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Early Start with John Berman and Zoraida Sambolin

Counting Votes in Alaska with Trump and Cruz Neck and Neck; Big Super Tuesday Wins for Trump, Clinton; The Path Forward for Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio; Sanders Stays in the Race. Aired 2-3a ET

Aired March 02, 2016 - 02:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

KATE BOLDUAN, CNN ANCHOR: Good evening or good morning, depending on where it is.

[02:00:01] Welcome to a special edition of EARLY START. I'm Kate Bolduan.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: I'm John Berman. It is Wednesday, March 2nd, now the morning after Super Tuesday. We want to welcome all of our viewers here in the United States and around the world.

And indeed it was a Super Tuesday. More super for Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump. Trump won seven states so far -- Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Virginia and Vermont. We are still waiting on Alaska. They are counting right now, as we speak, in Alaska. And look at that. Just in the last few minutes, Ted Cruz pulled ahead in Alaska. We will watch that throughout the morning.

BOLDUAN: 249 votes ahead at the moment.

BERMAN: 249 votes ahead but it's gone back and forth. It's a nail- biter in Alaska.

Now, Donald Trump, after winning the seven states, instead of holding a victory rally, what did he do? He decided to hold a news conference and say that he is a candidate who can bring the party together.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I'm a unifier. I know people are going to find that a little bit hard to believe, but believe me, I am a unifer. Once we get all of this finished, I'm going to get after on person -- that's Hillary Clinton, on the assumption she's allowed to run, which is a big assumption. I don't know that she's going to be allowed to run.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: All right, Donald Trump, not the only Republican in the win column. Ted Cruz carried his home state of Texas. Also scored a really big important win in Oklahoma as well. And Marco Rubio won the caucuses in Minnesota, his first victory since voting began this year. His only victory. Again though, I should note, we are still waiting an Alaska. BOLDUAN: And on the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton locks and wins

in seven states across the south and a big pickup in the northeast -- Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas and Virginia.

Bernie Sanders picked up four wins in Vermont, also Oklahoma, Colorado and Minnesota.

Clinton, talking to supporters as the results coming in, went after the Republican field.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: It's clear tonight that the stakes in this election have never been higher. And the rhetoric we're hearing on the other side has never been lower. Trying to divide America between us and them is wrong and we're not going to let it work.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BOLDUAN: Let's get first to CNN Politics and CNNMoney reporter M.J. Lee. She's taking a look at the state of play. As John said, it was a Super Tuesday, maybe more super than some. But a lot of these candidates leaving Super Tuesday with a different narrative this morning.

M.J. LEE, CNN POLITICS REPORTER: That's right, guys. I think the two big headlines coming out of tonight are that Donald Trump had a very good night and that Hillary Clinton had a very good night. And I think we were expecting both of those outcomes heading into Super Tuesday.

And, look, I think tonight was all about Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton showing they both have a national coalition and a broad base of support that can win them the nominations, and also the support that they can take to the general election in November.

And Donald Trump, after winning the early states of New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, tonight showing that he can win a more moderate state like Massachusetts and then more deeply conservative states and evangelical-heavy states across the south.

And then for Hillary Clinton, who had more of a rocky start in the early states, because Bernie Sanders really gave her a run for her money, she was also able to prove in part, and in large part, I should say, by really capturing the minority vote, including Hispanics, among African-Americans, showing that she also has a national coalition.

So I can tell you, Trump and Clinton, and both of their campaigns, are probably happy after the results of tonight and really, after tonight, eyeing the general election.

BOLDUAN: M.J., stay with us. Let's bring in now Josh Rogin, CNN's political analyst and Bloomberg View columnist, as well as Dylan Byers, our senior reporter for media and politics, and national political reporter, Maeve Reston, and Ron Brownstein, senior political analyst -- CNN senior political analyst, and senior editor for "The Atlantic".

So as M.J. said, big night for Hillary Clinton. Big not for Donald Trump? Ron, where did you see the support Donald Trump? What surprised you about the big win for Donald Trump? How big was it?

RON BROWNSTEIN, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL ANALYST: You know, if anyone else had won Alabama and Vermont, Arkansas and Massachusetts, not to mention Georgia and Virginia, we would be saying this race is over. That was something that Mitt Romney could not do in 2012 when he was the nominee. Hat was something that John McCain could not do in 2008 when he was the nominee. No one else in recent times has really been able to bridge that geographic divide, and it's because Donald Trump's support does not fall along the usual lines we have seen in Republican politics, which have usually divided the party along lines of ideology and whether or not you're an evangelical.

