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Campbell Brown

Obama V.P. Watch Continues

Aired August 22, 2008 - 20:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

JOHN KING, CNN ANCHOR: And hi, everybody. Campbell Brown is off tonight.
We're live for your first look here inside the Pepsi Center, where the Democratic Convention kicks off on Monday.

And Barack Obama is still toying with us. He's chosen his running mate, and some longer shots have been told they're not the pick. But Senator Obama is keeping the big drama going. He still hasn't announced who he wants to take the number-two spot on the Democratic ticket.

The word could come any time between now and tomorrow afternoon. That's when Obama is the due to take the stage at a big rally in Springfield, Illinois. And the plan calls for his running mate to be on hand.

There are some things we do know tonight. Hillary Clinton was never vetted by the Obama campaign, suggesting she is a long shot at best. And today there was a fair amount of buzz about a dark horse named Edwards, not John Edwards, Chet Edwards, a nine-term House member from Texas who has the distinction of being President Bush's congressman.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

REP. CHET EDWARDS (D), TEXAS: It's known by some, but a pretty well kept secret, that I have been considered throughout this process.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: We will have more on Congressman Edwards in a minute.

We're also keeping an eye on the homes of all of the leading candidates, ready for reactions the minute the news breaks.

Barack Obama has been keeping a low profile today, about as low a profile as a presidential candidate can have. He's been holed up in his home city of Chicago, working on his convention acceptance speech, as the excitement builds for his still unknown running mate.

Obama's short list includes all the usual suspects we have been talking about here in the ELECTION CENTER for weeks, plus one name you probably haven't heard as much.

Candy Crowley in Chicago ready to bring us up to date.

Candy, all the buzz, all the activity, the rumors fly on a night like this. Tell us the latest.

CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Wow.

Well, let's begin. As you know, all day long we have been chasing some ridiculous things, some tantalizing tidbits. There was a story out as you know about a factory that was putting out Obama-Bayh stickers. No comment from the factory, but obviously anybody can print out any sticker in the hopes to make a buck when this finally comes to pass.

As you say, we are monitoring the homes. There is some talk of a charter flight that is going to Delaware, where obviously Joe Biden lives. None of these things prove a thing, but it's the sort of thing we're chasing down as we go through this process.

Obama, by the way, I have to tell you, John, just a little bit ago was going into dinner, and the pool, the small covey of reporters currently covering him, held up their cell phones and said, where's the text? And he sort of walked away, ignoring them, and then turned around and laughed.

So, trust me, they're having a great time with this.

On the serious side, Chet Edwards, he is a congressman from Texas. As you say, he represents George Bush's current hometown of Crawford, Texas. He is known among veterans groups as a very, very strong supporter of veterans benefits. In fact, he introduced a bill and plowed through Congress a bill that raised the amount of money the government put into the Veterans Affairs Administration by more than it has ever been raised.

So, he's gotten a lot of awards from those groups. He also has sat on the Budget Committee and the Appropriations Committee, which, as you know, are very powerful forces on Capitol Hill. You saw him there in the clip you played.

So, we have heard his name out there. He's a favorite of Nancy Pelosi's, who would really like to see him on the ticket. But the one guy that knows at this moment thinks it's hilarious that reporters are ask there asking for the text message. So, we haven't seen that yet, but, as I say, lots of clues, but we can't add it up to anything just yet.

KING: And, Candy, do they see in the Obama campaign any downside to this wait, keeping Congressman Edwards, Senator Biden, any others waiting for the phone call? Do they see any potential downside in going 24, 48 hours, where he says, "I know who I'm going to pick, but leaving us all hanging?

CROWLEY: Listen, their calculation is this. There's only so much headline that you get out of a V.P. choice. What, maybe two days?

If you want to roll in strongly to your convention, you do it on the Saturday and the Sunday before the convention. But all this hoopla and all of the past two weeks of running over the information and looking at the clues has been quite a very loud drumroll. And you have to wonder when -- if they -- when they put somebody out there, if it's going to be somebody that is equal all of this drum roll.

But right now, they really believe that two powerful days of headlines going into the convention is exactly what they need.

KING: Thanks, Candy, in Chicago. We will keep in touch as the night unfolds as necessary.

And as we wait for Barack Obama to announce his running mate, the stakes could not be much higher. Listen to what the candidate himself said he's looking for as he spoke on "The CBS Early Show" today.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, CBS)

OBAMA: Obviously, the most important question is, is this person prepared to be president? The second most important question, from my perspective, is, can this person help me govern? Are they going to be an effective partner in creating the kind of economic opportunity here at home and guiding us through some dangerous waters internationally?

