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Early Start with John Berman and Zoraida Sambolin

New National Poll Puts Trump At 41 Percent; What To Watch For In Tonight's Debate; Early State Voting Preview; Kerry In Moscow To Meet With Putin; Obama Challenges Middle East Allies. Aired 5:30-6a ET

Aired December 15, 2015 - 05:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[05:30:00] JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: The last debate of 2015, the first debate since the attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, and national security will be the focus in the room.

Donald Trump, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, Chris Christie, John Kasich, and Rand Paul on the stage for the primetime debate.

Donald Trump is way out in front in the national polls. The CNN poll of polls shows him at 33 percent, Ted Cruz in second place at 17 percent, Marco Rubio in third place.

Some of these national polls have Trump up by more than 20 points including this from Monmouth University, 41 percent for Donald Trump, Ted Cruz at 14 percent. I'm not good at math, but I think that is 27 points behind Donald Trump.

This is one of many things Trump was bragging about here in Las Vegas overnight. CNN's Sara Murray is inside the hall.

SARA MURRAY, CNN POLITICS REPORTER: Good morning, John. Hours before the CNN debate campaigning in Las Vegas last night, Donald Trump approached Ted Cruz with kid gloves. He could not help but mention the Monmouth University poll shows him far ahead leading 41 percent to Ted Cruz's 14 percent.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I heard today when they announced the poll, 41 to 14. I like Cruz. Good guy. I heard. Here is how they announced, Cruz surging. So what I heard is, this was on television, Cruz surging.

I said, I don't know, that sounds bad to me. Coming up, Cruz surging then they say the Monmouth poll was just done, Cruz surging, Trump 41 and Cruz 14. I said, wait a minute. What's going on?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MURRAY: Now even though there have been some sharper elbows between Trump and Cruz lately, you saw that Trump with none of that last night even calling Cruz a good guy. We will see if that carries over to the debate stage. Tonight, though, Donald Trump was not sticking his head in the sand. He said he's fully expected competitors to come after him.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: So we are watching television before we are hearing all of the announcers saying, who will take on Trump tonight? Who will hit him hardest? Yes, I would say bring them on. Who cares? What difference does it make? I would say this will not be an evening in paradise for me. Do we agree?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MURRAY: after a speech that went on for an hour and Trump tried to cast himself toughest on national security, that is how he left it with a crowd of cheering fans. Back to you, John.

BERMAN: That was overnight here in Las Vegas. Sara Murray inside that the loud room. What does it all mean? Joining me now to figure it out is Mark Preston, the executive editor for CNN Politics.

Mark, good morning. I don't know if you got sleep last night. The ABC News/"Washington Post" poll that came out overnight that shows Donald Trump out in front at 38 percent. Ted Cruz in second place at 15 percent, just another one of these new polls.

Monmouth University with Trump at 41, but both the Monmouth poll and the ABC News/"Washington Post" poll taken after Donald Trump announced a ban on Muslims. Trump has seen a bump.

MARK PRESTON, EXECUTIVE EDITOR, CNN POLITICS: John, no matter what he says that is controversial that people think is immoral, that it would kill any other candidate, Donald Trump capitalizes on it. One of the biggest things of Donald Trump, one of the strengths in the campaign is the fact he never has backed down.

If you go back to the summer, John McCain, he said he not a hero because he is a POW. He said strong words about Megyn Kelly. He continued to grow. He is talking about banning all U.S. non-Muslims from coming to the United States. Where is he right now?

BERMAN: It may be because of it, 60 percent of the ABC News/"Washington Post" poll support it. We heard in Sara's piece saying that he does not expect an evening of paradise in the Venetian Theater tonight. Which candidate do you think is most likely to actively, affirmatively go after Donald Trump?

PRESTON: There is no question that we will see Rand Paul. They do not get along. Expect Rand Paul to go after him. Somebody who needs to go after him is Jeb Bush. He was the frontrunner at one point. He had the name and money and politics. He is so far down in the polls. He needs a moment.

BERMAN: It is interesting. Jeb Bush got to Nevada early. He met with the Las Vegas newspaper. He had some strong words for Donald Trump. Let's listen to that. (BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

JEB BUSH (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: He's not a serious person. He's a masterful politician. He, as I described it, uses dog whistle language to divide the country.

[05:35:10]I cannot imagine Donald Trump becoming president because he would never win. He would never win. Hillary Clinton would clean him.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: So, Jeb Bush using stronger language than he used on the debate stage until this moment. Can he bring it? Can he bring it tonight?

