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Early Start with John Berman and Zoraida Sambolin

Iran Holding 10 American Sailors; Obama Delivers His Final State of the Union Address; National Poll: Democratic Race Tightens. Aired 4:30-5a ET

Aired January 13, 2016 - 04:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[04:31:45] JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Breaking news this morning, new developments by the minute out of Iran where ten U.S. sailors are being held. Iran seized two U.S. vessels. We have new developments on if and when these sailors will be released.

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN ANCHOR: President Obama delivering his last State of the Union Address. What he says his administration has accomplished and what still needs to be done.

Welcome back to EARLY START. I'm Christine Romans.

BERMAN: I'm John Berman. Nice to see you at 32 minutes past the hour right now.

And we do have breaking news this morning. Iran demanding an apology from the United States after the Iranian Revolutionary Guard captured ten American sailors in Iranian territory waters. At least that's what the Iranians say.

We know for sure is Iran is still holding the sailors. Nine men, one woman, on Farsi Island. You see it right there, right in the middle of the Persian Gulf.

The latest word this morning from Iranian media is that the U.S. sailors are likely to be released soon -- likely to be released soon. Again, we are getting so many mixed messages from that country right now.

I want to bring in international diplomatic editor Nic Robertson, watching the situation for us.

Nic, on the one hand, we hear Iran wants an apology. On the other hand, we hear, you know, they acknowledge it was a mistake the vessel veered into the Iranian territorial waters and they should be released soon.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: There continues to be this rollercoaster as you say we've heard from the Revolutionary Guard who are controlling these sailors right now just a few hours ago saying they were interrogated them to find if they were on intelligence mission. Now saying that the navigational equipment was broken, that there wasn't a negative reason why they've strayed into Iranian territorial waters, that they will be released soon, is the expectation on the Iranian side.

Now, we have the last few minutes, an Iranian army commander saying very tough language, and hard to know what to read into it, but saying this will be a lesson for U.S. troublemakers in Congress. This won't be the last time that the United States made some mistakes in the Persian Gulf.

What does that supposed to mean? Again, it's a part of the mixed messaging that's been coming out since these sailors were taken about 24 hours or so ago, the narrative coming from the Revolutionary Guard, the hardliners that control the sailors right now indicates their release could come soon.

The fact that we get statements like this coming from the army commander, a demand for an apology, I think mean that we should not hold our breath, that the release potentially could be soon, but potentially this could spin out over a number more hours, possibly even longer, John.

BERMAN: You know, because, frankly, these sailors could be caught in a power struggle within Iran. The reason we are getting diametrically opposed statements from Iran is there are mixed messengers right now in Iran.

ROBERTSON: Absolutely. Secretary Kerry talked with his opposite number, the foreign minister Javad Zarif after it was learned that the sailors have been taken and talked about resolving it. Zarif has been seen as a moderate here, the Revolutionary Guards who hold the sailors are seen as hardliners here. Both if you will have something to lose if the nuclear deal elements of which is based to be further in the coming days, potentially billions of dollars at stake for Iran here.

[04:35:07] The foreign minister has political capital laid on the line. But, you know, in terms of the internal Arabian dynamics, the Revolutionary Guard that want to emerge from this as being seen very clearly as the ones that control what happens on the ground. But the fact that they seem to be scaling back their language a bit, they do want to get this deal signed.

What it means overall, hard to say. What we can learn in a few days when we look back at this situation, potentially it will be resolved by then, and we can perhaps get a better idea, is it is moderates or the hardliners here who holds sway?

Right now, the cards seem to be certainly the sailors, themselves, in the hands of the hardliners, or the Revolutionary Guards.

BERMAN: Bottom line, can U.S. sailors still in Iranian custody at 4:45 a.m. Eastern Time. We thought they would be released right by now. They have not been. So, stay with us for new developments.

Nic Robertson, thanks so much. ROMANS: All right. Turning now to the State of the Union Address.

President Obama urged Americans to turn away from the fear and tribalism that have dominated the campaign and towards a more welcoming optimistic vision for the country.

Let's bring in senior White House correspondent Jim Acosta. He's got the latest.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JIM ACOSTA, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: John and Christine, in his final State of the Union Address, President Obama called on the nation to reject the politics of the vision the president urged Congress to pass new gun control laws, tackle climate change and close the detention facility at Guantanamo.

He also defended the Obama doctrine of seeking first before unilateral military action, pointing to the normalization of relations with Cuba and the Iran nuclear deal. But there was no mention of Iran, though, Tuesday, who detained ten American sailors.

