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Erin Burnett Outfront

Trump Brushes Off Concerns He's Profiting From His Presidency; 29-Year-Old Socialist Topples Longtime Colorado Congresswoman; Now: Russia Launches Drone And Missile Attack On Kyiv. Aired 7-8p ET

Aired July 01, 2026 - 19:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[19:00:24]

ERICA HILL, CNN HOST: OUTFRONT next:

Trump flying on his new $400 million jet as he's pressed about claims he's profiting off the presidency. And now some close allies are turning on Trump's family.

Plus, a socialist upset. A 29-year-old defeats a 15-term incumbent Democrat. She's my guest.

And the breaking news, Russia right now on the attack, firing drones and missiles. We have new reporting on the jaw-dropping number of Russians who have lost their lives because of Putin's war.

Let's go OUTFRONT.

(MUSIC)

HILL: Good evening. I'm Erica Hill, in for Erin Burnett.

OUTFRONT tonight, Trump's $400 million gift. President Trump is now on his way home in his new Qatari-gifted jet.

Just before Trump took his first flight on the new Air Force One, he was grilled about his latest financial disclosure, which shows he pulled in a reported $2.2 billion just last year.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I don't get involved in my personal. We have funds that run my money.

REPORTER: But you are benefiting --

TRUMP: Well, I've made a lot of money before I became president, and they invest my money, and I don't talk to them. I never -- I don't even speak to them. So I have many people. I don't know what they call closed accounts or something. You put your money in and that's it. I don't talk to them.

REPORTER: To critics who say you're profiting off the presidency, Mr. President?

TRUMP: Well, you know why I'm profiting, because the stock market's going up. Everybody's profiting.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: Trump, as you heard, they're shrugging off any allegation that he is profiting off the presidency, but that $2.2 billion profit is unprecedented for a sitting president. And most of that money coming from crypto.

Trump, of course, has a coin. The first lady has a coin. His family and the son of Special Envoy Steve Witkoff announced a $2 billion crypto deal in Dubai.

It certainly sounds like Trump is doing exactly what he has accused Democrats of doing in the past.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Look at the money they make. They're full-time politicians, Pelosi and all these people, Waters, Obama.

Hillary Clinton has perfected the politics of personal profit.

As Vice President Joe Biden flew his son, Hunter, around the world on Air Force Two, sucking up money like a vacuum cleaner.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: For years, Trump and his family have slammed Hunter Biden, claiming he profited from his father's position.

Now, Trump's family seems to be doing just that. Take, for example, Eric and Don Jr. So, you see them standing right there behind the president. This was before boarding the new Air Force One. According to "The New York Times", they now stand to profit from a billion- dollar mining deal between Trump and Kazakhstan, the very same people who were calling out Hunter Biden.

And now, they're calling out Trump's two sons. Take a listen to Megyn Kelly on Sky News Australia.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MEGYN KELLY, HOST, THE MEGYN KELLY SHOW: You know, the Trump family is grifty. There's been, like, story after story about all the money that his sons are making off of the government, these government contracts they're getting, all that -- I can't stand that stuff.

DANA PERINO, FOX NEWS ANCHOR: Then your children are involved in this. And if you remember, we spent a lot of time talking about Hunter Biden. Maybe his mistake was only asking for $10 million from Ukraine.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: Kristen Holmes is OUTFRONT live tonight outside the White House. Kristen, so Trump on his way back to the White House at this hour.

There's been a lot of concern in the White House as well about July 4th, the festivities, the speech, the state fair happening right now in Washington.

Where do things stand tonight?

KRISTEN HOLMES, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: Right now, there's a lot of reason for concern, Erica. I mean, it's supposed to be 103 degrees. You're talking about people coming in to the National Mall where they have to sit for hours. They have to go through TSA screening, meaning they can't bring their own water. They can't have any cover, no umbrellas, no picnic blankets.

And I've actually spoken to D.C. officials who say that they're deeply concerned about what this means. Is there going to be access to water in this kind of heat?

Now, President Trump himself seemed to brush this off and maybe make a joke about it. He didn't seem so concerned. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: By the way, on July 4th, it's going to be approximately 107 degrees out. And I'm going to go and I'm going to make a really long speech just to show that I can do anything.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HOLMES: Well, the White House is also concerned about who is going to show up if enough people are going to show up for that speech, because right now it is slated between 9:45 and 10:20 PM with fireworks. Not until much later at 11:00 PM. That basically rules out most people with families and children. This is generally considered a family holiday.

