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Campbell Brown
Candidates Prepare For Final Debate
Aired October 14, 2008 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Hi there, everybody.
Tonight, with exactly three weeks to go until the presidential election, the CNN electoral map is all-important. The very latest poll numbers tonight show the race is incredibly volatile. We are going to show you what states are shifting, and how, and what that means.
As for tomorrow night's final presidential debate, it is John McCain's best chance, perhaps even his last chance, to turn things around.
And, then, a little bit later, hypocrisy alert: another congressman who campaigned on promises of bringing back morality who now finds himself caught up in an alleged sex scandal. So, what can you say? Here we go again.
But we begin, as always tonight, cutting through the bull.
On the eve of the third and final debate, a plea to the presidential candidates: Please don't tell us that, as president, you're going to have to some tough decisions. Yes, you are. We get that. We know that. We're in the middle a financial crisis that analysts keep telling us is unlike anything we have been through as a country since the Great Depression, families at this very moment losing their savings. They're losing their homes. They're losing their jobs.
We understand that, if elected president, you're going to have make some tough decisions. That was Barack Obama's answer at the first debate when he was asked what he would give up, among all his proposals and promises, given the financial mess. His response was about as nonspecific an answer as I have ever heard. And he only gave that answer after he was asked the question by the moderator three times.
At the second debate, his answer was even less helpful. He ignored the question entirely, again talking in vague generalities. Now, I assume Senator Obama has a sense of the magnitude of the economic challenges we're facing right now, but those answers sound like they're come from someone living in la-la land.
John McCain also tried to avoid the question at first, and then fell back on a plan that he had proposed in April, well before the financial crisis. At the first debate, it took three tries by the moderator for Senator McCain to answer, finally, repeating his call for a freeze on all discretionary spending, with a few exceptions. Now, whether you love or hate this idea, that's a separate debate, but compared to what we're getting from Obama, McCain at least has offered something concrete.
From both of these candidates, though, we need real answers. And please don't tell us you're going to cut pork barrel spending and scrub the waste out of every bloated federal agency. I mean, name a political candidate who has not promised to cut the fat and eliminate waste in government.
Please, tomorrow night, no bull. Be straight with us. We can take it. Americans understand the stakes. Just give us brutal honesty, because, so far, we're not really getting it.
Now, tonight, with three weeks to go before the election, some fresh new nationwide polls just out. We have taken the average of six of the very latest national surveys, the result, Barack Obama 50 percent, John McCain 42 percent. That is an eight-point gap and a distinct trend. Obama does seem to be pulling away now.
Of course, we all know this race is going to be decided state by state with electoral votes, and there is important news tonight on that front, too.
Ed Henry is here with our map showing the shifts, and, Ed, as we mentioned, new polling today about what's happening in the battleground states. And it looks like the number of states overall has really shrunk.
ED HENRY, CNN CONGRESSIONAL CORRESPONDENT: That's right, Campbell.
What's fascinating, two things. There are only seven battleground states now. And, also, when you look at what's safe for Barack Obama, he's really on the precipice of victory. He's got 264 electoral votes, the magic number obviously 270, just six short, and John McCain far behind.
Let's talk about those seven battlegrounds. We have them painted yellow, because they're up for grabs. They're tossups. You have got them all across the country. And the problem for John McCain is, all seven of these were red in 2004, because they were carried by George W. Bush over John Kerry.
So, let's take, for example, Colorado. A Democrat has not won there since 1992 with Bill Clinton. North Carolina, a Democrat has not won since 1976 with Jimmy Carter. Virginia, you have got to go back 44 years, Lyndon Johnson in 1964, the last time a Democrat carried that state.
So, when you look at it, these are all states, Campbell, that John McCain should be doing much better in. Instead, all the battlegrounds now are places where he's playing defense.
BROWN: And, Ed, we know 270 to win, that's the magic number here. But, according to the latest number, at least, there are a heck of a lot more ways for Obama to get there than there are for John McCain now.
HENRY: You're absolutely right.
That's the problem. When you take a close look and crunch the numbers, John McCain basically has to run the table. To go from 174 to cross 270, he gets up to 274 if he wins all seven. The likelihood of that is obviously very difficult.
Barack Obama is playing with a much wider field. Basically, if he wins almost any one of these seven battlegrounds, it carries him over. Florida, that puts him over the top to 291. He wins, say, Ohio all of a sudden, he's over to 293. He wins Colorado, he crosses as well. He crosses that threshold.
The bottom line is, if he wins Nevada, that brings him up to 269, so he's one vote short, but then he wins another battleground, he's over 270. So, when you look at the math, it's really good for Barack Obama if he can hold this momentum, really bad, very difficult for John McCain right now. He has got to run the table.
BROWN: He does. Ed Henry for us tonight -- Ed, thanks.
