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Campbell Brown
Vice Presidential Candidates Prepare for Debate; Senate Votes on Bailout Bill
Aired October 01, 2008 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Hi there, everybody.
Tonight, breaking news, a big story we're tracking for you. At this very moment, we're closely watching the U.S. Senate, where, in a few minutes, senators will vote on their own version of the massive $700 billion financial bailout. We're going to join the high-stakes roll call vote as soon as it begins.
Right now, we want to show you a picture. This is live the Senate floor, a lot of arm-twisting down there today. This is what it is, an in-your-face power play hurriedly put together by senators after the bailout failed in the House of Representatives on Monday.
If the bailout passes tonight, it will put incredible pressure on House members to change their minds to get on board. Tonight's vote is such a big deal, the presidential candidates, John McCain, Barack Obama, came back to Washington. McCain will cast his first Senate vote since April. Obama and his running mate, Joe Biden, who is also there, haven't voted since July.
So, we're going to watch this play out live during our hour. We will have the latest for you from our correspondents and they're on Capitol Hill. All that coming up in a moment.
But before we get to that, I have got to mention the other big event on the horizon, debate night, Sarah Palin vs. Joe Biden. It happens tomorrow night. We have of course seen Joe Biden debate national and international issues numerous times.
By comparison, we still know relatively little about Sarah Palin's positions. You have all heard me urge the McCain campaign to free Sarah Palin, so that all of us could get to know the vice presidential candidate better and be equipped to make an informed decision about her qualifications.
Well, we have learned more over the last week by virtue of an interview she gave to CBS's Katie Couric. We're going to share a new and equally fascinating exchange from that interview tonight involving the Supreme Court. It may leave you wondering just how informed Palin needs to be to do the job she's campaigning for. A lot of people are going to be talking about this.
And there's obviously enormous interest in tomorrow night's debate. I will not lie to you. I cannot wait. We are going to be talking it through with our panel over the next hour.
But we do begin tonight with that breaking news.
The Senate roll call just minutes away, the roll call about to start.
Congressional correspondent Jessica Yellin on Capitol Hill watching the debate for us.
Jessica, what's going on right now? Give us the latest.
JESSICA YELLIN, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Campbell, senators have been making statements as part of the debate on the floor, almost all of them in support of this bill. Very few senators oppose it. It's expected to pass easily tonight.
Now, I will tell you there's a real sense of excitement for this evening's vote, a full house, lots of reporters outside the chamber there, and senators telling us they're getting more calls from constituents about this bill than they even got about their Iraq war vote. So, they know voters really care.
The actual vote is expected to happen about 30 to 40 minutes from now. But you know, with Senate time, you can never predict.
(LAUGHTER)
BROWN: All right.
We should mention our two presidential candidates back in Washington to vote on the bill. McCain discussed the bailout at an event earlier today. Obama also talked about the Senate -- or addressed, rather, the Senate this evening. Let's take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R-AZ), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: This is a moment of great testing. At such moments, there are those on both sides of this debate who will act on principle.
Of course, there are always some who think first of their own interests, who calculate their own advantage, instead of rushing to the aid of their country. But, in the case of this bill, I'm confident there are enough people of goodwill in both parties to see America through this crisis.
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: I do not think this is going to be easy. It's not going to come without cost. We're all going to need to sacrifice.
We're all going to need to pull our weight, because now, more than ever, we're all in this together. That's part of what this crisis has taught us, that, at the end of the day, there's no real separation between Wall Street and Main Street.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: And, Jessica, both of these candidates here trying to express their leadership cred. Who has got the bigger burden?
YELLIN: Well, you know, Campbell, they both have a different kind of burden here.
For Barack Obama, he has made the economy such a prominent part of his campaign all along that he really needs to show that, with a Congress run by Democrats, he can help get things done. And he himself has sort of rolled up his sleeves, been making calls today to Democratic House members to make sure that they're on board this effort.
But John McCain in a sense has higher stakes here, because he threw his lot in with those House Republicans. Two-thirds of them voted against this bill. Fingers really were pointed at the Republicans for its failure in the House on Monday. Those guys have to get on this train in order for John McCain to come out of this smelling good.
BROWN: And, Jessica, we all know that the real battle is ultimately going to be in the House. That's where the opposition really lies. So talk us through the kind of arm-twisting going on behind the scenes tonight.
YELLIN: I will tell you, I told you that, on the Senate side, there was a sense of comfort. It's the exact opposite on the House side, people are calling each other, asking, what do you know? What are you hearing?
Republicans are trying to call their members, trying to get some of those two-third no votes into the yes column. We have heard some signs of progress because many of the measures in the Senate bill are actually more appealing to Republicans than to Democrats, but a real sense of frustration among Democrats in the House that they don't know which way the vote will go. They don't even know if they can schedule it. They're very uncertain at this hour.
BROWN: All right, Jessica, we're going to be checking back in with you throughout the evening as this progresses.
