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Early Start with John Berman and Zoraida Sambolin
Trump Wins Big in New Hampshire; Big Win for Sanders in New Hampshire; Hillary's Struggles with Young Voters; Marco Rubio Admits Debate's Effect on N.H. Aired 2-3a ET
Aired February 10, 2016 - 02:00 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[02:00:00] JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: Good morning, everyone. Welcome to a special post primary edition of EARLY START. It is 2:00 a.m. in the east. I'm John Berman.
POPPY HARLOW, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Poppy Harlow. So glad you're with us.
BERMAN: Big, big wins for Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders in the New Hampshire primary. You see Bernie Sanders there on the left riding a wave of younger voters and support from independent. He pulled in 60 percent of the vote to 38 percent for Hillary Clinton.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: What began last week in Iowa, what voters here in New Hampshire confirmed tonight is nothing short of the beginning of a political revolution.
(APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BERMAN: And for the Republicans, Donald Trump took 35 percent, winning by 51,000 votes. This is the largest margin of victory for any Republican candidate in a contested primary, at least since 2000.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We are going to make America great again.
(APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARLOW: Ohio Governor John Kasich, dark horse of the establishment candidates, if you will, came in a strong second place. Though, still, far behind Donald Trump, with a pile in his rear-view mirror as Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio fight it out there for third place.
BERMAN: CNN Politics' Jeremy Diamond. He has been all across New Hampshire. He joins us now from Manchester with more on tonight's winners and losers. The winners, they were big winners, Jeremy. JEREMY DIAMOND, CNN POLITICAL REPORTER: Absolutely. I mean, you had Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders both coming out with huge double digit wins over their closest competitors. You know, Donald Trump, tonight, you know, really proving finally that his momentum, that his movement as he calls it, is absolutely 100 percent real. And he now has the votes to show for it.
You know, he spent the whole week kind of reeling from a second place finish in Iowa. And, tonight, coming out with that strong finish was really crucial for him. You know, he's showing that his movement is real. He's showing that he's able to not only have big rallies, have supporters support him in polls, but actually go out and vote and that's a testament to the questions that happened this week over whether or not he had the ground game capacity to get those people out. But he certainly did.
And, of course, John Kasich coming out in second place here tonight. You know, he spent a lot of time in New Hampshire, probably more than most other candidates, especially in recent weeks. You know, just before the Iowa caucuses, he actually skipped out on spending time campaigning in Iowa, instead having the whole state to himself that last weekend, as he campaigned through the state.
So coming out with 16 percent there is really something that's going to help Kasich as he goes forward to try and be that establishment candidate, you know, after Rubio came in third in Iowa. A lot of people thought that he was going to be the man to carry the establishment banner. Now John Kasich challenging that. But the question is what's next for him after New Hampshire. Where can he go now.
HARLOW: And Jeremy, I think the question becomes also how much money can he raise as establishment money move to him a week ago. We were sitting here, talking about establishment money going to Marco Rubio, then the debate happened. Will that money go to Kasich?
I want us all to listen to our Sara Murray. She was just on Kasich's plane as they all boarded and are heading tonight to South Carolina.
Let's listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SARA MURRAY, CNN POLITICS REPORTER: He's pretty festive, but you would expect that suddenly John Kasich who was a big for (INAUDIBLE) deliver us from finishing New Hampshire, or there was going no way out of it. And he's not exactly bouncing off the walls. He told us in the airport as they were boarding the plane that he almost can't describe the feeling right now. It's like he can't quite believe it.
He knew they had a strong ground game. He knew they had been working really hard. And they've got pretty solid as he obtained a second place. It only means it's nice. But he also told us that he's been listening to this 21 Pilot song lately. It's called "Stress Out" and that song has really been resonating with him yesterday. And I think it's a sense of relief that he feels that he is boarding this plane that is full of, you know, his campaign staff and of course heading on to South Carolina.
And, you know, a senior staff informing it's not just South Carolina. They're hunkering down to Boeing Scafford (ph) and volunteers in eight or nine states that are further down the calendar. They want to stay in this for a long time and they feel like over the next couple of months, they could have pick up some delegates along the way. And by the time you get to April 15th, they'll be in a very good position to pickup these delegates in places like Ohio before summer Kasich comes (INAUDIBLE) or Michigan, a neighboring state. So I think what this really does is it sets up a long shove push over the next four to six weeks.
And (INAUDIBLE) the establishment lane that a lot of people sort of thought might have become clearer coming out of New Hampshire.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
[02:05:14] HARLOW: So that's Sara Murray on the Kasich plane.
And, Berman, you had John Kasich on your show today. And you guys asked him whether he was definitely going on to South Carolina. He said he can't guarantee anything, but now he's gone.
