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Campbell Brown
Clinton Wins Big in Puerto Rico; What Does the Win Mean?
Aired June 01, 2008 - 15:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: CNN projects that Hillary Clinton will win the primary in Puerto Rico by wide margin. We make this projection based on our exclusive exit polls that we have been conducting throughout the day in Puerto Rico -- a wide margin victory for Hillary Clinton. We're going to try to get a sense of how wide that will be because as far as Hillary Clinton's campaign is concerned, they will make the case that she is now leading in the popular vote against Barack Obama over all six months or so of these campaigns.
If you add up all the states, all the territories, all the contests, she will have received more votes, now especially since Michigan and Florida, two of the disputed states have been added officially to the tally by the Democratic National Committee's Rules Committee that happened, of course, yesterday.
Hillary Clinton, the projected winner, in Puerto Rico, that is our projection, a winner by a wide margin. Let's walk over to Bill Schneider who's been looking at the exit polls for -- not a huge surprise. She's been very popular with Latino voters throughout the country. She does very well with this group and she has done very well today in Puerto Rico.
SCHNEIDER: She has, indeed and one of the big factors in her victory were voters who thought -- who want Puerto Rico to have closer ties to the rest of the United States. Sixty percent of the voters in Puerto Rico today said they think Puerto Rico should be a state and look at how they voted, 82 to 17 for Clinton over Obama. Those who want Puerto Rico to be a commonwealth, and that was only one third of the voters, split their votes closely between the two candidates, but it was those who want Puerto Rico to be a state that gave Clinton her big victory today in Puerto Rico.
A second factor in her big victory, their view of her husband, President Clinton. Their view of Clinton was overwhelmingly favorable, 83 percent. And among those with a favorable opinion of former president Bill Clinton, she got 78 percent of the vote. She outdrew Obama by nearly four to one, so clearly the popularity of her husband contributed to her big victory today in Puerto Rico.
BLITZER: This will give her some bragging rights, Bill, going forward. Only two more contests left on Tuesday in Montana and South Dakota.
SCHNEIDER: Give her a key argument. If the turnout is big enough and the margin big enough in the end, she will be the undisputed leader in the popular vote and then she will go to those superdelegates and she'll say: I'm ahead in the best measure of Democracy, more people voted for me and suddenly we're talking about the comparison with the 2000 election when more people voted for Al Gore and Democrats were very angry about the fact that Gore didn't become president.
BLITZER: He got a half a million more votes then George W. Bush in 2000, but you know what, he didn't get enough of the Electoral College votes, at least based on the U.S. Supreme Court's decision. He lost Florida and as a result George W. Bush became president. Bill Schneider, thanks very much.
I want to walk back to Anderson Cooper.
You know, Anderson, when I spoke early today with Harold Ickes, the top advisor to Hillary Clinton, he's on the Rules Committee, he made the point that the last time that Democrats selected a nominee who had fewer popular votes, occurred in the Hubert Humphrey/George McGovern battle back in 1972. McGovern got more of the delegates, but he had fewer of the popular votes and wound up loosing in a landslide. Harold Ickes making that point earlier today on LATE EDITION. A point he is trying to make scoring with those still undeclared superdelegates.
COOPER: Again, it's important to point out their definition of popular votes does not include votes from caucus states, also does not include uncommitted voters from Michigan, which were about 40 percent of the votes. So I mean, does Harold Ickes' argument, does it make sense to you?
DONNA: Look, I'm not going to deny Harold Ickes or anyone else their talking points. That's spin. But, the fact remains that in order to secure the nomination, you have to now reach 2,118, which I called yesterday cheating, because we reopened the process to put two more states in, you know, back into the game. We reraised the metric, it's now 2,118. As soon as Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton reach 2,118 we will have a nominee.
Now, if you want to start arguing electability, I heard Leslie talk about women's vote, you know, I hear all of this, you know, all of these different constituency. Obama if he is the nominee will have to do some homework. He will have to reach out to Hillary Clinton's supporters, but also he will continue to have to reach out to Independents and build an electoral coalition that will make him a viable contender against Senator McCain in the fall. He has time to do that.
COOPER: How does Barack Obama reach out? I mean, the level of vitriol, I see it in e-mails all the time now from Hillary Clinton supporters directed not only toward the media, but also just toward Barack Obama. I mean, there is a high level of vitriol, here. How does she reach out?
TOOBIN: I think the answer is issues. There are really big differences on the issues between John McCain and Barack Obama. And Barack Obama's positions are very similar to Hillary Clinton's. I think Barack Obama will have to say to these disaffected Democrats, well, do you want the war in Iraq over? Who do you want appointing justices to the Supreme Court? Those are the arguments, I think, that are going to bring Democrats back to the fold. Not sort of atmospherics, but appeals to peoples' intelligence.
LESLIE: I think one thing too, that people didn't appreciate what happened yesterday, I know that Donna has kind of the inside story of it, is that there was a lot of compromise that went on with the Obama campaign when it came to Michigan and Florida, that they were positioned in such a way that they had the support of the superdelegates, they had the support of the numbers of that body, the committee there, to really push it saying we want 50/50, you know, 50 percent for us, 50 pest for Clinton when it came to Michigan. There was a lot of compromise that happened there and that was in part really reaching out to the Clinton team saying, look, we are going to give you something here, work with us. And that's the kind of -- you know, it's the backroom stuff that's happening. They have a lot of work to do when it comes to very publicly reaching out to those women voters.
