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Erin Burnett Outfront
First Election Day Polls Open In Just 5 Hours; "If" He Wins?; Path To 270. Aired 7-8p ET
Aired November 04, 2024 - 19:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[19:00:32]
ERIN BURNETT, CNN HOST: OUTFRONT next:
Down to the wire. We are in the final hours before Election Day and new reporting about the thinking inside the Harris campaign at this hour, even as new numbers show promise for the vice president. Harris senior adviser David Plouffe is my guest.
Plus, new insight into Trump's mindset in these final hours. Why he is getting more ruthless in his final days, and his campaign has gone from saying that he will win to if he wins in an internal memo.
And we are live in the swing states, from Pennsylvania to Arizona tonight. John King here to map it all out for you in the magic wall.
Let's go OUTFRONT.
(MUSIC)
BURNETT: And good evening. I'm Erin Burnett.
OUTFRONT tonight, it is the final sprint. We are just five hours away from the first votes being cast on Election Day in New Hampshire. At this moment, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are holding rallies just eight miles apart in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Harris is about to take the stage at what will be the second of three rallies she's holding in Pennsylvania today.
Moments ago, Harris herself actually knocking on doors talking to voters in Reading, Pennsylvania. As we've seen, today, Harris avoided mentioning her opponent's name at all today.
As for him, we are also expecting Trump to start speaking to supporters any moment. And the closing arguments from the two candidates are starkly different.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KAMALA HARRIS, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES & 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: America is ready for a fresh start, and America is ready for a new way forward, where we see our fellow American not as an enemy, but as a neighbor. We are ready.
DONALD TRUMP, FORMER U.S. PRESIDENT & 2024 PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Kamala, you're fired. Get the hell out of here! You're fired.
You know, she's a very -- very low IQ person.
She's violated her oath of office.
She's incompetent.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BURNETT: Well, tonight, a nation is on edge, and the final polls are in. Polls -- may be polls have still all we got until the votes come in.
NPR/Marist poll showing Harris gaining some ground, now leading Trump among likely voters, 51 to 47. That lead outside the margin of error. This is where all the polls have gone over the past 48 hours, sort of in a clump.
Whatever happens, this is an incredible moment because nearly 80 million Americans have already voted, and that is a great thing. No matter who wins, it will all come down, though, to tomorrow.
Priscilla Alvarez is OUTFRONT live in Pittsburgh at the Harris rally.
And, Priscilla, I know you've got some new reporting from the campaign tonight. What are they telling you in these final hours?
PRISCILLA ALVAREZ, CNN WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Yeah. Erin, a Harris advisor telling me tonight that the directive from the vice president and her campaign senior team to staffers is to keep their heads down and mobilize voters. And that is exactly what we have been seeing the vice president do over the course of the day as she crisscrosses Pennsylvania.
Of course, campaign officials have been projecting confidence about the multiple pathways they say they have to 270 electoral votes. Pennsylvania, however, is key to those pathways.
Now, the vice president trying to tap into the good vibes that she benefited from the outset of her campaign, drawing that stark contrast with former President Donald Trump, who has embraced dark rhetoric and said the vice president, not even mentioning him by name over the course of the day as she tried to appeal to Latino voters earlier, part of the state that has a sizable portion of Latino voters, and also we expect the same here in Pittsburgh later tonight. Before then, she concludes her time here in Pennsylvania, in Philadelphia.
Now, I should also say that what is at play in a state like this is the ground game. I've been talking to senior campaign officials over the last year who say they have been building out their infrastructure in the final hours of this presidential election, it is that ground game that they are banking on. They feel as though they have field offices in the red rural counties where they can peel off those GOP votes from former President Donald Trump, but they also have them in the cities and the suburbs, and again, in those areas that are Latino dense. And so, certainly, that ground game, they say, is what will pay off in the end. Of course, that remains to be seen but the other thing campaign officials are saying is that they intend to stay, quote, calm and confident as the votes come in. One source telling me that internally, the mood is shifting from, we could win this thing to it could be a toss up. And certainly that is what all Americans will be watching for tomorrow and in the days to come.
[19:05:02]
But again, Erin, no doubt that Pennsylvania is crucial for the Harris campaign. It is the reason why the vice president chose to crisscross this state in her final hours on the campaign trail.
BURNETT: All right. Final day entirely there in the state where you are tonight, Priscilla, at that rally, thank you.
All right, so everyone's here with me.
So, David Axelrod, I mentioned the poll because we've just seen this you know, whatever the hurting that Nate Silver was talking about, whether that happened.
DAVID AXELROD, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yes, yeah.
BURNETT: You know, that there was kind of hurting and scared and it's tied. And now, they've moved in the direction of Harris. We'll see whether this is the way it goes or not.
Two weeks ago, though, a lot of things hadn't happened. The Puerto Rican comment had not happened in Madison Square Garden. Things hadn't happened at that time. You'd said you'd rather be the Trump campaign than the Harris campaign.
Do you feel differently now?
AXELROD: I do actually. I mean, I don't feel differently in the sense that I said I would not make a prediction then, and I won't make a prediction now. This thing is so close that no result would shock me, but I have to say that Donald Trump has had a terrible close to this campaign, not just the rally, but every single day he seems to take his campaign into states that they don't want to be and he's not delivering the message that the campaign is delivering on television in its ads that they think is their most effective message.