And we should mention, if tonight's vote is a big deal in Washington, well, it's an bigger one on Wall Street, where after days of stomach-churning ups and downs, it was relatively flat today.
With us now is our senior business correspondent, Ali Velshi, to give us guideposts on where the financial markets are now, what that means to us.
And, Ali, first, break it down for us, how this Senate bailout package is different from what failed to pass the House.
ALI VELSHI, CNN SENIOR BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: There are three major differences that you need to think about between this bill and the one that failed the House.
The first one is, we have talked about this for a couple nights, the increase in the limit that your deposits are insured in banks from $100,000 to $250,000, raising the FDIC insurance cap to $250,000, designed largely to help small businesses who need to keep more money in banks, but also psychologically let people know your money is safe in a bank.
Also, this FDIC money comes out of an insurance fund. This bill has a provision to allow the FDIC an unlimited amount of money from the U.S. Treasury to insure those bills. Second thing -- that's the same sort of related point. The second thing are tax cuts for individuals, including an extension of the alternative minimum tax exclusions.
This is stuff that was typically going to happen. So, a lot of the stuff that is being cut here -- and this is why this is more pleasing to some Republicans than Democrats -- were things that were already going to happen with a few extra sweeteners to convince Congress members to come over and vote for this.
The third thing is some taxes for businesses, some tax cuts for businesses, including tax cuts that encourage spending on alternative energy. These are also things that were being talked about. But they have been added to this bill to convince people that there's a reason to vote for this.
Now, we're unsure as to what the added value of some of these additions are. They may be up somewhere above $100 billion. But the $700 billion bailout package is essentially the same bailout package that failed on Monday.
BROWN: And, Ali, markets pretty flat today, I know, but a lot of members of Congress obviously hoping we're going to see a spike, or certainly Wall Street responding well after tonight.
VELSHI: Well, as you and I have talked about, Wall Street is almost a sideshow to the credit markets that are frozen up. We know that they are freezing further. Overnight lending rates between banks have shot up again. AT&T today reporting that it is finding it impossible to raise money for longer than overnight.
They need the short-term money for 30 days or 60 days. They have not been able to raise it. So, we understand these credit markets are tightening up. And even though the Dow was largely flat today, it was actually down a lot, and came back at the end of the day on the anticipation that we might have a deal.
BROWN: If they pass the Senate version tonight, does that do anything to the credit...
VELSHI: No.
BROWN: They want to see the whole deal done.
VELSHI: The question that you asked Jessica is exactly the question Wall Street wants to know. Will this get through the House?
BROWN: All right, Ali Velshi for us.
Ali, I know you're sticking around.
VELSHI: Yes.
BROWN: We have got a lot more to talk about later on.
Once again, we're going to bring you tonight's Senate vote live as it happens. But some other big political stories are also developing tonight. On the eve of the biggest debate of her life, this background -- this is not Sarah Palin's first high-pressure debate. In fact, she won the last one.
We will also look at Joe Biden's debating style for clues to see to what we may see coming up tomorrow.
Also, our latest poling from five key battleground states, and the bottom line, Obama has to be happy with some of the new numbers. We're going to take a look at those as we go into break.
And, also, take a look at this. Running for president or vice president makes your Senate attendance record look pretty bad. I guess, out of 209 roll call votes so far this year, John McCain has only voted 36 times. Barack Obama voted 72 times, Biden 176.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. TOM COBURN (R), OKLAHOMA: A child born today in this country facing $400,000 in taxes for things they will never get a benefit from -- $400,000. Who in this country starting out even could absorb that debt, pay the interest on it, and ever hope to own a home or have a college education?
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Oklahoma Republican Tom Coburn and other senators vote tonight on the $700 billion Wall Street bailout, the historic vote minutes from now. We're going to bring that to you live.
We're also looking ahead, though, to tomorrow's vice presidential debate between Governor Sarah Palin and Senator Joe Biden.
Tonight, CBS News carried more of Katie Couric's interview with Palin. One exchange involved Supreme Court cases, including Roe vs. Wade. You need to take a look at this.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, "CBS EVENING NEWS")
KATIE COURIC, HOST, "CBS EVENING NEWS": Why in your view is Roe v. Wade a bad decision?
GOV. SARAH PALIN (R-AK), VICE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: I think it should be a states issue, not federal government mandating yes or no on such an important. I'm, in that sense, a federalist, where I believe that states should have more say in the laws of their lands in individual areas. Now, foundationally, also, though, it's no secret that I'm pro- life, that I believe that a culture of life is very important for this country. And, personally, that's what I would like to see further embraced by America.
COURIC: Do you think there's an inherent right to privacy in the Constitution?
PALIN: I do. Yes, I do.
COURIC: That's the cornerstone of Roe v. Wade.
PALIN: I do. And I believe that individual states can best handle what the people within the different constituencies in the 50 states would like to see their will ushered in, in an issue like that.
COURIC: What other Supreme Court decisions do you disagree with?