And the third criteria for me, I think, was independence. I want somebody who is going to be able to challenge my thinking, and not simply be a yes person when it comes to policy-making.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: So, who fits that description best?

We have brought together three smart political minds to debate the pros and cons of the Obama short list, CNN contributor James Carville, who supported Hillary Clinton in the primaries, Stephen Hayes, senior writer for "The Weekly Standard," and CNN senior political analyst Gloria Borger. Gloria is here with me from the Pepsi Center.

Let me start with you, because like Candy and the rest of us, you have been working the phones all day trying to sort through all these sometimes conflicting clues. Where is it leaning now, if we can lean it anywhere?

GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, I think at this point you would have to go with one of the favorites that we have been hearing a lot about.

There's been a lot of buzz about Joe Biden today. But I have to tell you, John, that my sources who work for all of these people have gone radio silent on me. They're not talking. It's clear what this shows you is the discipline that this campaign has right now. You know, Barack Obama said, "I don't want any leaks." And He's not getting any.

KING: So, James Carville, you heard today that your candidate, Hillary Clinton, not even vetted by the Obama campaign. Does that, A, convince you it's not her. And, B, you know the polling? You know the weakness of Barack Obama. He has many strengths, but he's also weak among some constituencies across the country.

Who do you think best fits the description that he just said in that interview this morning and that can help him politically?

JAMES CARVILLE, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, it's not really up to me to do what I think. It's up to Senator Obama.

It's amazing, I think, and Gloria made a good point, that they have been very tight-lipped about this. And it shows they can do that. Any of the big names out there are all in that -- right qualified, but I don't know who is independent. I don't know who he would be comfortable with, or what his judgment is.

And I do agree with Candy's assessment that it -- I think it's actually kind of smart of them to wait until Saturday to do this and get a couple of days rolling into the convention.

KING: And, so, Steve Hayes, when you watch this all play out -- and you know the pros and cons of each of the candidates -- when you look at an electoral map, not the I need somebody who can challenge me, I need somebody who could be a president, when you look at an electoral map and you look at this Democratic short list, who jumps out at you as the guy you think, that one helps Obama?

STEPHEN HAYES, "THE WEEKLY STANDARD": Well, I think certainly Tim Kaine obviously would in Virginia. They have made no bones about the fact that they want to compete in Virginia. They think it's a winnable state.

I think the comments that Senator Obama made this morning suggest that it probably isn't somebody like a Tim Kaine. I thought his comments to CBS this morning suggested that he was leaning more towards somebody with experience, somebody who could challenge him, sort of has the stature, the gravitas, was the word that we threw around with Dick Cheney eight years ago, to help him in foreign policy and national security crises.

So, it suggests to me that he might leaning that way. But, as Gloria said, nobody is talking.

KING: And, James, let me ask you the question I put to Candy. You ran the Clinton campaign back in '92. Is there any drawback to this long wait, to keeping people waiting so long?

CARVILLE: I don't think so.

And I think that Al Gore is considered probably the most successful vice president ever. He carried the popular vote by over half a million votes after being in power for eight powers. But I think given the kind of summer that they have had, and it makes some sense holding out until Saturday. They have certainly shown the country that they can keep a secret.

And it will give them a two-day roll in. I don't think it's a big deal. I don't think any election is decided on the timing of the vice presidential pick. But to the extent you can read a tea leaf from this, it's a mild positive reading.

BORGER: You know, John, it seems to me the longer you hold out, the more it might make sense that you're having somebody the country is already a little bit familiar with, that if it is a well-known senator, for example, that you don't have to kind of roll them out in the way you would if you picked somebody that was less well known.

KING: Carville for veep, that's what you're saying, right?

(LAUGHTER)

BORGER: Absolutely.

(CROSSTALK)

CARVILLE: Suppose he surprises us.

(CROSSTALK)

HAYES: I would like to cover that campaign.

CARVILLE: But suppose we get a pick, a surprise pick.

HAYES: Yes, I would like to cover that campaign if James was vice president.

(CROSSTALK)

KING: I would be with you on the planes, James.

(CROSSTALK)

CARVILLE: I wouldn't vet very well, John.

(LAUGHTER)

KING: All right. Gloria, Steve, and James, stick around. We have got more to talk about.

And if you think you know who Obama will pick, you still have time to go to CNN.com/electioncenter, and click on the veepstakes link. You can predict a winner and check the political fortunes of every possible running mate.

For the Democrats, Senator Joe Biden and Evan Bayh are the top choices at this moment tonight. And you have more time to guess about the Republicans. Mitt Romney still the top choice, followed by Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty.

You hear the off-and-on music in the background, the rehearsals and preparations going on here in the Pepsi Center as we speak. It's a little loud in here.

