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Erin Burnett Outfront

Sources: Trump Considering U.S. Military Strikes On Iran; 30,000-Pound "Bunker Buster" Could Be Used To Hit Nuclear Site; NYT: Iran Preparing Possible Retaliatory Strikes On U.S. Bases. Aired 7-8p ET

Aired June 17, 2025 - 19:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[19:00:24]

JOHN BERMAN, CNN HOST: OUTFRONT next:

Breaking news, all eyes on the White House as sources say, President Trump is increasingly considering a strike inside Iran. Is the U.S. about to go to war?

Plus, the bunker busters. See why Israel needs one of America's most powerful bombs, a 30,000-pound explosive, to attack Iran's key nuclear site built inside a mountain.

And Iran's firepower. We're learning new details tonight about Iran's deadly arsenal. How long can that country keep up the fight?

Let's go OUTFRONT.

Good evening. I'm John Berman, in for Erin Burnett.

OUTFRONT tonight, breaking news, President Trump increasingly considering air strikes against Iran. That is, according to officials, just a short time ago, he met with his top advisers in the Situation Room, a meeting that lasted more than an hour. That meeting took place after the president called for Iran's unconditional surrender and threatened to kill Iran's supreme leader. This, as "The New York Times" reports tonight, that Iran is preparing for possible retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases.

And it comes after Vice President J.D. Vance tweeted, notable, because he is seen as more isolationist. He wrote, the president may decide he needs to take further action to end Iranian enrichment.

A senior Israeli official tells CNN the Israelis are now waiting to see if the president will help them finish the job and take out Iran's nuclear facilities.

Now, should the U.S. strike Iran, one potential target, the mysterious Fordow fuel enrichment plant. It's built inside a mountain, and it's where some of Iran's most important nuclear work is now taking place. It's buried more than 295 feet underground.

So far, that plan has not sustained major damage from Israel's strikes, which is why Israel needs this. America's so-called bunker buster. The U.S. is the only country that possesses this bomb. It weighs about 30,000 pounds and is able to penetrate deep into the earth.

At this moment, the president is already taking some action. 30 U.S. aerial refueling tankers are now in the region. These would allow the U.S. Air Force to refuel Israeli fighter jets carrying out strikes over Iran.

And those strikes have not let up. We've got new video of strikes over Tel Aviv from just moments ago.

Oren Liebermann is OUTFRONT live in Tel Aviv.

Oren, what's the latest you're learning from there?

OREN LIEBERMANN, CNN JERUSALEM BUREAU CHIEF AND CORRESPONDENT: John, we have seen two rounds of incoming ballistic missiles over the course of the last hour. These two rounds spaced pretty much just minutes apart. The Israeli military says the first round included ten ballistic missiles. Most of those intercepted, but not all of them. We have seen some images circulating of, frankly, some fire starting and some damage on the ground here.

We are waiting to learn more. But crucially, at this point, Magen David Adom, that is Israel's emergency response service says there have been no injuries. That being said, there is the expectation that this could be a long night with more rounds and more volleys ahead. Certainly, if the rounds of ballistic missiles, the volleys of ballistic missiles coming from Iran are smaller than they have been over the course of the past 48 hours, it could be a very long night ahead here in central Tel Aviv, and there has been incoming throughout the course of the last 24 hours to northern Israel, in the largest city there, the city of Haifa.

Meanwhile, Israel waits for a final decision from the U.S. has President Donald Trump made a decision to get the U.S. involved here? Crucially, the U.S. has struck the Natanz nuclear facility over the course of the past several days and the nuclear facility in Isfahan.

But when it comes to Fordow, one of the major un -- seriously undamaged facilities that will require the U.S. and the bunker buster bomb you mentioned, its designed to be launched from B-2 stealth bomber, although it was tested from a B-52, so there are options. Israel urging the U.S. frankly and hoping that the U.S. gets involved to finish essentially the job that the U.S. has started and try to destroy as much as possible of Iran's nuclear facilities.

Meanwhile, Iran has warned that it could be a long night in preparing for the potential to strike U.S. facilities in the region of which there are many -- John.

BERMAN: All right. Oren Liebermann in central Tel Aviv. Oren, stay safe. A lot going on there.

Kristen Holmes is OUTFRONT at the White House.

Kristen, I know President Trump spoke with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu tonight. What have you learned about that call?

