Return to Transcripts main page
Campbell Brown
Election Night Coverage
Aired November 04, 2008 - 19:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: And CNN can now project that in Vermont as expected Barack Obama will carry that state. In New England, three electoral votes. Barack Obama we project will win in Vermont. At the same time John McCain will carry Kentucky. Once again as expected, eight electoral votes. Not a huge surprise on either Vermont or Kentucky.
We are not able to make a projection in the four other states that are closing all of their polls at this hour right now. And some of them are battleground states -- Georgia, Indiana, South Carolina, and Virginia. It doesn't necessarily mean that it's going to be close or not close. The reason why we can't make projections sometimes is because we simply don't have enough information and we're not simply going to rely on the exit poll numbers that have come in.
Exit poll numbers are pretty good but they're not always perfect, so we're going to wait to see the real numbers, the real numbers come in before, before we make a projection in these four states. We're watching Indiana very closely because that's turned out to be a battleground state. And Virginia -- Indiana and Virginia, as you know, they have not gone for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964 when LBJ carried those states.
So those are going to be very, very important in the early understanding of what's going on in this historic day in the United States. Let's check in with Soledad O'Brien and Bill Schneider. They're taking a look at exit poll numbers that are coming in -- Soledad.
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN ANCHOR: Right, Wolf, we'll take you right to the voter analysis board. And you'll remember earlier in the night I said this is going to be the why board. Why someone won. Why someone lost. Why it's close, so this is our first opportunity to dig down that direction.
Let's start with Vermont, which was called for Barack Obama. No surprise said Wolf who delivered for Barack Obama.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: Vermont has turned blue. Let's take a look. I hate states at the bottom of the alphabet, but here is Vermont right here.
O'BRIEN: It's a bit hard to reach.
SCHNEIDER: Yes, it's a little hard to reach, but the higher the group, the higher the category on this chart, the bigger Obama's margin. Clearly he did best among Democrats and liberals but if you look at this chart, Obama carried every one of these constituencies. They're all blue, men, white men, voters with and without a college degree, Catholic voters all went for Obama. The only groups in Vermont that didn't go for Obama are the two red groups at the bottom, conservatives and Republicans.
O'BRIEN: Not exactly a shocker there. Take me to Kentucky which we are calling for Senator McCain.
SCHNEIDER: OK. Kentucky is a red state here on this board. And look at this, many of the red categories best of course Republicans and conservatives but interestingly in Kentucky men unlike Vermont, men voted heavily for McCain, 58 percent over Obama.
And Kentucky is a very rural and white state. Look at white voters in Kentucky. These are Appalachian whites who are always a problem for Obama, 63 percent of whites in Kentucky delivered for John McCain. Only 36 percent for Obama. And rural voters in Kentucky again, 63 percent for McCain, 36 Obama.
O'BRIEN: Even the 18 to 24 year-old-group, which is traditionally --
SCHNEIDER: Yes.
O'BRIEN: -- Obama territory.
SCHNEIDER: Look, they went narrowly -- they split their vote, 50 percent for McCain, 48 percent for Obama. Most states is an Obama category. In Kentucky they split.
O'BRIEN: But as Wolf said going in, no big surprise here. Both of these states were safe states. Kentucky for Senator McCain and Vermont for Senator Obama. So, Wolf, that's the why. That's why we have the winners in those two states.
BLITZER: All right, guys, thanks very much. I want to take a look at these two states right now. Indiana about 120,000 votes have already been counted in Indiana, four percent of the precincts have now reported. Look at how close it is, 50 percent for McCain, 49 percent for Barack Obama. Only a difference of 1,255 votes. So it's close. We don't know which of these precincts have reported yet, what part of the state because some parts of the states are more Democratic than other parts. Some more Republican, but it's close with four percent of the precincts now in.
As far as Kentucky is concerned, 10 percent of the precincts have now reported and Senator McCain we projected he's the winner in Kentucky with 52 percent, 47 percent for Barack Obama. He's almost 8,000 votes ahead. This is with 10 percent of the precincts having now reported, so it's still very, very early but based on the exit polls, based on the real numbers that are actually coming in we projected that Kentucky is going for John McCain.
Vermont, as we noted earlier, we projected that Vermont, Vermont is going for Barack Obama. And we're getting some new numbers right now. Take a look at this. In Virginia we can now project that Mark Warner, the Democratic former governor of the state will win and beat Jim Gilmore (ph), the former Republican governor of Virginia. This is a pickup.
It's the seat that John Warner, the long time Republican senator from Virginia, no relation to Mark Warner, has vacated. But Mark Warner, a very, very popular former governor of Virginia and now Virginia will have a sitting Democratic governor. Tim Kaine who has long supported Barack Obama and two Democratic senators. Mark Warner once he's sworn in and Jim Webb who won back in 2006. So that's for a supposedly reliable Republican or red state.
That's pretty impressive that now both senators, the incoming senator and the current senator, the incumbent senator are both Democrats as well as the sitting governor, Tim Kaine of Virginia. But this is a pickup. It's one more Senate seat that moves the Democrats, Anderson, closer to that 60 filibuster proof majority in the Senate. Right now they have 61 if you include the two Independent senators who have caucused with the Democrats. But this is not a huge surprise.