The president also took aim at the race for the White House and some veiled jabs at Donald Trump. He asked Americans to respect the differences of their fellow citizens including Muslims. Here's what he had to say.

BARACK OBAMA, PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: As frustration grows, there will be voices urging us to fall back into our respective tribes. The scapegoat fellow citizens who don't look like us or pray like us or vote like we do, or share the same backgrounds.

We can't afford to go down that path. It won't deliver the economy we want. It will not produce the security we want. But most of all, it contradicts everything that makes us the envy of the world.

ACOSTA: And in one of the most emotional moments of the speech, the president called for a moon shot mission to cure cancer. It was a tribute to Vice President Biden whose son Beau died from cancer last year -- John and Christine.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BERMAN: All right. Jim Acosta, thank you so much. Let's talk about the address last night. Reaction has been pouring in.

There are some really interesting aspects. I want to bring in our CNN politics reporter Eric Bradner via Skype from Iowa this morning, where there is an election I'm told.

Eric, it's interesting. The address last night happened with ten U.S. sailors in Iranian custody. Yet the president did not mention them at all. What he did talk about vaguely and very quickly with the Iran nuclear deal. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) OBAMA: We built a global coalition with sanctions and principle diplomacy to pre vent a nuclear armed Iran. And as we speak, Iran has rolled back its nuclear program shipped out its uranium stockpile and the world averted another war.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: It's interesting, the president made a choice I choice here, not to talk about the sailors in Iranian custody right now. He is being criticized for that by Republicans this morning.

ERIC BRADNER, CNN POLITICS REPORTER: Yes, he is. You know, some Republicans gave him a little leeway. Marco Rubio, for example, actually said that it's OK if the president didn't address it, because it's a developing situation.

The White House didn't want to risk losing President Obama's message. He had something he clearly wanted to say here. And he knew this was his last opportunity to say it.

So, the White House was really trying to play down the whole situation, leading up to the speech to try to keep it from completely trumping everything the president had to say. But it definitely is interesting that there were several hours leading up to it where the White House certainly could have worked something into the speech but chose not to.

So, interesting decision and with Republicans already looking for reasons to criticize the Iran nuclear deal, it will probably be a talking point from them over the next day or so.

ROMANS: Behind the president's right shoulder, Joe Biden, his vice president, who over the years the president has tapped for I would say big think kind of mission, for example, spending stimulus money, for example, middle class, elevating the middle class, the middle class initiative, the middle class -- you know, middle class issues and now cancer, a new cancer initiative.

[04:40:04] Listen to what the president said.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

OBAMA: Because he's gone to the mat for all of us on so many issues over the past 40 years ago, I'm putting Joe in charge of mission control.

(APPLAUSE)

For the loved ones we've all lost, for the families that we can still save, let's make America the country that cures cancer once and for all.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROMANS: Joe Biden talking to our Gloria Borger earlier this week, said he's talked to more than 200 cancer experts. This is something he really wants to do.

BRADNER: Yes, you know, it was interesting to see that. The only policy proposal wasn't very detail, but it was a policy idea that President Obama put forth that got really, really positive bipartisan reception.

Now, curing cancer is easy for everyone to cheer for. But it was sort of nice to see, you know, as the camera panned out, where John McCain was standing and clapping. A lot of Biden's Republican colleagues from his nearly four decades in the Senate really sort of embraced that moment. Obama didn't layout specifics on how that was going to get done.

But this is clearly a passion from the vice presidency, looking for something to do since he's not running for president in 2016.

BERMAN: You know, it's interesting. You know, there was clear applause when president talked about that. I think that applause was as much for Joe Biden, just to support him for everything he's been through with his son and his family over the last several months. That was nice to see.

Back to politics now. The Republican response, yes, Nikki Haley was critical with President Obama, but, wow, was she really critical not by name but her inference or -- you know, her implication was clear. She was talking about Donald Trump when she talked about angry voices in the Republican Party. Listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

GOV. NIKKI HALEY (R), SOUTH CAROLINA: During anxious times, it can be tempting to follow the siren call of the angriest voices. We must resist that temptation. No one who is willing to work hard abide by our laws and love our traditions should ever feel unwelcome in this country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: When she says resist that temptation, it sounds like she's saying turn away from Donald Trump.

BRADNER: Yes. Absolutely, it does. It's going to get a little awkward when Donald Trump comes to South Carolina Thursday night for the Republican debate, shows up as the Republican front runner in that state where the Republican governor has just denounced him on national television.

Nikki Haley's comments got a really negative reaction on social media from a lot of far right conservative figures, who really saw her as sort of spitting in the face of an energized populist sort of uprising in the party. But a lot of establishment Republicans will love what she said and it's worth keeping your mind that she was invited by the Republican House speaker and Senate majority leader.

