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Early Start with John Berman and Zoraida Sambolin

Republicans Wins Control of Senate; Polls Still Open in Alaska; Louisiana Senate Race Headed to Runoff; Republican Purdue Takes Georgia Senate; Voters Not Hopeful for 2016

Aired November 05, 2014 - 03:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: All right. The breaking news this morning. Republicans will be in control of the U.S. Senate, pulling off major victories, including some upsets, extending their lead in the House of Representatives, adding to their tally of governorships across the country.

This morning we will show you the new makeup of Congress and how it will dramatically affect President Obama's last two years in office.

EARLY START's special election coverage starts right now.

Welcome back to EARLY START, everyone. I'm John Berman.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning. I'm Christine Romans.

Twenty-nine minutes past the hour this morning. Major breaking news. Republicans have taken control of the United States Senate in a tidal wave.

BERMAN: Yes. It was a night that many people had forecast would be filled with close contests. A lot of them really not as close as we thought they were going to be. It was really a wave for Republicans, in some cases a big wave. They picked up more than the six seats they needed to take control of the Senate.

Now races remain unsettled in Alaska and Louisiana, which will go to a runoff. But as things stand now, Republicans will hold at least 52 seats in the Senate, picking up seven over the current Congress. Democrats will hold 45 seats.

I want to begin with the Republican pickups. West Virginia has its first female U.S. senator. Republican Shelley Moore Capito, defeating Democrat Natalie Tennant. She will take the seat of retiring Democratic Senator Jay Rockefeller. Capito's victory marks the first time in 56 years that West Virginia has elected a Republican senator.

Another key pickup for Republicans. South Dakota, former Governor Mike Rounds easily defeated Democrat Rick Weiland and independent Larry Pressler to win the Senate seat being vacated by retiring Democrat Tim Johnson.

Montana, Republican Steve Daines easily defeated Democrat Amanda Curtis to win the Senate sear surrendered by Max Baucus who is now the U.S. ambassador to China. Democrats really all but conceded this race after their original candidate John Walsh withdrew over revelations that he plagiarized parts of his Master's thesis.

Republicans picking up another seat in Arkansas, and I got to say the margin here was big. The Republican Tom Cotton, a young, young man in his late 30s, defeating Democratic incumbent Mark Pryor. Pryor had tried running away from President Obama, whose approval rating among Arkansas voters was just 34 percent.

History made in Iowa. The Republican Joni Ernst picking up the seat being vacated by retiring Democrat John Harkin. Ernst is the state's first female senator, the first representative they sent to Washington at all. They've never elected a women as governor either. This was an easier expected -- easier than expected win over Democrat Bruce Braley after a long battle. A lot of money spent. Candidate spending nearly $80 million between them on campaign ads.

ROMANS: And she's in a very crowded primary and she really came out as a clear winner and then won against Bruce Braley.

BERMAN: Yet hogs as big losers.

ROMANS: Yes. Yes. Yes.

BERMAN: Joni Ernst is the big winner.

ROMANS: All right.

In Colorado, a surprisingly easy win for Republican Cory Gardner, unseating Democrat -- incumbent Democrat Mark Udall. This one was supposed to be neck-and-neck. Udall, the first Colorado Senate incumbent to be voted out of office in years.

North Carolina clinched it for Republicans Thom Tillis, defeated incumbent Democratic Senator Kay Hagan, finally giving the GOP control of the Senate. In Kansas one of the most hotly contested Senate races in the country but in the end, Republican Senator Pat Roberts won reelection, defeating self-funded independent challenger Greg Orman.

A nail biter too close to call this morning in Virginia. Democratic Senator Mark Warner is claiming victory but Republican challenger Ed Gillespie has not conceded that race yet. That Senate race yet.

In New Hampshire, CNN has projected that Democrat Jeanne Shaheen will hold on to her Senate seat. Her Republican challenger Scott Brown finally conceding after an initial delay. And Mitch McConnell cruising to reelection in Kentucky. McConnell defeated Democrat Alison Lundergan Grimes to win a sixth term in the U.S. Senate.

With Republicans taking control of the Senate, McConnell expected to become the next majority leader -- John.

BERMAN: So there are two more Senate races where the outcome is still not known this morning. In Louisiana, neither Senator Mary Landrieu or any of her opponents got above the 50 percent threshold required to win that seat outright. This means that there will be a runoff on December 6th.

And in Alaska, the polls didn't really even close, all until 1:00 a.m. Eastern Time. And they are still counting at this hour.

So we want to start in Anchorage where CNN's Drew Griffin is standing by live.