TOOBIN: I think the most important number out of Donna's committee meeting yesterday was 19-8, the vote on the Michigan challenge which meant that even some Hillary Clinton supporters had joined Barack Obama's side in saying we want to get this behind them. That's why I think the pert on the way to being mended because signs like that suggest that it is.
COOPER: So, Donna, when Harold Ickes says the process is hijacked yesterday, what do you think?
DONNA: Maybe Harold got more sleep than I did, but what I saw inside the room during our extended lunch break, that's a Democratic way of saying that we had a lot to chew on, was I saw the Hillary campaign and the Obama campaign try to come to a compromise and in the end, we went with the compromise that was presented to us by the Michigan Democratic Party. That was the only compromise that would garner the sufficient number of votes, 1908, that would bring about healing. Now, inside the room, we say a lot of things, you know, at each other, but we also agreed to be civil, we talked about our tone, we talked about our goal to unify the party and quite frankly I was shocked at Harold coming out and directing his anger not just at members of the committee, you know, and I held myself back. I did, I held myself back. My sisters are proud of me because I they thought I could have...
COOPER: You don't have to hold back now.
DONNA: Well no. They said, they told me that I could have done a Lynel, that's a little euphemism in our family, like I could be like my father, but I don't have my Korean medals with me. Because I wanted to, like, show Harold a little bit of his salt and vinegar, but this is bigger than Harold, this is bigger than Donna, this is bigger than Hillary and Obama. It's about the fate of a country and these are two great personalities, but on the other hand this is about the people who are, you know, worried about making ends meet.
So, I think I'm going to stick with the unity plan and help to unify the party and not get in involved in these intramural fights because, Anderson, trust me, I can get into a lot of fights. COOPER: Yeah, I'm sure you can. You said that you were surprised by the tone Harold Ickes' been using. Do you think it was it real? Was it theater?
DONNA: I think it was directed at the Clinton supporters in the room and Clinton supporters, who perhaps...
COOPER: They loved it.
DONNA: Of course. But look, I could have directed some stuff to the Clinton supporters. I could direct stuff to the Obama supporters. This is not about Clinton supporters and Obama supporters. This is about the party and healing the party. We met to try to unify the party. I mentioned yesterday that my mother taught me to play by the rules. I felt uncomfortable to changing the metric from 2026, something we all agreed to, and moving it.
But, I also believed that it was important to send a signal to Michigan and Florida that we would like to see them at the table, we would like to see them in Denver.
TOOBIN: Well, I think it's important to emphasize Harold Ickes' combative statement has not echoed anywhere else. I mean, Wolf had on LATE EDITION today, he had Senator Nelson from Florida. He obviously was not looking for a fight. You have not heard other people, other prominent Hillary Clinton's supporters, you know, the Ed Rendell's, coming -- the Evan Bayh's say we want to go to the convention. That is not picking up steam, that sort of attitude.
COOPER: We're going to take a short break. The headline right now, Hillary Clinton winning Puerto Rico. We're going to be right back. You can watch -- look at the exit polls at cnn.com. We are the only network with exit polls. You'll want to take a look at that, exactly who is voting and why they cast those votes. That's on cnn.com. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
COOPER: Hillary Clinton wins Puerto Rico, the Democratic primary there today by a wide margin. We're getting the numbers that are just coming in, but based on our exit polls, we project Hillary Clinton comfortably sailing to a win in Puerto Rico, today. Critically though, will be how big the turnout is, because she wants to make the point that she has received, over these many months, more of a popular vote than Barack Obama. Puerto Rico could do that precisely for her. We'll watch the turnout. The numbers are just starting to officially be counted in Puerto Rico, right now.
Let's go back to Bill Schneider who's looking at our exclusive exit polls that we've been getting in from Puerto Rico because shows us what's on the minds of the voters in Puerto Rico at least on this day.
SCHNEIDER: And it also shows how enormous a sweep this was for Senator Clinton. She beat Barack Obama in just about every category of the electorate. Take a look. Normally he does better with men. Male voters, 70 percent for Clinton. Female voters also 70 percent. No gender gap. Young voters, they're usually voting for Barack Obama, but here, in Puerto Rico, two thirds of them nearly voted for Hillary Clinton. Older voters, as usual, delivered heavily for Hillary Clinton, 77 percent. Other categories where Obama usually does well, she swept him away.
Voters with a college degree, and other Democratic primaries, they've gone heavily for Obama, here 70 percent for Clinton, about the same among those that don't have a college degree. Low income voters, under, $15,000 usually deliver for Clinton, 71 percent. Income over $50,000, the wealthier in Puerto Rico, still voting for Hillary Clinton.
Every single category, Wolf, every Demographic group across the board, Hillary Clinton made a clean sweep today, in Puerto Rico.