Up next, Hillary Clinton in her own words. Does she want to be on the ticket with Barack Obama? Her answer when we come back. Also, with the polls showing the race a dead heat, Obama has got his work cut out for him. We will take a look at what he needs to do next week when the eyes of the nation will be on him.

This is the ELECTION CENTER live from Denver.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KING: You're looking at a live picture here of Wilmington, Delaware. That is the home of Delaware Senator Joseph Biden.

Just a few minutes ago, a police car pulled up, which of course got all the camera crews on veep stakeout excited. We know Senator Biden's wife is there, his daughter as well. We have not seen the senator, again, just a few moments ago, a police car pulling up in front of the home of Delaware Senator Joe Biden.

We have extensive coverage and stakeouts. And I can bet those on the short list are getting a bit annoyed at them right now, but we're keeping a close watch on everyone we think and know is on Barack Obama's short list.

And we will continue to bring you developments as the hour unfolds.

We're live here at Denver's Pepsi Center, where the Democratic Convention kicks off on Monday. It could be full of high moments, but also potential pitfalls, for Barack Obama. He has got to unify his party, make the speech of a lifetime, and, he hopes, take a commanding lead in what is now a dead heat race against John McCain, high stakes indeed.

Joe Johns is here to tell us all about this challenging week for the Obama campaign.

Joe, when you look at the -- talk to the Democrats, look at the stakes for Barack Obama, what jumps out, first and foremost?

JOE JOHNS, CNN SENIOR CORRESPONDENT: Well the first thing is, a lot of people are saying he's underperforming, that what you see is an electorate that is trending Democratic, more or less, and, somehow or other, Barack Obama is not doing as well as a lot of people think he ought to.

So, that's one of his big challenges, of course. Now, you come to this convention, this is always something that people come to and try to sell themselves. The candidate wants to sell himself to the American public. They don't really nominate people here anymore. They just confirm the nomination.

So, this is Barack Obama's opportunity to sell himself to the American public in a way that he will probably not have another chance, because, as you know, we don't really filter this message the way so many other debates and things that happen along the way we tend to do. We tend to filter. KING: OK. And that's a great opportunity for him. He's unfiltered. He gets to give that big speech at Invesco Field on the final night. The world gets to see him, but what he cares about, most voters here in the United States.

But what about the obstacles? And I'm assuming you would agree with me, the biggest one is inside this hall, managing the Clinton relationship, taking other steps necessary to bring a party that had a pretty good, feisty, and divisive primary season.

JOHNS: You know, you talk to a lot of the Clinton supporters, there are people who are still very angry. They're very upset about the way Hillary Clinton was handled, the way Hillary Clinton was handled by the media, they say, the things that Barack Obama said.

People talk about the sort of underlying sexist message that they heard again and again and again with Hillary Clinton. Whether it's true or not, there are those perceptions. And, so, that's one of the things that he needs to deal with. He has to deal with trying to unify the party and deal with those people who are upset about the way she was handled.

KING: Well, that's part of the equation.

Hold on for a second, Joe, because Hillary Clinton doesn't do many interviews these days. But, today, she did answer reporters' questions during a stop at the New York State Fair up in Syracuse. Now, she brushed aside questions about whether she's interested in the vice presidency.

But she did have some interesting thoughts about Barack Obama and the criticism that maybe she's not doing enough to help his campaign.

Let's listen to some of what Senator Clinton said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON (D), NEW YORK: I have participated in 10 presidential elections since I have been an adult. And Democrats have only won three of them.

And I obviously know the person who won two out of those three. It is hard to win a general election. Even though it should be, by all measures, clearly time for the Republicans to basically apologize to the country for what they have done to us for eight years, they're going to use every tactic they can to try to keep the White House.

That means we have to work really hard, which is why I am working hard, and traveling hard, and talking to people, and enlisting their support, and making the case for Senator Obama. So, I'm not going to speculate about what the margin will be. I'm just confident we're going to win.

QUESTION: Well, Senator, what does he need in a vice presidential candidate then to help carry that in November? What does he need in the number-two spot? CLINTON: Whatever he decides he needs. That's for him to decide.

(CROSSTALK)

CLINTON: I am not in that arena. This is his decision. And I respect him to make it however he believes is best for him and for our party and for the country.

QUESTION: Do you feel like you have been pushing enough for him? Some people say they think that you should say Barack Obama all the time and that you haven't been mentioning him enough and rally enough support for him?

CLINTON: Well, I think, again, that's perhaps a misperception about both what I have done and the fact that I have probably done more for Senator Obama than anybody in my position has ever done by this time.

And maybe it's because I know what other people have done and the fact that very often these contests went all the way to the convention. They were contested. There were fights. And most people never got around to endorsing the winning candidate until the convention, sometimes even later.