Meanwhile, you know, people have criticized Kamala Harris for being too cautious, and she told Charlamagne Tha God that -- well, caution is some people's caution is another person's discipline. She's been very disciplined down the stretch and she's delivered a very consistent message, and it's consistent with what she has on TV. And it was all about that enemies list versus the to-do list.
And she's basically capitalizing on his negative energy using jujitsu against him. And I think it's been very effective.
BURNETT: She doesn't mention him today at all. And we heard what he's saying about her, low IQ, you know, usual for him.
SCOTT JENNINGS, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yeah. Well, she's -- believe me, she's mentioned him plenty. I mean, their campaigns entire bet has been that there's just enough people in this country who hate or are willing to fear Donald Trump to win the election. That's why she's been overly cautious.
They don't think they need to do anything proactive because they think there's just enough people to pull that off. Well see if they're right.
I've been chatting with the Trump campaign tonight. He's got his closing argument. Speaking of closing arguments, he's going to say apparently, that we don't have to live this way, we don't have to settle for weakness and competence decline and decay.
He'll stress inflation, immigration, restoring peace in the world and rescuing the American dream. So that is that is what they intend, intend for him to do this evening.
BURNETT: I'm glad. I'm glad that you said they say intend. Not even he intends.
(CROSSTALK)
JENNINGS: Well, I learned my lesson at the convention, so I'm going to say that's what they intend to do tonight.
(CROSSTALK)
AXELROD: I mean, that's really the issue, isn't it?
BURNETT: OK. So, so, Mark, the question is though, they've been talking about how they have outpaced Democrats, for example, on things like voter registration as a way to point towards the potential for new voters could be coming into the Trump coalition, right, as opposed to mobilizing the base and winning over undecideds who don't like either.
Are there still potential hidden Trump voters?
MARK PRESTON, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, so I'm -- I am fascinated with this idea of hidden Trump voters and hidden Harris voters, right? And we don't have the evidence to show that there are or there aren't at this point. And we may never get the full story of whether somebody was a hidden voter or not. We'll get some kind of idea.
However, I will give you an idea of what happened in Pennsylvania within the last couple of weeks speaking to a source working the ground went up to a door knocked on the door. A woman comes to the door, says to this door knocker, who also happens to be a woman, yells, don't come back here! I told you not to come here. We're voting for Trump winks and says, don't worry, I'm voting for Harris.
Now did so because she wanted her -- no, no and believe me, I'm not -- look, there's going to be all the conspiracy theories that that this is a lie, not a lie did happen. But on the flip side, though, I wonder how often we're going to see women, suburban women who don't want to tell their friends that they're voting for Donald Trump and will prefer not to say anything at all.
BURNETT: All right. So these are two interesting groups. Okay. I was not mocking your story.
No, no, no, I'm not mocking your story. I'm saying I've heard similar stories from people. Someone I know that had that experience. And then I've seen a lot of it on social media.
So whether they're all happening or people, you know, wishfully thinking taking a few real stories and, you know, it's turning into something, morphing --
PRESTON: Yeah, exploded.
BURNETT: It's hard to tell, right social media is very unreliable, but we are hearing stories like that.
LULU GARCIA-NAVARRO, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: We are hearing stories. So I want to just go back to the Marist poll for a moment, because the thing that I found interesting in that is that this has Harris up now. It has Harris up but, you know, in the popular vote and the popular vote will win you exactly nothing in this country as we know, so I'm not even going to talk about that.
But when they were -- but what -- looking under the hood, 31 percent of people polled said preserving democracy was their top issue. And then at 25 percent was inflation. Now, if I'm the Trump campaign, I got to be worried about that because that is something that is an outlier in the sense of where people's heads are at.
[19:10:04]
BURNETT: Yes.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Thirty-one percent preserving democracy is not good for Donald Trump.
(CROSSTALK)
JENNINGS: Well, you assume -- you assume --
BURNETT: No, we haven't seen that in those polls.
AXELROD: That's complicated because you don't know which percentage of those were Democrats and which percentage were Republicans.
JENNINGS: It means different things in different people.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: It means different things for different people. But that said, we haven't really seen that issue come to the forefront. Democracy is an issue which Democrats do care deeply about and even Republicans. So I don't know. I look at that and I see -- I see numbers that move her way.
AXELROD: Can I -- can I raise a different point in that poll that Dave Wasserman over at Cook tweeted out today? And that was voter interest. There was a big gap between the interest that women expressed in the top boxes, that ten, nine and men. And that's very uncommon over the years that they've asked that question.
And it does raise the question whether women generally vote -- 52 percent of the electorate is generally female. Could that expand a little bit, even a point or two, that, you know, that would make a huge difference in this race? Because my belief is that my in my simple mind, I'm going to look at these polls and say, are -- are -- is the gap that she is enjoying among women greater than the gap or even to the gap that he is enjoying among men?
And if that is the case in these individual states, she will win those states.
JENNINGS: I got a Pennsylvania story. I went to the barber today. Three of the five people on this panel got their haircut today, by the way, and my barber --
BURNETT: It is a question -- everybody guess who it is.
