant about it. The Democrats I talked to want a little bit more consistency and want the campaign to address it. That's what they've started to do, Jim. But I'm not sure if it's enough yet so far. Left to wait and see.
SCIUTTO: It's hard to call it a partisan witch-hunt when there are Democrats as well who have raised questions about it. Jeff Zeleny, thanks very much in Washington.
OUTFRONT tonight, Clinton campaign Press Secretary Brian Fallon. Brian, thank you for joining us and taking the time. You heard Jeff, what he is hearing from Clinton supporters who are worried about the campaign being too slow to respond. Has it been too slow to respond to this and the candidate?
BRIAN FALLON, PRESS SECRETARY FOR HILLARY CLINTON CAMPAIGN: We don't think so. But there is a lot of misinformation out there. And as Jeff said, we're engaged in an education campaign, if you will. But for the last several weeks and months, she has been doing media availabilities after all of her events, answering questions on the trail. We've had, frequently asked questions, documenting on our website for several weeks now. We are attempting to answer everyone's questions.
SCIUTTO: But when you look at the polling numbers and when you see favorability ratings and trustworthy ratings falling, clearly those answers are not sufficient. I just wonder if the candidate -- if Hillary Clinton has to admit here, I made a mistake. FALLON: Well, she has said that she regrets the decision to use
her personal e-mail. That if she had to do it over again, she would. That said, she didn't do anything wrong. The practice was in keeping with that of past secretaries of state. It was permitted by the State Department of policy that was in place at the time. But nonetheless, she has said she would do it differently. But I think that a lot is being made too much in fact about this idea of that this is causing some major drop in her favorability. In fact, your poll yesterday, CNN's poll showed her favorability was pretty stable with where it was in May. I think it was only two points off. So, I think a lot more is being made of that.
SCIUTTO: Let me give you some more. Clinton's favorability ratings down from 44 percent in June to 36 percent. Percentage, you see her as honest and trustworthy down from 40 to 34 percent. Percentage say, she has strong leadership qualities down from 60 to 53 percent. Those who say she cares about the needs and problems of people like you and me from 40 to 43 a minute, that's a number of measures all tied to that kind of credibility and trustworthy questions that are down across the board.
[19:19:18] FALLON: So, what we know is because she's the frontrunner right now, that there is going to be a lot of scrutiny of her. And it's not going to be newsy when she leads the democratic field every time and every polls. It's not going to be newsy when she leads every republican into head to head matchup. It's not going to be newsy when she has the highest favorabilities of any candidate that has --
SCIUTTO: This is not day story. I mean, this decline that is happening consistently over the time.
FALLON: But the fundamentals -- her fundamentals are better than any other candidate in the race. There's not a single candidate on either side of the aisle, I don't think that would want to -- that wouldn't take the opportunity to trade places with her in a heartbeat.
SCIUTTO: Well, let me ask you about a different question. So, this goes down to key swing states. A new poll showing Trump beating Clinton in the key swing state of Florida. But Joe Biden, of course, who is not a declared candidate, as you know, beating Trump there. This can't be good news for Hillary Clinton.
FALLON: Well, with respect to that poll specifically, there's some questions about the methodology of it and that they have oversampled Republicans in our opinion. If you look at sample that Quinnipiac -- Houston, Florida and Ohio, those swing states in 2012. They have -- they are tilted in favor of Republicans. So, we grant them that if the republican turnout model is what they are using as the premise for that poll, then sure Republicans will do well.
SCIUTTO: I heard you made that point earlier today. And I talked to our polling people. And, you know, smart people say, it's not vastly --
FALLON: In Florida, it's a nine-point different. They are estimating the republican turnout will be a nine-point difference in 2012.
SCIUTTO: Let me ask you this. Biden is also a democrat. And he is still winning. And when you look solely, so you take out the republican democratic vote, you look solely at the independent vote in Florida, of course, a key swing state, Clinton still loses. You see it right there, 37 percent to 42 percent to Donald Trump. That's just the independent vote there.
FALLON: Okay. Well, all I can say is despite that number, we would be more than happy to take on Donald Trump in a general election.