BERMAN: He's going. He's going. But look at that, 19 points behind Donald Trump. It is stunning. You know, I think so many times we focus on second, third, fourth, fifth place, but first place here so far away. The clear winner Donald Trump winning among every major category.
HARLOW: Yes.
BERMAN: It's the same thing on the Democratic side, Jeremy. Bernie Sanders out in a way the winner over Hillary Clinton. A state she won in 2008. A state that made Bill Clinton the comeback kid, or he did lose it in 1992. Bernie Sanders wins in New Hampshire, even winning among women in New Hampshire, which is a group that Hillary Clinton certainly needs to win.
HARLOW: And what's stunning, I think, is that he won women in New Hampshire -- 55 percent to Clinton's 44 percent. When if you look back to 2008, when it was a much bigger race, you get eight people in on the Democratic side. She earned 46 percent of the female vote. So what happened there?
BERMAN: Jeremy, what's going on with the Democrats right now? What are the Clinton people saying?
DIAMOND: I mean, listen, the Clinton campaign did not expect to win in New Hampshire. You know, they made that pretty clear. And it was going to be tough for them after kind of eking out a win in Iowa. It would have been really nice for them to come out with a win in New Hampshire. But they knew that that wasn't going to be possible.
What they were trying to do, though, is narrow the gap between them and Sanders. And it's not clear that they were able to do that. You know, there is a pretty substantial margin between the two at the end of the night. So Hillary Clinton and her campaign now saying that they have this southern firewall. That, you know, once Bernie Sanders won Iowa -- sorry, he came close in Iowa, he won New Hampshire, but where does he go next? Can he actually do well in a state like South Carolina?
You know, Bernie Sanders did well in two states that have, you know, largely white populations and he hasn't yet made huge in roads with minority communities. And that's where Hillary Clinton and her campaign certainly think they have the edge going forward.
HARLOW: Right. That's where this so-called firewall, if you will, if you call it that, comes into play going into South Carolina and Nevada.
All right, Jeremy. Thank you so much. Stay with us.
Let me bring in the rest of our panel.
Eric Bradner from CNN Politics Digital is with us. Carl Bernstein, CNN political commentator and author, "The Big Book on Hillary Clinton: A Woman in Charge." And Josh Rogin, CNN political analyst.
Thank you all for being with us.
Where do we begin? One thing that stood out to me was comparing and contrasting the speeches, Carl Bernstein, of Hillary Clinton tonight and Bernie Sanders. What is your takeaway?
CARL BERNSTEIN, CNN POLITICAL COMMENTATOR: That Sanders went on for a long time. But I think one reason was, he wanted people to get a first look at him. Many people hadn't seen him. This was a huge, national audience. And he laid out what he believes and the reason that there is this huge movement that he has begun and it has revealed Hillary Clinton to be a deeply flawed candidate.
She was repudiated tonight in a very personal way that shows how deeply flawed a candidate she is. She won, I think, only one demographic, over 65. And the failure to win women, the failure to win young people by about 4-1, and the idea that she's not -- you know, she's got problems going ahead and Sanders is also -- yes, there's a firewall supposedly, but he now can go the distance through this campaign season. He's got enough money to keep going. He's got some momentum behind him. It's going to be an exciting and increasingly nasty, unfortunately, horse race.
BERMAN: You see right there the numbers among people and asked who they felt was the most honest and trustworthy. 91 percent for Sanders, 5 percent for Hillary Clinton. Practically unanimous in this case for Bernie Sanders.
BERNSTEIN: That's astonishing.
BERMAN: Josh, it is a big number. It is a big number right there to be sure.
Josh, I want to talk about the Republican side. You have Donald Trump winning by a lot, 19 percent. I was in New Hampshire in 2000 when John McCain won by 19 percent. Donald Trump could top the margin that McCain won there.
Talk to me about Donald Trump now going to South Carolina and beyond and, also, Josh, just the shockwaves right now in the Republican establishment.
JOSH ROGIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Right. Well, I've been talking to my Republican establishment sources in preparation for this interview. And they say there's no doubt about it, this was a terrible night for Marco Rubio. He simply did not perform. He didn't think --
BERMAN: Fifth -- Fifth place.
ROGIN: Well, we'll see exactly how it shapes up as the returns come in. But either way, he had a moment after Iowa to establish himself at the front of the anti-Trump-Cruz wing. He missed that moment.
Now what they say in their defense is simple. They say, first of all, Marco Rubio has a good ground game in South Carolina. He has the endorsement of Tim Scott. And that carries some weight with conservatives in South Carolina.
[02:10:05] And also, they say every campaign eventually faces this. You get to the top and everyone attacks you. You suffer or fall. And the question is, whether or not you can recover from that fall? So South Carolina will be the test.