As Ed was mentioning, poll after poll now showing McCain sliding in key states. That makes tomorrow's night presidential debate more important than ever. It's going to be at New York's Hofstra University.
Senior political correspondent Candy Crowley already here in New York with me now. Chief national correspondent John King is in another of our key tossup states, Missouri. And they're going to talk us through all this.
And, Candy, let me start with you.
The campaigns, they're looking at this. They know the new reality now. What are they telling you? How are they adapting and adjusting?
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, it's right out there at this point. You see John McCain trying to get on top of the economy issue. It's just crushed him for the last three weeks.
I mean, he has to find a way to scramble out of all that debris and move forward. Barack Obama, he is still out there. Today -- he's doing debate prep for three days in Ohio, basically, which is a nice place to do debate prep. And there may be a reason for that particular selection.
But, you know, he is still out there, putting out some proposals, as they did yesterday, still talking about McCain, very, very hard pushback. And Biden is also in Ohio at this point. So, they're -- they need to float through it. They need to not take the bait. He needs not to get flustered. He hasn't so far in the first two debates. So, they just want to stay the course. They just want the move -- they want the calendar to go a little quicker. BROWN: And the McCain campaign certainly doesn't.
John, you're in Missouri, as we mentioned before, one of those key tossup states. Talk to us, because I know you have been talking to a lot of voters. What are you hearing from them? What campaign messages seem to be breaking through?
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Campbell, it's a pretty diverse state, so it depends on where you go. But Missouri is a good place to look, because, in 26 of the last 27 presidential elections -- that's all the way back to 1900 -- the winner of Missouri has won the White House. Only one time, Missouri got it wrong in all those years.
In the African-American community here in Saint Louis, amazing enthusiasm. They think turnout will be up. John Kerry carried the city of Saint Louis 80-20 over George W. Bush. If Barack Obama can boost those numbers, and African-Americans say they will turn out, it would make a huge difference.
The biggest problem for McCain right now is out in the suburbs. Suburban women, by a double-digit margin, now supporting Barack Obama, mostly on the economy. They feel the crunch of higher energy costs, higher health care costs. They think the Democratic proposals would help them more.
But you also -- among moderate suburban women, who are critical, we call them soccer moms, security moms, in past campaigns -- you have a lot of them saying, you know what, John McCain may have picked Sarah Palin to get my vote, but I don't like her; I don't think she's ready for the job.
The hope for McCain in this state, Campbell, is run up big numbers in the rural areas, especially in the Bible Belt, in the southern part of this state. But the biggest problem for McCain right now is in the suburbs. They often determine who wins this state, if it's close. He's struggling there right now.
BROWN: And, Candy, to John's point, we have got poll after poll now showing that Obama has the advantage on the economy, which is clearly the issue that's dominating.
I mean, McCain came out and introduced new proposals today, but, beyond that, how do they think they can close this gap on the economy?
CROWLEY: Keep at it, keep at it, keep at it.
And it's not -- there are always two levels of a campaign. They still have some ads out about William Ayers. They still are trying to sow doubts about Barack Obama's leadership, knowing that there is some that they can build on out there.
So, it's a two-track thing, but they do seem, from what we have seen for the past two days, to being very much on the economy, because, honestly, they have tried to veer off of it, and it doesn't work. I also think that you may see a little tomorrow night about national security, where John McCain is very strong. And there are easy ways to tie national security to the domestic economy.
BROWN: To the economy.
CROWLEY: And, so, you may see that kind of joining together, because that's always the issue that he tends to consistently beat Barack Obama on.
BROWN: Speaking of tomorrow night, John, again and again, voters -- we did a -- we had a group of women come in after the last debate. We heard this from them, that they're not getting specifics from the candidates, enough for their satisfaction.
We have got them rolling out their economic plans, both of them, over the last two days. How are people viewing it there? Do they feel like they're getting real answers? Or is this all political rhetoric to them?
KING: In my travels in recent weeks, I find most voters are getting a lot of answers, and that's because they're paying more attention.
At an African-American church the other day, even a voter who is passenger Obama, he told us he gives McCain credit for stopping a woman at a town hall last week when she said Obama was an Arab. He gave McCain credit for stopping her. That's how close he is paying attention.
Others have told us, from the candidates and then going on the Internet, they're looking at the health care proposals, again, a big issue in the suburbs. So, from time to time, you hear people complain the ads. They say the ads are not substantive.
But, in terms of listening to the candidates, watching them on television, and going online to get information, this campaign has been like any other I have ever covered, Campbell.
BROWN: John King for us tonight, Candy Crowley, as well, thanks, guys. See you tomorrow night for the big moment.
