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Campbell Brown
Election Night '08 Coverage Continues
Aired November 04, 2008 - 21:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: As we watch what's going on, we want to remind our viewers that this is a night that not only the White House will be determined, but the balance of power in the United States Congress -- the House and the Senate. Let's pause.
And with the polls closed in these states right now, we can make these projections. Barack Obama will carry these five states -- Rhode Island, Barack Obama wins, will take the four electoral votes, not a surprise.
Michigan -- McCain basically gave up there a few weeks ago. Michigan, 17 electoral votes for Obama. The same for Wisconsin and its 10 electoral votes. Wisconsin will go for Obama.
So will Minnesota and its 10 electoral votes for Obama.
And New York State, 31 electoral votes -- not a surprise, but that's a bonanza of electoral votes going for Barack Obama.
John McCain will carry Wyoming and its three electoral votes -- that was expected -- and North Dakota and its three electoral votes. That will go for John McCain, as well.
We don't -- we are in no position right now to make projections in these battleground states, including John McCain's home state of Arizona. We don't have enough information for Arizona and Colorado, Kansas and Louisiana, as well as no projections for Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota and even Texas, although that doesn't indicate that just because we're not able to make a projection that it's going to be close. It only indicates that we don't have enough information right now.
But based on the projections that CNN has already put forward over the course of the past couple hours, right now Barack Obama has a steady lead of 174 electoral votes. Those are the blue states that you see. Forty-nine electoral votes for John McCain. Those are the red states that you see.
The yellow states are where the polls have closed in those states, but we have not yet been able to make a projection.
The other gray states out there are states that haven't seen their polls close yet.
Let's go to voter analysis. Soledad O'Brien and Bill Schneider can explain better, based on exit poll numbers, what's going on -- Soledad. SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, we were really interested in drilling down on some of those issues we talked a lot about, certainly over the last 18-plus months. That would be race and age.
So let's take a quick look at the demographic of did race play a role in this race, if you will.
WILLIAM SCHNEIDER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Very important. Let's take a look at those voters who said, "The race of the candidates was an important factor in the way I voted." Now, that was about 20 percent of the voters. And how did they vote in the country as a whole?
They voted 55-44 for Barack Obama, which suggests that race is an important factor to them, but when it was important, they were more likely to vote for Obama than for McCain. A lot of people voted for Obama because of his race -- blacks and whites -- as well as those who voted against him.
O'BRIEN: Now, in the exit poll, you asked exactly the flip of that question -- race was not a factor.
SCHNEIDER: Right. Let's compare that with those who say the race of the candidates was not an important factor. They voted almost the same way. Whether you thought race was important or race was not important, Obama won the vote, which is -- which suggests that race was not a decisive factor in the outcome of this election.
O'BRIEN: What about age as a factor?
SCHNEIDER: Age -- now there is a very interesting contrast. Let's look at those voters who said, "the age of the candidates was an important factor in my vote." In the country as a whole -- whoops. Whoops, it's not working.
O'BRIEN: A little higher.
SCHNEIDER: But --
O'BRIEN: Why don't you try that again?
SCHNEIDER: Among those who said the age was important, look at that -- 78 percent for Barack Obama; only 21 percent for John McCain. McCain did win among those who said age was not important. Twice as many voters said age was important than said race was important.
O'BRIEN: Absolutely fascinating, considering how much we've talked about race in this race -- Wolf.
BLITZER: Soledad, Bill -- thanks very much. We're watching all of this.
Let me just update our viewers once again on the projections that we've made. You see this map of the United States. One hundred and seventy-four electoral votes, we've projected, going for Barack Obama; 49 going for Senator McCain.
Remember, keep in mind, the magic number you need to be elected president of the United States is 270 -- 270 electoral votes.
All right, we're ready to make another projection -- two more projections right now -- two more pick ups for the Democrats.
In New Mexico, Tom Udall, the Democrat, will be elected the next senator from New Mexico.
And in New Hampshire, in a fiercely fought battle, Jeanne Shaheen, the former Democratic governor of New Hampshire, she manages to beat John Sununu, the incumbent Republican. That's a pick up -- two more pick ups. By my count so far, we've projected four more pick ups for the Democrats. They had a 61 majority, considering the two Independents in the Senate, Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman vote, by and large, with the Democrats.
These four more pick ups that we've projected so far, that would bring that 61 up to 65. And that's getting very -- excuse me, 51 up to 55, getting very close to that 60 -- 60 filibuster-proof majority that the Democrats would certainly love to have
But Jeanne Shaheen, we've projected, will be the next United States Senator from New Hampshire.
And Tom Udall will be the next United States Senator from New Mexico. His cousin, Mark Udall, is running in Colorado. We'll see how he's doing.
But -- that's a pick up for the Democrats in both New Mexico and in New Hampshire. Anderson, so far things are going pretty well for these Democrats.
COOPER: It certainly is. The big question is still, I guess Louisiana is perhaps the Republicans' best chance for a pick up.
BENNETT: Maryland, yes.
COOPER: Senator Mary Landrieu has really been targeted by John Kennedy.
BENNETT: Right. Yes, there's a chance. But it's a very big state. It's a big night for the Democrats.
I would comment on what Bill said. There's been so much ink spilled, to the credit of many speeches given -- no speeches and ink spilled by Barack Obama on this. Some Bradley Effect, huh?
The country has grown up. Let's just accept that. And if Barack Obama is the president of the United States, we can't put our history behind us, but I think we can put some questions behind us, like what's possible in America.