PALIN: Well, let's see.
There's -- of course, in the great history of America, there have been rulings that there's never going to be absolute consensus by every American. And there are those issues, again, like Roe v. Wade, where I believe are best held on a state level and addressed there. So, going through the history of America, there would be others, but...
COURIC: Can you think of any?
PALIN: Well, I would think of any, again, that could best be dealt with on a more local level maybe I would take issue with.
But, you know, as a mayor and then as a governor, and even as a vice president, if I'm so privileged to serve, I wouldn't be in a position of changing those things, but in supporting the law of the land as it reads today.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Breaking it down for us tonight, we have got CNN political analyst Gloria Borger from Washington, Joe Klein, political columnist for "TIME" magazine here with me in New York, and we should mention its latest issue is featuring the financial crisis, also CNN contributor and Republican strategist Ed Rollins, former chairman of Mike Huckabee's presidential campaign.
Welcome, everybody.
Ed, let me start with you.
In fairness, probably most people can't name a Supreme Court case. But most people are not campaigning to be vice president.
ED ROLLINS, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: Running for vice president, right. Right.
BROWN: How bad is it?
ROLLINS: Well, this series of interviews has been terrible for her. Obviously, there's one a night. And I think, to a certain extent, the problem is, the country has had only three impressions of her, one when she was announced. The second was a great acceptance speech, and then these little interviews that have been -- big interviews that have come over the last few weeks.
Tomorrow night, obviously, she's got to hit a home run to get back in this game. And I think the expectations are low, and my sense is, she's a big personality, and she needs to get out and prove to people that she knows a lot about a lot of subjects.
BROWN: Joe, what did you make of it?
JOE KLEIN, COLUMNIST, "TIME": Well, even more shocking than not being able to cite another Supreme Court case was that she was opposed to Roe v. Wade, but she was in favor of a right to privacy, which was the essential rationale for passing Roe v. Wade.
So, if she...
BROWN: Which left a lot of us sort of going, huh?
KLEIN: Yes. If she says she is a federalist, she would get drummed out of the Federalist Society, the conservative legal group, just on the basis of that answer. I mean, this is embarrassing. This is really, really embarrassing, and it's hurting the McCain ticket very badly, I think.
BROWN: Gloria?
GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: And when you consider that the issue of judges is so important to conservatives around this country, just who would you put on the Supreme Court, why do you think the Supreme Court needs to change, I mean, that's what makes this answer so much more devastating, because, while you can't expect her to name a particular Supreme Court case, although I would argue you might, there are issues like affirmative action, for example, issues taken regarding Guantanamo and the war on terror.
John McCain has been very, very vocal on those, campaign finance reform, part of it challenged by the Supreme Court. John McCain is a big campaign finance guy. So, even in terms of what John McCain believes and what conservatives believe, I think this is a real problem.
BROWN: Let me just talk you through how she is countering this, the analysis you're hearing right now.
She's been making the rounds on conservative talk radio. And she told Hugh Hewitt -- we don't have that interview right now, but I will quote it quote.
She says -- quote -- this is Palin -- "It's time that normal Joe Six-Pack American is finally represented in the position of vice presidency. I think that's kind of taken some people off guard. They're out of sorts. They're ticked off about it, but it's motivation for John McCain and I to work that much harder to make sure our ticket is victorious, we government back on the side of people, of Joe Six-Packs like me."
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: Now, OK, before you mock...
(CROSSTALK)
KLEIN: I want to give you a historical reference.
BROWN: There are a lot of Joe Six-Packs out who might resonate -- who might feel like this resonates.
KLEIN: Well, I will answer that. There are a lot of Joe Six- Packs out there who are scared to death about the economy right now and are shaking in their boots that this woman might -- is going to be a heartbeat away from the president.
But this reminds me of Senator Roman Hruska from Nebraska who, during the Nixon administration...
BROWN: Ed is laughing. Go ahead.
KLEIN: ... when -- when...
ROLLINS: That's only because we're the only two old enough to remember this.
BROWN: To remember this.
(LAUGHTER)
(CROSSTALK)
KLEIN: But, you know, Nixon -- I think it was Judge Carswell he appointed to the Supreme Court, didn't make it. He was a dunce.
BROWN: Right. Right.
KLEIN: And Roman Hruska said, it's time that we had some mediocrity on the Supreme Court.
I mean, this is nonsense.
(LAUGHTER)
ROLLINS: Well, fortunately, the Senate has many that are representing mediocrity today.
KLEIN: They certainly do.
(LAUGHTER)
(CROSSTALK)
KLEIN: But I don't think you want it in the White House.
BROWN: So, Gloria, what can -- Ed mentioned this earlier -- that, look, she did have a moment, when she gave that acceptance speech.
BORGER: Sure. Sure.
BROWN: How does she regain that moment, if you will, if you're her strategist or you're her adviser, going into tomorrow night?
BORGER: Well, first of all -- and I think this is very difficult -- she has got to get her self-confidence back. She has got to figure out who she is again.