ANDERSON COOPER, CNN ANCHOR: Yes.
BLITZER: But the Democrats are pretty happy about Mark Warner getting elected in Virginia.
COOPER: Not a big surprise at all though, but this race in Georgia, Saxby Chambliss, also at 7:30 polls close in North Carolina, Elizabeth Dole facing a real challenge, the greatest challenge of her career. Do you think she can hold on tonight?
GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well in the polls that we've seen going through this race all along she is the decided underdog here. It's not a great year to be a Republican incumbent generally and she's had some problems in the state. She's running against a very good competitor there. Also in Georgia, Saxby Chambliss you know five or six weeks ago he was fine. He was floating to re-election. There was no problem.
COOPER: What was the turning point? The economy?
BORGER: I think it was the economy. Obama had all about left the state and then suddenly when you had the economic turnaround he started broadcasting commercials in that state, started putting the heat on in that state. Turnout is going to be very important in that state, 29 percent black electorate.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Huge black turnout and then...
BORGER: Right.
(CROSSTALK)
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: -- the Martin (ph) folks they were blown out by it and Obama came back in, putting more money back in the state not necessarily to win it, but to help Martin (ph) win the Senate seat.
DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes, from the Obama point of view, if they could win Virginia and they could win the Senate seat in North Carolina and win a Senate seat in Georgia. That would make them look more like a national president as opposed to being a blue state president. So there's a lot riding on this for Obama how these things come out.
In North Carolina I happen to be from there, you know Elizabeth Dole and Bob Dole of course have been staples of Republican politics for years. They're part of the brand. She made a terrible mistake right at the end. And this was the ad she ran against Kay Hagen (ph), you know talking about godless money. And Kay Hagen (ph) and -- because she had gone to a fund-raiser held by an atheist. And Kay Hagen (ph) happens to be an elder in the Presbyterian Church, teaches Sunday School and it backfired on Elizabeth Dole and it just may help Barack Obama in North Carolina --
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: But sometimes the candidates themselves matter.
(CROSSTALK)
JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SENIOR ANALYST: You know Elizabeth Dole was ranked according to one of these rankings the 93rd most effective senator. And Kay Hagen (ph) made an ad using that fact and you know Elizabeth Dole has made almost no impact as a senator. She's a very famous person, but in six years in the Senate she had very little to point to. She also had only been in the state of North Carolina for 16 days in the year 2005. That's the definition of going Washington. So you can talk about sort of all of the national trends but she just hadn't really done her job as a senator.
GERGEN: But it could help Obama. Her weaknesses now could help Obama.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Reverse coattails --
GERGEN: Yes.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Yes.
WILLIAM BENNETT, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Again, the body is not cold. I'd like to point out that the results aren't in, but I spent a lot of time in North Carolina. The problem of constituent service is an issue for Elizabeth Dole. And I think David's point is a really good point. The reason I brought up the Howard Dean thing and I didn't many to create chaos here --
(CROSSTALK)
BENNETT: No, it's all good fun, but that is the Democrats are coastal party. Remember those maps. And we'll see maps over the next few days. And we'll see maps of the counties. You remember the red country.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Right.
BENNETT: And then here the university towns...
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Right.
BENNETT: ... or the liberal votes and so on. If he gets Georgia, a North Carolina, Virginia, say he gets two out of three, it changes things very much in terms of people's perception and also gives him -- I know I'm jumping ahead -- were he to become president, leverage with liberals in Congress that want to push the party to the left, which is what we're hoping they'll do.
COOPER: Well that's something we want to talk about for either candidate...
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: ... whichever candidate wins whether it's Barack Obama or John McCain the question of leading and will either candidate have a mandate to lead and a mandate for their policy. We're going to talk about that a lot...
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: ... in the hour ahead.
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: An important thing not just winning this election but actually leading this country for both these men whomever may win tonight. We have a lot more ahead. Hours and hours of coverage. CNN.com is the place to go while we're in commercial break, check out what's happening there. You'll see all of the polling that we're getting. You'll see it also on CNN.com. You can pretend to be John king if you're home and impress your friends and your family. We'll be right back here on CNN.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: We're counting the votes. They're coming into here to the CNN Election Center. We're taking a look at Indiana right now, about seven percent of the precincts have now reported -- this is a key battleground state -- look at how close it is right now. Senator Obama 50 percent, Senator McCain 49 percent. And you can see we're doing the math for you, 3,434 votes, Obama ahead of McCain right now. More than 200,000 votes have been counted in Indiana, seven percent of the precincts are in, 11 electoral votes at stake. In the other key battleground states, the polls have all closed in Virginia right now, about one percent of the precincts are in.
Senator McCain with 55 percent to 44 percent for Senator Obama. He's ahead by about 2,670 votes. You see we're doing the math for you here as well. This is very, very early in Virginia. Both Indiana and Virginia. We're not in any position to make any projections for right now. We're watching the votes as they come in but they're going to be coming in relatively quickly.
