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Campbell Brown

Georgia and Russia Agree to Cease-fire; What Does Putin Want?; McCain's Campaign Makeover: Is it Working?; McCain Weighs in on the Russia-Georgia Conflict; Who Wants to Be Vice President?

Aired August 12, 2008 - 20:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Hi there, everybody.
Welcome, very welcome breaking news to tell you about tonight. At this moment, there is cease-fire between Russia and its southern neighbor, Georgia.

So, how to make sense of this flash fire. It is complicated, but in the end it is about family. And I have spent a lot of the day today thinking about a mother we spoke to there last night. She's an American. And wondering if she and her small kids stayed hoping Russian troops and tanks would not roll in or whether they made a run for safety.

Well, we're going to reach out to her again tonight to find out how they are doing and what happened.

As for the cease-fire, both sides have agreed to a plan that could end the bloody conflict after days of fighting left parts of Georgia in ruin. But, at this hour, we don't know how long the peace will hold, in part because now there are disturbing new charges of ethnic cleansing in rebel provinces.

Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

MIKHAIL SAAKASHVILI, PRESIDENT OF GEORGIA: What we have been getting, reports lately that groups in -- near Tskhinvali were entering religious previously under control Georgian (INAUDIBLE) killings, rampages, and ethnic cleansing of the areas adjacent to town of Tskhinvali.

We have credible reports of camps set up in (INAUDIBLE) where people are interred and of on-site killings and of executions of innocent civilians there.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Meanwhile, thousands of Georgians defiantly cheered President Saakashvili at a huge rally in the country's capital, Tbilisi.

We're going to have late-breaking details of all of this tonight in the ELECTION CENTER.

But we begin on the ground in the war zone. CNN senior international correspondent Matthew Chance is in Tbilisi for us tonight.

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Thanks very much, Campbell.

Well, there's been a dramatic development here in this bitter conflict between Russia and Georgia. A European cease-fire proposal has been accepted first of all by the Russians and now by the Georgian leadership as well. So, effectively, the hostilities between these two sides are over.

Now, having said that, this is still a great deal of tension across many areas of Georgia close to the conflict zones, particularly in places like Gori, a city close to South Ossetia. We traveled earlier today and found the fresh scars of battle.

We're on the main road driving into Gori, and there's virtually nobody around. Yesterday, this road was full of thousands of Georgian forces moving out of the city. And now you can see they have left some of their vehicles abandoned on the side of the road in the panic of withdrawing from what they believed was a Russian advance.

This looks like it's been hit by an airstrike. It's an armored personnel carrier. You can see it's been totally, totally gutted by the strike. It must have been absolute carnage.

Yesterday, an airplane came and bombed it? It was a Russian airplane.

Well, this is the main square in Gori. You can see there's a big statue of Stalin, who was born here. It's also the main gathering point of a town which has come under frequent attack over the course of the past week or so, since these hostilities with Russia broke out.

You can see just over here, only this morning, there was an airstrike on Gori, even after the thousands of Georgian troops that were garrisoned here had left. It seems to be the crater from some kind of rocket that was fired here. In fact, there are craters all over this square from the airstrikes, caused quite a lot of damage to the surrounding buildings, as you can see.

You see the rockets? This is it. This is part of the bomb. It's Russian letters. So, you're saying it was definitely a Russian bomb that was dropped?

It was her house that was hit by this incendiary bomb or whatever it was. She told me that she doesn't really know what's going to happen to her now. But clearly she's not the only one who is in an incredibly desperate position as a result of this bitter conflict.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: And a lot of emotion there, obviously, Matthew. Do people believe that this cease-fire is going to hold? How confident are they?

CHANCE: I think for the time being people are quite confident, at least here in Tbilisi.

But, as I say, there's a lot of tension elsewhere in the country still. And I think there's a real understanding that these -- this conflict with Russia and Georgia over these separatist regions could flare up again, not least because the underlying problems that started this conflict in the first place are still there.

There are areas of Georgia that are under, you know, separatist government control, separatists backed by Moscow. That's now still the case as a result of the end of this conflict between Russia and Georgia -- Campbell.

BROWN: Matthew Chance for us tonight from Tbilisi -- Matthew, thanks.

The State Department has been trying to make sure several hundred U.S. citizens caught in the fighting get to safety. And last night on this program, I spoke by telephone with that American mother I was thinking about today, Lisa Kaestner, who was with her family inside Tbilisi. She decided to run. Tonight, they are safely out of Georgia.

Lisa, thanks for joining us.