PRESTON: Wait a second. I didn't get my hair cut.
JENNINGS: My barber --
BURNETT: Nobody's going to guess.
JENNINGS: You got your playoff beard on. I -- but anyway, I'm talking to my barber, young guy. Turns out he's a voter in Allentown, Pennsylvania.
PRESTON: My Lord.
JENNINGS: He's going home in the morning. Kind of seems to be like late 20s guy. He knows a lot of Puerto Ricans in Allentown. I asked him about that, by the way. He didn't seem to think it was a huge issue.
But anyway, he was told me he was driving back to Pennsylvania tomorrow to vote for Trump, for what it's worth. So --
AXELROD: So here's the weird thing. I have the same barber who told me he was voting for Harris.
JENNINGS: Well, I don't know. You don't pay as much for a haircut as I got.
(CROSSTALK)
BURNETT: How many times have you voted?
AXELROD: I wasn't -- I wasn't in the chair long enough to find out who he was voting for.
(CROSSSTALK)
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Talking about Pennsylvania. I don't know, like, are we all going to bring out our Pennsylvania stories here?
JENNINGS: You know what, here's one -- one thing is true. Everybody needs to be prepared mentally for every possible outcome, close, blowout, Trump, Harris. We got to -- as Americans, we're going to have to like hold it together this week because I don't really know what's going to happen. I don't think you do either. I don't think you do either.
And I just -- I think a lot of there's a range of outcomes here. Let's all -- let's all hold it together this week, folks. That's my advice.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: But yes, but the only thing I can say is we saw the visuals here where you have Donald Trump sitting in front of a bunch of pink signs that say women, just in case anyone was misunderstanding who he was trying to appeal to at the very last minute. And the question is, he could have had Nikki Haley going out for him, and he didn't do that.
And I'm already hearing a lot of sort of armchair, oh woulda, coulda, shoulda about what exactly could have happened here. The fact that his closing argument is a last ditch appeal to women in this in this election, I think, is a pretty troubling sign.
PRESTON: I'll say this, a million things to look at for tomorrow. Let's look at same day voter registration and voting in three specific states, right? Nevada, Wisconsin and Michigan and Tim Walz, why is he going there to be in Detroit tonight at 10:30 while Donald Trump is doing his closing remarks halfway across the state? To try to pull away any of that media attention in that Detroit market where Walz is. They are fighting.
BURNETT: Which is fascinating. And same day registration, can't do it everywhere. But where you can, it could matter.
PRESTON: It could matter.
AXELROD: Right.
BURNETT: All right. All staying with me.
Next, the Harris campaign does believe the vice president has multiple paths to 270. In the Electoral College. So exactly what are they in these final hours? John King knows, he will show them to you.
And Harris senior adviser, David Plouffe, will be OUTFRONT next.
Plus, even at this late hour, there are still voters in Pennsylvania who have not decided.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I'm going to do some more research tonight and pray on it, man.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BURNETT: And we're going to take you inside the Trump campaign in these final hours where it has been chaotic.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: She hit me the other day. I was going to say to, my people, am I allowed to hit her now?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:18:44]
BURNETT: Breaking news, Vice President Kamala Harris about to take the stage in the battleground state of Pennsylvania, making her final pitch in what they see as a must win state and you can see the crowd there on this final day of the 2024 presidential campaign. The Harris campaign tonight projecting confidence, saying that they have multiple paths to 270. And in just a moment, I'm going to speak to senior Harris campaign adviser, David Plouffe.
But, first, let's go to John King at the magic wall for -- for what we see here.
John, before the first in-person Election Day votes are cast, of course, 80 million people have already voted. So what are Harris's paths to 270 as you see them now?
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Both candidates have a lot of paths to 270. The question is, can they execute them? So let's start from a Harris perspective and then we'll walk through it.
Erin, there's a reason these three -- Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin -- are getting a lot of attention in the final days. That's the old blue wall, right? Donald Trump cracked it in 2016. It has been reliable for Democrats in most elections before and after.
These three states have voted together since 1992. That's why they get so much attention. And no path to 270 is easy for either candidate. But if you're the vice president and you can win the commonwealth of Pennsylvania, the state of Michigan, and the state of Wisconsin, that would get Harris to 270, assuming she wins Nebraska's second congressional district, where all the data shows her well ahead. That's the easy path to 270 right there.
[19:20:01]
She would not even have to win a state in the Sunbelt. And she's competitive in all those other battleground states. That would get her to 270.
But, what, hypothetical -- what if Donald Trump repeated the 2016 experience and he flipped the blue wall back to red? Can Harris still win? Yes, she does. That would be the Sunbelt strategy. She would have to win North Carolina, win Georgia, win Arizona and win Nevada.
So there's the blue wall strategy, and there's the Sunbelt strategy. And then the question is, Erin, you were talking about this in the prior panel. What if they mix and match, right. What if, for example she holds Wisconsin but Trump wins in Michigan and Trump wins in Pennsylvania? Can she get there then? Yes, there are ways to get there. You start doing that North Carolina and Georgia would become huge then because they're 16 each, right?
