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Aired February 10, 2016 - 04:00 ET
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JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: The big news this morning, the wins for Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. The New Hampshire victors in landslide style, crushing the competition.
[04:00:04] We'll talk about how they pulled off the big wins and what it means going forward. The presidential race, it is on.
Good morning, everyone. Welcome to EARLY START. I'm John Berman.
CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN ANCHOR: And I'm Christine Romans. Nice to see you all this morning. It's bright and early Wednesday, February 10th, 4:00 a.m. in the East.
After a long exciting night, big victories in the New Hampshire this morning for the outsider candidates, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, with 92 percent of the votes tallied in the state's first in the nation primary, Trump vastly outpacing his rivals, nearly 20 points ahead of John Kasich, John Kasich who nevertheless beat expectations with a number two finish, a second place finish. The rest of the Republican pack bunched together with 12 percent or less.
Between the Democrats Bernie Sanders also soundly beat Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire by more than 20 points -- a painfully, painfully wide margin for Clinton on the heels of her defeat in Iowa last week. Let's hear from the winners, Sanders and Trump.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: We are going to start winning again and we're going to win so much you are going to be so happy. We are going to make America so great again, maybe greater than ever before. I love you all. Thank you, New Hampshire. Thank you. Thank you, New Hampshire. Thank you.
We are going now to South Carolina. We're going to win in South Carolina.
SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I also hope that we all remember, and this is a message not just to our opponents but to those who support me as well, that we will need to come together in a few months and unite this party and this nation because the right wing Republicans we oppose must not be allowed to gain the presidency.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BERMAN: Let's talk about the big wins for Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders.
Let's bring in our panel of political experts. "Daily Beast" columnist Patricia Murphy, CNN political analyst and "Bloomberg View" columnist Josh Rogin.
Patricia, let me start with you here. Donald Trump, wow. I mean, I was up in New Hampshire the last five days and the whispers were, you know, Donald Trump he may win but it's going to be by a slimmer margin than is reflected in the polls right now, maybe single digits. But he outperformed expectations there.
PATRICIA MURPHY, COLUMNIST, THE DAILY BEAST: He absolutely outperformed expectations there. I was in New Hampshire as well and you would go to his rallies, thousands of people in what felt like the middle of nowhere kind of a small ski town and people were coming out and it was a really -- it was a much more diverse group than I would have expected to see, not in terms of racially diverse, but there were people -- low income, middle income, high income, women, people with kids, not a group you were expecting to see.
And they weren't just there as political tourists or to see the show, they were really there for Donald Trump. And the buzz going into the situation, a lot like Iowa, was let's see if this is a sugar high or a poll that's got awry. And really, it's not a poll that has gone awry. It's that he has really hit a button with a broad diverse group of voters and I think it really showed in New Hampshire.
When he goes into South Carolina I think we will see a similar strength because he spent a lot of time down there, he's gotten huge crowds down there and I think he is going to take this into South Carolina and he's set up to do well in the next state as well.
ROMANS: He has had big crowds in South Carolina, thousands of people.
Josh, when you look at that margin for Donald Trump, I think that's a pretty impressive margin. Then you go down the list here. You've got a cluster, you know, in the11 percent and below, but John Kasich, John Kasich with his positivity coming up number two. How does he take that going forward?
JOSH ROGIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: So, John Kasich's investment in New Hampshire really paid off. He dedicated himself to it, he went all in and he came out with the number two. But as you look forward, there's not really another plausible state where John Kasich could reach the number two spot until his home state of Ohio, which is March 15th.
BERMAN: I will say, March 1st, you have Massachusetts, you have Vermont. March 8th, you have Michigan. I mean, they have time now -- he is not going to quit, obviously he is going to move on. They have to figure out what works for them. This may be some checker board action here in this campaign where you have candidates campaigning in states that other candidates don't even step in.
ROGIN: In this cycle, I wouldn't put anything out of the realm of possibility. What I would say is this, we're basically in the same place in the Republican field as we were before Iowa where we're looking for a consolidation amongst the non-Trump/Cruz candidates. For a while after Iowa, it looked like Rubio was strong, that he was going to take that consolidation, then he stumbled and we are back to where we were two weeks ago, where you have Trump/Cruz then everyone thinking who is going to be the alternative to Trump/Cruz and that's wide open, and now, we're starting that again.
ROMANS: You know, Patricia, so many -- the last few days, people were saying, all right, who moves on from New Hampshire, who moves on from New Hampshire. It looks like they all move on except for maybe Chris Christie.
[04:05:02] MURPHY: Yes, Chris Christie is actually somebody who I thought was going to move on out of New Hampshire. He was looking really strong, but the polls come in, the donors don't like what they see and it's really -- nobody really stops running for president, you just run out of money is the old saying. So, I think he has probably heard from some people last night who were like, eh, I don't know about this.
