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Erin Burnett Outfront
Trump's Mixed Signals On Iran: "Very Complete" Versus "Could Go Further"; Newest Video Appears To Confirm U.S. Strike On Base Near Iran School; Oil Prices Surging Amid New U.S.-Israeli Strikes On Iran. Aired 7-8p ET
Aired March 09, 2026 - 19:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[19:00:23]
ERIN BURNETT, CNN HOST: OUTFRONT next:
The breaking news moments ago, Trump saying the United States won't relent until the enemy is defeated. The way he's saying it, hours after claiming the war is, quote/unquote, "very complete".
CNN is learning tonight that the U.S. administration is weighing a plan to send U.S. Special Forces into Iran to retrieve enriched uranium.
And as CNN investigation tonight looks at the newest and clearest evidence that suggests the United States was behind that deadly strike on an Iranian girls' school.
And oil prices swinging wildly. A Pulitzer Prize-winning economist warns that this could be the ultimate nightmare scenario.
Let's go OUTFRONT.
(MUSIC)
BURNETT: And good evening. And welcome to this special edition of OUTFRONT, "War with Iran". I'm Erin Burnett, live in Tel Aviv tonight.
And we begin with the breaking news. President Trump, who is facing immense political and economic pressure over his war in Iran tonight, giving wildly conflicting messages.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: And we'll not relent until the enemy is totally and decisively defeated.
I could call it, or we could go further, and we're going to go further.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BURNETT: So, we're going to go further and decisively defeating the enemy, whatever it takes. But three hours ago, he told CBS news, quote, I think the war is very complete. Pretty much. Well, that statement posted by CBS correspondent Weijia Jiang was at
3:16 p.m. Well, President Donald Trump knows the timing of that very well. At 3:17 p.m., the Dow Jones Industrial Average shot up, major recovery. Oil went down.
Until then, of course, there had been fear. And frankly, overnight in the oil market panic. Oil had gone well above $100 a barrel. It was absolutely incredible what we witnessed. It was at the highest in four years.
There was worry and fear and panic, as I said about a global economic catastrophe. But it is clear tonight, long after the markets have formally closed, that Trump, at least for now, does not have an intention of ramping the war down. In fact, CNN is learning this hour that the Trump administration is considering a highly complex and risky operation to retrieve Iran's known highly enriched uranium.
Now, that would be a massive mission that would require boots on the ground. It would require significant forces -- special forces, and it would put a significant number of American ground troops in harm's way.
Robert Kelly is a former chief nuclear inspector for the IAEA. He told OUTFRONT that the United States, in his view, probably doesn't even really have a clue where that uranium is. He said, quote, "It can be split up into so many batches so it's probably not all in one place. Seems like a script for a suicide mission with little chance of success."
Well, that's his view. But tonight, President Trump is taking on Iran's new leadership including the newly minted supreme leader, warning that he won't hesitate to take down any successor who assumes power without his input.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: Their terrorist leaders are gone or counting down the minutes until they will be gone.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BURNETT: Well, those comments from Trump come as even more countries have been drawn into the war. British jets took out at least two Iranian drones today, one in defense of the country of Jordan. Another was heading towards the Gulf state of Bahrain.
France -- and this is a significant development, some in the shipping industry very focused on this -- announcing that it's deploying 10 warships and aircraft carriers to the Eastern Mediterranean, Red Sea and apparently Strait of Hormuz, which is why the shipping community is laser focused on it. NATO air defenses have taken down a missile entering Turkish airspace today as well, which is now the second time that a ballistic missile from Iran was shot down by NATO defenses.
And as this war continues, with no clear end in sight, we want to show you what is the reality for so many living here. You know, today we visited the site where a person was killed when an Iranian ballistic missile came through. Whether it was partially intercepted or appeared to be some sort of a cluster munition. That's a construction site where we were.
And just, you know, some peace came through and you can see all the shrapnel from it. Somebody was working at that site and they're dead now. That attack took place in a residential area, and we have seen Iran in these past 72 hours or so, maybe a bit more, using what appear to be cluster munitions over civilian areas.
Natasha Bertrand is OUTFRONT, live in Washington. Fred Pleitgen is in Tehran, which is under full assault tonight.
I want to begin with you, Natasha, because you're breaking this big news, though, on what the Trump administration is considering on the ground in Iran.
[19:05:02]
What have you learned?
NATASHA BERTRAND, CNN NATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: Yeah, Erin, so a big question surrounding this operation, of course, has been what will happen to that highly enriched uranium that Iran still has stockpiles of that could be used ultimately to create a nuclear weapon? Of course, Iran says it's not using it for that purpose, but the risk is there. And the only way to ultimately get that material out of Iran is to send special operators and U.S. ground forces into actually physically retrieve it.