SCIUTTO: That's the candidate you would prefer to.
FALLON: We'll be happy to run against any of the republican field because right now, they are all mimicking Donald Trump. And he is the standard bearer. He has been a pretty consistent frontrunner since the debates. And that's why I think you are seeing Jeb Bush try to copy his rhetoric on immigration.
SCIUTTO: If I can -- just to look back eight years ago, we look back to the race in 2008. Among Democrats at the time, Clinton was nearly exact same spot she is today. You know, the presumptive democratic nominee. She was the leading then Senator Obama by 20 points, about the lead that she has over Bernie Sanders today. Can you be certain that her support won't fade as it did then this time around?
FALLON: Oh, I think if you look at every poll, her standing among Democrats -- we're in a primarily campaign. So notwithstanding the fact that she's beating every republican in the head to heads when those surveys come out. We're in a primary campaign right now. And her approval ratings with Democrats, her favorability among Democrats is sky high. If you look at your own poll again yesterday, she's not only beating the field by a wide margin, but when you add in voters' second choice, which is an important consideration in a state like Iowa, in terms of how the caucus works, she's got three-fourths of Democrats locked up in terms of those who say that they would support her today. So, we think her support among Democrats runs very strong.
SCIUTTO: Brian Fallon, Clinton campaign secretary, thanks very much for joining us tonight.
FALLON: Thanks.
SCIUTTO: OUTFRONT next, Donald Trump's next campaign event. Can the republican frontrunner fill this football stadium? And a new fire storm surrounding the Iran nuclear deal. I'll talk to a democrat running for president who strongly opposes the deal.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:26:36] SCIUTTO: Welcome back. Tonight, preparations are under way for what Donald Trump says will be his biggest campaign rally yet, a football stadium in Mobile, Alabama filled with 30 to 40,000 supporters, according to the campaign. Trump of course not shy about talking up his crowd size while playing down those of his opponents.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Right down the road, we have Jeb. Very small crowd. We have 2,500. There are other rooms -- the overflow rooms all over this building, they have closed circuit television. There are people outside with speakers.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCIUTTO: Will Trump really be able to fill all those seats tomorrow?
Sunlen Serfaty is OUTFRONT.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
TRUMP: It's the summer of Trump. You know, they're calling it the summer of Trump.
SUNLEN SERFATY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Donald Trump's summer campaign tour is one hot ticket. Routinely drawing packed houses, crowds of thousands. And he is hoping on Friday he will really have something to write home about. Now the campaign already boasting that due to an overwhelming response, the venue for his rally in Alabama had to be changed, twice. It was first scheduled to take place here in a modest theater in the civic center, occupancy, 1,900 people. Then moved to the center's larger main arena, which can hold 10,000. But then picked up and moved again. Now blocks away to this 50,000 capacity college football stadium. The campaign says they already have 35,000 RSVPs.
TRUMP: They're going to end up being 30,000 to 40,000 people in Alabama. So --
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
SERFATY: But Trump has been known to exaggerate crowd counts before.
TRUMP: It has been amazing. And outside, sadly, we have thousands of people that can't get in.
SERFATY: There's no denying Trump's drawing a stark contrast to his opponents like Rick Santorum who only had two people show up at this Iowa diner in June. Bad optics win enthusiasm is a key signal of support.
DAN PFEIFFER, FORMER SENIOR ADVISOR FOR PRESIDENT OBAMA: In politics, success belies success. So, if people see an enthusiastic crowd, they're going to think you are doing well. They will going to be more likely to come and join that crowd.
SERFATY: Going a long way for candidates like democrat Bernie Sanders who holds the record for the biggest crowd so far this campaign, 19,000 people. And another senator in 2008 -- PRES. BARACK OBAMA (D), UNITED STATES: Unbelievable.
SERFATY: The crowds that defined then candidate Obama's early campaign ignite in his candidacy.
PFEIFFER: They hear all their friends going to the Obama rally. They see on the news -- buy tickets for the Obama rally. And they would say, maybe I should check that out too.
SERFATY: But crowd count is not everything.