When you do get to South Carolina, I think for Kasich what he is going to run into, he made that huge investment in New Hampshire, he has made no similar investment in South Carolina. He spent the least amount of time there. He has the least amount of infrastructure.
And so, for Jeb Bush to come in fourth, not a great showing, not as good as they wanted it to be, but to come in fourth with Kasich as being the establishment guy ahead of you, they are very confident that they can pick up those Kasich voters and those people who are going looking for somebody who is not a screamer, who can get things done, who does have a record of what they consider good accomplishments.
I think the Bush people are very encouraged that the only establishment guy who finished ahead of them was John Kasich. They look at those votes as their votes.
BERMAN: And then there is the Marco Rubio implosion which I think is probably open the door for John Kasich and Jeb Bush.
I would like to get that, but I want to make sure we talk about the Democrats, Josh, because Bernie Sanders, he defied expectations as well. I know some polls had him up by 30, but no one thought really realistically it was that close. A 22-point win in New Hampshire, beating Hillary Clinton among women by 11 points. It's really an astounding win.
ROGIN: Beating women by 11 points, beating undeclared by over 40 points, beating Clinton 18 to 29 year olds by a five to one margin. These are big demographics not only for the primary, but the Democrat versus Republican candidate in the general, women, young voters, these are really important general election constituencies, especially if you are looking at a Marco Rubio as an opponent. So, that -- this is not just a problem for Hillary in the primaries,
this is a problem for her if she even beats Bernie Sanders and makes it to the general and she's losing support amongst women and young people and independents, that's a problem that will last her to November.
ROMANS: When they were asked who was most likely to win in the general, the exit poll show that Hillary Clinton was more electable, right?
BERMAN: If electability is your number one issue, then you supported Hillary Clinton overwhelmingly.
ROMANS: Right, right.
So, Patricia, what does she do going forward, and a lot of people talk about how she's got this deep well of goodwill when she heads to South Carolina and beyond?
MURPHY: Well, I think that's right. I think the Nevada actually caucuses might be another bit of a problem spot for her. We talk about electability. You know, the definition of electability is winning elections. She's going to have to start not just winning but winning convincingly.
But when you get to South Carolina, that is such a different demographic and not just racially but you're looking at the lives that people in South Carolina are living. That is a 55 percent African- American primary that's going on in South Carolina. 63 percent of those voters have no college degree, 53 percent are living $50,000 or less.
So, it's a much different electorate. The issues are very different.
We even heard Hillary Clinton talking last night, she wasn't really talking about New Hampshire anymore. She was talking about Flint, Michigan. She was talking about problems that Latinos are facing. You shouldn't have to stay awake at night waiting for somebody to knock on the door to come get you and your family.
So, she has already changed her message. She needs to change her message. And that's what she was doing last night.
South Carolina I think will be a very different experience for Hillary Clinton. If Bernie Sanders can make inroads among African-American better, but she already has deep infrastructure and a very long history with black voters in South Carolina, particularly being Barack Obama's secretary of state.
When I talk to voters in South Carolina, Democrats, its not just being the first lady but it's being a trusted adviser to Barack Obama. It's hugely important to them. They see that as a major vote of confidence from Barack Obama being conferred to Hillary Clinton. So, I think that will be important for her as well.
BERMAN: All right. We'll talk much more about this in the coming minutes, guys. Big wins again for Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Big losses for Hillary Clinton and you might also say that Marco Rubio I think in some ways the big loser among Republicans in New Hampshire along with Chris Christie.
ROMANS: All right. Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders go head to head tomorrow in a PBS NewsHour Democratic debate from Milwaukee, and we're going to air it here on CNN and your local PBS station. You can watch it at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.
BERMAN: And coming up a little bit later on NEW DAY, three of the Republican candidates, they will be with us. You have Donald Trump, you have John Kasich, you have Jeb Bush coming up on NEW DAY.
ROMANS: All right. Independents helping Trump and Sanders soar to victory last night. What we're learning about who voted, the issues most important to them, how that will change the campaigns ahead, next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[04:13:25] BERMAN: So, what the heck happened in New Hampshire? Well, we have an answer, sort of. The exit polls shed some light on how Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders won so big in the primary there last night. Sanders had the overwhelming support of every Democratic age group under the age of 65. He even won a majority of women voters.
On the Republican side Donald Trump won with voters of nearly every strike, conservatives, moderates, first time voters and those who have previously voted. He even won among evangelical Christians. He even edged out Ted Cruz among evangelicals.
ROMANS: And those exit polls showing GOP voters in New Hampshire, they basically don't like their party and they don't like their government at the moment.
