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Erin Burnett Outfront

Early U.S. Intel At Odds With Trump Claim Iran Sites "Obliterated"; Calls For Jihad; Where Is The Ayatollah? Aired 7-8p ET

Aired June 24, 2025 - 19:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[19:00:25]

ERIN BURNETT, CNN HOST: OUTFRONT next:

Live from the Middle East. The breaking news this hour: The U.S. strikes on Iran did not destroy Iran's nuclear sites. This is according to an early U.S. intelligence assessment.

This assessment comes in spite of Trump's claims they were, quote, literally totally obliterated. We have much more new reporting ahead breaking this hour.

Also breaking this hour, Iran claiming victory as the world waits to see if this fragile ceasefire holds back a broad war. As one Iranian tells CNN, if the ayatollah calls for jihad, there will be jihad. We'll take you live to Tehran.

And where is the supreme leader tonight? More than 24 hours since he has spoken out a one sentence tweet, raising way more questions than answers.

Let's go OUTFRONT.

And good evening. I'm Erin Burnett, and welcome to a special edition of OUTFRONT.

We begin with the breaking news here in the Middle East, where a fragile ceasefire could fall apart at any moment but right now is holding CNN tonight, also reporting that Trump's military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities did not destroy Tehran's enrichment facilities. This is according to sources who have seen an early and classified U.S. intelligence assessment of the strikes.

Now, this is one assessment among many that well get. It's a very early one, but it is a major development and one that CNN is first to report. The report could have huge implications for where I'm standing tonight here along the Strait of Hormuz. Just behind us to the north, Iran, which according to this early assessment, the U.S. strikes only set back that Iranian nuclear ambitions back by a few months.

This, of course, is at total odds with what Trump and his administration claimed in the moments since the strikes hit.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: Iran's key nuclear enrichment facilities have been completely and totally obliterated.

KAROLINE LEAVITT, WHITE HOUSE PRESS SECRETARY: We are confident, yes, that Iran's nuclear sites were completely and totally obliterated.

PETE HEGSETH, DEFENSE SECRETARY: Iran's nuclear ambitions have been obliterated.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BURNETT: You heard the word, the confidence and the word obliterated, obliterated, obliterated. Not a word that you just use casually in passing in this context, a word that says something.

And this source is now telling CNN of this classified intelligence assessment that the facilities were not obliterated. And based on this early assessment, the damage to all three sites struck by the U.S. bombs was largely restricted to above ground structures.

Now, of course, the mission itself was an incredible one. It involved more than a dozen multimillion dollar 30,000-pound bunker buster bombs, all of it delivered with precision and excellence by the teams tasked with the duty.

Now we've seen the aftermath of what happened the before and after satellite images. That's from Fordow enrichment plant that the U.S. struck, and that is the one that we kept hearing. Well, if the U.S. just dropped those bombs, the U.S. is the only one with the power and the bombs and the planes to deliver, right, those heavy bombs that could go deep inside a mountain and destroy what was beneath.

But given what we are learning right now, given that these bombs have never been tested in an actual combat scenario, there were a lot of questions about, well, we don't actually know what's under there and how deep it is. So, would they work anyway? Could they successfully penetrate what is underneath?

Lawmakers have to wait for those answers. There is a pair of classified briefings for lawmakers that was actually supposed to happen today. With these first assessments, it was suddenly canceled. It was abruptly canceled with no explanation.

So, in a moment, I'm going to be joined by the top Democrat on the Senate Intelligence Committee, Senator Mark Warner. Decades of experience and news of this classified assessment comes in the context of this this delicate ceasefire, minute by minute, we watch it here in the Middle East.

Natasha Bertrand broke the news of the assessment, OUTFRONT live in Washington with more of the details on this early intelligence assessment.

Kristen Holmes is traveling with President Trump at the NATO summit in the Netherlands.

But, Natasha, let's start with you. This late breaking reporting that you are now just getting all these details about the Pentagon's initial assessment of this operation. So, the Pentagon, right. This is uniform military. This is their actual assessment.

Tell us, you know, who's behind it and what it says from your reporting.

NATASHA BERTRAND, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, Erin. So, we're told that this is an assessment that was produced by the Defense Intelligence Agency, which is the Pentagon's intelligence arm, and of course, the DIA is only one of about 18 different intelligence agencies inside the intel community, and there is bound to be a lot more intelligence analysis and collection done in the days to come about just what the impact was of these U.S. strikes on these nuclear facilities.