When it comes to Trump, there's no way to deny it, the Trump phenomenon is real. He doesn't depend on the ground game. That's not the strategy he's going with. He's going with big rallies and earned media. And he's proven that big rallies and earned media can work. And no longer can anyone say, oh, well, the Trump ground game is not as good as the other ground game.
HARLOW: Right.
ROGIN: Big rallies and earned media are going to take him through the next couple of weeks. And they're going to be a big back up.
(CROSSTALK)
HARLOW: But he want to get -- you look at the numbers and you look at these exit polls and he won across every single group. Young, old, men, women, across the board. It is astonishing for those critics of his who, back in June, when he made his announcement, laughed it off.
Eric, to you, though. When you look at Marco Rubio, Josh says he had this moment and he didn't grasp it.
Was it simply the minute and a half exchange between Chris Christie and Rubio on stage on Saturday night that did him in? Was it that? Or was it more?
ERIC BRADNER, CNN POLITICS DIGITAL REPORTER: Well, John Kasich and Chris Christie had spent a ton of time here in New Hampshire. So that has something to do with it.
But yes, a ton of this was that really bad debate. In part because it wasn't just a bad moment. It wasn't the kind of thing a candidate can easily recover from. It was something that sort of gets to the core of Marco Rubio's political talent, right? This is -- he was sort of exposed in that debate. And so now he was going to have to play a new game going forward. There's another Republican debate coming up Saturday night.
And Rubio isn't going to be able to pull the same sort of reliance on a set of sort of practiced lines in this next debate. He's going to have to show a new sort of component to his personality, to his political talent that he hasn't shown before. And demonstrating a second act in the middle of a presidential campaign like this is a really hard thing to do.
So, yes, this gives new life to the other establishment candidates. In South Carolina, it's going to be Jeb Bush versus Marco Rubio. That's going to be a huge thing to watch. Ted Cruz is absolutely thrilled about this, because this means, you know, it's not going to be him versus Rubio quite yet to see who can become the primary alternative to Donald Trump. It's going to be more establishment on a establishment sort of competition for at least one more state.
HARLOW: But as our Sunlen Serfaty reported, tonight, the Cruz camp is, quote, "laser focused on Rubio still right now."
BERMAN: Look, Ted Cruz, looks like he's finished in third in a state of New Hampshire, which is an astounding finish given what people said that an evangelical candidate could do in that state.
HARLOW: That's true.
BERMAN: We'll have much more about this.
Gentlemen, stick around. You know, you guys mentioned, the Republican debate coming up this weekend.
There's a Democratic debate. And Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders face off tomorrow night. The "PBS Democratic Presidential Debate" in Wisconsin. We are simulcasting. You can watch it right here on CNN at 9:00 Eastern Time. It will be fascinating to see.
I think Hillary Clinton will come out with a whole new attitude there.
All right. So what happens now? They were officially 9 candidates who went into New Hampshire. How many will make it out? We'll discuss that.
We're also going to hear Donald Trump's first interview after the win in New Hampshire. Coming up.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
BERNIE SANDERS (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Thank you, New Hampshire!
(APPLAUSE)
HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I still love New Hampshire and I always will!
(APPLAUSE)
TRUMP: We want to thank the people of New Hampshire! Right? Do we love the people of New Hampshire?
GOV. JOHN KASICH, (R-OH) PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: The people of New Hampshire have taught me a lesson. And from this day forward, I'm going to go slower and spend my time listening and healing and helping and bringing people together to fix our great country.
(APPLAUSE)
(END VIDEO CLIP)
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[02:17:35] BERMAN: A stunning win for Donald Trump in New Hampshire by more than 50,000 votes across a broad range of demographic groups. CNN's Jake Tapper spoke with Donald Trump in his first interview after the big New Hampshire win.
(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)
JAKE TAPPER, CNN CHIEF WASHINGTON CORRESPONDENT: I'm join on the phone right now by the winner of the New Hampshire Republican primary, one Mr. Donald J. Trump.
Mr. Trump, congratulations on your victory. Did you ever think that this was going to happen?
TRUMP (via telephone): Well, it's been a really wonderful evening, Jake. And, you know, I thought I might, but I didn't know by these numbers. And I was so happy. I just looked at your report, and it was right across the board with men, with women, with young, with old, with, you know, everything. And to win every single category was perhaps the greatest honor of all.
TAPPER: And it looks like, obviously, the voting results are still coming in, but it looks like this is the biggest victory in a Republican primary since George W. Bush lost to John McCain in New Hampshire 16 years ago.
How does it feel?
TRUMP: Well, I didn't know that number. That's a long time. It's a great feeling to know that it's been that big of a victory. But it's a lot of year. But I will tell you, it's just an honor to have won. As you know, I told you if I win by one vote, I'll be happy. But this makes me even happier, I will say that, Jake.