Now, level of concern did go up after President Trump complained when a picture emerged, an aerial picture of his speech last week on the mall showed gaps in the lawn.

[19:05:02]

There were different places where there were not people filling it out, and that made him incredibly angry.

White House officials actually posted that picture and then taken it down. So, there's still concern in the White House. They want this to be a successful event, but right now everyone I'm talking to has been concerned about the logistics that people are going to even there.

HILL: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, I will say, watching the local news here in Washington, D.C., the last two mornings, there is a major concern about the safety, given the heat. We'll see how that turns out.

Kristen, appreciate it. Let's dive a little deeper into where things stand on this evening.

Bill Kristol, Donald Trump flying on this Qatari gifted plane, says that the U.S. couldn't build a plane like this. There are still security concerns about this aircraft. Do you believe they're warranted at this point?

BILL KRISTOL, EDITOR AT LARGE, THE BULWARK: Well, we don't know, do we? We haven't really had any independent look at it. We haven't seen any assurances that the -- our counterintelligence people got over it and fix it. We spent hundreds of millions of dollars on it. I think we know that the U.S. government has. So, it's a gift that we had to pay an awful lot of money to fix up and establish.

And God knows what private deals have been made with Qatar. We know about some of them, some of them that have been made in terms of crypto, as you always saying. So, the whole thing is honestly a disgrace and an embarrassment that the American president is flying around on a plane that is, quote, gifted to him by a government with whom we have lots of issues, some of them friendly, some of them not so friendly, incidentally. But Trump's been very friendly to Qatar, I've noticed.

HILL: Of course, the inaugural trips for the new Air Force One happening, as we're also digesting this nearly 1,000-page financial disclosure.

Max, there are a lot of questions that we saw the president. shrugging off questions about these this $2.2 billion in profits. Is this just the new normal?

MAX ROSE (D), FORMER U.S. REPRESENTATIVE: Well, first of all, let's not forget that while the president and his family made billions of dollars, they did so at the cost of the investors in those cryptocurrency efforts. So, it's not just that they made money, it's also that billions of people lost this, their money.

Now, this definitely may be the new normal for the Trump administration. But I'll tell you what will also be the new normal in the next Democratic administration, which will come. And that is they will not be, they cannot be one of these technocratic, normie, Democratic administrations that just goes back to the good old days.

They have to roll out real ways to hold this Trump family and their cronies accountable -- accountable for these corrupt efforts, accountable for things like this jet, and mere norms and statute and precedent. That cannot be how we go about executing that accountability. It has to be something new. It has to be something creative.

And taking some of the tools from this Trump administration might just be the way to do it.

HILL: As we watch and see about that, I've been interested, Alex, to see a shift from some. people who were often far more supportive of the president. Megyn Kelly, for example, as we just played calling the Trump family grifty.

How much weight do comments from Megyn Kelly carry with this president at this moment?

ALEX GANGITANO, POLITICO WHITE HOUSE REPORTER: Yeah, I think we saw firsthand when Megyn Kelly was critical of the president over the war in Iran. The president himself even brought her up kind of unprompted to reporters at the time. And so he clearly gets notices when she has something negative to say, gets rattled about it.

We saw Bill O'Reilly earlier today come out and say he was disappointed that Megyn Kelly and Tucker Carlson also were not more supportive of this president. So, I think the president, his allies, this White House, they notice what she has to say. They wanted her to fall more in line with allies back whatever the president's doing.

And it's been really interesting to watch what she's willing to come out. And it was the war in Iran. And now it's this grifty attitude that she's saying that the Trump family has. But they're definitely watching. And there's something a comment like this definitely impacts them. I wouldn't be surprised if unprompted we hear from the president mentioned her next time he talks to reporters.

HILL: Be interesting to see. Also, some comments from the president today about his pick for interim director of National Intelligence, Bill Pulte, controversial, to put it mildly. Take a listen to what he said earlier.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Bill is there just for a fairly short period of time, but while he's there, I said you can declassify whatever you want. I think that Bill will declassify. I told him you can declassify whatever you want.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: Declassify whatever you want. It's important to remind everyone Bill Pulche has zero experience in intelligence. He's a businessman, of course, whose family business is construction.

Bill, how concerned are you about this mandate, that he can declassify whatever he wants?

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KRISTOL: I mean, it's part of a general concern that this guy shouldn't be in this job. He's a political henchman. He used his shop at the Housing Authority to go after Trump's political opponents. God knows what he'll selectively declassify or and interpret and such in way in various ways. He's doing what Trump wants him to do, and he's in there.

