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Barack Obama on Defensive Over Iraq; Afghanistan: The Forgotten War?; President Bush Decides to Attend Opening Olympics Ceremony
Aired July 03, 2008 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
ERICA HILL, CNN ANCHOR: Tonight, Barack Obama on the defensive over Iraq. He now says he may refine his plan to pull out most U.S. forces within 16 months. And he tried several times today to explain what that means. As always, we will give you the real story here, no bias, no bull.
Iraq is not the deadliest front in the war on terror anymore, though. Afghanistan, the war everybody seemingly forget, now the war we can't afford to ignore.
And now that John McCain is shaking up his campaign, insiders tell us you can expect to see more big changes as soon as next week.
But we begin tonight with Barack Obama's scramble to put out a firestorm over his signature issue, his pledge to get out of Iraq and to get out fast.
Jessica Yellin has been watching. She joins us tonight live from Washington.
Jessica, really pressed on this today. And it took him more than one news conference to clarify, which is not exactly the norm for a candidate.
JESSICA YELLIN, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: No, it's not, Erica.
It really was unusual, a do-over press conference from Barack Obama. He held it to back down mounting questions about whether he is backing away from his pledge to withdraw combat troops from Iraq within 16 months of taking office.
Now, earlier in the day, he had told reporters that he might -- quote -- "refine his policies" after he visits Iraq this summer. And that brought about a deluge of inquires about whether he doing an about-face on the central promise of his campaign. The pressure apparently became so intense that he decided to face reporters for a second time this afternoon.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I have also said that I will be deliberate and careful in how we got out, that I would bring our troops home at a pace of one to two brigades per month, and, at that pace, we would have the combat troops out in 16 months. That position has not changed. I have not equivocated on that position. I am not searching for maneuvering room with respect to that position.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
YELLIN: Now, Erica, I will tell you that, for the last two days, his campaign staff has been calling me and other reporters, insisting that he's not changing position.
And this is really crucial for Obama, not just because Iraq policy is central to his campaign but because he's supposed to be the candidate of real integrity. And he cannot be seen as changing positions on such a big issue -- Erica.
HILL: So, then he is pledging, just to clarify, Jessica, that he is going to stick to that timetable of getting troops out of Iraq within 16 months?
YELLIN: Right, good question.
Well, the one area he showed some wiggle room was when he was asked point-blank whether he would commit to keeping that 16-month timetable. He said any good commander in chief listens to their generals.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: As commander in chief, I would always reserve the right to do what's best in America's national interests.
And if it turned out, for example, that we had to, in certain months, slow the pace because of the safety of American troops, in terms of getting combat troops out, of course we would take that into account. I would be a poor commander in chief if I didn't take facts on the ground into account.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
YELLIN: But, Erica, time and again, he made it clear that his mission is to get those troops out.
HILL: Jessica, though, Republicans, of course, are not going to let this one go, quickly retaliating today, calling him a flip- flopper. Were today's press conferences enough to put out those fires, those claims?
YELLIN: Well, not in the view of the McCain campaign.
I will tell you, they issued a statement saying today that Barack Obama is -- quote -- "reversing the position, proving once again that his words do not matter."
They say, "Now that Barack Obama has changed course and proven his past positions to be just empty words, we would like to congratulate him for accepting John McCain's principled stand." Clearly, they're not going to let this one go -- Erica.
HILL: All right, that is for sure. And we know you will stay on top of it.
Jessica, thanks.
So, is Barack Obama at this point being consistent? Or are his messages about Iraq suddenly mixed messages?
Well, let's see how they sound to the finely tuned ears of tonight's first panel.
Joining us here in the studio, CNN correspondent Michael Ware, who, of course, is usually stationed in Baghdad, but making one of his rare trips stateside. In Washington tonight, cliff May, a former communications director for the Republican National Committee. He is now president of the foundation for the Defense of the Democracies, which was founded shortly after 9/11 to fight the ideologies that lead to terrorism. And nationally syndicated radio talk show host Ed Schultz joining us from Fargo, North Dakota.
He is also an Obama supporter and interviewed the senator today.
Cliff, I want to start with you.
Barack Obama insisting he hasn't changed his position here. He's still going pull troops out within 16 months. He's simply refining his position, basically saying, hey, look, you know what? I have learned more.
Isn't that what you want in a leader?
CLIFF MAY, PRESIDENT, FOUNDATION FOR THE DEFENSE OF DEMOCRACIES: Yes, exactly, I do.
The facts have changed in Iraq. And if he recognizes that and is adjusting his position, I think he deserves not criticism, but praise. An inflexible timetable for leaving would be disastrous. It is very important that we not be defeated in Iraq by al Qaeda or by the Iranian-backed militias.
And if Obama is saying, I'm going listen to my generals, I'm going to sustain the progress that we have achieved there, I'm going to see that, when we leave Iraq, we do so in a way that the Iraqi government, the defense forces can defend themselves against our common enemies, I think he should only be praised for that.