[19:05:09]

But it is very notable, of course, that we are getting this very early readout from the U.S. intelligence community based on a Central Command battle damage assessment that the strikes did not completely obliterate Iran's these nuclear facilities, and that, in fact, some of the core components of those facilities, including some of the centrifuges, as well as the enriched uranium, were not destroyed either. And in fact, two of the sources who have seen this assessment also say that it says that some of the enriched uranium was actually moved out of these facilities prior to the U.S. striking them.

And so all of this, of course, raises new questions about the effectiveness of these strikes. And it's worth noting that the U.S. intelligence community, as well as the defense community, they have long debated whether or not these massive ordnance penetrator penetrating bombs would actually be able to under -- to destroy the underground portions of these facilities. They're extremely highly fortified. They are buried extremely deeply underground.

These bombs have never been tested in combat before, though they have been tested, you know, in routine testing situations. But actually dropping them on these targets is different. And now, we're learning that the DIA does assess at this time, again, it is still early that they did not destroy those key underground components, something that Secretary of Defense Hegseth is continuing to dispute. He gave us a statement earlier today saying that he believes that they were obliterated.

But still a very interesting piece of intelligence coming out now from the Defense Intelligence Agency, which is, as you said, part of the Pentagon, Erin.

BURNETT: Yeah, absolutely. All right. Thank you so much, Natasha. And we emphasize as Natasha, as this is an early assessment, but if it takes time to get the answers to these questions, it is worth considering how people within moments of this could have been so confident in saying obliterated was an accurate term as well.

I want to bring in Kristen Holmes, who is with Trump at that NATO summit in the Netherlands.

And, Kristen, look obliterated was the word the president used, as well as those around him, immediately after the strikes. How is the White House reacting to the news of this intelligence assessment, which says something at these early stages, that is quite the opposite?

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Well, Erin, they're not reacting well. But it's not just the intelligence assessment to keep in mind here. You know, many of these White House officials had seen or at least heard about this intelligence assessment. It's the fact that it was leaked and the pushback that I've been getting from these White House officials is the fact that they say this is very early. This is only one intelligence assessment. We plan on seeing a number of them.

We know that there's going to be an Israeli intelligence assessment. We know that there's going to be other intel agencies who get involved that this is preliminary. So that's the pushback you're hearing from the White House.

We also heard from Karoline Leavitt, who said this in a statement. She acknowledged that it exists, didn't push back on that, but said this, "This alleged assessment is flat out wrong and was classified as top secret, but was still leaked to CNN by an anonymous low level loser in the intelligence community. The leaking of this alleged assessment is a clear attempt to demean President Trump and discredit the brave fighter pilots who conducted a perfectly executed mission to obliterate Iran's nuclear program. Everyone knows what happens when you drop 14 30,000-pound bombs perfectly on their targets. Total obliteration."

Okay, so a couple of things to break down on this. One is that the Trump administration does keep saying that. Any pushback on what was destroyed seems to be pushback on the actual fighters themselves or the pilots themselves, and that is not the case. The damage that was done, they could have executed it flawlessly, but still, the bombs could not have done what they intended them to do.

So that has nothing to do with the pilots. But on the other side of this, the reason why this is so interesting is that we know we reported that President Trump privately, before he made the decision to launch these strikes, continued asking his team, are these going to fully destroy these nuclear sites? He wanted to completely destroy these nuclear sites.

And he was told by a number of his officials and advisers that it would. And the other thing that were watching closely here is that this is just the beginning of what President Trump believes is part of his long game in the Middle East, which is a big part of that. An Iranian nuclear deal.

And the question is, if there was little damage and if we learn if the Iranians learned that there was little damage, does that change what they're willing to bring to the table or come to the table with when they sit down for those negotiations?

BURNETT: Yeah, absolutely. All right. Kristen Holmes, thank you so very much. Traveling with the president at the NATO summit. Thank you. And OUTFRONT now, Democratic Senator Mark Warner of Virginia. He is, of course, the top Democrat on the intelligence committee.

And, Senator Warner, I'm really grateful for your time tonight.

So, we get this early intel assessment information that's come out from the Pentagon, from the DIA, saying that in the U.S. strikes the core of Iran's nuclear program was not destroyed, likely only set back a few months at most.

[19:10:05]

What's your reaction to that?