TAPPER: It's by a bit more than one vote. So if you look at the exit polls, you'll see that voters are looking for an outsider. They're mad at the Republican establishment. What do you think, in particular, about your message resonated with the voters of New Hampshire?
TRUMP: Well, I think it started with trade and the fact that we're being just ripped off by everybody, whether it's China, Japan, Mexico. And I think it really ended up being very much borders and security and other things having to do with security.
And then you have the migration and you have ISIS. And all of a sudden, it's morphed into that. And I think because of the fact that I had done so well with the border and done so well with the wall which will be built, I think what happened is people started saying that I would also be the best with respect to ISIS and some of the outer problems that we have. So it seems that the whole security thing, the military thing, the fact that I'm going to take of the vets far better than anybody else will be able to. It all sort of came down to that.
But it seems like pretty much of a victory in every category. And, of course, the easiest thing of all for me is going to be trade and jobs, because that's really what I do.
[02:20:09] TAPPER: In terms of how you won in New Hampshire, did you pay more attention -- did your campaign pay more attention to the ground game, to getting your voters to the polls, to making sure that they were motivated, as opposed to the approach of big rallies?
TRUMP: Well, I think the ground game was very strong and I tell you, we really focused on it after Iowa. You know, the ground game was not something I was extremely familiar with, but I learned quickly. Otherwise, the voters wouldn't like me too much.
And I think, you know, I learned very well and we have a very good ground game. You know, the people of New Hampshire are amazing people and now going to South Carolina. And I think we're going to have tremendous success there. We were just there and had 12,000 people in a wonderful, wonderful arena. And to be honest with you, the ground game was very important to me and I think we really learned about ground games very quickly.
TAPPER: As you may know, South Carolina, they like their politics a little more rough and tumble. Are you ready for what may come your way, the negative attacks, and perhaps even dirty tricks that might happen in the Palmetto State?
TRUMP: Well, we've already had dirty tricks in this campaign. So, you know, I'm ready for whatever they want to throw at me and that's fine. I mean, we've had a lot of dirty tricks in this campaign, but you know, I want to congratulate everybody that's run. They're all very capable people and it was an honor to run against them. And now I'll see them in a little while, like, I'll be -- tomorrow I'll be -- around 12:00, 1:00 tomorrow, I'll be in South Carolina getting ready. And that should be interesting.
I love South Carolina. I mean, the people are -- I've been there many, many times and the people are tremendous people. And I think I can do very well there.
TAPPER: There's a big competition, obviously, for second place and third place in New Hampshire right now.
Who do you think is your competition going forward? Is it Ted Cruz, do you see some rejuvenation for Jeb Bush and John Kasich. Who are you focused on?
TRUMP: I see them all, Jake. I really see them all. I think, you know, they're all good competitors and talented people. And, you know, right now, it looks like Kasich has a little bit of a lead, but the other one -- I'm just looking at your chart. Yep, it's getting a little bit closer. It's going to be a close race, I think. And you sort of predicted that and so did CNN and the whole group. It looks like it's going to be a pretty close race for second.
TAPPER: Lastly, you've been campaigning more with your family -- your wife, Melania, your boys, Don and Eric. How are they taking the news? This is a big, big night in Trump Family history.
TRUMP: Well, they're very proud. Melania is standing with me right now, and Don and Eric and Ivanka. Corey is right outside, who has done a terrific job. In fact, he just walked in now, so I will comment on his ground game which was excellent. But it's been an amazing period of time. And we're all thrilled. And we want to make America great again. It's very simple. We're going to make America great again.
TAPPER: Well, congratulations on a very, very strong win in New Hampshire. Best of luck to you. We'll see you out there on the campaign trail, Mr. Trump.
TRUMP: Thank you very much, Jake. You take care of yourself. Thank you.
(END VIDEOTAPE)
HARLOW: All right, the winner, Donald Trump tonight by a landslide. Joining our Jake Tapper for his first interview. Let's get reaction from our panel.
Chris Frates is with us -- Jeremy Diamond, Carl Bernstein, and Josh Rogin.
Before I get to you guys, let's just look at the number that really stands out tonight. This is from the exit polls and what it shows is Republican primary voters that wanted someone not from the political establishment. And Donald Trump won that by a huge amount. 61 percent of people that want a president not from the political establishment going for Trump, only 10 percent the second runner in that Ted Cruz.
So Carl Bernstein, to you. Listening to Donald Trump in that interview, listening to Donald Trump in his victory speech, if you will, tonight, starting out thanking everyone he knows, it seems like all of his siblings, the people of New Hampshire, everyone, and then talking about the epidemic of heroin that faces the people of New Hampshire right now, for example.
Did we see an evolution of this candidate tonight?