BLITZER: A clean sweep. We'll see how big the turnout is because that's an important factor for her. Thanks, Bill, very much.
And by the way, at cnnpolitics.com we posted all of our exclusive exit poll results over there if you'd like to take a look. It's a good idea to go there, cnnpolitics.com. you can get the exit polls.
These results in Puerto Rico will sway the final outcome of the popular vote in these many months of the contest. Only two more contests remain, Tuesday in South Dakota and Montana, two relatively small states. So, we're going to take a look right now at the various estimates of how Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton have done in terms of the popular vote. We have three scenarios that we have been welcoming at. Popular vote scenario No. 1 includes all the primary results, all the primaries to date. These numbers will be changing as the Puerto Rico numbers start coming in.
All of the Florida votes as cast. Yesterday, the DNC changed the rules and said Florida will count. Hillary Clinton gets al of those Michigan votes that were cast for her as a result of the DNC ruling, yesterday. Barack Obama, as far as this estimate is concerned, we have given them those "uncommitted" Michigan votes, his name was never on the ballot. And we've not included in this first scenario the caucus results because many of those caucuses, the never give us the official numbers of how many people voted and how they voted.
Under this scenario, Hillary Clinton slightly ahead of Barack Obama, 17,271,911 to Obama's 17,155,899, about 120,000-vote differential, if you take a look at that she is slightly ahead under the first scenario.
The second scenario we have included what we included in the first, but we've added in our estimate of where the caucus states -- how they would show up, based on various information, various factors that we have included and under this scenario, Barack Obama is slightly ahead of Hillary Clinton -- 17,839,000 to 17,653,000, about 186,000 or so differential. And the question is, will she overcome that gap in Puerto Rico and be able to claim victory under this second scenario, as well, as far as the popular vote is concerned?
Let's take a look at the third scenario. We've included what we've included in the first two except Barack Obama gets zero Michigan votes, because his name wasn't on the ballot, in other words, uncommitted that we gave him earlier, we have taken away, as far as this scenario is concerned. And we have included all of our estimates of the caucus states, as well. Under this scenario, without the uncommitted votes going to Barack Obama in Michigan, Hillary Clinton is slightly ahead of Barack Obama, by about 50,000 or so -- 17,653,000 for Clinton to 17,601,000 for Barack Obama. But, these numbers are clearly going to change once the numbers start coming from Puerto Rico and as a result of this, perhaps after today she'll be in a stronger position to argue that now that the DNC has changed the rules and has decided to include Michigan and Florida, she actually got more popular votes than Barack Obama, even she doesn't get more of the pledged or superdelegates votes. It's an interesting thing to talk about and you're going to be hearing a lot about this.
I suspect, Anderson, when Hillary Clinton speaks shortly in Puerto Rico, she'll make the case that she's received the most votes since early January, she should be the party's nominee. I suspect when Barack Obama speaks later in the day in South Dakota, he'll make a different case.
COOPER: ...about that at all. Jeff Toobin, what does she have to get, though, in terms of popular vote, to really be able to make this argument? I mean, turnout becomes key.
TOOBIN: She has to win by, I think, more than 200,000 votes in Puerto Rico. But, that assumes that this metric means anything at all and that the superdelegates are interested in hearing about this anymore. Look, there have been 34 million votes cast. They are incredibly close and Wolf went through the various scenarios. There's nothing that could happen in Puerto Rico that will change the fact it is very close between them. So, the only thing that matters is the delegates and that's where her task appears insurmountable.
COOPER: Gloria? Welcome, Gloria Borger.
GLORIA BORGER, SR POLITICAL ANALYST: Thank you, Anderson. This is part of her closing argument that she's making to superdelegates and she would love to have a huge turnout in Puerto Rico, today, so she could get those votes that she says she needs, but in reality, as Jeff was just saying, this is about delegates. And if superdelegates haven't changed their minds now on this argument, which by the way, we have been hearing for quite sometime, because she's included Florida and Michigan in it, they're not likely to change their minds after Puerto Rico. She's got a new ad out now saying, you know: I've 17 million votes, and that's quite an achievement, but it's not gong to get her the nomination nomination.
COOPER: We're going to be talking to Terry McAuliffe from Puerto Rico in a few moments. We're going to take a short break, our coverage continues.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back to the CNN ELECTION CENTER, I'm Wolf Blitzer reporting. We've been conducting exclusive exit polls in Puerto Rico all day, today. We have projected Hillary Clinton as the winner in the Democratic primary in Puerto Rico by a wide margin. We can now report, based on the exit poll, numbers that we estimate the turnout in Puerto Rico will be somewhere between 325,000 and 425,000 voters. We can estimate that based on the exit polls, the exclusive exit poll numbers conducted throughout the day in Puerto Rico.
I want to bring in Terry McAuliffe, right now, he's the chairman of the Clinton Campaign. He's joining us from San Juan. First of all Terry, congratulations on Senator Clinton's win in Puerto Rico.
TERRY MCAULIFFE, CLINTON CAMPAIGN CHAIR: Thank you. Great, thank you. It was another great win.