And, first, tell me how you are doing, how your family's doing right now.

LISA KAESTNER, AMERICAN IN GEORGIA: We're doing fine.

We're very tired. We decided this evening -- or we decided today, but didn't depart until this evening, to move ourselves to Armenia. And we had quite a long drive from Georgia, I guess, from Tbilisi. We left about eight hours ago, and we have just gotten settled into our hotel room.

BROWN: I'm imagining making the trip with three kids, I mean, it must have been frightening.

KAESTNER: Yes. Well, basically, the truth, it's -- I have driven into Armenia many times for work. And it's not very far to the border. And I have crossed the border with three kids.

So, actually, getting to Armenia wasn't bad. What I didn't calculate was quite how far we had to go after we crossed the border. So, the drive has been longer than unexpected on dark and winding roads with sometimes hungry children. But, actually, they were great. They slept a lot of the way.

BROWN: Well, it's a relief for many who were watching last night and hearing you today to know that you and your family are safe.

I know you're probably aware that a cease-fire was announced just a short time ago. People must be extremely relieved. What generally has the reaction been?

KAESTNER: Well, when I left Georgia, I have to say, when I left Tbilisi, the mood was so in contrast to last night. I went back to my apartment to gather some things, the apartment that I hadn't been staying in, because it's right downtown. So, it's just above the downtown area, where there was a lot of the -- not demonstrations, but I would say more like celebrations. And the mood was really very celebratory.

So, that was good. But, then, while we were driving, I was talking to people who are, you know, more informed, maybe. And when I asked, well, so, is there a cease-fire, have they stopped, you know, shelling and fighting, and one response I got was, well, the cease-fire is still being negotiated, which told me that things had not calmed down.

BROWN: Well, Lisa, we appreciate you taking the time. I know you're very sleep-deprived to speak with us for the second night now. Best of luck to you and to your family.

Lisa Kaestner joining us live -- appreciate it, Lisa.

KAESTNER: Thank you very much.

BROWN: So, what is it like at this moment in the middle of that cease-fire? We're going to hear now from someone who is still in Georgia tonight.

Anna is a teenager who lives there with her family. She attended the huge pro-Georgia rally tonight in Tbilisi. But over the weekend, she says her whole neighborhood was awakened by the sound of Russian bombs. We talked a little bit ago on broadband via Skype.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Anna, it has to have been a very frightening two days for you and your family. Describe what it's been like.

ANNA GIORGOBIANI, EYEWITNESS TO GEORGIA ATTACKS: Today, they brought dead people from the conflicted area. They brought dead soldiers and dead reservists.

And there was one young boy, he was 17 years old, and he was -- he so (INAUDIBLE) I felt so shocked. A 17-year-old boy, he just finished school and he was went to army. That's really horrible. And when his mother found out about it, she jumped from the building and killed herself.

It was shocking. And I can't find the proper words to express the feeling that everyday we find out that more and more people are dying.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BROWN: Obviously, this remains a very confusing and very dangerous situation. Many say Russia had ample reason to invade its neighbor, but it is so powerful, rather, its military response so overwhelming, that many of you are wondering what is coming up next.

Up next: the new chill in U.S.-Russian relations. We're going to talk about that after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BROWN: Today's news of a cease-fire comes after round-the-clock diplomatic efforts from French President Sarkozy in his role as chief of the European Union. As for the United States, its role in getting to this point has been less clear. Politically, both John McCain and Barack Obama had more harsh words for Russia today. But when it comes to action, did the Bush administration drop the ball?

Well, White House correspondent Ed Henry has the very latest.

And...

(CROSSTALK)

BROWN: Go ahead, Ed.

ED HENRY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, good evening, Campbell.

Certainly, the White House knows there's criticism out there that they should have been doing more. So, yesterday, you saw the president in the Rose Garden as you know really deliver a punch, get tough with Russia. But in that building behind me, all day today, it was really all about the president trying to turn the temperature down.

Rather than him coming out again with tough talk, he sent his top diplomat, the secretary of state, Condoleezza Rice, out, and had her -- there was real a marked change in tone. She was more measured. She was trying to reach out to Russia and say, look, we're getting these reports about the possibility of a cease-fire. She was encouraging Russia to follow through on that, to really try to turn the temperature down, calm this down.

But that's what's happening in public. In private, Secretary Rice and a whole bunch of other U.S. officials have really been working the phones all day with European allies and talking about possible punishment against Russia if they don't follow through on this truce.

