Return to Transcripts main page
Campbell Brown
Democratic Race Intensifies; McCain and Clinton Pandering on Gas Prices?; Guam Participates in the Voting Process; Dirty Political Trick Posted on YouTube
Aired May 02, 2008 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are in the same room. They're going to be the speaking from the same podium, trying to court the very same North Carolina Democrats.
We are just four days out from the primaries in North Carolina and Indiana, contests that Hillary Clinton is now calling the game- changer. The stakes couldn't be higher or the voters much angrier.
And before we look at why, let's get the view, as we always do, from 30,000 feet.
Hillary Clinton spent the whole day in North Carolina. She's due this hour at an important Democratic Party dinner in Raleigh. Chelsea Clinton is also campaigning for her mother in North Carolina today. She went to Winston-Salem and Lexington. Bill Clinton is in Indiana hitting the small towns and suburbs around Indianapolis.
Barack Obama started the day in Indiana, but then he headed to North Carolina. He will also be attending Democrats' big dinner in Raleigh tonight. Michelle Obama is telling crowds at her North Carolina campaign stops that her husband is still the underdog in the presidential race.
As for John McCain, he held a town hall in Denver today and then headed home to Arizona for a restful weekend.
But there will be no rest this weekend for Senators Clinton and Obama.
Here's our senior political correspondent joining us now, Candy Crowley -- Candy.
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Hey, Campbell.
You know, when we get to Wednesday morning, the headlines are going to be who won. But if there is a subtext and if Hillary Clinton could write it, it would be demographics.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
CROWLEY (voice-over): A John Deere service center in North Carolina, an aging steel plant in Indiana, heading toward a primary day that will be watched for both who wins and who votes, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton move from one working-class backdrop to another.
SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON (D-NY), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You know, I'm here in the middle of this street in front of the courthouse, and just feeling so much at home, because small towns, whether they're in North Carolina, New York, or Arkansas, are really the base of this country. Small towns gave us our values.
C. CROWLEY: Clinton wants a big showing from working-class and rural voters to bolster her superdelegate argument that he can't win that key Democratic voting bloc. Obama wants to cut into her strength to show he can.
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I do think that one of the ironies of the last two or three weeks was this idea that somehow Michelle and I were elitist, pointy-headed intellectual types.
C. CROWLEY: They will go down to the wire arguing over a bottom- line working-class issue, the price of gas, specifically, lifting the federal gas tax for three months. Yes, even a little break is better than no break.
CLINTON: I want the oil companies to pay the federal gas tax for the summer.
C. CROWLEY: No, it would save consumers a grand total of $30 and would likely drive prices up.
OBAMA: This is not a real solution. It's a political stunt.
C. CROWLEY: Economists largely agree with him. Political types think she's on to something with voter appeal.
Clinton and Obama go into this final weekend before the Indiana and North Carolina primaries from two different places. He's coming off a loss in Pennsylvania and Wright week, the worst seven days of his presidential bid. Losing both states will send a massive shudder through his campaign, not to mention the Democratic Party. He's up 10 in North Carolina, dead even in Indiana.
"I think we have a terrific chance," he says. But what of the Wright effect? He doesn't know, but there is a perceptible hedging of bets.
OBAMA: What I don't spend a lot of time doing is obsessing about what ifs and should-have-beens. What I will do is we will see what happens on Tuesday and then we're going to keep ongoing to the next -- next contest.
C. CROWLEY: She's coming off a nice win in Pennsylvania, but two losses for her is a doomsday scenario. Two wins, and she still can't catch him in pledged delegates but, oh, what a superdelegate argument she would have.
CLINTON: You know, this primary election on Tuesday is a game changer. This is going to make a huge difference in what happens going forward. The entire country, and probably even a lot of the world, is looking to see what North Carolina decides.
C. CROWLEY: For all the policy, all the polls, all the pundits, politics is still an art of the unknown.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: And, Candy Crowley, you said it in your piece right then. Obama has had a rough past couple of weeks. And he seemed there very reluctant to sort of define victory on Tuesday. But how do you think they are defining it?
C. CROWLEY: Well, listen, they would like to pull out a win in North Carolina.
If he wins there -- Obama was asked this before about Pennsylvania, and he said, look, I don't like to lose and a loss is if somebody else gets 51 percent. So, he's under no illusion. His campaign is under no illusion that a loss in North Carolina would be extremely bad for the Obama camp.
However, they will point to the math. And the math shows, at least by CNN's calculations, that she would have to win close to 70 percent of the popular vote in all of the primaries going forward in order to catch him in pledged delegates. And, as they point out, this has been about pledged delegates. She obviously will say, yes, but there are those superdelegates. And that's true as well.
BROWN: All right, Candy Crowley for us tonight -- thanks, Candy.
With just days to go before Indiana and North Carolina, the Democratic race is getting tighter. CNN's poll of polls from North Carolina shows Obama leading Clinton by 10 points now, 50 percent to 40 percent, with 10 percent unsure. And that margin was a few points larger before the Pennsylvania primary 10 days ago.