BERNSTEIN: We are seeing a very clever candidate who is magnanimous in his new hat. He will go back to the old hat, still. But I think something else needs to be looked at. And that's the fact that Trump, stunning victory but he does not have a majority. And he's going to have to win some primaries where he gets a majority if he's going to get the nomination.
And I think it's increasingly possible that the Republican convention could be deadlocked. A brokered convention. And if that were the case, I think, you got to start thinking about the party looking at Paul Ryan as a possible nominee if these wings of the party can't come together on one of these candidates who we see up on the board tonight. And I think it's a real possibility.
So take a look at Ryan, and I think there are people talking about it in the Republican Party, when they get to the convention, this might be a possibility.
(CROSSTALK)
BERMAN: Carl is (INAUDIBLE) all the way to its stand right there. Look, I think, Carl, you're absolutely right.
BERNSTEIN: Well, it's a long way. It's a long way off.
BERMAN: It's a long way off.
(CROSSTALK)
BERNSTEIN: Trump has got a movement. Trump has got a real movement.
(CROSSTALK)
BERMAN: I think one thing is clear. One thing is clear, and Carl is absolutely right about this, the field is more jumbled coming out of New Hampshire rather than less jumbled coming out of New Hampshire. And it's certainly possible that by the middle of March or the end of March, we don't have just two people who've won primaries or contests, but three, maybe even four.
So, Chris Frates to you, you know, people have tried to take on Donald Trump and they kind of have been cast off to the side. Rand Paul is right. He's off to the side right now. Jeb Bush tried, failed, and he's kind of clawed his way back again. Ted Cruz did in Iowa with some success.
What happens in South Carolina? Do you expect any of these candidates to say Donald Trump, you're in our sights now, we're going to take you down here and will it work?
CHRIS FRATES, CNN INVESTIGATIVE CORRESPONDENT: I think so, exactly, John. And if you're looking at the ads that are already out there in South Carolina, which of course fights a little bit dirtier than the rest of the states. Both Trump and Cruz had ads up against each other. Donald Trump taking on Ted Cruz saying he's not trustworthy. That's been a big selling point for the Cruz, guys.
And then when you look at what Cruz is shooting against Trump, he's saying -- you know, he uses imminent domain to park his limousines and kick little old ladies out of their houses. Much like Jeb Bush attacked Donald Trump on that same point in the debate.
So, I think, these guys are going to start to go at it. And it will be interesting to see, do some of those establishment candidates who are left -- Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and maybe Chris Christie, we'll see if he continues on. But certainly Marco Rubio, do they start to coalesce and start hitting Trump as a group?
Because what he hasn't had is that kind of target on his back that so many of the other candidates have. Jeb Bush had it in the beginning. Donald Trump went after him right in those first debates and said you're low energy, you're not tough enough, that nab Jeb out.
And then Trump kind of skated through the rest of those debates until we got to Marco Rubio just on Saturday. And then Chris Christie knocking Marco Rubio around a little bit, showing that, you know, he's off and on message and you know kind of showing his weaknesses. But we've not seen the field kind of gang up on Donald Trump and really show those weaknesses.
So I do think that the establishment who is very nervous right now, they hoped maybe Marco Rubio would be the candidate coming out of New Hampshire that everybody could coalesce behind. He didn't do so well. You know, he's in fifth place. Instead of three, we're maybe getting five. But do those establishment candidates kind of form a little bit of an alliance and take on Donald Trump in the same way that we saw Christie and Bush, you know, trying to take on Marco Rubio. I think that's a really good question, guys.
HARLOW: Yes, but didn't seem to help Christie tonight at all. But, you know --
FRATES: Or Rubio.
HARLOW: But Rubio coming out tonight --
(CROSSTALK)
FRATES: (INAUDIBLE). It hurt Rubio badly.
HARLOW: If he did it, I mean, how -- were you surprised to hear Rubio say this is on me? I did a bad job Saturday and I won't again.
BERMAN: I'm surprised it took him thee days to say it. And I think that probably hurt him. That is why he said we'll talk much more about this sort of runners up in the road ahead for some of those other candidates to finish back in the pack, coming up. It's some very interesting discussion.
HARLOW: It is. We're going to be right back. We have a lot coming up on this show and then ahead on "NEW DAY" this morning, three major interviews.
Of course, the man who took first place in New Hampshire by a landslide, Donald Trump will join us live. Jeb Bush, John Kasich, all on "NEW DAY" beginning 5:30 A.M. Eastern Time this morning. Quick break. We'll be right back.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[02:30:10] BERMAN: Bernie Sanders is on top of the world this morning, beating Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire by more than 20 points. How did he do so well? How did she do so poorly?
HARLOW: That is the big question, the question being debated on both those planes. I guarantee it right about now.