So, I think it's a fair assessment that I have done more than anybody has done in my position. And I intend to keep doing everything that I can.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: "Everything that I can," she says, Joe Johns.

You were talking a bit earlier about the challenge from the Obama side of managing the Clinton relationship. Do they think that she's doing everything she can to take her side of the equation?

JOHNS: Well, you have to take her at her word, first of all.

When you look at the Clintons over the years, they have been criticized. They have taken a lot of hits. And they're very sensitive about it. Senator Clinton herself is very sensitive about it.

On the other hand, there is that question. These are political minds. They're very smart people. And they, too, perhaps have some inner feelings of hurt yet with the way she was handled.

When we look at this convention, we do know that both of the Clintons will get an appearance here, before the people in this audience. So, that matters, to some degree. She still has, she says, dozens of people who are whipping to try to keep the Hillary Clinton people in line, keep them supporting Obama, make sure nothing bad happens.

So, at the end of the day, at the end of the week, we will know whether there was some incident or something that we, the media, seized on that indicates, OK, Hillary Clinton wasn't that helpful. But my guess, the story is going to be unity.

KING: We will keep pursuing the reporting on that question, the Clinton factor.

And you see that live picture right there in Wilmington, Delaware. The police car just pulled away outside the house of Delaware Senator Joseph Biden. A lot of signals putting to Senator Biden as the possible vice presidential pick tonight, but we don't have that definitive reporting yet. We're waiting for the big text message, some others still in the running. And we will keep making the reporting calls and keep in touch with locations like Senator Biden's house.

Now, Senator Clinton says she will do everything she can for Obama. You just heard her. But what does he need to do for himself? Our Bill Schneider has been poring over the latest polling data. When we come back, he will tell you what the voters think are Obama's weak spots.

This is the ELECTION CENTER, live from Denver.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KING: No question, there's excitement in the Democratic Party tonight, but also a fair degree of anxiety.

Barack Obama won the nomination by proclaiming himself the candidate of change. But now some are wondering just what that change is really all about, this as Republicans paint Obama as an inexperienced celebrity, unprepared for the monumental challenges the next president will face. So, how do the voters see Obama? Where is he most vulnerable?

Senior political analyst Bill Schneider is here to take a closer look.

WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: You know, Obama is a new face on the national scene. That's his strength and his weakness.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SCHNEIDER (voice-over): Where is Barack Obama vulnerable? You can see it in the polls. Voters are not sure Obama has the right experience to be president. Only 44 percent say he does. Eighty percent believe John McCain does.

Obama's answer? Judgment counts, not just experience. Obama does not have a military background. Voters have doubts about his ability to be commander in chief. Sixty percent say they have very little or just some confidence in Obama as commander in chief. They have more confidence in McCain, who has a military background, but not that much more. Nearly half say they have doubts about McCain, too. The big difference is over who would be better at handling an international crisis, like the one in the former Soviet Republic of Georgia. McCain is preferred by almost 2-1.

Obama has warned voters:

OBAMA: What they're going to try to argue is that, somehow, I'm too risky.

SCHNEIDER: Voters do consider Obama a riskier choice than McCain. Obama is the candidate of change, after all, and change always involves risk.

The polls also reveal that some criticisms of Obama have not gotten much traction. Obama's critics have called him arrogant and presumptuous, particularly during his European tour last month.

OBAMA: I come to Berlin...

SCHNEIDER: Do voters buy that criticism? Obama expresses outrage when his patriotism is challenged.

OBAMA: But we can have an honest disagreement. Don't you dare suggest that I'm less patriotic than you.

SCHNEIDER: Do voters think Obama's patriotism is strong? They do. Just 35 percent...

(END VIDEOTAPE)

SCHNEIDER: Obama's vulnerabilities are the flip side of his strengths. He lacks experience. That's a problem. But he's also fresh and new, and that looks like an advantage.

KING: Big challenges coming in here to Denver.

Thanks very much, Bill.

And, as you can tell, those next few days here right in Denver could be make or break for Senator Obama. Next, we will look at the challenges he's facing closer and how Republicans are working overtime to raise -- that's right, raise -- expectations for the convention here in Denver.

Plus, an inside look at stagecraft, as the Democrats try to put on the greatest political show on earth.

Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KING: Tonight, I think it's fair to say the bar is set very high for Barack Obama's Denver convention.

Obama has only a few short days to unify, energize his party, and show the voters he's a better choice than John McCain. I want to bring back tonight's panel, James Carville, Stephen Hayes, and Gloria Borger.

And I'm going to read to everybody.