SEN. MARK WARNER (D-VA): Well, Erin, I'm not going to comment on any kind of classified information. There's a reason that information is classified. But I got a lot of questions for the administration. They should have had that briefing today.

And I can tell you there was plenty of debate in the open domain about whether bunker buster bombs alone could take out Iran's facilities. We also have got questions about where all of Iran's enriched uranium is located at this point.

And if it's not taken out, what next? Are our troops still in harm's way? Have -- will we have a cyberattack? I mean, I would love to have Iran their nuclear capabilities eliminated without further retribution against America and a ceasefire. But I've got an awful lot of questions that in many cases, just should have been answered before we took this action. That's why we have this consultation process.

I remind you, you know, President Trump got close to this in his first term and drew back and, you know, again, eight days ago, the American intelligence community still said Iran had not made a move towards a bomb. You know, is the president dismissing all of that or is he saying he's going to trust Israel's intelligence over American intelligence?

We're in a pretty unchartered territory. And as we've seen from history, when you mess with the intelligence in the Middle East, you end up with circumstances like Iraq.

BURNETT: And which, of course, the horror that that brought to the U.S. for so many years and to the Middle East.

I'm curious, though, senator, you know, you were supposed to receive a classified briefing today of the strikes and what they had achieved as far as the administration knows it to be at this time. That was abruptly postponed.

Now, do you know why that was? Do you think that that postponement is directly related to this intelligence assessment that we're learning about?

WARNER: I don't know. The administration said they wanted to have Secretary Hegseth and Secretary Rubio back, but, you know, when you do foreign policy by tweet and that's what the president's been doing, making bold claims. And then the administration one day they're saying our conflict is not with the Iranian people. Its only about the nuclear facilities.

Then the president says no regime change is on the table. Then he backs off. Who amongst our allies, let alone our adversaries, know what to believe is the policy of the American government in a very, very dangerous part of the world.

BURNETT: So as, you know, we look at the situation now as the highest ranking Senate Democrat on the Intelligence Committee, Senator, you're a member of the gang of eight. You are traditionally briefed on highly classified matters. And we understand from a source that you weren't actually told, even despite all of those things about these strikes, which any country on the receiving end would, would consider an act of war, including our own.

You were not told until after they occurred. Have you received any briefing at all on the strikes?

WARNER: I have reviewed preliminary intelligence. It is still classified. I'm not going to comment on that, but I've got a lot of questions on Thursday when we see the administration officials and as I said at the outset, there was an active debate in the public domain about whether bunker busters alone could take out Iranian facilities.

And frankly, we didn't -- I've seen no direct information about whether we even know where all the enriched uranium was located prior to Saturday. So we've got a lot of questions. I think, before you take this kind of action, the American people, frankly, not just the senate, but the American people, are owed some answers because the can the question is what next? Is there future strikes? Will our troops, are they in harm's way? Will there be a cyberattack or a terrorist attack? What next?

And is the president going to completely disregard American intelligence, like the conclusion that Iran had not made the decision about moving towards a bomb? Or this is dangerous, dangerous stuff. And boy, oh, boy, there has been a lack of clarity.

And I would love -- I would love it to play out the way the president has proposed. Iran has been taken out. There's no further retaliation. And you've got peace now between Iran and Israel. I'm not sure that's going to be -- I hope it's the future, but I've got a lot of questions about that.

BURNETT: Senator Warner, so much appreciate your time tonight. Thank you.

WARNER: Thank you, Erin.

BURNETT: All right. Let's go to Leon Panetta now.

[19:15:01]

He's the former secretary of defense, also the former CIA director. And, Director Panetta, as you see, all of this, this, this assessment

that we're talking about, that I'm talking about there with senator warner. It's an early assessment. There are going to be others, of course, and we'll see what time shows.

But if this holds, there are clearly major implications for the United States.

LEON PANETTA, FORMER SECRETARY OF DEFENSE: Well, there's no question. Look, I think -- I think it's fair to say that at the Pentagon, after a military strike, the first thing that has to be done is to get a damage assessment and not speculate on exactly how much damage has been done.

Yes, these are big weapons. Yes, they can cause a lot of damage, but if you suddenly jump ahead and use words like obliterate when you really don't have any intelligence to really back up what you're saying, it creates a real credibility gap for the president and for the United States. They ought to be more careful in these kinds of situations.