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESEPONDENT: Yeah, John, the White House is being incredibly tight lipped about this. They wouldn't even tell us if he spoke before or after the meeting in the Situation Room. I was actually told by one source it was before another, it was after.

And I'm told this is intentional. They do not want to tip their hand at all. Of course, as we know, Donald Trump's team in the past has often gone to the public, gone to journalists and given out information.

That is not what's happening right now. Everything is completely under lock and key. And I do just want to note, because this just came out from the State Department, it gives you any indication at least of where the administrations head is at.

It says, "Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, given the security situation and in compliance with Israeli home front command guidance, the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem will be closed tomorrow through Friday."

So, now, we're seeing this, that the Jerusalem embassy is going to be closed Wednesday through Friday. Clearly there, as Oren is talking about, Iran striking potential or potentially striking those U.S. military assets.

The one thing I have been told about where Donald Trump's head is, where the administrations head is at, is that if there is any harm done to American citizens or to U.S. assets, military assets as well, that that will lead to an immediate retaliation.

Now, where Donald Trump's head is right now, that is unclear. We know that he has been leaning towards operating or putting out some kind of U.S. strikes. We know that he has been going further away from this kind of diplomatic route that he had been hoping to take and remember for days. He was wary of U.S. involvement in any of this.

That seems to have gone away. It seems as though he is leaning towards, or at least deeply considering, getting the U.S. more involved, and this is definitely an indication of that. This tweet from the state department saying that the embassy will be closed because we know that they are concerned about U.S. citizens, U.S. property in the region.

BERMAN: Yeah. Two notable things there. One, the statement from the state department and two, the silence from the White House, not known in many cases for its silence on issues like this.

Kristen Holmes at the White House, thank you very much.

OUTFRONT now, Israel's ambassador to the United States, Yechiel Leiter.

Ambassador, thank you so much for being with us.

Let me just ask you flat out, what do you currently know of the U.S. plans?

YECHIEL LEITER, ISRAEL'S AMBASSADOR TO THE UNITED STATES: Well, good evening, John. It's good to be with you.

Prime Minister Netanyahu and President Trump have had a conversation now for five months, ever since President Trump entered the White House. And the prime minister was the first foreign dignitary to visit Washington. Conversation is ongoing.

Right now, the operation in Iran is a blue and white operation. And should the president of the United States choose to turn it into a red, white and blue operation? That remains to be seen.

But Israel is committed to removing this existential threat to the state of Israel. These are people who are intent on developing nuclear weapons to destroy our country, and we're not going to have any part of it.

BERMAN: The prime minister spoke by phone with the president today. What can you tell us about that call? Was it after the meeting in the Situation Room?

LEITER: As I said, the prime minister and the president have an ongoing conversation. Particular phone calls are certainly not at liberty to be discussed on the airwaves.

BERMAN: President Trump wrote on social media today, quote, "We now have complete and total control of the skies over Iran." The interesting word there is "we".

So how closely is the U.S. currently aiding Israel?

LEITER: Well, again, I can't speak on behalf of the president, but we are flying Lockheed Martin F-35s. We have a great relationship. Our pilots and the F-35s seem to get along very, very well. And they're doing an incredible job.

We've peeled back the air defense systems. We have total domination over the Iranian skies, something we anticipated would take a longer period of time. But we've done it very quickly.

And we're taking out the missile -- ground to ground missile systems that they're shooting into our civilian population centers, stage after stage. We're up to about 50 percent. We have more to go. Our pilots are working very hard around the clock to see to it that these ballistic missiles, which are like busses filled with TNT flying through the air, are stopped.

BERMAN: What would you need U.S. help for?

LEITER: You know, the Iranian regime under the mullahs is a malevolent cult that has chanted "death to America" now for many years. This isn't just an Israeli issue. It's -- as far as -- we're concerned, it's to be or not to be, and we've chosen to be.

But the malevolence of the mullahs of Tehran is directed against the West in total. They've chanted "death to America". They sent two assassination teams to take out the president of the United States. They sent an assassination team to try to kill former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

They are malevolent actors working around the world promoting terrorism. Look, the truth is, John, that this war didn't begin Thursday night. It began on October 7th when an Iranian proxy, Hamas, stormed across our southern border and slaughtered 1,200 of our civilians.

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That was at the funding and training of the Iranian regime. And then it was followed by Hezbollah in the north, raining missiles onto our civilian population centers.