COOPER: Well, I mean if he does become president -- and it still is an if -- UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.
COOPER: -- does anyone know what this means in terms of change of racial relations in the United States or a perception of it?
BENNETT: Well, I'll tell you one thing it means, as a former secretary of education. You don't take any excuses anymore from anybody who says the deck is stacked, I can't do anything, there's so much in built this and that.
There are always problems in a big society. But we have just -- if this turns out to be the case, President Obama, we have just achieved an incredible milestone, for which the world needs to have more respect for the United States than it sometimes does.
TOOBIN: Well, the world --
BORGER: (INAUDIBLE).
TOOBIN: -- I think, is a very significant observation.
BENNETT: Yes, sir.
TOOBIN: The effect of an Obama victory, if it happens, on the international reputation of the United States will be so profound and so immediate, that I don't think there is anything comparable in American history in terms of an immediate change in public perception.
BENNETT: Winning World War II maybe.
BORGER: Well, I --
TOOBIN: That was not so instant.
COOPER: But compared --
BENNETT: You mean not so instant.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Not so instant.
BORGER: I think it changes the way we look at our own country. And we look at --
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Sure.
BORGER: -- and you look at this country, which has an amazing ability to self-correct after it makes mistakes.
BENNETT: Absolutely.
BORGER: Selma four decades ago. We could be looking at an -- the first African-American president. We don't know yet, but we could.
GERGEN: I think it's an -- if it's an Obama victory and it's as big as it looks it might be, that's going to be a huge milestone. I don't think we have taken care of the issue of racial prejudice. What's been apparent in this election, though -- I think what Bill Bennett is absolutely right about is it appears that a lot of people worked through their racial issues and came to a conclusion, I'll take him anyway. And that is a -- that's real progress. That's real progress.
But we ought to -- we ought -- we need a little more information now about how the white vote breaks out before we, you know, break out the champagne on this question.
COOPER: Well, we also need to actually declare somebody a victor in this --
BORGER: Right.
(LAUGHTER)
COOPER: -- and have not at this point.
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: There's still a lot more to talk about, though.
This race -- I mean, Alex as a Republican, are you holding onto hope for Louisiana, a possible pick up in the Senate race?
Is that --
CASTELLANOS: Well, James...
COOPER: Is that what's keeping you from drinking right now?
CASTELLANOS: James is so confident he's just spotted me four additional points in Louisiana. So --
(LAUGHTER)
CASTELLANOS: And I'll take them. It's his home state.
No, I think that could be a pick up there. The composition of that state has changed. You know, it's a question of how big the black vote will be down there.
But it is a right-tracked state. It's got government money in there from Katrina. It's got oil money. And they've run a pretty good campaign.
The other state to watch, I think, is going to be Minnesota and Coleman. Their tracking had Coleman up four points going into this election.
COOPER: Norm Coleman against Al Franken, the Democrat. But there's also an Independent candidate.
(CROSSTALK)
CASTELLANOS: Right. And, look, if Republicans can't beat a lunatic like Al Franken, you know, we're in bad shape even this year.
(LAUGHTER)
CASTELLANOS: I think that's what a lot of Republicans would say.
WALL: That's true.
CASTELLANOS: I'm one of them.
But anyway, the question is there, there's a third party there -- a guy taking equally from Republicans and from Democrats.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Right.
CASTELLANOS: So it may be that that election turns out exactly what it is on the last survey.
COOPER: Jim, do you think the Independent candidate in Minnesota takes equally away from both candidates?
JAMES CARVILLE, CNN CONTRIBUTOR, CLINTON SUPPORTER: I think most people think up to a point that he takes away from Coleman. But if he exceeds that point, I don't know if it's 15 points or so, then he starts to take away some from Franken.
I do think Paul and I have been going back and forth on the Florida thing. It appears to us, looking at actual results, talking to actual political professionals, that it's highly likely that Senator Obama is going to carry Florida, based on looking at results. If you look in Orange County, Pasco County and you look at what's happening in a lot of other places.
And I think that -- well, Louisiana, there's some good things that happened, but it's not exactly a right-tracked state.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: What about Virginia?
CARVILLE: Virginia --
CASTELLANOS: What about Virginia?
CARVILLE: -- I'm looking at the actual votes. I can't --
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: We should point out, we have not called Florida in any way.
CARVILLE: I know you -- CNN has not called Florida. Paul says -- this is a -- this is a renegade operation just (INAUDIBLE) --
(LAUGHTER)
COOPER: You guys have gone rogue.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: We've gone rogue. COOPER: You guys are mavericks, I'm telling you.
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: You're both mavericks. You're a pair of mavericks.
(LAUGHTER)
CASTELLANOS: But Obama is looking a little stronger than some Republicans suspected in Florida.
BENNETT: Yes.
CASTELLANOS: And McCain is looking a little stronger than some Democrats had hoped in Virginia.
WALL: In Virginia.
CARVILLE: I wouldn't go that far.
WALL: That's right.
CARVILLE: There's just a lot out in Virginia. There's a lot of -- Virginia Beach, there's a lot out. Fairfax County, a lot out.
WALL: Prince William County is another big one to look at in Virginia. And I think that -- I think that Republicans are kind of looking for these small victories right now in some of these states -- Ohio, Virginia.
COOPER: But Tara Wall, I mean, do you, at this point, see a path forward for John McCain?