And I think what they have got to do during this debate is keep her on the general themes. What she's essentially saying is, I'm an outsider. That's good for America. I'm a breath of fresh air.
And she's got to sort of get to that over and over and over again. And, on the generalities, if she can keep it to the generalities, then she might do very well. But if it gets really specific in that debate, and if Joe Biden behaves himself, then it's going to be a problem.
BROWN: All right, guys, we're going to take a quick break.
We have got lot more ahead, a lot more to talk about. The panel is going to be back with us in just a moment.
We should mention, both of these candidates have debated before. And in a minute, we will see how both Biden and Palin are using their opponents' past debates to prepare for this one.
And, also, look at who is back on the campaign trail today. How enthusiastic is Bill Clinton when he praises Barack Obama?
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PALIN: I do look forward to Thursday night and debating Senator Joe Biden.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
PALIN: We're going to talk about those new ideas, new energy for America. I'm looking forward to meeting him, too. I have never met him before, but I have been hearing about his Senate speeches since I was in, like, second grade.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Governor Sarah Palin, who said later that her one-liner about Senator Joe Biden was not a comment about his age, but that she was just showing how she brings new energy and a new face to Washington.
Biden and Palin square off tomorrow night in the vice presidential debate. The stakes are high for both. He's got a reputation as a loose cannon. She's certainly had a rough time with the press lately, their stand on critical issues very different. So are their debating styles. And from what we have seen, neither one should be underestimated.
Joe Johns is in Washington. And he's got more on tomorrow's matchup -- Joe.
JOE JOHNS, CNN SENIOR CORRESPONDENT: Campbell, you know, this thing will be the best opportunity for voters to see Governor Palin and Senator Biden unedited and under pressure. And there are lot of people out there saying tonight that Palin has the ability to perform well in a debate, because, frankly, she's done it before.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JOHNS (voice-over): A political newcomer, Sarah Palin, on the biggest stage of her life, up against a political veteran in a high- stakes debate -- actually, this is not new to her. When she was running for governor of Alaska, she was debating former Democratic Governor Tony Knowles, who was well known and far more experienced. It was a test. And Palin triumphed, in part by going on the attack.
PALIN: Are you aware now of the impact of that lack of leadership in your gridlock, what that caused the people of Alaska?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: You have one minute to respond, Mr. Knowles.
(LAUGHTER)
TONY KNOWLES (D), FORMER ALASKA GOVERNOR: I have no idea of what you're driving at.
PALIN: Well, what I was driving at was exactly that, that there was gridlock, and much of that was caused in the last year by that memo asking your Cabinet to find ways to put the legislators in kind of more untenable positions.
JOHNS: In short, this candidate brings an impressive array of skills to a live televised debate.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Ms. Palin, do you want to enter this fray? Fifteen seconds, if you do.
PALIN: Just glad I'm sitting here in between them to make sure it doesn't get out of hand.
JOHNS: We asked former Republican Congresswoman Susan Molinari, who became a TV anchor, about how to view Palin vs. Biden. She says, even with his vast experiment in the Senate and knowledge of politics, Biden has a serious challenge.
SUSAN MOLINARI, FORMER U.S. CONGRESSWOMAN: He has to go after her without going after her. And all I can say is, good luck, Senator Biden. It's a tough call.
JOHNS: Biden has at least two tendencies he has to guard against. He has a reputation as an attack dog, and he's known for talking too much and sometimes too bluntly.
SEN. JOSEPH BIDEN (D-DE), VICE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Dennis, the thing I like best about you is your wife.
(LAUGHTER)
JOHNS: Remember this exchange with NBC's Brian Williams?
BRIAN WILLIAMS, ANCHOR, "NBC NIGHTLY NEWS": An editorial in the Los Angeles Times said, "In addition to his uncontrolled verbosity, Biden is a gaffe machine."
Can you reassure voters in this country that you would have the discipline you would need on the world stage, Senator?
SEN. JOSEPH BIDEN (D-DE), VICE PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: Yes.
(LAUGHTER)
JOHNS: Obama chose Biden as running mate, even though, in the primary debates, Biden sometimes sounded more like John McCain. He all but said Democrats who advocated de-funding the Iraq war were gambling with U.S. troops.
BIDEN: Lives are at stake. And I knew the right political vote, but I tell you what. Some things are worth losing elections over.
Molinari says debating a woman also poses unique traps. Biden will have to choose his words carefully. He can't risk female voters concluding he's overly aggressive or condescending.
MOLINARI: His job is going to be to defend Senator Obama and take down Sarah Palin. How do you take down Sarah Palin and not get women mad?
JOHNS: A CNN/Opinion Research poll shows public expectations on this debate are evenly divided as to who will win. What is safe to say is this. Do not underestimate Sarah Palin.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
JOHNS: There's also that question of which Sarah Palin will show up. Some conservatives of course are wondering whether the handlers with her campaign have damaged her confidence by toning down that spontaneity she had and trying to put her too much on message.