One quick example would be dropping Moscow from the G8, not having of the G8 Summit anymore, not giving that public standing around the world. So, it's sort of a two-pronged approach, in public, try to calm things down, in public, play a little bit of hardball -- Campbell.

BROWN: Ed, do you think this incident has fundamentally changed the relationship between the White House and Russia? And where do you think it goes from here?

HENRY: It certainly has that potential.

On one hand, though, you have to say that President Bush wants to try to end his term in office on a positive note and try to patch this up. You remember, in 2001, he spoke highly of then President Putin and trying to bring this relationship together.

It's now obviously much more rocky. He wants to try to repair it. But the bottom line is, as you noted, moving forward, it's clear that John McCain, in particular, if he's elected president, he's taking a much more harsh tone against Russia.

So, if Russia thinks that the U.S. is being tough now, just wait if either McCain or Obama gets in. We're hearing the rhetoric from them on the campaign trail. Certainly, it's more easy for them, because they're candidates. They're not the actual president.

But, for example, John McCain today was talking about how he thinks Russia wants to bring the empire back. We're hearing nothing like that from the White House. Those candidates out there are being tougher. So, if Russia doesn't change its act quickly, they can expect a much rockier relationship with the next U.S. president -- Campbell.

BROWN: All right, Ed Henry for us tonight -- Ed, thanks.

HENRY: Thank you.

BROWN: Coming up: the man at the center of the Russia-Georgia crisis. Vladimir Putin is no longer Russia's president. Instead, he is prime minister. And the new president is Putin's handpicked successor, many say because Putin is still running the country. So, what does he want? And how far will he go to get it? What you need to know about the most powerful man in Russia -- that is coming up when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R-AZ), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: You might have seen where Vladimir Putin was named man of the year by "TIME" magazine. Now, I looked into Mr. Putin's eyes, and I saw three letters, a K, a G, and B.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Now, that was John McCain last January playing off President Bush's famous statement that he had looked into Vladimir Putin's soul, clearly having some trust issues of his own.

Well, Russia's got a different president now, Dmitry Medvedev. But it's clear that Putin, now prime minister, is still calling the shots.

To talk about Putin's ambitions for Russia, I'm joined by Robert Kagan, a senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. His book about the post-Cold War world is called "The Return of History and the End of Dreams."

Robert, welcome to you. Good to have you here.

ROBERT KAGAN, CARNEGIE ENDOWMENT FOR INTERNATIONAL PEACE: Thanks very much. Good to be here.

BROWN: So, Dmitry Medvedev is now the president of Russia, but it was Prime Minister Vladimir Putin who went directly from the Beijing Olympics to the front lines. Is Putin still running the show? Explain to us how this is and what's really going on.

KAGAN: Well, I think it was always Putin's intention to stay in power. He handpicked his successor, got him elected.

But Putin has always made it clear that he feels a special obligation to remain the leader of Russia. He once said he has a moral right to rule Russia. And the fact is, he's collected all the power around him. And Medvedev is really -- and especially as we have seen during this crisis, Medvedev is really just a figurehead. It's Putin calling the shots on this military action and it's Putin calling the shots in terms of Russia's domestic policies as well.

BROWN: A moment ago, we heard John McCain say essentially when he looks at Putin, he sees KGB, Cold War bad guy. But it wasn't that long that we heard President Bush describing him a very different way, being optimistic about the kind of leader that he could be or would be. Is McCain right on this? Is Putin in your view a real threat?

KAGAN: Well, I mean, if Putin hadn't led Russia to invade Georgia last week, I might have said, the jury is out. But now I think the jury is not out.

Obviously, Putin is willing to do something that I think most people really didn't expect could happen in this day and age, which is, he's willing to use overwhelming military force against a neighbor in order to bring that neighbor in line.

I think that we do have to worry that Putin's ambitions for Russia extend around his neighborhood. Putin once said that the greatest catastrophe of the 20th century was the collapse of the Soviet Union. I don't think there's any question that, perhaps not completely in a territorial sense, but he does want to reconstitute Russia's dominance of its neighbors, which means not just Georgia, but also Ukraine.

And Russia has been warning Ukraine and other countries in that region. And that is a problem, because those countries are free and independent and part of Europe and some of them are part of NATO.

BROWN: Well, I have heard people go further than that, as we have watched what has happened over the last few days, people raising the concern, essentially, that Russia is, as you put it, essentially in the empire-building business again and that we could be seeing the beginning of a new Cold War. Is that overstating it?

KAGAN: Well, you know, I'm not even sure the Cold War analogy is the right fit.