And I will go to you, James, first, because sometimes you're viewed as the Democratic version of Karl Rove. Karl Rove says this on the Republican side. Here's his advice to Barack Obama from an op-ed.

"Mr. Obama's performance this summer had added to voter doubts, putting a large burden on his acceptance speech. There are challenges in a speech staged with 75,000 screaming partisans at Invesco Field. Will it deepen the impression that he's more of a rock star than a person of serious public purpose, or can Mr. Obama have the serious conversation he needs to reassure Americans?"

James, are you worried that the Democratic celebrity -- I mean, the Republican celebrity hits, are they taking hold?

CARVILLE: Well, I don't know if the Republican celebrity hits are taking hold, but I think that what Senator Obama has got to do is, one, define himself as the agent of change, and all the attacks of him are by desperate people and the status quo, two, own the economy.

There's not a single piece of evidence that the Republicans are better on any economic performance than the Democrats. And there's every piece of evidence that this administration has been a disaster, and Senator McCain reflects that.

And, third, I think he has got to show people that he has some anger or something about what's happened to the country, not much -- I think he's got to show some kind of disgust at what's happened to the country much more than he does when his patriotism is attacked, because people are in a -- don't like what's happened to the United States under this administration.

And he has got to show that he understands that. And if he does those three things, I think he will be -- he will be -- he will be fine coming out of Denver.

KING: And Steve Hayes, the picture, the Invesco Field picture, without a doubt will be wow, 75,000, sometimes in upwards of 80,000 people we're told. So the picture will be a remarkable sight. But is there a downside to that when the Republicans are trying to create this inexperience, ineffective celebrity?

HAYES: Yeah, you know, there could be. Let's be honest. I think any candidate would take having 75,000 people at Invesco Field. It's a good thing for Barack Obama. That said, I think the McCain campaign has done probably as well as they could with this by using the celebrity ads. Painting Barack Obama as a celebrity, as somebody who is not serious. They keep showing these flashes of crowds cheering for him, him sort of basking in the glow of this audience love. So if people associate that with what they see when they look at Barack Obama giving his speech, the McCain campaign may have made some dent in what is sure to be I think a pretty magnificent performance by Obama.

KING: They're also trying, Gloria, to shape the expectations. The strategy memo conveniently leaked to reporters today. You know, we never, these are very top secret kind of things. They're saying he's going to get a huge bounce, this is going to be historic. Let me read you a little bit from it. "On Thursday, Obama will give a great speech. This had been his trademark. The press will sing his praises and remark on his historic address and Obama's place in history. The coverage will be impenetrable and will undoubtedly impact the polls. We believe Obama will see a significant bump and believe it's reasonable to expect a 15-point bounce out of this convention in this political environment."

We get spun all the time by these campaigns. Do you expect a 15- point bounce?

BORGER: No, I don't expect a 15-point bounce. When was the last time we saw a 15-point bounce coming out a convention speech?

KING: Carville can tell you they got a big one back in 1992.

BORGER: Yeah, that may have been the last time actually we saw a bounce. Probably it was James's doing. But no, you're not going to get that big a bounce. But I do think Obama has got to do two things. He's kind of got to give his state of the union speech in a way. He's got to let people know where he stands on substance. But he also has to have this personal conversation with the American people and start reintroducing himself. Because what the McCain campaign has done is raise question marks about Barack Obama. He's got to answer those questions.

KING: We've been waiting a long time for this news, and it's finally here. Gloria, Steve, thanks so much. I think Ross Perot may have had a bit to do with that bounce. We'll talk more about that down the road. Now we know the McCain, Obama race has gotten down and dirty. We've gone from Paris Hilton, Britney Spears, to the number of John McCain's homes. And things are just getting started. It's only August. We'll go to the war room and find out just how bad it might get.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KING: Still ahead from here in Denver, what the Republicans plan to do while the Democrats have their big party. First, though, back in New York, Erica Hill has tonight's preview. Hi, Erica.

ERICA HILL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: John, Tropical Storm Fay is now blamed for seven deaths. In Jacksonville today, a nursing home was evacuated as the St. John's River overflowed. In fact, northern Florida is so waterlogged tonight, you can see alligators and snakes in suburban streets. Fay is now making the way along the Florida panhandle. The state is asking for $20 million in federal aid.

There is a tentative deal to get all American troops out of Iraq three years from now. U.S. and Iraqi negotiators agreed on plans for a pullout by the end of 2011. Final approval on that could come next month.

A home-built plane crashed and burned near Las Vegas today killing three people. The plane slammed into a suburban home causing an intense fire. You can see that there. Two people in that he house died. The pilot was also killed. The FAA says the pilot reported trouble just after take off.