They're the bigger, bigger prizes. Then you move out west where there's smaller prizes in either one of those would do it if you could win Georgia and North Carolina. So we could go through this for hours if we wanted to the easiest. Not easy path for Harris is to win the blue wall, but there are other scenarios.
And again, the paths that are open to her are also open to him. It's that close of a race.
BURNETT: Right. And there's also, of course, the matter of timing and when we'll know. So when you look at the poll, we're going to get exit polls. We're going to get polls closing then fast and furiously, and some states count much more quickly than others because of the rules in each state.
So what are you looking for early tomorrow night?
KING: So early, I'm going to go back to the 2016 experience. Let me bring this up here and I want to go back. I remember early in '16, and Mr. Axelrod can testify to this. He was on set here.
Early in 2016, when these communities started to come in. Now everyone says, why are you looking at Kentucky? You know, Kentucky is going to be a red state. We fully expect it will be red again.
But in 2016, the polls closed earliest out here, and we started to see this turnout for Trump. You know, there are small rural counties. Not a lot of people live there but we started to see him running up high numbers in excess of Mitt Romney, in excess of George W. Bush. That told us early in 2016 that Donald Trump had a new Republican Party, that new people were coming out to vote.
So that's one thing I'll be looking for early on. Harris is the variable in this campaign she's never been on the ballot before. So is she going to have an Obama-like coalition or a Biden-like coalition or something in the middle? That's what we'll find out tomorrow.
Trump was on the ballot in 2016. He was on the ballot in 2020. So we can judge Donald Trump versus Donald Trump. Is he overperforming or underperforming where he was in '16 and in '20? So that's one thing you can see early.
Then let's just use Pennsylvania as an example. Number one, you look early on, the foundations of the Democratic base are Black voters and urban voters. So what's happening in Philadelphia, what's happening in Detroit, what's happening in Milwaukee.
Then you move out to the suburbs, this is the most competitive of the collar counties around Philadelphia, Bucks County, where is Harris versus Biden versus Clinton, right, or where is Trump versus Trump in the key suburbs?
And then another thing you always look at for Donald Trump is you see all this red? I just showed you the Kentucky version of that. What told me in 2016 that Trump was legit was you saw that high turnout in rural areas all going deep, deep red in Kentucky. Well, guess what? Those same people live out here in Butler County, Pennsylvania. Same kind of voters. This is a little bigger. A little more populous here.
But, so, you look for early clues and remember something that's lost sometimes on people. Donald Trump got more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. He still lost because of the massive Democratic turnout. So look, each party has a base. Does your foundation turn out first and then you look for the extras?
BURNETT: Right. All right. Well, and that's crucial. And to give people things like Kentucky, some of those early close states that you know, no one anticipates surprising could give you the first signs of what is to come.
All right. John King, thank you very much.
And let's go to David Plouffe now, as promised, senior adviser to the Harris campaign.
So, David, today, Kamala Harris spent the entire day in Pennsylvania.
And it's a place actually, where, of course, Musk -- Donald Trump has been trying that unconventional ground game led by Elon Musk. Musk has been doing those town halls and getting busses, things like that, to try to get turnout even tomorrow.
So how do you feel? Will Harris beat Trump even with that assist that he has gotten from Elon Musk in the state of Pennsylvania?
DAVID PLOUFFE, SENIOR ADVISER TO THE HARRIS CAMPAIGN: Well, Erin, we've prepared for a long time that this was going to be a super close race. That's what on the eve of the election we're prepared for. We think we have momentum we think we're closing well. We think we're winning more of the people who've decided in the last week than Donald Trump, and they're still undecided voters as you mentioned in a previous segment. And we think were positioned to win them.
But we're not going to win them 90/10. It's still going to be a close race. I will say this through experience, I think outsourcing your field effort, meaning the folks knocking on doors making calls largely to exclusively paid canvassers historically just doesn't work. You want people showing up who are committed to your candidate who are going to put in that 4 or 6 hour shift might be from that area, know the community. So we think that's a secret weapon for us.
You know, we were knocking on 2,000 doors a minute in Pennsylvania over the weekend, and all seven battlegrounds. Great weekend canvassing numbers and are prepared tomorrow to make sure were talking to everybody who we think is a Harris supporter who needs to vote on Election Day.
[19:25:04]
BURNETT: All right. So in Pennsylvania tonight, Harris is obviously there. And she's got a star studded -- star studded, I apologize set of performers. Now, of course, David, you remember eight years ago in the final days of the election, Hillary Clinton held that star studded campaign event in the same state.
I just remember Katy Perry was there. Of course, because she's also performing tonight for Harris. So you know, look, she's a great musical star. But it does bring back memories for some Democrats of celebrating too early and a sense of inevitability, which of course, turned out not to be the case.
Do you understand why Democrats are worried that this could be deja vu again? Do you sometimes have moments where you have that feeling?
PLOUFFE: I'm generally not one that cares about what might have happened in a campaign eight years ago, and how I relate to people casting vote today.
So all I care about, are you doing things that are going to increase your ability to get people to vote for you? And again, I think particularly the way the world has changed, for instance you know, vice president was on "Saturday Night Live" Saturday night, the most important thing about that to me is the TikTok that she and Maya Rudolph did afterwards, that I think was over 30 million views now.