And we're told that that would require a very large ground force, actually. You know, there's been a lot of talk about just sending a small elite team of special operation forces into Iran to just go into those tunnels find it and destroy it. But actually, it's a much more complex operation than that and could require dozens, if not hundreds of additional ground troops to do things like provide outer security. And that might be the 75th Ranger Regiment, might be the 82nd Airborne Division, explosive ordnance disposal experts.
It was -- it's a mission that would require extensive air cover as well as exfiltration and infiltration assets to get the troops in and out of the area.
So this would be a very complex undertaking, but it's something that the president and the administration have not necessarily ruled out, including the secretary of defense, who said just yesterday that they reserved the right to send in ground forces if necessary but they are not going to tip their hat about what their plans might be because, again, the only way to get this stuff out of those deeply, deeply entrenched tunnels that are underneath these nuclear facilities is by having someone actually physically go in and get it.
The U.S. tried to bomb it last year. They tried to attack the nuclear facilities in a way that according to Trump, totally obliterated them. But that stockpile of highly enriched uranium remained. And so, the question now is what to do about it? You know, our sources say that this is going to require diplomatic engagement, a military operation with U.S. forces is going to be very, very complicated, Erin.
BURNETT: I mean, it just incredible just from what you're saying to even think about that, the complexity and the risk. Natasha, thank you very much. With such significant reporting.
I want to bring in Fred Pleitgen. He's OUTFRONT, live in Tehran. He and his photojournalist partner in this incredible reporting they have been doing, Claudia Otto. They've been the first U.S. journalist for an American network to be on the ground in Tehran. CNN is operating in Iran with the permission of the government, but with no editorial restrictions. They have full editorial control over what we report.
So, Fred, you know, you are there. I understand, under full assault that you have been getting in these past hours, as you did have a conversation with a top Iranian official who talked to you about where this war is, how long it's going to go, what can you tell us?
FREDERIK PLEITGEN, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Erin, yeah, first of all, you're absolutely right. We were definitely under full assault for an extended period of time here in the late evening hours of last night, which is actually just a couple of hours ago, I would say that the aerial assault, those waves lasted for about an hour maybe an hour and a half and I can tell you, we were hunkered down here in the building that we stay in.
And at times the walls were shaking from some of those very heavy impacts that we were feeling. From what we're hearing and what we're seeing, it seems as though the east of Tehran got hit pretty heavily by some of those airstrikes. It's unclear what kind of facilities exactly were what exactly was hit, but certainly we could see, we could feel from there coming from that direction, that there was definitely some pretty big munitions that appear to have been dropped in that area.
Also hearing that the area around Mehrabad Airport, which is sort of the second airport here in Tehran, its inside the city, apparently that was hit. And then also big airstrikes. From what we're hearing in a town called Karaj which is about, I would say about an hour, maybe 45-minutes drive to the west of Tehran. It's actually along the main highway leading to the to the northwest of the country and to the Turkish border.
So, we can definitely confirm that there were big airstrikes and the big aerial campaign going on tonight but as far as that advisor to the supreme leader is concerned, we did speak to earlier today, the foreign policy advisor, the supreme leader. He said that this point in time, Iran is gearing up for a long war. He says at this point in time, he sees no room for diplomacy whatsoever between Iran and the United States, certainly none between Israel and Iran. Definitely.
And he also says, and I found this quite interesting, that Iran is going to be the one that's going to end this war. Iran will define and will determine when this war ends. So clearly, the Iranians believe that right now they are entrenched. They say that they have replenished their leadership. They obviously have a new supreme leader. As we've been mentioning, the president still very much in place. The security council also still very much in place. And the Iranians are saying that they believe the only way that this war is going to end is through economic pressure, as they put it, on the Trump administration from countries here in the Middle East, in the gulf region, especially, that are suffering economically, but of course, also around the world especially with what the Iranians say is that potential chokehold that they have on the Strait of Hormuz and all the hydrocarbons that get shipped through there, Erin.
[19:10:05]
BURNETT: So, Fred, I know that today, you also were able to witness one of the large gatherings for the pro-government, for people who are celebrating the fact that there is now a new supreme leader.
President Trump has just spoken about it. He has said, made it very clear he's not happy with the choice of the new supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei. Are you hearing any response there to how he is now framing it, that he's not okay with the choice?
PLEITGEN: Well, certainly, the Iranians are saying that they are the ones who make their own choice of who the supreme leader is going to be and of course, you had the council of experts, and this was announced late last night that Iran has a new supreme leader.