WALL: It's very difficult, obviously, at this point. But, again, looking at these small victories, even the governorships, like Mitch Daniels in Indiana, where it was -- you know, it was one of the races that was in question for a governorship.
But I think that, again, Republicans will look at these small victories, hopefully, in states like Ohio, Virginia, Missouri -- St. Louis County. So I think as the night goes on, we'll see. But it is -- obviously, it's not looking very good for the McCain campaign.
BEGALA: Coming back to Florida, Bill Clinton carries it in 1996. Al Gore, I still believe, narrowly carries it in 2000. And there's a big mess in the recount. John Kerry lost it by a significant margin -- you know, too close to -- or by too much to even consider it, you know, stolen or anything silly.
But now, if this thing -- the early returns from places like Orange -- County, where John King, you know, drew those two red lines across the I-4 Corridor, that's remarkable. This is -- this is now his -- McCain's -- last chance in the Eastern coast right?
(CROSSTALK)
BEGALA: He's -- if he loses Florida, it would be, as my son Billy says, peace out, Cub Scout.
CASTELLANOS: But Florida --.
BEGALA: That's it for McCain if he loses Florida.
CASTELLANOS: Florida, more than most states, an elderly population.
WALL: That's right.
CASTELLANOS: Really hurt by economic meltdown. You know, these folks are living no margin for error lives. You know, every dollar in their budget is committed. And when an economic meltdown, something like that happens, they're rocked.
So it's not just -- you know, you can blame the McCain campaign. But when you have an economic meltdown in Florida...
COOPER: But do you think it was just the economic meltdown or do you think the Clintons helped, Joe Biden helped? What do you think --
CARVILLE: Well, I think both. I think, you know, basically what helped was is that the Republican brand has held in as low esteem as any political party in the history of modern polling. And I think -- I mean that's the very obvious thing that's going on in this country.
By the way, in terms of -- young voters are going to break for Senator Obama by probably 65-35.
WALL: Well, I think that's probably --
COOPER: We've got --
WALL: -- that's probably been the key, is the younger voters
COOPER: We've got another projection. Let's just pause for that.
BLITZER: CNN now projects that the State of Georgia will go for John McCain. Fifteen electoral votes in Georgia.
John McCain the winner, with 36 percent of the actual vote now in. John McCain at 61 percent to 38 percent for Senator Obama. He's ahead by 241,000 to 138,000 right now. We're doing the math for you. Thirty-eight percent now of the precincts have reported.
But Georgia, which was a sort of a long shot for the Democrats -- they had some hopes in Georgia. They thought maybe a huge African- American turnout could get them the state. But it was always a major, major challenge for Senator Obama in Georgia. They did make an effort there.
But in the end, we now project that Georgia will be going for Senator John McCain. It's another win for him.
Take a look -- let me walk through and show you what we have in these votes that are coming in. These are actual votes. With 3 percent of the vote now counted in Missouri, 56 six percent for McCain, 43 percent for Obama. But it's very early.
In Texas, only three percent also have been counted -- 52 percent for McCain, 48 percent for Obama.
In Ohio -- that's a key battleground state -- eight percent of the vote in Ohio is now in. No Republican has ever won the White House without Ohio. Obama is ahead right now, 57 percent to 42 percent. He's up by almost 200,000 votes in Ohio, but only eight percent have been counted so far.
And in Florida, almost half of the precincts have now reported in Florida -- 52 percent for Obama, 48 percent for McCain -- almost a 200,000 margin for Barack Obama in Florida. That's a huge prize -- 27 electoral votes. A lot of people do not see not see -- do not see how John McCain can be elected without Florida. But we're watching it and we're watching the votes coming in. Almost half of the precincts there have been counted.
CNN.com -- go there. There's a lot of information you can get on your most important races -- on the presidential race, the Senate, the House, the governors races. CNN.com -- that's where you can go.
Our coverage continues right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: Jeanne Shaheen, we project --
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SENATOR-ELECT JEANNE SHAHEEN (D), NEW HAMPSHIRE: I want to thank -- and all of New Hampshire should thank John Sununu for his 12 years of service in Washington.
I also --
(APPLAUSE)
SHAHEEN: Thank you, yes.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: Jeanne Shaheen, the former Democratic governor of New Hampshire, congratulating herself, in effect, for winning this New Hampshire Democratic -- the Senate seat in New Hampshire. That's a pick up for the Democrats. She defeated, according to our projection, the incumbent Republican, John Sununu. She thanked him for his service. And now she will go forward and eventually be sworn in as the next United States Senator from New Hampshire.
And that's the fourth Democratic pick up. It brings their numbers now up to 55 -- 55 Democrats and two Independents who vote with the Democrats in the U.S. Senate. We're watching all of these races very closely. And here is another one -- a major win for the Republicans this time. In the State of Kentucky, the incumbent Republican, Mitch McConnell, the minority leader in the U.S. Senate -- we project he will defeat Bruce Lunsford and get reelected in the United States Senate. Right now, with 65 percent of the precincts reporting, he's slightly ahead, 51 percent to 49 percent. That's 23,517 advantage for Mitch McConnell. But based on the exit polls, based on other information that's coming in, where this vote -- the actual vote is coming in, we are now ready to project that Mitch McConnell has won and has been reelected in Kentucky.
He was in a fierce, fierce battle for his political life. Bruce Lunsford put on a very strong challenge.