And prosecutors offering Detroit's mayor a deal, he says no. Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick is accused of roughing up two detectives. Prosecutors offered to drop one of the top assault charges if the mayor resigned. Kilpatrick refused. He is also facing charges of conspiracy, perjury and other charges in a separate case, John.

KING: That's an amazing case. Thanks, Erica.

The McCain campaign on high alert tonight ready to dig for dirt if there is any on Obama's top contenders for vice president. Find out what they've discovered next. And it's all about the presentation. We'll take you into the Democrats' flashy setup here in Denver. Political stage craft goes high-tech. This is THE ELECTION CENTER.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KING: Barack Obama's big announcement could come any time now. You can bet the Republicans are watching closely, trying to get ready for a hard hitting response. CNN's Ed Henry has been working the phones with the McCain campaign and other Republican sources. He joins us now live from Washington. So, Ed, they're waiting with the rest of us, doing research. What do you think they've uncovered so far?

ED HENRY, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well John, they're just as anxious because they want to hit send on those computer files they've gathered on all the various people on the short list.

Let's take Joe Biden as one quick example. He's getting a lot of attention. Republicans tell me they want to try to turn the asset into a liability by claiming that that national security experience if he's picked should be at the top of the ticket, instead of the bottom. And they're going to remind voters that on Pakistan, for example, Biden once said that Obama's approach was naive. They want to remind voters that when it came to funding the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq last year, Obama voted no, where as Biden voted yes.

And the opposition research file also now in this day and age is going to have all kinds of YouTube videos ranging from an ABC News debate last summer to a fascinating commercial that Joe Biden himself ran in 1988 during his first presidential run in 1988.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GEORGE STEPHANOPOLOUS, ABC NEWS CORRESPONDENT: You're asked is he ready. You said, "I think he can be ready, but right now I don't believe he is. The presidency is not something that lends itself to on the job training. SEN. JOE BIDEN (D), DELAWARE: I think I stand by the statement.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The White House isn't the place to learn how to deal with international crisis, the balance of power, war and peace, and the economic future of the next generation. A president has got to know the territory. But that's not enough. To win the White House, the Democratic nomination --

(END VIDEO CLIP)

HENRY: It's interesting that that Biden campaign ad 20 years ago sounds pretty similar to some of the ads we've been seeing John McCain run this very month, saying Barack Obama essentially not ready to be commander in chief.

Make no mistake though, Republicans say they're ready for anyone. If it's Evan Bayh, Tim Kaine, they'll be just as aggressive in their rapid response, they promise, as the Obama camp is going to be this weekend in their rollout, John.

KING: Ed, we're going to show a shot of the Democratic National Committee Chairman Howard Dean. He's down on the floor of the convention center. We'll show that with our cameras if we can. And as we do, he's touring the floor. There you see him. I'm going to ask you a question, Ed.

As we watch Howard Dean on the floor here, and he's, of course, in charge of the big show here, even though it's Barack Obama's show. The McCain campaign obviously, we keep hearing the senator is closer and closer to making his own decision, but will they make an adjustment? Do they plan on making an adjustment once they know who Obama's pick is?

HENRY: People close to the camp say that's one of the advantages that they actually have, as you know, being the second to go. That they will make any adjustment they have to. That's why they're not in a rush. There was a "Time" magazine report just earlier in the day, late last night, basically saying that Senator McCain had all but decided it was going to be Romney. And they quickly shot that down because they said Senator McCain has not made up his mind. There's no point in doing that right now. He's going to let this play out a little bit. And they say there's still pretty healthy debate going on behind the scenes. Some saying Romney should be the pick, in large part because Michigan in those 17 electoral votes. Others saying Tim Pawlenty should get it, a younger, more vigorous candidate perhaps. And others say that Senator McCain still things Tom Ridge, even though he supports abortion rights, that that could still be an interesting pick. So this is far from done yet John.

KING: Far from done, Ed Henry, thanks. Now depending on who Barack Obama picks as a running mate, one or more crucial swing states could come into play.

Let's take a look at the electoral maps we have right here. Now one of the big questions, one of the persons we know is on Barack Obama's short list is Tim Kaine, the governor of Virginia, 13 electoral votes there. We have it ranked as a tossup right now. If we gave this state over and made it blue for Barack Obama, he would go up to 234 electoral votes. There's another reason Barack Obama likes Tim Kaine. He's a Catholic. They think he could go up and help in Pennsylvania, which we already have leaning blue right now. We also think he could help out here in places in the Midwest.