BURNETT: So, Secretary Panetta, if this assessment holds and again, we know its early, there will be others. But if this holds the crucial question is going to be, was the U.S. operation a military strike? What any anyone on the receiving end, including the U.S., would call an act of war, right on the recipient. Was that strike worth it?

PANETTA: Well, that's going be a question that's going to be debated for a long time. But I think the problem is what was -- what was the military objective here? And were we clear about what that objective was?

The reality is that there's been a lot of statements about totally wiping out Iran's nuclear capability and their nuclear enrichment capability, both by Israel and the United States. But the reality is that unless you want regime change and you want to put boots on the ground, that's not going to happen.

If, on the other hand, you take a realistic goal, which is that you can cripple their ability to enrich and develop nuclear, nuclear weapon, and you can basically set them back a number of years. That is an achievable objective. But that's not what they said. And they're paying the price for that now.

BURNETT: Yeah. No, it's not what they said. And, of course, I know we're awaiting breaking details here on the Israeli assessment of the U.S. strikes. We know the Israelis had said that they themselves, prior to the U.S. strike, had set the program back 2 to 3 years, which was a very significant thing to say in their initial assessment. But it is an extraordinary moment. Secretary, as I stand here in the Middle East.

I mean, President Trump earlier today was so frustrated in these early hours. And, you know, I was standing back here along the Strait of Hormuz and we were saying, will this cease fire hold? We were counting the minutes into it. Then there were the strikes after from both sides. It seemed it was going to fall apart.

He was so frustrated by that that the whole thing could be over, that ceasefire, that he said this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the fuck they're doing.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BURNETT: Secretary Panetta, you know, President Trump is a person who is loose with language and says inappropriate things all the time, but he doesn't actually usually swear like that, right? That actually was different. And it showed a level of raw frustration and exhaustion that was very clear. What did you take away from that?

PANETTA: Well, there's no question that the president of the United States was expressing very deep frustration and I suspect that I know why, because the president really did want a ceasefire.

They had gone in. We had done the strike. The Israelis had done their strike. They had in fact, I think crippled a lot of their nuclear capability on the part of Iran.

But I'm sure he met resistance from Israel with regards to the ceasefire, with regards to basically saying, times up. You know, let's basically take a break here and stop fighting. I'm sure he met resistance.

We've -- I've -- in the past I've dealt with presidents who've dealt with Netanyahu and basically had the same kind of frustration in that discussion.

[19:20:09]

So, I'm sure that's what this is about. But the hope is that we can hold on to this ceasefire, that it won't just be tenuous, that everybody can take a break here.

There has been some accomplishments as a result of what's happened over these last 12 days. We ought to be satisfied with those and then get prepared to develop the intelligence we absolutely are going to need in order to determine what Iran is going to do next.

BURNETT: Yes, absolutely. Of course, and in this tenuous ceasefire here.

Thank you so much, Secretary Panetta. I appreciate your time.

And next, we have more breaking news. We do have new reporting tonight. Okay. And this is very significant. We're going to be sharing this with you in just a moment. Israel's intelligence appears to back up the early U.S. assessment that Iranian nuclear program was not obliterated by the U.S. strikes. We have the breaking details next.

And Iranians taking to the streets tonight, claims of total victory on the street. Fred Pleitgen is there live in Tehran.

And missing in action, the most powerful person in Iran, the ayatollah, the supreme leader, holed up in a bunker tonight. But where? And why has the world not heard from him in more than 24 hours?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[19:25:54]

BURNETT: So breaking news. We are just getting some new reporting on Israel's assessment of the strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities. This is crucial because the context here is, you know, CNN learning our Natasha Bertrand, reporting on that early U.S. intelligence assessment, which found that the U.S. military strikes did not destroy Iran's nuclear program and likely only set it back for months.

Jim Sciutto is OUTFRONT in Washington with his new reporting.

And, Jim, in the context of the firestorm around this report from the Pentagon, what you're learning from Israeli intelligence is so crucial. What are you finding out?

JIM SCIUTTO, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYST: A senior Israeli intelligence source tells me that Israel's own BDA, or bomb damage assessment of the U.S. strike, specifically on the Fordow underground nuclear facility, mirrors that, that CNN is reporting from the Defense Intelligence Agency, and that is that the damage from those strikes was limited and perhaps even less extensive than believed initially.