Let's talk about through all this exit poll data, let's bring back our panel of political experts. CNN politics digital reporter Eric Bradner, CNN investigative correspondent Chris Frates, Patricia Murphy, and CNN political analyst Josh Rogin, a columnist for "Bloomberg View", the brain trust here bright and early this morning or late at night. It's hard to tell exactly.
Eric, let me bring you in first here. The Sanders victory decisive here. I mean, decisive among just about every single demographic and young people -- my goodness, young people love Bernie Sanders in New Hampshire.
ERIC BRADNER, CNN POLITICS DIGITAL REPORTER: Yes. The young people advantage is astounding. It was like five to one. This is something that Hillary Clinton can't sustain if she's going to be the Democratic nominee. She can't keep getting beat by that kind of margin among young people.
Now, in some states, there will be stricter rules about who can participate in the Democratic nominating process, but Bernie Sanders won among women here.
[04:15:03] He won with every age group other than 65 and up. And so, Hillary Clinton knows her biggest problem is among young people, though. She talks tonight about sort of admitting that and saying that, you know, even though they are not on her side right now, she will fight for them.
But her campaign is going to have to retool it's message, sort of find a way to be more forward looking and reach out to young people who are going to be especially important as the Clinton campaign looks at Latinos and African-Americans as sort of part of this firewall she's going to have to reach young voters in those communities, too.
BERMAN: One more question on the Democrats before we move to the Republicans, Patricia. On the question of honest and trustworthy, you know, who is the most honest and trustworthy, Bernie Sanders just crushes Hillary Clinton. It's like 92 percent. I think we have the graphic for that.
It's like 92 percent for Bernie, 91 percent for Bernie Sanders. Five -- five for Hillary Clinton. Martin O'Malley not in the race gets 1 percent there. But that's an unbelievable spread.
MURPHY: It's an unbelievable spread --
BRADNER: It really --
MURPHY: Go ahead.
BERMAN: Patricia, go ahead.
MURPHY: I was going to say for anybody involved in the Clinton campaign that is such a deeply distressing metric because trust is something that is so hard to turn around. How do you get somebody to trust you who doesn't trust you right now?
This has always been her problem. This has been her biggest vulnerability throughout this primary season and it's really starting to show I think in the voters and when talk to voters they literally say I just don't trust Hillary Clinton.
How does the Clinton campaign turn that around? I don't think there is an easy answer to that. So, you can retool your message, you can figure out who you are going to talk to, you can decide who is going to be your chief strategist, but how do you get voters to fundamentally change the way they feel about you, whether they believe what you're saying or not, whether they believe you're going to do what you say you're going to do or not.
That is a really difficult fundamental problem for Hillary Clinton going forward, and that's not going to be easy to change. She's going to basically have to change the electorate that she's in front of right now. She gets into some of these later states, she's going to have a different -- as was said before, she's going to have a different group of voters, people who are not independents, some of those closed primaries with just Democratic primary voters, with more African-Americans who are much more likely to trust her on some of these issues.
She's going to have to get into a different group of people who are telling her they do trust her, otherwise, it's hard to get somebody to change their mind about whether they believe your or not.
ROMANS: Let's talk about the GOP quickly, because, you know, it's not exactly trust. But, boy, these exit polls certainly show that these undecided voters, these GOP voters, they don't have a very high regard for their party or the federal government at the moment, Chris Frates. They really don't. That came through in shining colors last night.
CHRIS FRATES, CNN INVESTIGATIVE CORRESPONDENT: And that's no surprise, right, because we saw that with Ted Cruz as well in eye warnings the evangelicals, the exit polls showed that was an anti- establishment vote and that was what Donald Trump was talking about. When you listened to his message it was we need to make America great again, we're losing to China, we're losing our military and it was a very losing lesson.
But I want to harken back a little bit to that Hillary Clinton point because I was talking to voters at a polling place today and I talked to a woman who supported Hillary Clinton. In fact, she watched all 11 hours of the Benghazi hearing where she was being grilled on what happened in Benghazi and on her e-mail in particular which has been a huge trust issue for her and she thought she was going to be a Hillary supporter. Then, she heard Bernie Sanders message of we need to get the Wall Street banks and the fraud that's happening and take it back for the people and that really resonated with her.
So, here was a voter who even had overcome the trust issue who was still won over by Bernie Sanders. So, there is a huge anti- establishment strain whether you are a Republican or you are a Democrat this cycle, and that's very concerning to Hillary Clinton and to all the folks in the Republican establishment lane, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush included.
BERMAN: You know, when you win as big as Donald Trump won you tend to win among every demographic group. But if you look at the exit polls he did well with just about everybody, including evangelicals. They edged out on evangelicals. The camera is moving around on Eric. Eric is getting jumpy out there in New Hampshire right now.