And I think also today, some of the events that we witnessed especially that giant gathering at the Revolution Square, which of course you visited as well when you were in Iran, that certainly also was meant as a show of force directed at the United States directed, of course, also at the world to show that Iran's processes are still intact, its leadership is intact, and that it is very much still entrenched in control of the situation.
There were definitely many, many people who came to that square, and on the one hand, they were mourning the passing of the former supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But then also, of course, celebrating and pledging allegiance to the new supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, who is of course, the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
And, you know, there were posters of the new supreme leader that were out there, many people chanting, as they so often do in events like this death to America and death to Israel. And one of the things that really stood out to us, Erin, is that the crowd was definitely charged up we were there on the ground. There were a lot of people who came to us and made a point of screaming death to America, towards our position.
So there's definitely a lot of anger towards the United States on the ground, among the hardline supporters here of the -- of the governing structure. But at the same time, you can definitely feel that the authorities are trying to project the fact that they are still in control of the situation here on the ground.
And one thing that I think is definitely worth adding is the amount of security forces that were seeing on the ground here, the checkpoints, but also the amount of security forces that we saw at this -- at this event earlier today, which also clearly shows domestically that the state here is still very much capable and still has very much has its grip on power -- Erin.
BURNETT: Yeah. All right. Fred Pleitgen, thank you so much, live in Tehran tonight, and I think just worth again saying that while you can hear its quiet around Fred right now, what he was describing when there was that onslaught of which we've seen, you know, so much footage, but just that he could feel the thundering in the buildings there.
Eyal Hulata is with us now, former Israeli national security adviser, 20-year veteran of the Mossad. He's here with me in Tel Aviv. Seth Jones and Karim Sadjadpour join us as well.
So, I appreciate all of you being with us as well.
Seth, let me just start -- I want to talk about there's a lot that Fred just said. But first, Natasha's reporting there on Special Forces, discussions within the Trump administration about deploying elite military units to secure to destroy whatever it might be, enriched uranium in Iran. And essentially, the way she described it, someone's got to go in the tunnels and essentially pick it up and take it out. I mean, right, a stunningly simple way to describe what might be one of the most complex things that we've ever discussed.
And then she said it would require significant number of U.S. ground troops to even support such a thing.
You advise special forces in Afghanistan so when you hear this reporting, how risky do you think it would be?
SETH JONES, FORMER ADVISER TO COMMANDING GENERAL, U.S. SPECIAL OPS FORCES IN AFGHANISTAN: Well, Erin, it would definitely have risks. I mean, the reality is there is something in the neighborhood of at least 400 kilograms of enriched uranium, up to about 60 percent. You can't destroy it in the sense that you don't want to put a bomb on it. That creates a potential catastrophe on the ground.
So, if you don't trust the Iranians, then you've got to resort to sending in a team on the ground that grabs it. It's in canisters like backpack sizes, and it would bring it out. I mean, U.S. special operations forces have never done this. They would have to practice.
Sort of like the way I think if people envision the practicing and the area around the UBL raid, the Osama bin Laden raid, the compound that was created for them to practice. That's sort of what we're talking about in the area of Isfahan, which is likely where its buried, but it would be risky.
And as Natasha mentioned, you'd want to put in a quick reaction force. You'd want air coverage over those areas. I think you could probably do it with a relatively small special operations team, as well as intelligence professionals. The Israelis are going to have exquisite intelligence, but you are going to need backup in case something goes poorly. But again, to be a very difficult, risky mission, one that the U.S.
has not done. And so, I mean, that just gives one a sense of the scope of what would be involved.
BURNETT: So, you said exquisite Israeli intelligence, Eyal, you spent 23 years in the Mossad. Okay, so we're talking about potentially Israeli forces participating as well, but also this exquisite intelligence.
Okay. What Seth is describing little backpack sized canisters. And you heard what the IAEA former inspector was saying here, which is his view is it would be an all multiple places. I mean, this intelligence -- you've got to break into these places, you've got all of that. But before all that, you have to know where all of it is.
Do you think that the Israelis know?
EYAL HULATA, FORMER HEAD OF ISRAEL'S NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL: Well, you know, I think first that for such an operation to work, you must have the element of surprise. And I think that the element of surprise is completely blown when this is all over. As for knowing where it is, I think there's a good understanding or maybe a lot of it. Maybe most of it is buried in tunnels in Isfahan.
This has been reported before. If this is in big canisters or smaller canisters, this is kind of information that I think is --
BURNETT: These are complex. And, I mean, right --
HULATA: Not only complex. It's full of rubble because they've been bombed first by us, the Israeli air force back in June. And then I think parts of it in Midnight Hammer.