Our Indiana poll of polls couldn't be any closer, 47 percent to 47 percent, with only 6 percent of voters unsure.
Tom Foreman right now tells us what to look for in these two states come Tuesday.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: If you are an Obama supporter, if you like the senator from Chicago, then keep a close eye on the northwest part of Indiana. This area is heavily influenced by Chicago TV, particularly Gary, which is only about 25 miles from downtown Chicago.
These folks have known about Obama for years and he's built a lot of support here. But if you are a fan of Senator Clinton, you will find much of the rest of Indiana tilted demographically in her favor. Indiana is 89 percent white. That's above the national average. Just a bit more than half the state is female, 52 percent. That's another tiny edge that she might be able to exploit. And this is could hurt him -- 42 percent of the voters consider themselves conservative Democrats. So, they may not buy his message of change. They may prefer Clinton's message of experience.
When we fly over to North Carolina, the other primary state on Tuesday, however, the tables and the demographics turn. The African- American population rises to 26 percent, more than twice the national average. North Carolina voters overall are slightly younger.
That matters because the age gap has been profound in this race. Simply put, people under 45 more often vote for him. Above 45, they go for her. And North Carolina is a little better educated than average, in large part because of the large presence of some top universities.
And the more educated voters are, the more they will tend to vote for Obama. But even if Clinton does not win in North Carolina, she needs to do pretty well there, because this state is by population one of the 10 largest in the country. And her sales pitch has been for weeks, look, I can win the big states, and he can't -- Campbell.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: Thanks, Tom.
So, how are voters in North Carolina and Indiana sizing the candidates up, and how are the candidates responding?
We're going to toss that to our political panel tonight. Michael Crowley is senior editor of "The New Republic." Tara Wall is deputy editorial page editor at "The Washington Times." She's also a former outreach director for the Republican National Committee. And Arianna Huffington, founder and editor of thehuffingtonpost.com, she's also the author "Right Is Wrong: How the Lunatic Fringe Hijacked America, Shredded the Constitution, and Made Us All Less Safe."
Welcome to everybody.
And, Michael, you're in the studio with me. I will start with you.
Obama still battling this perception, fairly or unfairly, that he is an elitist. So, out on the stump right now, he's very hard -- working very hard to try to sort of connect with the average Joe. And he was doing that today. Let's listen to what he said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: You know, we have struggled with paying student loans. We have tried to figure out how to make sure that we have got adequate day care. I have actually filled up my own gas tank.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: And his poll numbers have been dropping, as we have pointed out. Is that the right message to stop the bleeding? MICHAEL CROWLEY, SENIOR EDITOR, "THE NEW REPUBLIC": Yes, I think absolutely.
For one thing I would say, he's happy he's not talking about Jeremiah Wright. It could be a lot worse. This is a better argument for him now in context. But, yes, I think that he has to keep reassuring voters right now that, I am one of you.
He comes across as a little bit cool, a little bit academic. He does have a very academic background. And I think that there's evidence anecdotally and in the polling that people wonder, does he understand the concerns of working-class Americans?
Now, it's all very superficial and it doesn't really say that much about him, but this is a primary concern for him right now.
BROWN: Arianna, do you agree with that?
ARIANNA HUFFINGTON, CO-FOUNDER, HUFFINGTONPOST.COM: You know, I agree on the surface, but there are so many other factors, Campbell, first of all, turnout.
If we have some really unprecedented turnout because of all the attention being given to these two states, then that is more likely to help Obama than Clinton. And after all, you know, when we look at all the demographics and all the swing votes, we sometimes forget that 50 percent of eligible voters do not vote even in a general election.
So, what if Obama's message of change, coupled with the outrage of the last eight years and the anxiety about the economy and the war, leads to more people, especially more young people than usual, coming out to vote? That could be something that could turn the tables again.
BROWN: All right, Tara, I'm going to go to you as soon as we come back. Registered Republicans are allowed to vote in Tuesday's Democratic primary in Indiana. And I want to ask you who could that hurt the most.
We will be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: The economy, the war, the housing crisis and on and on -- Americans are not happy about much of anything.
In fact, our new CNN poll just out today shows, a whopping 70 percent of voters say that the economy is in bad shape. And, for presidential candidates, all these anxieties present both opportunity, but also real danger.
And let's bring back our panel now. We have got "The New Republic"'s Michael Crowley, Tara Wall of "The Washington Times," and Arianna Huffington of "The Huffington Post."
And, Tara, a lot of dissatisfaction in the country these days, and an interesting side note to that. Today's "Wall Street Journal" reports a lot of the Republicans will be voting in the Democratic primary in Indiana. The rules allow anybody to vote in that contest. Are Clinton and Obama actually reaching out and trying to make a play for Republicans in Indiana?
TARA WALL, DEPUTY EDITORIAL PAGE EDITOR, "THE WASHINGTON TIMES": Yes. And why the Republicans would want to vote in a Democratic primary is beyond me.