HILL: Ed, as an Obama supporter, this is really a point of contention for a lot of Obama supporters. This is why they are backing the candidate, because they want out of Iraq.
If, all of a sudden, he decides, you know what, we can't do it the way I initially thought we could -- you spoke to him today -- how would you look at him? Would you still support him? Would you say, you know what, he's being pragmatic; he's looking at the intelligence, or is he, in your mind, a flip-flopper, who you can't get behind anymore?
ED SCHULTZ, RADIO TALK SHOW HOST: I thought he was very clear today, Erica, on his position.
It's interesting how the media is having a hard time figuring out what he really means on Iraq. Today, when he spoke to the veterans in Fargo, North Dakota, he was very clear that he's going change policy in Iraq. He's going to draw down immediately. And it's going to continue with a complete assessment of the situation. He's going to withdraw very responsibly.
Now, none of the people in Fargo today had problem understanding. I When I interviewed Barack Obama, I told him. I said, look, they're trying to mix up your position on this. Then he comes out and calls another press conference. And I sensed a real air of frustration on the part of the senator today. He thinks this is some what manufactured by the McCain campaign.
HILL: Cliff, is this manufactured, real quickly?
MAY: Look, there are those who are going be angry on the left if he has actually moved his position and now is saying, I'm not going to have an inflexible timetable. I'm going to make sure we sustain the achievements that the Petraeus mission and the so-called surge has managed to accomplish.
I think it's sort of frivolous to talk about it in terms of flip- flopping. This is a war. It is a real war. And what's more, this is the most consequential front in the global war we're fighting. Al Qaeda says that. Ayman al-Zawahri and Osama bin Laden say that. We shouldn't use this as a political football.
It is very important that what we have spent in blood and treasure not be wasted because somebody has an ideological or dogmatic view that we have to get out in so many months.
To the extent he has moved, I think that's praise-worthy. And it means he is understanding what has been accomplished over the past year.
HILL: OK. He's understanding that.
But do we all understand what is really happening on the ground?
Michael Ware, you're there. You're in Iraq. Would a 16-month timetable be based in reality? Is it even possible?
WARE: Well, I will just comment on the first part of your question, no, you guys have no idea what's going on.
And people -- pundits sitting in the beltway haven't got a clue. Now, anyone who says that America is avoiding defeat has, like, missed the point. Defeat is already on the cusp. Iran already has the momentum in this war.
And, on the flip side, if the Democrats want to say that you can pull out without America paying an enormous price strategically, then they're deluding themselves.
Both sides in this argument are operating under misconceptions, if not absolute delusion.
HILL: So, will they be able to come back from those delusions, the question?
We're going to continue to discuss this in just a second. We have to take a quick break.
Barack Obama, though, as we know, as we just heard, blaming the McCain campaign for starting these Iraq problems. So, is that the case, or is it perhaps self-inflicted? Do both candidates need to better understand the situation there?
Then, later, the front line in the war on terror may not be where you think. And just who is winning that war anyway? Find out here in the ELECTION CENTER.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: I think what's happened is that the McCain campaign primed the pump with the press to suggest that we somehow we were changing our policy, when we hadn't.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HILL: You heard it there, Barack Obama blaming the McCain camp today for his perception problems with Iraq. But is any of that going to help him with the voters?
Back now to talk about it with us, Michael Ware, Cliff May, and Ed Schultz.
And, Michael, I want to go back to you, because we were talking about the situation on the ground in Iraq. You say neither one of them gets it. As we know, Barack Obama is planning a trip in the near future to Iraq. When he's there on the ground there, what will he see?
MICHAEL WARE, CNN CORRESPONDENT: He will see a very sanitized, very skewed version of the reality on the ground. And that's just a fact of life.
I mean, even General Petraeus -- General Petraeus is a great commander. And I have known him for several years now. I have nothing but respect for him. But from the American grunt on the street to his platoon commander, company commander, battalion commander, all the way up the chain, they're all divorced from the reality of Iraq.
HILL: Is that because of the safety issue, though?
WARE: Well, when a man in uniform enters your house with a tank behind him, do you think you are going express your real feelings?
Now, it's much different when say someone with the luxury of a journalist can slip in there. We get to hear people speak much more freely when the foreign forces are not around. So, often, it's very hard for them to get a true gauge of the Iraqi -- I remember when al Qaeda first arrived in Iraq, and the military was months and months and months behind. So, you can only learn what the military knows.
HILL: So, he can learn -- but that would still be something. One would say, especially from the other side, hey, it's good to get him there.
WARE: Right. All credit to him. He has to go. Politically and militarily, he has to go.
(CROSSTALK)
HILL: And, Cliff, this is going to be -- obviously, he's not your guy, Cliff, but John McCain has been there a few times, the first time for Obama going. Is that going to add a little credibility to him?