But in the end, Mitch McConnell will go forward and carry his own state -- that's the same state, Kentucky, by the way, Anderson that John McCain, we projected, will go with -- will carry Kentucky, as well.
So that's an important win for the Republicans. It would have been very embarrassing for them if their leader in the Senate would have gone down, just as it was very embarrassing for the Democrats when Tom Daschle...
COOPER: Yes.
BLITZER: -- who was then the Democratic leader in the Senate, when he was defeated in his bid for re-election.
COOPER: It would have been a tough loss for them, but it is not a loss. It's in the win column for the Republicans...
BENNETT: Right.
COOPER: -- something to, I guess, hold onto tonight.
BENNETT: Yes. Well, I think it was Jeff who was saying he's a tough guy. He is a tough guy.
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Right.
BENNETT: But when the going gets tough, you know, it's going to be even tougher for him. That was an essential win. We had to win that one.
But he is -- think about it, as the Senate minority leader, what he could be facing here, with an all Democrat -- the possibility of an all Democrat government.
COOPER: Although, we may not know -- I mean, depending on what happens in some of these races in Georgia, we may not know if there's a runoff until December 2nd.
BORGER: Right.
BENNETT: That's right. GERGEN: We may not. I think that one thing that's starting to -- the question that's starting to come up is, Obama looks like he's heading toward it. He's doing very, very well. Does he have coattails? Is he bringing in people with him?
So far, the indication on the Senate is that he's not -- you know, he's not winning a couple of these close races. Certainly, they haven't won in Georgia. And they didn't win in Kentucky. And -- but we don't know any House races yet.
So I think, you know, over the next two or three hours, one of the questions that we're going to be asking is how much is coming with him (INAUDIBLE)?
BORGER: Yes, and --
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: And the coattails is important, what, for -- to be able to, in terms of governing, in terms of influence?
GERGEN: It's extremely -- going back to your question earlier tonight.
COOPER: Right.
GERGEN: What does it mean for leadership?
It's extremely important. Reagan was the last president who brought a lot of people with him. And it made a big difference in his first two years, as Bill will remember, at how successful he was legislatively.
BORGER: Right.
(CROSSTALK)
COOPER: Well, it was interesting -- and I think it was you who made the point a couple of nights ago that when you heard John McCain making speeches, he wasn't -- he often wasn't thanking the local politicians, the local representative, who was also running, whereas Barack Obama always was trying to embrace them.
And you wonder if -- I think you raised the question is, did they not want to be close to John McCain?
GERGEN: That's an interesting question. It did seem to be that the Senate candidates, for the Republicans, were running largely independently of John McCain and George W. Bush.
COOPER: So had McCain won, would he have had coattails?
And if he does win, will --
(CROSSTALK)
GERGEN: There's no evidence of that going on.
(CROSSTALK)
TOOBIN: In Oregon --
(CROSSTALK)
TOOBIN: You have in Oregon Gordon Smith, the incumbent Republican, running ads with Obama in the ads --
GERGEN: Yes. (INAUDIBLE).
TOOBIN: Even though Obama has supported his opponent, Merkel. I mean the -- it is just the opposite of embracing John McCain.
BORGER: It's ver --
TOOBIN: I mean these politicians read the polls, too. They knew which way things were heading. And they have acted accordingly.
BORGER: You know, Bill Clinton suffered because he didn't have any coattails, because he won with 43 percent of the vote. And everybody else in Congress ran ahead of him. And so they didn't owe him anything.
If Obama were to win and he were to bring in a lot of people, particularly folks in the South, conservative Democrats, they would owe him -- conservative blue dog Democrats would owe him. And they -- you know, he might be able to cut a path there for some reconciliation between right and left and get something done.
GERGEN: Which there's still --
(CROSSTALK)
GERGEN: I think the bottom line is there's still a lot we don't know yet about the outcome of this and what it looks like. And one of the questions is, is it going to -- are there going to be coattails?
Another question is going to be can Obama win a couple of these Southern states himself?
We still haven't heard in North Carolina and Virginia. We have -- those are still outstanding. He still has a real chance to win those things. And that would be huge.
COOPER: We have another projection to make. Let's pause for that.
BLITZER: CNN now projects that West Virginia will go for Senator McCain. Five electoral votes in West Virginia. Twenty-two percent of the vote has actually been counted in West Virginia -- 53 three percent so far for McCain, 46 percent for Barack Obama -- 11,240, that's the advantage he has.
But based on our exit polls, based on the actual numbers that are coming in, where they're coming in from that state, it's another win for Senator McCain. The five electoral votes from West Virginia going for Senator McCain.
Senator McCain, however, is not doing well in several other states and a big loss for him earlier tonight. We projected Pennsylvania going for Senator Obama. That's a major setback.
I want to go out to Senator McCain's headquarters right now, at least on this night.
Hank Williams is performing at The Biltmore Hotel in Phoenix. Eventually, Senator McCain is going to be there.
Let's listen in briefly to Hank Williams.
(VIDEO CLIP)
BLITZER: All right, there's Hank Williams.
We're getting close -- very, very close to a major projection. So stand by.
We'll take a quick break.
CNN.com -- you want to go check all the numbers there, a lot of other information.
Stand by for a commercial break. And then -- I think we might have a big projection coming up.
We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BLITZER: Welcome back. We're watching all these states. They're getting -- they're very close in several of these states.
COOPER: Yes.
BLITZER: Anderson, we're going to show our viewers what's going on. But we're moving along and we're getting ready for some more projections.
