Return to Transcripts main page
Erin Burnett Outfront
A Special Edition Of OutFront, "Election Night In America". Aired 7-8p ET
Aired May 19, 2026 - 19:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[19:00:31]
ERIN BURNETT, CNN HOST: OUTFRONT next:
The breaking news, the final polls just closing in the biggest test yet of Trump's revenge tour. The president aiming to take down Republican tom Massie in Kentucky. And the results are coming in this hour. John King is here to break it all down.
Plus, polls closing in Georgia this hour. Did the Republicans flub their best chance of flipping a Senate seat there?
And a major endorsement tonight, upending a crucial race.
It is a special edition of OUTFRONT, "Election Night in America". Let's go OUTFRONT.
(MUSIC)
BURNETT: And good evening. I'm Erin Burnett, and welcome to this special edition of OUTFRONT election night in America.
Well, there are six states altogether holding elections tonight with control of congress ultimately at stake.
All right. So, you can see them all lighting up on your map there. But let's start right now. All eyes on the biggest race of the night that's in Kentucky. Final polls are just closing.
President Trump is determined to take out the Republican Thomas Massie there. Now this has become the single most expensive primary race in history. $33 million spent over the past few months.
Now, just to be clear, this race should have cost exactly $0 because Massie is a Republican, he votes overwhelmingly with Trump. He's an incumbent. Right? All of the reasons.
But Trump turned on Massie after Massie fought for the release of the Epstein files. That was the break. And now here we are, $33 million into unseating him. The first results from that crucial race are just starting to come in as polls are all closed.
So we're bringing this to you as we get it. As you can see right now these are just results coming in here all in. You can see right now you're just under 7,300 or 7,400 or so votes. So we're just starting to get early results right now.
Thomas Massie is down. But this is so early on 6 percent reporting. Can't read anything into it right now. But we'll see in these next few moments if we are able to make a call as those numbers come in, were going to keep showing you these boards as we also follow crucial races in Georgia, where polls have also just closed. Georgia Republicans voting on the nominee who will take on the vulnerable Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff this November.
Now, this is crucial for Democrats. They have to hold on to the seat if they want to win the Senate. And there is no clear Republican front runner on this, which means the race could lead to a runoff next month. And that gives Ossoff a major advantage.
So, this one is another crucial to watch. Also, Pennsylvania polls closing soon there tonight. That is where Democrats think they have one of the best chances in the country to flip a seat in November. They are focused on taking out Congressman Ryan MacKenzie, a vulnerable Republican. He narrowly won in 2024.
And Democrats tonight are choosing the candidate that is going to go against MacKenzie.
John King is standing by at the magic wall. He's going to be with us throughout this hour. All these numbers coming in.
And John, crucial contest. We're going through some of them.
Van, S.E., Astead, Paul are also with me all hour. And we also have Jeff Zeleny with us as well OUTFRONT at Massie headquarters in Hebron, Kentucky.
So, let's start with you on the ground, because numbers are starting to come in so early, 6 percent reporting. But what are you learning there? What is the feel in that room? That's for Thomas Massie.
JEFF ZELENY, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL AFFAIRS CORRESPONDENT: Well, Erin, as you can see, supporters of congressman Massie have started filling this room and it's going to be a party. But what kind of party? Of course, we do not know until more votes come in. I mean, this has been an extraordinary campaign, a bruising campaign.
But when you think about the $32 million, we talk about money in politics a lot. This is extraordinary. This is the kind of thing where voters were voting today telling me they would get six to eight pieces of mail from the campaign every single day in their mailbox. They just hear and see so many ads.
So, the reality is, how does that sort of affect voters' minds? There's a sense of exhaustion, there's no doubt about it. But it's also clear that President Trump wants to make Massie part of this retribution. Massie told me last evening. He said, look, this retribution tour, I did not vote to impeach you.
I can tell you, though, talking to voters today, all day long, they had their own issues in mind, why they were making their choices. And President Trump was not always guiding them.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOE HICKS, KENTUCKY REPUBLICAN VOTER: I like Massie, I know there's a lot of pressure to vote for Ed, but I don't know. I feel like I feel like Massie is more for the Constitution. So that's who I'm going with.
LARRY BRANDSTETTER, KENTUCKY REPUBLICAN VOTER: I support the president, but I would have voted for Ed Gallrein either way because of his policies.
[19:05:01]
ZELENY: Why did you vote for Thomas Massie?
ROB BARKLEY, KENTUCKY REPUBLICAN VOTER: I voted because he's pretty much against -- he's on the Republican side. So, he does have a conservative mindset, but he's not as far leaning right as the Trump politics and basically a voting against Trump. Honestly.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
ZELENY: And President Trump, of course, was fixated on this all day long at the White House, talking again about Thomas Massie. He said he is a Democrat.
Well, of course, that is not true. He's a Republican. But I did run into several Democrats here who said they would be happy to vote for him if they could, to send Trump a message, but they cannot. This is a closed Republican primary. Only Republican registered voters that had to be registered at the end of last year as Republicans could vote in this race.
That is a very important thing to keep in mind here as we watch these votes come in. So basically, it is going to boil down, after all of these millions and millions of dollars to the loyalty toward President Trump and people deciding if they still want to follow him or follow their own congressman who they've sent back to office seven consecutive times -- Erin.
BURNETT: It's incredible, right? The true incumbent.
All right. Thank you very much, Jeff Zeleny, and we'll be going back to Jeff, of course, as these numbers come in through this hour. Let's go to John King now at the magic wall OUTFRONT.