So there will be people on Instagram, on YouTube, on TikTok seeing clips, maybe not the whole speech and that might, you know, say, you know, I'm going to vote now or remind them to vote. So we're just trying to capture energy. I'm not -- you know, I can be superstitious around things like debates and things. But in terms of something like this, no, we're closing strong in a very important state.
But as John said, its very important that we have multiple pathways to 270. And, you know just a couple hours ago, reviewing all the early vote data, what were projecting for Election Day, how we think undecideds are breaking, we have a credible pathway to all seven states tomorrow night to go into Kamala Harris's column, but we believe they're all going to be close.
BURNETT: Right. But you think you could win all seven?
PLOUFFE: Yes.
BURNETT: Can I ask you about Nevada on that? I mean, there's a path that involves that. Jon Ralston and, you know, you know him. He's actually had been very cautious, to say the least right? He had been very saying that he saw a lot of strength for Trump and Nevada up until recent days. He came out today and predicts that you will eke out a win that Kamala Harris will win the state of Nevada. Now, obviously, you're saying you think you could win all seven, but do you share that optimism about Nevada specifically
PLOUFFE: We'd like what we've seen. I mean, listen, what I think is largely been overstated in some of the analysis or coverage or cheerleading is, hey, there's a lot more Republicans voting early than there were in '20. Yeah, of course, Trump told them not to vote in '20 early in a feat of, like, epic political malpractice. So, a lot more Republicans are going to vote early. And a lot of Democrats who voted early in '20, particularly by mail, want to go back to voting on election day.
So when we look at the folks who voted so far, Democrats, Republicans, but particularly that very important group of voters that are not affiliated, we think that that adds up as long as we do our job tomorrow to a state that we can win but narrowly.
Now, history suggests that one of us, Trump or Harris, might have a hidden positive surprise that well do two points or three points better than the data suggests, and we'll see tomorrow. But we certainly are planning for a race where that doesn't happen, where its literally going to I think Jon Ralston's prediction today in Nevada was 0.3.
It's possible across all seven of these states. We could see the winner, 0.2, 0.3, 0.8, one point. And again, that's where organization comes in because if you've got the ability in the closing week and that closing day to talk to everybody, you need to talk to, it makes a big difference.
BURNETT: Can I ask you when you talk about a hidden positive surprise just Alex Castellanos, obviously, veteran Republican strategist, had raised this point. We've seen it in so many states that Republican new voter registration has outpaced Democratic voter registration, and that Republicans will point to that to say that's why Trump actually can pick up new voters can push his ceiling higher than he has before.
What do you think all those Republicans new voters are doing are they are they actually not going to vote? Are they not going to vote for him? Are you worried about that group?
PLOUFFE: Well, you've got to look at all new registrations and not just in the last few weeks. So, the entire new parts of the electorate over the last 2 to 4 years. And what we see is there's a lot of younger people now who may not register Democrat, they don't register with the party. So they're independent or nonaffiliated, but were going to win the majority of those voters.
So and I think when you look at state by state and early vote, we do not see a huge influx of new Republican voters or very sporadic voters for Trump. We both the Trump campaign and the Harris campaign have a lot riding on tomorrow, on actual Election Day, as many people as voted early, we still have to get our job done tomorrow. So the reason there could be Harris vote that we're not picking up in our data or the public polls are.
[19:30:07]
Ann Selzer's poll, of course, would pick up something that was an earthquake in terms of movement. But we do think its possible that, you know, we could do a point better, or maybe even two points with women. And as David Axelrod said in an earlier segment, if women comprise a slightly higher part of the electorate than they've previously, you put those two things together. That's how there could be a real upside surprise for Kamala Harris.
But again in our own work, we are being very conservative. We are assuming Donald Trump will do a tremendous job with turnout. We assume Donald Trump is going to do very well with Republican voters, maybe better than he will, so that we mount the kind of campaign that can win in those challenging circumstances.
But I think in my personal view, there's a better chance that were surprised tomorrow by Kamala Harris doing better, particularly with women voters, than what we saw in '16 and '20, where Trump overperformed, you know, some of the data.
BURNETT: All right. Well, David, I appreciate your time. Thank you very much. We appreciate it. And of course, we will see what happens when the voters have their final say tomorrow.
Next, we're going to speak to some of them in Pennsylvania, just hours before Election Day where predictions are all over the map.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think its going to be a landslide. I really do.
REPORTER: For?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Trump.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BURNETT: Plus, new reporting tonight from inside the final days of Trump's campaign. What did our KFILE reveal on this show that almost made Trump fire his campaign manager? Award winning reporter Tim Alberta is OUTFRONT.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:35:34]
BURNETT: All right. These are live pictures from Pittsburgh, where Vice President Harris is about to take the stage on the final night of the campaign. Former President Trump also about to address his supporters also in Pittsburgh. It's a must win state for them both. That's why they're there tonight.
And tonight in the final installment of our voters OUTFRONT series before election day, Danny Freeman talks to the voters who could tip the scale and Danny is OUTFRONT. (BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DEBBIE GABLE, PENNSYLVANIA DEMOCRAT: I'm feeling excited that it's here. I'm ready to move on.