So, we've been contending with Iranian proxies until now for a year and a half fighting this war. And now, we are at the head of the snake. Once we take out this race by the Iranian regime to achieve a nuclear bomb, the entire region will change. This is a war to end wars, not to enter into endless wars.

This has the potential of changing the region and indeed changing the world. Countries will line up to expand the Abraham accords that President Trump began in his first term. This is going to be Abraham Accords 2.0 as soon as the Iranian mullahs, with their intention of eliminating Israel are neutralized.

BERMAN: You say the Iranian mullahs, when they're neutralized. Let me ask you about that. President Trump posted today on social media, "We know exactly where the so-called supreme leader is hiding. He's an easy target, but he's safe there. We're not going to take him out."

Do you know exactly where the ayatollah is? Is he safe right now in your eyes?

LEITER: John, I'll tell you what I do know. I know that, you know, Friday morning, the ayatollah woke up. He looked over his left shoulder for his nuclear scientists and found none. Then he looked over his right shoulder for his generals of the IRGC. Those guys who were spreading the terrorism around the world, he didn't see any of them either.

So, he's kind of alone right now. He appointed a new chief of staff. He lasted about four days.

So, the ayatollah may be many stories underground right now and hiding. That's where he belongs. And we're going to prosecute this war, whether the ayatollah survives or not.

We are not going to allow the Iranian regime under his control to have a nuclear bomb. Whether he's alive or not is irrelevant.

BERMAN: All right. Ambassador, thank you very much for your time.

OUTFRONT now, former -- LEITER: Good evening. Thank you.

BERMAN: OUTFRONT now, former NATO Supreme allied commander, retired General Wesley Clark, and Barak Ravid, global affairs correspondent for "Axios".

Barak, I just want to lean into you. What's your current reporting at 7:11 p.m. on the East Coast, how likely is it that the United States will strike Iran?

BARAK RAVID, CNN POLITICAL & GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: Hi, John.

I think it's very likely. I think there's a high chance we will see that in the next, I don't know, 24, 48 hours. It wouldn't shock me. I think the, you know, the preparations are more or less done. We saw those 28 strategic refueling planes that were made their way since Sunday to the Middle East, 28 refueling planes are -- means something like, I don't know, 100 jets, fighter jets that they can they can work with.

So, I think this is a major mobilization by the U.S. military to the region in addition to anything else, everything else that they have there. And you don't bring to the region so many hardware if you're not planning to use it.

BERMAN: Yeah. What about that, General Clark? Specifically those refueling jets, what are they there for and what is their presence tell you?

GEN. WESLEY CLARK (RET.), FORMER NATO SUPREME ALLIED COMMANDER: Well, first of all, they're a great piece of diplomatic leverage. So, I hope that the ayatollah underground is thinking about this, because they're going to greatly magnify the impact of Israeli air power. And obviously, if the U.S. comes in, U.S. air power.

With those refueling assets, you can loiter over Iran for hours with your aircraft. And right now, the Israeli strikes have only gone into western Iran. So, we shouldn't be so naive as to believe that the Iranians wouldn't put their most valuable assets further in the east and southeast. That would be further from Israel. Of course, they would do this.

So, these assets, these air refueling assets are very important for that.

BERMAN: Barak, you heard me speaking to the Israeli ambassador to the U.S., and I was sort of pressing him in a bunch of different ways to try to get him to say whether or not Israel needs the United States to destroy Fordow, this nuclear enrichment, you know, deep underground in the mountains there.

Do you think Israel would ever stop doing what they're doing if Fordow is still operational?

RAVID: Well, you cannot destroy the Iranian nuclear program without destroying Fordow. That's -- it's plain and simple. So, I think what the Israelis are planning to do is to go ahead and destroy as many parts of the Iranian nuclear program as they -- as they can, hoping that if things go as planned, President Trump will order the U.S. military to join in and take it out.

[19:15:00]

And if not, I think the Israelis had several other contingencies for how to do it without having the B-2 bombers and 30,000-pound bombs that the B-2 bombers can carry.

But at the moment, it seems that they're not going to have to use those contingency plans.

BERMAN: You heard me also ask the ambassador basically about the idea of regime change. And he claimed that Israel will follow through with this, whether or not Ayatollah Khamenei survives or not. Do you believe that? Do you think regime change is a goal here?