So, the ability to know exactly where it is, but also to know how to get in and get out safely and to do this in a limited amount of time is an extremely complex operation. What's important to say, though, is that this material is, in fact, what the Iranians will want to guard the most because without it, they cannot break out to a weapon without going through the whole process of enriching uranium.
BURNETT: For everything, right? It's the grail.
HULATA: This is why this is so important, and this is why I think it's worth a while to try to plan this and to see what to do about this, whether or not there is still time to do this. And the operational considerations I don't know.
BURNETT: And enter into this conversation though, Karim, what Fred's describing on the ground obviously, the vast presence of security forces, the massive crowds celebrating the new supreme leader. Obviously, it doesn't reflect what many Iranians think, but it does reflect what the situation is on the ground right now in terms of the -- that there is stability of the state.
And in that context, Trump says tonight about the new supreme leader. "I was disappointed to see their choice." And we're also hearing from a senior Israeli official earlier on CNN saying, we'll have to see if the new supreme leader is a target.
So, you know, what would happen, Karim, if the U.S. and/or Israel takes out the new supreme leader?
KARIM SADJADPOUR, CNN GLOBAL AFFAIRS ANALYST: I think, Erin, this is not one assassination regime. If they do indeed assassinate Mojtaba Khamenei, I think the regime which in my view represents a small minority of Iranian society, but it's a regime which is dug in right now. They believe it's kill or be killed, and they will find a replacement for him.
And I think that, you know on one hand, President Trump, Erin, has to make a very important decision. And that is his goal to only degrade the capabilities of the Iranian regime. Or does he also want to change the character of the Iranian regime?
And I think in Tehran, my view is that this is a regime which is not ready at all to change its character or its identity, its identity being death to America and death to Israel.
BURNETT: Yes. And I think it's important for Fred to talk about that. They were, you know, coming up in his face and saying death to America. You know, look something any of us who have ever reported from Tehran have experienced, right? And that -- that is still happening right now. And Fred experienced it today.
Seth, Trump suggested that U.S. goals in Iran earlier are pretty well complete. And obviously that is contradictory to some of what he said later in his comments but at one point today, he said that. And he also reportedly called it just an excursion. And he emphasized that it was a short time.
And that was, by the way, to an audience of Republicans, which is significant, right? You got cheers for that. They wanted to hear that, he's under pressure.
But the question is, Seth, what has he completed in Iran? He says, I've gotten rid of the entire navy. It's gone. He says he's gotten complete air control. We know that they've -- that Iran's ballistic missile capacity has been depleted to some meaningful extent, even though today we had the busiest couple hours here, Seth, that we have had in quite a few days. So, I think it's actually worth mentioning that.
But has -- what has Trump completed in Iran?
JONES: Well, Aaron, were still in what Carl Von Clausewitz called the "fog of war". So, we don't have a clear sense of what has been destroyed in Iran. But I think it's probably safe to say that the Iran's missile program has been degraded, its drone program, including its Shaheds, have been degraded not eliminated, but degraded.
Some of its core leadership, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard, some key leaders have been killed.
[19:20:07] But I think, you know, when I look at the Iranian regime itself and you start counting the number of Islamic revolutionary guard forces left, the Basij, some of the gendarmerie and paramilitary forces, and then the army. That could be used internally. You're talking about upwards of a million security forces, and that includes some of the intelligence apparatus.
So, there is a lot left in place right now. And I think as, as we've just heard, including by Fred on the ground, this is we're still hearing a regime that is chanting "death to America". So, my general view on this looking forward is that that there's going to be a lot of mowing the grass that's going to have to take place in the near future frankly, the way the Israelis have had to deal with this in Lebanon and in Gaza, with Hamas.
And the U.S. did for years with the Islamic State and al Qaeda. I just don't think we're even close to this being over.
BURNETT: All right. So how do you see this? Because what Seth is saying actually is getting at the heart of where the Israelis have stood all the way along, they wanted regime change. And what Fred is saying on the ground, okay, is not that. And what Seth is talking about from just the math of who's there and who's in place is not that.
So, if Trump does continue to go down the path that he that he went down in some comments today, that he wants to end it, that does not fly with Israel's goals, which were regime change. You got -- you got a new Khamenei. We don't even have to learn a new name.
HULATA: Well, first I think this was also President Trump's objective when we started -- when he started this to have a new regime in Iran. I'm thinking this -- there is an alignment or was an alignment between Israel and the United States. And the question remains whether or not there are conditions for it. And as I think we've been talking throughout the week, the chances of the people to come protest back again in the streets and to push against the regime can only happen when the bombs stop over the major cities in Iran.
