Return to Transcripts main page
Campbell Brown
America Votes; Interview With Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele
Aired November 03, 2009 - 20:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
CAMPBELL BROWN, CNN ANCHOR: Hi, everybody.
We are live tonight from the CNN Election Center in New York. I'm Campbell Brown.
And just moments ago, the polls closed in New Jersey, only one of the races we are watching for you tonight. CNN is live in the battlegrounds, contests in Virginia, New York, Houston, Atlanta and beyond. We are bringing you all the very latest election returns tonight.
And, more importantly, I think we have got the big picture as well. This is the first major election since Barack Obama won the White House. And the president has a lot riding on tonight's vote. We are going to look at how it could affect his top priorities, like health care reform.
Meantime, after a year in the political wilderness, Republicans finally looking forward to what looks to be a strong showing tonight. We have the best political team on television with me all night tonight.
And we're going to start with Wolf Blitzer, though, first in Washington.
And, Wolf, bring us up to speed on the results so far, what we should be watching for tonight.
And I know you have just called one. So, let us know what the results are.
WOLF BLITZER, CNN ANCHOR: Well, as you know, Campbell, the polls closed in Virginia an hour ago. And now, just a few seconds ago, we have projected a winner, a winner in Virginia.
The Republican Bob McDonnell, we project he will be the next governor of Virginia, beating Creigh Deeds. He's the Democratic candidate. With 32 percent of the predicts now reporting, 64 percent for Bob McDonnell, almost 400,000 votes, to 36 percent for Creigh Deeds, 219,000 votes.
It will narrow as we get in, but take a look at the precincts that have started to report already. All the red, that's for the Republican, the blue for the Democrat. Take a look up in Fairfax County, though. Now, the results haven't come in yet. That's a largely Democratic area, the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C. As a result, the gap will narrow, but we have projected that Bob McDonnell will become the next governor of Virginia.
In -- in New York -- in New Jersey, we're watching that race right now. The polls are just closing in New Jersey. And, as you know, Jon Corzine, the incumbent -- well, before we get to New Jersey, let's talk about New York, New York City.
The race for mayor of New York will close in one hour. We know that the incumbent, Michael Bloomberg, is running for a third term. Bill Thompson, the Democrat, is challenging him. But Bloomberg has spent a lot of his own money. And he's, according to the polls, likely to win.
But that poll closes in less than an hour from now in New York. If we take a look in New Jersey and in New York, the congressional district that we're following, the special election in Upstate New York -- let's talk about New Jersey. Those polls have just closed in New Jersey just a couple of minutes a lot, and three candidates running. Chris Christie is the Republican challenge Jon Corzine, the Democratic incumbent. Chris Daggett is the independent third-party candidate.
Right now, we have not been able to project a winner based on the exit polling.
In New York, we will take a look at New York's Congressional District 23.
A lot of interest, as you know, Campbell, in this district. Dede Scozzafava, the Republican candidate, she dropped out over the weekend, so it's really a two-man contest now between the Democrat, Bill Owens, and the Conservative, Doug Hoffman.
The polls there close 9:00 p.m. Eastern, so we will watch all of that -- Campbell, back to you.
BROWN: All right, Wolf. It has been fascinating to watch what's been happening in New York.
And we should mention it was in Virginia that Barack Obama won just a year ago, so we're going to talk with our best political team on television about what seems to be happening in Virginia tonight.
We should also mention, as Wolf said, the voting just ending in New Jersey. And while President Obama's name wasn't on the ballot, exit polls do reveal a lot about what people think about him right now.
Soledad O'Brien is here with the latest. She's been watching all the exit polling.
Soledad, what do you got?
SOLEDAD O'BRIEN, CNN SPECIAL CORRESPONDENT: You know what is really interesting, I think?
We talked earlier about how critical the independent voters would be in this Virginia race. And we have definitely seen that happen, heavily leaning toward McDonnell. And we followed that for a while, but two other candidates, Campbell, I want to talk to you about.
The first is men. Take a look at some of these numbers, Bob McDonnell getting 58 percent for men, and Deeds getting 42 percent. Another interesting category of note, rural voters, McDonnell getting 66 percent, Deeds 33 percent. Here you have the candidate who is from a rural area. These should be folks that he is really appealing to.
These are two interesting categories for a couple of reasons. Number one, these are categories that show the biggest drop from Obama a year ago. So, I think those are interesting to note. And a couple of things at work here. First, Creigh is rural area, so that could be considered a personal failing on his point, an inability to get those voters.
Also, Creigh was campaigning saying he was no Obama Democrat. That may be -- turned out to be a big problem for him. And then also you have this coattails issue. And I think we're going to be talking about this tonight a lot.
Was Obama able to drag along folks in his party, not just Obama bringing himself along, but others with him? And I think this kind of number really is an indication that, no, the coattails are not there. There's no power in the coattail. And I know we're going to be talking about that a lot more as we see more of these exit polls come in -- Campbell.