BLITZER: Is this turnout, assuming it's somewhere between 325,000 and 425,000, what you hoped for? Because I know you were trying to get a huge turnout to pump up the vote so that you would be in a better position to claim she has carried the popular vote throughout all of these many contests.
MCAULIFFE: Well, what we're hoping for is a big win. I've been hoping for 2-1 win. If you get around 400,000 votes, as you know, Wolf, that's more than 90 percent of the 17 caucus states that went on, so it would be a big turnout. This is something they haven't done before. There's nothing else on the ballot. But I think the broader issue for us, A, we win delegates, B, we move up in the popular vote and C, this is 100 percent Hispanic primary. Once again it shows that Hillary Clinton overwhelmingly wins what is a sort of key group for the Democrats that we've got to turn out November 4. If you want to win states like Nevada, you want to win New Mexico, states, if you want to take a challenge to John McCain in Arizona, Ohio, Pennsylvania; you've got to have a huge turnout in the Hispanic community. Hillary's proven once again, here, that she wins it 2-1.
BLITZER: How will she do in Montana and South Dakota on Tuesday? Those are the last two contests remaining.
MCAULIFFE: That's right, we leave here tonight, we're heading to South Dakota. Montana is very tight, I think South Dakota, it has really tightened up, got very close in South Dakota. So, we're optimistic, but at the end of this process, Wolf, what we've been saying for a while, she is ahead. More people voted for her than any candidate ever running for president. B, she easily beats John McCain by probably 100 electoral votes. She, wins the key states of Florida, Ohio, Missouri, Nevada, West Virginia, Kentucky and Arkansas. Today senator Obama doesn't and Hillary does, she wins it so big that she will bring a lot of House members, members of the Senate and lower ticket races, she will help them win in the fall.
BLITZER: But, as important as the popular vote is, the delegate count is what counts.
MCAULIFFE: Yep.
BLITZER: In this matter.
MCAULIFFE: You bet. BLITZER: And she's got a huge uphill struggle to overcome his impressive lead going into these final two contests.
MCAULIFFE: That's right. And as I say, out of 4,400 delegates chosen, I think it'll be under 100 delegates difference. Senator Obama will need superdelegates, we obviously will need more superdelegates. And our argument to these superdelegates is it is so close, she got more votes. Who is it that you best can you believe can beat John McCain on November 4.
And that's the key issue. Today every poll shows Senator Obama losing to Senator McCain, Hillary Clinton easily beating Senator McCain. So, they're going to have to take all of these issues in. You got to rember both of the candidates have run a great race, we've seen about 36 million votes come out, 20 million more than we had in 2004. It's exciting. Both candidates have brought a lot of energy. Now it is who wins the general election? And that's Hillary Clinton.
BLITZER: All right, you not only speak as the chairman of the Hillary Clinton's campaign, but you're a former chairman of the Democratic National Committee.
MCAULIFFE: Right.
BLITZER: Do you associate yourself with those very strong words that Harold Ickes delivered yesterday, repeated today on my show, here on CNN, on LATE EDITION, in which he accused the DNC of hijacking Hillary Clinton's votes or delegates in the state of Michigan and threatening to take this to the Credentials Committee at the -- maybe even at the convention? Is that something you associate yourself with?
MCAULIFFE: Well, first of all, I never want to get in a tight with Harold Ickes. But, let me just say, as the former chairman of this great party, what they did yesterday, Florida was great, everybody -- the delegates were in, they represented the vote. I, for the life of me, cannot figure out what they did in Michigan. The same people who created the problem in Michigan came up with this cockamamie result on formula. What they did is they gave 100 percent of the uncommitted, the uncommitted were on the ballot, Wolf. People voted for uncommitted. Under Rule 12, you can't give those to anybody else. They gave them to Barack Obama, but what I'm in incensed over is four delegates that we won, people went into a voting booth and pulled the lever for Hillary Clinton, they took four of the delegates and just handed them over to Barack Obama. I have never in my life seen this.
This is the Democratic Party, the foundation of democracy and what they did yesterday; you can't explain. And they said, well, that's what Michigan wanted. Michigan created the problem and the same people who did it, said, oh, let's just throw some numbers on a table and see how they come out. So, I support Harold Ickes 100 percent. We'll look at all of our options. Let's let the voting finish. But you know what? This isn't about Hillary Clinton, this is about voting integrity, this is about democracy. And you didn't see democracy in action, yesterday.
BLITZER: So, how serious is this threat to go to the Credentials Committee at the end of June and maybe all the way to Denver?
MCAULIFFE: Well, it is not -- people -- I have heard some of the broadcasts, it's about four delegates. It's a bigger, broader principle. It's also about the idea -- they took uncommitted -- then they -- I find amazing is, Wolf, they said, yesterday, we're going to base some of this on exit poll data. There is not an exit poll in this campaign. I can remember standing in New Hampshire, election night, everybody saying: Hey Terry, you're going to lose by 15 points. None of the exit polls have been right, and you use that to take votes from Hillary Clinton?
Some of those uncommitted voters, Wolf, wanted to go to the convention and vote for Hillary Clinton. They told us that, and they were just summarily rejected. So, we're going to keep our options open. This is a fight for democracy; it is a fight for every vote counts. I'm still incensed about what happened to Al Gore in 2000 when they stole that election and we got to make sure that people feel good about this process, especially in a state like Michigan, a must-win state for the Democrats.