I mean, as long as there is like, like Fred is experiencing right now, how could the people come to the streets and protest on the streets of Tehran look like this? Now, as it comes to Israels objectives, I think the operational objectives are very similar. I think also the urge and need and understanding that there needs to be a change in regime in Iran for this to resolve is also in sync.
I think the main question is how much time is still left in the tank of -- and the patience given the oil prices going up and down, as you said before, and all of the pressures coming around. What worries me is that once this kind of talking of starting to say that the United States is losing patience and maybe, I mean, you know, also maybe this will come from Israel, even though I don't think this will happen. The Iranians are listening to that.
And if the Iranians understand that the pressure now shifts from them to the United States, they have no reason to stop firing and they will try to push it so that it will be perceived as if they've won this war. This is the balance that is running right now, and I can understand why President Trump is playing with the words, trying to find the right phrase to say this because its complicated.
BURNETT: Although I will say here, you do feel a fierce force that is on board with this, despite a completely shutdown country essentially, which is very different than what it is in the United States.
I mean, Karim, I guess in Iran, and if Fred is giving the is talking about the people he saw today so they go out in the street en mass. These are supporters of the supreme leader. How much military pain can Iran take? Because they're taking just tonight, the busiest night so far. I think we've said that almost every night and it's been true.
SADJADPOUR: I'm reminded of an observation from Henry Kissinger many years ago, Erin. And he said when conventional powers fight guerrilla fighters, the conventional power, it loses by not winning. And the guerrilla fighters win by not losing.
And so, for the Islamic Republic of Iran, all they're trying to do is survive. If they survive, that's victory for them. And they survive by maintaining the cohesion of their security forces. As of now, they have that.
But I don't believe, Erin that this bias the regime, you know, it's a new lease on life. And definitely when all this is said and done, it will still remain a deeply unpopular state politically, economically socially and Mojtaba Khamenei is now leading a country in which he's simultaneously fighting America, Israel and his own population while living and hiding.
BURNETT: Yeah, and that, of course, let's, I guess, leave it there, where we began part of it, in hiding. We still have not seen him, whether he's injured or not, no one has seen him. And that is important.
Thank you all very much. And our breaking news continues after this. Nick Paton Walsh is here. He is reporting from the other front of this war, constant fire, where he just spent time up by Lebanon, at one point ducking for cover.
[19:25:03]
So, we've got a report there on that now, very active front.
Plus, whiplash. All right. Oil prices today up and down, the war now in its 10th day. We need context. A Pulitzer Prize-winning economist is now sounding the alarm, warning of a potential nightmare scenario. And he is our guest.
And breaking news out of New York, police claim two men who hurled homemade bombs into a crowd in New York City were inspired by ISIS. We have new details on that investigation coming up this hour.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BURNETT: And welcome back to this special edition of OUTFRONT, "The War with Iran". We're live in the Middle East and Tel Aviv tonight with breaking news.
The United States military just says that it has hit more than 5,000 individual targets in Iran since the beginning of the war. That's 5,000 in just these past ten days.
[19:30:00]
That means 2,000 targets have been between today and Friday. So -- and tonight, as Fred reporting on the ground, he says the most intense night of strikes that he's experienced there. U.S. Central Command also says that more than 50 Iranian ships have been damaged or destroyed their numbers of how many are in the navy have shifted over time, but they are now consistent in saying it is fully destroyed.
Nick Paton Walsh is OUTFRONT with me in Tel Aviv.
And, Nick, the other front here is a very significant one, and I know we talk about it, but it is very important you have soldiers here. Ground invasion and an all-out war going on with Hezbollah in Lebanon. So, you went up right along the front line on the border today.
NICK PATON WALSH, CNN CHIEF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY CORRESPONDENT: That's true. And I think it's a sort of a sense of exactly how the unintended consequences, the ancillary parts of this conflict can continue to grow as we get into 9 to 10 days here now, the war between Hezbollah and Israel was a result of Hezbollah saying they would avenge the death of Ayatollah Khamenei, but it is now in full flow, and you get a sense of what this is becoming for Israel now, a really serious issue that it said it will deal with, but is increasingly, I think, potentially finding to be an escalatory conflict.
Here's what we saw along the border.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
WALSH (voice-over): As the war fast spills over and twists, here, Hezbollah rockets meet Israeli air defense. The fight thickening on the northern border Sunday night.
WALSH: We've been hearing that for about an hour now, probably airstrikes over there in southern Lebanon.
WALSH (voice-over): Blasts through the dark. With daylight, it persisted, joined by Apache attack helicopters throwing defensive flares. As Israel said it had overnight led its second targeted raid on the Iranian ally here.