DANNY FREEMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): While Debbie Gable is tired of the ads in the campaigning that have flooded Pennsylvania, the Democrat is hopeful for a win for Vice President Kamala Harris.
GABLE: A lot of young people that I know are kind of energized in a way that you know, seems really exciting, so that I find encouraging that people are -- I feel like people are becoming more aware that they need to engage.
FREEMAN: But Republican Kim Moyer (ph) sees it differently.
KIM MOYER, PENNSYLVANIA REPUBLICAN: I think its going to be a landslide. I really do.
FREEMAN: For?
MOYER: Trump.
FREEMAN: You think Trump's going to take Pennsylvania in a landslide?
MOYER: I do.
FREEMAN: And there was no chance the abortion rights opponent from Schuylkill County was voting for Harris.
MOYER: I can understand why people want to vote for a woman, but if she was anything that she says she is, she would have done it already. She had four years.
FREEMAN: President Joe Biden edged out former President Trump in Pennsylvania by about 80,000 votes in 2020, but the latest CNN poll of polls shows the state dead even.
DAWN QUINN, PENNSYLVANIA REPUBLICAN: We are small business owners. We've owned a restaurant in Lititz for 30 years, and obviously, the food inflation affects our business.
FREEMAN: Republicans Dawn Quinn and Tim Hepler feel Trump is the only way forward.
Does any of the former president's rhetoric give you pause?
TIM HEPLER, PENNSYLVANIA REPUBLICAN: I wish he could use some better words sometimes, but again, it's not a personality contest. It's president of the United States, and it's all about the issues.
FREEMAN: Democrat Deb Rohrer mailed in her ballot early for Harris.
DEB ROHRER, PENNSYLVANIA DEMOCRAT: The norms and the decency and just the civility is really, it's just getting out of hand. I think the rhetoric from Donald Trump is making it worse. FREEMAN: And despite former President Trump promoting unfounded
claims of fraud these past few days, she's confident in the election system here.
ROHRER: I think our elected officials have told us the truth, that it's fair and secure. Again, it's just some folks trying to, you know, sow doubt. But I have every confidence that it will be free and fair.
FREEMAN: And even at this late hour, there are still voters who are still undecided like independent Philip Whitted.
PHILIP WHITTED, PENNSYLVANIA UNDECIDED VOTER: I'm going to do some more research tonight. And, pray on it, man, and I don't want to sway anybody either way. I think both candidates are great. I think --
FREEMAN: You like both candidates?
WHITTED: I do, actually.
FREEMAN: Philip said he'll make up his mind in the ballot box.
WHITTED: I have the decision by the time I have coffee in the morning county.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
FREEMAN: Now, Erin, we're in Lancaster County. Make no mistake, this is a red county. Former President Trump won it twice, both in 2016 and 2020.
But the demographics here have been changing over the years. And while former President Trump will almost definitely win this county again, Democrats have been trying to compete here. So I'll be looking at the margins because it may give us insight into just how close this election will be in the commonwealth -- Erin.
BURNETT: All right. Danny, thank you very much. The margins in those counties could say it all early. Well see what they show us.
Next, an internal email from Trump's co campaign manager acknowledging the race may not turn out in Trump's favor. What exactly is going on there? It's very different than what were seeing inside the Harris campaign.
And we'll take you live to Arizona, where election workers have started to process ballots.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:43:38]
BURNETT: The breaking news, Donald Trump, you see there speaking now live in Pittsburgh. His advisers have been urging him to focus on the issues as he makes his closing message. He has, though, veered off in these final hours, suggesting earlier that Harris should be put in a boxing ring with Mike Tyson. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Mike's have been through a lot, but he could fight, let me tell you that guy could fight.
But, can you imagine mike oh, he says, put Mike in the ring with Kamala. That would be a tough --
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BURNETT: All right. The stop, before that -- Trump publicly questioned some of the advice he's been getting from his own campaign. The context of this was that he was saying, well, they told him to not attack Michelle Obama.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: I was going to say to my people , am I allowed to hit her now? They said, take it easy, sir. Sir, take it easy. My geniuses -- I'm telling you. They said, just take it easy.
Well, what do you mean? She said bad about me. I can't hit back? Sir, you're winning. Just relax.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BURNETT: All right. Tim Alberta is OUTFRONT. Staff writer for "The Atlantic". He spoke with nearly a dozen of Trumps aides and advisers for his latest article headlined, quote: Inside the ruthless, restless final days of Trump's final -- of Trump's campaign, final days of Trump's campaign -- sorry.
So, Tim, I guess from everyone you're speaking to, the feeling that you're getting from the inside, the campaign, do you think Trump thinks he's going to win the election?
[19:45:03]
TIM ALBERTA, STAFF WRITER, THE ATLANTIC: Yeah, Erin, I think that he does, because I think he, of course, has a pretty distorted view of political reality. I think that's been the case for quite some time. I mean, if you recall, back in 2016 when he lost the Iowa caucuses to Ted Cruz, he called the chairman of the Iowa Republican Party from his plane at the Des Moines airport and demanded that the result be thrown out because he was convinced that Ted Cruz had stolen it from him.