Obviously, you know, Putin is not returning Russia to some kind of communist regime. I would say Russia looks a lot more like one of the great powers of the 19th century. I think he has skipped the 20th century and gone back to the 19th. He looks a lot more like czarist, Russia, which also had a desire to dominate all the neighbors on their border, as well.

And I think that what we're seeing is a return to history in the sense that we're seeing a return to great power competition, great power ambition, great power nationalism, and the prime example of this today is Vladimir Putin's Russia.

BROWN: And a quick bottom line here. Do you think what's happening in Georgia now with the cease-fire, do you think it's really over?

KAGAN: This conflict, this particular phase of the conflict may be over, although I'm not totally optimistic about that.

But let's face it. This confrontation which Putin has sought with Georgia goes back several years. Putin cannot tolerate, refuses to tolerate an independent, pro-western, democratic state on its borders. I think that, if we get through this phase, especially if Europe and the United States don't hang together, we will see further efforts by Russia to exert its dominance over Georgia.

BROWN: Robert Kagan for us tonight, appreciate your time. Thanks very much.

KAGAN: Thank you.

BROWN: Up next, we are back out on the campaign trail with John McCain, who took a page out of Arnold Schwarzenegger's Hollywood playbook today. We are going to bring you all of the razzle-dazzle stagecraft and ask our political experts whether this might work.

This is the ELECTION CENTER.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Coming up: while Obama vacations in Hawaii, a look at how the McCain campaign tries to make a splash.

But, first, David Mattingly has tonight's briefing -- David.

DAVID MATTINGLY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Campbell, a cancer patient on his way to a Boston hospital was killed in a plane crash today. His wife and the pilot also died when the small plane crashed and burned in a supermarket parking lot. A medical charity arranged the flight. Investigators want to know if the plane's propeller fell off before the crash.

The mystery man who calls himself Clark Rockefeller may be tied to a California couple's disappearance 23 years ago. Human remains were found in the couple's former backyard by crews installing a swimming pool. Detectives say the suspect, whose real name is Christian Gerhartsreiter, lived in the couple's guest house. Gerhartsreiter is in custody, charged with kidnapping his 7-year-old daughter a few weeks ago in Boston.

There will be no parole for John Lennon's killer. Mark David Chapman shot Lennon in 1980. Despite a clean prison record, Chapman was denied parole today. He must remain behind bars for at least two more years.

And Detroit's mayor finally wins a round in court. Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick faces several charges, including assaulting two police officers. His sister is a prosecution witness in that case. The mayor visited her Saturday, even though he was under orders to stay away from witnesses. Today, a judge said Kilpatrick broke no rules -- Campbell.

BROWN: All right, David Mattingly for us tonight -- David, thanks.

Here in the ELECTION CENTER, we do like to pull back the curtain to show you the stagecraft behind the presidential candidates' campaign events. Well, coming up, John McCain takes a page from a Hollywood script to make a grand entrance.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Barack Obama still on vacation in Hawaii, so John McCain has pretty much got the campaign trail to himself right now. And boy, he's making the most of it. Take a look at this.

This is one of the splashiest McCain events in months. Oh, yes. You're hearing it. Town hall in York, Pennsylvania. They played the theme from "Rocky," always the state's choice in Pennsylvania.

The Straight Talk Express bus pulled in under a huge American flag and there's McCain as you saw a moment ago, right up front. If that set- up looks at all familiar, it could be because California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, I think we have the tape, did exactly the same thing during his 2006 reelection campaign. Same music, same bus, the whole nine yards. Do you think it has anything to do with the fact that Steve Schmidt, the mastermind in both campaigns, is now running the show?

Anyway, it looks like he may be the man behind McCain's latest makeover. Is it working? We're going to talk about that right now with our panel of experts.

Republican consultant Alex Castellanos joining us tonight, along with Hilary Rosen, political director for the "Huffington Post," and Mark Halperin, with me here in New York, editor-at-large and senior political analyst for "Time" magazine. Welcome, guys.

Alex, let me start with you here. We talked a lot about how the McCain campaign has been trying to revamp its stagecraft in many ways and give McCain a bit of an image makeover. Looks like he may be getting one. Is that what's happening here? And is it working?

ALEX CASTELLANOS, REPUBLICAN CONSULTANT: Well, you know, it worked for Schwarzenegger. So why not give it a shot here? I think they've got a window, they've got a vacuum. Barack is off the campaign trail, and they're trying to display some energy, vitality. And it seems to be working.