Small arms fire close by. Israel has demanded much of southern Lebanon empty out, but there were no open signs. They were yet here in number enough for a full invasion, instead picking off targets. The goal, to disarm Hezbollah forever, not yet in reach. Their rockets constant.
(EXPLOSIONS) WALSH: Right over our head.
WALSH (voice-over): The house where we took cover had 28 alerts last night.
WALSH: How long is it? About 10 seconds.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: No, immediate.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You need to hear them.
WALSH: Yeah.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: The more I hear the siren, like it's the moment that you need to be inside shelter.
WALSH: Don't you get tired of this?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: We get tired, we don't have any choice.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yeah.
UNIDENNTIFIED FEMALE: It's our home.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
WALSH: Now we understand from my colleagues here that Israel is weighing whether or not it might push deeper into Lebanon to essentially reduce the ability for rockets, missiles like that to harass communities in the border areas. But it's an enormous undertaking, Erin, because they don't clearly have the ground troops that we could see publicly do something like that.
And it's another example of how this conflict between the U.S. Israel and Iran has all these different potential could cause it to spiral or have dynamics that don't let president Trump's off ramp seem so easy
BURNETT: And you see that and then here, as you came back here, we had the busy, you know, the most intense couple hours we've had of air raid sirens, obviously still essentially shut down, right? A country that is completely defined by war right now, completely defined by war, of how long that can be sustained.
Nick Paton Walsh, thank you very much here with me.
And next, oil prices spiking after Iranian oil depots were engulfed in flames. We're now experiencing the biggest oil disruption in civilized history. A world-renowned economist, energy expert Pulitzer Prize winner, OUTFRONT next.
And a CNN investigation. This hour of new video, which appears to confirm that it was an American air strike on an Iranian base next to the school where Iran says at least 168 young children were killed.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:38:44]
BURNETT: And we're back with this special edition of OUTFRONT, "The War with Iran".
Breaking news, the biggest oil disruption in history. And that's what it is. Oil prices have been skyrocketing. The war is disrupting 20 percent of the world's oil supply.
Obviously, for some countries, it's way more than that. President Trump says he knew oil prices would rise when he launched the war and, of course, he says he thought they'd go even higher.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: We're putting an end to all of this threat once and for all and the result will be lower oil prices -- oil and gas prices for American families. I knew oil prices would go up if I did this, and they've gone up probably less than I thought they'd go up.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BURNETT: Of course, oil prices spiked overnight in a sort of epic and unprecedented way. It was panic, and it was in large part due to Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. And both sides -- all sides talking about massive escalation from there.
Hormuz is one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints. We stood along it last summer during the strikes of the U.S. and Iran. One fifth of the world's oil shipments go ugh there, and it is threatening to upend the global economy.
Talking to shippers, they have -- you know, some of them I've talked to, you know, they've got ships now that have been stuck since the very beginning of this, right?
[19:40:05]
So, you're starting to get to a week or two. They start to have questions about gasoline supply to fire up the ships and food. Trump is telling CBS that he's, quote, thinking of taking over the Strait of Hormuz. He did not provide any detail on what such a thing would actually require OUTFRONT.
Now, Daniel Yergin, he is a world-renowned expert on oil and economics, Pulitzer Prize winner for his work on this, which is about oil and, of course, about the economies and the wars that have gone along with it.
And, Dan, oil prices, I mean, the rise overnight was unbelievable. And anybody who saw it had to feel deeply unsettled. And the images that we were seeing in Tehran were part of the reason why the oil depots, the storage facilities engulfed by flames, and then the Qatar energy ministry minister, you know, had said even before that that the war could bring down the economies of the world. The IMF, they've warned that its time to start thinking of what they call the unthinkable, which is a really stunning thing to say. I mean, do you think that these descriptions are accurate?
DANIEL YERGIN, VICE CHAIRMAN, S&P GLOBAL: Well, I think that the risk has been very high, Erin, and that, as you said, the prices were spiking because it was concerned not only about the strait of Hormuz being closed, but the other thing that needed to be watched was what would happen to all that infrastructure, all that equipment, all those facilities along the Arabian side of the Gulf and whether they would be hurt and damaged. And it was those two things coming together that were really sending oil prices, as you said, streaking towards $120 a barrel and perhaps higher until they change directions today.
BURNETT: And, you know change direction today, in part, President Trump said, oh, the goals were basically met. And he said that right before markets closed. So, prices went down. Then when he came in his press conference and was much more bellicose, prices started to go back up again.
And this is the world that we're living in. I know dan, when you look at history and history goes back to wars in the Middle East, it goes into crises in the Suez you say that were not even in a nightmare scenario yet. What is a nightmare scenario from here?