So, the question is whether she can get back some of that lively, confident persona that she demonstrated at the Republican Convention -- Campbell.
BROWN: All right, Joe Johns for us tonight -- Joe, thanks very much. Our panel of political brains is going to join me a little bit later to lay odds on tomorrow night's great debate.
Meanwhile, some interesting new CNN/"TIME"/Opinion Research poll numbers coming out about the battleground states, really interesting, some big changes. Our John King will be on hand to unveil those numbers and tell you why they are shaking up the electoral map.
We're keeping an eye also on the Senate floor, as lawmakers are about to start a historic vote on the Wall Street bailout.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. HILLARY CLINTON (D), NEW YORK: This is a sink or swim moment for our country, and we cannot merely catch our breath. We must swim for the shores. And we must do so together not only as a united Congress, but as a united country.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Senator Hillary Clinton a little earlier tonight explaining why she intends to support the Wall Street bailout. We're just minutes away now from that historic vote. We are learning Senator Obama, Senator McCain both just going down onto the Senate floor right now. Let's get a quick update from congressional correspondent Jessica Yellin -- Jessica.
JESSICA YELLIN, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Campbell. Right now, the members of the Senate are voting on some unrelated bills like funding Amtrak. That's why Obama and McCain both showed up to start with those votes.
The vote on this bailout package could happen as soon as the next 15 minutes. There was a moment on the floor when Barack Obama walked up to John McCain, extended his hand and they did shake hands. Right now, we're expecting a few more votes on unrelated topics and then it is the big vote just a short time from now -- Campbell.
BROWN: All right. Jessica Yellin for us. We will be checking back in with Jessica as we wait for the Senate to vote.
We do have some brand new poll numbers that you have got to see. The ground is shifting in some key battleground states, including Virginia. Plus, gaming out the Biden/Palin debate. The strengths they need to play to, the pitfalls both of them had better avoid.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Breaking news on the bailout. If you're just joining us, senators are about to vote on the $700 billion financial plan. I'm told, near the woman in the red, you can see bottom right-hand corner -- I can't, my eyes aren't that good -- that Obama and Hillary are there speaking. Senators Obama and McCain both in the chamber. We're going to bring you the vote live when that happens. Expected again in just a few minutes from now.
But we're going to move from the politics of the bailout to the race for the White House with 34 days to go until the election. Our brand CNN/"Time"/Opinion Research polls show Barack Obama leading in several key battleground states like Florida, where former President Clinton drew a huge crowd today. He was out on the stump for Obama for the very first time. Listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BILL CLINTON, FORMER PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: He's got a better philosophy. He's got better answers. He's got a better understanding and better advisers on these complex economic matters. He's got a better vice presidential partner.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Not always one to give such a boost of praise for Obama, but he did certainly in Florida. Florida, battleground yet again, and we've got new numbers out tonight as we mentioned.
John King is over at the wall to tell us what these new numbers mean.
And John, walk us through what's happening in Florida and also Nevada. Obama leading in both states now by four points, 51-47 percent. Both states, of course, have gone Republican in the past two presidential elections.
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Campbell. The biggest dynamic is that voters more and more are trusting Barack Obama more than John McCain when it comes to the number one issue we're talking about, and that is the economy. But as we go through some of these states, we look at some key subsets.
In Florida here and in Nevada, a big change among older voters, those over 50. You might say those with the most at stake in this financial crisis because they're closer to retirement.
John McCain was leading in that constituency group. He is now trailing. Barack Obama now leads by five points among voters 50 and over in Florida, and they're tied in Nevada. Where do you find those voters? You find them here along the coast, especially down here on the south. And out here in the western coast, more conservative retirees and older voters here, but Barack Obama making big inroads there, Campbell.
And again, a very similar dynamic out here in the state of Nevada, a battleground out to the west. Vegas is where the growth is, younger voters here. But throughout this state, you have a number of retirees, the key constituency to watch over the next 10 days or so as this economic debate plays out, Barack Obama holds those voters over 50, he is well on his way to the White House.
BROWN: John, talk about Minnesota. Obama up 11 points, 54 to 43 percent there. Also Missouri, a dead heat now, 49 to 48 percent.
KING: Dead heat. Drop those. Let me come down and get it. The American elections are increasingly won in the suburbs. So let's just go to the state of Missouri.
You win the state of Missouri by winning out here in the St. Louis suburbs and over here in the Kansas City suburbs. This is a stunning change, and it's just the same. The other state you mentioned is Minnesota.
They're a big deal right now, 58 to 39. Fifty-eight to 39, almost 20 points Barack Obama is winning right here in the St. Louis suburbs. Why is that key? I'm going to take this line away and show you.
Last time, when George W. Bush carried the state, he won out here. St. Charles County, the big suburb just north. He won 59-41.