MAY: I think it will if he goes over there and ask questions.
Michael is right. As a candidate, he's going be a bit in a bubble. But he can talk to a lot of the troops. He can talk to Iraqis. He can learn something. He hasn't served in uniform himself. It will help. Certainly, to have not been there in as long as he has and to say, I'm going to take command of all the armed fores and not to know the battlefields at all on which they are fighting would be a -- would be difficult for him.
So, he should go. I think he will go. He will talk to Petraeus. And I think he will adjust his position. Will that hurt him on the far left? To some extent, yes. But it probably will bring him some credibility from people in the middle who would like us to leave Iraq, but do not want us to leave with our tail between our legs or in disgrace or defeat, ceding a principal battlefield in the heart of the Arab Middle East to either al Qaeda or to Iran.
HILL: But, Ed, you even said today, in terms of losing voters, that a lot of your listeners in Fargo were OK with what he has been saying now. So, is he going lose that many people from that far left base if he decides to maybe change that timetable a little?
SCHULTZ: Well, let me point out that people on the far left want to win the war on terror as well. We want to fight terrorism, but we want to fight it where it is.
And that's why I asked directly Barack Obama today, are you in favor of sending more troops into Afghanistan? He said unequivocally, yes. Barack Obama told me today face to face that he said he will send more troops and he's in favor of more troops going into Afghanistan.
It's not a question of whether you want to fight terrorists and rub out those who hit us on 9/11. It's where we're doing it. What we're doing in Iraq is depleting our resources. Barack Obama was very clear about that today. I don't know where this miscommunication is coming from. I think it's the McCain camp. So does the Obama camp. I think it's this Schmidt guy, his first day on the job, doing a pretty good job for McCain.
(LAUGHTER)
HILL: I guess he chose the right guy, then, huh, if you're McCain.
Ed, Cliff, Michael, stay right there, because, Ed, you brought it up, Afghanistan. While everyone is arguing what about to do in Iraq, the situation in Afghanistan sliding out of control. Is it time to shift now America's focus to Afghanistan? We will take a look at that.
Also, just how important is it now to find Osama bin Laden in this equation? -- all that and more when we come back -- right here in THE SITUATION ROOM.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HILL: We know you're getting ready for your July 4 holiday. And that got all of us around here thinking about freedom, specifically, freedom, from fear. The fear of terrorism is at its lowest point since the 9/11 attacks, according to a new CNN/Opinion Research Corporation poll.
Only 35 percent of those questioned think an act of terror in the U.S. is likely in the next few weeks. Sixty-five percent say a new terror attack is unlikely.
For years, Iraq has really been considered the front line in the war on terrorism. Tonight, though, an important new warning on the table. Afghanistan, the war's original front line, needs our attention again, and needs it fast.
Here's David Mattingly.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DAVID MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): The war the U.S. can't afford to lose may be the war it can't afford to fight. U.S. and allied troops killed in Afghanistan spiked to a seven-year high. Now two months running, it's bloodier than Iraq. U.S. Joint Chief Chairman Michael Mullen says it's a matter of too many fronts and not enough troops.
ADMIRAL MICHAEL MULLEN, JOINTS CHIEFS CHAIRMAN: What we're going through right now is an ability to, in almost every single case, win from the combat standpoint, but not unlike the insurgency in Iraq, we don't have enough troops there to hold. And that is key, clearly, to the future of being able to succeed in Afghanistan.
MATTINGLY (voice-over): Forty-six U.S. and allied troops were killed just in June, the deadliest month for allied personnel since attacking the Taliban in 2001. Experts say the new Taliban is driven by leaders hiding safely in Pakistan, funded by the home-grown illegal opium trade in Afghanistan, and adopting suicide tactics used by al Qaeda in Iraq.
MULLEN: I am and have been for some time now deeply troubled by the increasing violence there. The Taliban and their supporters have without question grown more effective and more aggressive in recent weeks, as the casualty figures clearly demonstrate.
MATTINGLY: Maybe even more troubling, casualties in Afghanistan demonstrate how stretched U.S. forces are. Moving terror in Iraq to fight the Taliban elsewhere could jeopardize hard-fought progress. The Pentagon will extend the tours of 2,200 Marines already in Afghanistan.
Mullen says it could be months before the U.S. could move more.
WARE: You can pull them out of Iraq, if you like, and send them to Afghanistan, as long as your prepared to pay the price in terms of American strategic interests.
MARTIN: And the winner of that battle would be Iran, emboldened to spread influence without the fear of a full-on military response. It would be a new front Mullen says the U.S. would find very stressful, more than enough reason for the back-burner fight in Afghanistan to again be front and center.