BLITZER: So, are you saying that what happened to Al Gore in 2000 in Florida is happening to Hillary Clinton as a result of the DNC's meeting yesterday involving Michigan?
MCAULIFFE: I am saying to you, let me be clear. They took delegates that a Hillary Clinton won fair and square they went into a polling booth, they voted for Hillary Clinton. They took them away from her based on no formula. They took uncommitted under rule 12 of the DNC. They have to stay uncommitted. And said, you know what, we are going to give them all to Senator Obama. You bet. They stole the votes from Hillary Clinton. It's not fair.
BLITZER: How worried are you about the tone of what you are saying, Harold Icke among other Clinton supporters could endanger party unity going forward against John McCain in November?
MCAULIFFE: Well, there's a broader issue here. I'm sorry, Wolf. This is about democracy. This is about every vote counting. People go in and vote for a candidate. They want that candidate to get that vote. And we got those votes so there's a broader principle. We need to have everybody feel good. We'll all come together but we still have the issues that we have got to get settled. Everybody who looks at this cannot understand you talk to the people who were there. All of the people on the front lawn yesterday at the Marriott. They have no idea how it could happen in Michigan. It makes no sense. We got those delegates. They took them away. I find it -- based on exit data an absolute joke.
The people who moved the primary up are the ones that came up with this formula, they created the problem and now they are trying to get out of it and take our delegates away from us. It is not fair. It is not right but we'll see where we go.
BLITZER: Terry McAuliffe, is the chairman of the Clinton Campaign in Puerto Rico, Terry, thanks very much for joining us.
MCAULIFFE: Wolf, great to be with you. Another great win for Hillary.
BLITZER: All right. Terry McAuliffe is not mincing any words, Anderson. He is not changing Harold Icke's tone at all. You heard those strong comments. I'd be very anxious to hear what Donna thinks about that.
COOPER: That was exactly where I was going to -- Donna Brazile, what about that? Terry McAuliffe saying it was not democracy in action yesterday. Saying that what happened to Al Gore in 2000 is similar to what is happening to Hillary Clinton right now.
BRAZILE: There are no -- I don't want to get into that, Anderson, in terms of 2000. Those wounds are still very deep and I would suspect that we can have that argument for the rest of our lives and tell the American people that no Democratic official purged anyone before they went out to vote. No Democratic official changed the voting precincts before they went out to vote. To get into Florida 2000, then we can get into Florida 2000 but there are no comparisons.
Now, let's talk about what happened yesterday with Michigan. The Florida compromise was easy. What we decided basically was to take the challenge presented by a Florida official and we accepted it because Barack Obama's name was on the ballot and Hillary's name was on the ballot along with others and we apportioned those delegates based on the results. But in Michigan Senator Obama's name was not on the ballot. We had three proposals. A proposal of course by the Clinton campaign which was to use the results of the event that occurred on a day that the Democratic Party didn't sanction it.
Or Senator Obama wanted us to split the delegates 50/50 and there was a third, a compromise proposal. A fair deal sort to speak based on exit polls, based on the write-in candidates and they came up with a deal that they got the entire party and the governor to sign off on and that proposal won the majority of the votes.
Now, that was the best we could do given the flawed process and given the fact that two states decided to openly defy the process and Terry's absolutely right. We went with the proposal that was backed by the Michigan Democratic Party. They may not like it but that proposal won. Now, we had another option. And that was to do nothing. And a week ago, they were accusing us of doing nothing. Now today they're accusing us of doing something that they don't like. This is selective outrage but I love Terry McAuliffe. I love Harold Icke on even days. Because Harold is somebody you have to really love with some honey.
COOPER: You feel like you're reading Dr. Dewayne Guyer, the power of intention. Like you are giving out love.
BRAZILE: I'm trying.
COOPER: Got getting it back.
BRAZILE: Many of my colleagues and I want to congratulate members of the Rules Committee not because we need to pat ourselves on the back but because James Roosevelt, our co-chairs walked into that room saying, hey, guys, we need to come together. We need a solution. We need to bring the party together. And we sat there with good intentions to bring the party together.
COOPER: What about these four delegates? He keeps saying, look, they took four Clinton delegates and handed them over?
BRAZILE: Anderson, you know, I'm in -- this is Sunday. I will give her my delegate if that would tell them to show some love. Show some unity. They can have my vote. I'll cast it for Hillary Clinton. But don't tell me after we have sat down for two days spent the entire week getting e-mails from people who are strangers threatening us if we don't do what they want us to do they're going with John McCain.
We're at the moment now in the Democratic Party that we should come together or we can continue this fight. I'd much rather fight Alex and Leslie back there. Not Hillary. I mean, that's just where I'm at and where the party is, I believe.