Down here just below Jefferson County, a little more distant in the St. Louis suburbs, the suburbs increasingly the battlegrounds in American politics. Barack Obama in all of these new battleground states, Campbell, making big, big inroads in the suburbs.
BROWN: And, John, Virginia, a nine-point lead for Senator Obama, 53 percent to 44 percent. That's another red state that at least in this poll is looking kind of blue.
KING: Another red state, but a big jump among moderates who say they support Barack Obama and where the population growth in this state, Campbell, you're familiar with this right here. In Northern Virginia, this is where the population growth has been. In the Washington suburbs in this area here, Barack Obama winning huge again, almost by 20 points over John McCain in Northern Virginia.
John McCain had a big rally there not that long ago, but he has a huge problem here at the moment. Those closest to Washington, D.C., at the moment, are siding with Barack Obama.
BROWN: And, John, do the big picture. I mean, break it down for us. How do all these numbers change the electoral map?
KING: This is pretty stunning when you look at it. It takes 270 to win the White House. As we speak tonight, CNN is projecting Barack Obama would win 250 electoral votes if the election were held today. John McCain at 189. What does that mean? It means Barack Obama has so many more options, Campbell, the yellow states, the golden states, those are our toss-up states right now.
If Barack Obama is holding this, all he would have to do, pick up here, pick up the state of Wisconsin. Let's turn that blue. Let's say he doesn't have to win the big ones.
We give him New Hampshire here. We give him -- come out here to Nevada. If he could do all of that, New Hampshire should have been blue, he did 269. Just one more state. So pick your state. Colorado, he's doing pretty well. And right now, 278. Barack Obama is president there without winning Missouri, Ohio, Virginia or Florida. So many more options for Barack Obama. Right now, the map favors him substantially.
BROWN: John King -- John, I know you're going to stick around as we talk about what's happening on the Senate floor. Thanks very much.
Coming up next, it is game on for tomorrow's VP debate. The panel and I are going to talk style and substance. And we are, of course, watching Capitol Hill where the Senate is poised to vote on that financial bailout plan. We are told that it is their next piece of business, coming up right after the break.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: You are looking at a picture of the Senate floor, live. We are waiting for that bailout vote. It is set to begin in just a few moments. We'll keep an eye on that for you.
We're going to move on, though, and talk about the vice presidential debate. Both vice presidential candidates have been off the campaign trail this week. Sarah Palin still at debate camp. Senator Joe Biden on Capitol Hill for tonight's bailout vote.
And here again to talk about the vice presidential candidates, what they need to do and not do tomorrow, Gloria Borger, Joe Klein, Ed Rollins, once again.
And, Gloria, a lot of people out there saying don't underestimate Sarah Palin. Alexander Burns writes on Politico.com that in her Alaska debate, Palin was "unusually adept at dodging controversy, quick to take advantage of opponent's missteps, waiting for her rivals to expose their weak points, and then striking fast."
Let's be honest about the fact that given, you know, what's happened over the last week, her performance in these interviews, expectations very low for Palin.
BORGER: Right.
BROWN: And that's probably not a bad thing for her, is it?
BORGER: No, no. It's a very -- it's a very good thing for her, and it's a very difficult thing for Joe Biden. I think it's going to be interesting to see the two of them interact, Campbell. They're not going to be allowed to interact that much, but I don't think, as Susan Molinari said earlier, that Joe Biden is going to attack her. He's not going to do that. He's going to try and give her enough ropes so she can hang herself. I think that's probably going to be his strategy.
And she's going to make herself the fresh face, and perhaps make Joe Biden's years in the Senate be a negative. However, if she does that too much, don't forget John McCain has had lots of years in the Senate, too. So she can't talk down experience too much because she's running with the experience candidate.
BROWN: Ed, we saw in the piece that Joe Johns did a little bit earlier, that when she was -- she did seem to do well in the Alaska debate against two candidates by sort of staying above the fray. Very different when you're mano o mano in this situation, yes? A different sort of challenge.
ROLLINS: Definitely. She's a big personality, though. And I think sometimes you rise to the occasion with an audience. And in the interviews that we've seen in the last couple of weeks that have been so damaging were not in front of an audience.
She's in front of an audience tonight, and my sense is she's a performer. She'll know enough that she can basically answer 99 percent of the questions. And I think that she's against Biden and Biden has the tendency to be condescending. And if he is, she can come out of this with an advantage.
BROWN: A lot of people made that point about Joe Biden. Kit Seelye wrote about it in the "New York Times" today. A danger for Biden on Thursday is his habit of speaking authoritatively, of saying he possesses the truth, and the fear that that will come across as overbearing or condescending."
JOE KLEIN, "TIME" MAGAZINE: Well, you know, if I'm Joe Biden's debate doctor, I'm prescribing boring pills, you know. Just be as boring as you can. Joe, put a little sign in front of your lectern saying "boring." I want to be boring. I'm not going to be clever.
(CROSSTALK)
ROLLINS: He could do that and put out a sign.