David Mattingly, CNN, New York.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HILL: Joining me now from Washington, CNN national security analyst Peter Bergen, who interviewed bin Laden for CNN back in 1997. He's the authors of books about him and al Qaeda. And his recent article in the latest issue of "TIME" magazine explains why Osama bin Laden may still matter.
We're going to get to that question, Peter. But I want to, coming off of David's story there, al Qaeda and the Taliban, as we know, really ramping up in Afghanistan, the coalition deaths in that country greater than in Iraq, even though there are far more troops in Iraq. You have said it's the very nature of Afghanistan as country that makes it more of a challenge to fight the war on terror there. How so?
PETER BERGEN, CNN TERRORISM ANALYST: Well, Afghanistan is a third of a size larger than Iraq. It has a much larger population, six million more Afghans than Iraqis.
Topographically, of course, it's very different. Iraq is largely desert, whereas Afghanistan is quite a mountainous -- has many mountainous regions. So, it's a perfect place to wage guerrilla warfare.
And using classic counterinsurgency measures, you would have something like 750,000 security personnel, both Afghan and coalition, to basically manage a situation in Iraq. Right now, in fact, you have something like 70,000 members of the Afghan army, 80,000 members of the Afghan police, and 60,000 U.S. and NATO troops. So, there's just not enough people by any kind of standard to really maintain order and security in the country.
HILL: So, then, seven years on, when you look at the progress that has been made in terms of the fight against al Qaeda, where do we stand?
BERGEN: Well, I think the national intelligence assessment of July 2007 speaks for itself. By the collective assessment of 16 American intelligence agencies, al Qaeda has resurged and regrouped in the tribal areas along the Afghan-Pakistan border. Its leadership is protected. Its operational lieutenants are protected. And it's able to conduct operations in other countries.
So, it's -- obviously, that is not a particularly good result.
HILL: No, the picture is actually pretty bleak, is the one that you point.
The chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff has said, look, we need -- absolutely need more troops in Afghanistan, but there just aren't any more to give.
So, when you look at a situation like that, what's going happen in Afghanistan? How bad will it get?
BERGEN: Well, unfortunately, it's already -- as David Mattingly's piece, and as you said earlier in the program, it's obviously not good right now.
The Taliban is profiting from one of the largest drug bonanzas in history -- 93 percent of the world's heroin and opium is coming our of Afghanistan. The Taliban is profiting from that.
And so this situation is likely to get worse before it gets better. There's also a problem with NATO. NATO is a fractious coalition of 26 countries. And many of them have different aims and will have caveats about what they can and can't do in Afghanistan. So this is not going be something that is easily rectified.
There are, I think, some -- we have some positive developments on the horizon. General Petraeus, who Mike Ware was talking about earlier, is going take over CENTCOM, if he's successfully nominated, which I'm sure he will be. And he will effectively take control of the wars in both Iraq and Afghanistan. And I would anticipate that that would perhaps bring a shift in strategy and Afghanistan and Pakistan, but, clearly, one is needed.
HILL: And we can all hope for that.
Your latest article for "TIME" magazine, as we mentioned, talks about, does Osama bin Laden still matter? Does he at this point? Is he the mastermind anymore? BERGEN: Yes, he's providing broad strategic advice to al Qaeda, to like-minded jihadi groups around the world. And he continues to release videotapes and audiotapes.
And I can assure you that he will release a videotape in the run- up to the American election, which is going to quite an interesting moment, because, when that videotape comes out a few days before the election, as I anticipate it will, as it did before the last election, both campaigns, the Obama campaign and the McCain campaign, will have to have some sort of strategy to know what to say.
Here we are, seven years later. This guy is still on the loose. This is under a Republican administration. That's going to be a problem for the McCain campaign.
On the other hand, the Republican Party is supposed to be better on the war on terror. And that may play well for the McCain camp. But I can assure you that I think both camps will be planning for this, because it was a surprise last time, but not a surprise this time.
HILL: Definitely won't be.
Peter Bergen, always a pleasure. Thanks.
BERGEN: Thank you.
HILL: Just ahead, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff says, as we mentioned, we do need more troops to fight in Afghanistan. But if there are only enough troops to fight one war, which one should it be? That question when we come back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
MULLEN: I don't have troops I can reach for or brigades I can reach to send into Afghanistan until I have a reduced requirement in Iraq.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HILL: But with those troops stretched so thin in the region, as you just heard Admiral Mullen say, should we maybe be moving some of them from Iraq to Afghanistan?
Back with us now, our panel, Michael Ware, Cliff May, and Ed Schultz.
The Obama campaign really jumped on those comments from Admiral Mullen today, saying, look, this is clear. This shows us. This is what Senator Obama's been saying all along, that Iraq is really diverting these needed resources from Afghanistan.
Cliff, is that the case? Is he right?
MAY: This is one war, and we have more than one front, a front in Iraq and a front in Afghanistan.