And John, the last polls in Kentucky are closed, right? So now the numbers are in. It's when we're going to be able to make a call here. And Congressman Thomas Massie is in the fight of his life. And the fight is against Donald Trump. I mean, what are you seeing?
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: He is in the fight of his life against the Republican president of the United States and a man, Erin, who has proven I'm just going to take this out because I'm getting a little mixed, minus a man who has proven just this weekend in Louisiana, when Senator Bill Cassidy lost his job, a few weeks ago back in Indiana, when five of the seven state senators he targeted lost their jobs in Republican primaries.
So, here's what's happening right here with Thomas Massie. I'm going to trust that maybe this is fixed and put it back in. We're at 7 percent right now, so we have a long way to go, Erin. But where are we looking? Where are we looking here in the key areas here?
Number one, right here, three counties right here just south of Cincinnati. These are Cincinnati suburbs, essentially, Ohio, Cincinnati, Ohio, suburbs in northern Kentucky. Then over here just northeast of Louisville, these are the most populous counties in the state. So, we do this every election night. Where's the math? Where can you get the most votes? That's what's going to happen there. So, we'll watch that play out there. And then another big thing we'll look at is out here and I'll break this one down in a minute. This is Lewis County. This is where Tom Massie served as a county judge before he came to congress. It's also a county where Donald Trump in 2024, Erin, got 87 percent of the vote.
So, there's your rural test out here in Trump. This is more of your suburban test right here. I just want to go back. Let's just blank this out and take a look. Again. You come here. We have no votes out here right now. If Tom Massie loses his home county, can he win the district primary? Maybe.
But that's the biggest test, right? These are the people who know him best. And where Trump got 87 percent. You talk about a president versus a congressman. That's a big deal right there.
And if you want to come in here, let's see where we do have votes in the Cincinnati suburbs. It's 23 percent. We have a ways to go. If I'm in the Massie campaign headquarters, though, this does trouble me because this is where you need to win. This is, number one, the most populated area. Number two, these are more affluent, especially up close. The close in suburbs here, more rural down here.
But if you the close in suburbs, they're more affluent suburban Ohio, outside of Cincinnati. Yes, they vote for Donald Trump in a general election. But you know this as well as I do, Erin. And these are some of the voters who really don't like how Donald Trump does his business, who don't like Trump on some character issues. They like, like his tax policies. They might like other policies, but they don't really like how he conducts himself.
Those are the kind of voters Tom Massie needs, that voters who would say, you know what? We like that he stands up to Trump every now and then. We like that he's a little different. We like that he's not afraid to be an individual.
First votes have just come in over here in Boone County. And again, 36 percent. The challengers ahead in a place where tom Massie needs to win because that's where the most people live. It's -- we're not done. They could be from down here. I can't do precinct level at the magic wall. So, they could be from the more rural areas down here. So, we have to wait to see as it fills up. But you got 36 percent
there, 23 percent there. That does not look good if you are. And then let's go over here again.
I said the Louisville, northeast Louisville suburbs, only 2 percent. But the challenger on top there as well. So, the early look, Erin, in the magic wall as you start to fill in the numbers is not good. I want to emphasize the early part early, early, early.
But you're looking at this right now. What we need to see here is out here. This is a small county down here. I just tap on it to check on it. Where 24 percent of the vote in Spencer County, much more rural, much more Trumpy.
If this is -- the question, is pretty simple. Are MAGA voters following Trump, or are MAGA voters trusting their local congressman at the moment? Here, you would see that mega voters are listening to the president who says, it's time for a new voice.
But we still have -- still a ways to go. The early results, though, don't look right for Mr. Massie, but that's why we count.
BURNETT: Well, right. I mean, I guess when you're talking about where Massie would need to make the inroads, I mean, you're talking about where the math is, right? And we don't know, to your point, whether it's at the southern end, the precinct level, the north northern end of where those results are coming in, but those troubling areas.
[19:10:03]
KING: Right there, right, right there, the most populous centers. And so, you know, this is what you do, right? And so when you're in the live setting like this, you're just trying to see -- you know, you keep, you keep checking in, right? Twenty-three percent, you know, 36 percent. But if you leave it out here, you know, if the big number, the overall district number will change. If you start to see more coming in.
And again, it's only 13 percent, but this is -- everybody watching. Everyone has a sport, right? Everyone has something they're interested in. You don't want to be down 14. It's the early innings first quarter.
However, you want to describe it, whatever sport you like or play, you never want to be behind. You certainly don't want to be behind by that. But there's a lot left to go.
BURNETT: All right, John King, thank you very much. So, we're going to be going back to John King as we get more.
Everyone's here with me.
S.E., you look at those numbers and it's early. So we just don't know, your overall number, 6 percent. But there are certain areas where he needs to -- even if in his home county, he does better than expected, right? Trump won that by 87 percent, right. You got to run it up in the population centers.
S.E. CUPP, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Yeah. I'm not -- I'm not in the prediction business anymore. But Massie's got an uphill battle only because Trump's been on him for like all year. It's a little different than the, than the Texas race where Trump literally waited until today to make an endorsement between the two -- the two Republicans running in that primary for Senate.
Trump's been all over tom Massie. Trump's been making tom Massie a target. He's been making him a household name at a time when Tom Massie should be the incumbent. Trump is also forcing Republicans to spend a ton of money, but I heard one strategist say, well, Gallrein has Trump, Massie has incumbency.
These are two competing forces. We'll have to see which wins out. Trump's been kind of on a roll when it comes to his throwing his weight around in these primaries. So I think I think tom Massie is against the wall tonight. But we'll see
VAN JONES, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: Look, this is the pettiest president in the history of presidency. Why are we even doing this? The reason we're doing this is because Donald Trump can't have a single person in his party disagree with him on anything.