COOPER: We're going to take a short break. We are expecting Barack Obama to be appearing in Mitchell, South Dakota, we'll bring you that event live as well and we are expecting more from Hillary Clinton, we will bring you her comments on this day that she has won the primary in Puerto Rico. Be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back to our continuing coverage. Hillary Clinton wins the Democratic primary in Puerto Rico by a wide margin. This from our CNN exclusive exit poll numbers that have come in. Another win for Hillary Clinton. The question, though, is it too little too late? Only two more contests remaining Tuesday in Montana and South Dakota. We'll see what happens from there.
Want to go to Bill Schneider, our senior political analysts to get some more our exclusive exit poll results. We heard Terry McAuliffe say that the exit polls through out this process referring specifically to New Hampshire way wrong and I know you have studied the exit polls as closely as anyone. What can you tell us?
SCHNEIDER: I can you that the exit polls have been pretty accurate in all the primaries so far. Including New Hampshire. The exit polls have been very close to the actual result. Everyone remembers the water loo of the polls in New Hampshire. That wasn't the exit poll. That was preelection polls. The preelection polls in New Hampshire, those taken before primary day back in January; many of them indicated that Barack Obama would win New Hampshire.
In the event on primary day, he actually lost New Hampshire. The exit poll got that right. It was the preelection polls that did not capture the final last-minute swing of a lot of women, particularly older women, who had been undecided. Swung at the last minute to Hillary Clinton and put her over the top.
BLITZER: When we do these exit polls, we have three waves of exit polls and sometimes the media gets the first wave which may be distorted, may not be precise. Takes three waves to get an accurate assessment of what's actually going on as a result. Some confusion about the accuracy of these exit polls. All right. Let's take a look at today's exit polls. Exclusively done for CNN in Puerto Rico. What else are we learning?
SCHNEIDER: Well we are learning one important reason why Clinton did so well in Puerto Rico today. We asked the voters there do you think Hillary Clinton could improve the life, your life here in Puerto Rico. We saw that the economy was the number one issue and they were asked could she actually do something to help you, the answer is overwhelmingly yes, 79 percent to 20 percent thought that if Hillary Clinton wins the nomination and becomes president she could help out the people of Puerto Rico.
Did they feel that way about Barack Obama? And the answer is, not really. Could Obama improve the life of people here in Puerto Rico? They were split down the middle, 50 percent yes, and 49 percent no. So one of the reasons why Hillary Clinton had this big sweep today in Puerto Rico is they saw her as someone who delivers, Clinton delivers. And that was behind her big sweep.
BLITZER: All right. Thanks very much, Bill Schneider, for that. Let's walk back over to Anderson Cooper. I don't know the estimate that we have been given, Anderson; we mentioned this to Terry McAuliffe, a total turnout of 325,000 and 425,000. As Terry McAuliffe really didn't answer it, sounds a little bit lower than what the Clinton folks had hoped in order to get over that popular vote tally.
COOPER: I think it's definitely lower than what they hoped and needed to get over that tally. Is that your understanding, too, Gloria?
BORGER: Yes, I think they would have loved 1.5 million or 2 million if people were excited about it. As McAuliffe mentioned to Wolf there wasn't anything else on the ballot this time so I think that doesn't help bring out the voters. And maybe there was a sense that this didn't matter for much. They don't get to vote in the general as you know so there's not a lot of enthusiasm, although Hillary Clinton has been spending a lot of time in Puerto Rico.
TOOBIN: Let's emphasize that point. I mean, this is an election in a place where the people don't get to vote in November. That's a very odd way to motivate people to go to the polls. It is a gesture of inclusiveness on the part of the Democrats to make -- to allow the opportunity to vote. But it still kind of ridiculous in a way.
COOPER: Could it count in the popular vote?
It is popular vote and they are American citizens so I think it should count but, again, I don't think it's going to persuade the superdelegates or much of anybody else to change their minds.
BORGER: And they waited their turn.
TOOBIN: They did wait their turn. A long time.
BRAZILE: Right. Yes. And their votes will count. Puerto Rico, you know, people talk about Puerto Rico and Guam and America Samoa but we often forget that they're also serving overseas in Iraq and Afghanistan.
COOPER: In disproportionately large numbers.
BRAZILE: Absolutely. I'm glad Senator Clinton campaigned so hard down there in Puerto Rico to win the kind of vote that she'll clearly enjoy tonight.
TOOBIN: Their lives affected by who's president. They live under American control. The idea of giving them a voice in the process makes a certain amount of success.
COOPER: Roland Martin is also standing by via satellite, Roland welcome.
ROLAND MARTIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Good to be here, Anderson.
COOPER: What is your take on what you heard so far?
MARTIN: Obviously, I think it is a huge win for Senator Hillary Clinton but I would take a different view. This is not the one she wanted to win. If you listen to her argument, I think the states on Tuesday are more important because what she keeps saying is that I can win the states in November. Puerto Rico not voting in November that is the argument she has to make.
But also, Terry McAuliffe, he said just a few moments ago in talking to Wolf Blitzer, he said quote, they base it on exit data. It's absolute joke. Talking about the DNC Rules Committee. Well here is the problem in the same interview; Terry McAuliffe used polls to say that Clinton is the better candidate to beat McCain in November.