So, the Israeli assessment matching the U.S. assessment, as we were reporting. Now, both the U.S. and Israel continue to gather intelligence. And I've been told throughout that doing BDAs takes time and it takes multiple sources, not just images from the sky, right. But also human intelligence, signals, intercepts, et cetera.

I will say this though, Erin, I was told by this Israeli intelligence source that Israel's assessment is that the sum total of U.S. and Israeli strikes on those nuclear facilities set back Iran's nuclear program by two years. So going further than that, U.S. assessment of perhaps setting it back months.

The other point I would note is this that I've been told in this context, but also repeatedly by Israeli officials, that if Iran attempts to reconstitute or rebuild these damaged facilities, Israel will certainly strike again. Of course, the question is, would the U.S. do the same?

BURNETT: Right. The real question. And also, Jim, I know that, you know, these could be different -- different analyzes. But before the U.S. strikes, the Israeli government had already said the prime minister had said that the Israeli strikes prior to Trump's strikes had set the nuclear program back two to three years.

SCIUTTO: Yeah.

BURNETT: So if what you're saying, if that, that that would indicate, I suppose, in some way that the U.S. strike may not have really had much of an impact at all? Unclear. It's hard to connect those two, but it certainly raises that. It certainly raises that question.

All right. This is huge. Obviously hugely significant reporting from Jim Sciutto. And it matches what Natasha Bertrand is putting out here, Jim, from what you're learning.

SCIUTTO: Well, I one thing I will say as well, this, this source said to me, and this is not inconsistent with what you'll hear from U.S. intelligence officials, that BDAs are, in the words of this Israeli source, an art as opposed to a science right to some degree, right?

And we should not be so surprised by the limited nature of the damage, because I've been told repeatedly for years that to completely destroy these sites, you would likely need multiple strikes, even with the size of the weapons, these bunker busters that were used were used. Multiple strikes and also a ground component, right? You know, boots on the ground to assess, but also go into the areas that you couldn't reach from the air. And that was I'm sure that was on the menu of options the president had. But given the danger, it was not one that he -- that he chose to take.

BURNETT: All right. Jim Sciutto, thank you so much. A significant new reporting there.

Let's go to Scott Roecker, nuclear expert, vice president of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, and retired Army General James "Spider" Marks, former commanding general of the Army Intelligence Center. So, in that capacity, seen so many of these assessments.

So, Scott, you hear the Israelis, the bomb damage assessment, mirroring the reporting of the U.S. initial assessment from the pentagon, that the U.S. strikes would have possibly set the program back by months and did not obliterate it. Are you surprised by these findings? And that the Israeli initial assessment seems to support it?

SCOTT ROECKER, VICE PRESIDENT, NUCLEAR THREAT INITIATIVE: Yeah, these reports are definitely concerning, but I would say it's still too early to know whether these strikes were successful from a military standpoint.

[19:30:03]

But I think it's important to take this, these reports in the context of what we heard from the vice president earlier this week, that the highly enriched uranium that Iran possesses was not -- was not addressed in this attack.

And so, all the reports that we're hearing are definitely concerning. And the highly enriched uranium is really important because that's the most difficult step in getting a nuclear weapon. And so, the fact that that was not addressed in the attack is a big concern for me.

But fundamentally, I don't think you can address this military or the Iranian nuclear program through military strikes. You can destroy equipment, but you can't take away that knowledge that know how this the Iranians have been working on nuclear issues for, you know, decades.

It's multifaceted. It's a extensive program. And so, for me, the military solution never made sense from the start.

BURNETT: General, you spent your military career as an intelligence officer. So you've been part of these assessments. How do you see it?

MAJ. GEN. JAMES "SPIDER" MARKS (RET.), CNN MILITARY ANALYST: Well, you know, fundamentally, when you do intelligence, there's intelligence that you share. Now, clearly, we have an arrangement that we call the Five Eyes with that group of nations that we openly share, essentially everything. And with the Israelis, we have routinely been in a sharing type environment and specifically with this current circumstance, we've opened the door.

So, what you're seeing possibly is the Israeli assessment and the DIA, Defense Intelligence Agency, assessment shared the same intel and in many cases, those narratives within the body of that assessment might have been cut and paste and moved from the Israeli assessment to the U.S. assessment. That doesn't concern me at all.

Second point -- second point is we're conflating, not us -- I mean, everybody in the administration is conflating a bunch of terms, and it drives military dudes nuts. What does "obliterated" mean? I don't know, that's a street term. I can obliterate a guy with a punch in the throat. I can destroy.