But Donald Trump did very well among all groups. The question is, can he carry it forward or is that unique to New Hampshire?
Eric, take this on, if you will. What do you think his prospects are. I guess one area he was weak with was, you know, understands the problems of people like me. I don't think Donald Trump thinks he is quite like them.
BRADNER: Well, the fact that Donald Trump did so well here in New Hampshire is really telling not just because of the demographics, but because this is a state that that historically has demanded a lot of in-person time with candidates, where somebody like John Kasich did well because he did more than 100 town hall events. The fact that Donald Trump could do well here is telling as the race shifts to sort of a bigger more sort of wholesale political nature where he can do these big rallies and reach tons and tons of people ahead of Super Tuesday, where it's impossible for a candidate to meet each and every one of them.
The fact that he did well among evangelicals is also fascinating. It's partly because Marco Rubio struggled and there's still sort of this split among the alternatives to Donald Trump. Ted Cruz thinks this is great and the rest of them just wish some of these opponents would get out of the way already.
And when the race does sort of start to shrink to maybe two to three candidates, then we will be able to know more, because Trump is winning a plurality, but he's not winning a majority of Republican supporters just yet.
But the fact that he was able to do so well so broadly makes him the very clear front runner here after a strong second place showing and then a win here. He is leading the national polls and these big events are going to play even better as we move into states that vote several at a time.
BERMAN: All right, guys, stand by. Much more to discuss, much more on the New Hampshire primary ahead, but first a new warning about the Zika virus causing more damage to newborn babies than previously thought. What researchers now revealing. That's next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[04:25:15] BERMAN: All right. New this morning, information that the Zika virus may be causing eye abnormalities in infants.
Researchers studied 29 infants at a Brazilian hospital, all of them infected with the virus and suffering from certain symptoms. Ten of those infants also had damage to their retina or optic nerve. It's not clear yet how badly their vision is impaired. Doctors say they have ruled out all other possible causes of the lesions and tissue damage in the eyes of those children.
ROMANS: All right. Let's check your money. Complicating the election landscape, a global stock market slump some relief today, U.S. stock market futures are higher, Europe higher as well. Look at Tokyo, more big losses overnight in Tokyo.
Here's what helping the stock market gains elsewhere. Oil prices are up 2 percent, still below $29 a barrel. That oil connection with stocks has been just ironclad here.
Here is where things stand right now, these are losses from the highs over the past year, this is a good measure of longer term performance, the Dow down 12.7 percent from the high last year, NASDAQ 18.4 percent nearing a bear market. The S&P 500 is losing 13.2 percent, oil has crashed, China's slow down, the main reasons for this big decline. There are growing fears about the global banking sector, especially big banks in Europe.
One thing traders will be watching today, the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen, she is headed to Capitol Hill to give her semi-annual testimony to Congress.
When you look at what happened last night in New Hampshire, those exit polls showing the economy, wages, jobs, income inequality among the Democrats were among the top concerns of voters there.
BERMAN: And the big news this morning is what the voters there in New Hampshire had to say. They liked that guy. They liked him a lot. Donald Trump there with a win like we haven't seen in decades. Bernie Sanders with a win the likes of which we haven't seen in decades. Just obliterating their competition.
How did it happen and what does it mean? That's next.
(COMMERCIAL BREAK)
[04:30:41] ROMANS: Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders win big, big in New Hampshire. Landslide victories in the nation's first presidential primary election. How they pulled off their wins and how their competitors plan to make come backs, live team coverage starts right now.
Welcome back to EARLY START this morning, a special edition of EARLY START. I'm Christine Romans.
BERMAN: The very special edition of EARLY START. I'm John Berman. Thirty minutes past the hour right now.
And, wow. Wow.
ROMANS: What a night.
BERMAN: Big victories in New Hampshire for the outsider candidates, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. About 92 percent of the votes tallied so far in the first in the nation primary.
Look at it right there, Donald Trump 35 percent, John Kasich 16 percent. That's a 19-point margin of victory that at least equals John McCain's margin of victory in 2000. So, Donald Trump has done as well as anyone has in a long time, maybe better than that. The rest of the Republican field bunched down past 12 percent. Marco Rubio not even on a board, he is in fifth place. What a story that is.
On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders, he crushed Hillary Clinton beating her by more than 20 points. It was a 22 point margin, that is tough to take for Hillary Clinton on the heels of a close race in Iowa last week. You will remember Hillary Clinton won Iowa.
Joining us now to help sort through the results, CNN politics reporter Eric Bradner live in New Hampshire -- Eric.