So this is not someone whose own assessment of wins and losses necessarily aligns with reality. But I do think in this case, he does believe that he's going to win. And I think as of a few weeks ago, people close to him were still pretty bullish on his prospects. I'm not sure that's the case anymore. I think that there is a real fear that the bottom has started to fall out here at the worst possible moment, and that they are closing -- that they are closing about -- in about as weak a fashion as you possibly could.
If sprinting through the tape is on the -- is at one extreme, I think sort of crawling or limping through the tape is at the other. And that's how a lot of the Trump folks feel right now.
BURNETT: Okay, so you write in your article that many Trump campaign staffers told you earlier this year that they were excited, they were fired up. They were excited to work in a Trump White House if he won. And now, though, you report, win or lose, they were done with the chaos of Donald Trump, even if the nation was not.
Now, I read that line to him and I wonder, I mean, do you think there are people on the Trump campaign who are not voting for Trump?
ALBERTA: I don't speculate on that, Erin. I don't, but I think -- I'll put it this way. I think that there are at least a couple of people and I can say this with certainty, because I've had these conversations with them, who work for Donald Trump who will not be upset if he loses, I'll put it that way.
I think that, I think that whatever exhaustion, whatever fatigue whatever exasperation, the median American voter feels with Donald Trump, amplify that by about 10 million. And consider those who have found themselves working for the man day in and day out for the past, you know, 18 to 20 months only to see him sort of sabotaging their efforts down the stretch of this campaign.
And, of course, Erin, when I say that anyone listening might say justifiably so well, la, di, da, these people decided to work for him in the first place. And they deserve what they get. Sure, I'm not arguing anything to the contrary.
I am saying though that, you know, through the prism of a political consultant who made a decision to go to work for this guy and try to elect him, I think for a lot of those folks, they sort of made a certain peace with, with doing this job. And now they have sort of come to find out how bad it really can be.
BURNETT: So can I ask you about something else you write about in the article then when you're talking about at least a couple who would not be upset if he lost you, write in your article about the moment Trump learned of a report that actually aired here on this show a couple of weeks ago and it was k file, he had Andrew Kaczynski had unearthed tweets from -- from Trump's co-campaign manager, Chris LaCivita, that had subsequently been deleted. But these were the original tweets that Chris LaCivita liked and shared on January 6th that blamed Trump for the violence of January 6th, including this one that called for Trump to be removed by use of the 25th Amendment.
So this report aired, and then you report that quote and I'm quoting from your article, Tim Trump told several people that LaCivita was dead to him, that he would ride out the remainder of the campaign, but would have no place in his administration or political operation going forward.
LaCivita obviously has been central to this campaign, along with Susie Wiles. I mean, what has this incident done to the campaign? How disruptive has this conflict been?
ALBERTA: I think you have to consider this incident in the sweep of the relationship between some of these people. So the relationship between Trump and LaCivita, the relationship between LaCivita and Susie Wiles and then Corey Lewandowski, who parachuted into the campaign this summer and basically started, as I wrote in the piece, rolling grenades into every department at campaign headquarters this has been an extraordinarily volatile past three months, Erin.
And I would just underscore that for whatever I reported in this piece I'm expecting that in the months to come and the years to come, there will be so much more that comes out. There will be memoirs written by the staffers. There will be great books that are written by other reporters. This has been a total train wreck of a fall campaign for the Trump folks.
And I think that yes, LaCivita was already regarded internally -- specifically regarded by Trump and the Trump family as someone who was kind of a hired gun. They recognized, I think, pretty early on that he had some real misgivings about working for Donald Trump.
[19:50:01]
He talked to me about this on the record over the summer, and then Andrew unearthing what he unearthed. I think only kind of put an exclamation point on it. But I think LaCivita is certainly one of these guys who knows what he was getting into, but maybe didn't fully understand just how ugly it could be and now, of course, he's sort of wrestling with that.
BURNETT: All right. Well, the words you use, their train wreck in these final weeks and well see whether that train can emerge victorious or not in light of all this.
ALBERTA: And he can still win despite -- despite all of it, Erin, he could still win.
BURNETT: Absolutely.
ALBERTA: Very easily.
BURNETT: Well, Tim, it's great to see you and thanks so much.
ALBERTA: Thank you.
BURNETT: All right. And next, they just started processing early ballots in Arizona so it has begun. Crucial battleground state of Arizona, they have to count beginning on those earlies. We'll take you there live.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:55:00]
BURNETT: All right, breaking news. This is live video. This is election workers processing ballots in Maricopa County, Arizona, the state's largest county, fiercely contested swing county that could play the crucial role in deciding who wins Arizona, and maybe the presidency. Election workers also now are processing ballots in Washoe County, Nevada, the most closely divided area of that state.
I'm sitting here talking, and I'm having deja vu.
Everyone is back.
Like, wait a minute, all. Here we go again.
PRESTON: But I got another story.
BURNETT: This is -- this is, this is how it goes, right? I mean, they're already counting.
PRESTON: They are already counting. But, you know --
BURNETT: It's good because if that means we get a yes.
AXELROD: No, no, no. That's why they're going to get theirs done in a timely way.