Good morning, Drew. What's the latest up there?

DREW GRIFFIN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Seventy percent in, in that Senate race, and the Republican challenger to Democrat Mark Begich is leading. Dan Sullivan over Mark Begich, 50 to 44 percent. That's been pretty steady.

You may ask why this race hasn't been called. The politicians say here voting counting is quirky. You don't know where it's coming in from. So they wait and wait and wait before they call this election.

But John, you know, given the tone of the evening, what's happened nationally, the fact that Alaska really is a red state, and quite frankly, the ground game I've seen here in Alaska over the next -- over the last couple of day, you really got to believe that this is going to be another win and another takeover for the Republican Party.

But we wait. They're still counting the votes. Many of those votes have to be counted by hand. In fact, 137 precincts, they actually count by hand, and then phone it in.

And you hear the party behind me, John?

(CHEERS)

This is one of the fun things about covering elections in Alaska. This is the campaign headquarters for nobody in particular. This is just where they all come to a convention center. And they parade in here one at a time, the candidates from all the way from the Senate to the governor to even local state representative races and propositions. They just come in here. They have a little party and they party on out until these votes are counted.

BERMAN: Well --

GRIFFIN: Right now we are just waiting and waiting for these final votes to be counted.

BERMAN: It sounds like a blast to be there, Drew. As you say it would be shocking given the wave around the country right now if that race does not go to the Republicans.

Drew Griffin in Alaska.

Let's turn now to Louisiana. The winner of the Senate race there will not be known for weeks. Why, because neither the incumbent Democrat Mary Landrieu nor her main Republican challenger Bill Cassidy got the 50 percent of the vote they needed to win outright. So that race will now go to a two-candidate runoff.

CNN's Suzanne Malveaux live in New Orleans.

Good early morning to you, Suzanne.

SUZANNE MALVEAUX, CNN NATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, John. They stopped partying a little while ago. But of course, you know, they call this the jungle primary. And it's going to be a wild ride we think in the next 32 days leading to that runoff.

There was no clear winner as you had said before. We saw Senator Landrieu getting 42 percent. Congressman Bill Cassidy 41 percent. And the Tea Party candidate, Colonel Maness 14 percent. So there was a bit of a disappointment here for Senator Landrieu who earlier in the day had told me that she was confident, that there was energy and excitement around her campaign. That she'd get to that number, that magic number of 50 plus one. But it didn't happen.

It did not take long for her to come out with her family on stage and really directly go after Congressman Cassidy on a number of issues. She challenged him to six debates, no less than six debates before the runoff election and she also made it very clear. She said this is not going to be a race about the president, who he was, who he is, or who he will be. This is going about Cassidy's record in Louisiana.

Now Cassidy came out, and he was pretty confident himself, saying look, 60 percent of those who voted in Louisiana voted for change. So he feels very strong going into this over the next 32 days. And he also did exactly what Landrieu didn't want him to do, which was again to link Senator Landrieu to the president, President Obama, saying that she's voted with him 97 percent of the time. We've heard that before. We anticipate we're going to hear a lot more of that again.

But the people that I talked to on Landrieu's side she has been through this before. This is not her first rodeo. Back in '96, she survived a runoff and won. 2002 the same. 2008, didn't have to have a runoff to actually win. Now 2014, she is back in this position. They feel that they can somehow try to grab those moderates, even maybe some Republicans to try to help her out.

But Cassidy is pretty confident that he has got some of those Tea Party votes that are going to go to his side. We're just going to have to wait and see, 32 days away -- John.

BERMAN: It will be a fascinating 32 days especially fascinating to see how many 2016 potential presidential candidates from both sides find their way in Louisiana.

Suzanne Malveaux, great to see you this morning. Thanks so much -- Christine.

ROMANS: John, in the House of Representatives Republicans were able to strengthen their hand once again. A few races do remain undecided this morning. But at the moment, Republicans will have at least 239 seats in the House when the new Congress sits in January. That's a minimum of five more than the 234 they hold at the moment. Democrats have at least 172.

That will almost certainly strengthen their hand against President Obama. But whether it will change partisan gridlock is hard to predict.

I want to bring in CNN political analysis team. We've got John Avlon, editor in chief of "The Daily Beast," Republican political consultant Margaret Hoover, Errol Louis, political anchor at New York One and Sally Kohn, progressive columnist for "The Daily Beast."