RAVID: I think that it's definitely something Prime Minister Netanyahu is flirting with it. Theres no doubt he's been talking about this for days now, saying that, you know, even though it's not the goal, it could be the result of the war.

From my -- you know, for almost 20 years of covering Netanyahu, he doesn't say anything by, you know, by accident. So, everything is, I think, calculated here. And I think that although the Israeli security cabinet never approved such a goal, such an objective for this war, regime change is definitely an unstated and unofficial goal of this war for Netanyahu.

BERMAN: General Clark, I want to go back to Fordow, this nuclear enrichment facility for one moment that that seems to be essential to the Israeli plans. It can only be destroyed in theory, with this U.S. bomb, the so-called bunker buster, as the U.S. is the only country in the world that has this.

What is the risk in your eyes of using it? What are the upsides? What are the downsides?

CLARK: Well, first of all, as President Trump I think said, there's no guarantee if you use one of these bombs, it's going to actually destroy it. So, you may need several bombs.

You're going to ultimately have to go in to the on the ground in all of these sites to exploit the sites. There's radiation, radioactive material there, there's paperwork, there's machines that have to be destroyed. Theres lists of people and suppliers, and there's a lot of intelligence.

If you really want to root this out and have something other than a sort of vengeful, angry regime that tries to reconstitute this with some success, in a year or two, you got to go in there on the ground with special forces. You don't have to occupy the country, but you do have to go in.

And I'm sure Israel has the capacity to do that. Their tunnel entrances, there's ventilation, there's ways to get in there. You'll get the plans. You'll figure out how to destroy it.

BERMAN: General Wesley Clark, Barak Ravid, thank you so much for your time tonight.

OUTFRONT next, breaking news, the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem we just learned closing as the world waits for the U.S. next move. President Trump rapidly building up U.S. military presence in the Middle East. We're going to have the very latest from the Pentagon next.

Also breaking, new video of explosions over Tehran tonight. And we have a special report on Iran's weapons. How much firepower does Tehran have left?

And the president calls the ayatollah an easy target. But is the supreme leader losing his grip on power after 35 years?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[19:22:41]

BERMAN: All right, breaking news. Israel's military just issued an evacuation warning for parts of Tehran, warning that they would soon carry out strikes against military infrastructure there. It comes as one of the president's top political allies, Senator Lindsey Graham, who was pushing for strong action against Iran, says the president is about to act.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. LINDSEY GRAHAM (R-SC): Iran with a nuclear weapon is a threat not only to Israel but to us. And four presidents have promised to make sure that Iran never had a nuclear weapon. I think it will be Donald Trump who delivers on that promise.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: The U.S. is already building up its military presence in the region. Dozens of aerial refueling tankers have moved into the region to assist Israeli fighter jets.

Natasha Bertrand, OUTFRONT at the Pentagon.

Natasha, what more are you learning about these U.S. assets being moved into place?

NATASHA BERTRAND, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY REPORTER: Yeah, John, what we're told from our sources is that these U.S. Air Force tankers, they have been moved into the region in recent days in order to essentially give President Donald Trump options, should he want them. And one of those options, of course, is to help refuel Israeli jets as they carry out strikes over Iran.

But that would be on the lesser end of potential U.S. military involvement. And these tankers are really designed to give President Trump a lot of options. And that, of course, includes one that was presented by U.S. central command as a possible option to Trump of actually engaging in joint strikes with the Israelis on Iranian nuclear facilities. So, if you have those tankers in the area ready to go, then you can, of course, refuel jets, you can refuel B-2 bombers, which, of course, are the bombers that would be capable of dropping those very, very heavy munitions on these underground nuclear facilities.

And so that is one part of the kind of restructuring that's going on when it comes to the U.S. force posture in the Middle East. But we have also seen, of course, the deployment of another aircraft carrier to the region, the USS Nimitz, which is -- which is joining the USS Carl Vinson, which is still in the Middle East.

And it remains to be seen whether both are going to be there at the same time. But they will overlap for at least a little while. And of course, they have a tremendous amount of firepower and hardware on them that can be used both to conduct offensive operations as well as to help the Israelis defend themselves against incoming Iranian missiles.

So, all of this is part of Central Command trying to essentially position the U.S. military in the region in a way that allows President Trump the flexibility to essentially carry out whatever kind of military operation that he wants, John.

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BERMAN: Natasha Bertrand at the Pentagon, thank you, Natasha.