But let's take Virginia back and put it back in the tossup range here. Who else is on that short list? Now Joe Biden is from the state of Delaware. That is a big Democratic state. No expectation that Joe Biden could turn this electorally. But again, they think he could go in -- he's originally born in Pennsylvania. So they think he could go in there and help keep Pennsylvania blue, that's the state that the Republicans have been targeting. They also think he could go out here into the Midwest in a lot of the blue-collar communities down into West Virginia where Hillary Clinton did very well. They believe Joe Biden would have the blue-voter collar appeal.

Another person on the list of course is Indiana Senator Evan Bayh. If the Republicans could somehow spin Indiana over and turn that from a red state to a blue state, that would help them in the electoral college map. And of course, the Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius also has been on that list. That's Nebraska. We have to come down here to Kansas, long a red state. Six electoral votes there. If they pick Kathleen Sebelius the goal there would be she's likely to turn that one over. We have to do that one to get that to turn over. See, we can turn that blue if we try hard enough.

One of the calculations for Barack Obama as he makes that final choice and makes the phone call in the coming hours is can his pick help him change this map? One of the calculations, of course. And of course John McCain has very similar calculations.

Now polls show that voters hate it when campaigns go negative. But elections show that going negative is what works. Coming up in the war room, the latest negative ads from both campaigns. It's getting rough out there. Stay with us. You're in THE ELECTION CENTER.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

KING: "LARRY KING LIVE" coming up in a few minutes, more insight on Obama's potential running mate. Larry also talks to a famous mogul as well. Larry, tell us more.

LARRY KING, CNN ANCHOR: John, you wonder how much longer can this be kept a secret? Is the suspense killing you? We're talking about Barack Obama and his pick for vice president. We're going to find out why the announcement is taking so long, or we'll guess at why it's taking so long. Is it a rule that he has to this announce? Could he announce next Wednesday? John, you know it. We'll figure it out at the top of the hour.

KING: Thanks, Larry. We'll be watching. He could announce whomever he wants I guess before Wednesday. We think it will come tomorrow morning. Remember when Obama and McCain promised they'd run a positive campaign? Well check out the candidates latest ads. Coming up, how this race could go negative and more negative all the way to November.

And the Democrats try to dazzle us. We'll show you why everything here at the Pepsi Center is a matter of very careful stage craft. This is THE ELECTION CENTER, live.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R-AZ), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: And I'm proud. And I think we've run an honorable campaign. And we're also going to prove that negative attack ads don't work.

SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: One of things I'm proud of at the beginning of this campaign, I said we've got to run a different kind of campaign. So we're not going to go around doing negative ads. We're going to keep it positive.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Maybe that could be the first promise broken in this campaign. Both campaigns promised to take the high road. That kind of pledge doesn't always last very long in politics. As the race has tightened, the campaign has gone more negative. So how negative will it get?

In our war room tonight, Ed Rollins, CNN contributor and the former campaign chairman for Mike Huckabee and Robert Zimmerman, a CNN political contributor and a New York state delegate at next week's convention. Not the best seats here for you in the New York delegation, Bob.

Let me just start first with the impression the voters have about this. I want you to look at this NBC/"Wall Street Journal" survey. Which candidate is running a negative campaign? Twenty-nine percent say McCain is. Only 5 percent say Obama is, 41 percent say neither, 6 percent not sure and 19 percent say both. I suspect the 19 percent is going to grow over time.

But Ed, let me start with you. Is that a fair assessment? Is the McCain the more negative candidate right now?

ED ROLLINS, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Well, I think he gets more publicity on the free media. I think that's what drove a lot of this. The bottom line here is that this campaign has been very much about how do you take your ads, put them on Facebook, run them a few places and get them on television to be discussed by shows like yours and network shows and others. I think there was a lot of that when Obama went to Europe. And I think that to a certain extent created an oppression.

KING: Bob Zimmerman, is that a fair assessment in your view? You're the Democrat so I'm sure you're going to say McCain is more negative. But Obama has done in his ads lately -- will he catch up I guess is the best way to ask the question? ROBERT ZIMMERMAN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Well I think after John McCain challenged Barack Obama's patriotism, yes, I'm a bit inclined to think McCain is running a bit more of a negative campaign.

But the point here and I think Ed's point is very valid that in fact these negative spots that you're seeing really are designed to drive the free media. The free media is really what's going to have an impact in terms of moving the meter in polling. But there's no question that you're going to see both candidates as effective counter punches.

I for one am glad to see the Democrats draw a very clear distinction from the Republicans and take them on when they're attacked personally. But the more important point here is the fact that this is a time of international and domestic crisis. And it's the candidate who can speak to those big ideas I think is going to move the electorate.