BROWN: All right, Soledad, appreciate it. We will be checking back in you shortly.
A lot of questions we're going to try to answer for you tonight, along with obviously who won and who lost. But what do these results say about President Obama's job performance, about his standing with voters one year after his election?
As I have said, we have the members of the best political team on television with me tonight.
And let me bring in a few of them now.
And, James Carville, let me have you address the first point that Soledad made.
It's all about the independent voter in politics right now. And if you believe what the exit polls are telling us, Democrats are losing them. How much of a problem is it for the White House, for the party going forward?
JAMES CARVILLE, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, they're losing them in Virginia, to be sort of specific here.
And obviously everybody expects, it's being reported that the Republicans are going to have a big night tonight. We will see.
Obviously, congratulations, by the way, to Governor McDonnell. That's a big win in Virginia for the Republican. But it's a long night and we have to see. But, sure, you always -- you always want to carry independent voters. And we will have to see as the night progresses.
And, understand, this is not a national election in the sense that it's pretty isolated around the country where these returns are coming in.
BROWN: Whether that is true or not, everyone is going to be talking about it as if it is. We all do.
And that's a fair question, the point that James just made, Candy. Are we jumping the gun a little bit to be calling this a referendum on the president right now?
CANDY CROWLEY, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: I do think referendum is a little too strong a word for the reasons -- some of the reasons that James talks about, which is there are some local issues at play here, and because if, as we see in the exit polls, that the economy is overriding issue, well, the person who has led the economy in New Jersey has been Governor Corzine. So he's having a rough time up there. And he's a Democrat.
The Democrats have also been in the governorship in Virginia. So they're the incumbents, who would necessarily take the blame for the economy, as opposed to a president who's been in office for nine months.
So, look, I think it says something about the president. He did go into these places. He did campaign for these, as he should. And the idea was -- and what he said every time he went in was, if you will just come out for this governor the way you came out for me, then we can continue on.
So, there's something there that has not translated for Democrats.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: Hold on one second, Roland. I want to get Mary's take on this, because I want the Republican spin, which -- not necessarily spin, OK, but I'm guessing that you have a little bit of a different take on this.
(LAUGHTER)
(CROSSTALK)
MARY MATALIN, CNN POLITICAL CONTRIBUTOR: ... truth.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: Yes.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: What do you think?
MATALIN: Well, let me just pick up on what James said.
It's not that it's only Virginia where independents are being lost to the Democrats. All polls across the board are showing, including the CNN exit polls and ongoing polls, that independents are cutting away from Democrats. They're not becoming Republicans. They're not identifying as Republicans. They're identifying as independents.
But they're philosophically conservative. So, that -- that is a concern going forward, that we shouldn't confuse -- and we're going to do this a lot tonight -- Republicans and Democrats and independents with conservatives and liberals, because that's going to be determinative relative to policy, not party affiliation.
And what's stopping health care and is going to stop cap and trade are conservative Democrats.
BROWN: But, if Mary's right, David Gergen and this is about more than just one state and the state of Virginia, is it -- what does it mean? Is it about the president? Is it about the national party? Or is this more about local issues and what is happening in the state level in New Jersey and Virginia and some of these other places?
DAVID GERGEN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: I think Candy's right that you can't read this as a referendum, that it's important not to over-read these elections.
But these elections do give you a pretty good sense of the way the winds are blowing. And that's also important to understand in politics. After all, in 2006, the winds were blowing very strongly in a Democratic direction. They were again in 2008.
And now to be in 2009 and to have them blowing the other way, it's important. It says our landscape is changing, that people are having some reactions. There's some pushback. And the Democrats cannot take their power for granted. They're going to have earn these elections, because the Republicans, who are a leaderless party, whose brand has been hurt by a lot of what has been going on, nationally are still showing a lot of strength in some of these local elections.
BROWN: Hang on, everybody. We have another projection we want to make real quick, so I want to take it back to Wolf Blitzer there in Washington -- Wolf.
BLITZER: That's right, Campbell.
In addition to projecting that the Republican candidate would become the next governor of Virginia, we're now ready to project that there will effectively be a sweep for the Republicans in the state of Virginia.
Bill Bolling, the Republican lieutenant governor candidate, he will be reelected. We're projecting that Bolling will win. He will beat Jody Wagner. And, for attorney general, Ken Cuccinelli, the Republican candidate, will defeat Steve Shannon -- so, a big night for the Republicans in Virginia.
So, it looks like the Republicans are going to sweep all three of these statewide contests, the governor's race, the lieutenant governor's race, and the contest for attorney general of Virginia.
So, it's shaping up, at least in Virginia, Campbell, as a big night for the GOP.
BROWN: Certainly is, Wolf. We're going to keep an eye on it all. We have a lot more to talk about with the best political team on television. They're going to be with us all night.
We will be back right after this.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: And you're looking at our countdown clock right now, 47 minutes, looks like, until the polls close right here in New York.