PRESTON: Not only did he use stronger language, John, he did not have a lot of emotion. That was Donald Trump's criticism. He said Jeb Bush doesn't have the energy. He is not Donald Trump. He is not a player.

He is not a character, very much focused on policy. Somebody who is more inward than Donald Trump is outward. Jeb Bush, though, needs to show to his donors, to his supporters that he can be able to deliver it tonight here on this stage.

BERMAN: He needed to show that the last three debates. He has not shown it yet. It is interesting to see if tonight the first night that it actually happens. The new story line here, the next door neighbor to Donald Trump on the main stage is Ted Cruz.

He is vaulted into second place in most national polls. In the Iowa, the CNN poll of polls, he is actually running first in Iowa but by two points over Donald Trump.

The big question for Ted Cruz, he said he is giving a bear hug to Donald Trump, you know, playing nice with the Donald. Does he need to draw contrasts?

PRESTON: Listen, keep your friends close. Keep your enemies closer. Ted Cruz has made a calculated decision. If Donald Trump falls off, where does that support go? Ted Cruz thinks that he can take that support.

If Donald Trump goes after Ted Cruz as we have seen, Donald Trump called Ted Cruz a maniac. How do you not address that? Ted Cruz has to show he is able to fight Donald Trump. Where that will happen, John, Trump indicated he will bring it to Ted Cruz. He thinks Ted Cruz is ready to bring to him.

BERMAN: Cruz has responded on Twitter posted a link to "Maniac" from "Flashdance." Marco Rubio, a lot of people in the mainstream saying this is Marco Rubio's race. Long term, you will see Marco Rubio emerge.

He has had strong debate performances, but he hasn't seen the type of bump that we have seen from Ted Cruz or Ben Carson or Carly Fiorina. He hasn't had the spotlight surge.

PRESTON: No, but if you talk to his campaign, they want to be the tortoise. They try to bring the structure in key states. They thought their biggest problem would be Jeb Bush. That is not the biggest problem. That is not the biggest problem.

The question is can Marco Rubio get enough momentum to come out of Iowa because we don't think he will win it. What can he do in South Carolina and Nevada?

BERMAN: I got to say Ted Cruz/Rubio, Chris Christie/Rubio, Rand Paul/Rubio, there could be some sparks there. Those four guys going after each other could be the drama. Mark Preston, I'm excited to share this with you.

PRESTON: Thanks, John.

BERMAN: The action begins here at 6:00 p.m. Eastern inside the Venetian Theater. That is the undercard debate, four candidates in front of 1,400 people at 8:30 p.m. Eastern, the primetime debate, the main stage debate, Donald Trump front and center. Ted Cruz next to him for the first time. What will happen? You will not to miss it.

This could be the most important debate for the Republicans, the last debate in 2015. The first debates since the attacks in San Bernardino and Paris. We will break down what the debate means for the key early voting states, Iowa, New Hampshire. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[05:43:18]

BERMAN: We are inside the Venetian Theater in Las Vegas. This is the site of the final Republican debate of 2015 only here on CNN. There will be some 1,400 people in the hall. Nine people on the stage for the primetime debate, nine candidates. Donald Trump will be front and center.

He has a new next door neighbor on the stage. Ted Cruz was vaulted in second place nationally. First place in Iowa polling, Iowa, of course, the first voting state on February 1st. What happens after that? Let me tell you. It is important. CNN's Tom Foreman has a look.

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Let's look at the early states. They go off in February and they're votes are divided proportionately based on the performance of the candidates. Iowa is first. There we have been talking about it. Trump and Cruz are virtually tied. They would split those 27 delegates almost evenly if the vote happened today.

In New Hampshire, Trump has a bigger lead, but now look who is in second, it's Chris Christie and Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz. Bring it down to South Carolina where you have 50 delegates in play. There, Trump has a big lead, but now it is Ben Carson, Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio. Here in Nevada, another equation all together, it is Donald Trump out front, second place is Ben Carson. You can see the challenge in the debate. These candidates for that first rush have to not only try to knock Donald Trump down.

But if they can't do that, somebody needs to emerge as a strong second contender or the race could be over pretty fast because once you get passed that first rush in February, look at March. Now you have 13 states in one day with hundreds of delegates in play.

[05:45:10]We don't have great polling out here to know how the candidates are all doing. But we do know in many states, Donald Trump's agenda plays well. That's why this debate matter so very much.