But let me just say very quickly I have to respond to that clip by Obama where he had to actually say that he pumps his own gas without being asked. I think that that was -- had a small hint of pandering in there, and it's not helping with getting rid of that elitist image of his. But let me go on...
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: Yes, but I think he might have been -- in fairness to him, I think he might have been responding to Hillary Clinton, who had done this photo-op at a gas station the previous day. So, I'm not sure that that was directly in context. But go ahead.
(CROSSTALK)
WALL: OK.
But I will say as it relates to Republicans voting in that primary, in the Democratic primary, it actually would probably hurt Hillary Clinton more. There are a number of independents and Republicans, although they have fallen back a little bit from Obama in recent days, he still has more support among independents and Republicans than Hillary Clinton does.
There are a number of African-Americans who are Republicans and independents that are actually -- that I know personally who are actually supporting Barack Obama. So, it would help him. I don't think it's being done as a concerted effort or to hijack their primary, so to speak.
I think there are some genuine Republicans and independents who do want to support a candidate. And that is likely to be Barack Obama, more so than it is Hillary Clinton.
BROWN: But, Arianna, I think you disagree with her. And you do believe that there's some troublemakers out there, don't you?
HUFFINGTON: Well, it's not really a matter of opinion or belief. It's a matter of listening to Rush Limbaugh, who has launched Operation Chaos.
And he's suspended it for a day while he thought maybe Obama was in real trouble. But he's reinstated it, and he's urging his dittoheads to go and vote for Hillary Clinton, because he wants to prolong this primary. He wants ideally a win for Hillary Clinton. And that's -- so, that could have an interesting impact on the race. Of course... (CROSSTALK)
WALL: I seriously -- I don't know too many self-respecting Republicans that are actually going to vote for Hillary Clinton. I mean, I think some of that has got to be a little bit of dog and pony just to make a point.
HUFFINGTON: Well, Rush Limbaugh has a lot of followers. They may not be self-respecting or respected by others.
WALL: Absolutely.
HUFFINGTON: But, nevertheless, they could very well go and do whatever Rush Limbaugh wants them to do. They could be challenged.
Indiana has some quirky rules about challenging people who do not vote for the other party in good faith. So, it could be a long time before we know the results.
BROWN: All right, Michael, you be the deciding you be the deciding vote in this one.
(LAUGHTER)
M. CROWLEY: Well, look, I mean, I think there are a lot of Republicans who even after the Jeremiah Wright stuff and the problems that Obama has had are genuinely afraid of this guy. He's sort of an unknown quantity to them.
They know where Hillary is vulnerable. They have beaten her up before. They feel like they have driven her negatives way up before. So, I actually think it is plausible that there are Republicans who would go in there and pull the lever for Hillary, thinking that they were in sort of an indirect way going for McCain.
But there may also what they call Obamacans, and these are Republicans who are fed up with their own party, looking for the kind of change Obama talks about. So, you could have some of both in there. It's quite possible.
BROWN: We will see what happens.
OK, guys, hold it right there.
Obviously, it's the economy again. And, by far and away, the greatest worry is over what things cost, not just gas at the pumps and mortgages, but nearly everything, how those anxieties have become the number-one issue. That's coming up in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Coast to coast, it is what everyone is talking about and what matters most in deciding how to vote. The economy is issue number one, topping the list for almost half the people polled in the CNN/Opinion Research poll just out today. And it's almost equal to all other hot-button issues combined, the war, health care, terror, and immigration. Now look at what voters are most concerned about when it comes to the economy, first up, inflation, again, close to half of those polled. And the rising cost of living is way out ahead of the combined worries making up the other half of the pie, issues hashed over and over again on the campaign trail, the housing mess, taxes and even unemployment.
So, it's the economy again. But let's zoom in even closer to what worries voters most when it comes to soaring prices. Well, at about $3.60 a gallon, it's no surprise that the cost of filling up tops the list. But in second place, we're finding food prices. For many, a trip to the grocery store is all about sticker shock right now.
Here's CNN's David Mattingly.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DAVID MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Excuse me, ma'am.
(voice-over): With sometimes seven mouths to feed at home, Bernice Johnson (ph) says buying less at the grocery isn't an option. So, with every bite of food, higher food prices are biting back. Did you notice a change while were you in there today?
(on-camera): Did you notice a change while you were in there today?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Oh, yes, big change.
MATTINGLY (voice-over): Johnson has always counted her pennies and says this basket of groceries would have cost about $100 last year. Today, the bill is more than 40 percent higher.
(on-camera): How much you got?
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: One forty-seven.
MATTINGLY: One forty-seven.
(voice-over): Government figures confirm huge jumps in the bases. When it comes to milk, shoppers are paying 23 percent more than last year, a carton of eggs, 35 percent more. Even white bread is up 16 percent. There is also a 17 percent jump in bananas and a 13 percent jump in apples.
Shoppers everywhere are making changes. Checkbook.org sees buyers bargain-shopping for the cheapest grocery and sticking to a list.