These are two, two important battleground states that could set the tone for what could be happening later tonight. I want to show you also some live pictures we're getting in from Grant Park in Chicago. That's where Senator Obama eventually will be showing up. And people are showing up in huge numbers there right now as you can see the crowd getting ready for what they hope -- these are Obama supporters in Chicago -- they hope it will be an exciting and positive night for them.
But you know what? We're going to have to watch these votes actually come in. You saw Jessica Yellin over at Grant Park just a little while ago when we were talking to her. We're going to do something that's never been done on television before. We're going to bring her in from Chicago into THE SITUATION ROOM right now -- into the CNN Election Center -- excuse me -- right now. I want you to watch what we're about to do because you've never seen anything like this on television.
JESSICA YELLIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Hi, Wolf.
BLITZER: All right, a big round of applause. We did it. There she is, Jessica Yellin. I know you're in Chicago, but we've done something, a hologram. We beamed you in. We beamed you in here into the CNN Election Center. I want to talk to you as I would normally be talking to you if you were really face to face with me. I know you're a few -- at least a thousand miles away, but it looks like you're right here. Tell us what's going on in Chicago right now.
YELLIN: Well there are massive crowds gathered outside here as you just saw, 65,000 ticketed people are going to be let in, but as many as a million are expected to be outside surrounding this Grant Park location. And walking on the streets outside, Wolf, you can feel the intensity, the excitement, the anticipation for what they hope will be a truly historic night. He's their hometown boy here in Chicago, Barack Obama is and so there's real passion for him in this town, Wolf.
BLITZER: And where is he and his family? Where are they now? Where are they watching all of this? They might be watching us right now on their own monitors wherever they are.
YELLIN: Barack Obama is at the Hyatt Hotel nearby where he's going to eventually be watching election returns as well. He played basketball earlier in the day, which has become you know an Election Day tradition for him. And we're expecting him to go home at some point, change and then watch his election returns and you know turn up here eventually to make the much anticipated speech -- Wolf.
BLITZER: You know what I like about this hologram and you're a hologram now, Jessica. Instead of having thousands of people behind you screaming and shouting, you know what, we can have a little bit more of an intimate conversation and our viewers can enjoy that as well. How excited are you, Jessica, that this is -- you're the first one that we've beamed into the CNN Election Center?
YELLIN: I know. It's like I follow in the tradition of Princess Leah. It's something else. It's the first time it's been live on television and it's a remarkable setup, if I could tell you about it for a moment. I'm inside a tent in Chicago that's been built -- engineers spent about three weeks doing it.
There are 35 high definition cameras ringing me -- in a ring around me. I'm in the center and they shoot my body at different angles and I'm told that transmits what looks like an entire body image back there to New York. These cameras I'm told talk to the cameras in New York so they move and they know when to move when the cameras in New York move. And it looks a little different from a real person there but it's pretty remarkable.
BLITZER: It's still Jessica Yellin and you look like Jessica Yellin and we know you are Jessica Yellin. Let's get back to the important politics of this night. What are they looking for right now, the Obama campaign? What are they most interested in seeing in this, the early part of this evening?
YELLIN: Well what they're going to be looking for first of all, are those red states that we've been talking about -- Virginia, Indiana, to see what the results look like. You started talking about it. And especially how those late deciders broke.
They have a very clear sense of how many people were already onboard with them going into today. The big unknown is the people who made up their mind yesterday, today, if there's a high number of late deciders breaking for them in these red states, they feel that will be a very, very good night. And so they are feeling nervous. Everyone I'm talking to very, very nervous right now, Wolf.
BLITZER: I think a lot of people are nervous out there. All right, Jessica. You were a terrific hologram. Thanks very much. Jessica Yellin is in Chicago. She's not here in New York with us at the CNN Election Center, but you know what. It looked like she was right here. It's pretty amazing technology.
Let's take a closer look and see what's going on right now. All of the polls in Florida won't close until 8:00 p.m. at the top of the hour, but a lot of the polls have already closed in Florida and so they are giving us their numbers. So far less than one percent of the precincts have reported. Senator McCain slightly ahead.
This is very early, 54 percent to 46 percent, a difference of 6,575. But as I said, this is very, very early in Florida. We'll see how close this contest is. All the polls in Florida out in the western part of the state in the Pensacola, panhandle, they're not going to be closed until the top of the hour, so we can't make any projections there.
In Indiana all the polls have closed in Indiana. About nine percent of the precincts are now reporting. Senator McCain slightly ahead by 2,276 votes, 50 percent to 49 percent. And you can see about 260,000 ballots have already been counted. We're only getting started. More polls are about to close. We're going to continue our coverage from the CNN Election Center right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Six and a half minutes from now the polls will be closing in three more states including the battleground states of North Carolina and Ohio. The third state, West Virginia. Take a look at these live pictures, Anderson. These are folks, they're running into Grant Park right now.
COOPER: They've just opened it up. This is where the Obama campaign has actually set up a giant viewing party. They're going to be watching the election results come in. They've basically just opened up. Literally you see people running to kind of get a good location so they can watch. But Senator Obama is anticipated to speak there at some point this evening.
BLITZER: They have gone through security and now they are going in there to get a location. These are very, very excited folks that are getting in there. They think they're going to be celebrating.