BRADNER: Hey, you know, it was the night of the anti-establishment candidates here in New Hampshire. After coming up a little bit short in Iowa, both Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump were able to not only get wins, but really blow out their opponents here in New Hampshire. On the Republican side Trump doubled his competition, it was a clear victory for him. But another big story is John Kasich who surged in the second plate. He really put all of his eggs in the New Hampshire basket and sort of got a new lease on life for that I saw campaign here. Marco Rubio had a really bad night, though, after a rough debate when he was attacked by Chris Christie, he plummeted to fifth place.
And so now, the big question is what happens with the opening that he has created? Can some other establishment candidate, maybe a Jeb Bush as the race shifts to South Carolina capitalize on the opening that Rubio has created?
On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders won and Donald Trump actually had some kind words for Sanders. Listen to what Trump said.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
TRUMP: First of all, congratulations to Bernie. In all fairness, we have to congratulate him. We may not like it, but I heard parts of Bernie's speech. He wants to give away our country, folks. He wants to give away -- we're not going to let it happen. I don't know where it's going with Bernie. We wish him a lot of luck, but we are going to make America great again but we're going to do it the old fashioned way.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BRADNER: Now, for Sanders New Hampshire was a really strong state. He had been polling well ahead of Clinton here for a long time, but as the race shifts to Nevada and South Carolina the question is whether he can broaden his appeal in states that have more minority voters.
Clinton is going to sharper her attacks on Sanders as the race moves forward, now that she's been sort of knocked off the pedestal. Sanders is already preparing for that.
Listen to what he said tonight in his victory speech.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
SANDERS: I have been criticized during this campaign for many, many things, every single day. That's OK. That's all right. They're throwing everything at me except the kitchen sink and I have the feeling that kitchen sink is coming pretty soon as well.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BRADNER: Now, John and Christine, Sanders' campaign tells us that they are preparing to expand nationally with new ads in Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota and Oklahoma as they start to compete in Super Tuesday states. Sanders is really trying to turn his momentum here into a national movement -- John and Christine.
ROMANS: Eric Bradner, thanks for that.
In his momentum there, trying to even raise some money and crashing the website. BERMAN: He's got no problems raising money.
ROMANS: Trying to raise the money. Let's break down the winners and losers this morning, bringing our panel of political experts. CNN politics digital reporter, you just heard him, Eric Bradner, CNN investigative correspondent Chris Frates, "The Daily Beast" columnist Patricia Murphy, and CNN political analyst Josh Rogin, a columnist for "Bloomberg View".
[04:35:05] Josh, I want to start with you. Let's say on the Democrats here. Hillary Clinton, she's got to do something. She's got to do something to rev up support among young people, among young women in particular. How does she change her message, fine tune her message as she moves forward or does she need to?
ROGIN: She's going to have a lot of trouble changing course at this point. She's got her campaign, it's set, she's got her strategy, she's got her people spread out around the country.
She can make tweaks on the edges, but she can't change who she is. She can't come up with a well-crafted message that speaks to her authenticity. It just doesn't work that way.
So, what she's got to try to do is stick to her game plan, reassure her supporters that this is not as bad as it looks -- and it looks very bad for her -- and then sort of try to find ways on the margins to appeal to those demographics that she seems to be clearly failing to reach. That's young voters, that's women voters and that's independents because those are the three camps she's going to need in the general election if she makes it there.
ROMANS: Let's listen to what Hillary Clinton said about the work she has to do.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I know I have some work to do, particularly with young people, but I will repeat again what I have said this week.
(CHEERS AND APPLAUSE)
Even -- even if they are not supporting me now, I support them.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
BERMAN: Sort of the Democratic side of the Democratic challenges and the big story there.
Patricia, the big story on the Republican side is Donald Trump. Look, you know, way back in June, we all said -- I said he was never going to get into the race, he got in. We all said, I said, he was never going to do well. He just won the New Hampshire primary decisively. He is not going anywhere. He is a force in this campaign.
And the question now as you head to South Carolina, as you head to the SEC, what's going to stop him?
MURPHY: Who knows what's going to stop him? I will tell what you could stop him is a little bit of organization among the establishment Republicans. If they could get together and decide which one of us is going to take this guy on.
Donald Trump does have a number of vulnerabilities. When I went to other candidates' events around New Hampshire, there is a deep anxiety about a Donald Trump nomination for Republicans when I was -- I was at Jeb Bush events, Marco Rubio events, anything for any other candidate except Donald Trump, registered Republicans and even independents were very worried about the possibility of a Trump nomination.
If this field starts to sort itself out, and you could start to see that happening a little bit, if it looks like Christie didn't doesn't go on to South Carolina, Kasich probably won't do well in South Carolina, if Marco Rubio is damaged to the point that he can't make a come back, you can start to see some consolidation. They can start to see a two-race. You're either going to pick Donald Trump or somebody who doesn't scream all the time.