Now Terry here is the issue, is a poll in one case good and a poll in one case bad? I think where they have a problem. The popular vote issue Anderson they will -- I understand the argument they want to make is to get the popular vote, but the popular vote means nothing. It is a little hard to say popular vote means something now and Electoral College vote's matters in November when in fact delegates matter now just like Electoral College votes matter in November.
COOPER: What about that, Donna?
BRAZILE: I agree with Roland. We use exit polls on the DNC to apportion the number of minorities and others to participate. We use exit polls to determine our affirmative action on the inclusion goals. We use exit polls. They are not the most reliable polls, but clearly the Michigan Democratic Party had to come up with some formula knowing that the ballot itself was not clear. Barack Obama's name was not on it. Look. If Senator Clinton campaign would have come into the room, now you are making me talk about the room. I was trying to forget about it.
COOPER: Talk about the room.
BORGER: You were there.
BRAZILE: Had they come into the room and said, look. We'll take the 73 delegates but, you know, clearly the 55 delegates, the uncommitted, why not give them to Obama? There was no gesture of lets give them to Obama. You know what? Well, we have to assume that uncommitted is uncommitted and maybe Barack Obama --
COOPER: Terry McAuliffe said they voted uncommitted. That was the thing on the ballot, said uncommitted. Can't give them to Obama.
BRAZILE: Harold and they're both correct according to the rule uncommitted is uncommitted. On the other hand we were trying to use the rules to apportion delegates based on a flawed process. And what we couldn't -- they didn't have the votes so we had to go with the compromise that the Michigan Democratic Party offered.
COOPER: That's why these four Clinton delegates were given to Obama according to McAuliffe?
BRAZILE: Well again, if you go back to the flawed process, I know it was an election held but it was an event because it was not sanctioned by the party and Senator Obama's name was not on the ballot and we need a way to come up with a solution. And again, Senator Obama's proposal, 50/50 had the votes. It had the votes.
MARTIN: Anderson, what -- first of all, one of the things we also saw yesterday is we saw the supreme arrogance of Senator Carl Levin basically saying we moved this primary because we wanted to teach you guys a lesson when it cam to Iowa and New Hampshire. The committee frankly had two choices. What they said you know what nothing counts. I have been getting lots of e-mails, reading the blogs from Clinton supporters. And you know what the person to be really angry at is Clinton supporter Governor Jennifer Granholm.
Had they never even signed the law, we wouldn't be where we are now. They would have got it all if she won. You would think they would accept some kind of penalty for this. The committee could have easily said, you violated the law. All Democrats, we are not going to give you anything. You can't just sit here and say we won everything or nothing. They got something out of it because the other option, she would have got zero delegates. This is probably better for them than that option.
BORGER: The question coming out of this I have for Donna really is after years of covering Capitol Hill, the question you always ask is, do you want the issue more than you want the bill? Right? Do you want the issue? Do you want -- did the -- was it your sense that Clinton campaign wanted this issue to take outside the room?
BRAZILE: I think there were some members of her campaign -- some of the superdelegates, my colleagues that wanted us to go on record on two issues. One was the full restoration of those two delegations. And 1380 would have been thrown out the -- I'm sorry. Rule 1380, the rule on timing, Jeff, I'm never going to law school now, that rule --
TOOBIN: We'd be happy to have you.
BRAZILE: The Republicans punished their delegations by splitting them in half. The Democrats, said, no, we will give you your entire delegation and with a half of a vote at this time. That was also a very important gesture that we made. We were trying to come up with a compromise. BORGER: Did they want a rallying cry is what I'm saying for the supporters outside the room.
BRAZILE: Some of the individuals wanted to have a couple of talking points to leave the room with. They walked away with them. You heard from Harold, you heard from others and that's fine. That's politics. But I also have to -- as a member of the committee, you know, I wanted to uphold the rules and but I also wanted to be fair to the 48 states, District of Columbia, as well.
TOOBIN: I think it is worth remembering what got the Democratic Party into this mess. It is the tyranny of New Hampshire and Iowa. New Hampshire and Iowa --
COOPER: Tyranny?
TOOBIN: Tyranny. Absolutely.
COOPER: Goodness.
TOOBIN: They have insisted that they go first. Election after election, they have the most important role. And Carl Levin has led the attempt to say, you know what? Somebody gets a chance. Donna and her colleagues have tried to work around New Hampshire and Iowa but they have clearly made -- those states have said, they're going to go Halloween the year before to stay first. So to continue working around the insanity of having New Hampshire and Iowa first all the time, the Democratic Party tried to push some other states, Nevada and South Carolina into the front but it's only because Iowa and New Hampshire are so irrational and so piggish.
COOPER: I agree.
TOOBIN: That they -- the other attempts --
BORGER: I like New Hampshire.
TOOBIN: No longer vacationing there.
COOPER: No. I think it is outrageous.
TOOBIN: We have to --
COOPER: Roland's a man of exquisite judgment.
We'll come back to you. Back to Wolf Blitzer.