Let's not forget it. Trump arranged it so that he is the actual acting director of National Intelligence. It's again an utter disgrace in Congress. I think when they come back next week, needs to think seriously about they have a range of tools and appropriations and other ways to really try to curb him or to stop him from doing certain things. It's genuinely dangerous that he's there.

HILL: Hillary Clinton was actually asked about him, and here was her take or her advice, I guess we should say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON, FORMER SECRETARY OF STATE: I hope there are. Career and even political appointees and various of the agencies that are slow walking or refusing to share information with Pulte.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: So, you know, Bill, you mentioned there are a range of things, a range of tools you believe that Congress has.

Max, you served on Homeland Security when you were in Congress. Do you agree with former Secretary Clinton there? Do you think that's actually the right approach?

ROSE: No, that comment did feel a little deep-state-y. The administration has control of this, and it is the responsibility of the American people, the voters, to reject it. It's also the responsibility of Democratic leadership in Congress, particularly when they get the gavel, to make sure that they're -- that this is properly highlighted.

But let's not forget why the DNI was established in the first place. In the aftermath of 9/11, intelligence agencies were not properly collaborating, were not coordinating, and it is one of the reasons why 9/11 occurred, one of the reasons why we saw such a tragic loss of innocent American life. We never want to return to those days, so certainly everyone should be doing everything to make sure our intelligence agencies are still highly effective.

But I can tell you, one person who's not doing that right now, that's Donald Trump, who is merely politicizing this entire process with absolutely zero concern for our national security.

HILL: Alex, what are you learning over the course of your reporting about what Trump really wants from Pulte?

GANGITANO: Yeah, I think his tone of saying he's going to declassify things is kind of a rallying call to his base. They, you know, wanted Attorney General Pam Bondi to declassify more. The president didn't think she was doing enough. Put in Todd Blanche now. He replaced, really blew up the idea of having Jay Clayton, whose senators were excited about getting confirmed as the confirmed DNI secretary, administrator, and said they said, he said, forget about Clayton, I want Pulte to stay and do some of his work for him. for whatever period of time, we still don't know.

And in talking to senators, they're uncomfortable with any acting role. They wanted to see these nominees actually come through and they go through the vetting process and the nomination process. But something like this with Bill Pulte staying as acting and in a position that he can declassify whatever he wants, I know makes many Republican senators deeply uncomfortable.

But really, at this point, all they can do is put more pressure on the president to send them a real nominee. But other than that, I think the president is seeing how much time he can live -- he could have Bill Pulte in this role and how much Pulte can actually get done, whether it's declassifying, going after some of his political enemies or whatever it is that he wants done.

HILL: Yeah, which raises new questions about how and when we may ultimately learn about what is actually being declassified, what is being done behind the scenes.

Bill Kristol, Max Rose, Alex Gangitano, good to have all they be with us tonight. Thank you.

OUTFRONT next, we are digging through Trump's 900-plus page financial disclosure form, discovering there are massive profits at Trump's Mar- a-Lago resort. Why? Where is all that money coming from? The new reporting just ahead.

Plus, a Democratic Socialist knocking out another longtime Democrat incumbent. So, should the party be worried about these seats? And about November, the man behind Sabato's crystal ball, Larry Sabato, is my guest.

And parts of midtown Manhattan coming to a standstill earlier today, all eyes glued to the two people who had scaled to the tippy, tippy top of the Empire State Building. Tonight, new video of them being taken into custody.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

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HILL: Seventy-seven million dollars, that's how much President Trump earned from his Mar-a-Lago resort in 2025. That information coming as reporters are still combing through this 900-plus page financial disclosure from Trump. The forum is also shedding new light on his finances, his latest earnings from Mar-a-Lago significantly more than he's made from that private club at any other point in either term of his presidency. That's according to estimates by Forbes and Trump's financial disclosures.

OUTFRONT now is Dan Alexander, senior editor at "Forbes", who of course does extensive reporting on Donald Trump and his finances.

So, Dan, this massive jump in revenue from Mar-a-Lago over the past year, was this just a big boost in membership, people trying to get close to the president? Where is all of that money coming from.

DAN ALEXANDER, SENIOR EDITOR AT FORBES: Well, what we saw in the first term was that when Donald Trump was getting close to the presidency, the revenue of Mar-a-Lago went way up as just as you say, people say, wait a second, I can get really, really close to Donald Trump was getting close to the presidency. The revenue of Mar-a-Lago went way up as just as you say, people say, wait a second, I can get really, really close to at the time of nominee, a potential president.