YERGIN: A nightmare scenario would be that the Strait of Hormuz remains more or less closed, that there is really damage to these incredibly important facilities along the Gulf Coast. And that you have an extended outage. And at that point you have not only prices going higher, this is part of the nightmare -- you have financial markets hit. We saw some sense of that over the last few days. And, of course, the world plummeted into an economic recession.
That's the nightmare scenario that has people. And I think that's what the IMF is referring to if this goes on for a long period of time.
BURNETT: The unthinkable. And I think we all are staring at the abyss of the unthinkable because so many things could happen now that nobody would ever want to happen, but could happen. When it comes to what this means for gas prices in the United States -- I mean, obviously, it takes a while to have the oil impacted by all of this, right? Flow through the system. But gas prices at the pump nonetheless start to go up pretty much immediately, and they're up 50 cents in just over the past week.
Where do you see this going?
YERGIN: Well, I think if prices ease off, then we'll see the prices. You know the prices come down its about two and a half cents for every dollar that barrel goes up in costs, but I think that even where we are, prices are today, you know, for world oil than they were before the military buildup started in late January.
So, prices are still, you know, elevated. They're just not as high as what people were looking at when really panic was taking over the market, particularly because 80 percent of the oil that comes out of the Strait of Hormuz goes to Asia, 90 percent of gas. And you're really seeing starting to see panicking, buying of supplies as people were looking at shortages, physical shortages.
BURNETT: Yeah. I mean the crises that you see in places, whether it's Japan or Korea and, of course, China now becoming so central in all of this as well.
Dan Yergin, I appreciate your time. Thank you so much for being with us.
And we have an investigation after this. CNN appears to confirm who really was behind the strike on that Iranian base next to a children's school. At least 168 children were killed, according to Iranian state media. And we have all seen the absolutely unspeakable images of that.
President Trump tonight says the U.S. is now tracking sleeper cells inside the United States. Meantime, he says it may have been activated by Iran.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:48:22]
BURNETT: And welcome back to this special edition of OUTFRONT, "The War with Iran" as we are live in Tel Aviv with breaking news right now. President Trump is raising doubts about who is behind an attack on an Iranian base that was at a children's school next to it, at least 168 kids and 14 teachers were killed. The exact numbers are, according to Iranian state media. The images though, the reality, horrific.
Here's what Trump told our Manu Raju moments ago.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: I will say that the tomahawk, which is one of the most powerful weapons around, is used by, you know, sold and used by other countries. You know that. And whether it's Iran -- who also has some tomahawks, they wish they had more, but whether it's Iran or somebody else, the fact that tomahawk, a tomahawk is very generic, it's sold to other countries. But that's being investigated.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BURNETT: But as our Isobel Yeung reports in the CNN investigation, neither Israel or Iran uses tomahawk missiles according to experts.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
ISOBEL YEUNG, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): This is the moment a missile slammed into an Iranian base in Minab, a city in southern Iran just over a week ago in this freeze frame, you can see it clearly. Weapons experts tell CNN the wings and tail are consistent with a Tomahawk missile. This new video is the clearest evidence yet that suggests it was the United States that struck an elementary school next to that Revolutionary Guard's base, killing scores of students.
The U.S. has been firing those Tomahawk missiles at Iran from ships and submarines for more than a week now.
[19:50:00]
Israel doesn't use them, experts tell us.
REPORTER: Mr. President, did the United States bomb a girls' elementary school in southern Iran on the first day of the war, killing hundreds --
TRUMP: No, in my opinion, based on what I've seen, that was done by Iran.
REPORTER: Is that true, Mr. Hegseth? It was Iran who did that?
HEGSETH: We're certainly investigating it.
YEUNG (voice-over): Iran also doesn't use tomahawk missiles. And using satellite images, it's clear the school was struck nearly simultaneously with strikes on an adjacent Revolutionary Guards base. That suggests precision targeting.
CNN geolocated this video. We think this missile struck the military base, not the school. You can see that other buildings in the direction of the school had just been struck when this was filmed.
Isobel Yeung, CNN, London.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BURNETT: All right. OUTFRONT now, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, Congressman Jim Himes, state of Connecticut.
Congressman, I appreciate your time.
So, you know, you see this reporting the clearest evidence yet that suggests, it was a U.S. tomahawk, a missile that struck that base by the elementary school. And, of course, this adds to CNN's reporting, "New York Times" reporting. I mean incredible work has been done on this. And our investigative unit and others Trump is still raising doubts, right? Pointing the finger at Iran and other countries as if possibly it could have been a mistake, an Iranian missile or an Iranian misfire. Who knows exactly what he's trying to say?