We just called the state of Virginia. The governor's race has been closely watched there, the Republican winning that race.
We want to bring in Republican Party Chairman Michael Steele to talk to us right now from Virginia tonight.
Welcome to you, Mr. Chairman.
MICHAEL STEELE, CHAIRMAN, REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE: Hey, Campbell. How's it going?
BROWN: Pretty good for you, from the looks of things so far.
(LAUGHTER)
BROWN: Let me get your reaction. What do you think?
STEELE: Well, I think it's a very good night tonight for the party here in Virginia and certainly for the people of Virginia, who made a very clear statement about the direction they wanted their state to go.
So, I'm just honored to be here and to have been a part of it. We have got a lot of work ahead of us still, as we get ready for 2010, but tonight's a great night to celebrate Bob McDonnell and his team and the leadership they brought to this race. And I think the response of the people of Virginia has just been fantastic.
BROWN: Let me ask you, health care about Bob McDonnell, a Christian conservative himself, but also really pushed more moderate issues in this race and tried to highlight his stance on certain issues as more of a moderate.
Do you think that that's the direction you're headed, or is that tailor-made for this state that he needed to go in that direction to win? STEELE: Well, I actually kind of disagree with the -- with the analysis there. I don't think he, you know, pushed a moderate tone or whatever.
What he did was responded to the concerns that the people of Virginia had. He brought his conservative principles. he didn't shy away from being conservative. He didn't try to dress it up as Democrat-lite or anything.
He said: Here I am. I want to serve the people of Virginia to deal with transportation and health care. And he put those principles to work through the policies he articulated. And people just felt that connection. They felt that this gentleman resonated with them a lot better than Creigh Deeds did. And they voted for him overwhelmingly, I believe, tonight.
BROWN: So, in your view, what does this say about the president, about the national picture here? Is this just about Virginia, or is it about something more?
STEELE: No, I didn't think it's just about Virginia.
I think it's about leadership paying attention to what people are saying. When you don't listen, when you don't take into account their concerns, they will respond. And they responded here tonight.
And I think the president, the White House, certainly the leadership in Congress as they prepare to vote on a health care bill that no one wants, they need to pay attention. There are ramifications. Their votes are being paid attention to. And people are going to respond next year if they don't think the direction that the administration and the Congress are going in is the one they think the country should go in.
BROWN: Let me ask you about the race in New York that's been getting so much attention. You originally supported the Republican Party candidate in this race. You had a lot of big-name Republicans who defied you, who rallied against her.
Do you think your party is divided on the types of candidates who should be running?
STEELE: Well, I'm amused that you say they defied me. Oh, I wish I had that kind of power, that people could defy me.
No, look, this was a local decision that was made by seven or nine county chairmen who selected Ms. Scozzafava. They didn't have a primary. She was not the choice of the primary voters.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: But you supported her.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: But hold on a second, because you were behind her. The national party was behind her. So, it wasn't a bunch of local guys.
(CROSSTALK)
STEELE: Excuse me. Excuse me. I didn't select her. The national party didn't select her. So, what do you think I'm going to do as the national chairman when the state party committees select her, when the state party, this is their nominee?
Come on, Campbell. You know how this works.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: All right. But...
STEELE: You would be making a whole story if I said as a national chairman the other way.
This is the bottom line. It was a local decision that was made. They made that choice. As a national chairman, I supported the state party in their choice. The primary is what you saw played out in the last few weeks.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: Let me just clarify, though. Do you think she was a bad pick?
STEELE: It wasn't my pick to make. So, whether I thought it was bad or not doesn't matter. The local party made that decision.
(CROSSTALK)
STEELE: The national party supports the state party and the local party in their decision. I don't get the privilege to go around the country and pick and choose winners and losers. I have to live with the decision that's made at the state level and the local level in these elections.
Sometimes, you like the choice. Sometimes, you don't. But it's their choice. And my job as a national chairman is to make sure that when the state party says, we want to try to win this race, we're there.
Clearly, the people in that direct had a different perspective. They should have had a primary there. I think, if they had, the results would have been where they are tonight, with Hoffman potentially winning that seat.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: Let me ask you, though, you did say that parties -- and these are your words here -- need to be careful about outsiders coming in and dictating outcomes of local elections.
STEELE: Absolutely.
BROWN: So, does that mean that you think Sarah Palin and some of the other big names...
STEELE: That would include me.
(LAUGHTER)
BROWN: Yourself included -- do you think they shouldn't have intervened there?
STEELE: No, no, that's a different -- that's a -- you're talking an apple and an orange.
Getting ahead of the process to try to dictate a particular outcome is not the role of the national chairman, is not the role of anyone else for that matter who does not live in that district.
Once that choice is made, as an individual, I can make -- I can say, living in Maryland or Texas or someplace else, wow, I don't appreciate that. I support someone else.