And we don't want to lose on any of those fronts. Think of World War II, where we had troops committed in Europe, troops committed in Asia, troops committed in North Africa. You don't want to lose on any of your fronts.
Two things. One is, we need a larger military than we have right now to fight these prolonged, low-intensity conflict. Second, NATO has not acquitted itself very well at all. I have talked with a lot of Afghan diplomats and officials recently, and they are very disappointed that NATO doesn't seem to be up for the fight. And, so, the Americans have to do it.
And, third, what was talked about before is very important. The Taliban and al Qaeda has based itself across the border from Afghanistan and Pakistan, where it is very difficult for U.S. troops or NATO troops to penetrate and get at their bases.
HILL: Ed, can you -- can that situation be rectified? Can you get people to come together, then, and work towards a solution?
SCHULTZ: Well, I think it's interesting. Mr. May just told us what a failure George W. Bush is. We don't have allies. We don't have enough equipment. We don't have enough troops. And we have got a manmade issue in Iraq that we created because we invaded them.
The fact is, the fight is in Afghanistan. You can't do it with 32,000 troops. That's what Obama has been saying all along.
(CROSSTALK)
MAY: Can I respond to that very quickly, Erica?
HILL: Sure.
MAY: Look, to Ed, everything is political. And he doesn't seem to understand this is a real and a consequential war.
HILL: No, it's not political. No, it's not. You're trying to say that Barack Obama doesn't want to fight terrorism.
(CROSSTALK)
HILL: Hey, guys, one at a time. One at a time.
(CROSSTALK)
SCHULTZ: That is not true.
MAY: Ed, I didn't say anything of the kind. You know -- and maybe you don't know that, but I didn't.
What I am saying is very clear. That strategically, Iraq is vitally important and it's the most important battle we're fighting. But I would hate to see us lose. I'd hate to see us lose. It's the heart of the Arab Middle East. It's oil rich. It's right there in the center. Afghanistan...
HILL: You know what, we're tight on time, so I've got to cut you off there. Ed, you're disagreeing, you're saying that Iraq is not the most important battle there.
SCHULTZ: It is not. It is not the most important battle. The most important battle is in Afghanistan. We've got to go after al Qaeda. Those are the people that hit us on September 11th and Barack Obama is willing to do it.
HILL: So Michael, what do you then? If you have to choose between troops in Afghanistan, troops in Iraq, because clearly there are not enough troops to cover both. Which one? Who wins?
WARE: Well, you go after the biggest enemy. And that's Iran. Iran is absolutely kicking your ass right now. Al Qaeda is always going be a threat. They're always going be a pestering, dangerous nuisance. But they're never going be the strategic threat that Iran is.
HILL: Both President Bush and Admiral Mullen have said, both of them saying yesterday look, we want to do Iran. We want to go after Iran, but with diplomacy. That's the way to do it.
WARE: Absolutely.
HILL: So if they're looking at those battles then - if you have to choose between Iraq and Afghanistan, is there one that gets the troop over the other? Is there one battle that is in fact more important?
WARE: Well, no, they're not because basically, you've got your adversaries are fighting you across many theaters. Afghanistan and Iraq are theaters for both al Qaeda and Iran. And they're both making headway in this both those theaters. Because you don't have the troops, you don't have the mandate. And these wars have not been fought properly from the beginning. And your allies are not standing up because quite simply, it's not in their interests.
So really, you're damned is you do and you're damned if you don't. So that's why you've turned to Britain to escalate their war in Iraq as a stop gap measure. But the real war that you've got right now certainly in Iraq is with Iran. And Iran is now playing again in Afghanistan. That's your real dilemma.
HILL: And that I guess is going to be dilemma for whoever wins in November.
WARE: Oh, yes.
HILL: Michael Ware, Cliff May, Ed Schultz, I appreciate it gentlemen.
In just a moment, details of an eye-opening government investigation about snooping of celebrity passports records. Plus an update on those hostages rescued from Colombian rebels. I'll speak with a former hostage. Find out just what's happening. What is going through their minds today, the first day they see their families? And what was it like for five years?
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HILL: Still to come in the ELECTION CENTER, re-inventing John McCain. We'll look at the Republican campaign makeover in just a few minutes.
But first, Ted Rowlands joins us with tonight's briefing. Hey, Ted.
TED ROWLANDS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Erica, the three Americans held hostage by leftist Colombian rebels are in good shape tonight. Army doctors say they're healthy and in good spirits. Marc Gonsalves, Thomas Howes and Keith Stansell were flown to San Antonio, Texas for family reunions and medical exams. Rebels captured the military contractors after their drug surveillance plane crashed five years ago. Another hostage, former Colombian presidential candidate Ingrid Betancourt reunited with her children. They grew up considerably during her six years of captivity.
CNN's national poll of polls now shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by six points, 48 to 42 percent. Last week, Obama led by five points.