MIKE HUCKABEE (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You win by organizing and building structure in those counties, because it's not how many headlines you get. It's how many voters show up at the caucuses and the primaries.
SERFATY: But the attention certainly touches a nerve for those in the shadow of Trump's summer spotlight.
BUSH: It made a little news not as much as Donald Trump and all the other things. They're so important for our democracy.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SERFATY: And there's a big risk for campaigns to move to bigger venues. If they don't fill it up, it looks really bad for the candidate to have all those empty seats. The weather will also be a risk for Trump tomorrow. It is Alabama. It is the summer. It's supposed to be nearly 90 degrees tomorrow with a chance for thunderstorms. So, Jim, this is also all happening in an outside stadium -- Jim.
SCIUTTO: Sunlen Serfaty in Washington.
OUTFRONT tonight, Sandy Stimpson. He's the mayor of Mobile, Alabama, where Trump will hold his event tomorrow night.
Mayor Stimpson, thanks so much for taking the time tonight.
MAYOR SANDY STIMPSON, MOBILE, ALABAMA: Great to be here.
SCIUTTO: So, the Trump campaign telling us they are expecting about 35,000 people. They have been known to exaggerate their numbers at times. But Trump certainly does attract a lot of people. How many people do you expect at the rally?
STIMPSON: Well, I'm going to go with their numbers. They're the ones that know how many people have signed up. So, there's a lot of reason to be excited here that this thing has gone viral once they started this process.
SCIUTTO: Mayor, you know the people of Mobile better than anyone. Are the folks heading to the rally tomorrow, from your perspective, are they Trump supporters or are they going in part for Friday night entertainment? STIMPSON: Well, it's hard to measure that right now. But, you
know, honestly, Donald Trump creates a lot of excitement wherever he goes. There's a lot to be excited about just in the city of Mobile right now. I think we will have to measure after the event and see what people think. But we will welcome, you know, anybody coming on the presidential tour. We are delighted Donald Trump chose us first.
SCIUTTO: Now, this is an outdoor venue. Are there concerns about weather tomorrow night?
STIMPSON: Well, if you know anything about mobile, we do have a lot of afternoon thunderstorms. We're hoping that tomorrow night will be pretty. And if it doesn't, we have plan B. We will go to one of the other venues. But we will be ready regardless of the rain.
SCIUTTO: So, there's an indoor venue big enough to handle a crowd that size?
STIMPSON: No, it's not big enough. It will be a smaller crowd. But I still think it will be a very exciting crowd and show the excitement that's been generated in the city.
SCIUTTO: All right. Great. Well, Mayor Stimpson, thanks very much for taking the time tonight.
STIMPSON: Thank you. We look forward to seeing Mr. Trump tomorrow.
SCIUTTO: We'll be watching.
Douglas Brinkley is a CNN presidential historian.
Douglas, you have been studying presidents and campaigns for a long time. What compares with what we're seeing from Trump? I think of President Obama for instnacein Berlin in. What compares?
DOUGLAS BRINKLEY, CNN PRESIDENTIAL HISTORIAN: Well, look, this kind of crowd, it's almost unique in the middle of August to be able to fill up a football stadium in Alabama. I mean, it is a little bit like Barack Obama. There's an excitement to see this person.
This is like a Billy Graham crusade going through the South now. I think that you are seeing Trump launch his southern strategy. He has to hit of 30,000 mark. He's put that marker up there. I think he wants to say his crowd is larger than Bernie Sanders who, so far, has generated the largest crowds on the campaign trail.
SCIUTTO: I mean, you are right, it's a bit of an expectations game. The stadium tomorrow night, there's a risk here, right? Because it can hold as many as 50,000 people. If you fall below that number, there'd be a lot of empty seats.
BRINKLEY: Yes, a helicopter view of a stadium that has a lot of empty seats. So, he's going to play on that 30,000 number. I think his campaign has a lot at stake of finding people, getting them there, enticing people to come, because the whole international media gaggle is going to be there covering this.