I want to listen to something that Rand Paul said last night. Rand Paul talking less about these races and more about Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. RAND PAUL (R), KENTUCKY: We're all smiles. Big victory here in Kentucky. And I think in Kentucky it's really a repudiation of the president's policies. But also Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton was very active in Kentucky. And the interesting thing is Miss Grimes decided she was going to run as a Clinton Democrat. She wouldn't admit who she voted for president, but she was a Clinton Democrat. But I think we soundly rejected that in Kentucky. Also in Arkansas.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROMANS: I'm seeing foreshadowing to 2016 here. Also they've got a Facebook page called #Hillary'slosers with photos of Hillary Clinton, everyone that she was campaigning for who lost last night. is this 2016?

MARGARET HOOVER, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: It took about two minutes after the results were in for us to pivot to 2016, huh? Look --

ROMANS: I didn't pivot.

JOHN AVLON, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Rand Paul did.

HOOVER: Everybody pivot. That's where we go next.

SALLY KOHN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: I'm ready to pivot.

HOOVER: Now we have the Republicans --

(CROSSTALK)

ROMANS: I'd like to -- I want to talk about last night, I'd like to, you know, decode last night. But already you're talking about --

HOOVER: But already we knew Rand Paul was running in 2016. So there is his perfect scenario.

ROMANS: #Hillary'slosers.

AVLON: Yes. I mean, that -- look, that's one gauge. You know, you go by and see if you'd put your skin in the game, how the turnout go. But the fact that Rand Paul is playing that card right now, it's a bit of bear baiting, I mean, let's be real because, you know, Kentucky is about a lot of things. And also rejection of Obamacare was not actually a theme. We saw last

night a lot of the Republicans who won big and governors actually expanded Medicaid. But, you know, yes, I hate to say this, folks, but '16 begins today.

ERROL LOUIS, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: It is fair to say. I mean, look, if all of these people had won, we'd be talking about how Hillary is building this team.

ROMANS: Right.

LOUIS: And it portends the future. But somebody else actually took a knock as well if you want to talk about 2016. Martin O'Malley's lieutenant governor in Maryland, Anthony Brown, my college classmate.

AVLON: Yes.

KOHN: Right.

ROMANS: Really?

LOUIS: We were also recruiting for.

AVLON: Oh, man.

LOUIS: He lost. And that doesn't bode well for Martin.

ROMANS: Let me ask you about the risk here. There is a risk for the Republicans. Now they have this majority. They have to decide what kind of party they're going to lead. How they're going to lead, what they're going to get done. If they can't compromise, lead, and get something done that appeals to the American people, 2016 could be risky for them.

KOHN: This is exactly why Rand Paul, right out of the gate, is saying OK, we're going to go from the party that's against Obama to where the party that's now against Hillary, and skip over the part where you have to actually be the party that's for something.

Look, now that the Republicans are in control of both Houses of Congress, they can't just be the party of no anymore. They have to do things or the American people are really going to see how they have no solutions to the problems that are facing us.

ROMANS: John.

AVLON: But that requires working with the president. That requires not simply sending things to his desk you know he is going to veto. That requires a totally different shift when it comes to the GOP base and what they expect from their elected representatives.

If the GOP can show it can govern, if it can compromise with the president and vice versa, we could have a break of the gridlock. That's what Mitch McConnell promised. But the last six years show very little reason to believe that.

HOOVER: It does, yes.

KOHN: But Mitch McConnell also said one of his top priorities will be a 20-week ban on abortion.

AVLON: Sally, I hear you.

KOHN: Right? He said he'd -- rhetorically this is what Republicans did in the midterms. They ran rhetorically like they were centrists. But then every time on policy after policy --

AVLON: Yes.

KOHN: -- they said we're still going to stick to the Tea Party issues, the extremist issues.

HOOVER: You know I --

KOHN: And it's not going the fly in 2016.

HOOVER: You're right. It isn't going to fly in 2016. And don't you think they know that? I mean, Mitch McConnell has been thinking about being majority leader for a very long time.

ROMANS: Right.

HOOVER: And Republicans know that this is our opportunity to set the table for 2016. Whatever they do in the Senate is going to set the table for the people who are going to end up challenging the president the next Democratic nominee for president.

AVLON: Because they're all senators.

ROMANS: Going back to Rand Paul, finishing up where we started. Rand Paul is the one who said that the GOP had a pretty, you know, crappy brand. It looks like that brand actually resonated last night, doesn't it? He said that they had bad brand in the GOP.

HOOVER: You know what, I -- I wouldn't go so far. Truly, as a Republican who would like to see the brand regenerated, I don't think it was the brand that did so well. I think last night was truly a vote against a very unpopular president.

AVLON: One thing CNN --

ROMANS: Last quick point.