It is the last face-to-face chance the candidates have to stop his momentum if they want to keep this race alive and not have it over really fast.

BERMAN: Thanks to Tom Foreman for that. Christine, it is so interesting because on this stage, the different candidates are playing to different audiences. Ted Cruz will speak to the voters in Iowa. Chris Christie, really speaking to voters in New Hampshire. The other seven, a combination.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN ANCHOR: The question is who can make America the safest, who can lead America through the challenges of terrorism and ISIS inspired attacks and all of these new found worries after San Bernardino and Paris. Who, I guess, has the most to prove on the front do you think, John?

BERMAN: Well, Ben Carson says, admits he has a lot to prove. He says he is on a learning curve when it comes of foreign policy. He has dropped in the polls a lot over the last six weeks since the attacks in Paris and San Bernardino, when the focus of the campaign shifted to national security, terrorism now the number one concern among Republican primary voters not the economy. That's the first time we have seen that.

Ben Carson has admitted that is not his strongest point. The problem for Ben Carson is that his posture in debates up until has been to sit back. He doesn't try to get in the mix. So how does he prove he is stronger on national security than we have seen up to now?

ROMANS: John, we know you are watching it for us as we countdown 12 hours until the debate. Polls also show Republicans are anxious about the economy. Who will manage it better, Donald Trump or Ted Cruz?

Here's the score from the Tax Foundation think tank which favors that low taxes. On job creation, Trump has the edge. The Tax Foundation sees 5.3 million jobs in the next decade. Cruz with 4.9 million jobs added.

Cruz wins on taxes and here's why. Cruz has the simplest plan in the GOP field. He would scrap the seven brackets and kill the corporate income tax and switch to a 16 percent value added tax. Trump would move to three tax brackets and reduce the corporate tax rate to 15 percent. Tax Foundation says Cruz's plan is one of the best for boosting growth. It doesn't add to the deficit as much as Trump.

Almost all of the plans add to the deficit. There is a lot of promises on the tax side and assumptions of huge economic growth.

If you have a hoverboard on your shopping list, listen up. The danger associated with this year's big item next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[05:51:58]

ROMANS: Secretary of State John Kerry in Moscow trying to reach agreement on a plan to end the civil war in Syria. Kerry is sitting down with Sergei Lavrov and shaking hands this morning. He meets with President Putin in five hours.

The situation in Syria not the only item on Kerry's agenda, Russia's military incursion in Ukraine is an item for him to discuss as well. Let's bring in CNN's Jill Dougherty of the International Center for Defense and Security. Any common ground there, Jill?

JILL DOUGHERTY, RESEARCHER, INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR DEFENSE AND SECURITY: ISIS is an issue for one, but the other is the details of the political transition that both sides of the United States and Russia are trying to work toward. There will be a big meeting in New York on Friday to that purpose.

So, right now, Secretary Kerry has met with Sergei Lavrov, his counterpart, and then he will go to the kremlin where he will meet with President Putin. That's where the United States certainly hopes to get a lot more clarity on precisely where President Putin thinks this is all going.

One of the key issues of course is the fate of Syrian President Assad and the definition of who is a terrorist and who is not. There has been a lot of debate back and forth about that.

The Russians initially calling everybody but is, let's say ISIS is a terrorist organization, but a lot of the other groups, terrorists. Now it is more fine-tuned. Now they are saying elements of the Free Syrian Army are some that they may work with and they are supporting with airstrikes.

There is a lot of fluidity about this. We will in a few hours have the meeting with President Putin and that should be crucial and interesting.

ROMANS: It sure will. Thank you so much, Jill. We know you will watch it for us.

President Obama calling on America's allies in the Middle East to do more in the war on ISIS. White House insiders say the president is growing frustrated with countries like Saudi Arabia. He wants the Saudis to form an Arab coalition of ground forces to fight terrorists in Syria and Iraq.

We get more from CNN's senior White House correspondent, Jim Acosta -- Jim.

JIM ACOSTA, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: John and Christine, with the public growing anxious about the plan to destroy ISIS, President Obama stopped by the Pentagon where he offered up a commander-in-chief image with some war time rhetoric to match.

The president met with every member of the national security team for a deep dive into the military campaign to defeat ISIS. So far, Mr. Obama said the U.S.-led coalition has delivered 9,000 airstrikes against ISIS targeting its oil infrastructure and forcing the terror army to give up 40 percent of its territory.