I will be curious to see whether he has a warm-up act, whether there's music, how he treats it. And I think part of the allure is Trump's apt to say anything. We want to see what he might say next. It's a bit of spectacle.
SCIUTTO: I have to ask you tonight -- we have talked about this. In every election there's a hot candidate early on who captures attention but often fades. If you think of Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry last time around.
Based on your experience watching these campaigns, do you look at this campaign as one that's a flash in the pan or that has a lasting, staying power?
BRINKLEY: I do not. I think he is not a flash in the pan. He has a billion he's willing to spend. But he's a master manipulator of the media, including cable television. He knows exactly what producers to hit up, what shows to get on. That's free media. He is not buying TV commercial time.
That makes him the first really 21st century new media presidential candidate. Nobody has been quite like him.
SCIUTTO: The first 21st century new media presidential -- thanks very much, Douglas Brinkley.
OUTFRONT next, uproar in Washington over a new report on the details of the Iran nuclear deal. My guest, Democratic presidential candidate who opposes that deal.
And Ivanka Trump advising, even criticizing her father on the campaign trail. Ahead, how Ivanka became Trump's top adviser.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:38:44] SCIUTTO: Tonight, uproar over a deal that allows Iran to take part in inspections of one of its most sensitive suspected nuclear sites and do some of the work on its own. House Speaker John Boehner quickly slamming the White House in a statement saying, quote, "The Obama administration has a lot of explaining to do."
The chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Ed Royce, saying the deal is, quote, "A dangerous farce." And senator and presidential candidate Lindsey Graham saying this is a case of allowing the inmates to run the jail.
Now, I have spoken to several officials who say the reality is different. They say that the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog will, quote, "have total oversight of inspections", though they admit that Iran will have a role. But critics see another example of the administration caving to Iran.
OUTFRONT tonight, Democratic presidential candidate and former senator from the great state of Virginia, Jim Webb.
Senator Webb, thank you for joining us.
JIM WEBB (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Good to be with you.
SCIUTTO: You are on the record against this deal. Of course, you are a Democrat. You campaigned for Obama in 2008 and 2012. If elected, would you tear up this agreement?
WEBB: Well, I have been opposed to this agreement for a number of reasons. One is that this should have been something that should have been put before the Congress rather than it being an executive agreement.
And the other is the approach that is just focusing on a nuclear agreement when we have to look at the balance of power in the region and the signals that have been sent in the region in terms of Iran's growing power. That's the reason I imposed the invasion of Iraq was that it was going to empower Iran. Now that they have been empowered, I think it's the wrong time for an agreement like this.
SCIUTTO: Do you buy the administration's argument repeated all the time, the president repeated it -- if we don't make this deal really the only other option is war.
WEBB: No, I do not -- I do not agree with that. I think that the focus on this deal has been on a slowing down the potential acquisition of nuclear weapons by Iran. We have never been in this situation before where we have give a tacit approval for the acquisition of nuclear weapons by another country. It hasn't come up with any conversations with respect to the Soviet Union when I was in the Pentagon during the Reagan administration.
And we have haven't seen any sort of reciprocating signals from Iran. We used to call them confidence builders with the Soviets. We just haven't seen it. Separate from the details of this agreement is the impact on the region if we were to do it.
SCIUTTO: Let's talk about the region, because, of course, Iran not the only issue. We were just about a year into the U.S.-led air campaign against ISIS. But you look at a number of measures and the Pentagon calls it a stalemate on the ground. If you were elected, what would you do to win the war against ISIS? What is this administration not doing?
WEBB: Well, in terms of that entire region, I think the two most important strategic objectives we have as a country first is to bring -- help bring stability to the region and the aftermath of the Iraq war has created an enormous amount of instability, as has the approach of the administration with the Arab Spring.
The second issue -- I know you care about this -- is the number one long-term strategic goal of the United States is -- has to be a different relationship with China, economically and militarily.
SCIUTTO: I want to ask you about that. That was part of President Obama's legacy, it was meant to be, the pivot to Asia. I travel a lot, as you do. You go to Asia, you go to Europe, you go to the Middle East, and you speak to officials and not just people on the street.