But the military terms are you either destroy or you defeat or you delay. And if you destroy, it disappears. If you defeat it, it's probably going to come back. And if you delay it, you give yourself some time to figure out, you know, they may resurrect themselves over a course of time, and then you get prepared for the next step.

So those are two fundamental things I think we should be considering.

BURNETT: Right, right. So, Scott, when -- I want to show again, these are the images that anyone watching has seen in recent days. And we tried to understand them. The Fordow nuclear site, which was at the core of the U.S. strike. Right. And it had been presented by some erroneously.

But, you know, if Trump just decides to drop one of those mother of all bombs, it goes away. It was clear before that it was not that simple. And it's certainly clear now.

You see the craters from the U.S. bombs there. They look very small from the satellite, but obviously, that shows just how huge they are.

Former U.N. nuclear weapons inspector David Albright. I know you know him. He used these and other images and some other information that he found to do his own assessment. He sent it to us. I just wanted to read part of what he said. He said overall, Israel's and U.S. attacks have effectively destroyed Iran's centrifuge enrichment program. It will be a long time before Iran comes anywhere near the capability it had before the attack. That being said, there are residuals, such as stocks of 60 percent, 20

percent and 35 percent enriched uranium and centrifuges manufactured, but not yet installed. Those non-destroyed parts pose a threat.

It sounds as if he's focused on what you're focused on, which is what we don't know about the enriched uranium and their centrifuge backups.

ROECKER: Yeah, that's exactly right. And I think he's speaking mostly about, you know, the Fordow and Natanz, the two known enrichment facilities in Iran. But we lost a lot of visibility, visibility on the Iranian nuclear program when the U.S. left the JCPOA, the so-called Iran deal, in 2018.

After that point, we lost track of where centrifuges are located, where highly enriched uranium is located as well. And so, the fact that, you know, these military strikes have just focused on the two known enrichment facilities, it doesn't address the entire problem. There are centrifuges that are still out there that we don't know where they're located. I mean, in fact, a couple of weeks ago, the Iranians said they had a third enrichment facility, which we haven't heard anything more about from the U.S. or the Israelis.

And so, this is really important because that's the machine you need to basically turn the 60 percent enriched uranium into weapons grade, 90 percent enriched uranium.

BURNETT: We know, General, that that Israelis have penetrated from a human intelligence perspective, deeply into Iran. Do you think that means we will get real answers here?

MARKS: Yes, I would think -- absolutely. That penetration, unless it's for some reason now been uncovered and those folks are at risk. I have no reason to believe that it's been over the course of many, many years that that's been in place.

[19:35:05]

So, this is phenomenal tradecraft. And I would think that that -- those are the eyes on the target potentially that will give us much more clarity through the filter of the individual. But, you know, there's always that challenge. But having those eyes that what that primary source is essential to a really clear and precise, more precise bomb damage assessment.

Thank you both so very much. I appreciate it.

And next, we are going to take you live to Iran. The country's president casting the ceasefire as a victory. But what do people there really think. Fred Pleitgen is there.

And tonight, as we stand here, where is the ayatollah? Supposedly the most powerful man in Tehran, the religious leader of the country. What he says goes. But he has been silent for more than 24 hours. What's going on?

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) [19:40:09]

BURNETT: Welcome back to this special edition of OUTFRONT tonight. We're following the breaking news here in the Middle East. The president of Iran declaring that the country has achieved, quote, historic victory, according to

state media. This is amidst the fragile ceasefire that we are watching here on the ground.

Fred Pleitgen is OUTFRONT. He is live in Tehran.

And, Fred, what is the latest that you are actually seeing there yourself?

FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, first of all, you're absolutely right. The president saying this is a historic victory for the Iranians. The Iranians are saying that this 12-day war, as they also now call it, was imposed on them by Israel and the United States. And they are saying that their armed forces, from their vantage point, stood up to both the U.S. and the Israelis as well.

And earlier today, I was at a pretty large pro-government rally in the center of town where exactly that message was conveyed. Here's what we saw.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

PLEITGEN: Iran's leadership is hailing the ceasefire between Israel, Iran and the United States as a victory for Iran. They say that they forced the U.S. and Israel into the cease fire. They essentially say that President Trump came begging for a ceasefire because of Iran's strong response, not just to the U.S. bombing Iran nuclear installations, but, of course, also by firing missiles towards Israeli territory.