[02:05:05] His support really cuts the party in a different direction -- whether you are a white-collar, college-educated, or not. In every state, Donald Trump is running extremely well among blue collar Republicans. In most of these states he was 47 percent to 50 percent, which is un -- striking in a field this large. Generally speaking, he does not run as well among the college Republicans, but no one has been able to consolidate that. And that story is true, you know, no matter where you are in the country.

What's different, though, this year, is that because there is so much resistance to Donald Trump among the leadership of the party, a race that normally would I think be on the brink of being over tomorrow, people are still looking for a way to continue it and take it forward. The question is can they find a plausible path to stopping him?

BERMAN: Vermont, Alabama, Massachusetts, Georgia -- Ron Brownstein, I thought you were going to sing a Woody Guthrie song there.

(LAUGHTER)

BERMAN: Maeve, so that's a look at the Republicans. Give us a headline for the Democratic race. Hillary Clinton with big wins in a lot of states, but Bernie Sanders on the board.

MAEVE RESTON, CNN NATIONAL POLITICAL REPORTER: Absolutely on the board. And he's made it clear this race is going to go on for quite some time. When you look at the delegate numbers coming out of tonight, Bernie Sanders did not have a bad night at all. You know, at least four wins that he's got up on the board. And he has really also pulled in a huge haul in February, $42 million, and really will be able to keep this race going.

At the same time, he showed his limitations tonight, doing well in states that typically are traditionally white voters. Whereas Hillary Clinton really showed her dominance among African-American voters, and looking in Texas, she really showed a huge lead among Latino voters, showing that she does well in a traditional Democratic stronghold, and he really has not yet been able to demonstrate that he is the candidate who can represent all of those groups that are traditionally in the Democratic camp.

BOLDUAN: Josh, Marco Rubio, he has a win in the win column. He has a mark in the win column. This is a big night for him.

JOSH ROGIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Yes. Marco Rubio beat expectations, which is the crucial thing.

BERMAN: By not losing everywhere?

ROGIN: Exactly. You can only win your first state once. And he's done it. And that will eliminate Ted Cruz's line that anyone who hasn't won a state should drop out.

BOLDUAN: Yes, he seemed to have already quickly modified that. He's the only candidate that's beaten Donald Trump in three states.

ROGIN: Exactly. But there are other signs, good signs for Marco Rubio, that his campaign is putting out not-so-subtly today. They say that if you look at the polls, compared to the results, that Marco Rubio beat the polls, especially in Minnesota and Virginia. Also, Ted Cruz beat the expectations in Oklahoma. So, what we're seeing is a narrative of slippage, the fact that Donald Trump has polls and then he's not beating those polls. And that perhaps presents an opportunity.

Marco Rubio is about to be bolstered by billions of billions of dollars in super PAC and non-profit organization money. We saw some of that in the last two weeks, but from now until March 15th, we have two huge groups that are now ready -- the Marco Rubio donors have come off the fence. They're in the game. And they've skin in the game. So nobody really knows what will happen; nobody knows if that will have an effect. But for the first time, we're going to see billions of dollars in anti-Trump ads, and those are mostly by Marco Rubio's donors. So that's his play from here until March 15th.

BERMAN: Dylan Byers, that's the most glass half-full analysis of one win out of 11.

(CROSSTALK)

BERMAN: But that's what the Rubio people are saying. You know, I'm not picking on Josh. That's absolutely what the Rubio people and a lot of establishment Republicans are saying right now.

And, Dylan, the funny thing is, for every Rubio person who says that, Ted Cruz should be able to say that three times more?

DYLAN BYERS, CNN SENIOR REPORTER FOR MEDIA & POLITICS: Right, that's absolutely true. I mean, the Rubio campaign has sort of been a study in how many times can you spin a loss. The Ted Cruz campaign has been a study that as well.

You know, like you said, in any other Republican primary season, the wins that Donald Trump has pulled off, the margins of victory that he's pulled off, the broad base of support among various groups within the Republican Party, he should be the nominee. The reason he's not obviously is because he's effectively trying to take over -- stage a hostile takeover of the Republican Party. And there are a lot of establishment voices who want to back Rubio and make sure that doesn't happen. Meanwhile, Ted Cruz of course making the case that he's the only actually -- the only candidate who's actually beat Donald Trump consistently in multiple states.

But, look, I think for Rubio, he's obviously looking forward to March 15th. He's looking forward to those winner-take-all states, Florida, Ohio. If he can make wins there, sure, he has a case. But right now, look at Florida, his home state. He's trailing Donald Trump by 15 to 20 points in the latest poll, so it's very hard to see what his path forward is if he can't change the game in the next two weeks.

[02:10:00] BERMAN: Yes, beating the polls in Florida don't bring you any delegates.

(CROSSTALK)

BOLDUAN: You actually have to beat candidates, not just beat polls. You can really kill those polls.