So, there is energy, there is enthusiasm for Donald Trump. There is also a lot of anxiety and enthusiasm against Donald Trump. I don't think we want to read too much into his victory in New Hampshire other than the fact that he has a huge well of support among people who don't typically vote sometimes. He's got a lot of money but he's also got a lot of Republicans who don't want to see him get too far.
ROMANS: Donald Trump the clear winner last night. I mean, just remarkable that margin. I will tell you who is waking up very, very happy this morning -- John Kasich is waking up very happy and he is clearly on a high and he's telling all of his supporters, look, this is -- enjoy this. This is a moment in your life that will never -- you know, never be repeated, this running for president and having such a surprise in New Hampshire.
Chris Frates, 16 percent John Kasich. He is the guy who emerged from that pack of governors.
FRATES: He did and he was saying all week that he thought he was running second. Even though the polls showed all week that he wasn't, he came out and he had the data analytics to prove it. They invested very, very heavily on finding their voters, locating them and getting them out.
In fact, they had -- they took polls among all their voters and saw who were they competing with? Who else had the same level of support as John Kasich among their competition and then they went and found out what would push them over the edge to John Kasich. They were able to find those folks, particularly after the Sunday -- the Saturday debate, they saw a lot of movement after that Saturday debate, they went back to those voters where they had about equal support among their competition and said, OK, Marco Rubio, for instance, you were a voter, you were with Rubio, you're worried about experience, they didn't rag on Rubio so much, but they did say here is why John Kasich is more experienced, he's been in Congress, he's served as a governor, he's been in the private sector.
So, they were targeting those voters they thought they could shift their votes very late and felt like their projections all the way through this evening were right on. They were running a couple hundred votes ahead of where they thought they would be. John Kasich took that old school town hall, did over 100 town halls throughout New Hampshire, got all over this state and really got to know the people of New Hampshire.
[04:40:02] It's paying off well for him. But again, big questions about whether or not he can translate that into a national campaign, guys.
BERMAN: I'm a big fan of focusing on the winners, Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump but on the Republican side I think there's another major development which could have really just as big of an impact going forward and that's the Marco Rubio -- implosion is too strong of a word but whiff, right? The missed opportunity here for Marco Rubio after finishing third in Iowa, he thought the establishment was winding up about him, FOX News couldn't say enough nice things about him.
And then he had the debate performance and the bottom fell out, Josh. And now, you have this muddled mess out of the New Hampshire where things aren't more clear. I think they are less clear with more candidates than we thought heading into South Carolina.
ROGIN: Well, that's right. Marco Rubio seemed to be the one who would consolidate the establishment around. And not just that -- remember, Marco Rubio's narrative, his explanation of why he can win is that he's supposed to bridge all the Republican Party under one roof, evangelicals, the conservatives and the establishment. And there is a case for that but he is not making that case effectively. You saw him raise the stakes for his own performance in the next debate.
So, he's doubling down and he has one chance left to prove that he can be the guy that can carry the mantle and if he messes that up, then he's in real trouble.
BERMAN: His strategy was three, two, one. Third in Iowa, second in New Hampshire, first in South Carolina. It's not three, five, one. I mean, it's hard to bounce back.
(CROSSTALK)
ROGIN: I think that's right. And I think eventually, if you want to be president, you're Marco Rubio, you have to win a state. You can't win the nomination without winning a state.
If South Carolina is not going to be that state and that looks a lot less likely than it did last night or even two days ago, then he's got to come up with something else, and that's his big problem.
In the end, though, I keep coming back to this, if you look at the establishment candidates there is not really a stronger one out there, right? You have the Ted Cruz wing and then who is going to replace Marco Rubio for the establishment? Jeb Bush? Kasich who doesn't have a ground game in South Carolina? Chris Christie who might drop out tomorrow?
I don't see it. I don't know where you go.
ROMANS: These are early days. That's what's so exciting. There is a big field, that's still exciting. Look, these other states don't look like Iowa and New Hampshire. So, the whole story line can change again.
BERMAN: But my friend John King has this fun fact.
ROMANS: What is this fun fact?
BERMAN: No Republican candidate has won the nomination since 1968 in the modern primary system without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire. It hasn't happened. Not ever in the modern system. So, that means if history holds, it's either Ted Cruz or Donald Trump.
ROMANS: Wow.
Big night for Bernie Sanders. Big night for Donald Trump. No question.
BERMAN: All right, guys. Stick around. There's some more to talk about. There's so much more to focus on. There's so much more to look forward to.
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, they will debate tomorrow night. It is PBS NewsHour Debate. We are simulcasting it. You can see it right here on CNN.
This debate is in Milwaukee. Watch it here on CNN 9:00 p.m. or your local PBS stations.
I'm going to watch it on CNN. It should be exciting.
ROMANS: It should be very exciting.