Tonight, the presidential campaigns are -- are pitching new plans to fix the economy, as we just mentioned. This is important. It affects your mortgage, your 401(k), your rent, your kids, pretty much everything. Ali Velshi is going to be here and he's going to walk us through the details on both of those plans.
BROWN: Also, a congressman publicly confesses to causing pain in his marriage. Here we go again. Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. TIM MAHONEY (D), FLORIDA: No marriage is perfect, but our private life is our private life. And I'm sorry that these allegations have caused embarrassment and heartache. (END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: We will have the full details of this story for you when we come back.
Plus, Sarah Palin stirs up friendly voters in Joe Biden's old stomping ground. She also has new some complaints about the media. We will explain.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Here's one measure of how serious the financial crisis has become. The federal budget deficit has skyrocketed to a record $454.8 billion, more than double last year's deficit, next year, of course, expected to be far, far worse.
Against that backdrop, John McCain unveiled his economic plan in a speech in Pennsylvania today.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R-AZ), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: If I'm elected president, I will help to create jobs for Americans in the most effective way a president can do this, with tax cuts that are directed specifically to create jobs and to protect your life savings.
(CHEERING AND APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Now, both McCain an Obama have come out with new economic plans this week.
And with our next president facing one of the worst budget deficits in American history, it's cards-on-the-table time. How do the plans stack up?
Nobody explains this stuff like Ali Velshi. He's here to make sense of it all.
And, Ali, walk us through the plan.
ALI VELSHI, CNN SENIOR BUSINESS CORRESPONDENT: OK, let me show you what they have come up with in the last few days. It's kind of interesting.
When you take -- two issues. Let's take these two. Tapping retirement accounts, Obama is talking about suspending tax penalties for people who have to tap into their retirement accounts to make their payments. McCain is talking about reducing tax penalties for seniors. When you pull out of your 401(k), there's a penalty for that. McCain is talking about reducing tax penalties for seniors.
Let's talk about unemployment benefits. They both have the same position on both of them, eliminate taxes on unemployment benefits, which would actually be quite an accomplishment. That would actually help people out who are having the tougher time. Now, those are the similarities.
Let's talk about some of the differences between the two of them. Obama is calling for a 90-day moratorium on home foreclosures. So, if you're anywhere in that process, it just stops for you. That was something that was suggested earlier in the primaries. McCain is talking about suspending taxes for seniors who have to sell stock outside of their 401(k)s, in other words, the taxes that you would pay on those stocks.
He's also talking about reducing capital gains tax. That has been a part of his platform for a while, the idea that, if you have to sell something at a gain, a house, or stocks, or things like that, you wouldn't pay as much tax as you do now.
Obama is talking about a tax credit for companies that create jobs. Small businesses, by the way, are the engine of growth in this company. So, Obama is talking about a $3,000 tax credit if you create a job. Remember, these are tax credits in most cases, so they're thought of economically as incentives to get individuals and businesses to try and kick in to help the economy -- Campbell.
BROWN: OK, so, Ali, bottom-line this for us. How realistic are these plans? All this money has got to come from somewhere, right?
VELSHI: Yes. Obama's plan that he's introduced is going to cost about $60 billion, McCain's around $52 billion. Given that we have been bandying numbers around $700 billion, it doesn't seem like a lot.
What you were talking about earlier at the top of the show is really what it comes down to. They have both promised very wide and sweeping tax cuts to the middle class. Are those tax cuts going to be able to happen? And, if they are going to stay on track, what exactly is going to be cut from their overall plan? That's the thing we have to see, because now we're talking about hundreds of billions, not just $60 billion or $52 billion.
BROWN: We will see what happens.
Ali Velshi for us -- as always, Ali, thanks.
Coming up: the last debate, one final chance to speak directly to America. But there are rumblings from both sides about more nasty personal attacks. We're going to talk to our political panel about that, whether it's smart for either candidate, when we come back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: John McCain has one more big chance to connect with voters in a real way, the last presidential debate just about 24 hours from now. McCain gets it. The economic trumps all these days. Today, he offered up some new proposals and perhaps previewed how he's going to go after tomorrow night -- Obama tomorrow night.
Take a listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) MCCAIN: He's an eloquent speaker, but even he can't turn a record of supporting higher taxes into a credible promise to cut taxes.
What he promises today is the opposite of what he has done his entire career. Perhaps never in history have the American people been asked to risk so much based on so little.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: So, will McCain be able to seize the moment tomorrow night?
Joining me now, Gloria Borger, CNN senior political analyst, "New York Daily News" columnist Errol Louis, also morning host at WWRL Radio in New York, and Republican strategist Kevin Madden, former Mitt Romney national press secretary, who now supports John McCain.
Kevin, you know, McCain has this one last opportunity to speak directly to so many of the American people of course tomorrow at Hofstra University. His past two debate performances haven't helped him. What should he change?