Jeremy Diamond, Chris Frates, Carl Bernstein, Josh Rogin back with us. Josh Rogin, to you. When we look at Sanders, sources telling CNN tonight that his camp takes this win, big win tonight, maps out the next six weeks, looks at all of these other states. Looking Michigan very closely right now. Minnesota, places where they don't go to the polls for, you know, three, four weeks' time. And some look at this and say, are we at a Bernie peak? Where do you, where do you fall on that?
ROGIN: Well, I think that there's a realization inside the Sanders' campaign that they can't ramp up and take advantage of all of the new money, the new support they have right away. It takes time to build infrastructure. So by projecting that they're working on the states that are a little further out, they can lower expectations for the states coming up, namely South Carolina and Nevada, states that Hillary Clinton is, by the way, favored to win heavily because of structural and political realities that go beyond what's happened in the last couple of weeks. So they can...
HARLOW: Depending on how the voter may feel. The electorate look so much different than in Iowa and New Hampshire.
ROGIN: Exactly. Plus... And, and Hillary Clinton has done well in South Carolina before. The Clintons have a big infrastructure there, they have a lot of support there. So Bernie Sanders is trying to capitalize, take all of the new political and financial capital, and spend it down wisely. If he spends it fast and then comes up short, it'll be over. But if he spends it slowly, and then projects wins out in the March and April timeframe, he can keep the narrative alive, keep the money coming in, and sort of stave off the down turn that's coming next week.
BERMAN: Keep your eye on Nevada though. It comes first for the Democrats, it's a caucus state, which means organization matters. Bernie Sanders has been up on TV there, he sent people in, paid staffers. He could do better than expected in Nevada. I want to play some sound from Hillary Clinton here because you know her well. You've studied her for a long time. She was talking tonight in her speech, and she focused on the young voters, the young voters who are running away from her in almost unimaginable numbers. I mean she lost -- Bernie Sanders won like, what? Ninety-one percent of younger voters. And Hillary Clinton knows that and she talked about it in her concession speech tonight.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
CLINTON: I know I have some work to do, particularly with young people. But I will repeat again what I have said this week. (APPLAUSE) Even, even if they are not supporting me now, I support them. (APPLAUSE) Because I know, I know I've had a blessed life. But I also know what it's like to stumble and fall. And so many people across America know that feeling. And we've learned it's not whether you get knocked down that matters. It's whether you get back up!
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BERMAN: So got the number wrong, Carl, I got the number wrong. It's 83 percent of the younger vote that Bernie Sanders won. It's still a lot. You heard Hillary Clinton say she knows what it's like to stumble and fall down and get back up again. What does this mean (INAUDIBLE)?
BERNSTEIN: She does. It's a line, it's a line, it's a line from her mother, from her childhood, and indeed Hillary Clinton has done this throughout her life, both on the public stage and in private. But there's -- we keep hearing from Hillary Clinton a kind of evolved, why I should be President. And when meanwhile, we're seeing Bernie Sanders saying this is a movement I'm building. And she's now up against a movement. And what all those exit polls show, and the anecdotal evidence shows, is that this movement has left her behind, certainly in the states she's competed in so far.
And I was fascinated by Randi Kaye's interviews earlier tonight on CNN with some undecided voters in South Carolina, a number of whom were African-Americans who said, oh, I think I want to go with Bernie Sanders. I think we're looking at something that is a real repudiation of Hillary Clinton, of the Clintons, of Clinton fatigue. She might be able to right herself, the demographics still favor her in many ways, but this is a new campaign and Bernie Sanders has tapped into something. We don't know where it's going to go, but it's a different kind of fight, it's for the soul of the party, and part of Hillary's problem is she has come late to the issues that have been defined by Bernie Sanders. That's not to say her whole career in politics, her whole life has been devoted to many of the same causes being espoused by Sanders. But in this campaign, particularly on economic matters and disparity and Wall Street, she is late to the party and that's a big problem.
HARLOW: Well, and that's... And that, Carl, that's what she, she pointed out tonight in her speech. She sort of ticked through, and when I worked for the Children's Defense Fund, et cetera, et cetera. Saying here is how I executed on what you're hearing from Bernie Sanders.
Chris Frates, to you, looking at Hillary Clinton and the fact that women 30 years old and younger voted or Sanders over Clinton tonight in New Hampshire by a nearly 4 to 1 margin. Couple that with what Carl just said in terms of some of the African-American voters, this so-called firewall for Clinton in South Carolina, may be tipping towards Sanders. What do you do if you're her campaign manager right now?