While the president acknowledged progress is not coming fast enough. He sharpened his message on ISIS warning leaders of the group they will be destroyed. Here's what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA: We are hitting ISIL harder than ever. The point is ISIL leaders cannot hide and our next message to them is simple you are next.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[05:55:03]ACOSTA: Another part of the White House approach is tolerance. Something the senior advisers breached on the conference call with Muslim and other religious leaders in response to Donald Trump who blasted the president for not condemning radical Islamic extremists.

The president will stay on that theme of tolerance when he attends a ceremony to naturalize new U.S. citizens here in Washington later today and he will return to the sales pitch on ISIS later in the week when he visits the nation's counter terrorism center on Thursday -- John and Christine.

ROMANS: All right, Jim Acosta at the White House, thanks, Jim.

A Maryland man arrested by the FBI for allegedly taking thousands of dollars from ISIS operatives overseas to fund a terror attack here in the U.S.

Authorities say 30-year-old Muhammad Al-Shinawi received $8,700 from terrorist backers. He was arrested Friday after a five-month FBI surveillance operation. Agents say they uncovered no specific plans for an attack by the suspect, but they consider the case significant because of his terror contacts.

New details about critical clues missed by law enforcement in the case of the San Bernardino shooter, Tashfeen Malik, authorities say Malik sent at least two private Facebook messages to friends in Pakistan in 2012 and 2014 expressing support for Islamic jihad.

She told them she hoped to join the fight one day as jihadist. On the day of the San Bernardino massacre, Malik and her husband declared allegiance to ISIS on Facebook. A review of the visa program is underway.

Let's get an EARLY START on your money this morning. It's 56 minutes past hour. Three big stories in the markets today, the big show later this morning, Janet Yellen and fed officials sit down for a two-day meeting widely expected to finish with an interest rate hike, the first in a decade.

In credit market, the debate raging right now whether a crisis in junk bonds will spread and the third big story this morning, oil is in a bear market close to levels not seen since the financial crisis.

What's causing that drop, the supply boom and weakening demand and a surge in Iranian oil production, an uptick in oil prices can actually help stocks. We will see what happens today.

Rising interest rates won't stop home buyers according to a new survey from Zillow, 70 percent of those looking to buy a house would not change their plans if mortgage rates rise to 4.5 percent. Historically low.

About half would look for a smaller home or a less expensive option. Zillow finds in several markets the increase on mortgage payments is $25 or less a month. Next year say good year for home buyers, rates still rising but low, more inventory and fewer bidding wars and newer homes on the market.

Are hoverboards on your Christmas list? Amazon stopped selling most hoverboard models after reports of them catching on fire. Amazon wants sellers to state they are up to date on the state standards. The airlines won't let you put one on a plane. If you are brave enough to buy one, eBay, Walmart and Toys R Us still selling certain models.

We are hours way from the CNN Republican debate. "NEW DAY" has it from here.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: It's been a little over a month since the last Republican debate, but so much has changed.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: What a nice problem to have if it came down to Cruz and Trump.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Donald Trump has had the impact of making Ted Cruz mainstream.

BERMAN: Donald Trump breaks 40 percent in a national poll.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: His biggest nationwide lead ever.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Will this tightening in Iowa inspire him to go after Ted Cruz?

TRUMP: The other candidates should be thankful. I'm giving them a chance to make total fools.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: One of the two killers in San Bernardino was an American citizen.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: National security is the focus of the debate.

UNIDENTIFIED MALE: People are looking for strength. Trump is playing that role.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: He tapped into the compassion of the American conservative.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR: All right. Here we are. You are coming down the famous canals that are Venice-esque in Vegas. Good morning. Welcome to your NEW DAY. It is Tuesday, December 15th, 6:00 in the east. Mich back in New York. Alisyn and I coming to you from inside the Venetian in Las Vegas.

Two big headlines, we are hours away from the Republican debate. We have significant developments. First, Camerota had to be pulled out of a casino this morning.

ALISYN CAMEROTA, CNN ANCHOR: Penny slots.

CUOMO: She has her hair in the hands of two people next to her. And also big developments in the polls, comments about Muslims, wait for it, helping Donald Trump.

CAMEROTA: So there are two new national polls to look at this morning and they show Donald Trump hitting a new ceiling. He continually breaks through whatever ceiling he had and he's done it again. He's now at 41 percent.