OUTFRONT now, Congressman Seth Moulton, a Democrat from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. He's on the Armed Services Committee and served four tours of duty in Iraq.

Congressman Moulton, thanks for being with us.

As we await word from the president, sources do tell CNN he's increasingly warming to the idea of using the military to strike Iranian nuclear facilities. What do you think it would mean for the U.S. to get involved in this way?

REP. SETH MOULTON (D-MA): Well, look, first of all, we all want to ensure that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon. We're all on the same page across the world about that. The question is just simply, how best do we get there? And how do we ensure that once were there, that Iran doesn't get one in the future?

And so, military action may be part of that solution. And we've already seen Israel successfully take out many components of Iran's nuclear program. But I think at the end of the day, the only way to ensure that Iran never gets a nuclear weapon down the road, whether it be two years, five years, ten years from now, is to have an inspection regime in place.

That means there's got to be some deal at the end of all of this. So military action are not from the U.S. We've got to be in a position to impose a strict inspection regime on Iran going forward, so that if they ever try to develop a nuclear weapon in the future, regardless of how much of their program is destroyed today, we can ensure that that doesn't happen.

BERMAN: We just got word, Congressman, that that Israel is striking parts of Tehran right now as we speak. So, the strikes very much continue. Do you support the U.S. getting involved directly with this?

MOULTON: I'm very reticent to have the U.S. get involved directly for two primary reasons, John. First is that we cannot afford to get bogged down in another war in the Middle East.

We can't use all our munitions in the Middle East when we need them to deter a war against China. That's our primary national security threat. Again, something that everyone in Congress agrees with. Everyone in the administration agrees with. China is the main threat, so we can't take our eye off that ball.

And the second question again comes back to this, this point about what is the best way to ensure long term that Iran does not have a nuclear weapon?

Iran is clearly not going to negotiate with Israel. That means there's got to be someone else that's willing to negotiate, to get an inspection regime in place so that Iran can never reconstitute its program. There are a lot of analysts who think that that's exactly what Iran is going to try to do, that the lesson they will take from these strikes is that they have got to sprint to a bomb.

So, the way we ensure that that doesn't happen is we have an inspection regime in place that only comes through a deal. I'm not sure America puts itself in the best position to actually negotiate that deal. If it's involved with military strikes, but that's an open question and that's something that's I'm sure being debated in the administration right now.

BERMAN: Probably being debated in the Situation Room this afternoon.

What about this, this so-called bunker busting bomb, 30,000 pounds, usually dropped from a B-2? How far would that go, do you think, if it was used in Fordow to destroy Fordow completely and perhaps ending Iran's nuclear program?

MOULTON: Well, I mean, candidly, the answer to that is classified. But there is a question that has to be answered here about just exactly what kind of military operation, you know, the U.S. wants to get involved? And you laid out some of the options. You know, do we take part in offensive strikes? Do we simply support what the Israelis do, are doing, you know, what kind of munitions do we use?

These are also questions that are being discussed and debated in the -- in the Situation Room. I asked our CENTCOM commander some of these questions last week before the strikes, just to understand what the realm of options is. And, you know, look, there's sensitive intelligence involved here about exactly what the U.S. can and should do to potentially support this operation.

BERMAN: You asked the questions to intelligence.

Congressman Seth Moulton from the Commonwealth of Massachusetts, great to see you tonight. Thank you very much.

OUTFRONT next, breaking news. Israel says it is now carrying out a series of new strikes over Tehran. New video of explosions over that nation's capital. And tonight, we're learning new details about Iran's arsenal. How long can they keep up the fight?

Plus, new reporting that Iran is preparing for possible retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[19:33:58]

BERMAN: All right. Breaking news, the Israeli air force confirming just moments ago it is carrying out strikes right now in the Iranian capital of Tehran. President Trump is said to be increasingly weighing military action against Iran tonight.

The State Department, as we were starting this show, announced it is closing the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem. And it comes as were learning more about Iran's capabilities at this hour and what remains of its weapons arsenal.

Nick Paton Walsh is OUTFRONT.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The loudest clock ticking is how long this intensity of conflict can go on. Iran, under greatest pressure, may reach a breaking point first, they're estimated to have had a stockpile of up to 3,000 missiles. Between 2,000 and 1,000 of them able to reach Israel.