BLITZER: Anderson thanks very much. We are beginning to get the first trickle of numbers now, real numbers coming in for Puerto Rico. Want to share those with the viewers right now. Less than 1 percent of the official numbers are in but Hillary Clinton maintaining this impressive lead, 68 percent to Barack Obama's 32 percent. But take a look. Well, actually, a few hundred votes so far so the numbers are tiny, tiny. But if you take a look at the whole commonwealth, the island of Puerto Rico, you see the light blue, this is where she's maintains her lead so far. No where's the dark blue where Barack Obama would be maintaining a lead?
She is doing very, very well. We projected she would be the winner as a wide margin and as this initial trickle that is coming in. She is leading by a wide, wide margin. We'll see if she wins 2-1. What the exact percentages are and perhaps the campaign how big of a turnout has there been in Puerto Rico today. Remember, CNNpolitics.com is where you can see these numbers come in. You can see all of our exclusive exit poll numbers, the results of the exit polling that's been going on in Puerto Rico throughout today. CNNpolitics.com. Much more of our coverage coming up right here from the CNN Election Center right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Big win in Puerto Rico today for Hillary Clinton. Right now she is ahead. Only a small trickle of the numbers 68 percent to 32 percent. More than a 2-1 advantage for her but once again it is very early. We have projected that she will be the winner by a wide margin once all the votes in Puerto Rico are counted. The question is, is it too little, too late for her? We'll continue to watch that part of the story.
I want to go South Dakota right now. Jim Acosta is on the scene. Barack Obama campaigning there, getting ready to address this rally where you are, Jim. Before you set the scene for us, we have some pictures of the Mitchell Corn Palace in Mitchell, South Dakota. I don't know what it is but I want you to tell me and all of our viewers.
ACOSTA: Wolf, I didn't know what it was until we pulled up earlier today. It is the Mitchell Corn Palace. It stands about three stories above us just a stone's throw of where I'm standing right now. It is adorned with thousands of cobs of corn of various colors and on the side of this building you can see all sorts of pictures of police officers, firefighters. This is a tribute to working folks. Which sounds more akin to a rally that Hillary Clinton could be holding but this is a rally this Barack Obama is holding here in the middle of downtown Mitchell, South Dakota.
He is doing essentially what candidates do when they are not winning in the primary that is being held on that day, he's holding a rally in the state where the primary is coming up next and that's here in South Dakota. George McGovern, the 1972 presidential candidate that represented the Democrats is on stage right now. He, of course, as you know, Wolf, one of those prominent Democrats just about a month ago who came out and urged Hillary Clinton to drop out of the race so it's interesting to see George McGovern here.
Barack Obama's done very well in these western states. Winning in Washington and Idaho, Wyoming. This is a part of the Democrats' big strategy for the fall; they think they can do well on these mountain west states. And Barack Obama hoping to do that again. He was campaigning in Sioux Falls, South Dakota, earlier this morning.
But more importantly last night what he said I think might be germane to the discussions you have been having. He said we are getting very close to the number that will give us the nomination and we hit that number on Tuesday night, then we'll announce that we have captured this nomination. Essentially is what he's staying there and he made those comments last night in South Dakota indicating that if he has that magic number of 2,118 on Tuesday night he plans to come out in Minnesota and say he is the nominee for the Democratic Party. Wolf.
BLITZER: We heard Terry McAuliffe chairman of the Clinton campaign say earlier right here that the race was tightening in South Dakota so he has some expectations that maybe Hillary Clinton would do better there than earlier polls suggested would be the case. We'll watch that closely. He's getting ready to address that crowd behind you. He'll be speaking there later. Hillary Clinton will be speaking to supporters in Puerto Rico. We'll be sharing those remarks with our viewers. Are you getting a sense from his people, Jim, what the thrust of his remarks are going to be today? What he wants to focus in on?
ACOSTA: If the event that he held just a few hours ago having a pancake breakfast in South Dakota is an indication, he is setting the sights on the fall. You have seen this with Barack Obama over the last couple of weeks where he's turned his sights away from Hillary Clinton and put them on squarely on John McCain. At a pancake breakfast in Sioux Falls, he talked about this new G I. Bill that is being proposed in Congress to enhance some of the benefits of veterans coming back from wars aboard and trying to tie John McCain to George Bush's opposition or planned opposition to extending and enhancing those veterans' benefits. Barack Obama saying that he honors Senator McCain's service and doesn't understand why he aligns himself with President Bush on that issue.
BLITZER: He has a favorite son, South Dakota, Democrats supporting him including Tom Daschle. Who's still very popular among Democrats in South Dakota. I assume all of that is going to be -- all of that's going to be showcased by Barack Obama in terms of getting these votes from South Dakota Democrats on Tuesday.
ACOSTA: That's right. A lot of Democrats are still smarting from when John Thune defeated Tom Daschle in this state and Senator Daschle was one of those early prominent Democrats to come to Barack Obama, big western Democrats to come to Barack Obama's side as these primaries and caucuses were unfolding earlier this year and that's a prominent supporter. Also Barack Obama has the support of the current senator in the state, Tim Johnson. So Senator Obama's wrapped up some big endorsements in this state and he is certainly leading in that respect.
Over in Montana which will, you know, essentially end -- be the finish line for these primaries, if polls close an hour later on Tuesday night -- no big endorsements there for Barack Obama.