ROBERT KRUGHOFF, CHECKBOOK.ORG: They have to choose their stores carefully, choose the lower-priced stores, use a list, plan better for what you're going to buy, so you don't have waste, you don't have impulse buying. MATTINGLY: Bargain hunting is the first choice of most shoppers. Customers clipped 100 million more coupons in 2007. When that is not enough, the next step is do without. Some now even treat items like ground chuck, 8 percent more expensive than last year, as a luxury.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: I don't buy red meat hardly at all anymore. And if I do, I buy the cheapest brands, no steaks and stuff like that. I go to hamburger and stuff like that.
MATTINGLY (on-camera): And the belt-tightening doesn't stop there, as consumers cut back on other spending to make it through the grocery checkout, a trend not lost on some in Washington.
SEN. CHARLES SCHUMER (D), NEW YORK: While some might be telling us to make lemonade out of the lemons this economy has given us, even this is going to be more expensive. The price of lemons has gone up nearly 50 percent.
MATTINGLY: A recent survey found Americans typically made 59 trips to the grocery in a single year, but it takes just one trip to the polls to make consumer dissatisfaction felt in the White House.
Is this going to have an effect on how you vote in November?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes, very much so.
MATTINGLY (voice-over): And with no end in sight to higher food prices, price-conscious shoppers tell me they will be watching to see which candidate is paying attention to what they are paying.
David Mattingly, CNN, Atlanta.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: So, as you shell out more and more money for food, you're probably wondering just what the candidates plan to do about the soaring cost of living, and can they do anything about it? What voter anger over the economy could mean for the campaign -- straight ahead.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: We have seen how worried you are about the rising price of food and gas. Making ends meet is issue number one for voters right now. So, how will that impact the campaign now and in November?
Let's bring back our political panel. Michael Crowley is the senior editor of "The New Republic," Tara Wall, deputy editorial page editor of "The Washington Times," and Arianna Huffington, founder and editor in chief of "The Huffington Post" Web site.
Michael, I will start with you.
"The Indianapolis Star," biggest paper in Indiana, endorsed Hillary Clinton today, but at the same time, they have attacked her plan to suspend the gas tax over the summer. And they said -- quote -- "Clinton regrettably has pandered more to voters, particularly on gas prices."
Obama is hitting her hard back on that. He calls it an election- year gimmick. He's got a new ad essentially saying that.
But this is a huge issue with voters. Who wins politically with voters on this?
M. CROWLEY: Well, it will be fascinating, and this is going to be a great test of sort of the substance of politics vs. the sort of imagery, because there are virtually no experts and people who study these issues who say that the gas tax holiday makes substantive sense.
But do voters process that, or do they hear that Hillary Clinton is talking about the pain they're feeling at the pump? Do they take the time to read editorials that explain why the policy doesn't make sense?
The danger for Obama in trying to pick a fight and say she's pandering is that pandering works. That's why politicians do it. And if you think back to 1992, Bill Clinton down in Florida, Paul Tsongas attacks him as the pander bear over Social Security, was outraged that Bill was saying these big promises about Social Security. Clinton won in Florida. Tsongas' pander bear ad attacks flopped. And the question is, can Obama do better this time?
BROWN: Yes.
Arianna, do you agree with that? McCain is taking the same position, too, we should point out, as Hillary is over the gas tax.
HUFFINGTON: Yes, which I think is very interesting, because McCain has to pander on these issues, because the record of the Bush administration that he's so closely aligned to is atrocious on this.
So, in fact, McCain did something today which is creating a lot of ripples. And this is, he made a statement linking the war in Iraq to a need for oil.
BROWN: You know what? I know, Arianna, and I'm going to talk about that coming up in depth with you guys.
HUFFINGTON: OK.
(LAUGHTER)
BROWN: So, I'm going to -- hold that -- hold that thought.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: Go ahead.
HUFFINGTON: OK.
But it's kind of interesting, because it shows that, even on something as important as that, that we will talk about later, he's pandering. So, he's pandering on the holiday, the gas holiday, the tax holiday. He's pandering on oil in the Middle East. So, all those things obviously are weighing on him.
But, in the end, I want to believe that voters will see through the pandering both from John McCain and Hillary Clinton. It's too obvious.
BROWN: Tara, let me go to you on this, because McCain does have an issue here. There are brand-new CNN poll numbers today showing that voters think that both Clinton and Obama will handle the economy better than McCain. They top him, I think, 53 to 42, the economy, issue number one in the election. And he's continuing to struggle with that issue. How is he able -- how will he be able to close that gap?
WALL: Well, I think, first of all, it was -- McCain came out with this gas tax repeal to begin with. And then Hillary Clinton followed suit soon after that.
I think, first of all, listen, we can sit here and talk about whether this is a good idea or not. But what do the American people think? Polling show American people support a gas tax repeal. Relief is relief, regardless of the form it comes in.
Folks going to the gas station are going to be glad that somebody gave them a tank of gas. It may spur them to go on vacation this summer. The point is, it's a short-term relief.