BROWN: Hillary, it's interesting to see McCain, I think, do this sort of big Hollywood entrance...

HILARY ROSEN, "THE HUFFINGTON POST": Right.

BROWN: ... because he just slammed Obama for the very same thing. The celebrity status stuff. ROSEN: Right. It just proves that McCain doesn't mind a celebrity candidate. He just wants to be the celebrity.

BROWN: Well, hold that thought, because Obama did fire back with this TV ad. And I want you to take a look at it. We'll talk about it on the other side.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, CAMPAIGN VIDEO)

NARRATOR: For decades he's been Washington's biggest celebrity.

ANNOUNCER: John McCain.

And as Washington embraced him, John McCain hugged right back. The lobbyist running his low-road campaign. The money, billions in tax breaks for oil and drug companies, but almost nothing for families like yours. Lurching to the right, then the left, the old Washington dance, whatever it takes.

ANNOUNCER: John McCain.

A Washington celebrity playing the same old Washington games.

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm Barack Obama, and I approve this message.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: So, Hillary, you think that ad works in comparison? You know, that was the response to the celebrity ad about Obama.

ROSEN: Well, I think it's better than the old ad because it draws people in with the music, obviously, and the energy. But really what it does is it paints him as a celebrity of the kind that people really have substantively disliked.

They dislike politicians that change their opinion on immigration, that change their opinion on tax cuts for the wealthy in favor of them when they start to run for president. They dislike candidates who once opposed George Bush or said that they did but then voted for him 95 percent of the time.

I think that what Obama did with this ad was he turned the celebrity issue on its head and then gave people more substance about why John McCain was really the wrong kind of old Washington politics.

BROWN: I'm not sure it was a real substantive ad from my perspective here. But --

MARK HALPERIN, "TIME" MAGAZINE: Any ad with Steve Carell.

BROWN: Yes, but I get the point. What we also saw in that ad was a lot of McCain and Bush, McCain and Bush.

HALPERIN: Six times in 30 seconds. It seems like a lot to you?

BROWN: Well, that was -- I mean that was predicted from the very beginning.

ROSEN: Was it 95 percent?

BROWN: Everybody said you're going to be seeing this image of the two of them together a lot during the campaign.

(CROSSTALK)

HALPERIN: If this election (ph) is a referendum on the incumbent, Obama's going to win. So it's often as possible, and I think you'll see it in the debates, I think you'll see it in the fall advertising, they want to remind people that John McCain is the same party as George Bush, and John McCain, as Hilary says, has been at largely been a supporter as most Republicans have of George Bush. It's certainly one of the most effective cards they have to play.

On the other hand, they're playing it now, which suggests that they're at least somewhat worried. They deny they're very worried about the progress McCain has made, not just with the stagecraft, but with some of his messaging over the last couple of weeks.

BROWN: What do you think, Alex?

CASTELLANOS: There's a difference here and, you know, there's a difference between celebrity and prominent, celebrity and acclaimed for achievements that you've accomplished in your life. And, you know, John McCain is something that's well known. You know, his glass is full.

The American people have seen him tested throughout his life. Barack Obama is a little bit of an empty glass. And, therefore, when you see ads like this, a dueling ad war, very similar ads, I think it does Obama a little more damage because we don't really know who he is.

So I think McCain in effect has a little bit more Teflon against these kind of things than Obama does. Obama is the guy we're trying to find out, you know, what's inside the box.

ROSEN: Well, you know I think --

BROWN: Go ahead.

ROSEN: I think that what this ad does is one really important thing. It signals to the McCain campaign that if you want to play dirty and you want to just start doing competing ads where we're leveling charges at each other, Obama -- the Obama campaign is willing to play that game. There's a lot of stuff, despite what Alex says, that people don't know about John McCain.

And to the extent that the Obama campaign is willing to get out there and be tough about it, you know, that he's, you know, got nine houses and wears $520 shoes, that he has a mixed, you know, review on virtually every issue he's ever worked on. He's been on every side of it. You know, to the extent that they're willing to push back on this and be aggressive and be personal, I think that you're going to see John McCain have trouble with a really aggressive Obama campaign. HALPERIN: I don't know how many houses John McCain has, but every time a Democrat talks about it, the number goes up. Hilary has got him up to nine. Early today he only had six.

ROSEN: That's because I read somewhere that he doesn't even know how many houses he had. When he was asked, he stumbled for an answer.

CASTELLANOS: And at least -- and at least John McCain fills his shoes. And I think that's the real issue in the election.