There has been a loss of respect for American -- that's not just a partisan talking point. There has been a loss of respect.
Do you think that the Obama administration has diminished American power?
WEBB: First of all, we led the pivot toward Asia out of my office when I was in the Senate on the Foreign Relations and Armed Services Committee two years before this administration came in. We started this.
And the reason that we started it was that we had not paid proper attention on a lot of different levels to what was happening in the region, the balance of power, the fragile balance of power that has existed among Japan, Russia and China. I have been talking about the Spratly Islands for 15 years and also the Senkaku Islands for that period of time.
SCIUTTO: But has this administration diminished that power?
WEBB: Well, I think we need to have a proper signal to China that we will react when they have expanded the way that they have in the region. They have claimed an area, as you know, that is about 2 million square kilometers of ocean as a prefecture to China. We have not signaled the right way to address that, which I think also should include looking at economic measures against China.
SCIUTTO: No question, Senator Jim Webb, thanks for taking the time. We wish you good luck.
WEBB: My pleasure to be here. Thank you.
SCIUTTO: OUTFRONT next, Ivanka Trump at 33, a huge success in businesses ranging from real estate to jewelry, fashion and entertainment. Now, her father's betting or her to be his closest adviser. We have a special report.
And, reality TV star Josh Duggar, once a champion of family values, now exposed by hackers for cheating on his wife.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:47:55] SCIUTTO: Reality TV star Josh Duggar outed by hackers of the cheating Web site Ashley Madison. Duggar is seen here in 2008, was exposed after they released the customer information of some 32 million members of the site.
The star of the now canceled hit reality show "19 Kids and Counting", said in a statement today, quote, "I have been biggest hypocrite ever while espousing faith and family values. I have been viewing pornography over the internet and I became unfaithful to my wife."
Earlier this year, it was discovered that Duggar had molested girls, including his sisters, when he was a teenager. Duggar recently apologized for those actions as well.
And Donald Trump's secret weapon may well be his daughter Ivanka. She is a highly successful business woman and author of reality TV star, a mother of two, and a former model, and by many accounts, her father's closest political adviser.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Ivanka is so much into that whole issue of women's health and women. And she's my guide on that subject.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SCIUTTO: So, can Ivanka Trump guide her father to victory?
Alexandra Field is OUTFRONT.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
IVANKA TRUMP, DONALD TRUMP'S DAUGHTER: Welcome, everybody.
ALEXANDRA FIELD, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): Ivanka, center stage and out on the stomp, the chief campaigning for her father Donald Trump.
IVANKA TRUMP: My father succeeds time and time again where government has faield before him.
DONALD TRUMP: Wait, wait. Ivanka, wait.
FIELD: Dad first hired her for "The Apprentice." Now when he comes under fire making controversial comments about women, she comes to his defense.
DONALD TRUMP: Ivanka said, dad, you love women. You cherish women. She said that. She used the word "cherish". She said, you respect women. You have so many women working for you, probably more women executives than male executives. She said, dad, you've got to let people know how much you adore women and how you will take care of them.
FIELD: At 33 years old, Ivanka is a top executive within the Trump Organization.
[19:50:00] IVANKA TRUMP: Hello, I'm Ivanka Trump, and I'd like to welcome to you Trump International Hotel and Tower in Toronto.
FIELD: And an entrepreneur, with a jewelry line, a clothing line, and a lifestyle Web site that celebrates women who work.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Modern.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Passionate.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Women who work. FIELD: And for years, she has worked with her father.
IVANKA TRUMP: I have the unique perspective of being by his side every day and understanding how incredibly capable and just what an amazing visionary he is.
FIELD: In the early stages of the campaign, it's clear it's Donald's daughter, Trump and wife Melania.
EMILY GREENHOUSE, BLOOMBERG POLITICS REPORTER: Well, she is born and bred Trump. And I think part of being in the Trump family you are always a brand. From a very young age she is a brand. She's been in the business world longer than her stepmother Melania, who is not very much older than she is.
And I think Ivanka is more of a known entity already. Again, Melania has posed naked on the cover of magazines. That's something even in our modern country would be unusual for a first lady.