KEVIN MADDEN, FORMER ROMNEY CAMPAIGN NATIONAL PRESS SECRETARY: Well, I think you saw a little bit of a preview right there in that speech.
He's going to go right after Barack Obama on the issue of credibility. You know, ultimately, these debates are about moments. And John McCain needs to find a moment where he can crystallize the differences between him and Barack Obama on these attributes, that he's the credible leader, he's the person with experience, that he's the candidate with judgment, and Barack Obama is not.
And I think that's where he's going to look for -- he's to try and seize every single opportunity to really drive home that credibility message tomorrow night.
BROWN: Is that going to be enough, Gloria?
GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: I'm not sure.
I think what he has got to do is talk about the issues, Campbell. He's got to talk about his economic plan. Yes, he's got to convince voters that he's got the judgment to be president, but he's also got to convince voters to like him, because one thing that we have seen in all of these polls, Campbell, is that they believe that he's been too negative in this campaign. And so, he has to go back to sort of being the guy that they like.
BROWN: And is there enough time there, Errol, for him to turn that around? And, also, address what Obama needs to do.
ERROL LOUIS, "THE NEW YORK DAILY NEWS": Well...
BROWN: Does he just not have to screw up, essentially, given the polling?
LOUIS: Well, I think Obama may need to do a little bit more than that.
I mean, McCain's first job, I think, will be to try and do for an hour-and-a-half what you just saw him do for a few second, which is to be -- to appear confident, to appear positive, and to compare and to attack Barack Obama, not because of who he is or who he was with 20 years ago or anything like that.
BORGER: Well, that will happen. That will happen.
LOUIS: Well, but, you know, if he sticks to the actual issues, if he says, look, I have got a plan, he's got a plan, I have got a better plan, and I'm more likely to pull off my plan, then I think he starts to get into the zone where voters are, as opposed to trying to bring up stuff that a lot of people who don't happen to listen to right-wing talk radio may not know anything or care anything about.
BROWN: Let me get you all to comment on this. The McCain campaign has been blasting Obama's association with former radical Bill Ayers. McCain himself, though, hasn't raised it as an issue in a debate at least.
And Obama talked about this is an interview with ABC's Charlie Gibson. Let's listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, ABC)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D-IL), PRESIDENTIAL NOMINEE: I'm surprised that we have been seeing some pretty over-the-top attacks coming out of the McCain campaign over the last several days, that he wasn't willing to say it to my face.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Now, Errol, let me ask you this. It kind of feels like Obama is baiting him a bit.
LOUIS: Of course. Of course.
BROWN: And it looks like McCain is going to take the bait, at least from what he today, I think, in a radio interview. He said that he probably will address it at the debate.
LOUIS: Just that clip there, I had listened to it. I hadn't watched it. He looked like Brer Rabbit. You know, please don't throw me into that briar patch with all kinds of irrelevant things that voters have told pollsters they do not care about.
If McCain takes that bait, he might as well fold up his tent. It would be a very foolish response to a provocation, I think.
BROWN: Kevin, do you agree with that? Should McCain raise the Ayers issue tomorrow night? MADDEN: Well, look, I think Errol makes a good point. I think the biggest problem with raising the Ayers issue is that it looks like it's a personal attack.
BORGER: Because it is a personal attack.
(CROSSTALK)
MADDEN: No, I think the Ayers, the frame they try to draw with the -- Ayers is that, look, Barack Obama is not somebody who is being truthful on this, and these are associations that ought to be explored.
But the problem when you do it in a debate, I think, is that it does look like a personal attack, and, ultimately, you're standing there with your fingerprints on the weapon. And that doesn't look well, when, ultimately voters are judging these as performances.
BORGER: He also has to seem like somebody -- and he started to talk about it a little bit -- somebody who can work across the aisle, bipartisan history, truth-teller, somebody who can be the check or the balance, whichever it is, on an all-Democratic Congress. That's going to be really important.
MADDEN: And, Gloria, you know what's even more important is that, when folks are sitting there opening up their 401(k) statements, Bill Ayers' name is not on that statement.
BORGER: I don't think so.
MADDEN: And that is what they care about right now.
BORGER: I don't know think so. And Obama has to convince them that George Bush's name is on that statement.
(LAUGHTER)
BROWN: Let me ask you one final question, Gloria. A growing number of Republicans -- Kevin, you know this, too -- including now John McCain's own brother, keep saying that the campaign needs to let McCain be McCain. And I guess this is really the point that you were just making. I mean, what does that really mean, and can that make a difference at this stage of the game?
(CROSSTALK)
BORGER: It's the truth-teller.