So, you have somebody who is as red, a Republican who can possibly be. He made one mistake. He says, I think the Epstein files should be taken seriously. And for that.
BURNETT: That is the reason, right?
JONES: That's it. That's literally.
BURNETT: People talk about the Big, Beautiful Bill and the Iran war. But Trump had turned on him long before that. Epstein. It was Epstein.
JONES: And so -- and so this is literally this is -- this -- h is petty white. He is petty wop. He is the most petty president in the history of presidencies to take this guy out over something like this.
BURNETT: Thirty-two million bucks.
PAUL RIECKHOFF, FOUNDER & CEO, INDEPENDENT VETERANS OF AMERICA: Yeah. He's also winning. I mean, he's on a roll. I think that's right. What's S.E. said is right.
I mean, he won in Indiana. He punished Cassidy, and now he wants to make the best example possible of Massie, flex his strength, show he's got total control over the Republican Party.
And I think its also just a sad day for America, because as we look at these primaries, so many of them are closed 3.5 or so million independents are completely blocked out of this process. They have no vote. So, this this whole game is stacked toward Trump because independents can't vote. People can't register late and vote.
BURNETT: People identify as independents than Republicans or Democrats, honestly. Right. This is amazing. But go ahead, Astead.
ASTEAD HERNDON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: I mean, I just think when a lot of people ask themselves, why hasn't Trump's declining, declining poll numbers resulted in a loss of political power or a loss of hold on the Republican Party? It's because of nights like tonight, the closed primary system gives Donald Trump more power. And he, over the course of not just this term, but the term before has successfully used that power to transform Republican Party. We can talk about the recent examples. We can talk about the Republicans who voted against him in January 6th, Jeff Flake and all those in the past. He's done this consistently to retain the party in his image.
But it's not just Massie's opposition against Trump that's made this so expensive. I mean, the top house primaries that are most expensive ever are this one. Jamaal Bowman in New York, Cori Bush in Missouri -- those are all people who spoke out against AIPAC funding. That's also a huge issue in this race, even beyond the question of Donald Trump.
And so I think we should see this as an answer sometimes to people ask, is this a cult to personality or is America -- is MAGA something that's based off of kind of America first ideals? Massie embodies those America first ideals, and that's not enough because following Donald Trump in lockstep is the only litmus test that matters.
BURNETT: You know, Massie has said obviously, he's been unafraid to take on Trump on these issues. So I'm not saying that he's trying to dodge taking on Trump, but you mentioned AIPAC, of course, American Israeli super PAC, Israeli --
CUPP: Yeah.
BURNETT: And today, Massie said many people are smart enough to understand that this is Israel trying to buy an election. He said this on fox news. Miriam Adelson has spent so much money on my election. They're going to have to scale down that ballroom that she was paying for. And she was born in Israel.
CUPP: Yeah.
BURNETT: That's the rhetoric today from Massie.
CUPP: This is an experiment that, people like Massie and Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly, they're trying this out. And I think they each have their reasons. I think they're looking over at the left and seeing some of the division in the country over the issue of Gaza.
[19:15:05]
I think it's much more prominent and fracturing on the left than it is on the right.
But they're looking at that. I think some people, like Tucker Carlson is trying to find a Trump alternative lane, because I think he's going to run for president. I think that's what that's all about. But they are trying out this new anti-Israel message that is definitely new for like movement conservatism. And it's definitely counter to what Trump is doing.
I don't know that that will be as successful as it has been on the left for progressives. They found a real home and constituency for that anti-Israel message. They haven't found it yet on the right. That's what Tucker's project is.
And I think Thomas Massie, Marjorie Taylor Greene, these sort of Trump apostates are looking to that particular place for an area that they could distinguish themselves.
BURNETT: All right. So, let's --as I said, there's so many races going here. I want to make a breaking news here. We do have a projection to make in Kentucky, and we can now project that Andy Barr will win the Republican primary for the Senate in Kentucky.
Now, this one is important because Trump had endorsed Andy Barr. This is Mitch McConnell's seat that he's retiring from. And again, Van, this is the Trump supported candidate. We'll see what happens in Texas tonight, right, with that very late jump in against Cornyn for Paxton by Trump. But this is another victory for Trump here.
JONES: Yeah. And you know but Barr was particularly adept at keeping the McConnell people with him. That was the thing that I thought was interesting that he can actually he's a very good politician because in some people wanted to make it be kind of McConnell, the old the establishment versus Trump. He split the baby and was able to pull it off.
And so, yes, it's a big win for Trump, but also its a win for Trump, for somebody who also showed real respect, as much respect as you can to McConnell, in a state where McConnell is no longer popular.
BURNETT: And we've got obviously lots of results here, in just a few minutes, we're going to be going through what we're seeing coming in with numbers coming in in Georgia and Pennsylvania, which are crucial races as well, Paul. But you know, the upshot of this, okay, Trump was successful over the weekend in getting rid of Senator Bill Cassidy. Okay.
So, he -- he got -- he got rid of him. But here's the thing: Cassidy doesn't go away yet, right? He's defeated, but he's still there.
And it just -- we just found out that tonight, he's changed his vote. And he voted with Democrats, on the measure to force Trump to end the Iran war.
So -- so, Trump's got a problem now.
RIECKHOFF: Yeah.
BURNETT: And it is a problem that is a result of his own success.