Ron, Arkansas -- take Arkansas for example. That was part of Ted Cruz's firewall in the south, supposed firewall. Add to that Georgia, Tennessee. I mean, what are Republican voters saying here?

BROWNSTEIN: Well, right. I think what you're really talking about -- I want to kind of demur a little bit for some of the things that were said. I think you really saw limits for Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio tonight, especially Ted Cruz, even though he won two states There are 13 states now with exit polls. Only in two of them has he gotten above 18 percent among voters who are not evangelicals. And the big, heavy evangelical states mostly voted tonight -- and Kate, as you're suggesting -- he didn't win most of them. He didn't win South Carolina, he didn't win Arkansas, he didn't win Alabama. He won Oklahoma. And the three states that he's won have all had at least 63 percent of the vote cast from evangelicals. And if you're going to win 20 percent or less of evangelicals everywhere, I think that die is pretty cast. There are very few places for him to go from this place forward that are natural terrain for him other than places like Louisiana and Mississippi.

So I think he is in the same position that Huckabee was in '08 and Santorum was in 2012 where he can't advance beyond the evangelical beachhead.

And then if you're Marco Rubio, I think the challenge, what you're seeing here, that someone who in South Caorlina, when he was standing on a stage with Nikki Haley and Tim Scott, looked like he might be Gary Hart, the kind of candidate of a new generation, he really looks more at this point like Lamar Alexander, circa 1996, where he kind of has a little bit of support everywhere but not deep enough support almost anywhere to win. And Virginia was the place I think that he really had to put a stake, because it was an electorate that was built for him. He in fact did well in northern Virginia. He won college graduates in Virginia with 38 percent of the vote, but did not win them by enough. And that's kind of the story here -- Donald Trump's dominance among

the blue collar side of the party is so great that even if you beat him narrowly among college graduates, that's not enough. Someone has to match his dominance on the other side. And so far no one has shown they can do that.

BERMAN: You have a lot of people joking -- there were a lot of people joking overnight that Marco Rubio, the one area in Virginia that he won was inside the Beltway. Literally, inside the Beltway. Politicians supporting Marco Rubio.

Guys, stand by, because if you are awake right now, the one state you care about more than any other is Alaska. It is the one state we have not yet called and we have an important update. We are counting votes in Alaska right now. CNN with a reporter in Anchorage. Paul Vercammen I believe joins us by phone. Paul, you're counting the ballots. What do you know?

PAUL VERCAMMEN, CNN CORRESPONDENT (on the phone): I'm going to just read right off the screen to you, John. Hang on.

Here are the totals -- 9, 683 in. I'm going to start alphabetically. Carson, 10.2 percent of the vote. Ted Cruz, 35.5 percent of the vote. Kasich, 4.8 percent of the vote. Rubio, 6.8 percent of the vote. 16 -- my bad, thank you, as I read literally off a screen. And Donald Trump, 32.7 percent of the vote.

That's with 9,683 projection. We know they are shattering records here in Alaska tonight in terms of turnout. Right now, it is difficult to gauge what percentage of the turnout this is. It looks like we had one prediction from our GOP insider here that we could be around 25,000 votes. Not sure. Others say they thought they had exceeded vote totals by a good 50 percent at the precincts. We'll just have to see.

We were in Wasilla and West Anchorage, where we saw this dynamic, energized turnout. In many instances, Democrats were switching over to Republicans just for the night so they could vote. And of course Alaskans have a lot of Independents. They are also voting for the GOP. As we said, it looks like record shattering turnout here in Alaska. 28 delegates at stake. They will divide these up. It's not winner-take-all. Back to you.

BOLDUAN: Paul, do they have expectation when they believe -- when they believe they'll have the counting all wrapped up this evening or into tomorrow?

VERCAMMEN: Welcome to Alaska and the trickle-in theory of votes. As you may or may not know, there are 40 districts, and some of them so remote that they literally will e-mail them in. We're going to go way for the west of the Aleutian Islands. We're going to go to the north. We know that they're going to hopefully be done here, well, maybe 45 minutes.

I'll literally ask you. When do you think you will be counting here? Midnight our time. That's 4:00 a.m. your time. So again, you'll just have to watch for the trickle-in theory, as Alaska and its 40 districts, many of them completely remote, just sort of come in vote by vote by vote. And then if you'll look at a screen right now, we're show this to you in a little bit. We're going to get a (INAUDIBLE) that's been clipped off (INAUDIBLE) that's probably a state (INAUDIBLE). We'll show you they are waiting for many of these have been not just filled in yet.

[02:15:00] BERMAN: Al right, Paul Vercammen for us in Anchorage, Alaska. This is in some ways a special Alaska edition of EARLY START. And these Super Tuesday results show, as you can see, they're going back and forth. Ted Cruz at 35.5 percent. Donald Trump at 32 points. A long way to go, but if Cruz were able to hang on here, you know, this would be his third state. His third state on Super Tuesday.