KING: Let's listen and have our viewers listen to just a snippet from two recent campaign ads, one from each campaign. Take a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Call it country club economics. How many houses does he own? John McCain says he can't even remember anymore. Well, it's seven.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Celebrities don't have to worry about family budgets. But we sure do. He's ready to raise your taxes, but not ready to lead.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KING: Let's start first with that Obama ad. Ed Rollins, I assume you think John McCain should know how many houses he owns. Is that a vulnerability? You should him with George H.W. Bush who of course 1992 lost the campaign about the economy. Smart for the Democrats to jump in on that one and say John McCain doesn't know his own family finances, how can he help you with yours?

ROLLINS: It's a very minor blip at this point in time and no one's going to care in the final. What people are going to care about is John McCain got an economic program that can keep me from losing my house? I think the bottom line here is you always have to remember negative ads and everybody says they hate negative ads, pretty much make your own side feel good.

Democrats all love those ads. There's no Republicans are moving away from McCain because of those ads and vice versa. And at the end of the day, you get down to about 5 or 6 percent of the vote that don't make up their minds until late and that's when you really pour the oil on the fire. And I think the tragedy here is that they started very early on the negative. You never put the genie back in the bottle.

ZIMMERMAN: I think what's going to be interesting is this type of campaign is the defining moments of this campaign are going to be the presidential debates. The conventions that we're going to be coming into in the next two weeks are designed to rally the bases of both parties. And neither party has truly gotten their base rallied behind their nominee yet. That's what these conventions are designed to do and I think while it's true that negative campaigns help the people -- help those who are on the attack feel better about themselves, the real challenge is going to be to go after the Independent vote in the general election.

KING: Let me ask each of you quickly. We're almost out of time, but in 15 seconds or so with you Ed Rollins first, you saw that McCain ad. They're essentially saying Barack Obama - in the past they've called attacks has been liberal. They say attacks has been celebrity. What does Barack Obama do at this convention to try to reflect that argument from the Republicans?

ROLLINS: Well, he's got to go out and show leadership. I think the truth of the matter is he's got to articulate who he is and what he wants to do. He hasn't done that very effectively lately. The big complaint about him getting all the media coverage is most people don't know who he is. And I think to a certain extent, that's part of this convention.

ZIMMERMAN: John?

KING: Ed and Bob, thanks so much. I've got to go there, we'll out of time tonight. We'll have more of this in the days ahead. And Bob, I'll see you here in Denver. At a political convention, everything is part of the stage craft. We'll take you behind the scenes next.

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KING: Some new developments to show you in the Obama watch as we call it that tonight. The senator went out to dinner in downtown Chicago this evening. Outside, reporters held up their cell phones and shouted, "where's the text"? At first Obama acted like he didn't hear them. After they shouted even louder, Obama looked over at the reporters, laughed at their attempt to get him to say something. He's having a lot of fun with this.

We also have crews standing by outside the homes of the major contenders to be Obama's running mate. There's been some activity tonight outside of Senator Joe Biden's home in Wilmington, Delaware. We're also outside Senator Evan Bayh's home in Washington. It's pretty quiet there at the moment. Also a camera watching Obama's campaign jet. It's at the runway at Chicago's Midway Airport. If anything happens, you'll see it right here on CNN.

Now next week's convention here in Denver will be more than a bunch of speeches. It's all stage craft, right down to which delegates get the best seats. We've got a lot of activity here in the hall tonight. I'll tell you our platform is right in the center of the hall. The California delegation here, the Pennsylvania delegation here. We're right down in the middle of the action. We'll be anchoring coverage from down here. And Joe Johns is out on the floor, key battleground state, Florida. Joe, how'd they do in the seating plan, Joe?

JOE JOHNS, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well let me tell you, it's looking pretty good although there's not a single person out here, John. Now let's look at the stage right now. You can see Howard Dean, you just talked about him a little while ago taking pictures and whatnot. But look at what is behind him. I mean, that thing is huge. It's a T.V. screen. It's actually three T.V. screens the size of a house, 103 feet tall. You'd hate to have to deal with the horizontal hole in that thing, wouldn't you? Well, they unveiled this thing just this morning. It's the centerpiece of the set. And let's listen in to how it went.

(MUSIC PLAYING)

JOHNS: Now, you tell me, but some people were saying the music was a little shlocky. Right now they're playing a nice mix of smooth jazz or what have you. The funny thing about it, it's only going to be here a little while. And you know, this is the kind of thing you would really like to have around to watch the Super Bowl. Back to you, John.

KING: Super Bowl, looks at the moment like a mix of "Star Wars" and Las Vegas to me. Joe Johns down on the floor, thanks.

Stay with CNN throughout this high stakes weekend. The best political team on television, we'll bring you Barack Obama's big announcement, his rally tomorrow in Springfield, comprehensive coverage of the Democratic National Convention. "LARRY KING LIVE" though starts right now.