[19:20:02]

And then in the first year of the first term, that was when Donald Trump really pushed the revenue and the profits of Mar-a-Lago to new heights if everything's gotten bigger since then. The amount of money that he's bringing in, the amount of profits that Mar-a-Lago is bringing in are multiples larger than they were in the first term.

We're talking about a property that's bringing in over $50 million in profit per year, according to our estimates. That's enough to make it one of the most profitable properties in the entire Trump Organization.

HILL: Which is really saying something. I know as you were combing through all of this, something that really stood out to you as well is what you've called a mysterious loan.

So, we know it's at least $50 million to Trump from the financial institution, Charles Schwab. The founder of that company, Charles Schwab, actually visited Trump in the Oval Office last year. Here's part of that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: This is Charles Schwab. It's not just -- it's actually an individual. He made -- he made two and a half billion today and he made $900 million.

Charles Schwab was here a little while ago, one of the great financial people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: He was there at the White House. All we know about this loan is it's at least $50 million and we know the interest rate. But correct me if I'm out here, we don't actually know the exact amount.

We don't, the way that these forms are set up, anything that's over 50 million People think, oh, well, that's so much money that you don't even really need to get specific about it, not realizing that we would one day have a president who's worth $6 billion in the White House. And the exact size of that really, really matters.

So, the result is that we don't know how much debt Donald Trump is in right now that's new. In the first term, and all through the time that he was out of office, we had a really specific idea of what he owed, to whom he owed it, what the interest rates were.

And the principal reason for that is that most of those loans were mortgages. And so, we could see property records. This one is pledged against some anonymous set of assets. We don't know what those are. And so, there are no more records to chase down. other than this disclosure, and this disclosure simply doesn't give a lot of information.

HILL: Yeah, it raises more questions than it gives answers. I know there are also a number of international licensing deals in the filing, and they seem to follow a really familiar pattern here.

ALEXANDER: Yeah, if you look, you know, most of Donald Trump's international licensing business has moved to the Middle East. and to India, but really the big driver of it is the Middle East. And you see a lot of Middle East money in his crypto ventures too. The two principal places where this is coming from are the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia. And there are two partners that Trump has in each of those countries that have allowed him to sort of spread his name all throughout the region and strike all these new deals. Overall, it adds up to more than $60 million in 2025.

HILL: Real quickly, before I let you go, given how many questions there are, how big all these numbers are, if the IRS, for example, had any questions, is there anything they could do here given the immunity deal that Trump struck?

ALEXANDER: There are major questions about what exactly the immunity deal is and whether it applies to his 2025 earnings. But Donald Trump is looking at the biggest tax bill of his life, and he might just have to get out of jail free card where he can basically do whatever he wants and the IRS can't go after him for it.

HILL: Which would be something.

Dan, really appreciate it as always. Thank you.

ALEXANDER: Thank you.

HILL: OUTFRONT next, a major upset. I'll speak with the Democratic socialist who just took out a longtime incumbent in Colorado. What does her win say about the direction of the Democratic Party?

Plus, CNN Learning the U.S. reported more than 100 people to Venezuela just hours before the deadly quakes, their hotel collapsing. Tonight, we hear from one of the survivors.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[19:28:27]

HILL: New tonight, House Minority Leader Hakim Jeffries congratulating the latest Democratic Socialist to win a House primary, calling Melat Kiros' victory over 15-term incumbent Diana DeGette in Colorado hard-fought and vowing the Democrats will regain control of the House. Kiros is now on the verge of joining Congress at the age of 29 years old. This is considered a pretty safe blue seat, and she's not wasting any time making her agenda known.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MELAT KIROS (D), NOMINEE FOR U.S. HOUSE IN COLORADO: We will not wait to take the fight to Donald Trump and oligarchy. We will not wait! We will not wait to abolish ICE and pass Medicare for all.

And no, we will not wait to end the genocide in Palestine.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: Melat Kiros is OUTFRONT now.

It's good to have you with us tonight.

So, your win, of course, comes just a week after two other Democratic socialists endorsed by Mayor Zohran Mamdani, one House primaries in New York City. Politics are local. Do you see evidence, though, on a broader national scale that progressive voices are, in fact, gaining support?

KIROS: Absolutely, I think what we're seeing right now is that candidates that are actually speaking to and fighting for the kind of policies that a super majority of voters in our party supports are winning -- things like Medicare for all universal childcare and arms embargo in Israel. Each of these issues have a majority support of the voters of our party, but yet we don't see any meaningful progress for them in Congress.