KLEIN: Well, he has all these years of practice. But you know, the thing about Palin in this debate as opposed to the Alaska debates, she knew the issues in Alaska. This is new turf. This is another question that she mishandled with Katie Couric.
You know, if she had been -- when Katie asked what do you read? You know, she could have -- if she had just said, look, I'm really focused on my constituents in Alaska, I read the local papers there.
BROWN: Right.
KLEIN: But I haven't been able to keep up with the rest of the stuff as much as I'd like them. I'm trying to catch up now.
BORGER: And --
KLEIN: Go ahead.
BROWN: Go ahead, Gloria.
BORGER: The temptation for Biden is going to show how much he knows, so he can get into all kinds of Washington speak, which means nothing to most people in this country. And she can counter that by actually talking in a language people understand. So he's got to be really careful about that.
KLEIN: Absolutely.
BROWN: I know. How do you -- if you're Joe Biden, given what his tendencies are, how do you resist that urge?
ROLLINS: Well, he will. I mean, I think the key thing is that if she makes it about family and her values and what she's about and talking about her and McCain...
KLEIN: Right.
ROLLINS: ... historically, debates don't move very many people. You reinforce your own side. She's got a lot of people out there, a lot of partisans on our side cheering for her to do well. I think she will do better than expected.
KLEIN: Can I fearlessly predict, counter to all of my colleagues, that this thing is going to be a dud tomorrow night?
BROWN: How could you feel that way?
KLEIN: I think that Palin will meet, you know, bottom-line expectations, and I think that Biden will do anything he can to prevent making news.
BROWN: So that they both end up --
KLEIN: Yes, and listen, you know, most debates are pretty boring, I mean, really.
BROWN: And to Joe's point, too, frankly, the format is very different than the last debate. They don't get a lot of time to interact. They get two minutes each and then I think 30 seconds, right, Gloria?
BORGER: Right.
BROWN: To sort of get into it...
BORGER: Right.
BROWN: ... which doesn't really give them an opportunity to do so.
BORGER: And the moderator probably won't ask the kind of questions that Katie Couric was asking, which are, what kinds of newspapers do you read? What's your -- what Supreme Court decision don't you like? I mean, in this kind of debate, the moderator generally talks about the issues of the day and what the candidate's solution is for those issues.
ROLLINS: What also killed her in those interviews was the unanswered. She just let the space go away. She could have said I read "Time" magazine, I watch CNN, and we'd all been very happy. But at the end of the day, when she's in a debate, you know, you've got two minutes. You've got the light in front of you, you're going to keep talking.
BROWN: All right. Stand by, guys. We have a lot more to talk about. And don't forget, you can watch tomorrow's vice presidential debate, of course, live right here on CNN.
Our breaking news tonight, the Senate vote on the Wall Street bailout moments away now. We're going to take you back to Capitol Hill. We'll get an update. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: The top one percent earn more income than the bottom 50 percent.
BROWN: We're still watching the Senate. The bailout deal, we're going to keep track of that for you. But there is some other news today.
Erica Hill joining us now with "The Briefing" -- Erica.
ERICA HILL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes. And this one really struck a lot of people by surprise, Campbell.
More than a year after adventurer Steve Fossett disappeared, a hiker found cash, an FAA ID card and a pilot's license with Fossett's name. Fossett took a solo flight in Nevada last September. He never returned. Police plan to search the remote area of California, though, where those items were found.
Investigators say a commuter train engineer sent a text message just 22 seconds before his train hit a freight train head on. Last month's deadly collision outside Los Angeles killed 25 people. California train operators are now banned from using cell phones on the job.
And O.J. Simpson's defense lawyers have wrapped up their case. Simpson's on trial in Las Vegas for kidnapping and armed robbery. A Simpson friend told the court two prosecution witnesses tried to extort $50,000 from him. Closing arguments could begin tomorrow, Campbell.
BROWN: All right. Erica Hill for us -- thanks, Erica.
"LARRY KING LIVE" is following the bailout vote on Capitol Hill, and in a few minutes, Larry will also preview tomorrow night's critical vice presidential debate.
Hi, Larry.
(OFF-MIKE) Unfortunately, we can't hear Larry, but he will be here and you will hear him at 9:00. We promise. We'll figure out what the problem was.
Anyway, that's what he is going to have, the very latest on the bailout vote, of course. And he'll also be breaking down the vice presidential debate. But in just a moment, we are going to check back in with our folks down on Capitol Hill to bring you the very latest when we come back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: When the House shot down the $700 billion Wall Street bailout earlier this week, the markets tanked. Well, tonight, it is the Senate's turn. We're moments away from that historic vote.
That's Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid speaking on the floor of the House right now. Both presidential candidates also in Capitol Hill tonight. So is our Jessica Yellin, of course.
Jessica, bring us up to speed. What's the very latest?
YELLIN: One of the more liberal members of the Senate has introduced an amendment to the bailout package. That would be a surcharge on the ultra wealthy to pay for this measure. That's expected to go down quickly on a voice vote, which is just a shout-out loud vote, and move right past that into the major vote tonight on the bailout package itself.