COOPER: Important races in Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Virginia -- all we are following very, very closely right now.
BLITZER: Let me walk over and update our viewers on what we know right now.
These are real votes. Seventy percent of the precincts in Virginia -- that's a lot -- they've already reported their numbers. And look at how close it is -- wow! -- 50 percent for McCain, 49 percent for Senator Obama. That's only a difference of about 15,800. Now it's smaller -- 12,519 for McCain. Seventy-one percent of the precincts in Virginia have reported. Almost half of the precincts in North Carolina have reported. Look at how close it is here, in North Carolina -- 51 percent for Senator Obama, 48 percent for Senator McCain. And that's about an 80,000 advantage for Senator Obama.
North Carolina closed at 7:30. We're watching that.
Florida -- another incredibly close state right now. Fifty-five percent of the precincts have reported -- 51 percent for Barack Obama, 48 percent for John McCain. That's not much of a difference -- only 170,588 votes in Florida. That's a big prize -- 27 electoral votes.
And in Ohio, 15 percent of the precincts have reported -- 56 percent so far for Senator Obama, 43 percent for Senator McCain. That's a lead of almost 200,000 for Senator Obama in Ohio. Campbell and John -- Ohio -- I don't think we can stress how important it is, and we're watching this state very closely.
BROWN: No Republican has ever won the presidency without Ohio, wolf. And I know as Wolf said, only 15 percent reporting right now, but still give us a sense for what's happening there, John.
KING: This is a good mix. This is a true battleground state and you see it in the numbers. Obama's leading right now, but you see the numbers filling around for here. Here's the biggest thing: if you're the Obama campaign, we're only at 15 percent and you're saying, wow, this is a tough one for Republicans. One of the things that makes you encouraged at the moment is nothing so far from Cuyahoga County, which is Cleveland. Not only is it an African-American population, a Democratic stronghold, but it's a little more than 12 percent of the state's population.
One of the key things to watch is Republicans will be encouraged down here. This is a key area down here, because the last time a Democrat won Ohio, it was in 1996. Excuse my reach for coming across. It was Bill Clinton and he proved the Democrats could win down in southeast Ohio. So McCain has to be encouraged by that at the moment. In the population centers, Campbell, when you come in, Franklin County, in the center of the state, the capital of Columbus, Barack Obama putting up 60 to 40 right there.
Again, let's go back in time. All night long, we've been talking about the margins then and now. Let's just go back in time and look four years ago, much closer, within ten points there. So John McCain under-performing George W. Bush in that county, as we continue to watch Ohio. I want to shrink down the state and a couple other places to watch.
Obviously, we're waiting for the vote up here. This is a blue collar vote area in here. And if you go back to the Democratic primaries, this is an area where Hillary Clinton swept Ohio.
BROWN: Right.
KING: So Barack Obama at the moment, in the few counties we see so far, seems to be doing well in those blue collar areas where Hillary Clinton hurt him so badly, and where the McCain people hoped to pick up those blue collar voters. So, a long way to go in Ohio. Let's go back out from Franklin County to the statewide. Only 15 percent, a long way to go. This is a place where there have been some hemming and hawing over long lines and ballot access and the likes. We'll let the ballot numbers come in.
But so far, for the Democrat to be ahead in the early count, something we haven't seen in a while.
BROWN: Let's go to Pennsylvania, as we wait on these numbers to come in. But economy, huge issue in Ohio, very similar in Pennsylvania. We have called Pennsylvania for Obama now, but we talked about it to death beforehand. Walk us through what happened.
KING: Another very key point. If you look so far, 26 percent of the state in, Barack Obama with a sizable lead, two to one, 66 percent to 33 percent. What's missing from this map is any red at the moment. Some of this out in the center, when the results come in -- I'm just going to hit one center county, only four percent. I think you can bet by the end of the night -- this is blue because the state is blue. By the end of the night, a lot of this will fill in red.
Here's the key thing: remember after the primaries, everybody said can Barack Obama win down here?
BROWN: Right.
KING: Why do I raise the question? Let's go back and look at the Democratic primaries, Scranton, Allentown, Bethlehem, Redding, blue collar, the old steel industry right in here. Hillary Clinton trounced Barack Obama here. This is where McCain said we'll find Democrats, Hillary Clinton voters, and we're going to get them to vote for us. If you come forward to where we are now, and you look at the race now -- results still coming in, only 26 percent. But you go into these counties, 55 to 44, that's fine for Barack Obama. In Allentown, 60 to 40. He is proving, in the end, he could deliver the blue collar votes he lost in the primary.
One more quick footnote. I talked at length to Senator Bob Casey, a big Obama supporter in Pennsylvania, last night. He said, if he was worried about anything, it was over here, Allegheny County and Southwest Pennsylvania, 61 to 38. Those worries obviously overstated, 54 percent of the vote coming in here. If these numbers -- that's why we called the stakes, Campbell.
I want to show something really quick. Some of this will fill in red. This is probably not fair to the McCain campaign, but look at all this blue now. George Bush narrowly lost this state four years ago.
BROWN: Right.
KING: That was all red. Barack Obama is over-performing John Kerry almost everywhere we look, and John McCain is under-performing George Bush almost everywhere we look.
BROWN: All right. Very big projection, we are just hearing now, let's go right back to Wolf. Wolf?