RIECKHOFF: He's got a big problem. The war in Iran is almost overwhelmingly unpopular. And it's continuing to drop. And I think that's what other folks are seeing, whether it's Massie or it's Marjorie Taylor Greene, they're recognizing that America is sick of foreign intervention and they're sick of foreign wars, they're sick of foreign spending. And that spans from Israel all the way to Iran.
That is a populist message. Now, Israels popularity has fallen right alongside the Iran war, and that's become a problem for Trump. He went all in on Massie, to the point where he sent the secretary of defense in there, right?
Pete Hegseth was campaigning against Massie --
BURNETT: On the eve of the vote.
RIECKHOFF: And I just want to talk about how absolutely unacceptable, unprecedented and overly political that is. That is a dangerous line to cross. It shows how Trump is willing to go all in and blow apart every norm just to win and ensure loyalty. And that's what he's going to continue to do.
JONES: But you're saying that as a veteran, is that what --
RIECKHOFF: I'm saying that as an American. I mean, you don't send your secretary of defense to campaign against your political enemies. Pete Hegseth should be fighting our foreign enemies. He should be worried about Iran, not tom Massie. This is a weaponization of the entire Defense Department and the narrative nationally, which is absolutely out of bounds and very, very dangerous.
HERNDON: You know, something on kind of the Cassidy switching as well. I mean, I think that in some ways we can explain the political incentives. We know that that now frees him to kind of act on this kind of populist sentiment. But it's the exact type of thing that I think folks recognize that drives their sickness with politicians, right?
Like this is a electoral decision that was already, I think, for a lot of people, just shows the fecklessness of a lot of these sort of leaders that when Donald Trump can no longer hold it on to you, then you're kind of empowered to act on something to then you're not there to act. So, I'm saying in some ways, you know, I mean, I mean, kudos for maybe Cassidy for reflecting what we know is a true sentiment among Republicans. But I think it's really a story about the cowardice of congress largely, and how gerrymandering has structurally built in their ability to not lead.
CUPP: I think that's a really important point. And I think a lot of voters are going to see it that way. But also, just on the math, it is really fun to imagine a Cassidy or a Cornyn who will also win or lose, be around for the year, deciding to really kind of mess with Trump for the year. On things like the ballroom funding, war funding, judicial and cabinet appointments. I mean, you're right about the sort of, you know, the cravenness of it, of it, but I -- you know --
HERNDON: I hear you, I hear you.
CUPP: -- around and find out when you go --
RIECKHOFF: Politicians being crazy isn't necessarily breaking news. But there's another -- there's another massive open space too, which is underserved, which is the angry middle, right? The 45 percent of America that's unaffiliated and independent, millions that can't vote in these primaries are fed up with all.
The question is, does Massie leave the party? Does someone like Don Bacon leave the party? Does someone on the left like Jared Golden leave the party?
[19:20:02]
Because there is a huge middle that is longing for people to run against both parties, and the broken primary system, which accelerates, I think, 90 percent of congressional campaigns are over after the primary, 80 percent of senate campaigns. So, most of the state in Kentucky didn't even vote. And they have a new congressman, potentially that they had no say in. That's broken. And tonight is really a glaring example of how broken our electoral system is.
BURNETT: And we'll see here as these numbers come in in Kentucky, of course, also Georgia, Texas.
And next, our breaking news coverage of all of this continues here. I'm going to speak to the former Republican lieutenant governor, Geoff Duncan of Georgia, because guess what? To your point, he's now running as a Democrat to be Georgia's next governor. So how is he feeling? We'll check the numbers on that race.
Plus, Trump weighing in on the Texas senate race, making that major endorsement. So is the upshot here helping Democrats because you know who's running there is James Talarico.
And we are getting more results out of Kentucky where Thomas Massie is fighting and he is fighting right now. These numbers are just coming in. Those early numbers. We'll see what happens here as we start to get some really big numbers coming in in those suburbs in more full. We'll bring them to you next
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:25:33]
BURNETT: All right, more breaking news polls closing just a few moments ago in Georgia. And Georgia. Tonight is home to one of the biggest races in the country. And the race there could decide which party controls the Senate. So, let's look at the first numbers early tonight. A crowded field of Republicans. So, it's been rather chaotic. But you can see they're all running for the right to challenge Jon Ossoff, who is the most vulnerable Democratic senator on the ballot, a seat that Democrats must hold on to if they have any hopes of winning the Senate.
Now, the states Republican governor, though, is popular. Governor Brian Kemp. He is seen as the party's best hope to flip the seat. He took a pass on running in the race.
Now, there's this result. It became chaotic. No clear front runner, the race expected to head to a runoff next month, which would give Ossoff even more free air to duke it out.
So, Arlette Saenz is OUTFRONT in Atlanta here to begin our coverage of Derek Dooley's headquarters.
And, Arlette, the senate really could come down to Georgia. So, what we're seeing tonight is absolutely crucial for these midterms and the outcome there.
Did Republicans, by having this crowded, chaotic field hurt their chances at flipping a Senate seat?
ARLETTE SAENZ, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Erin, some Republicans are worrying that that is actually the case here in Georgia with this fractured and drawn out primary GOP strategist I've spoken to have become more worried that it could complicate their chances of flipping this state red in November.
Now, Senator Jon Ossoff is the only Democratic senator up for reelection in a state won by President Donald Trump in 2024. Part of what makes him the most vulnerable Democratic senator in this year's midterm elections. But Republicans here have been unable to coalesce around a candidate, a field that includes Derek Dooley, a former football coach and two U.S. congressman, Buddy Carter and Mike Collins, who was leading the field heading into tonight.