(CROSSTALK)
BLITZER: We don't know if they will, but we'll see.
COOPER: Amazing weather in Chicago tonight. I think I heard Roland say it was like 71 degrees, so --
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: (INAUDIBLE)
COOPER: Seventy-one degrees --
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: So it's going to be a nice night to view.
BLITZER: But he's really here, Roland. He's not --
COOPER: He's not a holograph.
BLITZER: He's not in Chicago.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Is he here or is he in Chicago?
COOPER: We have the actual Roland Martin --
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: He's here.
BLITZER: He's actually here?
COOPER: He's actually here.
BLITZER: OK, the real Roland is here, not a hologram. All right, but maybe one of these days, Roland, we'll bring you in. We'll beam you in to the CNN Election Center.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Safe travel. Absolutely.
BLITZER: Roland Martin getting ready. All right, let me walk over to the --
COOPER: OK. BLITZER: -- to the boards and see what's going on right now. In the key battleground state of Florida, 27 electoral votes. They haven't closed all of the precincts in Florida yet, the western part of the state, but the state is already reporting some numbers. You see about 130,000 or so ballots have already been counted.
Right now with less than one percent of the precincts reporting McCain with 54 percent, Obama with 46 percent, 11,137, that's the difference. This year, as you can see, we're doing the math for you, so you don't have to worry about that. In Virginia where the polls closed at 7:00 p.m. Eastern, the -- two percent of the precincts have now reported. McCain ahead 53 percent to 46 percent.
But this is very, very early. You see that he's ahead by 4,387 votes. In another battleground state in Indiana where the polls close at 7:00 p.m. Eastern, right now we have McCain with 51 percent to Obama's 48 percent. He's up by 8,619, John McCain. That's with 12 percent of the precincts reporting, 11 electoral votes at stake in Indiana.
Let me walk over and bring in Campbell Brown and John King. You know what? I'm excited about what's going on. I don't know what the outcome is going to be, but it's just exciting to be able to report about what's going on, Campbell.
CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Well we're starting to get some bits and pieces that may help you put the puzzle together eventually, Wolf. And let's go to John for that and take us through -- I know you're getting some county by county numbers. Let's start with Virginia, long a red state, a real race. Obama was ahead going into it. And we're watching especially northern Virginia, the area around D.C.
JOHN KING, CNN CORRESPONDENT: We're watching Virginia, but we have very little right now, Campbell. If you look we have two small rural counties reporting out here just south of Richmond. Chesterfield County has a decent amount of the population, 3.7 percent. This is suburban Richmond right on the top part, down here it gets pretty rural.
But again very early on. John McCain winning in that one county, 46 percent is only of that county, so don't anybody jump right ahead. Most of the state of Virginia is still very white. That means the votes have not come in yet. Campbell County (ph), a very small rural county out here in central to south Virginia, McCain running up the numbers as you would expect in that part of Virginia right there, but we have a long way to go.
Down here in Virginia is a critical area. The most critical area of Virginia right up here, the northern Virginia suburbs just outside of Washington, D.C. are growing rapidly and an African-American concentration down in the Richmond area, so Virginia...
BROWN: Demographics changing a lot in that part, especially northern Virginia.
KING: Rapidly changing up here. Influx of suburbanites who lean Democratic, an influx of Latino voters who have been leaning Democratic in most of the polls, too. If you look over here, Campbell, this is getting interesting early. The state of Indiana is starting to fill in more quickly. And I want you to look now at this.
This is the state of Indiana with results coming in. And we emphasize and must stress 12 percent, long way to go in Indiana. A lot of Democrats in years past would say could we just stop it right there. If we lose Indiana by three points that would be a great year in the past. The Obama campaign thinks it is in play here and I want to go back in time to show you why.
Excuse me for stepping across, but I'm going to go back to 2004. This is John Kerry versus George W. Bush. And look, 60 percent to 39 percent, George W. Bush wins the state. Remember the blue, Indianapolis has a Democratic base. Bloomington is a college town, has a Democratic base. And up here you're essentially in the Chicago suburbs closest over here Gary, Indiana, Hammond, Indiana, and you move across here, there's a Democratic base. Remember now those are the blue areas. That's where John Kerry did well four years ago.
BROWN: Right.
KING: Now let's come forward -- fast forward to where we are tonight as we watch the results come in. The Democratic votes have not come in, in Bloomington yet. Indianapolis they're just starting to come in slowly. You see that light green. Nothing at all up here yet. And yet Barack Obama is running a very competitive race in the very early results in Indiana. Why?
He's doing well here. This is the Illinois border, southern Illinois. This is conservative rural country.
BROWN: All right, but that's his home state.
KING: It's his home state, but this is conservative country. If he can run well down here and he can run well over here...
BROWN: We could have a real surprise.
KING: He could -- we could have a real surprise. And let's just look at one other thing before we go here. Ft. Wayne (ph), Indiana, you see McCain is winning right now. Let's come into that county. That's Allen County (ph), 5.5 percent of the state's population. McCain is winning 52 percent to 47 percent.