BLITZER: Ohio, CNN now projects the state of Ohio will go for Senator Barack Obama. Look at this, 20 electoral votes. Barack Obama desperately was anxious for Ohio. And as we say -- we've said it many, many times, no Republican has ever been elected to the White House without Ohio. And now this Democratic presidential candidate will carry the state of Ohio.
That's a huge, huge win, like Pennsylvania, but even more important, because Pennsylvania has gone Democratic in recent contests, including four years ago, and eight years ago, despite Republican wins. Ohio much more important for Barack Obama right now. With 16 percent of the actual vote now in, Obama 55 percent, McCain 43 percent -- 55-44, it's just changed. Almost 200,000 advantage with 16 percent of the win in. But it's a huge, huge win.
Suzanne Malveaux is over in Chicago at Grant Park. They must be -- they're just going to be getting word, Suzanne, about Ohio, but you know how many times you and Senator Obama visited Ohio, and it's clearly paid off.
SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN CORRESPONDENT: It was a critical battleground state for Barack Obama. You can imagine people very excited about learning this news. There has been no Republican who captured the White House without getting Ohio and that is why there were so many trips that we took, time and time, again with Obama going to those areas, trying to win over those critical working class voters, as you said and noted before. Hillary Clinton very much doing well in the state. Barack Obama clearly making some in-roads there.
We want to give a sense of what we're looking at here. Thousands of people who have gathered here in Grant Park, waiting for Barack Obama. He and Michelle, as well as the family, have been watching the results come in. They are very excited. They are very encouraged by this. You have media from around the world that are paying attention to this moment. Thousands of people here who are anticipating an Obama win. Clearly, the race is not yet over, but there is a lot of anticipation, a lot of excitement, that it is going clearly in his way.
We expect Barack Obama to be here later in the evening. He will deliver a very significant speech, as you can imagine, Wolf, at a podium in front of 25 American flags, with unprecedented security, and thousands and thousands of people here, Wolf, waiting for his arrival. And they anticipate his victory -- Wolf?
BLITZER: Suzanne, thanks very much. Candy Crowley also has been covering the Obama campaign. She's also in Chicago right now. This win in Ohio, candy, how big of a deal, give us some perspective. And you understand this as well as anyone, how big of a deal is this for Senator Obama?
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN CHIEF POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: It's a big deal for Senator Obama. But remember, this is a campaign that saw several routes to victory. They saw several ways to add up to that 270 electoral votes. So while this is a big win for him, it is probably a bigger loss for John McCain at this point. Certainly Ohio makes that 270 a lot easier for Barack Obama. But it makes it much, much harder for John McCain, Wolf.
BLITZER: Let's go to John McCain's headquarters out in Phoenix, Arizona, right now. Dana Bash is there. Dana, this is obviously very disappointing news for Senator McCain. Pennsylvania first, now Ohio. And like Candy and Suzanne, you traveled to those states a lot.
DANA BASH, CNN CORRESPONDENT: A lot. And you know, it is absolutely crushing for John McCain, this news. I got to tell you, in following John McCain throughout Ohio, the last week in particular, we spent two full days there, riding a bus through pretty much all of the state. At every single stop, Wolf, he would tell people, I know my history. And the history is that no Republican has ever won the White House without winning this state. He knows what this means historically. And given the way the other states have gone, that this is very, very tough for him.
And so there's no question that realism has -- we talked about realism before, now reality really is setting in inside the McCain campaign. McCain is actually on his way here, Wolf. But I can tell you, I spoke to a source who was with him in his residence here in Phoenix earlier. As you can imagine, in talking to the source, the mood was not very good. They were still holding out hope at that point that Ohio was potentially going to go their way. They were still looking at other states that have not been projected like North Carolina, but the mood was not very good, even though he does have his good friends around, like Senator Lindsey Graham, Senator Joe Lieberman to try to keep him upbeat.
BLITZER: Dana, do the folks at the room at the Biltmore Hotel in Phoenix, where you are, do they know about these projections that we're making?
BASH: They don't. This has been a fascinating dynamic here at the Biltmore. You can see that the music is playing behind me. Hank Williams Jr. has been playing. They've turned off the news. They are not getting this information. Earlier in the evening, when we were projecting, and other networks were projecting the very red states that were going for John McCain, they did put it up, and there were lots of cheers. But since this news has broken about Ohio, Pennsylvania before that, it has not been announced here at all.
There's a very solemn feeling here. Nobody is -- it's really in the dark. Everybody knows what's going on. They all have their Blackberries. They all have their information. But they're making a point of not putting that information, the bad news up on the screen up here.
BLITZER: We saw you going up the screen go up behind you, as you were saying what you were saying. You're up there on the screen, Dana. Thanks very much for that. We're going to get back to you. I want to go over to Campbell and John right now. It's a steep climb that John McCain has right now, Campbell. If you look at the math, not looking very promising for him. BROWN: I know, Wolf. I know we're not calling the race yet, but let's have a reality check here, John. Show me McCain's path to victory without Ohio.
KING: OK? It's very hard. I don't mean to be mean, but this is very bleak at this moment in time. Abraham Lincoln did it. There was one Republican, but not in modern times has a Republican won the White House without Ohio. I'm going to leave these states alone for the moment, although I will say this: we haven't called it yet, I don't believe, but let's give John McCain West Virginia. I think that's a safe bet. I'll leave these for now, and I'm going to leave Florida for now, because we haven't gone there.