And so, voters are taking power back into their own hands and sending in fighters that are going to fight for those issues.

BURNETT: You told supporters last night, we're taking back our country, our party rather, and our country. You talk about the supermajorities for certain issues. The Democrats have always wanted to be a big tent party. do believe at this point there is room in this party for diverse voices, even for moderates.

KIROS: Absolutely. The Democratic Party is one that fights for working people. The diversity that we have in our thoughts and our ideas and our plans for what we could do to support working families is what makes us great.

The problem that we -- that we did that we have right now in the room that we don't have in our party for is for the money. The big money from corporations and from special interests that have been actively derailing the agenda for working families.

HILL: A local rabbi in Denver wrote an op-ed titled Here's why Melat Kiros's candidacy scares me as a liberal Jewish woman in Colorado. She writes, "I have deep concerns that the just world she claims to want to create does not include Jews like me and my community. I don't believe Melat Kiros has shown the curiosity, humility, and empathy necessary to represent my community as a political leader."

Rabbi Kobrin said that the Denver Jewish community has repeatedly tried to engage with you to discuss their fears, their concerns, but says time and again, we have been met with dismissal, indifference, or silence. Are you open to those conversations?

KIROS: I am. And our campaign has been in communication with folks in the Jewish community about some of the things that we're talking about. At the end of the day, my commitment is to protecting the sanctity of human life and dignity. And that includes combating the hate and the rising anti-Semitism that we are seeing, not only in the city and in the state, but across the country, and standing up to combat that hate and protect our Jewish neighbors in our district is one of my top priorities.

I sincerely believe that part of that fight is going to be decoupling the conflation that we are seeing right now for the actions of the state of Israel and with the Jewish people and with Judaism, which is putting them in greater risk. And so, making sure we're combating that conflation, combating the hate that is rising as a result of it is a top priority for me.

HILL: So, you said it's a top priority for you that your campaign has been in touch. But what about you personally?

KIROS: Yes, I've had conversations with members of the Jewish community, members who disagree with me on uncertain issues, but we, at the very least, have the same baseline of protecting human life, protecting the dignity of life for Palestinians, for Israelis, for anyone of any faith, regardless of what kind of government they believe in.

At the end of the day, what we are talking about is a genocide that's taking place in Palestine, and you're talking about those actions being conflated to all Jewish people, which could not be more dangerous, to the rising anti-Semitism that we are seeing.

So, decoupling that is a number one priority for me. It's a conversation I've had with several members of the Jewish community here in Denver and conversations that I hope to continue to have so that we can work together to combat this rising hate.

HILL: It would be good to hear if you and the rabbi actually are able to sit down. Please let us know if you do have that conversation.

As I mentioned, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries praised your hard-fought victory, as he called it. He vowed the Democrats will regain the House. And he also went on to say House Democrats will tackle, aggressively tackle, the affordability crisis, fix our broken health care system, and end the culture of corruption in Washington."

I know, though, you've said you wouldn't support Jeffries as speaker unless he stops accepting PAC money.

So, would you commit to working with him on those issues he laid out? Either way?

KIROS: Absolutely, absolutely. That -- that is the goal here, right? At the end of the day, a lot of the victories that we are seeing across this country are so important because what we are showing is that the fight is with the oligarchy. The fight is with the corruption that we are seeing in government and we have to work together to be able to find the solutions necessary to get that done. My commitment to not voting in any leadership that takes corporate PAC

money is the standard that I think we should be setting as a party if we want to be winning again. is a number one issue for voters, and we should be setting the standard for what a truly functioning democracy looks like, and that means getting money out of our politics.

HILL: Good to have you with us tonight. Thanks for joining.

KIROS: Thank you, Erica.

HILL: OUTFRONT now, Larry Sabato, who, of course, is the man behind Sabato's Crystal Ball.

So, Larry, you have said these seats, right, with Democratic Socialist nominees are safe. These are safely blue seats. But Democrats should, in your view, be worried about other seats? Is that because there could be a trickle-down for more progressive candidates that puts some of those seats now perhaps in more of a toss-up category?

LARRY SABATO, FOUNDER & DIRECTOR, UNIVERSITY OF VIRGINIA CENTER FOR POLITICS: Well, Erica, I think you have to look at it like this. Whether the Democrats win or lose in November, they're going to have somewhere between 200 and 230 or 235 seats. So, we're talking about a total of maybe 10 or 12 Democratic socialists if they win seats that they're running for in other states before the primaries end in September. That's a tiny percentage of the Democratic Caucus.