That's your option as an individual and as a party leader without -- without the responsibility of representing the entire party as a national chairman, you have that freedom. I don't as a national chairman. I support my state party leadership. I support their efforts. And where I disagree and think they need to change, as I think they need to do in this case, I will talk to them about maybe you should think about a primary system, so you don't have this problem in the future.
BROWN: All right.
Chairman Steele, sharing you views tonight, we appreciate it. A lot more to talk about on this subject in the days ahead obviously. Thank you for your time.
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: You just heard from the Republican Party chairman. Coming up next, we're going to get some reaction from Democrats, what they think of what Steele just said, more voting results, as election night in America continues.
Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: While we are watching the election results tonight, apparently, the president is not, according to a couple of White House officials, David Axelrod, Robert Gibbs. Both say that the president is not watching the election results. He's not putting together an election party
Axelrod says the president is more likely to watch the Bulls and Bucks basketball game tonight than he is this.
No interest in politics, apparently, over at the White House. You believe that, right? Let me bring in some of the other members of our best political team on television.
Donna Brazile, we just heard from Michael Steele a moment ago. You heard his spin on -- well, you can't deny the fact Republicans appear to be having a good night, at least from what we have seen so far.
What do you think? What is your take?
DONNA BRAZILE, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, first of all, the night is early, so we don't know how good the night will be.
And, besides, if history is any guide, this is not a good night for party in the power, because it's difficult to win races after you have won the presidential race.
That said, the Republicans still -- they're dealing with a civil war in their party. And that's something that they will have to start out. And Mary knows best how to help them with that result.
But I want to say that Mr. McDonnell, congratulations. He ran a very good campaign. Deeds had a very difficult time, not only getting the base to go out and support him, but also in connecting with independents.
He ran a very negative campaign. And there's one thing we have learned about independents. They do not like this type of negative campaigning.
BROWN: Gloria, you've heard from both sides, Michael Steele and now Donna Brazile. Gloria Borger, your take.
GLORIA BORGER, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, I think Michael steel doesn't want to claim responsibility for a candidate in the Republican Party who withdrew, whom they spent a lot of money on, who seemed to be out of line with the way a lot of Republicans were thinking, at least on the social issues.
And, so, he was saying, whoa, whoa, not my fault. We spent a lot of money on her, but never mind.
As for Virginia, I think you do have to think of President Obama when you see what's gone on in Virginia tonight, 62 percent of independent voters for the Republican candidate, 67 percent of white men for the Republican candidate.
And 73 percent of the people who voted for McDonnell said they were worried about the economy. That is a signal to this White House that they have got some problems right now, particularly on the economy and on the deficit.
BROWN: Roland, do you agree with that?
MARTIN: Well, what it means, also, is the Democrats have to understand that you cannot rely on what took place a year ago. That is, they have -- the so-called Obama revolution was supposed to mirror the Reagan revolution. I'm sorry, that movement is missing in action. And so they have to continue to keep African-Americans, Hispanics, young voters engaged.
You have to take that from election to election. You cannot simply rely on, hey, come on out and get Pookie off the couch. No, you have to keep them engaged day after day after day after day. They have not done that.
BROWN: Jeff, what happened to that big Obama election machine that was so powerful? Where did it go?
(CROSSTALK)
GERGEN: Pookie. Where is Pookie?
(CROSSTALK)
MARTIN: When President Obama was in New Jersey, he said, hey, I know Pookie. Get Pookie off the couch to come vote. He said (INAUDIBLE) an election, that's Pookie, the person sitting at home who doesn't vote, but complains all day.
BROWN: OK.
I'm glad that we have been enlightened, OK?
(CROSSTALK)
BROWN: Go ahead.
JEFFREY TOOBIN, CNN SENIOR LEGAL ANALYST: Because, so far, we're talking about Virginia, period.
And the question is, are Virginia voters, were they more excited by Barack Obama or Creigh Deeds? That's a pretty easy question and a pretty easy answer. He was a lousy candidate. He didn't have a message. He distanced himself from the base of the Democratic Party. And he lost big.
I don't draw a lot of conclusions from that. I think it means Virginia's going to have a governor, and that's about it.
BROWN: OK. Going to take a quick break.
A lot more to talk about and more results coming to very shortly. We are waiting again on big races. Everyone's right. We have only Virginia to talk about so far, but we are waiting on big races in New York, in New Jersey.
Also, President Obama, promises kept, promises broken. One year after his election, we are keeping score.
And you can talk to the best political team on television right now as well online. Log in to CNN.com/Campbell and do that right now. (COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: At this hour, they are counting votes in races that could be, could be crystal balls for President Obama's political fortunes next year and in 2012.
So far, there is nothing for the White House to cheer about, at least so far. Virginia, which went for Obama last year, is going Republican in a big way tonight.
We are live tonight in the CNN Election Center. We have the best political team on television with us.
We want to first, though, check in once again with Wolf Blitzer down in Washington.