ROSEN: Oh, zing, good line.

CASTELLANOS: Because we don't know who Barack Obama is yet. Look, we're all trying to find out who these guys are going to pick for vice president as their nominee. And if McCain really wants somebody who's transformed himself, who now supports the Bush policy of preemption in Iraq, who says he's for welfare reform even though he voted against it, who's now moving toward oil drilling, a good conservative like that, he could pick Barack Obama, because those are all positions that Barack Obama's assuming.

BROWN: All right. OK, hold tight guys. You mentioned running mates, Alex. I'm going to pick up there when we come back from a break.

We're going to discuss potential running mates. We're also going to hear what the candidates are saying about the fighting in Georgia and put that to our "No Bull" test. We'll be back right after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: In just a few minutes, LARRY KING LIVE remembers a king of comedy who died over the weekend. And I know, Larry, you've got an exclusive all-star guest list tonight, is that right?

LARRY KING, HOST, "LARRY KING LIVE": We sure do, Campbell. A tribute to Bernie Mac, one of the best. The original kings of comedy. Steve Harvey, D.L. Hughley and Cedric the Entertainer, all here. The fond salute to their friend who died so suddenly over the weekend.

And Ashton Kutcher, who co-starred with Bernie in "Guess Who" is here, too. Plus, members of Bernie's TV family from the "Bernie Mac Show," they'll join me too. The life of Bernie Mac coming up on "LARRY KING LIVE," Campbell.

BROWN: All right, Larry. We'll see you then.

John McCain says we are all Georgians today. Well, coming up, more of what he's telling crowds about the Georgia-Russia conflict. Our Tom Foreman will put it to our "NO Bull" test when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: I want to take one more look at fighting, and now the cease fire between Russia and its southern neighbor Georgia. Naturally the presidential candidates had more to say today about the hostilities. Another shot at who would be the best commander in chief test. Barack Obama who is vacationing in Hawaii put out a short written statement saying, "Now is the time for action, not just words. It is past time for the Russian government to immediately sign and implement a cease-fire. Russia must halt its violation of Georgian air space and withdraw its ground forces from Georgia with international monitors to verify that these obligations are met."

John McCain started a town hall rally in York, Pennsylvania, by telling the crowd, quote, "International aggression is tragically not a thing of the past." And he went on to say more. Here's John McCain.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: There's a pipeline, an oil pipeline, Baku, Tbilisi and Ceyhan, which brings oil from the Caspian to points west, and traverses Georgia. That's a buried pipeline that the Russians tried to bomb. And I don't have to tell you about the price of oil and disruption of oil supplies.

In this country, it's that little country -- a country's territorial integrity, independence and sovereignty, NATO countries reaffirmed that their summit in April that terrible violence has occurred.

Now let me just remind you exactly what's taken place here. On Friday, Russian tanks and troops moved through the Roki Tunnel across an internationally recognized border, and into the Georgian province of South Ossetia. Two years ago, I traveled to South Ossetia, my friends, and we went through this barricade and as soon as we got into this place, which the Russians are maintaining hundreds and now thousands of troops, there was a huge billboard and it said Vladimir Putin, our president. Have no doubt about Russian ambitions in this area.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BROWN: Tom Foreman is aboard the CNN Election Express tonight, and he's joining us from Sturgis, Michigan, to put what McCain is saying to our "No Bull" test -- Tom.

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well, Campbell, you can tell that John McCain sees this as a perfect opportunity to show off all he knows about foreign affairs and he knows a good bit. Barack Obama has only been to Russia once, his office tells us. McCain's office says they're not even sure how many times he's been to Russia, more than two for sure, and three times to Georgia. So let's check out the claims he's made about this situation.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

FOREMAN (voice-over): First, did the Russians try to bomb the oil pipeline? Georgian officials say they did firing dozens of missiles at it. However, B.P., the company that runs the pipeline, says there is no sign of damage and has told numerous news agencies they are unaware of any Russian attack on the line. McCain says NATO has reaffirmed the independence of Georgia. True. But this past spring, NATO stopped short of making Georgia a full NATO member in large part to keep the Russians happy.

Remember, NATO was set up nearly 60 years ago as a military alliance of western powers pledged to defend each other in the event of a Soviet invasion. Russia does not want former Soviet republics on their doorstep to be part of that alliance. But the three Baltic states already are. And note this, NATO did not rush military aid to Georgia in this conflict despite strong words of support.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

FOREMAN: So John McCain is engaging in a bit of hyperbole with all of this, but just a bit, by and large, he has a long record of standing against Soviet expansion and this situation is really letting him show it off -- Campbell.