Let's come down, Mississippi, OK, we could say -- Louisiana, we can give him that. Look at how small we're talking about here. Arkansas, six electoral votes. We're getting in these states. We're going to give him a lot of states as we go across. But they're relatively small states. Kansas will go Republican. Nebraska, we believe, will go Republican. South Dakota we believe will go Republican.
I'm going to skip Montana right now, because that one is a horse race. The governor out there thinks can he win it for Barack Obama. We'll give Idaho to the Republicans. I'm not going on the West Coast, because Washington State, Oregon and California are not going to go Republican. I'm willing to bet my life on that one.
We'll come down here. Utah will go Republican. We will assume that John McCain will hold his home state of Arizona, and we assume they will win Sarah Palin's of Alaska, which we have down there. And, of course, they will win the state of Texas, and that's the big one left on the board for the Republicans at 34.
Now I have John McCain up to 160. He's still trailing Barack Obama after I gave him all of that. To get to victory, Campbell, he has to be just about perfect the rest of the way through. He has to win Colorado, where he has trailed in the polls. We already know the Democrats took the Senate race there. This is a hypothetical. I will give it to him. I would not bet a lot on that at camp McCain.
Latinos will make up more than 35 percent of the voting population here. In other states, we know they're voting more than two to one against John McCain. I'm going to give to him in this scenario. I would not bet more than a dime on that. Now we come out here and Iowa is a state --
BROWN: He's been running way behind in the polls.
KING: Way behind. This is close right now. We're watching this one very closely. He has to win it, just has to win it. Let's do Indiana, has to win it. Again, that's very tight right now. I looked at it a little while ago and I think Obama has coming back and it looked pretty good for Obama. So here we go. If we do all that, which is a big hypothetical, now we have them tied, before we have Obama -- what does he do to win? Say he wins Virginia. Let's say. We don't know that. Let's say he pulls out North Carolina. Let's say he pulls out the state of Florida.
I got him to 250 by giving him all that. For the sake of argument, we'll give him Montana. Again, Latino vote here, a tough one for the Republicans. But for the sake of argument, let's give him that. I can get him to 259. I'll tell you right now, Campbell, I cannot see John McCain winning Iowa, winning Hawaii or winning any of these. I can't get him to 270, even if there's a miracle here, and that goes Republican. We get him to 266.
Now, we're going to watch these results come in. And please, god bless you, if you are out here, vote, vote, vote.
BROWN: It's not over yet.
KING: It is absolutely not over, and this has been a strange year and strange things can happen. But I just gave John McCain a bunch of states where he's trailing right now, a bunch of states that are good Republican states. It is very hard for me, with any credibility, to suggest John McCain is going to win California, Oregon or Washington. So even if he sweeps what's left on the board, that's as far as he gets and that's not enough.
BROWN: And I think that was pretty well-reflected in what we saw with Dana at the McCain headquarters event tonight, and with Suzanne Malveaux and Candy out in Chicago. Wolf?
BLITZER: Guys, thanks very much. I want to show our viewers what we have projected so far on this map of the United States: 194 electoral votes so far we have projected for Senator Obama; 69 electoral votes we've projected so far for Senator McCain. Senator McCain the red states, you see them there. Senator Obama the blue states, you see them there. The yellow states, these are states where the polls in those states have closed but we have not yet been able to make a projection in those states. These other states, these white states out here, they have not yet closed, the polls in those states, although at the top of the hour, at 10:00 p.m. Eastern, they're going to be closing more of those states.
We're going to have a lot more of our coverage. Remember, if you want to be John King, you can do it. You can go to CNN.com and play around. See if you can come up with a formula that would bring Senator McCain to 270, the needed number to be elected president of the United States. You can go to CNN.com and figure it out, if possible. Stay with us. Our coverage continues after this.
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BLITZER: Two more projections coming in to the CNN Election Center right now. New Mexico, five electoral votes, we project Barack Obama will carry New Mexico. He worked hard there. So did Senator McCain. But New Mexico will go for Barack Obama. Louisiana, we project will go for Senator McCain. Those nine electoral votes in Louisiana will go for Senator McCain; 13 percent of the precincts have now reported in Louisiana. Based on the actual numbers, as well as the exit polls, we say Louisiana, its nine electoral votes, will go for senator McCain. Let's take a look at the race to 270 now: 199 for Obama, 78 for Senator McCain; 270 the magic number. The blue states, the Democratic candidates, the red states the Republican candidates. The yellow states, those are states where the polls have closed, but we are not yet able to make a projection. The white states, still those polls haven't closed there yet.
The popular vote right now, look at how close it is, with about a quarter of the vote now in. Look at this, a 49 percent for McCain, 50 percent for Senator Obama. Almost 40 million votes are now -- have now been counted, and there's only a difference in advantage for Senator Obama of 320,000 votes. Wow! Look at how close that is, that popular vote right now, with only -- with some 23 percent of the vote actually tallied. It's very, very close, closer the popular vote, Anderson, not so close, at least not now, in that electoral vote, which is clearly all important. The popular vote is nice, but it's the electoral vote that makes the difference.
COOPER: And Obama is racing toward 270 right now. We calculate he has 199 and John McCain has 78. It is fascinating when you see the popular vote, just how close it is, with so much of the country already voted. Although, we don't have the results from California, which is obviously a massive state.
BORGER: The thing looking at what happened in Ohio, which was such a key state for Republicans to win the presidential -- to win the presidency. The economy, throughout all of these states, we see -- 90 percent of the people in Ohio said economy was their chief issue; 82 percent disapproved of the war in Iraq; 54 percent of those who voted for Obama said he would be -- that McCain was tied to Bush and would just continue Bush's policies. I think as we look at the exit polls throughout all these states, Anderson, we'll see that pattern time and time again.