Wolf, bring us up to speed on all of tonight's big races.
BLITZER: Well, we have projected that the Republicans will have a clean sweep in Virginia. The race for governor, lieutenant governor, attorney general, the Republicans will win all three.
But in New Jersey right now, we have not been able to project a winner, but we do have some actual votes that are coming in right now in New Jersey in this three-man race, Chris Christie, the Republican candidate, with 51 percent -- only 1 percent of the precincts are now in -- 16,396 votes, 40 percent for Jon Corzine, the Democrat incumbent, Chris Daggett -- he's the third-party independent candidate -- with 8 percent of the vote, 2,500.
Remember, this is very early. If you take a look at the map, you see the red, that big chunk along the coast there, the Atlantic Coast, that's a largely Republican area. That's why it's showing that Chris Christie, those early votes coming in.
But it's still a lot of counties up in New Jersey that have yet to be counted. So, we will watch this closely, but we're in no shape to project a winner in this New Jersey by any means -- Campbell.
BROWN: All right, Wolf, we will be checking in with you again as we have more information.
Tomorrow marks exactly one year since Barack Obama was elected president. As tonight's votes come in, we are taking a close look at which campaign promises he has kept and which ones he has broken.
And Bill Adair is the editor of the Pulitzer Prize-winning PolitiFact.com, home of the Obameter.
And, Bill...
BILL ADAIR, EDITOR, POLITIFACT.COM: Obameter.
BROWN: Obameter. Oh, sorry.
ADAIR: Yes. (LAUGHTER)
BROWN: I guess I should have figured that one out. I'm sorry about that, Bill.
OK. You have been doing a lot of math, I know. You have broken it down so far into how many promises the president has made, how many he has kept, how many broken overall. Give us the numbers.
ADAIR: You bet.
We have catalogued 515 individual promises that Barack Obama made as a -- as a candidate. And, so far, we have rated 49 of those as promises kept. And we've got 14 so far that are -- that we have rated promises broken. The others are either in the works or some of them we haven't yet rated. So, you know, he's making some progress.
BROWN: All right. So start with the positive, if you will here, Bill. Give us the three promises that the president has kept so far.
ADAIR: You bet. Yes, of the 14, a couple of the bigger ones, he promised to create a foreclosure prevention fund for homeowners. We've got that as a promise kept. He said that he would appoint at least one Republican to his cabinet. We've rated that one a promise kept. And also he promised to reverse restrictions on stem cell research. So, that's just a sampling of some of the ones.
BROWN: OK, and not all can be perfect in 10 months. Give us some of the promises he's broken.
ADAIR: You bet. Yes, and of this, like I said, we have 14 total that he has broken. They include his promise on ending the resolving door for lobbyists. He's actually broken that twice in our view.
Another one he called sunlight for signing. He promised a five- day waiting period before he would sign a bill from Congress. He's broken that several times. And also he promised to end income taxes on seniors that make less than $50,000 a year and there was just no movement on that. The administration seems to have abandoned that promise.
BROWN: All right. Bill Adair with us tonight on promises broken, promises kept. Bill, thank you very much. Appreciate it.
As we have said, tonight's returns still coming in. Not too soon, though, to start asking what is next, whether it's for the president, for the Democrats, for the Republicans and conservatives who want to push the GOP even further to the right.
And back with me now to talk about all these issues, the best political team on television. And I want to bring in former Congressman Dick Armey who is joining us tonight from Washington, I believe.
Are you there, Congressman?
DICK ARMEY, CHAIRMAN, FREEDOMWORKS: Yes, I'm here from Dallas.
BROWN: Oh, Dallas. OK, I knew you weren't here in the studio with us. I was wondering where you were tonight.
ARMEY: See the big smile on my face. That's a Texan smile.
BROWN: Good to see you with your Texan smile. All right. We've been waiting -- we're still waiting on the results from that congressional race that we've been talking about in upstate New York. That's, of course, the one where Sarah Palin, where the tea party crowd endorsed a third party candidate, essentially forcing the Republican out of the race. You have been a key leader in the tea party movement. Tell me what a victory tonight there would represent for you.
ARMEY: Well, first of all, let's understand something. I have FreedomWorks activists in upstate New York and they watched this process of nominating this candidate by the Republicans and they called us and advised us immediately that the Republicans just lost this race. They nominated what's in effect a Democrat has been proven to have been a correct analysis by my activist on the run.
When the long standing conservative party candidate emerged, people who love small government conservativism, individual liberty, respect the constitution, want restraint of the big excesses that are going on in Washington gravitated to the true conservative in the race. So the fact of the matter is, this third party candidate did not knock the Republican candidate out, she was a loser on the day she was born in that candidacy and a lot of people saw it and knew it to be the case.
BROWN: Let me bring also to get another Republican take on this, Alex Castellanos. Alex, with what happened in New York, you just heard Congressman Armey lay it out there. Do you think this signals something bigger going on within your party?