FIELD: Trump told "The Hollywood Reporter", Melania will join him on the trail to highlight women's issues. But it was daughter Ivanka who announced her father's run, a former model taking her place as the campaign's poster child.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
FIELD: Along with announcing her father's presidential run from Trump tower here in New York City, Ivanka also traveled to New Hampshire to open up his campaign headquarters there. She is one of Donald Trump's five children and a mother to two of her own children -- Jim.
SCIUTTO: Alexandra Field in New York. And OUTFRONT next, a horrific story of kidnapping, rape and racial hatred, and it made Al Sharpton a household name. That's next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:56:26] SCIUTTO: Tonight at 9:00 on CNN, "Evocateur: The Morton Downey Jr. Movie." Downey's top show was like nothing ever seen before, shocking, angry, often violent. One story had all those elements, including allegations of rape and racism, which turned out to be entirely made up. It had a spokesman who knew how to stir the pot.
Jason Carroll has the story of Tawana Brawley and Al Sharpton.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The Tawana Brawley story has been a sensation.
JASON CARROLL, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): It was the story of 1987, one almost too terrible to believe.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Tawana Brawley said they left her nearly dead, a gang of white men who raped her and scrolled racial epithets on her body.
CARROLL: Brawley, 15, also claimed the gang smeared feces in her hair, tortured her and stuffed her in a bag.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: She's in a daze and everything still hazes.
CARROLL: The story set in the backdrop of racially charged New York City, already reeling from the death of a young black man chased to his death across a highway by white teens in Howard Beach, Queens.
Fueling the fire during the tense days, Brawley's attorneys and her spokesman, the Reverend Al Sharpton.
AL SHARPTON: You touch your filthy hands on our daughters.
CARROLL: Sharpton rises from obscurity, convincing celebrities like Bill Cosby and Mike Tyson to support Brawley and appearing on popular talk shows like the "Morton Downey Jr. Show".
MORTON DOWNEY, JR., TV HOST: He can heat up anything in a hurry.
CARROLL: In true Downey fashion, one of Sharpton's appearances on the show ends in a brawl.
When not duke it out on stage, Sharpton going after Brawley's attackers, people like Steven Pagones who at the time was a 26-year- old assistant prosecutor.
STEVEN PAGONES, WRONGLY ACCUSED OF RAPE BY BRAWLEY: Tawana Brawley is as guilty of perpetuating this lie as her advisers.
It was so scary. Every time I turned around, I was getting a death threat.
CARROLL: Pagones and the others accused declare their innocence, all while Brawley's story falls apart. Finally, after a lengthy investigation, a grand jury found she had lied.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Tawana Brawley is not the victim of a forcible sexual assault by multiple assailants. In the years since, Sharpton has rehabilitated his image, gaining respectability, even running for president. Yet never apologizing for his role in the Brawley case.
Neither has Brawley. She's now 43 years old. And at last check, was living in Virginia, at one point working as a nurse.
(on camera): Thought maybe you may want to reach out to us as well?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: First of all, you need to put that camera.
CARROLL (voice-over): Her stepfather asked us to leave when we tried asking if Brawley would apologize for falsely naming Pagones.
Craig Wolf covered the story for years. CRAIG WOLFF, AUTHOR: Still, no real ribbon put on it. No
acknowledgement by the principles that we went too far with this.
CARROLL (on camera): Is there any anger that no apology from her, no apology from the Al Sharptons of the world?
PAGONES: An apology means absolutely nothing to me. I know most people know the truth. But I want them to say it.
CARROLL (voice-over): Jason Carol, CNN, New York.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
SCIUTTO: We will note tonight that Pagones sued for slander and won. Al Sharpton had to pay him $65,000. Brawley was ordered to pay $187,000, but only paid a small portion. Sharpton did not return calls seeking comment.
The CNN film "Evocateur" airs tonight at 9:00 p.m. Eastern, and there's a live Q&A about the case happening right now on our Facebook page. Thanks for joining us again tonight. It's been a pleasure.
"AC360" starts right now.