But one way we judge is Barack Obama competitive statewide in Indiana? Again, excuse me for stepping across. Let's go back in time. Four years ago that was 63-36. So at the moment Obama is running stronger than the Democrat even in the counties he is losing and that is critical.
When you're competing in a state that defaults to the other side, Republican in the case of Indiana, yes, you want to win where the Democrats are as we saw John Kerry do four years ago, but you also want to perform as strong as possible in the places the other guy is going to win. Limit the margins. Run up the numbers in the Democratic communities and Barack Obama has a chance in the very red state of Indiana.
BROWN: And we should say as always, caveat still very early.
KING: Very early.
BROWN: These are very preliminary numbers. We get a lot of information.
KING: Twelve percent.
BROWN: OK.
KING: That leaves a long way to go.
(CROSSTALK)
KING: A lot of counties to go.
BROWN: And yet we can do so much with 12 percent.
KING: Absolutely.
BROWN: All right, Wolf.
BLITZER: All right, guys, thanks very much. Let's update you on what we know so far for sure based on our projections and take a look at this map. The red state, that's Kentucky. We projected that that will go for John McCain, eight electoral votes. That blue state up in the corner in New England, that's Vermont. Three electoral votes will go for Barack Obama.
These other yellow states, these are states that have closed -- Indiana, Virginia, South Carolina and Georgia. But we cannot yet make any projections based on the information we have so far. Doesn't necessarily mean it's going to be close. It just means that we're in no position to make a projection yet. Right now it's almost 7:30 -- right now it is 7:30 right now.
Three more states are closing their polls. North Carolina, Ohio and West Virginia and if it were a blowout or whatever, we'd be able to make a projection right now, but we don't have enough information to make any projections in these states. North Carolina is clearly a battleground state; Ohio, remember, no Republican has ever been elected to the white house without carrying Ohio. That state has now closed its polls. And West Virginia, we're going to watch all of that closely.
Let's update you on what we know so far. All of the polls in Florida will close at the top of the hour but as of now with those precincts about 1 percent reporting, McCain with 34 percent, Obama, 48 percent. It's a 39,713 advantage for Barack Obama right now in Florida.
We're watching this race closely; Virginia with about 3 percent of the precincts reporting, McCain with 56 percent, Obama, 44 percent. It's slightly ahead for McCain right now. In Indiana with 14 percent of the precincts reporting, 52 percent for McCain, 47 percent for Obama. McCain ahead with 16,812. 14 percent of the precincts just changed. 52-47 in Indiana.
I think we're going to have to check those Florida numbers. Something is not looking right if you add up those percentages in Florida. We'll get back and check those numbers in a minute.
I want to walk over to Anderson. Those Florida numbers don't look like because it doesn't add up close to 100 percent. We'll fix the math and update our viewers as soon as we can.
COOPER: It's also important to point out to our viewers that where the votes are coming from at this point is very important in terms of we just saw John King looking at the state of Indiana. Some of the areas around Indianapolis and Chicago markets we haven't heard from. Again, just important to keep in mind it's very early hours. You're already getting e-mails from folks saying are we in for a big surprise tonight?
GERGEN: It's interesting. Some of the Obama folks are sending e-mails saying I'm scared. Look at what's happening here. It looks like we're in real trouble. It's important to remember back four years ago for the first hour and a half we were on air talking about President Kerry. Just a lot of signs it looked like Kerry especially exit polls. I would have to say that these are really preliminary. Nobody should draw too many conclusions. Let's get more into the night. It's too way early to say President McCain looking at these numbers.
COOPER: I mean I saw you looking at John King's map of Indiana closely, what were you looking for?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That's a reliable measure. If you look at four years ago what the counties did and now today, that gives you a much more reliable basis.
COOPER: In Indiana, Obama is doing better in some counties.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: No question about it.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: I think Obama also benefits from the fact that he's a next door neighbor.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes. Those counties on the border.
UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: They share a big media market so they know Barack Obama.
ROLAND MARTIN, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: Also when John showed that southern sector a lot of folks thought that Obama would not well down state. Reality is that he did. And so he did extremely well there even when he went to Iowa, folks said it's closer to the border. It's a southern border. He won't do well. Chicago is the focus. He went to those states. He spent lots of time there and they got to know him and I think you're seeing the benefit of that being on the border with Indiana.
TOOBIN: If you go back to May 6th, the Indiana primary where Obama almost beat Hillary Clinton, the key county was Lake County up in the northwest corner of the state. It came in very late. I remember it was a whole chaotic situation. That was the county that almost put Obama over the top.
COOPER: We need the mayor in a hologram.
I want to talk to some of our analysts back here. I saw James Carville working your phone. I'm not sure who you're talking to. What should viewers right now at this point be looking for?
JAMES CARVILLE, DEMOCRATIC STRATEGIST: First of all, the national numbers are going to determine a lot. I mean I think the big overview here is there's a recession going on. That is going to have everything to do with this race. If Obama national number comports with the public average which is around seven and a half then he's going to carry slot of these states. If the national number shrinks to four or three, a lot of states they think they'll carry they won't do it. I suspect that Indiana looking at the map agreeing with what some of our colleagues said over there, a lot of these areas that are not in -- I was just on the phone with people in Virginia and the Democratic areas of Virginia not in. I suspect a lot of Republican areas either. If you have a big win, you know you'll carry a lot of the states. If it narrows, you won't carry and Obama won't carry some of the states. I suspect the national number to be big.