Now, just a month ago, over half of likely Republican primary voters here in the state were undecided, leaving a large swath of voters up for grabs. But while Republicans have been duking it out in this primary, Senator Ossoff has been in general election mode. He is one of the party's strongest fundraisers and has amassed a war chest of $32 million that he can deploy in that November election. This is really leaving Republicans playing catch up heading into that matchup.
Now Georgia is part of the reason why Democrats are becoming more bullish about their potential to retake the Senate majority in November. But here in Georgia, Republicans won't be settling -- it's likely that Republicans won't be settling on their nominee tonight. The expectation is that this likely will head to a runoff if no candidate can secure more than 50 percent of the vote tonight, which means they would be extending this GOP brawl for another four weeks.
BURNETT: For a whole another month.
Okay. All right, Arlette, thank you very much.
And as promised, now I want to go OUTFRONT to Geoff Duncan. He's running as a Democrat in the race for Georgia governor.
Now, anyone watching this show will remember Duncan. He was -- obviously has been on CNN many times. He was the former Republican lieutenant governor under Governor Kemp. And Duncan stood up to Trump's lies of the 2020 election was stolen.
Now, Geoff, you are now running as a Democrat. So just people say, okay, look, lieutenant governor. And at that time, popular Republican administration, all of a sudden, now a Democrat. How much does President Trump have to do with your decision to switch parties?
GEOFF DUNCAN (D), GEORGIA GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE: It's certainly part of it. I mean, the sitting president trying to steal an election as a statewide elected official, like I was, certainly is part of it. But I think it's the toxic, corrosive leadership style that spread like an infection across all Republicans in all circles. It's really just been an unfortunate series of missteps by them.
And I think as I travel around the state running for governor as a proud Democrat, folks are wanting to talk about issues that Donald Trump and other Republicans aren't talking about. The affordability crisis, the health care crisis, and yes, the Donald Trump crisis, which even Republicans agree is a crisis at this point.
BURNETT: So, you're one of the main Democratic candidates for governor in Georgia. Obviously, it's a very crowded field. Weve just got early numbers coming in. Obviously, Keisha Lance Bottoms is way ahead on these early numbers, 66 percent. You're on the board there.
Trump has called you out as a failed former lieutenant governor. He's called you a total lightweight. He's called you a total loser, all of which is obviously consistent with things, words he uses to describe opponents or people who've challenged him.
[19:30:00]
Has that helped you out at all in this race?
DUNCAN: Yeah. Everywhere I go, I get pats on the back. Thanks for your courage to stand up to Donald Trump. And the reality is, almost everybody that I meet would have done exactly the same thing. Most people don't wake up wanting to tell bold faced lies about an election, or try to steal an election, or be willing to embrace conspiracy theories that make no sense.
And so that's certainly been part of the story. But I think it's also about we all need to have more political courage in this tough moment. I mean, Donald Trump is the worst decision this country has ever made. And even Republicans are figuring that out firsthand.
And so, we've got to have honest umpires that show up and be able to call balls and strikes, right? Look, in Georgia, expanding Medicaid is a must. Republicans have lost the narrative. I was on the other side of this argument for a number of years, and I was wrong.
The same with affordability crisis. We can no longer demonize poverty. We've got to figure out ways and solutions to wrap our hands around folks that are in need of help. And the list goes on and on and on. Look, Donald Trump is not making a decision that helps a single Georgian, no matter what your political party is.
BURNETT: All right. Geoff, stay with me, if you will. I'm here at our table with a lot of people that you know.
And, S.E., can I just start with you with Geoff talking about why he switched parties? Okay. And I think it's interesting the examples he's giving, he's talking about Medicaid and he's talking about affordability, and he's talking about not demonizing poverty, but also talking about Donald Trump.
You're also a former Republican, but unlike Duncan, you haven't gone -- you haven't gone over to the other side.
HUNT: Right.
BURNETT: Okay. So --
(LAUGHTER)
JONES: Sorry. Go ahead.
RIECKHOFF: She won't Van.
CUPP: Right. That's true.
Listen, Geoff is great and I love the way that Geoff has stood up to Trump and his party. I've done the same. I think there are sort of two calculations here. I think jeff just alluded to the fact that he now thinks of his former positions as wrong. He just said that I don't want to put words in his mouth and maybe not about every position.
But the other -- you know, I left the party because it stopped being conservative and I'm still conservative. I don't see conservatism being mouthpiece anywhere. So, my feelings about limited government deregulation, protectionism, lowering the debt and the deficit, strong national defense, taxes, none of that's changed. Therefore, I won't go and become a Democrat.
But I understand -- I think this goes to the brokenness of politics. You can't run and win as an independent. It's really hard to do. And we can lament that. And that might not always be the case, but you've kind of got to pick a party.
But in that case, it says to me, what are the parties even mean then? What's the point of them? Unless they're just fundraising machines? Because if I can say, well, I'm not a Republican, I'll just jump over here. And I don't believe in any of the things that I believed in anymore. What is the point of the parties?
And I think a lot of voters actually feel that way. What's the point of them? What are they doing?
And we've seen enough races. I think Mamdani was one where the parties were irrelevant. Democrats, the Democratic Party didn't even endorse Mamdani when he was the nominee. Chuck Schumer never endorsed him. He won --
BURNETT: They wanted Cuomo.
CUPP: -- without the party. Right.
You're seeing that happen in Maine. The parties picked Janet Mills. She didn't work out. I just think you're sort of -- there's Trump. He's the party. And
Democrats are kind of trying to figure out what -- what is our part? What's the point of our party?
This is not an indictment on Geoff. I'm just saying like 30,000-foot view, this kind of stuff makes you feel like, what' s the point of parties?