[19:35:01]

If the Democratic leadership is making one mistake right now, it's in not carefully explaining and maybe spending money to get the message out that that is, in fact, the truth that Democratic socials will be a small group in the party. They may be a swing group on this vote or that vote, but they're not going to be running the caucus. The Democratic Party is much, much broader than that, and it's primarily a moderate liberal party, even in the House of Representatives.

What does this do when it comes to hope for Democrats, right? Does it put potential control of the House in danger for them or just their margins?

SABATO: I think it puts control in danger if these new progressive candidates, Democratic socialist candidates are too dominant in the national campaign. Not to not to criticize you or any of your colleagues at CNN or any other news channel, but to the extent that you invite this handful of Democratic socialists to be the guests representing the Democratic Party on your talk shows and panels, you're going to reinforce the idea that they're more important than they are in the caucus.

HILL: Although you still talk to them, right? If they're if they're part of it.

SABATO: Yeah, they're -- they're part of it. But you know, it's a small group. HILL: There are a series of polls out today, "The New York Times" and Siena in these key Senate races, which will ultimately decide which party controls the Senate. They show Democrats now within the margin of error for flipping multiple seats, including in Iowa. Democrat Josh Turek trailing Republican Ashley Hinson by two percentage points. Trump won that state by 13 points in 2024 in Ohio, Trump won by 11 points. Democrat Sherrod Brown now within three points of Republican Senator John Husted.

So, I know a few weeks ago you moved Iowa from likely to lean Republican, made Ohio a toss-up. When you look at your crystal ball tonight, do you still see signs of optimism for Democrats in those states?

SABATO: Absolutely. This has been one of the most interesting aspects of the midterm elections so far. Those two states, Iowa and Ohio, used to vote regularly Democratic for president, governor, senator, and of course, with Trump's ascension in 2016, they flipped almost entirely. Republicans have been winning virtually everything in those two states at the statewide level.

Well, you know, there's always a snapback. I've seen this so many times in so many states over so many decades. It's going to happen, and this year it might well happen. The two Democratic nominees that you just mentioned, Sherrod Brown, a former US senator who lost narrowly two years ago in 2024 and the Democratic nominee Josh Turek in Iowa, who is really running a strong race being helped by the Democratic gubernatorial candidate Rob Sand, who's leading in that race. He's the state auditor right now.

That combination can really produce surprises on election night when they work together, as these two seem to be doing.

HLL: I do also want to get your take on. So that same "Times" poll shows a dead heat right now between James Talarico and Ken Paxton in what, of course, has been very traditionally reliably red Texas.

Do you think it stays this close as we approach November?

SABATO: Well, you know, I've been --

HILL: It's a long way off, I know.

SABATO: It's not just a long way off. It's also that almost all of us in this business of election prediction have been fooled over and over and over again because we get so many people and so many pollsters calling and saying, look at this, Texas is close or the Democrat is ahead.

And if you were actually betting money, and we don't at the Crystal Ball, but if you were betting money, you would have been in serious financial trouble by now since the early 1990s, because Democrats have won nothing.

So, I'll believe it when I see it.

HILL: Okay, fair enough. Larry, good to see you. Thank you.

SABATO: Thanks, Erica.

HILL: OUTFRONT next, the breaking news, Russia tonight striking Ukraine's capital with drones and missiles, and the new reporting tonight on the staggering losses Putin has suffered on the battlefield.

Plus, new video just in of the moment. Police took into custody the two people who pulled off this death-defying stunt, climbing to the top of that tower on the Empire State Building.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[19:44:00]

HILL: Breaking news, ongoing Russian strikes happening in Kyiv right now. Authorities there say they are battling drones and warning that ballistic missiles are incoming. And all of this unfolding just hours after Ukraine's President Vladimir Zelenskyy warned that Vladimir Putin was planning a massive strike as soon as this evening.

This also coming as a new report for my next guest, estimates Russia has suffered as many as 450,000 troop deaths since launching its invasion of Ukraine more than four years ago.

OUTFRONT now, Seth Jones.

Seth, so you say that Russia is currently facing its darkest period since the war began, with its military stall on the battlefield, losing territory in some areas. In some ways, it feels like we have seen that headline before, and yet Russia continues to hold on.

SETH JONES, PRESIDENT, DEFENSE & SECURITY DEPARTMENT, CENTER FOR STRATEGIC & INTERNATIONAL STUDIES: Yeah, that's a great irony, Erica, is that Russia is losing at historical numbers. Our estimate, 450,000 deaths since the war began in February, and then 1.4 million casualties.