FRATES: Well, I think, you know, she really has to take a hard look. And you saw those stories start to come out in the press that she was thinking about reorganizing that campaign. Keep in mind that those stories are almost job security articles for the Clinton campaign because, now that it's out there, she can't do a whole lot of reshuffling without looking like she's panicked a little bit. But if you're Hillary Clinton, you have to look at that gap, and you saw her bring some heavy hitters. She brought some women Senators to the stage. Amy Kkobuchar. She brought Madeleine Albright, who famously said, you know, there's a special place in hell for women who don't support other women.
But younger voters are going towards Bernie Sanders because he represents the left here, and Hillary Clinton, whether it's on the TPP trade deal, whether it's on the Keystone Pipeline, Bernie Sanders has outflanked her, and always says she's coming late to the party, because she's making political calculations and not calculations based on principles. That's hugely problematic for her.
And when you look at of course South Carolina, (will) is Clinton country, that's good territory for her. And so is Nevada. But the Sanders' people are making an argument that they have the money. Now, remember, they are raising money almost at the same clip that Hillary Clinton is, and they have an almost bigger advantage, because they're getting smaller donors. As he loves to say, his average donation is $27. That means that donor can give again and again and again. Whereas the Clinton donors are often maxed out. But he can do things in Colorado, Minneapolis, and Minnesota, in Massachusetts. So look for this map to get a lot bigger a lot faster, guys.
HARLOW: Well, and also...
BERNSTEIN: Poppy, let me interject with one idea here, if I may.
HARLOW: Quick, quickly, Carl.
BERNSTEIN: And that is the distrust factor. That's what is really undermining Hillary Clinton. It shows in all the exit polls. The server. The, the line that she keeps going to about the vast right wing conspiracy is not working. And that is a big problem for her.
HARLOW: And when you look at the money, I was just going to say, the Sanders camp raising $20 million in January, Clinton raising $15 million. And, as Chris points out they're tapping a broader base that is not giving anywhere near the max. Ostensibly you have more to tap. All right, guys, stay with us. A lot more ahead. Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton, face to face, the two of them debating in the PBS Democratic National Debate in Wisconsin tomorrow night. You will be able to see it live right here on CNN, 9:00 pm Eastern. Again, tomorrow night, 9:00 pm Eastern. Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton debate.
BERMAN: So you want clarity coming out of New Hampshire? Forget about it. The Republican race, it is a mess right now heading to South Carolina. Who has the best shot down there? Who really won and who really lost coming out of New Hampshire? That's next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
HARLOW: If we have learned one thing This election season, everyone loves to win, but Donald Trump really loves to win. And that is exactly what he did in New Hampshire by a long shot. It was a very different story for Marco Rubio. He even admitted his debate performance on Saturday night really hurt him. Listen.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R-FL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I want you to understand something. Our disappointment tonight is not on you, it's on me. It's on me. I did not, I did not do well on Saturday night, so listen to this, that will never happen again.
(APPLAUSE)
That will never happen again.
(APPLAUSE)
And let me tell you why, let me tell you why it will never happen again. It's not about me, it's not about this campaign. It is about this election. It is about this election. It is about what's at stake in this election.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
HARLOW: Well, let's talk it over with our panel. Jeremy Diamond, Chris Frates, Eric Bradner, Carl Berstein, Josh Rogin back with us. Gentlemen, one of the very important things outside of the winner -- Berman always thinks we don't talk enough about, the winner...
BERMAN: We don't talk about (INAUDIBLE).
HARLOW: Which is completely right, so he's going to do that in one moment, but is -- how important second place is in this election especially second place in New Hampshire is so important because it is who will be the establishment guy, if you will, right? So John Kasich takes it out of New Hampshire, the question is, what is his momentum like going forward? And by the way, we're 46 minutes into this show, and we haven't talked about Jeb Bush, so to you, Josh Rogin.
ROGIN: Yeah, well, talking to GOP operatives and donors tonight, it seems clear that they believe John Kasich does not have what it takes to make it all the way through in terms of infrastructure, money, support. So that battle for the establishment candidate is still on. Now, if you look through the list, Jeb Bush still has the same fundamental flaws he had a week ago.
HARLOW: But he has a ton of money.
ROGIN: He has plenty of money, but he still has that last name. He's still not doing well on the trail. He's still underperforming in the debates. So the money's not going to -- the, the support is not going to go right to him. Chris Christie is likely out, if not sooner than later. So as all of the Republican power players look around, they still come back to Marco Rubio. You know, we saw in the CNN exit polls that the Republicans are late deciders. So what does that mean? That means that the debate on Saturday did probably have an effect, but it also means that Rubio can redeem himself in the next debate. And there are a lot of people in South Carolina, especially Republicans, that won't make the decision until the last couple of days. So the money, a lot of money is still out there. It's still not been allocated, and Rubio has just as much chance at reclaiming that spot as anyone.