BROWN: All right. Tom Foreman for us. Tom, thanks.

Coming up, the big question for our political panel tonight. Who wants to be vice president? Time is running out for the running mates to be. Who is winning that audition? We're going to ask the experts when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Some news to report tonight from the campaign trail. Nebraska Senator Chuck Hagel, a Republican, says he is sitting out the presidential race. Barack Obama was courting him pretty hard. They actually traveled together to the Middle East last month. Hagel was even mentioned as a potential Obama running mate.

Well now, CNN has confirmed that Hagel, who's also a close friend of John McCain's, will not endorse either presidential candidate. Hagel says he will also skip the political convention.

Well, presumably, we can scratch his name off the veepstakes list. Who is still on it?

CNN's Jessica Yellin is joining us with the very latest intel on all of this. And, Jessica, what are your sources telling you? Who is on the short, short list at this moment?

JESSICA YELLIN, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: What everyone wants to know, Campbell. Listen, both campaigns, my sources tell me, are considering whether they want to go with a candidate who reassures voters about the perceived weaknesses of the candidates.

So, for example, in Barack Obama's case, the perceived weakness could be experience. So he would consider Joseph Biden, long time senator or another long time senator, Chris Dodd.

For John McCain, the perceived weakness could be age so they're looking at someone like a Tim Pawlenty, a governor of Minnesota who is young and new to the scene. But the other dilemma is do they want, instead, to reaffirm the key message of the campaign by choosing Washington outsiders. On the Democrat side, Barack Obama looking seriously at Tim Kaine, governor of Virginia, a newcomer to the national scene. Or for John McCain, even a Mitt Romney might qualify because he's not a Washington insider.

But bottom line, the folks I talked to who are very close to both the candidates say the top concern for both men in this case is not the candidate who is going to bring along another state or a few extra votes, but somebody that they actually like, trust, and want to work with should they get into the Oval Office.

BROWN: And, Jessica, we heard all this talk about both candidates announcing their running mates early. But the convention is right around the corner now. Still nothing. What are you hearing in terms of timing?

YELLIN: Right. We were expecting it weeks ago. Well, there are a couple of things. One is, we're hearing that it might not happen until the weekend before the Democratic convention, very late at the end of next week. And there was early talk, but there was concern that if they announce too soon in the summer, they would get a bump of momentum and then lose that momentum, or that it would give the press too much time to sort of pick the person apart whoever the nominees chooses.

So they wanted to not give as much time to analyze this person and make sure that it lets them ride a crest of enthusiasm into both conventions. So we're looking at possibly as late as next Friday, Saturday and Sunday for both men to announce a running mate -- Campbell.

BROWN: All right. Jessica Yellin for us tonight. Jessica, thanks.

So who is winning the veepstakes? Let's discuss that with the -- or discuss the wannabes, not with our wannabes -- with our already ours (ph) who are joining us now -- Alex Castellanos, Hilary Rosen and Mark Halperin.

And, Mark, Jessica reported we are getting into crunch time here. A lot of people auditioning for the job. Who do you think is making the best case on either side right now?

HALPERIN: Well, look, if you go too hard to make the case, I think it sometimes can backfire, although we saw four years ago John Edwards did a very effective job through surrogates, including labor unions and other politicians of lobbying for it. I don't get the sense that there's a lot of overt efforts to lobby these candidates directly.

The person who has done the most on the Republican side is the guy Alex worked for in the nomination battle which is Mitt Romney. Gone on TV whenever they've asked, been an effective surrogate, raised money, traveled the country. I would say if you were just looking at what they've done publicly on the Republican side, Romney has done the most. On the Democratic side, the guy who's been very active, Tim Kaine, the governor of Virginia, who Jessica mentioned. Early support of Obama, very personally close to him. He's worked hard in Virginia and around the country. Those are the two who've done the most publicly, but I'm not sure that means they'll be picked.

BROWN: And, Alex, I do want to ask you about one person that we've been hearing a lot of buzz about lately. John McCain and Joe Lieberman. They were together today. Should McCain, in your view, even consider Lieberman? This is a guy, who obviously, was on Al Gore's ticket. How would this play with conservatives?

CASTELLANOS: You know, I think in a way it wouldn't play badly at all. I think it might be a very solid choice. You know, for example, Lieberman is pro-choice and is different than the conservative base on a lot of issues. But when you pick a Democrat, you're not installing him as the next generation leader of the Republican Party.