President Bush will attend opening ceremonies of the Summer Olympics in Beijing. Some world leaders plan to skip the event to protest China's security crackdown in Tibet. President Bush also plans to visit South Korea and Thailand during next month's trip.
And those passport snoops may have been nosier than we first thought. The State Department now says federal workers looked into the passport records of 127 celebrities, pro athletes and politicians during a four-year period. Investigators won't name names. The Feds want to know if the snooping was legitimate. Unclear what legitimate snooping may have gone on. We'll have to wait and see.
HILL: Yes, I don't know if there. I wonder if there is such a thing. All right Ted, thanks.
Both oil and gas setting new record highs again today. The national average at the pump right about $4.10 a gallon. Oil hit $145 a barrel for the first time. But, it could get worse. It turns out it could get much worse.
Tomorrow night, the CNN Special Investigations Unit is going to explore the vulnerability of the world's oil supply. It is a serious reality check. Be sure to check in for "We Were Warned: Out of Gas." That's right here, tomorrow night at 8:00 Eastern.
Big changes in store for John McCain's presidential campaign. Up next, the new people in charge tell us what to look for and when they're going to get going. This is ELECTION CENTER. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HILL: This weekend, the big makeover begins for the McCain campaign. And there is a new man running the show and campaign managers have a major goal: keep the candidate focused.
CNN's Dana Bash tells us just who is in charge and what's next for the Republicans.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
DANA BASH, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT (voice-over): OK. So there's a new guy at the helm of the McCain operation. What's going to change?
First, McCain aides promise a makeover. Not his outfits, his events.
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R-AZ), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: This is indeed a change election.
BASH: Chastened by the optics of McCain's now infamous green screen speech last month, former television producer and Bush veteran Greg Jenkins is onboard for a visual revamp. For example, when McCain kicks off a jobs tour next week and talks economics in battlegrounds like Ohio, we're told he will appear with families. Sounds like Campaign 101, but until now, there was a lot of McCain and a teleprompter.
MCCAIN: Leaders, lenders - lenders who initiate loans.
BASH: CNN is also told there will now be what a senior aide calls better "synchronicity" between the message McCain is delivering and where he delivers it. That after blowback for going to Houston, oil country, to say this...
MCCAIN: I'm a believer in the technologies that one day will free us from oil entirely.
BASH: Some cosmetic changes are already up and running. Straight Talk Airways took flight this week. Inside, a TV-friendly cabin for the candidate who revels in banter with reporters. McCain used to appear airborne in unforgiving light that made supporters cringe.
Still, there is a lot of worry in GOP circles that one of the biggest problems may be hard to change, that the candidate himself lacks discipline. Several associates tell CNN they worry McCain's "Straight Talk" sessions with reporters, his free wheeling style lead to off-message distractions, like the time he stepped on a major speech in Annapolis by telling reporters minutes later on his bus about a list he has for his running mate.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Can you just give a sense of how many names are on there, how far in the vetting process you've gotten?
MCCAIN: I think it's like 20. BASH: But McCain won't give those sessions up. They are, he believes, key to who he is.
SARA TAYLOR, FMR. WHITE HOUSE POLITICAL DIRECTOR: One of his strengths is that, you know, people view him as somebody who's a true independent. That has impacts in a campaign. It's a challenge many candidates face. They like to run their own campaign.
BASH: In McCain's case, that's what one source familiar with his style called "scattershot."
(on camera): Now, others simply call McCain unorthodox and say he is who he is. Organization and structure, not his thing. But that doesn't make it easy to stay on message.
Dana Bash, CNN, Washington.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HILL: This isn't the first time McCain has been forced to do an extreme makeover, but the question is, will this one take? And perhaps most importantly, will the voters buy it?
Joining me now, Democratic strategist and CNN political contributor Paul Begala. Mark Halperin, "Time" magazine senior political analyst and Leslie Sanchez, Republican strategist, also a CNN contributor.
Leslie, I want to begin with you. McCain's message or lack thereof is really the issue here. How do you go four months as a presumptive nominee -- nothing else is going on, and you end up at this point with no message?
LESLIE SANCHEZ, CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: I would call it distinctly different. I think the fact that those two are essentially tied in the polls right now and that essentially 80 million people who are going to vote in November are just now starting to pay attention. It's an opportune time for Senator McCain to now have an audience. I don't believe people were really paying attention, and they're really not going to to the extent until after the convention is over.
HILL: But that doesn't the answer of where is your message at this point?
SANCHEZ: I think they're always developing that. I mean, McCain is talking economy. He's talking health care. He's talking about growing and making sure that we are prepared and secure in the future. And I think you're going to see him lay that out, especially next week.
HILL: Paul, when you look at this, do you think the problem here is with the campaign? Is that what was needed, a shakeup or is the problem with the candidate?