PRESTON: Well, we would hope so. But traditionally, we're looking at Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania as traditionally being very slow in counting. So thank God they're starting tonight because these are probably the three states I'm guessing that we're going to really be hanging on to see who wins the presidency.
BURNETT: Kate Bolduan, you know, our anchor.
AXELROD: Yeah.
BURNETT: Amazing reporter in Pennsylvania. She has been talking to sources there. She said they feel like they're doing a lot better. You know they've got new technology in place.
She says that they think they're going to know a lot at 8:01, and they're going to know a lot more right before midnight. They're going to know a lot.
AXELROD: Yeah.
BURNETT: So is it possible --
PRESTON: Under-promise, over-deliver, just saying.
AXELROD: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Good advice there. You know, I live by that.
BURNETT: Not going so far as to say it could be they would know everything, but that's a very different posture, even from Pennsylvania.
AXELROD: So, let me say something about this. You know, two states that we're going to know a lot about relatively early are Georgia and North Carolina, and that will define how the rest of the thing rolls, because if those races are close, you'd expect Trump to win them. Trump won North Carolina last time. He went back there four times over the weekend for a reason. If she were to win one of those states and certainly both, and if that one were North Carolina, but even if she were to win Georgia, it changes the nature of the race. But if she doesn't, then the blue wall becomes everything, and we're going to be very focused on the state of Pennsylvania.
BURNETT: Now, Georgia, Brad Raffensperger, secretary of state there, he laid it out, forget two drops. I mean, it was like by the minute. They've got a TikTok going of getting everything out on that. They want it out fast.
JENNINGS: Two things. A, they know what they're doing down there in terms of running the election. B, look at the massive turnout. I'm very proud of Georgia given all the dirt that's been heaped upon Georgia for the last several years.
AXELROD: Who heaped dirt upon them?
JENNINGS: Your political party has been heaping dirt upon the Georgia election laws.
AXELROD: I thought Donald Trump.
JENNINGS: I don't know what version of Jim Crow we're on now, but whatever it is, everyone's voting. So whatever we got to.
AXELROD: I don't think Trump has done much for that.
JENNINGS: Georgia deserves a lot of credit, A, for having big turnout and having a good system, and B, having a fundamentally good way to do the election. So I'm proud of --
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Are we agreeing that this election might turn out to be a well run election?
AXELROD: I think the last election was a well-run election to be honest with you. It was tainted by the allegations of Trump, but it was the most scrutinized election in history. And it turns out it went pretty well. So I don't think -- I think people should have confidence in -- in what happens in these elections.
The only thing I would say about Georgia is unfortunately, they allowed candidates who weren't on the -- shouldn't have been on the ballot to be on the ballot, and it was too late to get them off. And that may affect things a little bit down there.
JENNINGS: One other quick thing I'm watching for tomorrow night. A couple of early things are going to happen.
BURNETT: Yes.
JENNINGS: U.S. Senate, obviously, West Virginia is going to go Republican, but Ohio has an important U.S. Senate race. If the Republicans beat Sherrod Brown with Moreno in Ohio and you got West Virginia, that's 50 and 51 right there.
Obviously, the other one the party's watching is Montana. It'll come in later. But in the Eastern Time zone, we may know a little something about the U.S. Senate, which whoever wins the presidency is probably going to if it holds up, going to have to tangle with a Republican U.S. Senate.
BURNETT: Well, we'll see. And of course, if it doesn't go that way, then, you know, you may be saying -- all right, so you said you're looking a few early counties, as John King was saying, Kentucky.
JENNINGS: Absolutely. Kentucky, Eastern Time Zone, polls close at six, and we and it split east and west into the central. But there's some collar counties around greater Cincinnati, Boone, Kenton and Campbell. A lot of white collar suburban Republicans, college educated Republicans. I'll be looking at the Trump margins there, because if Harris has broken through to some of these, you know, more moderate, college educated Republicans, you might know something in a few of those.
AXELROD: Republican women.
BURNETT: All right. So lets do a quick what are you looking for first thing tomorrow night?
AXELROD: Well, I think those two states, as I mentioned, and counties within those states, I'm going to be looking at the suburbs around Atlanta, for example, as one issue. And then some of the counties that that John King mentioned in Pennsylvania.
GARCIA-NAVARRO: Yeah, I mean, the suburbs are exactly where you have to look at. But I'm looking at the Latino vote I'm very interested in what's happening in Allentown. I'm very interested in what's happening in Osceola County in Florida. There's a lot of Puerto Ricans, what's the turnout going to be? And that might tell you something about where the Latino vote is moving.
PRESTON: I'm going to -- I'm going to steal something from David Axelrod that he has said in a previous conversation. Forget about when the polls close. Let's look at what happens in the 4 or 5 hours beforehand and what actions are being taken by the campaigns to try to turn out those last votes, to hopefully win the election.
BURNETT: Right, because they are seeing real time data. So where are they moving in those final moments for turnout?
All right. Well, thanks. It's going to be great to be with you guys over these next days.
AXELROD: It'll be fun. Bring your sleeping --
BURNETT: History making for the country. We're all -- we're all thrilled to be a part of it.
All right. Join us tomorrow for a special election coverage. I'll be here starting at noon and throughout the night as we bring you the latest results as polls close across the country. It's time for Anderson