BERMAN: He does, but it was such a missed opportunity. Because the entire establishment, from members of Congress, from big money people, to the conservative media establishment, you could practically see them falling over themselves to line up behind Marco Rubio in the last week. And then it just completely stalled out After the debate Saturday night. You know, our folks are reporting there are two Senators who were on the verge of endorsing Rubio who didn't after Saturday night. You know, Jeremy Diamond, you know, as much as Poppy's right, I like to talk about the winners here. I, I think the Rubio whiff, if you will, is a dynamic that's completely changed the shape of the race.
It's gone from possibly a three-person field in South Carolina, Jeremy, to a five-person field. You know, it's given new life to Jeb Bush, new life to John Kasich. If you give new life to those characters, Jeremy, you're giving even more life to Donald Trump.
DIAMOND: Yeah, absolutely. And, listen, South Carolina is an interesting state, because you have several candidates who have really strong operations there, some strong backing. You know, Donald Trump's South Carolina team is probably the most professional, the most prepared, the most establishment of his teams as far as between Iowa and New Hampshire and South Carolina. Jeb Bush is going to bring in George w. Bush, former President, into South Carolina to campaign with him on his behalf. And he is somebody who is still a very popular figure in South Carolina, which is a really military heavy, military centric state. And then you have Marco Rubio as well, you know, having the support of Senator Tim Scott there. And he also has a lot of support among the establishment politicians in South Carolina.
And what's interesting is I was speaking with some Rubio supporters in South Carolina this week, and they were saying that, you know, if Marco Rubio can pull out a second place finish in New Hampshire, then that would help him kind of solidify that moment, help the coalescing movement happen among the establishment candidates to kind of coalesce against Donald Trump. But Marco Rubio wasn't able to kind of do that tonight. You know, he didn't come in second, he didn't come in third. And so that's something that's going to really hurt him and something that his supporters were not looking forward to going into South Carolina.
BERMAN: And don't forget, the intramural battle here. He looks like he lost to Jeb Bush. It looks like Marco Rubio lost to Jeb Bush in New Hampshire, which is a big bragging rights issue in Florida and there is money there. They're operatives (ph) there too. Not to mention that the spite between the two campaigns. So interesting to see what happens.
BERNSTEIN: Are we sure that Rubio is really the establishment or an establishment candidate? He won the -- you know his appeal was originally to the Tea Party. He's trying to be all things to all factions in this, in this election. It would seem that the repudiation of Rubio and what's occurred in the past few days is a ticket back to Congress and for him to learn some things and then get back in the big leagues. But I, I'd be very surprised if we're going to see a resurgence of Rubio in this campaign.
HARLOW: All right. Stay with us, gentlemen. We're going to take a quick break, but New Hampshire is one thing, the next contests are quite another. The makeup of the electorate in South Carolina and Nevada really looks nothing like it has in New Hampshire and Iowa. So where does the race go from here? Stay with us. We're back in a moment
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BERMAN: Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, big winners in New Hampshire. Now the Democrats go on to Nevada, the Republicans go on to South Carolina. What does that mean? How do they do it? Joining us again, Josh Rogin.
Josh, let's talk about Nevada right now. It's a caucus state, which is messed up, right? I mean it's all about organization. The Democrats vote during the day. You know, it's not something that's out in the open. How do you win in a place like Nevada?
ROGIN: You have to get your surrogates in place early, you have to get out the vote, and you have the ground game to set up your win. The other thing is that Nevada is a closed state. So only voters who are registered with the party can vote for that party.
BERMAN: And one fun fact here, as much as Hillary Clinton got shellacked across everywhere in New Hampshire, she tied among Democratic voters. (INAUDIBLE) by Democratic voters 49 to 49, so.
ROGIN: So that benefits Clinton, but it also benefits...
HARLOW: But the caucusing would benefit Sanders, you would argue.
ROGIN: Right, so they might -- it might be a wash. But on the Republican side, it's not. Because Independent voters lean heavily for Trump when they vote in Republican caucuces. In a closed system, it's going to be hard to get over the establishment Republican voters. So the establishment Republican candidates have a built in advantage. Will it be enough to overcome the Trump big advantage? We'll have to wait and see.
HARLOW: Especially after the momentum from New Hampshire.
ROGIN: Exactly.
BERMAN: It's also a really difficult state to poll. So all these campaigns to a certain extent fly blind there right up until the end, which is something they hate. All right, Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, they won big. So much more to discuss, especially what happens now. Stay with us.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
BERMAN: Good morning, everyone. Welcome to a special post-primary edition of EARLY START. It's 3:00 am in the East. I'm John Berman.
HARLOW: And I'm Poppy Harlow. I hope you were up late or very, very early with us. What a night.
BERMAN: Yeah, I hope you didn't sleep at all.
HARLOW: Like us!