It's funny. I was talking to a Republican earlier today, who said, I really used to like John McCain, but I can't quite remember why. And what John McCain has to do is remind people why they did like him and all of the things we have been talking about, the truth- teller. Just don't go out there and say, I'm a maverick. Go out there and tell the truth about what kind of a senator you have been.
BROWN: Extraordinary candor, could that save the day, Errol? (CROSSTALK)
LOUIS: Well, that's right. And as difficult as it may be, from the map that you showed, in those seven remaining states, if he has got -- if he is going to have any chance with the remaining undecided voters in those battleground states...
BROWN: They're independents. We're not talking about rallying the base anymore.
(CROSSTALK)
LOUIS: Right. Exactly. He has got to turn his back on the base, let Sarah Palin, let somebody else take care of that, reason that they really don't have anywhere to go, with two weeks left in this election, and they're going to have to -- he's going to have to try and -- with everything he's got, to go for those independent voters.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: Do you agree, Kevin, rechannel the message and solely target those independents?
MADDEN: I will disagree with Errol on the base part, but I do think that he's right when he says he has to go out after those Democrats that may be prone to swinging over to the McCain campaign, those independents.
We have to find in the next three weeks the New Hampshire John McCain that beat Mitt Romney. He's the guy that a lot of voters identify with on all the big issues, national security, economic security, and where we're going to take this country in the future.
BROWN: All right, stand by.
BORGER: Not a lot of time, though.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: You're right, not a lot of time. More to talk about, guys. Stay with me.
But, first, a reminder -- the final McCain debate, if you haven't figured that out already, is tomorrow night. Our special no bias, no bull coverage starts at 8:00 p.m. Eastern time. I will be here, along with the best political team on television.
Coming up next: Barack Obama wants to let you draw on your 401(k) without penalty, if you need it to get through the financial crisis. John McCain says that would hurt the stock market even more. So, which is it? What's the better idea here? We're going to put both proposals to our no bull test.
And Sarah Palin, on the attack in Joe Biden's old hometown, she's also taking shots at the mainstream media. And we were there. You decide if she's right -- in a moment.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: Tonight, both Barack Obama and John McCain have new economic plans on the table. They'll affect pretty much anybody with a 401(k) retirement account, and that is a lot of people. So we're going to carefully listen to what both candidates are saying about it, and then we're going to put it to our "No Bull" test. First Obama, then McCain.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BARACK OBAMA (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Since so many Americans will be struggling to pay the bills over the next year, I propose that we allow every family to withdraw up to 15 percent from their IRA or 401(k) up to a maximum of $10,000 without fine or penalty through 2009, just to help tie folks over. This will help families get through the tough times, get through this crisis without being forced to make painful choices like selling their homes or not sending their children to college.
SEN. JOHN MCCAIN (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Senator Obama yesterday offered up a proposal that would have the effect of encouraging early withdrawal funds from 401(k) accounts by suspending penalties through 2009. This is an invitation to capital flight, and therefore a continued instability in the market at a moment when exactly the opposite is needed. Any family that takes part in this will not see the benefits of the market recovery that smart policy can help bring about.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: So what about it? Borrowing from your 401(k) to pay the bills? Tom Foreman standing by with our "No Bull" test -- Tom.
TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Campbell, Obama says he wants you to be able to tap into your retirement money without fine or penalty. Well, you can already do that under certain exceptions, like if you become permanently disabled, for example. But what he's talking about is this penalty for early withdrawal that you would normally pay.
It's 10 percent if you're younger than 59 1/2 and if you were to take out $10,000, you would lose about $1,000, a thousand of it exactly. Obama wants you to keep that, but he says nothing here about taxes.
Remember, if you take that money, it is income, and you will pay the same rate on it as you're paying on the rest of your earnings. He also doesn't mention that accountants, retirement planners, investment advisers almost always say unless your circumstances are absolutely dire, do not touch your retirement money. You're fixing one problem now by creating a much worse one later. So, Obama is not mentioning the downside.
But McCain is not exactly summing it all up properly either. He is correct. Accountants tell me that this plan would almost certainly see more people using retirement money early. Some people do it even with the penalty.
But whether that would cut them out of the benefits of an economic recovery or undercut the stock market's attempts to rebound, depends on how many people take part and how much money they pull out. And we just don't know those numbers -- Campbell.
BROWN: So still a lot of confusion there, a lot of unanswered questions. But Tom Foreman for us tonight looking into it. Appreciate it as always, Tom.
Our CNN commitment to taking the pulse in key battleground states, tonight we're going to look at younger voters. We've heard so much about them this year, this newly energized group, record registrations. But the test is how many will actually turn out to vote and how might they affect the election.