PAUL BEGALA, CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: In my business, they call it the dog food problem. Right, you do all the market research, you have the best dog food, chefs come in, you put it in just the right can, but Fido doesn't eat it. And that's the problem here, that the schnauzer is turning his nose away from the product. It's not the packaging. It's not the strategy, it's the content.
Look in the whole history of politics, there's only been two messages. From the first campaign, two cavemen to be the tribal chief. The two messages were stay the course and it's time for a change. McCain is the stay the course candidate. This is a time for a change election and I think that's why he's in so much trouble.
HILL: Leslie Sanchez, but here's the thing. Here's what it boils down to because if you're looking at this as a voter, there's always this thought. And I'll throw this one to you, Mark -- that look, if you can't run a campaign, how are you going to run the White House? When you look at all the changes that have happened in the past year, can McCain pull it off?
MARK HALPERIN, "TIME" MAGAZINE: He can. Look, he's a bad manager. I think part of the reason for this change is substantive. The campaign was too disorganized. They were not driving, as you said, a consistent message.
We'll see if they can do it now. I think the new structure has a chance to do that. The other thing though is they really did need to send a signal to insiders. Sometimes the voters don't matter as much as the insiders. Leslie is right, people aren't paying very much attention now, except for insiders. And amongst Republicans and journalists in the last three weeks, the impression has been that McCain can't win.
There's been a decided lack of respect not just for the campaign structure, but for the candidate himself. That's extraordinarily dangerous. This could restore that and give him a chance to start going out and projecting a message to voters.
HILL: Is this then, because McCain has always said as the underdog, with these changes, could this in fact set him up for another come from behind?
BEGALA: Oh, absolutely. This thing is not over. I think, for what it's worth, not that McCain cares about my strategic advice.
HILL: You never know, Paul.
BEGALA: I know, he watches every night, particularly when you're on, Erica. He's doing a smart thing. Nothing against the guys that are getting shoved aside and I've been in and out of different campaigns most of my adult life.
But Leslie makes a good point. He's a guy who re-elected a Republican governor in the biggest, bluest state in America, California in '06, the best Democratic year of the last 20 or 30 years. He's incredibly aggressive, very aggressive. He swings with both fists and hits in both eyes, shall we say. Maybe a little south of that target zone. Very tough. So I think the Obama campaign now, I don't think they need a shakeup. I think they have the best strategic team that they can have, but they better understand that they are in the fight of their life and if Steve Schmidt does not bring as Barack famously said, does not bring a knife to a gun fight, he brings a bazooka.
HILL: All right, well Paul, Mark and Leslie, stay right here. We're going to have more on that, including looking at this Fourth of July weekend. As we head forward, an issue that's been very big on the trail, the patriotism question.
So just how does Barack Obama convince all the voters he is in fact a true, blue American? That's just ahead.
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(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
OBAMA: Keeping faith with those who serve must always be at the core of America. It's a core American value and a cornerstone of American patriotism.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HILL: On the eve of this Independence Day, Barack Obama, no surprise here, is talking patriotism. But it turns out Americans may not be listening. According to the latest CNN poll, more voters see John McCain as patriotic. So what does Obama need to do to sell the American people on his patriotism?
Back now to talk about that, Paul Begala, Mark Halperin and Leslie Sanchez. Paul, I'm going start with you on this one. Is all this flag waving that Obama has been doing, is it going be enough for him? Can he change these opinions?
BEGALA: Sure. First off, Senator McCain served his country and suffered for our country. There is no higher form of patriotism than the suffering that John McCain endured in uniform for our country. But, that doesn't mean that everybody who runs has to match that standard, right?
Senator Obama, now do you notice, he's wearing a lapel pin like this one that I've been wearing for several years since the Secret Service gave it to me. I don't know if he's wearing ties like mine from the Lou Dobbs collection. But I think it's good. I think it's important. Barack is an authentic American patriot. He does love this country very much. And as he often says, which I think is a very wonderful statement, his story would not be possible in any country on Earth except America, so of course he loves this country deeply.
He just needs to reassure people. And I think it was a very smart thing to do in Fargo.
HALPERIN: Paul, why do you think he has to reassure people? Why do those numbers exist? What is it about Barack Obama's American story that has made people even raising this issue? BEGALA: What do you think, Halperin?
HALPERIN: You're the media, you tell me.
BEGALA: Look, there has been a smear came pain. I didn't support Barack Obama in the primary. But I've been exposed to him in Washington, I've met him a couple of times, briefed him. He's a real patriot. The problem is, there has been a smear campaign since the first day this guy burst on the national scene, attacking his patriotism, attacking his religion, attacking everything that they could possibly think of to attack on him. But unlike some other Democrats who are now on Mount Losemore, Barack is not taking this lying down. He's going to have to do it and I think it's a wise thing to do.
HILL: Go ahead Leslie, you wanted to weigh in on that.