ALEX CASTELLANOS, REPUBLICAN CONSULTANT: I think the thing I'm looking for tonight is one is the gentlemen over at the table were right. If these exit polls are as wrong this year as they were for Kerry, then John McCain is going to carry some states and surprise some people. We may have a closer race than some of the polls have said. I'll look for the silent majority versus the silent minority.
Richard Nixon's silent majority, a group of white working class voters that carried elections for Republicans. Reagan found them, working class Democrats. They'll vote this year. They're voting for John McCain. This is a very different country. It's more diverse. The silent majority may now be smaller relatively speaking maybe the silent minority. It may go Republican but it may not be enough to elect a Republican president.
TARA WALL, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: And I think Republicans are more hesitant to speak out in these exit polls and give their opinions. They are very silent voters. Many of the polls do tend to lean more Democrat.
I think also when you look at some of the trends, the Obama campaign looked at the younger voters. If we see Kentucky for example an overwhelming majority it looks like early on in some of these numbers about 80 percent of young voters whereas John McCain got some of these in Vermont and Kentucky for McCain it was older voters.
So I think Obama is relying on some of the younger voters. He even talked about absentee ballots and the absentee voters. Some of those voters it looks like turning out seem to be shifting in McCain's direction. I think they're looking at some of the key voting pockets and those are the folks that we need to look at when we talk about the exit polls.
COOPER: I should point out to our viewers. We are looking at real votes in the states that have closed. Why does anyone buy these exit polls? Why do we even pay for them if no one seems to think they're reliable?
PAUL BEGALA, CNN CONTRIBUTOR: I didn't go to the briefing. I didn't show up. They can be useful if they match reality then we know how did Catholics vote, how did Hispanics vote, how did Asian Pacific Islanders vote. That's useful. For tonight, I'm looking at real votes. I'm hearing from people for example one thing that's very interesting, traditionally for all time absentee and early voters have been 60 percent generally Republican. This time maybe as high as 60 percent Democratic. Is that a bigger turnout for the Democratic Party? You keep hearing that. We don't know until real votes come in. Do the Democrats shift their votes?
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: People vote any way vote early?
CASTELLANOS: Does that negate the Obama advantage? Is he filling a glass that's already full? If everyone votes, Republicans may have had a good turnout operation, too. We just didn't know it.
COOPER: It's interesting watching on this board here the pictures from Grant Park in Chicago where thousands of people clearly have already gathered. You see a lot more people coming in getting in through security. We are watching them as they are watching us right now.
We got a lot more ahead. Let's go back to Wolf right now -- Wolf?
BLITZER: All right guys. Thanks very much.
I want to update our viewers on what we know right now. These are not exit poll numbers. These are real numbers, real ballots that have already been counted and have been released by these respective states.
In North Carolina right now, less than one percent of the precincts have reported. Right now Senator McCain with 48 percent, Senator Obama with 51 percent. Only a 439-vote advantage for Senator Obama but remember it's very, very early in this race --15 electoral votes in North Carolina.
Florida we fixed the technical problems we had. These are latest numbers coming in from the state of Florida. Two percent of the precincts reporting. Obama had 57 percent to McCain's 43 percent. That's 151,000 advantage for Barack Obama. You can see we're doing the math for you to make it relatively easy. Those are 27 electoral votes in Florida at stake. All of the polls in Florida will be closed at the top of the hour 8:00 p.m. eastern. In Indiana right now, almost 20 percent of the precincts have closed. That's a significant number. McCain ahead slightly 51 percent to 48 percent for Barack Obama. 17,440 -- just changed. 17, 406 votes difference an advantage for Senator McCain in Indiana.
And popular vote right now with about 1 percent of the precincts reporting nationally in all 50 states and District of Columbia the numbers coming in so far right now Obama with 51 percent, McCain with 48 percent. It's a 64,201 advantage for Senator Obama. 2 million votes have already been counted nationally. It's very, very early in the process.
If you want to get all of these numbers in realtime right now, go to CNN.com. A lot of information there. You can plug in the contests of greatest interest to you and you can be updated constantly throughout this night. We'll take a quick break. We'll continue our coverage from the CNN Election Center right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Election night in America, we're here at the CNN Election Center. We want to welcome back our viewers in the United States and around the world.
Let's update you on what we know. These are real numbers coming into the CNN Election Center. Florida key battleground state. All of the polls aren't even closed in Florida yet. They'll close at the top of the hour in the western part of the state. Right now four percent of the precincts have already reported in. Senator Obama ahead 55 percent to 45 percent. He's ahead by 143,000 votes so far.
North Carolina under one percent of the precincts reporting, Senator Obama slightly ahead. It's very, early in North Carolina, 50 percent to 49 percent; 15 electoral votes at stake there.