What are you learning?
REP. JIM HIMES (D-CT): Well, you know, Erin, it certainly does not look good, right? I mean, the president's statement that other countries have tomahawks. That might be true if you're talking about the United Kingdom or something, but the Iranians do not have tomahawks. Israel does not have tomahawks.
By the way, this administration wouldn't even provide tomahawks to Ukraine. So no, they are not a generic weapon. And, you know, the idea that at the very moment in time when we're striking lots of other targets in the vicinity that this one just happened to not be a U.S. munition is -- is not believable. I also don't know if you noticed, but when the president on Air Force
One turned to Mr. Hegseth, as he said, Mr. Hegseth did not say no, sir, that was not us, which is what Trump had said. He said it's under investigation. Now, whether that investigation will ever be completed, that's a different question.
BURNETT: Yeah, but I did I did think his answer was actually important because he did not go along with the president. And it was notable given the position he's in.
The president also talked about Iran activating so-called sleeper cells in the United States, Congressman, which is obviously a deeply concerning thing. If true. He did talk about it specifically. I'll play that part.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REPORTER: Has Iran activated any sleeper cells inside the U.S.? There's reports that they have pressed that trigger button to activate those cells, at least abroad.
TRUMP: Well, we've been -- they've been trying for a long time. We've been very much on top of it.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BURNETT: Congressman, is there any evidence do you have a real concern about this that there's such a thing as sleeper cells that literally could be triggered by Tehran?
HIMES: Yeah, well, there's no question that over a long period of time, the Republican Guard and in particular the Quds Force of the Republican guard has had units whose sole purpose is to try to place in foreign countries, in the region, in Europe, and maybe even the United States people or groups of people who could work there will. You know, the president has made repeated references to Iran trying to assassinate him. You know, this is done not because there are formal cells, but because they have networks and connections.
And so, yes, this is a very real danger and one of those things that you take into account when you take the decision to attack Iran, you know, they -- they know that they do not have the missile. The military capability to, you know, sink one of our carriers or whatnot. So, instead, what they're going to rely on is a great deal of asymmetric capability. And that means potentially terrorism. It means closing the Straits of Hormuz with very low tech weapons, small boats, that sort of thing. So, you know, yeah, this is a very real danger.
BURNETT: Yeah, it is and I'll say in the Straits of Hormuz, oil tankers companies are very worried that what they're saying is that Iran has the ability to use small boats and basically attach bombs to the hulls. So, it's a deep concern there. It's part of the reason no one is transiting it are very, very few ships are.
I want to ask you about the discussions within the Trump administration, Congressman, about deploying those elite military units to get the uranium in Iran. That's new reporting by our Natasha Bertrand. And she says this would require a major ground presence.
Former chief nuclear inspector for the IAEA, Robert Kelly, called a suicide mission talking to us earlier, he did not think it had a high chance of success. Is this potential operation as you see it realistic?
HIMES: Yeah, I don't think so, Erin, based on what I know. And again, this is just one of the many things that President Trump says.
[19:55:02]
And, you know, I just don't know where it comes from.
Here's what I can tell you. You know, in June of last year when the president supposedly obliterated through the use of you know, the bunker busters down tunnels into Fordow, which is one of the storage and refinement, assets that the Iranians have and in other places, Isfahan most notably, we created a huge amount of damage and our belief is that underneath that damage is uranium. Uranium doesn't all of a sudden magically disappear. It can be spread around, it can be sealed off by lots of rubble.
So, think about this, you know, how are you going to put teams in that are going to both clear rubble, remove stuff while they're not getting shot at? Not -- not very likely. That just does not strike me as a -- as a realistic mission. No matter how good the military is.
BURNETT: Congressman Himes, we appreciate your time and thank you so much.
And next, authorities say that the two men who threw explosive devices into a crowd in New York city were inspired by ISIS. We'll be back with new details.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BURNETT: Welcome back to a special edition of OUTFRONT, "The War with Iran".
And as we follow the fighting across the Middle East, we also have breaking news in the United States, where two men are now facing charges of using a weapon of mass destruction after allegedly throwing homemade IEDs during an anti-Islam protest outside Gracie Mansion.
Now that is where the mayor of New York City, Zohran Mamdani lives. According to federal prosecutors, both men said they were inspired by ISIS when they were arrested. One of the suspects reportedly saying that he wanted to carry out an attack bigger than the Boston bombing. Of course, you remember the Tsarnaev brothers with so much death and destruction. Mamdani called it a heinous act of terrorism.
Thank you so much for joining us here. Our breaking coverage will continue, of course, here tomorrow.
And now, we hand it off to "AC360", which starts now.