Now, you do have to look beyond that at some of the long-term solutions that are being offered. And, quite frankly, with all the talk, there are only two candidates right now that are talking about a plan. That's Clinton and McCain. And Obama, while he might criticize this as being a gimmick, what plan has he actually offered to address this issue? No one is talking about that. No one is looking into that.
It's easy to call something a gimmick or pandering. They do all pander. But let's talk about long term, drilling and other options that are out there. And, quite frankly, all three of these candidates have been sitting senators for at least two years or more. The Democrats are in control. This has been an issue before today.
BROWN: All right.
WALL: When did they start addressing this themselves as sitting senators?
BROWN: OK. Tara, we have got to take a quick break. Stick around. We have got a lot more to talk about.
Pocketbook issues are not the only ones that voters are thinking about. There is Iraq, for one thing, Arianna mentioned a moment ago. We are going to tell you what John McCain said today about Iraq and oil when we come back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: No blood for oil. Left wing activists have used that slogan for many years to criticize U.S. Middle East policy, including the Iraq war. Well, listen to what Republican John McCain said today in Denver as he talked about the war in Iraq.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R-AZ), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: My friends, I will have an energy policy that we will be talking about which will eliminate our dependence on oil from the Middle East, that will -- that will then prevent us -- that will prevent us from having ever to send our young men and women into conflict again in the Middle East.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: So is John McCain suggesting that the Iraq war was all about oil? We're going to ask our panel now, Michael Crowley, Tara Wall and Arianna Huffington.
And, Tara, you're the Republican in the mix here. What do you think he meant by that in.
WALL: You know, I think he certainly -- he corrected himself afterwards and he was referring to the first Gulf War. And I think that certainly --
BROWN: Why would that be any different? Go ahead.
WALL: Listen, I think, you know, some folks might call it a Freudian slip, what have you. No one -- he has never characterized this war the way that liberals have as it relates to being war for oil. I think everyone knows that and understands that, and he quickly corrected himself. And, you know, I'm sure Democrats will have a great, great fun running this as an ad as they've done with the 100 years, which they grossly mischaracterized. But certainly most folks are chalking this up as a misstatement.
BROWN: Michael, do you think it's a problem sound bite?
M. CROWLEY: Yes, a little bit. I mean, she calls it a Freudian slip. You know, the old definition of a gaffe is when a politician accidentally tells the truth. And there's this thing in this country you can actually come out and say the truth, which is that we care about the Middle East for great measure, for great reason because of the oil there.
But the problem is I don't think McCain wants to get bogged down to arguments about why we went to Iraq because that is a loser of a debate for the Republicans, because very few people think we should have gone and they think the rationale was terrible, and they certainly don't want a Republican candidate saying we did it for oil.
McCain wants to talk about how we can stabilize Iraq, salvage our honor, and have a victory if possible. That's what he wants. He doesn't want to go back to the rationale. It's a big loser for him.
WALL: And he certainly has criticized this administration for its handling of the war. So I mean, you know, he has made no bones about the fact that he has had disagreements with the administration over the war and how he would have likely done things differently.
BROWN: All right. Arianna, let me let you get a piece of this, but I want to ask you because very interesting new poll numbers on Iraq today. Voters clearly want the U.S. to start withdrawing troops, and you would think that would be a huge problem for McCain.
But get this, when voters are asked who they trust more to handle the situation, McCain actually tops Obama 53 to 44, and he tops Clinton 50 to 46. How do you explain that?
HUFFINGTON: I know, absolutely stunning. But let me just quickly say, Campbell, that his statement on sending young men and women to the Middle East for oil is absolutely stunning. There is no explanation, like Freudian slip or gaffe or anything like that that can really deal with it. This is a game-changer to use Hillary Clinton's phrase.
This, combined with all the Sunni/Shia mistakes he made, shows that this man either does not understand what's going on in the Middle East, or is really completely out of touch. So what's happening here is that these are the kind of statements that are going to erode what the American people think about him at the moment in terms of national security.
That the John McCain, the war hero that the American people at the moment still believe in very large numbers, will keep us safe is not the John McCain, the real flesh and blood human being who is running for president. That combined with all the ways in which he's no longer the straight talker I think will make him a much easier candidate to defeat than Democrats think right now.
BROWN: All right.
And guys, Arianna gets the last word tonight, but thank you all for being part of this.
Appreciate it, to Tara and to Michael as well.
WALL: You bet.
BROWN: We are about to take you down on the farm to see the stagecraft behind a Barack Obama campaign event. And here's ahead, it takes pies and a basketball.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: And Hillary Clinton just taking the stage at that big Democratic dinner in Raleigh, North Carolina, we were telling you about a little early. She's speaking there tonight as is Barack Obama. Very rare to see them on the same stage speaking at the same podium, but both lobbying a very important Democratic audience at that dinner.