In Indiana, significant number of precincts already have reported, 21 percent and Senator McCain slightly ahead, 51 percent to 48 percent. He's ahead by 16,239 votes; 11 electoral votes in Indiana. In Georgia, Senator McCain as 70 percent to Senator Obama's 29 percent. We're watching Georgia closely. It has 15 electoral votes.
I want to go to Suzanne Malveaux. She's in Chicago at Grant Park. She's standing by. Let's go to Suzanne. Suzanne, you have a crowd over there. These are pretty excited folks. Set the scene for us. What's going on?
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Absolutely, Wolf. They are actually listening to our broadcast here (AUDIO GAP).
BLITZER: Suzanne, it was a brilliant live shot but we couldn't hear a word that you were saying. That crowd around you is so powerful. Maybe we could get a hand held mike for Suzanne Malveaux because I really want to hear what's going on but unfortunately that crowd is so enthusiastic. You really can't blame them. They sense that history may be made tonight. Suzanne, stand by. We'll get you a better microphone to hear what you're saying in Grant Park in Chicago.
You see the folks there have gathered and they're pretty excited. You can't compete with that level of noise no matter how loud a voice you have. Suzanne stand by for that. Anderson, I got a powerful voice. I don't think I could compete with that.
COOPER: We've all done live shots where you have ten people behind you doing that but they have a crowd of thousands of people behind them who are watching her on TV and so everybody is doing it. It makes the hologram that much more effective.
BLITZER: She was brilliant. I loved what she was saying.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Great suit.
COOPER: It shows the benefit of the hologram when you don't have those crowds. We'll try to beam Suzanne in a bit.
In terms of what the crowds are going to be watching for tonight, what should viewers be anticipating? I mean it's now ten to 8:00. What should we anticipate in the next half hour to hour. When will we get real numbers?
BORGER: I think we'll get Virginia. Virginia's been good about reporting pretty early, Anderson. Of course Ohio is another big state. This is a true tossup. We talked about Indiana being a tossup. Ohio a tossup.
COOPER: Correct me if I'm wrong, the McCain have been saying they have to win in Pennsylvania.
GERGEN: It's a must win for them. There are so many ways Obama gets to 270 if Obama wins Pennsylvania. We do know there was some closing but it was a five-point race coming into the final days. It would be an upset for McCain to win Pennsylvania but if he doesn't win Pennsylvania, it's very, very hard.
COOPER: Bill Bennett, do you believe these polls? When you hear seven points in Pennsylvania. You don't buy it?
BENNETT: I don't believe it. We'll see. You're asking when we'll know? I don't know. My felling is soon and it will flow fast. We'll know a lot soon. We'll know three or four or five states. I don't buy them and I asked the same question you ask about the exit polls. Why bother? They're tricky because everyone wants to jump to a conclusion.
COOPER: I mean you look at the exit polls in New Hampshire during the primaries and first before New Hampshire Barack Obama was supposed to walk away with it. You look at the exit polls, Barack Obama was in the lead. Hillary Clinton won.
MARTIN: Actually in New Hampshire, if you look at the polls in New Hampshire Obama eventually got what polls show. When John Edwards got, the polls showed that. The polls do not take into account an explosive number of voters and it does not account for people deciding on the day of.
BORGER: Polling in New Hampshire four days before the primary and before Hillary Clinton --
TOOBIN: One thing that's consistent throughout the primaries is Obama did better in exit polls than he did with voters. I think that's an important --
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What does that tell you?
TOOBIN: I don't know what it tells me.
GERGEN: It tells you that the Bradley effect seemed to have died earlier. There was a Bradley effect that said black candidate would do worse in actual voting than in the last polls and in the primaries this year actually Barack Obama came out about 3.3 percent higher on average across all states.
TOOBIN: He did worse in exit polls.
GERGEN: The exit polls are strange. I think Bill Bennett is right. How do we figure out if exit polls are off three or four points as they were with John Kerry? What are they looking at?
BORGER: Some pollsters say that Barack Obama supporters are more willing to stop and talk to someone after they voted.
COOPER: Most importantly though what we are looking at now is real numbers. We have real numbers from 7:00 and 7:30 and in about seven minutes from now we'll have real numbers from Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, Florida, Pennsylvania, the polls closing in those states. Our coverage continues. We have a lot more ahead, a very exciting night ahead. Check out CNN.com and get the latest news and get numbers as we get them. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back to the CNN Election Center. We're getting close to the top of the hour. Anderson - what -- 15 states and the District of Columbia, they'll be closing their polls in a few moments.
COOPER: And a fascinating state to watch of course, Pennsylvania, the state which the McCain campaign said they have to win.
BLITZER: And it's a Democratic state but they've made an enormous effort in Pennsylvania to see what they can do.
Let's walk over and see the states that are closing in six minutes, and a few seconds. Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Florida, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Tennessee; these states closing in about six minutes. We'll see what we can project at the top of the hour.
Pennsylvania, I don't think we can stress that too much, Campbell and John. It's going to be fascinating to see what happens there. Almost everyone says if John McCain can't carry Pennsylvania, he'll have a tough challenge ahead of him.