ALEX CASTELLANOS, REPUBLICAN CONSULTANT: Well, it signals something going on in the Democratic Party. And that means that when they're in such trouble nationally that they can be beaten by a conservative in New York.
You know, this is nearly Canada. We're actually north of Toronto here in New York. But the Democrats are also having trouble in the state like Virginia where it's not just Bob McDonnell who is winning, but it's two other statewide offices and Republicans are going to pick up seven or eight delegate seats. They're not all bad candidates in Virginia that the Democrats ran this year, so there's something bigger than that happening to the Democrats.
But the point is in Virginia, for example, Republicans found their voice. They found a way to not only stand on their principles, but to say look, our principles are good for saying yes as well as no. We're going to grow this economy. We're going to invest in your hopes and dreams, not Washington's plans and policies. And that's why Republicans I think are being effective not only on their base as in New York, but they're being effective in the middle. BROWN: But let me ask you, Alex, because I can't seem to get any of the Republicans to address and maybe you just don't think it's going on, what clearly appears to be a divide within the party. I mean, there are some people who want to go much further to the right. I mean, what we saw in New York was not just an anomaly or was it? You tell me.
CASTELLANOS: I think it's just not exactly the right way to look at it, Campbell. Republicans are a conservative party. All Republicans generally are. The question is not can you win the middle by going more to the right. The question is can you stand on your conservative principles and win the middle by explaining how your principles would create a better state.
Bob McDonnell did that in Virginia. He was optimistic, forward looking. Now in New York, the conservative candidate I think got by just by being an alternative to Democratic big spending. The economy is a national issue as well as a local one and so just being an alternative up there was enough. But at the end of the day, Republicans have to do what McDonnell did in Virginia and that is present a vision for the future. Here is how what we believe would take our country in these states to a better place.
BROWN: All right.
CASTELLANOS: And by the way, Republicans won even in St. Petersburg, the mayor's race. So it's not just in one place.
BROWN: All right. Stand by, everybody stand by. We've got a lot more to talk about. Election returns still rolling in.
Stay right here for the very latest, more announcements with the best political team on television. You can talk to them right now on- line. Really you can. Log on to CNN.com/Campbell.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: And welcome back. You are looking at our countdown clock. Looks like 21 minutes just about until the polls close right here in the state of New York. We're going to be updating you on this race throughout the hour, or throughout the night, frankly.
A lot to talk about coming up including what the results for tonight mean for President Obama, for his agenda. We're going to bring in lots of analysis from the best political team on television. But I first want to bring in Jeff Toobin, our own Jeff Toobin to talk about what's going on at the local level relating to gay marriage because it's a huge night tonight and it's getting largely overlooked because of some of these other races.
TOOBIN: Yes, with all respect to New Jersey and Virginia, I think the really lasting political story tonight is going to be in Maine and Washington. Because in both of those two states, you have potentially for the first time, the voters embracing same-sex marriage. Every time same-sex marriage has been brought to the state it's been either through the state legislature or through the courts. Here in Maine, same-sex marriage is on the ballot. In Washington State, it's civil unions on the ballot. And it looks like the main election is very close. The early returns show the pro same-sex marriage forces in the lead. In Washington State, the polls seem to be heading in the direction of approval of civil unions. That's a big cultural change, when every time the voters have spoken on this issue before in every state they've said no.
BROWN: Because the referendum makes it more lasting, makes it more powerful, more meaningful than something happening in the state.
TOOBIN: It just shows the country is changing on an individual level, individual voters. These aren't the elites. It used to be perceived as just the elites, the judges, the legislatures in favor of same-sex marriage. This potentially will see how the results are with the voters.
BROWN: All right. I know it's still early for everybody, and we've only called one race. We are going to talk big picture, though, James.
CARVILLE: All right.
BROWN: As dismissive as you may be...
CARVILLE: No, I'm not.
BROWN: ... but talk to me a little bit about -- if it does appear that Republicans have some momentum coming out of tonight...
CARVILLE: Right.
BROWN: ... what it means for 2012, even more near term, what it may mean for the president and his agenda, especially if we're talking about health care reform.
CARVILLE: It's a very good question. And what's clear in Virginia, this is clear in the national polls. The Republicans are more gassed up. The Pukie or Dukie or whatever he is, he did not vote today.
ROLAND MARTIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Pukie did not show up.
CARVILLE: Pukie didn't show up. But they are -- they're more gassed up. If the Democrats have a bad night and understand the entire thing is in the New Jersey governor's race. The translation is going to be if Corzine slips (ph) it out, the Democrats well, you know what, we lost one, we won one.
BROWN: Right.
CARVILLE: But let's assume that the Democrats lose in New Jersey. It could have an affect that people in Congress will say you know, I'm not going to go along with some of Obama's stuff. I'm really scared. We've got to be careful. We're going into (INAUDIBLE). There could be a reaction to that. Maybe even an overreaction which could be a danger. That's something that could have some implications.