GERGEN: I also found interesting in Ohio, if you look at the exit polls, when they asked which quality mattered most in the candidate, is it experience, caring about you; the quality that most people said -- a plurality said was will bring change. Obama won that group 92 to five, 92 to five. McCain simply could not sustain the argument that he would represent change. He was too closely tied to George W. Bush.
COOPER: And Barack Obama identified the word change, identified that as a mantra so long ago and was so prescient in doing so.
GERGEN: Exactly. And he used it both against Hillary Clinton and John McCain.
COOPER: She tried to use experience. Then she tried to adapt, for real change you need experience. But no one could take the change mantle away from Barack Obama.
GERGEN: It also means he has to deliver change. It also puts a lot of pressure on him.
BORGER: But McCain did exactly what Hillary Clinton did. He started out with experience, then became the change candidate, and then tried to be the experience candidate who would bring you change. It was the Hillary Clinton campaign, and that didn't work for Hillary Clinton.
BENNETT: Well, when you list all the boulders on the path on the way to the summit, if Barack Obama win, that John McCain was facing -- some of this has been written up already -- I think people are going to say it's quite extraordinary that he was anywhere close to these kinds of numbers. This is almost a perfect storm for Barack Obama, and a perfect storm against John McCain. Again, it's too early to say that.
COOPER: But unprecedented amounts of money on the side of Barack Obama, the economic issues.
BENNETT: Not just the economic issue. It was a fairly close race before September 15th. Coming in early September, after the Republican convention, it was even maybe McCain was a little ahead. Then comes the economic cataclysm. But some of the others things that Gloria has cited.
BORGER: I would add Sarah Palin into that for independent voters.
BENNETT: We'll debate that.
COOPER: We have six hours.
BENNETT: Thankfully, that subject hadn't yet come up.
BORGER: Sorry.
COOPER: Gloria, every hour, has been sending me, have we talked about Palin yet?
BENNETT: Anyway, there's also the two terms. George Bush is unpopular. This country likes to change leader. It says, give the other guys a chance. This time, they were really mad at the guy in the White House and there were some very rough things happening in the country.
COOPER: We have some more poll closings, some more projections. We want to take a quick break. We'll have a lot more ahead. Stay tuned.
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BLITZER: In a few minutes, four more states will be closing, 20 electoral votes at stake, Iowa, Utah, Montana, and Nevada. We're watching that and think we will have some projections.
COOPER: It's been a very exciting night. There's still a lot to go. I want to talk more with our panel back here. We were talking about it a little bit during the break, David Gergen. When you see the two campaign events that we are watching, the Grant Park event that the Obama camp has in Chicago, and you have the McCain event at the Arizona Biltmore, and you see them side by side, as we're about to show our viewers, it tells a story about this campaign. It tells a story about what has been happening out there.
GERGEN: It is, symbolically. I think it sort of captures the story. One has this solemn mood. In fact, we saw what almost seemed to be a choir or something out there earlier tonight. It was as if they -- it was sort of the final rights or something. Whereas, this excitement in Grant Park, which in itself so symbolic. Grant Park is where the Democratic party fell apart in 1968 with the Chicago police. Here now, it's the site for a celebration for many Democrats. They would like to think this is the renewal of the Democratic party.
COOPER: If we were able to show those pictures, by the way, it would aid our discussion, but --
MARTIN: Also, in Chicago, that's where Lulapalooza's (ph) held, the music festival. When you had these rock stars who had their major concerts, that the park they held them in. So he's capturing this whole sentiment. It was also interesting, throughout this campaign -- isn't it amazing --
GERGEN: They're doing a little more --
MARTIN: They probably heard you saying it spice it up, David. When Obama started having 15,000, 20,000 people rallies, we were kind of like, OK. As he ends this campaign, 100,000 in Missouri, 200,000 total in Ohio. It's just amazing.
COOPER: How surprised do you think the Obama campaign was early on by -- some of their supporters and critics have said it wasn't just the campaign. They were trying to create a movement. Do you think they identified that early on as this has the potential to be a movement?
BENNETT: You can't take the romance out of American political life either. It really is true. American people like to fall in love a little bit with their candidate. He captured a lot of people's imagination, he really did, young and old, white and black. And that was a kind of magic for him, no question.
TOOBIN: Sarah Palin used the phrase the real America to talk about rural America. And I think one of the things we're seeing here is those crowds at the Barack Obama rallies that are racially diverse, that are gender diverse, that are economically diverse, that's the real America.
COOPER: I read something online, someone saying today that the McCain campaign made a mistake believing that Joe the Plumber was America, but that the face of America has changed. Did they not realize that or is that incorrect?
BORGER: I think it's a different America that Barack Obama understood. It is the passing of the torch. It is a new electorate. It is a more diverse electorate. It is a younger electorate. And Joe the plumber appealed to a certain part of the electorate that is shrinking and not growing. MARTIN: It is insulting by the McCain people to suggest the other parts of America aren't the real America. It was insulting.
BENNETT: We'll see if America's changed. Is it still a center right country? A lot of people think it isn't.
BLITZER: All guys, thanks very much. In a few seconds, it will be 10:00 P.M. here on the East Coast. Four more states are getting ready to close all their polls, Iowa, Montana, Nevada and Utah.