To put that in perspective, the U.S. has lost just about 100,000 in all of its wars, between World War II and today.

[19:45:06]

So, the Russians have lost four times those numbers in only four and a half years. Yet, Vladimir Putin continues to fight and to accept those extraordinary fatalities and casualty rates among his forces despite those losses.

And I know there's even among your findings, right, Ukraine, I think, has lost about a third as many troops. Those estimates, though, could even be low, because Moscow, I know, routinely underreports casualties.

Do you believe there's a chance the actual toll could be even higher than 450,000 for Russia? JONES: I mean, it's possible. Any estimate is that is an estimate. I mean, we have taken a look at a lot of data and talked to intelligence and government organizations from across Europe and the United States. It is noteworthy that the British intelligence estimate is a little bit higher than ours, closer to 500,000 deaths, which is -- which is stunning.

So -- but I think, you know, our general sense is we're in the ballpark.

HILL: In the ballpark.

What does it also tell you about the state of this war, right, and how much longer Russia can actually continue, especially with losses of that magnitude?

JONES: Yeah, and also, you know, it is worth noting, as we've seen in CNN video clips, that Russian cities are now being routinely hit by drone strikes and long-range missiles, Moscow, St. Petersburg, Crimea, which has been hit. How long can Russia sustain that? That's a very good question. It's one that's impossible to predict.

What I will say is Vladimir Putin is feeling the pressure right now, the economic pressure from this war dragging on and the fatalities, which is, I think, why it's he's looking to respond in some way that, as you noted at the beginning of this segment, President Zelenskyy is predicting large-scale Russian attacks against Ukraine over the next 24 hours.

HILL: So, Ukraine, right, under attack in this very moment, right? And Zelenskyy says they're anticipating ballistic missiles. The drone attacks are already underway.

When it comes to the losses for Ukraine, the numbers are smaller, as we noted, about a third. Ukraine's population, though, is also much smaller.

Where do things stand for Ukraine at this moment?

JONES: Well, Ukraine does face what we call a manpower disadvantage. The Russians have a much larger population, more forces they can draw on, and a much larger population base.

The problem Ukraine has is that it has to have this this discussion about does it lower its conscription age right now to something closer to 18, which is where the U.S. was when it was in World War II, for example. Plus, it's struggling with munitions shortfalls as well. So, Ukraine has a couple of different problems it's going to have to deal with.

HILL: What are the chances that Ukraine sees any additional support coming out of next week's NATO summit?

JONES: Well, Erica, that's a good question. I know there's been a lot of discussion from NATO countries, particularly European NATO countries, of continuing to provide more air defense capabilities and more components for drones and missiles, the ones that we're seeing strike Russian targets in cities like Moscow and St. Petersburg.

I think that's going to be a big part of the conversation. How much the U.S. wants to provide, that is a big question mark.

HILL: Yeah, that one up in the air also, of course, especially with a large focus on the war in Iran at this point.

Seth, appreciate it. Thank you.

JONES: Thanks, Erica.

HILL: OUTFRONT next, an incredible story of survival. More than 100 people deported to Venezuela just before the deadly earthquakes hit one week ago hit the hotel where they had been staying. That hotel collapsed. One of the survivors speaking out next.

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[19:53:19]

HILL: The breaking news out of Venezuela, the death toll now well above 2,000, one week after a pair of earthquakes devastated the country. Countless people remain missing tonight. New video into CNN shows residents scouring through rubble using their hands, no machinery in sight.

We've also learned now that more than 100 Venezuelans who were deported from the US just hours before the quake struck had been taken to a hotel not far from the epicenter, that hotel collapsed.

Our Stefano Pozzebon just spoke with one of the survivors. He's OUTFRONT now in Venezuela.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

STEFANO POZZEBON, CNN CONTRIBUTOR (voice-over): It's been a week since a double earthquake devastated Venezuela. But for Ninoska Gutierrez, the pain feels very fresh.

NINOSKA GUTIERREZ, SURVIVED EARTHQUAKES AFTER BEING DEPORTED BY U.S.: My legs were straight, but I had a beam on top of me, trapping me. I couldn't feel my legs.

POZZEBON (voice-over): She said she escaped miraculously with just minor injuries, scrapes and bruises, slipping from under the rubble and walking for two miles before finding help. But this latest tragedy, part of an endless list of blows. She fled Venezuela's economic crisis in 2018, and had been living in Minnesota as an undocumented immigrant since 2024.