Voters breaking down their decisions to CNN, why Sanders, why Trump were their choices and how the night's losers are planning to come back if at all.
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ROMANS: The beautiful things about exit polls is you can really, really see what voters were thinking and saying in New Hampshire. They're shedding light on just how Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders won so decisively that primary last night.
They paint a picture of a Democratic Party divided by gender, divided by age and a Republican Party deeply dissatisfied, shall we say angry with the federal government.
BERMAN: Yes, you can use the word angry. ROMANS: Angry is the word. Sanders had the overwhelming support of
every Democratic age group under 65 and a majority of female voters, while on the Republican side, Trump won with voters of nearly every stripe. He won conservatives, he won moderates, he won first time voters, and he won people who have previously voted. He won everyone.
BERMAN: He won everyone, except -- except understands the problems of people like me, which again --
ROMANS: Because there is no one like Donald Trump.
BERMAN: Because it's Donald Trump.
All right. We're going to dig through these numbers right now. Let's bring back our panels. We're joined now by CNN politics digital reporter, Eric Bradner, CNN investigative correspondent Chris Frates, "Daily Beast" columnist Patricia Murphy, and CNN political analyst Josh Rogin, a columnist for "Bloomberg View".
I'm breathless because I'm overwhelmed with the numbers here. I am, you know, stricken with data as we say.
Patricia, there are two numbers that jump off the page to me with Hillary Clinton. Number one is female voters, she lost. She lost women voters in New Hampshire by 11 points, right? That is big for Hillary Clinton.
And the other thing is the issue of trust. When you ask voters who wins on being honest and trustworthy, she just -- she doesn't even register. I mean, it was practically unanimous for Bernie Sanders which is a very astounding thing to see.
She's got to change both of these if she's going to win anywhere. Yes, she may have advantages in states with more minority voters and where just Democrats vote, but unless she turns these numbers around it ain't going to happen.
MURPHY: Yes, it's not going to happen especially because the majority of voters in Democratic primaries are women. So, if you are losing the women's vote, you're not going to win the Democratic primary, the numbers just don't add up. I think, you know, we're talking so much about issues, I think it's really important also to talk about Hillary Clinton's style.
Her -- I attended a number of her events. They were just relatively business like, a little bit perfunctory, a little bit like a board meeting, and you go to Sanders events and they are a cross between a revival and Mardi Gras, and people are losing their minds, and they are so passionate about this man.
Hillary Clinton, I don't know how she does it but she needs to get some sort of plug into that. She is just not inspiring confidence and hope, and there's just no inspiration behind that campaign right now. It's not attracting voters.
I think if it comes down to a Democrat versus a Republican in a general election, voters are often choosing the lesser of two evils. Hillary Clinton could very well be the lesser of two evils if she's going up against somebody who independents have a lot of distrust about, if somebody like Donald Trump were to win the nomination, she might feel like she is in a good position or Ted Cruz. But Hillary Clinton right now, I think she is just losing -- she is just missing a little bit of magic.
[04:50:03] I think voters right now are looking for inspiration. They're hurting so much in their daily lives. Bernie Sanders is delivering that, even Donald Trump is delivering that. He is telling them a hopeful message, Donald Trump is if you can believe it, not only will he make the country great again, he's like I'm going to make you proud to be an American.
That's a message that works and we aren't hearing anything like that from Hillary Clinton.
ROMANS: Josh, looking at these polls on the Republican side, the anger at the federal government, the anger at their own party. You see that GOP revolt, that rebellion in those numbers.
ROGIN: Right. There's a big battle going on inside the Republican Party and the establishment is losing that battle.
Now, if you look in past years the last time the establishment lost the Republican nomination was when Barry Goldwater took it. It's been a while. This year is unlike any other year, and the Trump campaign has been so disruptive that this could be the year that that happens again. I mean, if you drill down it's really not about the policy issues themselves.
Trump's policies, he does have them, he has advisors, he's doing all sorts of things behind the scenes, didn't really come out of speeches.
BERMAN: Build a wall.
ROGIN: Yes, his plan to defeat ISIS -- bomb the oil and take the oil. Which one? You can't bomb it and take it. So, it doesn't really have to make sense.
So, when you get the candidates who are really good on policy, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, it just doesn't work.
Hillary Clinton faces a similar problem. She's a great record, she's secretary of state, she knows everything there is no know about foreign policy. Bernie Sanders doesn't want to talk about foreign policy and nobody seems to mind.
So, in this very disruptive, very weird, very unique election year, the policy wonks are just not selling it and that leaves another opening for the disruptive anger-driven emotional candidates.
BERMAN: Talking about the one weak point for Donald Trump, which he understands people like you. For Bernie Sanders, look, the exit polls with Bernie Sanders were overwhelmingly positive for him. You really have to dig deep to find areas where there could be problems. One of them was on Democratic voters. If you look at just registered Democrats who voted in the Democratic primary, he actually ties Hillary Clinton. It's 49/49.