As you said, the candidates are all there on the floor. We saw Joseph Biden with a group of Democrats around him. He seems to be regaling them with stories. We know he loves to talk. And there is a moment when Hillary Clinton seemed to be talking to Barack Obama, telling him a joke or something. They seem to be laughing.
John McCain also there. We continue to monitor and, of course, this vote on the major bailout package expected perhaps within the next 10 minutes, if not sooner -- Campbell.
BROWN: Jessica, you talked to us a little bit about this earlier, but as much attention as we are paying to this, it is a huge deal, obviously, but intended primarily to build momentum for this thing to get through to the House, right?
YELLIN: Yes. The House of Representatives is the big stumbling block here. And at this moment, they still don't know, the leaders of the House, whether they have enough votes to pass it. The Senate has attached a number of measures that they think will appeal to some people, to get them to change their votes in the House, but it's just not certain yet -- Campbell.
BROWN: All right. Jessica Yellin, we will check back in with you as things get started.
Our breaking news coverage continues in a moment. We're going to have more insight on the Senate's bailout. Predictions for what comes next when we come back.
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BROWN: We're seeing the minority leader. That was Mitch McConnell right there. Breaking news, we've been tracking for you all night, the bailout vote minutes away.
We want to bring back our political panel to talk about this. Gloria Borger, Joe Klein, Ed Rollins and John King, joining us now.
John, let me start with you. Senate taking the lead here, resurrecting this proposal, but the House is going to be under enormous pressure come Friday when they're expected to take a vote, right?
KING: Maybe the first time all week someone has used the word lead in the same sentence as the United States Congress.
BROWN: A fair point. A very fair point.
KING: This is a -- this is a tough week. It looks like this package will pass the Senate, and many believe they have added enough in spending, "sweeteners" as they call them in Washington, to get enough House votes. But that vote is now not scheduled until Friday. You have a new unemployment report come out Friday morning. Probably more bad news about the economy.
They're actually counting on bad news to convince enough House Republicans, I have to vote for this now because this is going to hurt on Main Street. Not the way you draw up how to do business in civic class. They think, they think they have the votes now.
But, Campbell, you saw what happened the other day and I am still stunned at the fact that both the Republican and Democratic leadership allowed that vote to happen while the markets were open not knowing they did not have enough votes.
BROWN: And how likely could that scenario be repeated come Monday? I mean, the leadership, like you said, I mean, a million people were shocked by that. How well do they know their people well? Can they trust their own people?
ROLLINS: Well, they can't trust their own people. And equally as important now that they've added Christmas tree ornaments to the Senate bill, there's going to be a real temptation to add them to the House bill. And part of the thing was we have to have purity. We can't add anything.
BROWN: Purity has been long gone.
ROLLINS: Every time you add something, you lose something.
KLEIN: Since when did we ever have purity? I mean...
BORGER: Yes.
KLEIN: ... ever since July 5th, 1776, legislators have been demanding --
ROLLINS: I remember it well, Joe. It was a great time in our country.
(LAUGHTER)
KLEIN: I bet you do. But you know, these kind of sweeteners is how you get people to vote for -- make tough votes. That's the flaw in John McCain's railing against earmarks. If the greater good requires giving someone a bridge, maybe not a huge bridge, a little bridge, then you do it.
BROWN: Gloria?
BORGER: Well, but they added $100 billion on to this bill. And we're not hearing anybody rail about what's been added on to this bill. And by the way, there's no specific ways to pay for this extra $100 billion, either.
So, you know, look, Congress is a lagging indicator. The people didn't like it. The House voted against it. Now the people are worried. They saw the stock market drop 700 points. Maybe they can convince a dozen or so House members to change their mind.
BROWN: Is that -- is that essentially what's turning people is that we heard that members were getting these phone calls overwhelmingly opposed, and then the stock market crashed and people saw what was happened in their 401(k)s, and suddenly the phone calls switched a little bit.
KING: A little bit, a little bit. The phone calls are still mostly against it. Now, what members of Congress will tell you is the people who are for things don't call up and say, Senator, I think you're doing a great job...
BORGER: Right.
KING: ... vote for that.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: This is all --
KING: They get the opposition. But remember, these guys were on the ballot. And on the House side, they don't like each other, they don't get along, they don't trust each other. So, the fact that that vote is delayed a little bit just leaves me a bit skeptical.
BROWN: Right.
KING: That they're not going to, again, see what's going on out there.
KLEIN: This has all the look of an organized phone call campaign by, you know, libertarians, groups like "Club for Growth." I think that this thing is going to pass. And also, the important thing is that it's not $700 billion. In the end, it's going to net out to be a lot less than that.
BROWN: OK, guys, we're out of time here. We wish we could have brought you the vote. It looks like they are operating on Senate time.
So Larry King is going to have all the details coming up right now.