So, you know, it was a fascinating moment to hear Nikki Haley's rhetoric sort of matching President Obama's in making this very thinly veiled reference to Donald Trump.

ROMANS: So interesting. So many interesting things last night.

All right. Thanks so much for that, Eric Bradner, in Iowa for us. Stay warm. Thanks for getting up early for us.

All right. More dramatic new developments in the race for president. Hillary Clinton on the attack as polls show Bernie Sander's on the rise. We'll break down those new numbers next.

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[04:47:10] ROMANS: Welcome back.

New this morning: Hillary Clinton is still the front runner in the Democratic presidential race, but her lead is slipping nationally. A CBS News/"New York Times" poll just out shows Clinton seven points ahead of Bernie Sanders. Look at last month. Last month, her lead was 20 points.

At a campaign event in Iowa, Clinton attacked Sanders on numerous fronts and later she told CNN her opponent is short on substance.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Senator Sanders has some very big ideas, but he hasn't yet told anybody how he would pay for them and he has promised that he would roll out his tax plan before the Iowa caucus on February 1st. Well, if you wait too long, nobody will have a chance to see them or analyze them. And so, I am very clear about what I would do and how I would pay for it.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROMANS: Chelsea Clinton made her first solo campaign appearance, stumping for her mother in New Hampshire Tuesday. She is expected to join former President Bill Clinton at a campaign event in Iowa this weekend.

BERMAN: New signs this morning that Donald Trump holds a commanding lead on the Republican side. Trump is at 36 percent in that "New York Times"/CBS poll, up a point since December. Ted Cruz in second, 17 points back.

A little bit of a different story in Iowa, as CNN's Sara Murray reports.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

SARA MURRAY, CNN POLITICS REPORTER: Good morning, Christine and John.

The battle between Ted Cruz and Donald Trump is turning into an all out brawl. Here in Iowa, the two are neck and neck in the polls. Donald Trump told the crowd last night, he's not too thrilled about it. DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: PPP just came out 28 for

Trump, 26 -- by the way, I hate to tell you, Iowa, this is the only place that I'm like doing let's say even. I'm not exactly thrilled. I go to New Hampshire, we have this massive lead. They're all playing for second place, supposedly. I hope that turns out to be right because I don't care who is in second place.

MURRAY: Now, campaigning here in Cedar Falls, Iowa, last night, Trump went after Cruz for his stance on ethanol and once again questioned whether Cruz could even be president because he was born in Canada. Ted Cruz says those attacks are only resonating with Democrats and questioned whether Trump was maybe a little too cozy with Democrats.

SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It starts to make you think, gosh, why are Hillary's strongest supporters backing Donald Trump? You know the past couple of elections, we saw the Democrats thrilled that they got the nominee they wanted to run against in the general election. And it seems the Hillary folks are very eager to support Donald Trump and the attacks that are being tossed in my direction.

MURRAY: And, just yesterday, Cruz really ratcheted up his attacks, not only going after Trump on that citizenship question but also saying Trump embodies New York values and saying, in a head-to-head matchup against Hillary Clinton, Cruz would be far better off than Trump.

Back to you, Christine and John.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROMANS: All right. Sara, thank you.

Time for an early start on your money.

[04:50:01] Stock futures are higher right now. Global marks are mixed. The Dow trying for a third straight day of gain after an awful, terrible, horrific, painful start of the year.

Here's an interesting study to tell you about. College graduates aren't just flipping burgers and making your latte. A new study from the New York Federal Reserve shows 12.6 percent of younger college graduates landed in low skilled, low paying jobs like waiters, cashiers, bartenders, baristas, and if they're in those position they aren't staying very long.

For those 26 and older, the percentage is cut almost in half. But grads aren't finding their dream jobs earlier. Half worked in a job that didn't require a bachelor's degree and only one-third earn more than $52,000 a year.

But that's sort of a recessionary myth of these college grads, you know, only serving you coffee, not true.

BERMAN: They'll serve you all kind of thing it turns out.

ROMANS: Not true.

BERMAN: All right. President Obama delivered his final State of the Union Address. What did the public think? We have a really, really interesting way to gauge viewer reaction. That's next.

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ROMANS: Reaction pouring in this morning to the president's State of the Union Address, candidates, analysts and pundits. But what about the American people?