Eric, you've been covering the Sanders campaign going forward. We've got about 20 seconds left in this segment. Does Bernie Sanders know he's got a problem here? He's got to start winning more Democrats if he's going to win.
BRADNER: He does. He's spending his entire campaign on the idea of expanding the electorate, bringing new people in. If you go to his events, they look like the future of Democratic Party, but perhaps not the coalition of voters that wins a primary or wins an election.
He's definitely making an effort to make inroads with those Democratic voters but he's also telling people point-blank that if he doesn't get big voter turnout, if he doesn't expand the electorate, bring young people in, the people he's winning five to one, he can't win elections. And that's going to continue to be the case.
So, his campaign is going to be targeting caucus and primary states where independents, new voters, can register on caucus day, on primary day and he's going to try to rack up delegates in those states, John.
ROMANS: All right. Everyone stick with us, because a lot more to discuss here. We will drill down on the money part of that exit polling, folks.
Time for an early start on your money. The top issue for primary voters in New Hampshire, the economy and jobs. Exit polling shows that's what 32 percent of Republican voters said was the most important issue, the economy and jobs, that's more than government spending, more than terrorism, more than immigration.
And guess who won big among that group? Trump won big among the group who say economy and jobs were most important.
On the Democratic side, economy and jobs also high. Income inequality, a close second, Bernie Sanders has been scoring very high on that front, and then healthcare, then terrorism.
New Hampshire's economy, by the way, strong. South Carolina poses a different economic challenges for these candidates. Unemployment in New Hampshire 3.1 percent, one of the lowest nationwide. South Carolina 5.5 percent, that is above the national average. Median household income in New Hampshire, about $20,000 above the national level, South Carolina it's almost $10,000 below that mark.
Interesting how each of these states is going to pose a different set of metrics for these candidates.
BERMAN: Absolutely.
All right. Much more on the New Hampshire primary ahead. Such big news there. There is other news as well. Could criminal charges be coming in the Flint water crisis? We have new developments this morning. That's next.
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[04:57:22] BERMAN: All right. New this morning, the Zika virus may be causing eye abnormalities in infants. Researchers studied 29 kids at a Brazilian hospital, all of them infected with the virus and suffering from brain damage. Ten of those also had damage to their retina or optic nerve. It is not clear yet how badly their vision is impaired.
Doctors say they've ruled out all other possible causes of the lesions and tissue damage that they're finding right now in those babies' eyes.
ROMANS: A Democratic House hearing on the flint water crisis will go on today without Michigan Governor Rick Snyder. Snyder says he cannot testify because he has to deliver a budget presentation to his state legislature.
Meanwhile, a special investigator for Michigan's attorney general is not ruling out criminal charges in connection with the lead contamination crisis. He's even suggesting involuntary manslaughter charges could be on the trouble.
BERMAN: It's interesting. With the Democratic debate there on March 6th, the CNN Democratic debate, the national spotlight will be on Flint I think for the next and a half like it has never been before. It will be interesting how quickly change comes there.
All right. A sobering warning about the likelihood of an ISIS attack on U.S. soil. Lieutenant General Vincent Stewart, the director of Defense Intelligence Agency, told lawmakers that ISIS will probably attempt a direct attack on the U.S. in the coming year. James Clapper, the director of national intelligence says ISIS operative are taking advantage of the refugee crisis in Syria to cross borders into Europe using phony passports.
ROMANS: FBI technicians cannot figure out how to unlock encrypted data on a cellphone owned by the terrorist couple who killed 14 people in San Bernardino. They've been working on this for two months now. Investigators are trying to retrace the movements of Syed Farook and his wife Tashfeen Malik. And they believe the data on that phone could contain critical clues.
BERMAN: Interests there. So much interesting happening in New Hampshire -- big wins for Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. We have new reaction when EARLY START continues when?
ROMANS: Right now.
BERMAN: You got it.
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ROMANS: All right. Our breaking news this morning, Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders winning the New Hampshire primary, landslide victories over their competitors. How they pulled it off, two very different revolutions and what this means for the presidential race going forward.
Good morning. Welcome to EARLY START. I'm Christine Romans.
BERMAN: I'm John Berman. Great to see you this morning. What a morning. Wednesday, February 10th. It is 5:00 a.m. in the East.
And, man, just huge victories in New Hampshire for the outsider candidates, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders. Raise your hand if you thought this was going to happen in June. None of you have your hands raised right now.
With about 92 percent of the votes tallied in the state's first in the nation primary, Donald Trump is 19 points ahead of John Kasich there. Nearly -- more than two to one over Kasich.