At this hour, the next step in the Democratic Party's nominating process is under way, and it's not North Carolina or in Indiana. But it's all the way over in the Pacific Ocean in Guam. Yes, Guam. The island is a U.S. territory and it's about 20 minutes before 11:00 on Saturday morning there right now. Even though they're called caucuses that are taking place, it's actually a party-run primary with about 20 polling places and secret ballots that look something like this, I think, we can show you. About 3,000 people are expected to participate except for one community there where folks voted early because they had a festival that was already scheduled for today. So that seemed to be more important.
Guam has eight pledged delegates with half a vote each, plus five superdelegates. So in all, 13 Guam delegates are going to the convention. And this year, as everybody knows by now, every delegate vote counts. The candidates are advertising. They've done Web chats and phone interviews.
Bill Clinton called the Guam radio station this week. The voting wraps up at 6:00 a.m. Eastern time, and CNN will have all the results from Guam.
We have started showing you the stagecraft behind the candidates' photo-ops. And tonight, Ali Velshi is here to take us behind the scenes with Barack Obama. And tonight, it's about rural voters. In Indiana, they are crucial to this election campaign.
Barack Obama is trying to appeal to them -- how?
ALI VELSHI, CNN SENIOR BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: Well, farm. Nothing says rural Indiana more than farm. And you got to wonder when you see these shots, did he just show up there and pull up and see this was a good farm. No.
This is the Evers Family. They're from Union Mills, Indiana. They've been there. In fact, that's the dad right there, Andy Evers. He grew up on this farm, so Barack Obama shows up and the Evers are not actually particularly involved in the Democratic Party. One of their neighbors is connected to them, so the party organizers came in, set this thing, the whole thing up for a day so that it looks really natural. How do you get a natural photo op?
BROWN: How do you?
VELSHI: Well, first of all, you got the candidate. And what is the candidate, getting off the bus, what's he got in his hands? It's hard to see right here, so we're going to give you a better shot.
BROWN: It looks like a couple of pies.
VELSHI: That's exactly what it is. He's got two apple pies. I don't think he baked those. So this is what you start off with.
Now, you're bringing some picnic tables because, you know, you're on the farm, you've got the neighbors all over. We got some picnic tables. We got these folks sitting around the picnic table. You've got photographers there. And what do you do now that you've got everybody? Well, you want to ask them about the issues. You want to show that you're listening. So let's listen in to what they had to say to Barack Obama.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: Anyway, fire away. Who's got the first --
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: While you already talked about health care especially for the elderly, if something catastrophic happens to me right now, I could lose part of the farm.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: Now, look at that shot. What is that in the background? Basketball hoop, because you're in Indiana, Hoosier State. So Barack Obama, who, by the way, as you know, likes to play a game of basketball to chill out, to relax --
BROWN: He's pretty good.
VELSHI: Andy's son, Aaron, likes basketball, too. He apparently spent the night before warming up just in case he was going to get asked to play a game. Not entirely sure whether that was set up ahead of time. But guess what happens next.
BROWN: They had a little pickup team.
VELSHI: Absolutely.
BROWN: All right.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: Since we're on the farm, we'll make a quick game of no horse. We're going to play a game of pig. No, no. You go first.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: He says no horse. We're going to play a game of pig, a game of pickup basketball with Aaron, and it turns out to be a pretty competitive game. And Barack Obama is a good basketball player. They're working it out together, and this is what he says.
It's interesting. He brings the campaign into the game now.
BROWN: Yes.
VELSHI: Listen to what he says about Aaron and the way he plays.
BROWN: Nice shot.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: You know, he's tough. He keeps on coming back. He's like Hillary. (LAUGHTER)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
VELSHI: Listen! I mean, could that have been set up better?
BROWN: And then he thinks one. Yes.
VELSHI: He's tough. He started pulling back like Hillary and then he thinks one. What's he doing now? What else can you do that's better than that? You autograph the ball.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: Autograph.
VELSHI: To Aaron, from Barack Obama. He says great game.
BROWN: That's the campaign keepsake.
VELSHI: That's absolutely a campaign keepsake.
So that's sort of how it all came together. Is that perfect? Isn't that a perfect scene for Indiana?
BROWN: It is. Whatever happened to those apple pies?
VELSHI: You had to wonder about those two apple pies. We checked into that. The apple pies, they wanted to save them. I don't know what they're saving them for, but they're in the freezer right now.
Take a look at these pies. They're going to get eaten. Maybe we'll see what happens on Tuesday night. But there you go.
BROWN: Well, they'll be taken out in 10 years. Do you like these? These are the apple pies the president gave us.
VELSHI: These are apple pies that Barack Obama, the presidential apple pies...
BROWN: All right.
(CROSSTALK)
VELSHI: ... if that works, or do you remember that guy Barack Obama, he brought us these pies.
BROWN: Whatever happened to him?
I know. Ali Velshi, thanks a lot. Appreciate it.
And there is some other important news today. Severe storms and killer tornadoes. We're going to show you where the bad weather is headed, coming up next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: It's been another terrible stormy day in the middle of the country. Tornadoes have killed at least seven people in Arkansas and caused severe damage in three other states. CNN meteorologist Chad Myers has the very latest for us now.