BURNETT: How many people though, when you think about and I want to get Geoff back in here, but how many people, Van, when, you know, Trump will cite as he loves to cite again and again and again the NBC cross tab and the poll that had him at 100 percent approval rating among MAGA Republicans. Okay? And we're seeing that maybe in Cassidy and you're seeing, you know, who knows what well see tonight, but you're seeing some of that.
But then you do see a lot of people who are really angry in the middle, many of whom might have been moderate or Romney, like Republicans or Brian Kemp, like Republicans, like Geoff Duncan in Georgia. Where are they going?
JONES: Well, I mean, I think they're either becoming independent or joining our party. But I think, you know, a few things that are happening here. You do have a challenge now in both parties. You know, America is great because of free markets, rule of law. And if you're a hard worker, you're welcome here no matter what your color is.
Well, look, you've got now some of the Democratic Party want to move away from free markets. You talk about Mamdani. They're moving towards socialism.
You have some people in Republican Party who are so nativist, they don't even want skilled immigrants. They're mad at Indians, tech workers coming over here.
So you're starting to see people in both parties moving away from the things that used to be, you know, pretty strong. And so it does give people a not that many places to go.
You're an independent.
RIECKHOFF: The only thing less popular than Donald Trump is the Democratic Party. And the future is S.E. Cupp. The future is the 45 percent of Americans who are unaffiliated and independent, 10,000 people are leaving the Democratic and Republican Party every single week, 60 percent of young people unaffiliated.
[19:35:03]
BURNETT: That's a stunning number, Paul.
RIECKHOFF: And because they're saying none of the above.
CUPP: Yeah.
RIECKHOFF: And the reality is that most people are leaving the Republican Party, but they're not joining the Democratic Party, and they're leaving the Democratic Party and not joining the Republican Party. And what happens when you do is you get 7 percent because they don't trust you. They're looking for people who are truly authentic, who have integrity and who are independent, and they can win.
We've seen it in local races. The mayor of Colorado Springs, Yemi Mobolade. The mayor of Chattanooga, Tennessee, Tim Kelly, is an independent. Angus King is in the Senate. He's an independent. There are three senate candidates that can win in places Democrats can't win.
BURNETT: What's interesting, because you would say, obviously, if you look at a state like Georgia, and, Geoff, I would imagine you don't have a choice, right? There's party -- there's party apparatus. And if you want to win something, you've got to pick a lane.
I mean, Geoff, do you think when you look at two Democratic senators and we know that the Jon Ossoff seat is obviously -- they -- Democrats have to retain it to control the senate? Possibly you could have a Democrat become governor.
I mean, do you believe that Georgia, which was so red and then became purple, is actually more of a blue purple now.
DUNCAN: I think the calculus I made was that the average Democratic Georgian was more moderate than the national Democratic platform. And I think going to S.E.'s comments, I think we have to detach at the state level from the federal issues. Right?
We seem to run these campaigns based on all these federal issues. But the state level, expanding Medicaid is a state issue here in Georgia. There are literally hundreds of thousands of people that are trying to go to the hospital without health insurance, and it bankrupts themselves in their communities. There's public education systems that are being under attack. The list goes on and on.
It's not changing every position. It's that I think a majority of Georgians want to have a more moderate minded, honest umpire that's able to put the facts on the table. But to the point of running as an independent, when's the last time a governor in a southern state or any state really won as an independent, congressional members, U.S. Senate members, the list goes on. Even, you know, county commission seats.
The reality is you got to pick a team. And my team was to hang -- is to hang my hat with the Democrats and to be a more moderate minded individual. And I feel like that's been rewarded everywhere I've gone across the state.
BURNETT: All right. Well, thank you very much, Geoff.
Go ahead, Astead. I'll give you the final word here.
HERNDON: You know, I think it's important. I think the fact that we're laying out here are important. More and more people are independents, less people identify with parties. There's a recognition on both sides of a brokenness of two-party system.
But I think it's a mistake to see the folks who don't fit into that as ideological centrists, right? Like not all of those people are Joe Mmanchin style in between both parties. A lot of those people believe in some populist ideals. They like the Zohran Mamdani, like a J.D. Vance, like people who exist kind of outside of traditional political structures.
And so, I sometimes think that we project a kind of D.C. version of Third Way centrism on people who are independent, and that's not really how they work. A lot of times, there are people who don't think the political system is working for them, and they're looking for political creativity overall from either party.
RIECKHOFF: Independent is an attitude, and people are rejecting all of the status quo on all sides right now, and especially young people. They want leaders, not people who say, my calculus is. They want to hear people who stand up and lead and show integrity and will fight.
BURNETT: All right. Everyone, stay with me.
And next, more results are coming in from Kentucky here. Starting to get more coming in our John King by at the magic wall. Going to show us the latest. What does it mean for Trump's relentless battle against fellow Republican Thomas Massie.
And Harry Enten on that major Trump endorsement last minute in the Texas Senate race today? So, does that mean Democrats actually just got a big pickup in their chances of getting a Senate seat there?
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:43:09]
BURNETT: Breaking news, more results coming in from Kentucky, where all eyes are on the state's fourth congressional district, where were monitoring the biggest race of the evening, which is Trump's fight to unseat fellow Republican Thomas Massie.
So, let's go to Jeff Zeleny because as you know, he's OUTFRONT at Massie's campaign headquarters.
So, Jeff, obviously, you know, we have real counting going on now, possibility of a call here very soon. What is the mood there as these numbers are coming in? And Massie is right now trailing?