Let's turn to Tom Foreman in CNN virtual studio to hear where Democrats, Republicans and independents agreed and disagreed with the president.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

TOM FOREMAN, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Christine and John, 125,000 people joined us through Microsoft polls to let us know what they thought of the president's speech moment by moment. We put the Democrats in blue, the independents in purple, the Republicans in red.

And there were several points where they really diverged in their assessment to the president -- one of those areas being when he brought up his nuke deal with Iran. Take a look.

OBAMA: That's why we built a global coalition with sanctions and principle diplomacy to prevent a nuclear-armed Iran.

[04:55:06] And as we speak, Iran has rolled back its nuclear program, ship out its uranium stockpile and the world has avoided another war.

(APPLAUSE)

FOREMAN: Many Republicans did not like that deal all along -- certainly not with the current circumstances with Iran and U.S. service members.

Another area in which there was broad agreement, however, was when the president talked about cutting red tape.

OBAMA: I think there are outdated regulations that need to be changed. There is red tape that needs to be cut. There you go. Yes.

FOREMAN: Hey, so they're all trying to come together there.

That happened several times. But they never quite made it. Look at what happened when he talked about education.

OBAMA: We should recruit and support more great teachers for our kids.

(APPLAUSE)

And we have to make college affordable for every American. FOREMAN: You saw the Republicans sort of jumping off there, as soon

as he talks about affordable college, because it seems like he might have been fighting at that idea that some Democrats are proposing the government is paying for more college.

In the end though, this is what we know. At no point did this order ever change, approval was always high for the Democrats, always the middle for independents, and always lowest for the Republican -- Christine, John.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

BERMAN: All right. Tom, thanks so much.

Suicide bomber who killed at least 10 foreigners in central Istanbul was working for ISIS. That is according to Turkey's prime minister. At least eight of those killed are Germans. Turkish authorities identify the attacker as Nabil Fadli, a Saudi national who recently entered Turkey through Syria. They say he was not on any watch list.

The war on ISIS hitting American taxpayers hard remember. Fighting the terror group has cost Americans $5.5 billion. That comes to roughly $11.2 million a day. The Air Force accounts for 70 percent of that, $3.75 million or about $7.7 million a day since airstrikes began in the summer of 2014.

ROMANS: All right. Let's get an early start on your money this morning.

The Dow on a two-day win streak. Futures are higher. But they've still got a long way to go to make up for those big losses from last week. Global markets mostly higher. You got Shanghai posting a loss overnight.

The start of the year is a time when many analysts offer their predictions. And this year, one dramatic forecast caught our attention. RBS analyst Andrew Roberts wrote this week, quote, "Sell everything but high quality bonds." He also wrote this, "We think investors should be afraid." He said the banks red flags for 2016 have all been seen in just the first week of trading, among them, falling oil, volatility in China, rising corporate debt.

He also said 2008 feels like the market mood feels like 2008. Now, that's just one forecast, but certainly a frightening one.

Also, the president addressed his State of the Union Address the need for more clean energy. Companies are listening. The number of jobs in the solar energy industry has doubled over the past five years. Last year, 209,000 solar employees working in the U.S. Who are those employees? They are panel installers, designers, engineers, sales people, managers, electricians.

That tally is now bigger than the workforce, John, on oil rigs and the gas field. One of the biggest drivers of the growth, tax breaks. Businesses and homeowners are eligible for a tax credit if they install solar panels. That credit has been placed since 2006. Congress recently renewed

that tax credit for another six years.

You may be surprised to know, there are more people working in solar and that it has doubled over the past five years, the employment in solar energy.

BERMAN: It's really interesting. And look, you talk about oil. A lot of these companies are laying off people, a lot of these companies have serious decisions to make with prices down below $3 a barrel, and maybe going even further.

EARLY START continues right now.

(MUSIC)

ROMANS: Breaking news this morning: Iran demanding an apology from the U.S. after seizing ten American sailors who are still in Iranian custody. We are live.

BERMAN: The president delivers his final State of the Union Address. He talked about one of his biggest regrets in interesting terms. He makes clear reference to presidential candidates. How he targets them coming up.

Good morning, everyone. Welcome to EARLY START. I'm John Berman.

ROMANS: And I'm Christine Romans. It is Wednesday, January 13th. It is 5:00 a.m. now in the East.

Our breaking news this morning: Iran is demanding an apology from the U.S. after the Iranian Revolutionary Guard captured ten American sailors in Iranian territorial waters. Now, Iran is still holding those sailors. Nine men, one woman, on Farsi Island in the Persian Gulf .

The latest for this morning from Iranian media is that the sailors are likely to be released soon.

For the latest, let's bring in international diplomatic editor Nic Robertson. He's monitoring the situation for us from London.