Then a little bit later, the personal scandal that has a Florida congressman fighting for his political life.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. TIM MAHONEY (D), FLORIDA: The people of my district know that I'm a fighter, and I'm not going to allow this politically motivated story coming out 20 days before the election change my resolve to serve the people of the 16th congressional district.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: You got to wonder if there is something in the air these guys breathe. We'll explain on the details when we come back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: For the next three weeks, CNN is going to be buckled down in the battlegrounds, taking the pulse of the key states that will decide this election. Tonight, our spotlight is on Colorado. Democrats have won that state just five times since 1920. The last time was 16 years ago. This year, though, Colorado's nine electoral votes are up for grabs.
And our new CNN Colorado poll of polls actually shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by five points, 48 to 43 percent. A lot of that has to do with the surge of young, newly registered voters. The big question, though, will they actually turn out come November?
Dan Simon talked to some young Colorado voters. He is in Denver for us tonight.
Dan, what are you hearing out there?
DAN SIMON, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Campbell, they are energized. You know, we've been here trying to figure out how the state could turn blue. What we discovered is that newly registered voters are making an enormous impact. The Democrats have been a lot more successful in getting voters on to their rolls. And the Republicans, they've been beating the Republicans really by a three to one margin.
Now, there's no breakdown in terms of the ages of these new voters, but local observers say the college generation is an enormous factor. Case in point, we were on the border campus but we came across several students who told us they changed their registration, changed it from their home states to here in Colorado because they knew their vote here would have a greater impact. Take a look.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KATIE ULRICH, STUDENT, UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO: I didn't really know when I came here that it was, you know, such a battleground state, but I think that the student population has a good chance of swinging it to the Democratic vote.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SIMON: In a tight race, those new voters could be decisive. Obama also doing well with Hispanics, and Hispanics make up a fifth of Colorado's population. As one political science professor put it, the task for McCain is clear.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
KEN BICKERS, PROFESSOR, UNIVERSITY OF COLORADO: McCain is going to have to turn out the base in a big way, that is social conservatives and traditional Republicans. He's going to have to work the neighborhoods and get those people out to vote.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
SIMON: McCain also has to do well with independents, and independents here make up a third of Colorado's voters. So if he gets his base, gets the independent vote, he may just keep this state red, Campbell.
BROWN: All right. Dan Simon for us. Dan, thanks.
Coming up, a new scandal in the very same district where Congressman Mark Foley, remember him? He resigned in disgrace. He was the Republican that was caught sending inappropriate e-mails to Capitol Hill pages.
Well, the Democrat who followed Foley promised to restore morality to the district, but that was then. And now, we'll file it under sex, lies and audiotape.
Then later, Sarah Palin --
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV. SARAH PALIN (R), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Our opponent gives speech after speech about the wars that America is fighting, and just once it sure would be nice if he would just once say he wants America to win.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Palin taking aim at Barack Obama right in Joe Biden's hometown today. We'll have the details.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: On the eve of the final McCain/Obama debate, "LARRY KING LIVE" has his own political showdown coming up in a few minutes. Larry, what's the story?
LARRY KING, HOST, "LARRY KING LIVE": Oh, it's going to be interesting. Interesting, interesting, Campbell. Charles Barkley will be here tonight.
Sir Charles is considering a run for governor one of these years, so he's up on the ultimate sport -- politics. He's got a lot to say about what's going on in the presidential race.
He and Ben Stein will mix it up in defense of their candidates. All next on "LARRY KING LIVE" -- Campbell.
BROWN: All right. Larry, we'll see you in a few.
Coming up, an eye-opening scandal for a Florida congressman -- sex, money and phone tapes. But right now, Jason Carroll is here with "The Briefing" -- Jason.
JASON CARROLL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: All right. We're going to start with some developing news coming to us from Florida, where the mother of a missing Florida girl is being charged with first-degree murder.
An Orlando grand jury indicted 22-year-old Casey Anthony today. Her 3-year-old daughter Caylee was last seen in June. Anthony has been in and out of jail twice since then as police try to build a case against her.
Wildfires are forcing thousands of families from their southern California homes tonight. Gusty Santa Ana winds are spreading the fires around Los Angeles and San Diego. Firefighters are making progress. Forecasters say those winds will not be as strong tomorrow.
Former presidents, Clinton and Bush, got a close-up look at Galveston, Texas, today. Hurricane Ike blasted the city last month. Texas leaders asked Clinton and Bush to use their influence to help rebuild the Gulf Coast economy.
And a Tennessee man has secretly named his newborn daughter Sarah McCain Palin. Mark Ciptak and his wife agreed to name the girl Ava Grace, but when Ciptak filled out the birth certificate paperwork, his politics took over. He says he can't afford to donate money, and he wanted to help the McCain/Palin ticket.
Sure, the baby is cute. Let's just hope she looks more like Palin rather than McCain.
BROWN: I was going to say, I hope his wife shares his politics.
CARROLL: Let's hope so.