AVLON: CNN exit polls did show that as unpopular as the president was, people turned out yesterday Republicans in Congress were less popular.

HOOVER: Yes. Right. That's right.

AVLON: So that's a larger issue that Congress is going to have to deal with.

ROMANS: Yes. But we'll talk more about those exit polls as we go forward -- John.

BERMAN: Yes. It's not just about Congress, not just about the Senate. The Republican Party also sweeping most, most of the competitive contests for governor across the country.

We're still holding off projecting winners in a few races. But as of now, Republicans taking over the governor's office in four states while the Democrats only pickup this morning is in Pennsylvania.

In Illinois, Republican Bruce Rauner defeated incumbent governor Pat Quinn. That is according to a CNN projection. You also know that President Obama is from Illinois. A big upset in heavily Democratic Maryland with Republican businessman Larry Hogan winning the governor's race there. He defeated Democrat Anthony Brown, the state's lieutenant governor. This is one of the very few states that Barack Obama campaigned in.

Another deep blue state for the Democrats going down, Massachusetts. Republican Charlie Baker won the governor's race there over Democrat Martha Coakley. Remember she lost to Scott Brown a few years ago. Lost again tonight. This comes after eight years of Democratic rule in Massachusetts under Governor Deval Patrick.

A new Republican governor in Arkansas. Former Homeland Security official Asa Hutchinson defeating Democrat Mike Ross, giving the Republicans control of the state's top office after eight years in the hands of Democrats there.

The Republicans also taking some other tight races where Democrats were given decent odds to win. In Florida, they reelected Republican Rick Scott to a second term, delivering a setback to new Democrat Charlie Crist. Scott pumped nearly $13 million of his own -- own money into his campaign in the final days. He becomes just the second Republican governor in Florida history to win reelection.

In Wisconsin, Republican Scott Walker easily won reelection to a second term by double-digits over Democrat Mary Burke. This victory is big for Scott Walker. Why? Well, he is in the mix of possible presidential candidate in 2016. Walker angered a lot of more liberal voters and had to face a recall election in 2012 after he ended collective bargaining rights for the state's public employs.

Republicans held on to the state House in Georgia. Voters game incumbent Governor Nathan Deal four more years. He defeated the Democratic challenger Jason Carter, the grandson of former president Jimmy Carter.

In Arizona, Republicans maintain control there with Doug Ducey defeating the Democrat Fred Duval in the governor's race. He will replace Jan Brewer who decided to retire rather than challenge the state's term limit law. Ducey best known for building the Cold Stone Creamery ice cream chain -- that's an important accomplishment -- before selling the company in 2007 and getting into politics.

Democrats have only one pickup in their column this morning as far as governorships go. Businessman Tom Wolf, the new governor of Pennsylvania. The Democrat defeated the Republican incumbent Tom Corbett in his bid for reelection. This is the first time a Pennsylvania governor has ever lost in a race for reelection -- Christine.

ROMANS: Wow, what a night. All right, John, thanks.

We continue to follow this breaking news. Big night for Republicans. A tidal wave, capturing a majority in the U.S. Senate races, predicting to be nail-biters, becoming landslides instead.

What does this mean for Democrats and the 2016 presidential election?

Some voters already expressing who they want to run for the White House. We're breaking it all down, right after the break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROMANS: All right. In Georgia, many forecasters thought that Senate race could go -- very well go to a runoff. Instead, the Republican Dave Perdue beat Democrat Michelle Nunn by some eight points.

Life now from CNN center in Atlanta, CNN's Nick Valencia.

This was one of those races people thought could be really hard to determine, and it wasn't.

NICK VALENCIA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Christine, this was supposed to be the race that helped Democrats hold on to the Senate, or at least gave them a chance. A likely scenario in this was that it was going to go to a runoff because it was just going to be impossible for any candidate in this, especially with a libertarian running, taking away votes from David Perdue, that anyone would get 50 percent plus one vote to avoid that January 6th runoff.

In the end it didn't work out like that. A couple of hours after the polls closed at 7:00 p.m. Eastern in Georgia, it became very clear from the trends in these votes starting to come in as those ballots started to get tallied that Perdue was going to pull away with this one. And that's exactly what he did.

Nunn was upbeat in her concession speech. She said that she showed the Democrats could be competitive in a red state like Georgia.

For Perdue's part, though, he said that this was a vote against President Barack Obama, that voters were simply unsatisfied with his presidency. And in the end, he won decisively -- Christine.

ROMANS: All right. Nick Valencia, thanks for that from CNN center in Atlanta.