BROWN: One to keep a very close eye on but Wolf, we want to mention we are getting some interesting numbers, if you look a little bit deeper at some of the states from earlier, Indiana and Florida, John has been looking at and again, we should say always the caveat here is that this information is so early yet, but some interesting trends especially if you compare it to 2004. Look at Indiana.
KING: Early but it's telling. We're filling in more, up to 26 percent in the state of Indiana. We were at 12 the last time we talked. The results are starting to come in and some of it is pretty telling.
Number one: Indianapolis you expect Barack Obama to do well here. There is a small but significant African-American community in the city of Indianapolis, 56 percent to 43 percent. I want to go back in time, four years ago just to double check that against how John Kerry did in Indianapolis, 51 percent to 49 percent. So right now Barack Obama is running ahead of where John Kerry ran in Indianapolis. That's one way a Democrat can be competitive.
Let's come back to 2008 and look at some of these other counties. Again, this is a huge Democratic area up here. We have absolutely nothing so far in Garry and Hammond and Lake County right up along the Chicago suburbs. That's one place. This is a conservative Democratic area down here. That's the place you want to watch.
But Campbell, you look at the margins within the conservative counties. I'll hit one randomly and say here in, I'm not going to try that one, Kosciusko County, 66 percent for John McCain and 33 percent for Barack Obama. That's a big McCain lead in that county. Let's go back in time and just see how did the Democrat run that time, 21 percent so Barack Obama is running ahead of where Kerry ran into the rural areas. Norville County you come back over, 69 percent for Bush, 39 percent for Kerry.
Fast forward '08: Barack Obama is running ahead of where John Kerry ran in the rural areas. So Barack Obama is not going to win most of the counties out in rural Indiana but right now looking at the earlier results he's running well ahead of John Kerry which is critical. Keep the Republican margins down out in the rural areas and then run up the numbers in Indianapolis which at the moment he is doing.
Another key area, college camp success huge for Barack Obama, South Bend, Indiana, we know it is there, the University of Notre Dame. Catholic county, St. Joseph County, Barack Obama running ahead of John McCain there significantly. Eighty-two percent of the vote is in here so this is almost done here - 59 percent for Barack Obama in this county.
One more check back in time, and you see George W. Bush carried this county four years ago by a narrow margin but Barack Obama again outperforming John Kerry and in some of these counties outperforming George W. Bush. Still a long way to go as we watch that. At the moment for the Obama campaign, even though McCain is leading in the state if you are the Obama campaign you are very encouraged.
BROWN: A lot to keep in mind here in Garry as you said which is generally Democratic. We've got a projection. We'll go back to Wolf and come back and do Florida in a minute -- Wolf?
BLITZER: All right, Campbell. Here we go. CNN now projects that South Carolina and it's eight electoral votes will go to Senator McCain even though he's down with 1 percent of the precincts reporting, based on the information that we have, the exit polls as well as other information coming in to the CNN Election Center. John McCain as expected will carry South Carolina, and its eight electoral votes, that as I said was fully expected.
We're getting ready, by the way, the top of the hour, several states are going to be closing, 15 states and the District of Columbia. Here is what we have right now, if we add up the red states, Kentucky and South Carolina, that adds up to 16 electoral votes so far for John McCain. Vermont up in New England, has three electoral votes, we projected it will be going for Barack Obama. Those yellow states are still up in the air. We don't have enough information to make a projection in those states right now.
There you see the states that will be closing in two minutes and four seconds. We will have projections at the top of the hour, in two minutes, in these states. Fifteen states, and the District of Columbia at 8:00 p.m. eastern, will be closing, and we'll be watching very closely to see what's going on.
Anderson, you know, as we wait another minute or so, before the polls close in these 15 states and D.C., I think all of us are going to be looking forward to seeing what we can do, what we can say about Pennsylvania.
COOPER: Yes as we said before many times the McCain said they have to win the state of Pennsylvania. Jeff Toobin, if you can, try to explain to our viewers we just saw South Carolina calling for John McCain even though on our board with 1 percent of the votes in, McCain is down to Barack Obama. How is it that we can project a winner in South Carolina?
TOOBIN: Well our exit polls cover the whole state and we know the history of the whole state and when there is such a substantial margin in the exit polls that we are confident that, when all the votes come in, one candidate will be ahead, then we feel comfortable making a call, but the key point is, we never make a projection in a state that is remotely close first all we have is exit polls. We wait until the vote --
COOPER: We're not surprised John McCain would win in South Carolina.
TOOBIN: It's not a competitive campaign. We will never make a projection in a state based on exit polls if it's at all likely to be close. COOPER: A minute until the polls close.
GERGEN: You're looking to see the actual vote in two or three places, seem to confirm what you're getting in your exit poll, if they're close together and it's a landslide you can call it. If it's fairly close, as Jeff said, even if you get some numbers, you want to wait and with an abundance of caution. CBS called, for example, South Carolina, just a minute ago and CNN waited and was patient, and there's always this question in every news organization how to do this.
COOPER: We've got polls closing in a matter of seconds in a number of states. Let's go back to Wolf.
BLITZER: Anderson, 15 states and the District of Columbia, getting ready to close their polls. One hundred seventy-one electoral votes at stake.