BROWN: OK. Jason Carroll for us tonight. Jason, thanks.
CARROLL: All right.
BROWN: Two years ago, a scandal toppled a rising Republican congressman. Now, his Democratic replacement has problems of his own. This sound familiar?
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
REP. TIM MAHONEY (D), FLORIDA: I take full responsibility for my actions and the pain that I have caused my wife Terry and my daughter Bailey.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BROWN: Next to the latest congressional sex scandal, complete with a secretly recorded conversation with the alleged other woman.
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BROWN: By now, you might think that the guys in Congress would have figured out when it comes to sex it's best to keep their mouths and their pants zipped, right? Erica Hill has details on a new scandal that has some Florida voters saying not again.
ERICA HILL, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Yes, if only, Campbell. It's actually happening, too, in the same Florida district where a Republican congressman got in trouble two years ago for sending frisky messages to pages. Now, his Democratic replacement is fighting allegations of putting a mistress on the payroll.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
HILL (voice-over): Just what is it about Florida and its 16th congressional district?
REP. TIM MAHONEY (D), FLORIDA: I take full responsibility for my actions and the pain that I have caused my wife Terry and my daughter Bailey.
HILL: That's first term Congressman Tim Mahoney of Florida, the Democrat who won his seat in 2006 when disgraced Republican Mark Foley stepped down amid his own scandal. As for Mahoney, the pain he's referring to may have something to do with an ABC News report claiming he paid $121,000 to a former mistress, who worked on his staff and who, according to ABC, was threatening to sue him for sexual harassment. Mahoney denies any wrongdoing.
MAHONEY: I have not violated my oath of office, nor have I broken any laws, and I consider this to be a private matter.
HILL: But it is now very public after ABC posted a January phone conversation between Mahoney and the alleged other woman, Patricia Allen, a conversation Allen says she recorded.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, FROM ABC NEWS)
MAHONEY: If you do the job that I think that you should do, you get to keep your job. Whenever I don't feel like you're doing your job, then you lose your job.
Hey, guess what? The only person that matters is guess who? Me. You understand that? This is how life really is. This is how it works.
ALLEN: You know, you know that you're upset about something else.
MAHONEY: No, I'm not upset about something else.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HILL: During that same phone conversation posted on ABC's Web site, Mahoney fires Allen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP, FROM ABC NEWS)
MAHONEY: You're fired. Do you hear me? Don't tell me whether it's correct or not.
ALLEN: Tell me why else I'm fired.
MAHONEY: There is no why else.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HILL: ABC says Mahoney and Allen met two years ago when he was campaigning to replace Republican Mark Foley. Foley stepped down after accusations of sending lurid messages to male congressional pages. In response to Foley's bad press, Mahoney promised a world that is safer and said he'd bring morals back to Washington.
Now, Mahoney is the one in trouble and he's also running for reelection. His current Republican opponent, a former Army officer and attorney whose family owns the Pittsburgh Steelers, is taking notice.
TIM ROONEY (R), FLORIDA CONG. CANDIDATE: I think that it's unfortunate that the people of the 16th district have to deal with this situation again, this election cycle. And again, I just want to echo that I would be honored to serve as your congressman.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HILL: Neither Congressman Mahoney nor Patricia Allen responded to CNN's requests for statements today. Both Mahoney and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi want the House Ethics Committee to investigate the allegations. That, of course, could take months.
Mahoney says he will be vindicated. The voters, however, will render their verdict much sooner, Campbell. That, of course, comes exactly three weeks from today.
BROWN: Yes. Not good timing for him politically speaking.
HILL: Not the best probably, no.
BROWN: Erica Hill for us tonight. Erica, thanks.
Coming up, Sarah Palin, talk about "Sarah Barracuda." The Republican running mate blasts the Democratic ticket on Joe Biden's home turf in Pennsylvania. Listen to what she said, decide for yourself, does she have a point? We'll be back.
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BROWN: Today, Sarah Palin brought the battle right to Joe Biden's hometown, Scranton, Pennsylvania. She fired up a crowd of thousands, and our Gary Tuchman who has been following Palin was right there.
Gary just got back from Scranton. He's joining me now with details from all this. And give us a sense -- I mean, she's on Joe Biden's home turf here? What kind of reception does she get?
GARY TUCHMAN, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, Sarah Palin is actually in New York City tonight to raise money, but in Scranton today, Joe Biden's hometown, it was like Sarah Palin's hometown, at least at this rally.
Very enthusiastic gathering there for Sarah Palin. The fact is that we thought we'd see some people with soft spots in their heart for Joe Biden. But instead, what we heard is, "We don't like Joe Biden. He left here when he was 10 years old. He's not one of us anyway."