Disgust and discontent are the two prevailing sentiments expressed by voters in these midterm elections. The exit polls are just very clear. The Republican juggernaut a clear rebuke of the Obama administration. When it comes to possible candidates for president in 2016, the exit polls suggest voters don't see any reason for optimism.

Let's bring in Tom Foreman live from Washington.

Good morning, Tom.

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Good morning, Christine. How are you?

Well, I'll tell you something, the Democrats had no trouble at all plotting their course forward in terms of the presidency. They want to turn to the person that they almost selected last time.

Look at this, in Iowa, our exit polls found that 66 percent of the people who voted said yes, they want Hillary Clinton to be their candidate. Go over to New Hampshire, 64 percent want her to be the candidate. If you move over to South Carolina, 68 percent want her to be the candidate. That's overwhelming. Nobody even close. Look at Elizabeth Warren down here, 5 percent. Joe Biden, 16 percent.

Other 11 percent. Hillary Clinton is the only game in town, Christine, when it comes to the Democrats. But look at the Republicans over here. That's a different ball of wax. Republicans, their preference in our exit polls in Iowa, look at this. 15 percent for Jeb Bush. 12 percent for Chris Christie. Mike Huckabee, 19 percent. Rand Paul, 14 percent.

They're all over the map here. Big number down here to pay attention to, though. Republicans for other, 23 percent. Move it over to New Hampshire. Same thing. Look. It's all over the map. Republicans for Jeb Bush, 22 percent. Here is Rand Paul, with 21 percent. Republicans for other, 29 percent.

And if you go over here to South Carolina, same thing. Republicans for Bush, 18 percent. These numbers don't make any sense because they're just all over the map, except for that one. Other. 28 percent. So the Republicans are not at all agreed yet on what they want to do with their candidate. The Democrats are quite agreed on theirs. But this may be something that may give everyone pause out there.

Take a look at the nationwide most likely. If people are going to vote based on exit polls, 34 percent would say they would back Hillary Clinton, 40 percent would say they would back the Republican. But here is something important to bear in mind about this number. This was an election where the Republicans did very, very well.

ROMANS: Right.

FOREMAN: One of the reasons they did very well is because Republican voters and people who lean Republican showed up in big numbers all over the place. So they're going to skew that number a little bit. But still, you can bet that the people on both sides who are handicapping this presidential race will be looking carefully at this and saying if the Democrats go with Hillary Clinton, will she really be a winner or just what the Democrats want? And those can be two different things.

ROMANS: Wow. FOREMAN: So a lot, a lot, a lot of data coming out of this which will

absolutely play in 2016, Christine.

ROMANS: Absolutely. Tom Foreman in decoding that data. It's so, so interesting. You can tell us so much about who voted and what they thought about things. John has got more on that -- John.

BERMAN: Well, Tom touched on one of the big stories of this election, which is just who voted. I want to look at this right now. This so- called gender gap. This was the split. 51 percent of the people who voted were women, 49 percent were men. Remember this number. I want you to look back at 2012. It was 53 percent female, 47 percent male. So a bigger gender gap in a presidential year. But a more important number might be this one.

Of the women who voted two years ago, it split 55 percent to 44 percent for President Obama, an 11-point margin for the Democrats there, remember that number. Let's look at what it was today, 52 percent to 47 percent. The Democrats only enjoying a five-point boost right there.

Another thing that is fascinating. Let's talk about race here, shall we? 75 percent of the vote this Election Day was white, 12 percent African-American. Latino, 8 percent.

Let's look at Latino compared to two years ago. Two years ago, Latino was 10 percent. So a greater proportion of the vote two years ago was Latino. Not just that, though. Look at this. Two years ago, President Obama won. The math is almost hard to do here. He won by 44 percent two years ago. Remember that.

Let's look at how Latinos voted last night. You look at that 8 percent of the vote right there. The margin much, much smaller. 28 percent. 28 percent this time compared to 44 percent last time.

Finally, let's look at the age breakdown. I want to look at two areas right here. Look up top. People younger than 29, 13 percent of the vote, 22 percent older. Much older electorate than we saw two years ago. Two years ago, only 16 percent of the electorate was over 65. And 19 percent was younger than 30. The younger voters tend to vote much more Democratic and went for Barack Obama last time. They did not show up in the numbers that we saw for Democrats overnight -- Christine.

ROMANS: You're absolutely right. All right. John, thank you so much.

We're continuing to follow this breaking election news this morning. A big night for Republicans. A tidal wave that we're breaking down with all the big upsets, all the exit polling when EARLY START continues next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)