CHAD MYERS, AMS METEOROLOGIST: Campbell, it all started last night near Tulsa, Oklahoma, south and west of Pawhuska. I was watching it, watched these storms just rotate right from the southwest to the northeast. Actually had a couple of people shooting video of the tornadoes. A lot of chasers in Oklahoma, so it's not unusual to get good tornado video. But this is what they woke up to southwest of Pawhuska. This is not the video we want to wake up to.
That behind you that looks like a steel beam, that was what was left of a mobile home. And this whole area was devastated by tornadoes overnight. North of there, up into -- now, this is up toward Kansas City here. This was supposedly not a tornado, just wind damage. But, boy, just sure looks like it as this storm blew right out -- could have been a microburst, something with winds at least 100 miles per hour there.
Back into Kansas City, more trees on homes, and this happened about 10:00 last night. Now, we're going to move you farther down toward the south and toward the southeast. As we woke up this morning, there was damage in Arkansas and there were fatalities.
At 8:00 in the morning, not a typical time for a severe weather thunderstorm with a tornado right there over Damascus and also over Bird Town, two fatalities there. A 15-year-old girl died in her bed as a tree fell on her house, not knowing whether that was a tornado or wind damage but that was one of the fatalities.
Jim Belles for the National Weather Service out of Memphis on a storm that was tonight from Earle, Arkansas, Campbell, says, and I quote, "It is a miracle that there are no fatalities in this town of Earle. This was an EF-3 tornado, 160-mile-per-hour winds and homes are disintegrated. Yet people still lived through them on the inside of the storms even as the walls collapsed."
Campbell, right now, we have at least five tornadoes still on the ground. Tennessee, Mississippi, almost down to Louisiana. It's going to be a rough night. If you hear or see a storm coming, don't wait for a warning. Take cover immediately in those areas.
BROWN: A very important advice especially right now. Chad Myers, thanks, Chad, appreciate it.
MYERS: You're welcome.
BROWN: When we come back, the Democrat with the most votes, Hillary Clinton says that is her. And she's right, if -- if, if, if you count the popular vote the way she counts it. But most of us don't do that. And we're going to tell you why when we come back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BROWN: Those Democratic Convention delegates and superdelegates will choose the party's presidential nominee in August. And as you just saw, Barack Obama has the support of more delegates than Hillary Clinton. That is one reason why she would rather talk about all the rank and file Democrats who voted for her.
As Joe Johns reports, the way Clinton is counting the popular vote is very unpopular with many Democrats.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
JOE JOHNS, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): What is true and what is not? That is the question with Hillary Clinton's claims that she has more popular votes than Barack Obama. It's critical to her strategy since she hopes to convince superdelegates to support her because she's ahead.
CLINTON: I have received more votes by the people who have voted than anybody else. And I am proud of that.
JOHNS: So, is that true? Well, Barack Obama's campaign says it's not. OK. So, here we go. Clinton and Obama by the numbers.
And by the way, folks, numbers don't lie. The first question is, what's the official count? And for that we turn to CNN's number cruncher, Keating Holland.
KEATING HOLLAND, CNN POLLING DIRECTOR: Both of them have over 14 million votes. It appears that Barack Obama has about 500,000 votes more than Hillary Clinton, but it depends on what you count.
JOHNS: Right, depends on what you count. So let's start with that bottom line. Popular vote, Obama's up by just over 530,000 votes. Got it?
Question two, so how does Hillary Clinton figure she's ahead?
JOHNS (on-camera): It's really very simple. To get there, you have to add in the two states that nobody's figured out how to count so far, Florida and Michigan. Remember those are the states the Democratic Party tried to punish for holding their primaries earlier than the party wanted.
JOHNS (voice-over): And yet, people still voted. The fact is, in Michigan, Clinton's name was on the ballot. Obama's was not. They both were listed in Florida's primary, and Senator Clinton wants both states counted.
CLINTON: How do you as a Democrat expect to win in the fall if we disenfranchise 2.3 million voters who turned out to vote in Florida and Michigan? That makes no sense to me.
JOHNS: What does make sense to the Clinton campaign is the effect of adding those states in. Here's why. If you add in Florida, Obama's lead shrinks to about 230,000 votes. And if you add in Michigan, Hillary Clinton comes out on top by about 90,000 votes. But with Michigan, there's another twist. Rather than vote for Clinton, fully 40 percent of voters checked the uncommitted box. So Clinton's math is a bit fuzzy. Because for her to claim she has more popular votes than Obama, you have to assume that Obama would have completely tanked in Michigan, if he'd been on the ballot.
Call it the truth. Call it the bottom line. On the official tally, and that's the only one that matters, Obama still enjoys a healthy lead with about five million voters left to go to the polls. Joe Johns, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
BROWN: And here's one more bit of fuzzy math. It involves four caucus states -- Iowa, Maine, Nevada and Washington, three of which Obama won. Those states didn't keep count of the popular vote, and Clinton left them out of the equation. But even without those states, Obama is still up by roughly 500,000 votes.