BEHNAM BEN TALEBLU, SENIOR FELLOW, FOUNDATION FOR DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES: The best estimate we have is, at best, a back of the envelope calculation of anywhere between 1,000 to 2,000 medium range ballistic missiles.

WALSH: But those stockpiles were challenged before this phase of the conflict.

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Iran fired about 120 at Israel on the 13th of April, 2024, and then another 200 on the 1st of October that year, and in the last five days have fired an estimated 380. Seven hundred used in a year and at very best, 1,300 left.

Others less optimistic.

EYAL PINKO, PRESIDENT, INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR MIGRATION AND SECURITY RESEARCH: Take into consideration that they fired around 400 -- 400, 500 in the last four days, and Israel destroyed some of the arsenal of what they had. I believe they stayed now with 800, 700 more. WALSH: But Israel has claimed success in hitting the missiles

launchers, releasing this graphic of targets including at least a third, they say, of Iran's surface to surface launchers.

PINKO: Israel is trying now not only to hit or to defend the missiles in the air to intercept them, but also to destroy the vehicles before launching because this is the -- this is the weakest part of the chain.

WALSH: Israel has claimed Iran could make 300 ballistic missiles a month like this Fattah-1 apparently used in the recent attacks. But on October the 26th, three waves of retaliatory strikes by Israel hit Iran's air defense and missile production, in which the U.K. defense chief said only 100 bombs took down nearly the entirety of Iran's air defense system.

"It has destroyed Iran's ability to produce ballistic missiles for a year," he said.

TALEBLU: I don't even think they want to go below four digits, but it's certainly a bind that the regime finds themselves in. You know, for the Islamic Republic, quantity has a quality of its own and having to expend these ballistic missiles during a time of war rather than a time of crisis, precisely puts it in this bind.

WALSH: The mystery number of how many missiles Iran has left dictating its actions, and the outcome of this defining conflict.

Nick Paton Walsh, CNN, London.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BERMAN: And with us now, Ian Bremmer, the president of the Eurasia Group.

Ian, great to see you.

You just heard Nick Paton Walsh is reporting there. How close do you believe Iran is to the breaking point?

IAN BREMMER, PRESIDENT, EURASIA GROUP: Well, not as close now, given the strikes that have just occurred. I mean, you know, before we were thinking maybe a month or two before they'd be able to break out and build a nuclear weapon, but certainly now it would be more challenging.

And of course, the big question is, is really about what happens with Fordow. The critical component of their program, that the United States is increasingly, apparently heading towards making a decision to strike.

BERMAN: The president today demanded unconditional surrender from Iran and said that the U.S. knows where the supreme leader is, but won't kill him, at least for now. You say it's hard to pull back from this, from these types of statements. How much time do you think the president has here to make up his mind? BREMMER: You know, when you're sending all of this military equipment

into the region, you're shutting down the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem for two days. That's the announcement. This is not a matter of weeks of being on tenterhooks.

I think this decision is going to be coming within a matter of a day or two, unless the Iranian government is prepared to accept complete capitulation, which means no enrichment, and that they would have inspectors come in and actually, you know, unwind this program, that otherwise the Americans would be prepared to blow up.

I mean, this is the "or else" moment. It's kind of like when you told the Taliban, you know, you give up bin laden after 9/11, or else were going to blow you up. That's basically the -- this is the Trump version of that.

BERMAN: You know, you said you believe that that President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu can win if they do join forces. Is there a version of winning that you just laid out without regime change?

BREMMER: Sure. But, you know, let's keep in mind that winning, because the Iranians have nothing that they can do effectively other that isn't suicidal. I mean, the only things that Iran can really pull off are attacking American troops with missiles in bases in Iraq, you know, blowing up the Straits of Hormuz that, you know, for a few weeks, you know, maybe hitting the massive Saudi refinery at Abqaiq and blowing it up.

And, you know, they can do things that can have an impact. But these things are suicidal for the regime. And so, it's the lack of options that the Iranians don't have, right. That's making it -- you know, the United States, the Israelis so far, and then the United States would be able to hit them with impunity.

But that doesn't mean regime change.

[19:40:00]

I mean, you could easily have a situation where a defanged, non- nuclear, capable Iran run by their military, incredibly brutal and oppressive, could hang on for a very long time. I mean, it's not as if there's a ground war option here. The Israelis don't neighbor them. The Americans aren't going to do that. So we're not going to do Iraq redux.