ZELENY: Well, Erin, I can tell you the music is upbeat and even the mood among supporters here is upbeat. But the reality is that word has not yet reached them about what the results are looking like so far, particularly here in the suburban counties of northern Kentucky, just outside Cincinnati.
I was talking to a county official from a neighboring county, suburban county as well, who told me that he was surprised by the strength of Gallrein. And there's no doubt that Thomas Massie is not leading anywhere in early returns here. And we are getting a good share of vote.
But again, it is upbeat. The bar is open, the music is playing, so the supporters are still confident, but they are, quite frankly, just reminiscing and talking. The campaign knows what a predicament it is in and they were hoping for a stronger performance in these suburban communities among younger voters, among this libertarian strain that has, you know, really been so long and strong here in Kentucky.
But there's no doubt this $32 million campaign and overwhelming campaign from President Trump and many of his allies is taking a toll on this congressman -- Erin.
BURENTT: All right. Jeff Zeleny, thank you very much. We're going to be going back to you in just a moment.
I want to go to John King, though, at the magic wall. So, John, we're just looking at those numbers on the board as they're coming in 49 percent of the vote now reporting and Gallrein leads Massie 54-46.
[19:45:00]
KING: Yeah. And so, you're at that point, Erin, right? So, you see 10 percent, you say, everybody stay tuned. We got to go a long way.
Twenty percent, let's hang in a little bit. We're not done. We're at 49 percent. But it's how that 49 percent breaks out. Just you see the only two counties where the incumbent, Tom Massie, is leading are over here.
I'm going to start there just because this is his home county, Lewis County. As I said earlier before, we didn't have any results here. Donald Trump got 87 percent of the vote in Thomas Massie's home county in 2024. We just got results in there, and he's getting 63 percent to 37 percent and it's 85 percent.
So, the problem for Tom Massie is not a lot of people live here, number one. And he just got most of the math. He's going to get at it down there. Number two, so you pull out to the bigger picture and that's exactly what you have. You have now a little less than a ten- point race, 46, so it's eight-point race if you round Congressman Massie upright there.
But then it's just -- you're looking at the Gallrein deeper red, all over the place. And when we talk to the top of the hour, I said, here's where we need to look. The Cincinnati suburbs, the more populous areas of the district. And so, you have Campbell County. We're up to 78 percent, and it's a four-point race.
Congressman Massie has closed it since the beginning here, but not enough, at least as of now. So, you see, you move over here to Boone, Kenton County. I'm sorry.
Kenton County is only 23 percent of the vote. And so, if you're saying is there enough math out there somewhere, again, you get into, you know, possibility and probability. Mathematical possibility, there are a lot of votes out here in a big populous suburban county in the district. We're only at 23 percent.
Probability is when you look at everything else. Is there some probability that this place is suddenly going to decide to vote very differently than this place and this place and this place and this place and this place and this place in this place, right? So, but -- if you're in a headquarters, you know, it's the possibility.
So, I mentioned possibly, probably Boone, I mentioned earlier, again, you're up to 88 percent and it's about 10 points here when you look at it. So, in the places where most of the people live, here and in the northeast Louisville suburbs, down here, Massie has closed it from when the early results came in. This is only a 22 percent.
Again, you're talking about possibility and probability. So, 22 percent here in Oldham County, 52-48, a small number of votes still. So, if Geoff was saying, you know, there the Massie headquarters, you're thinking it's not over. They're still out there. We're 49 percent. Well, yes, but you see what's filling in on the map.
So here and here, let's keep talking, Erin. And you see if as -- as you get from 22 percent in one, 23 percent in the other, as you get to 30 and 40 and higher Massie has to make up that math and he has to make it up fast, or else your eyes simply don't lie.
BURNETT: Right, right. And when you talk about possibility versus probability, and obviously, you look at right now with, say, 49 percent of the vote in, you know, what does it take to turn around? I mean, it has been Gallrein up from the very beginning in terms of the numbers we've gotten, right, isn't as if it's been going back and forth or anything like that.
But you get to a certain point where it becomes mathematically impossible. When you're looking at 49 percent of the vote in, how close are you to that?
KING: Yeah. So, I leave mathematically impossible to the very talented people who work on the CNN political desk. And I don't want them coming up here and telling me, you know, don't get too far out over your skis.
But I also trust my experience and my instincts here as you go through it. And so now we just hit 60 percent, right? We just hit 60 percent, Erin. So, we're talking, you're talking at 49 percent. Well, we just came up to 60 percent and now you've got an eight-point race right now.
Again, possible? Yes. Probable? The probability window is closing as that number goes up, if that number doesn't start to shrink more substantially. It's just -- it's pretty simple. It's arithmetic, as I say, you know. Politics -- politics is sometimes really complicated, and election nights, it's fairly simple. It's addition and subtraction. Who's got the most votes?
So, 52-48 with 78 percent in there. This is where we were before. See, that's where it was. That was at 23 percent last time we were here. Right? And so now it's at 79 percent. And the challenger, Mr. Gallrein, is still ahead. It's been closed a little bit. But so, that's where your issue is if you're Massie, the people live here and they live here. You know, so there's this county is still below 25 percent. These other counties are now getting up there, Erin.
So, again, possibility, probability, just look at the look at the number. It is what it is.
BURNETT: All right. Thank you very much, John King.
So, let's just get that board up here, Astead, as we look through it, because it went from 49 percent of the vote reporting up to now 60. If we will get that board here and we can, we get a chance to an eight- point margin. So it's shrunk a little bit.
But as John said, I mean, the math -- math at some point becomes insurmountable. And obviously we're not at that point. We're not calling it. But you now have 60 percent of the vote in.