SANCHEZ: Just to that point, it is a critical issue if he's trying to explain his patriotism. I don't think people really doubt that as much as they don't know who he is. There are these issues about the flag, that he didn't hold his hand over his heart during the national anthem. Just questioning, is he someone who looks at the United States as an apologist? How is really in terms of his idea?
HILL: So can he come back from it then, Leslie?
SANCHEZ: Absolutely. He's exactly right. Right now we're still in the marathon stage of this. And if you look at the fact that more than half of the voters who are going to vote in November haven't yet started engaging in this election, there's plenty of opportunities to find who these candidates are.
HILL: So patriotism is one issue, but there may be a bigger issue for Barack Obama when we look at these next numbers. This question was, does the candidate have the right experience to be president. If you look at this, 76 percent say absolutely yes John McCain does to 48 percent for Obama. Mark, that's a 28-point gap when you ask voters. That's substantial.
HALPERIN: Look, I think in the national environment, there's no reason the Republicans should win this race. I think Democrats are underestimating McCain's ability to help his own cause. But the Democrats who think Obama might lose, the ones who are worried look at the few numbers we just looked at, those two numbers.
What people think about his patriotism, what people think about his experience to be president. That's the way they think he can lose and I think it's very hard to change those numbers. There's not that much time left. He's still a favorite, but that's where the danger is, those two numbers.
HILL: And that's what we're going to look at going forward. I have to leave it there, I'm going to get in big trouble if we keep talking. Leslie Sanchez, Mark Halperin, Paul Begala, thank you all for joining us. Just ahead, we're going bring you the latest on the now freed hostages from Colombia enjoying their first full day of freedom in more than five years. But what were those five years like in captivity? How did they survive? We'll speak with a former hostage held in Iraq, coming up.
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HILL: "LARRY KING LIVE" comes your way at the top of the hour. John King in tonight for Larry.
John, what do you got on deck?
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Erica, it's been a great program. Coming up in just a few minutes, we're going to spend the entire hour looking into this daring and dramatic rescue of those hostages, 15 hostages in the jungle of Colombia yesterday, including the three Americans. We're going to speak to Colombia's defense minister, who will share the secrets of this dramatic rescue.
Also, to two journalists who ventured into those jungles for a documentary on the kidnappings, including interviews with those Americans while they were in captivity, as well as talking to others. Our senior Pentagon correspondent Jamie McIntyre is here for the military perspective on this and several former captives and hostages to discuss how difficult it is to be held and how difficult it is, Erica, to reintegrate once you were released.
HILL: Absolutely, some incredible stories just ahead.
John, thanks, we'll be watching.
Up next here in the ELECTION CENTER, John touched on this, but how do hostages make it through those five years? A former captive joins us to talk about surviving the ordeal.
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HILL: Doctors say the three Americans rescued yesterday in Colombia are doing well. But we actually know very little about what happened to them during their more than five years of captivity. Joining us now, a man who knows what it is like to be held hostage. He was a prisoner in Iraq for 311 days. Roy Hallums joins us tonight from Memphis, Tennessee.
I have to imagine, Roy, that this day, as you're going through the medical appointments and the debriefing has got to be almost one of the hardest because you know you get to see your family. What's going through your mind as you wait?
ROY HALLUMS, KIDNAPPED IN IRAQ: For me, it wasn't hard. It was a great day. You're just so relieved that you're out of the constant pressure you were under. And being with the doctors and getting the evaluation was the easy part. Since I was in Iraq, it took a day and half for me to get back here to Memphis before I could see my family. That part seemed long. HILL: I'm sure it did, but boy, I'm sure it was worth it as soon as you got off that plane. You mentioned the pressure that you're under as you're held. Give us an idea, what is that pressure like?
HALLUMS: Well it's just constant pressure that you don't know from minute to minute what's going happen. You hear a noise, or you hear people talking and you, you know, if they're speaking Arabic, I don't understand Arabic. You don't know what they're talking about. Are they saying we're going to kill Roy in the next 15 minutes or we're going go get lunch. And then sometimes they would take me out and they'd do the video, they would take you out for questions and it was just constantly things that were coming up.
HILL: Were you hopeful?
HALLUMS: I was always hopeful. I always knew the U.S. military would be looking for me. But after being held for so long, you start to think, well, how long is this really going last?
HILL: Did you ever lose hope at that point?
HALLUMS: Well, toward the end, after I had been there 311 days and I was thinking, well am I going be here another year or are they going to get tired of having me around, I'll be too much trouble and they're going to get rid of me? So, you know, you start getting all these thoughts about what might happen. But I would try to put those out of my mind and think of something else.
HILL: I imagine it's a constant battle, but we're so happy you're here to talk on us today, Roy Hallums, thank you again.
That's going to do it for me in the ELECTION CENTER.
Stay tuned, "LARRY KING LIVE" starts right now.