And the Iranians are saying that for them, they consider this to be a show of strength by their military. And the event that you're seeing right now is actually Iran's leadership saying, thank you to the military and thank you to the armed forces. We've been speaking to folks here on the ground, and many of them are hailing and praising the ceasefire. But others say that they're also critical of the ceasefire and feel that Iran's military should have fought on.

(voice-over): "Now we're obeying the commands of the supreme leader," she says. "Whatever he says, we will follow. If he orders jihad, we will follow. If he orders us to hold back, we will hold back."

"The ceasefire has not been something good or profitable for us, he says, because we should have finished the story. We should have totally wiped out Israel."

"We will crush their might," he says. "We'll throw a punch into the mouths of the United States and the Zionists."

"Our opinion is always peace," she says. "Now, it depends on them, how they behave."

One thing Iran's leadership has been very clear about is they say that Iran's nuclear program was not destroyed by those airstrikes conducted by the Trump administration. They say the knowledge of nuclear energy remains here in Iran, and that its nuclear program will certainly come back to life and even exists right now.

The other thing that the Iranians are saying as well, despite that the ceasefire is taking place, they do not trust the United States and certainly don't trust Israel. And they say at any point in time their finger is on the trigger.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BURNETT: Incredible reporting from our Fred Pleitgen on the ground right now as we speak in Tehran and a significant nationalist fervor has been generated by this conflict, it is worth noting, as you see that report, though, of course, criticism of the Iranian government is unusual to find on the streets because most activists and opposition voices are suppressed.

Well, next, Iran's powerful supreme leader, the ayatollah, out of sight. The image of an American flag burning. This image was the last thing that he posted yesterday before the cease fire. Where is he?

And Israel once again shifting its focus to Gaza, where just today reports that nearly 50 more people were killed while desperately waiting for aid.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BURNETT: Welcome back to the special edition of OUTFRONT. We are along the strait of Hormuz here, just to the north of where I'm standing behind us is Iran, where the Supreme Leader, the Ayatollah Khamenei, is silent right now.

It has been more than 24 hours since we've heard from him, which is stunning considering these 24 hours. His last post, reportedly sent from a bunker. It is a burning image of the American flag. It says those who know the Iranian people and their history know that the Iranian nation isn't a nation that surrenders. And he posted the image of that American flag burning. That's it.

Haven't heard from him about the ceasefire, since the ceasefire. Nothing.

Nazila Fathi was "The New York Times" correspondent based in Tehran for a decade. And Karim Sadjadpour is senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, decades covering Iran.

And, Karim, in these 24 hours, you have a ceasefire. You have a change in in the arc of an historic conflict that could have turned into a much, much bigger war. And in those 24 hours, we have not heard a single word from Khamenei who wed heard was, you know, was in a bunker, and one Iranian source was saying to me, and I don't know whether it's true or not, but that they struggled to get in contact with him during the actual ceasefire process.

So, you've talked about him as having limited physical and cognitive bandwidth. You know, what do you think is going on right now?

KARIM SADJADPOUR, SENIOR FELLOW, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE: Well, you know, imagine yourself, you're 86 years old, limited physical, cognitive, stamina, and you're meant to lead this incredibly engrossing, high tech war against the greatest superpower in the world, the United States, the greatest military in the Middle East, Israel, and against your own people.

And you're doing that at a time when your senior military commanders have been assassinated, men that you've been relying on for decades, all of a sudden, were disappeared. They were killed in their bedrooms or in their bunkers.

So, he at the moment is, in my view, leading this Swiss cheese regime, which has been thoroughly penetrated by Israeli intelligence.

[19:50:00]

He's got to be filled with paranoia and mistrust. And as far as we know, he hasn't been in touch with his foreign minister and men who are meant to negotiate on his behalf.

So, I think he's really in survival mode right now.

BURNETT: I mean, Nazila, that is a stunning thing, right? I mean, you know what? I had heard that they couldn't get in contact with him. Karim saying, not in contact with his foreign minister who's the one who acknowledged the cease fire. I mean, this is supposed to be the supreme leader.

It is pretty stunning. What are you hearing from your sources?

NAZILA FATHI, FORMER JOURNALIST FORCED TO FLEE IRAN: Well, everything that Karim said is right. It's pretty much the speculation in the country. But people are very mad about this because it was his defiant position over Iran's nuclear program that dragged the country into this conflict.