And absent that, this is a country that has a lot of people. It has a fair amount of money. It has a lot of military capacity. And, you know, if they don't have any deterrent capacity, that means that they're going to be essentially a Hamas type threat, but much, much bigger.

And so, the long-term implications of that, I think, are much greater than the fact that the Americans and the Israelis can notch a pretty staggering win against a major adversary in the near term.

BERMAN: Ian Bremmer, great to see you tonight. Thank you so much for putting this all in perspective.

OUTFRONT next, breaking news. Air raid sirens going off in Tel Aviv as Iran fires a new round of missiles. We're going to take you to the ground next.

Plus, President Trump claims he has helped spare the life of Iran's supreme leader, someone who has remained in power for decades but is now facing the ultimate test.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[19:45:56]

BERMAN: Breaking news, senior Israeli officials waiting for any sign from Washington that President Trump is ready to help them bomb Iran's nuclear program. But two sources tell CNN that the prime minister isn't urging Trump to help, hoping the president reaches that conclusion on his own. It comes as Iran just launched a new wave of attacks on Israel, including targeting the air bases where Israel's attacks on Iran were launched.

Jeremy Diamond is OUTFRONT in Tel Aviv.

Jeremy, what are you hearing tonight about a possible or about the possibility of a U.S. strike on Iran?

JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN JERUSALEM CORRESPONDENT: Well, we know that President Trump and Prime Minister Netanyahu did indeed speak earlier this evening. Presumably that would have been the topic of conversation, but we haven't yet gotten a full readout of that conversation.

What I can tell you is that senior Israeli officials who I've been speaking with have been telling me that they are hoping that President Trump makes the decision to go after that Fordow facility that is lodged deep beneath the mountain in Iran. But they are ultimately just waiting to see whether or not President Trump will actually decide to do that.

And they've also told me that the Israeli prime minister has taken an interesting approach here, not advocating directly to President Trump to make this strike, not trying to push him into a corner on it, but rather just presenting this option here and hoping that President Trump ultimately chooses to make that decision of his own volition and out of a belief that it is also in the U.S.'s strategic interest.

Now, we have gotten several barrages of ballistic missiles here in the last couple of hours. There were some hits to open areas as well as a car parking lot in the Tel Aviv area, but so far, no fatalities as we are seeing those Iranian ballistic missile barrages, they have diminished in terms of the number of missiles being fired. That also diminishes the number of missiles making it through Israeli air defenses.

BERMAN: Jeremy, we learned tonight the State Department put out a statement shutting down the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem for a few days. What's the feeling about that on the ground?

DIAMOND: Well, it is certainly a notable move. Anytime you see the United States changing its security posture around its embassies in the region, you'll recall that last week, just a couple of days before Israel carried out that strike on Iran, the United States started moving out some personnel from its facilities in Iraq, for example. And ultimately, we saw a couple days later, Israel carry out that action.

And so, when you see these kinds of posture moves, you have to wonder what is happening behind the scenes that we don't know about at this moment. Could it be because the United States is preparing to carry out a strike itself on Iran, concerned about retaliation at the U.S. embassy in Jerusalem, for example? Again, we simply do not know at this hour, but that is certainly a possibility. And perhaps in hindsight, it will all become a lot clearer -- John.

BERMAN: Right. We just can't know for sure right now, but it certainly does beg the question.

Jeremy Diamond in Tel Aviv -- Jeremy, stay safe.

Back with us, former NATO supreme allied commander, retired General Wesley Clark.

General Clark, it is notable because we've been seeing video of the sky lit up again over Israel. The strikes very much still on at this hour. And it's happening as "The New York Times" reports, that U.S. intelligence shows, Iran has prepared missiles and other military equipment to hit U.S. bases in the region if the U.S. joins in the Israeli strikes.

How real of a threat do you think that is?

CLARK: I think it's a significant threat because the missiles that they would use against U.S. bases are not the same missiles that would be coming against Israel. Bases are closer, they're more accessible. And we do have protection. But we've also got a lot of vulnerabilities there. We've got a lot of assets in the region.

They would have to go after these bases on the territory of other states in the region. So it would be a regional conflict at that point.

BERMAN: How vulnerable are these U.S. bases in the region?

CLARK: Well, you're going to shoot down some of the missiles and drones. Most of the drones, probably. You're not going to shoot down all the missiles in all probability.