But there's no doubt, I mean I'm very comfortable in saying that in Virginia, as the national polls say, the Republican base is more jacked up right now. Now they've got to keep them jacked up for a year, which is not going to be easy to do and that assumes that the Democrats don't start coming out more. We got a long time to go here.
BORGER: And, James, don't underestimate really the importance of that intensity issue because in the 2008 election, Democrats were 19 percent more enthusiastic about voting for their candidate than Republicans than the north poll today at CNN. It just shows --
CARVILLE: I'm acknowledging it.
BORGER: Yes. Yes.
CARVILLE: And I'm not underestimating, I'm bringing it up to a sort of adverse (INAUDIBLE).
BORGER: But how do you get him -- how do you get your voters jazzed up, that's the question?
BROWN: So, Mary, I heard a lot of people compare this to 1993 when you saw a few wins in a few places and what it did was allow Republicans to overall garner more enthusiasm, recruit better candidates for the next round of races, raise more money. Could you see a similar thing happening?
MATALIN: It's already happening. The recruitment is up. Money is up. Generic ballot is up. The standing on issues is up.
The only thing that's down is people who are identifying as Republicans. But as I said earlier, they're identifying as conservatives and they're voting as conservatives. And if you care about who's in the majority, then you want your -- it's not a good Republican thing, but if you care about the policy that gets done, it's a good conservative thing.
An issue in the New York 23, which we haven't talked about is Nancy Pelosi, 2-1. So people are making a connection to voting for the Democrat even if he's a conservative, she's a conservative, and his or her having to vote with Nancy Pelosi. It's on issues -- these are very issues driven and that Obama might be part of it doesn't mean he has to be all of it, but those issues are driving independents away from Democrats and it's the Republican Party's job to do what Alex said earlier, and tell them why they should vote for the Republicans.
BROWN: David Gergen -- or go ahead, Donna.
BRAZILE: Well, last fall, voters clearly went to the polls and they signaled that they wanted change. This year they're going to basically vote for candidates who they believe will deliver the change that they wanted last fall.
I think it's incumbent upon Democrats to look at these results and decide if they're going to continue to push for the changes that voters called for last year or whether or not they're going to spend the next year trying to find some census from Republicans who clearly have come to the table empty handed --
UNIDENTIFIED MALE: That's right.
BRAZILE: ... empty-handed waiting for Democrats to make mistakes so that they can whine.
BROWN: David.
GERGEN: I just have a couple of things. First of all, Jeffrey, I want to go back to the same-sex. I may have misunderstood you in Maine and Washington. We've actually had referendum by voters on same-sex marriage as in California just a year ago.
TOOBIN: No, no. It's never passed.
(CROSSTALK)
GERGEN: This is the first time they may have won.
TOOBIN: Exactly. Yes. In many states, that's the point, many states have voted it down. This is the chance that it may pass.
GERGEN: Right, but it is Maine?
TOOBIN: Yes.
GERGEN: So it doesn't necessarily say we're in a new day on this issue, unfortunately. I think we're a long way.
BROWN: It starts in Maine and sweeps the country.
(CROSSTALK)
GERGEN: So and I don't know where Pukie goes.
But let me come back to --
MARTIN: Pukie is not in Maine.
GERGEN: Yes. I think the point that Roland and Donna are making is the critical issue here in this election is very much about who's energized, and right now the opposition is energized and it's going to be up to President Obama to get his people back out if they want to sustain this and go. Because there are a fair number of moderate Democrats who are going to be up for election next year who still got to vote on health care.
BROWN: Who he needs and needs badly.
GERGEN: And who he needs and doesn't have. And we just had Harry Reid there saying they might put health care off until next year, actually in terms of resolving it on the hill. If tonight goes badly for the Democrats, it's going to be a lot harder to get those moderate voters. BROWN: All right. I sense emergency here (ph). All right. We have a lot more to talk about.
John King is coming up with the magic wall. He's got it up and running, that's next. And, of course, as we said, you can talk to the best political team on television. Right now, log on to CNN.com/Campbell.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: And we are keeping an eye on all the election results coming in tonight. You're watching our countdown clock there. I think we got about ten more minutes until the polls close here in New York.
John King is standing by at our magic wall tonight helping us break down the vote. And, John, walk us through it. How are things stacking up when compared to a year ago?
JOHN KING, CNN CHIEF NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, we'll start a year ago, Campbell, because it's a key question you asked. This is Virginia 2008. Barack Obama wins the state by six points. First time since 1964 a Democrat carried it.
I want to pull out a few counties. This is Loudoun (ph) County. Look at this. This is the excerpts out there. The president carried it with 54 percent of the vote.
Remember this, Barack Obama carried this county with 54 percent of the vote. Today, it's a different color over here. John McCain carried this county.
Let me take the prompter off and bring this out for you here. Come on, it will work. OK, it doesn't want to work. That's because the black (ph) is on. Let's bring this county out here.