Coming up next, we're going to expose a political dirty trick, a Clinton confidante on YouTube apparently saying something very bad about Indiana voters. But the clip is bogus and he didn't really say it. We're going to explain to you what exactly is going on.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: What you're about to see is not true. Let me repeat. What you are about to see is not true. It is a hoax. And very dirty politics. It is a doctored clip from the film documentary "The War Room" about Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign.
And let me set this up for you. In it, you will see James Carville, George Stephanopoulos and Mickey Kantor. They ran Clinton's '92 campaign. And they're talking about how well Clinton was doing in Indiana, but -- but someone changed the audio and added captions and then posted it on YouTube. It's all over the Web and a lot of people who are watching it will think it's true. It's not.
We're going to say it one more time. It's not. And that's why we're doing this story to look at the anatomy of a hit. We do warn you, it contains offensive language.
Here's the doctored and fraudulent clip. Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Indianans are (EXPLETIVE DELETED and worthless white (EXPLETIVE DELETED)
GEORGE STEPHANOPOULOS, BILL CLINTON'S CAMPAIGN CHAIRMAN: Iowa's done.
JAMES CARVILLE, BILL CLINTON'S CAMPAIGN MANAGER: Iowa's done.
STEPHANOPOULOS: Illinois is a blowout. Indiana we're ahead. Looking good. Pretty good. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Meet Mickey Kantor -- chairman of Clinton- Gore '92, friend of the Clintons since '70s, Sec. of Commerce for Clinton, Adviser to Hillary '08.
MICKEY KANTOR, BILL CLINTON'S CAMPAIGN MANAGER: Look at Indiana.
Wait, wait, look at Indiana. Excuse me. It doesn't matter if we win. Those people are (EXPLETIVE DELETED).
How would you like to be a worthless white (EXPLETIVE DELETED)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Now, remember, what you have just seen and heard is not true. In fact, you can also find the original, the undoctored clip from "The War Room" on YouTube. Here it is.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KANTOR: Excuse me. How would you like to --
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Now, we listened repeatedly to the original DVD version of "The War Room" in our audio booth. And you simply cannot tell what Mickey Kantor is saying. All you hear is the rustling of papers.
This movie has been out for 15 years, but the doctored version only surfaced on the Web today. So why is it a hit job? Because the clip makes it sound like Kantor is degrading Indiana. And Kantor is a Hillary Clinton adviser and it's only four days before the Indiana primary.
I want to take this into our very own "War Room." With us from Washington now, we've got Republican strategist Kevin Madden who is national press secretary for Mitt Romney's campaign, and also Democratic strategist and and former Michigan congressman, David Bonior, and he was campaign manager for John Edwards' campaign. We should mention he has not yet endorsed a candidate.
And David, I don't have to tell you, politics can be dirty business. This certainly isn't the first time a trick like this has been pulled, and it's not going to be the last. So just explain to us how this kind of stuff even happen and how do you figure out who's behind it?
DAVID BONIOR, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: Well, you've got a have a good research team in your campaign and all campaigns at this level have a multiple number of people that do research. You've got to get on facts very quickly. You've got to ascertain the truth.
And then, if you're involved in them, your campaign in some way someone has gone overboard, you have got to be very firm with that person. They have to resign. They have to be fired. There is no reason for this to continue in American politics, and the reverberations if you don't act quickly will be severe. If the other campaign is involved, you now have to call on them to renounce it, you have to act quickly. Quickness is a very important part of this.
One of the things we are proud about in the John Edwards campaign is that we ran an issue-based campaign. And you'll find that in campaigns, Campbell, this one is a good example, when you got one candidate left like John McCain, things will run relatively smoothly. But if you've got three candidates, it will run relatively smoothly because there will be a check.
BROWN: Right.
BONIOR: If you've got two candidates like we have right now in the Democratic primary, you're going to have these things pop up and it's very important to get on them and act quickly.
BROWN: Right.
Kevin, you know, each one of these candidates has examples of stuff like this hurting their campaigns. False rumors of Senator McCain having an illegitimate daughter, and Senator Obama's ties to the Muslim religion. Totally bogus. But what do they need to do to make sure that these rumors don't live on in infamy? I mean, how do you scrub the Web?
KEVIN MADDEN, REPUBLICAN STRATEGIST: Well, you know, Campbell, gone are the days where you could just not pay attention to something like this and figure or assume that it will go away. You have to be so aggressive in making sure that you knock down even the slightest inference of inaccurate information about your candidate. So it may just pop up and it may look like it's just on a little tiny corner of the Web.
But with a viral information world, you have to be very quick where you knock it down, and you make sure that you get the accurate information out there about your candidate. Whoever put out the clip and circulated it around the reporters of the accurate "War Room" clip did that exactly perfect today.
BROWN: All right, guys. We've got to end it there. We're heading off to Larry King now, but we appreciate your time tonight. David Bonior and Kevin Madden, thanks so much for joining us, guys. Really appreciate it.
That does it for us. Have a great weekend, everybody.
"LARRY KING LIVE" starting right now.