And then when the strikes started, people were pretty much on their own. There were no sirens, there was no air defense. They were on their own to run away and find safety. While the supreme leader had disappeared into a bunker.

So yes, I don't think even the post was posted by him. He definitely have a social media team that takes care of that. And basically, the last time we heard from him was last week, there was no even reaction from him when the U.S. forces bombed the three nuclear facilities in Iran. So, this is very surprising.

BURNETT: Yeah. And, Karim, you know, I have heard some incredible frustration, unprecedented frustration, frankly, that I've never heard before about, you know, he's in a bunker. What about everybody else, right? That the sacrifices the country made in his pursuit of this nuclear program.

But, Karim, how far does this go? Is this a moment of regime change or even if it is, does nothing really change?

SADJADPOUR: Well, Erin, however you look at it, Iran is going to have a looming political transition because he is 86 years old. And I doubt this profound humiliation and emasculation he's experienced both in his regional proxies and his nuclear program being decimated. He's not going to come out stronger from this.

And so, the big question is, can they manage some kind of a peaceful transition, or will the system implode? The thing you want to really look at are our fissures, political fissures at the top. Do you start to see defections, you know, high level criticism of Khamenei?

Because if that starts to happen, then it triggers popular tumult and then it becomes a vicious cycle which can quickly unravel the regime.

BURNETT: All right. Thank you both very much. We're grateful.

And such a -- the big -- the big question hanging over all of this.

Next, Israel shifting its focus back to Gaza for its military where nearly 50 people have died in just the past 24 hours.

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[19:57:05]

BURNETT: Welcome back to our special edition of OUTFRONT, where we are following the breaking news here in the Middle East, Israel saying its focus will now return to Gaza. The top commander in Israel tonight, hailing what they call the, quote, phenomenal achievements of the war with Iran, also saying that it's time to bring the hostages home and dismantle Hamas, which is where this all began.

And it comes as more than 600 Palestinians, 600 have been killed in this ten-day war, totally separate from this, while the world was looking at Iran.

I'm joined now by Seth Jones, who advised U.S. Special Forces in Afghanistan. Seth, of course, was just in Gaza recently.

So, Seth, you have seen this on the ground as the world was looking at the Israel Iran missiles going back and forth, the fears of a massive war, more than 600 people were killed in Gaza, Palestinians. Now, this is according to Palestinian health officials. We can't verify it. But how much of what has just happened here, this this success with Iran, how much has it emboldened Israel when it comes to Gaza?

SETH JONES, PRESIDENT, DEFENSE & SECURITY DEPARTMENT, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: Well, Erin, I think when you look at Netanyahu's polling ratings right now, he is probably at the strongest place right now in his poll ratings than he has been since October 7th, which puts him in a very strong domestic political situation. I think unlike many people predicted, he has seriously degraded

probably the most competent terrorist group in the world in Hezbollah. Then he, in a matter of 48 hours, he, his Israeli air forces controlled the skies in Iran. And with the U.S. has at least degraded Iran's nuclear capability.

So, I think for the Israeli population, polls show he's in a very strong position. The challenge is Gaza for him, which is it's been -- it's been unclear what his position is, Erin, long term, it's easy in one sense to clear areas and even to hold them with the IDF, which is what he's done. But it's not clear what his plan is for what happens next? Who does he hand control of Gaza over to what type of Palestinian entity? That's his biggest challenge right now.

BURNETT: And we haven't heard. You know, that's been the question from day one. But, Seth, you've been on the ground there. You've been on the ground in Gaza recently. Youve met with Israeli military officials.

Where is the campaign in Gaza now?

JONES: Well, I think -- I mean, look, Hamas has been decimated or at least severely degraded. Its leadership has been much of his leadership has been killed. But the problem, Erin, is, as you know, is you cannot kill an ideology. And in fact, the civilian casualties have created large scale animosity against the Israeli state. And the Israelis are going to have to live with the continuing hatred among Palestinians.

So, there will be an element that continues to thrive in Palestinian areas, both in Gaza and the West Bank, to resist Israeli activity in their area. And I think the IDF is very aware of that challenge. And this is why it's the challenge the Israelis face moving from the military side of this to the political process, which is -- which is -- which is where Netanyahu has not succeeded.

BURNETT: All right. Seth Jones, thank you so very much.

And thanks to all of you for joining us here from the Middle East.

"AC360" begins now.