But what was unusual about this rally is the first one that I've been too where Joe Biden got bigger boos than Barack Obama.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
GOV. SARAH PALIN (R), VICE PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Joe Biden has said that there's no such thing as clean coal, when we talk about clean coal technology that's needed.
(AUDIENCE BOOING)
He said -- he said, as a matter of fact, that even if there were clean coal, that in an Obama administration, it would be fine if, say, China used it, but it wouldn't be used here at home. Now, that's nonsense.
(AUDIENCE BOOING)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
TUCHMAN: By the way, the Obama/Biden campaign says that is not an accurate view of how Joe Biden feels about clean coal. BROWN: All right. Let me ask you, though, about some of the stuff we have seen or heard from these rallies. You've heard some pretty offensive things being said at some of Palin's rallies. In some cases, you heard reporters say these are isolated incidents, that's one person here and there. In other cases, people have said more than that.
I haven't been myself. You have. What's your sense?
TUCHMAN: No. We're used to venom when we go to rallies. Democrats will go to the rallies for Republicans. We're used to that, but there's some extreme --
BROWN: You mean the media? Aimed at the media?
TUCHMAN: Aimed at the media, but there's an extreme amount of venom ever since the complaints about the mainstream media and "gotcha" journalism, and we walk into these rallies, we have people say to us and others that we're communists and that we're not Americans, and that we hate America.
And you know, I'm a person. I stop, I say, I'm an American. And you know, we question Republican stuff. We question Democrat stuff. We question communist stuff. That's our job to be tough and when someone is running for president or vice president, we have to be tough.
BROWN: Gary Tuchman for us. Gary, thanks, appreciate it.
Coming up, one of President Bush's top strategists says that Palin is unqualified, that she puts the country at risk. This is one of President Bush's former top strategists. How much longer is McCain going to have to battle his own party? That story when we come back.
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BROWN: Today, a chief strategist, a former chief strategist of President Bush's, who was part of his 2004 reelection campaign, took a major swipe at John McCain for picking Sarah Palin as his running mate.
Matthew Dowd says that McCain "knows in his gut that he put somebody unqualified on the ballot. He knows that in his gut, and when the race is over, that is something he will have to live with. He put somebody unqualified on that ballot and he put the country at risk. He knows that."
We want to bring back our panel now -- Gloria Borger, Errol Louis and Kevin Madden.
And, Kevin, in all fairness, let me say that Matthew Dowd is a bit of a pariah within the Republican Party because of some comments he made about President Bush relating to Iraq. But apart from that, this isn't an isolated case. They have been numerous conservative Republicans who have come forward with very strong words about the Palin pick. How damaging is it? At what point does it stop? MADDEN: Well, look, I think that the strategic imperative behind the Palin pick was to get swing voters, was that McCain campaign calculated that they had to reach out to these Hillary Clinton Democrats that may have been disaffected with Barack Obama having passed over Hillary Clinton and use them as part of a coalition for John McCain to win.
The problem has been since then that her appeal has basically been limited to the base voters. And a lot of McCain strategists would have told you about five months ago that if they ran a base election in this climate, that they'd lose by about five points. So that's been where the complication has been.
BROWN: Where do things stand now in your view, Gloria? Is she hurting rather more she's helping at this point?
BORGER: Well, she certainly isn't bringing along Hillary Clinton supporters. I mean, anybody who thought that she was going to bring along Hillary Clinton supporters was sort of not looking at Sarah Palin's record and Hillary Clinton's record.
She is bringing along white men, who like her a lot, and she's rallying the base. But is she bringing along those independent voters that John McCain needs to win in this election? Absolutely not.
BROWN: And, Errol, to that point, this Joe six-pack, who she says is that's who she's talking to. And Pat Healy wrote in the "New York Times" today, "Palin has emerged as the most electrifying speechmaker among the four politicians on the major party tickets. She generates enormous fervor at her events. People sometimes do not stop clapping or shouting words or praise until Ms. Palin pauses."
LOUIS: That's right. That's right. Look, she's made a lot of this race about her. She was unknown only five weeks ago.
To give John McCain his due, she did stop a rise in momentum that was going to Obama right after the Denver convention. She also -- you know, the problem is it doesn't do her any good to get Joe six-pack if Joe six-pack's sister and mother, daughter are all going to Obama. And all of them, women seem to be going towards Obama. That's the problem.
BORGER: I'll tell you this, she has a political future in the Republican Party, though.
BROWN: Quickly, Kevin, do you agree with that.
MADDEN: Look, I think that there are a lot of voters out there that Sarah Palin appeals to. Better than anything, those kitchen table issues, she speaks to them.
BROWN: All right. OK, guys, we got to end it there.
To Kevin, Errol and Gloria, thanks. Appreciate it.
We'll see you tomorrow night. "LARRY KING LIVE" starts right now.