HERNDON: Yeah, it's difficult to see the path for Massie. I think that's what a lot of us thought coming into this race. But honestly, when John was talking, I was thinking about the asymmetry between the parties. You know, Democrats are talking so much about how to be a big tent, and there's ways that being a big tent will help them in the general election races and midterms, in terms of representing the increasing amount of people who feel independent and such.
But Donald Trump's goal is not to win the most races for Republicans. Donald Trump's goal is to reshape the Republican Party in his image and to make that party come to where he is, rather than kind of meeting them where they are.
[19:50:04]
And he has been so successful at that over the last seven to eight years. Increasingly, we see Democrats taking some of those tactics to like embracing things like primaries, thinking about what are the ideologies that we actually think we don't want to be a big tent about. But Republicans are further along on that process. And during that first term of Trump, he's so activated his base to say that anyone who was outside of this small group of people is the enemy. They took away from that term that he was stymied mostly by his own party.
We're seeing the political impact of that play out over and over. And now in the second term.
BURNETT: I guess in a sense, even if the base gets smaller, as long as he controls the base?
RIECKHOFF: Right.
BURNETT: At 100 percent.
RIECKHOFF: I have a different take. I think that it's much bigger than tonight. And we just spent an hour talking about Thomas Massie, a guy that maybe many Americans don't even know his name.
Even if he loses tonight, he's not going anywhere. And he represents a mass of people in this country who don't want war in Iran, who want the Epstein files, who don't like tariffs and don't like Trump. That sounds like a pretty viable presidential candidate, especially if you run within the party against Trump, or if you decide to declare your independence after this race tonight.
I mean, this can be much more than a concession speech. This can be the relaunching of something else that speaks to a lot of people in America. If Massie seizes that opportunity.
JONES: Look, I mean, for me, it's just very unhealthy sign. The Republican Party used to be the party of rugged individualism. So, you can be a rugged individual. You can be a rugged individualist as long as you do exactly what Trump says and the way he wanted said. And so, what does that even mean?
So, you literally can't have any diversity of thought? That's not a democratic ideal. So, I think it's a very -- we can see where this thing is going. I think it's very unhealthy for the country.
BURNETT: All right. Well, we'll take a pause here. We're going to be coming back as more of these results coming in, getting more coming in from Kentucky.
And Harry Enten is here to tell us something we don't know about Trump's power to oust those that he does not like.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[19:56:47]
BURNETT: Breaking news, we have a projection to make in Kentucky. CNN can now project that Ed Gallrein will win the Republican primary against Thomas Massie for the fourth congressional district in Kentucky. And that is a seismic political decision by -- made by voters in Kentucky tonight.
Let's go straight to Jeff Zeleny. He's at Thomas Massie's headquarters.
And, Jeff, a very, very clear and strong defeat for Thomas Massie. I mean, what is happening there? This is being called, obviously quite early.
ZELENY: Erin. It certainly is. I mean, the polls have been closed less than two hours. And just a few moments ago, people began filling into the room. Now word has reached the supporters of Thomas Massie that he has fallen short to Ed Gallrein.
Ed Gallrein is a farmer and a former Navy SEAL. He was a bit player in this race in many respects. President Trump made this a one-on-one contest between him and congressman Thomas Massie, and the overwhelming amount of spending and money in this race was something that the likes of which no house primary has ever seen. So, there is no question that Thomas Massie, who rose through the tea party era starting back in 2014, found himself in a very different Republican Party, a very different president and President Trump.
And the question is, what comes next for Thomas Massie? I think his speech tonight, which I'm told he will be delivering at some point, will be very interesting for the clues it holds. And do not forget, he is still a member of Congress for six more months. But for now at least, the outcome is not what the looking --
(AUDIO GAP)
BURNETT: All right. We're having a little bit of audio issue there, obviously.
So let's get to John King at the magic wall.
John, a very early call on this, but it was directionally clear from the very, very first moments.
KING: An early call, Erin, because once again, the president has proved his power over the MAGA base in a Republican primary. Want to make that clear? The important part in a Republican primary. But we went through this earlier.
I told you this would be the most important counties up here because of the population and the Cincinnati suburbs, right? Just south in northern Kentucky. Here, 95 percent in. You see the gap, 95 percent in. You see the gap, 88 percent in. You see the gap.
It's simple math, where the most people live in the district voted for the challenger by a pretty big margin. Thomas Massie is going to win his home county. Maybe there's a moral victory there, beating Donald Trump in his home county. But this is again, proof, Erin, of what I'll call the Trump paradox. At the weakest moment of his presidency nationally, the president is still proving he's a Republican force.
BURNETT: Yeah. It's incredible. As you point out, the very weakest that he has been nationally to be incredibly strong, as strong as perhaps ever in that core base.
John King, thank you very much.
Harry Enten is here with me now.
And, Harry, this call came a lot earlier than pretty much anybody had thought it might come. And it certainly came a lot earlier than it has in prior years when there have been primaries in Kentucky. You, however, were not surprised.
HARRY ENTEN, CNN CHIEF DATA ANALYST: I wasn't surprised. I wasn't surprised at all because the bottom line is this Donald Trump is the general of the Republican Party and the Republican primary voters are his soldiers.
And if you look at Thomas Massie, you can see it very clearly. You look in 2020, 2022, 2024, he was getting 75 percent, upwards of 81 percent of the primary vote in 2020. And today, he gets less than 50 percent of the vote. That's the story.
BURNETT: That is incredible because you look at it so consistent time after time after time, and then, wow, look at tonight, Donald Trump.
Thank you very much.
And it's time now for "AC360".