[19:50:03]

So, you're going to take some hits. The hits may not be directly on vulnerable points inside the installation. You might hit the ground. This is what you see in Israel.

But it's definitely a threat. So yeah, we have to be prepared to work against that.

BERMAN: And do you think it's something Iran would do the minute the U.S. gets directly involved?

CLARK: I think so. I think so, because that's what they've said. There's no reason why they wouldn't follow through, once we do get involved.

And so really, the longer we postpone getting involved, the greater the likelihood that the Israelis themselves will take out many of these assets that could threaten us. But as I read it, John, I mean, I would be -- I would be advising the president, don't make a decision until you have to.

But as I read it, the silence from the White House after today's meeting, the arrival of the air bridge tankers, some other aircraft in maybe Thursday, maybe Friday, maybe Saturday, we'll probably see a positive decision. I think it's certainly leaning in that direction.

BERMAN: The silence may very well speak volumes. What if Iran, all of a sudden, said it's going to shut down all enrichment at Fordow? Do you think that would be enough at this point to get Israel to stand down?

CLARK: Well, not without some other assurances. So, if they say that, then Israel, the United States, the International Atomic Energy Agency, we're going to go in there. We've got to see what damage is done. We've got to see what those facilities are.

I'm not sure we know where everything is. And the strikes have been centered on western Iran. They're not so stupid that they wouldn't put some stuff in eastern Iran where it's harder to get at for Israel. So, we don't know where those assets are necessarily. We haven't taken them out yet. So far as we know.

And so, there's a lot of work to be done. This is not a sort of make an agreement and it's up to you all. I'm sure we can trust you absolutely cannot trust this regime on this.

BERMAN: General Wesley Clark, thank you very much.

OUTFRONT next, breaking news, new explosions over Tehran tonight as President Trump threatens to kill the ayatollah. A special report on Iran's supreme leader, next.

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[19:57:02]

BERMAN: Breaking news, as the world waits on President Trump's next move in Iran, CNN contributor Barak Ravid of "Axios" is really a better source than anyone when it comes to the Middle East reports. He thinks it is likely that President Trump will strike now.

It comes as the president threatened in a way to kill the ayatollah, posting online in part, quote, we know exactly where the so-called supreme leader is hiding. He is an easy target but is safe there. We're not going to take him out, kill, at least not for now.

Melissa Bell is OUTFRONT.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

MELISSA BELL, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): For over 35 years, Iran's supreme leader Ali Hosseini Khamenei has ruled with an iron grip, delivering a blunt message to the west.

AYATOLLAH ALI KHAMENEI, IRAN'S SUPREME LEADER: We in no way are willing to start an all-out war with the United States, but if it so happens, we will inevitably put up a very strong defense.

BELL: Five days into an all-out conflict with Israel, the question now is how firm Ayatollah Khamenei's grip remains. Regional proxies like Hezbollah and Bashar al-Assad's Syrian regime are on the sidelines, leaving Iran to fight back alone.

KARIM SADJADPOUR, SENIOR FELLOW, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE: It's led by an 85-year-old supreme leader who doesn't really have the physical or cognitive acumen to be fighting this very high tech war.

BELL: It was the 1989 death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the father of Iran's Islamic Revolution, that brought Khamenei to power.

Since then, he's brutally suppressed internal dissent. First in 2009, when the green movement protested what it claimed were rigged, election results.

KHAMENEI: If they don't stop this, then the consequences and the writing everything, they will be held accountable for all this.

BELL: Then again, in 2022, the death in police custody of a young Kurdish Iranian woman, Mahsa Amini, sparked months of nationwide protests, met once again with violent repression.

Israeli attacks have now eliminated several key regime figures targeting not only nuclear facilities, but also Iran's state broadcaster, Israel's prime minister has even addressed what he believes would happen if Khamenei himself were targeted.

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU, ISRAELI PRIME MINISTER: It's not going to escalate the conflict. It's going to end the conflict.

BELL: For now, an American opposition appears to be holding back Israel's plan to strike Khamenei directly. But the supreme leader has vowed to fight on.

KHAMENEI: We must give a strong response. God willing, we will respond with strength and we will show them no mercy.

BELL: The question now, whether Iranians themselves will stand with the leader they've so often opposed.

Melissa Bell, CNN, Paris. (END VIDEOTAPE)

BERMAN: All right. Thanks for joining us. I'll be back on in the morning.

"AC360" starts right now.