Fauquier County, you see John McCain carried that with 56 percent of the vote. So I write his total in black. Black is John McCain.
Now watch this when we go forward in time here. I'm going to bring you back to these counties. This is '09. This is our race for governor in the state of Virginia. The wall is being a little cranky. We'll get over to it, though.
Let's bring in this for you at the state of the governor. Remember what we just talked about?
This is now Bob McDonnell, 61 percent with 61 percent of the vote reporting. Barack Obama won huge in Fairfax County. Creigh Deeds is just barely winning in Fairfax County. That's the key Washington suburb.
You move over here. Loudoun (ph) County, Barack Obama carried this county. The Republican candidate is winning with 62 percent of the vote. If you come down into southern Virginia as well, this was an area where Barack Obama did quite well. Look at all that red out there. And what Bob McDonnell is doing is he's winning here in central Virgnia, too. Just a little bit Democratic vote. He's even winning in most of the are around Richmond.
This is a pretty convincing Republican victory, Campbell, 67 percent of the vote right now, more to go. But when you look at what happened last year and you look at what's happening now, you see the Republicans clearly have intensity and the Republican is clearly getting the independent votes here.
Again, it's one state as you've all been talking about all night, but this is one very close to Washington. They know everything that's going on in Washington. The concerns about spending and especially the defection of independent voters will be what Republicans are talking about in this state and here in Washington, D.C.
BROWN: All right. John King stand by. Hopefully you can join us there at the panel in a few moments. We're going to take a quick break.
Is tonight's election a sign of things to come heading into the midterm? We've been talking about that. A lot more when we come back with the best political team on television.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BROWN: We're keeping track of all the results as they come in tonight. We're back with the best political team on television.
John King back with us now. And, John, you were just walking us through it on the magic map over there. Obama was winning in terms of the counties in Virginia. What happened tonight?
But the question that a lot of people have been asking is it about the Democratic candidate for governor in Virginia or is it about Barack Obama? And what do you think? Just give us your take.
KING: I think it's a little bit of both. I think it's about the Democratic candidate for governor ran a bad campaign. I think people in Virginia will say that is first and foremost.
As Donna said, he said early on, I'm not an Obama Democrat. What signal did that send to the African-American voters who were critical to him in this election? So there are a lot of mixed signals from their candidate. That's what Democrats will say, the guy ran a bad race.
However, one of the challenges for the president, he went into the state, campaigned for the candidate. Ad on television said we did it last year, we can do it again. He tried to personalize it and say keep the movement alive. The question Democrats will be asking is what happened in 2008 just about the man, not about the message and the issues. And if it is, then the party has a more difficult time next year. UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Yes.
KING: They will study this race and say what does our turnout operation have to look like next year? What do we need to do to get the African-Americans and the young people out and don't lose those independent voters? Because that is the jigsaw puzzle of math.
Politics is about math. We make it all too complicated sometimes. It's about who gets more. And in Virginia, the Democrats won five of the last seven gubernatorial elections. They have two U.S. senators for the first time in nearly four years, and Barack Obama won the state for the first time since 1964. They lost it tonight. That's not good for the Democrats.
BROWN: Big picture, Candy Crowley, what's the takeaway here?
CROWLEY: I think the takeaway is that you have to look at tonight as a poll. You know, how we always say polls are snapshots in time. This is a snapshot in time. It does tell Barack Obama something. However, a lot can happen between now and 2010. And to extrapolate too much and superimpose it over what's going to happen in 2010 is a mistake.
BROWN: Roland.
MARTIN: You spend all his time trying to focus just on health care in Washington, D.C. and not keeping his people galvanized, they are going to lose. You have to keep the people active in the movement otherwise you will lose.
TOOBIN: Eight years ago, the Democrats swept New Jersey and Virginia and it predicted nothing. The Republicans did great a year later. I think you'd be skeptical about what tonight means.
BROWN: Yes?
CARVILLE: Yes. After a football game a team loses 52 to nothing, both the offense played bad and the defense played bad. We're losing as bad as we did in Virginia if everybody played bad.
Deeds played bad and so the trouble for Obama. I think John King is exactly right. The Democrats are having a terrible night in Virginia. There's no question about that.
BROWN: Mary?
MATALIN: I keep coming back to the same thing. You can say Republicans and Democrats, but it's really conservative-liberal. The country is two to one conservative to liberal. So you have lots of Democrats who are going to be very concerned because over 70 of them are sitting in districts that McCain or Bush won.
In New York 23, Obama won that. Even if he wins tonight, he's not going to win by much and that's got to scare and it's not a referendum per se, it's not that indicative, but it is suggestive of a tough road going into 2010, not just politically, but policy wise. BROWN: Guys, and I got to end it there. We are out of time, but a lot more ahead with Larry King, with "AC 360."
"LARRY KING LIVE" coming right up after this. Stay with us for a lot more tonight. We'll see you tomorrow.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