If you pick someone, say, like a Tom Ridge, a Republican, who shares some of those same positions and you're putting him in the line of succession, so to speak, as the next leader of the Republican Party, that's something that conservatives, I think, might be a little bit more up in arms about.

But Lieberman, in a way, is a safer choice even though he disagrees with McCain. And he meets the one key test McCain has, which I think, you know, the fighter pilots want something in the cockpit with him for four years that he can trust, he can trust his life with and he can trust the country's life with. And McCain I think feels very strongly that somebody has to pass that test that, you know, would stand alone if necessary to keep the country safe. And I think Joe Lieberman would be one of the few candidates, I think, that would do that.

BROWN: And Hillary, let me ask you about the Democrats. Evan Bayh has been floated as a strong possibility for Obama. He, though, voted for the war in Iraq. Would choosing Bayh go against Obama's entire premise in many ways of his campaign?

ROSEN: I just can't let the Lieberman comment though pass without a comment, which is, if John McCain wants Joe Lieberman he can have him. There's no question that Joe Lieberman is about as disloyal a friend or a politician as exists on this earth. Just ask Al Gore, just ask any member of the Senate.

BROWN: All right. Well, it's pretty clear Democrats feel that way. So point made. Move on to the Evan Bayh question with regard to Democrats and the VP pick.

ROSEN: You know, I think, somebody like Evan Bayh is a solid choice because it doesn't matter whether he voted for the war, a lot of Democrats voted for the war. What matters is that very early on when it was clear that the war was being executed badly when new information came out that we went in under false pretenses, he was right out there along with others criticizing the effort. So I think that he has credibility there. You know, something that Mark and Jessica said earlier, I think is right, which is, look at who is out there and then look who's been kind of quiet these last two weeks. Mitt Romney has been kind of quiet. Joe Biden has been pretty quiet over these last two weeks.

They're not auditioning right now and maybe there's a reason for it. Maybe I'm reading too much into that, maybe not. So I think that, you know, the Democratic bench is pretty deep for Obama here. And I think Jessica had it right on the timing. It's going to be late.

CASTELLANOS: One thing about Bayh is that he is -- he's almost perfect-looking candidate. And in a way when you have a new candidate like Barack Obama who's unknown, you know, having a candidate that looks a little too perfect and plastic in a way, I think accentuates his -- Obama's maybe inauthenticity. And I don't know that Bayh would be the best choice. Kaine of Virginia --

BROWN: But Alex, in fairness --

CASTELLANOS: Kaine of Virginia maybe --

BROWN: He's more than plastic. I mean, this is a guy who has a real record. Fair?

(CROSSTALK)

CASTELLANOS: He has a record?

(CROSSTALK)

HALPERIN: Oh, look, he has a record in Indiana. He's a senator.

BROWN: I mean, you can't just -- I think you're writing him off a little too quick.

HALPERIN: Alex -- Alex wants Obama to pick someone ugly. I think that's the bottom line.

CASTELLANOS: No. But, you know, there seems to be a little bit of chemistry between Kaine and Obama. And they seem to, you know, almost square each other's strengths. And that would be for some reason that seems like a good marriage.

BROWN: All right, guys. Unfortunately we're out of time but many, many thanks. To Alex and Hillary and to Mark, here with me in New York, appreciate it.

So if you think that you know who is going to get the vice presidential nod, then go to CNN.com/electioncenter. Click on the "veepstakes" link. It's a game that we invented that works like a little bit like the stock market. You can predict a winner and check the political fortunes of every possible running mate.

For the Republicans, Mitt Romney right now our current leader followed by Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. For the Democrats, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius and U.S. Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, are right now the top choices. Again, to make your own picks in our veepstakes game, log on to CNN.com/electioncenter.

Coming up next, the story behind some sneaky stagecraft at the Olympics.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BROWN: Before we go tonight, some Olympic-size stagecraft. Hundreds of millions of TV viewers were charmed by a little girl who sang "Ode to the Motherland" as China's flag paraded through the stadium at Friday's opening ceremony.

Well, it turns out not only was she lip-synching the song, she wasn't even the real singer. We now know that Chinese officials at the highest levels switched girls because they thought the original 7- year-old singer wasn't cute enough. I think she's really cute.

Well, the organizers, we are told, felt it was in China's national interest to present a flawless image. That is stagecraft, people.

That's it from the ELECTION CENTER. Thanks for joining us tonight.

"LARRY KING LIVE" starts right now.