GUTIERREZ: This year, two U.S. citizens died for defending us. The U.S. administration really made a mess with the migrants.

POZZEBON (voice-over): Scared by the unrest in Minneapolis, she moved to Miami, where after an incident with her daughter, she was arrested, charged with a misdemeanor, and transferred to ICE custody. GUTIERREZ: I was held for seven days in the worst conditions you can imagine. They treat us like animals.

POZZEBON (voice-over): Deported on June 24, she and other 145 migrants landed in Caracas just hours before the tremors began.

GUTIERREZ: They took our handcuff off. Thank God, because finally I was going to be free.

POZZEBON (voice-over): Gutierrez and the others were in this hotel when the walls began to shake, the floor crumbling under her feet.

POZZEBON: I mean, when you got out of there, what did you see?

GUTIERREZ: I couldn't believe it. I don't know if I was conscious or not. Everything was so fast, and I asked God, why did you allow this?

POZZEBON (voice-over): Venezuelan authorities are yet to say how many of the 146 deportees died in the earthquake. Many are still missing.

In a statement to CNN, ICE said that when an individual is no longer in ICE custody, the agency is no longer responsible for them.

At home, Gutierrez is somehow trying to rebuild her life. She reconnected with her daughter, Oriana, a daughter she had not seen in four years. And in signs that life goes on, despite the tragedy, her niece has just given birth to a healthy baby.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

HILL: Stefano is live at this hour in Caracas.

So, Stefano, where do the recovery efforts stand at this point?

POZZEBON: Well, Erica, as you can see from behind my back, they're still going through with the excavator. There's just been a pile of rubble removed, and that's why you see some dust. in the background. However, of course, Erica, we have to say that the atmosphere in Caracas is remarkably different from just a couple of days ago.

Today is, of course, a week since that terrible earthquake. The government has called for a week of national mourning to commemorate the victims as more and more this nation comes to terms with the magnitude of this tragedy -- Erica.

HILL: It is on a magnitude that is almost tough to wrap your head around.

Stefano, we appreciate it. Thank you.

Also breaking tonight, new video showing the moment two people were taken into custody after scaling the Empire State Building. The couple climbing all the way up the antenna on top of the 1,400-foot skyscraper in the middle of New York City. They documented their climb on Instagram, and turns out it's far from the first time they have scaled buildings in this way. They were actually featured in a 2024 Netflix documentary titled "Skywalkers: A Love Story".

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Panic attacks on heights. This is the wake-up call.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HILL: Jason Carroll is OUTFRONT now.

So, Jason, what more do we know about this couple and how all of this unfolded today?

JASON CARROLL, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, let's start with a couple of Erica. The couple has been identified as 32-year-old Ivan Kuznitzov and Angela Nikolov, 33 years old, both from Orange, New Jersey. They are facing several charges, including -- just let me just read some of it to you -- reckless endangerment, criminal trespass, criminal mischief, Burglary.

The NYPD not fooling around when it comes to this and in fact the NYPD did release some video of Taking this couple into custody just as it was happening. They released that video It was very calm and at one point the officer asked Angela Nikolov He said she said I'm okay. I'm okay. And he said do you speak any other languages? She said, "Russian".

This whole ordeal started at about noon. That's when the initial call came in that a couple wearing all black wearing mask, black mask, had made their way to the top of the Empire State Building, all the way to the top of the antenna. And at one point, they unfurled a banner that said, "When the power of love beats the love of power, the world knows peace," a reference to Jimi Hendrix.

And for a while, Erica, as we were down here watching it, watching it all happen, there were a lot of questions initially about what was their motive, what were they doing up there? Well, immediately, it became clear once they started hugging and kissing, posting to social media, he got down on one knee, and it was clear that this was some sort of engagement.

Well, at this point now, despite all of their high-flying antics of the past, they're going to have to determine, was it all worth it? Certainly, a memorable engagement, but now that they're facing all these charges, they're going to have to determine whether or not it was worth it -- Erica.

And we should note too, this all happens, of course, at a moment where New York City is on high alert, the 250th anniversary of America, July 4th coming up, one of the most highly anticipated weddings of the century, potentially Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce at Madison Square Garden.

There is a lot going on in New York City. I'm sure this was not something that was anticipated, but the NYPD reacting pretty quickly as we know, making their way there. Jason, really appreciate it. Thank you.

Thanks to all of you for joining us tonight here on ERIN BURNETT OUTFRONT.

Stay tuned. "AC360" starts right now.