BOLDUAN: A win's a win's a win, especially in this Republican race, when they are counting -- well, actually in this Republican race, we've seen third place being a win, second place being a win. But a win is a win is a win.

This is one of the few state where they actually use sea planes to fly in the election results. I don't even know if that is actually true.

BERMAN: Fun fact.

BOLDUAN: No, I don't know. I made that up. I made that up as we go.

We're going to get back to it. But coming up for us, a huge night for Donald Trump, winning seven states. Does this now make him unstoppable? Ted Cruz says he has a plan to take down Trump, as long as pretty much everybody else in the race drops out. Where the battle heads next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Together, we have a choice. We are blessed with a deep, talented, honorable field. For the candidates, who have not yet won a state, who have not wracked up significant delegates, I ask you to prayerfully consider our coming together. Uniting.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BOLDUAN: Ted Cruz, speaking to reporters tonight, calling on the party to come together, uniting.

[02:20:00] And by come together and uniting, he means the other candidates not named Trump, they should drop out.

BERMAN: And other candidates not named Ted Cruz, either.

BOLDUAN: Right, I guess that too. Ted Cruz saying he is the only candidate that can beat, has beaten, and will beat Donald Trump. But Marco Rubio says tonight not so fast, as he gets his first primary win in Minnesota and he looks toward now his home state of Florida. And that comes up on March 15th.

BERMAN: Yes, either though -- can either Rubio or Cruz or John Kasich, for that matter, or Ben Carson, who's still in the race, can any of them defeat Trump at this point?

We're back with our all-star team of reporters and analysts who have been up all night around the country. M.J., I want to start with you. M.J. Lee, you know, Ted Cruz essentially saying everyone should drop out but me. At this point, as we sit here at 2:20 a.m. Eastern Time, no one else is dropping out.

LEE: Yes, no, no one else is dropping out. And frankly, I think everyone in the race is hoping that the strategy of, well, if everyone except Donald Trump drops out, I could be the person to challenge Donald Trump. And I don't think that's going to happen, as much as Ted Cruz would like that to happen.

But, look, it's interesting. Heading into his victory speech tonight, it was clear his message was going to be "I am the only person in this race who has beaten Donald Trump." Up until this point, he had beaten Trump in Iowa, in Texas and Oklahoma tonight, so that's three wins against Donald Trump. But then, as you pointed out, we got the results from Minnesota, the race there was called for Marco Rubio. And by that point, he had actually already made his I guess victory speech, even though he hadn't won that state yet.

The optics I thought for Marco Rubio were a little bit strange. I don't know if you all noticed this, but Rubio, again, made his speech before the race was called for him in Minnesota. This was a big moment for him. This was his first victory of the 2016 cycle. And I didn't feel that he seized on this. And I think this is going to be the perpetual problem and question for Marco Rubio -- when are you going to stop being the candidate who is the second place choice -- the second choice for voters? The candidate who is waiting behind Donald Trump, perhaps behind Ted Cruz as well, for the voters who are not interested in them, that they can turn to Marco Rubio? I think at some point his message really has to turn to "I can be a winner as well. I can be that first place guy," for the voters who are not interested in Donald Trump.

BOLDUAN: And for Ted Cruz, Maeve, if you're Ted Cruz tonight, this morning, where are you putting your focus? Where are you putting your money? Where are you changing your travel schedule, looking forward now?

RESTON: Well, I mean, he's got a couple opportunities, as Ron mentioned before, in some of these states coming up where he can, you know, states like Louisiana, where he can -- Mississippi -- potentially do well with very conservative voters, try to do better among evangelicals. Donald Trump beat him among evangelicals in a number of states tonight.

But I think for Ted Cruz, this was, you know, perhaps a better than expected night. He won with a decent margin in Texas, then put up that Oklahoma win as well. Hand he had some strong finished in other states, so he has a good number of delegates going in. But he doesn't have a lot of opportunities on the board coming up. So his path, to a lot of people, could look like a dead end.

BERMAN: Dylan Byers, I want to talk about Marco Rubio again here and the difference right now between Marco Rubio and Donald Trump in terms of delegates. If we can put up the board again, the delegates to date right now. I noticed before that CNN right now we have 302 for Donald Trump, 104 for Marco Rubio. Turns out that Marco Rubio, even though he won Minnesota, actually had a pretty bad night in terms of delegates.

BOLDUAN: Didn't get any; he didn't even meet the threshold in Texas.

BERMAN: Yes, blanked in Texas, which ends up being a very big deal. So 302, Dylan, to 104. That means he's more than Ohio plus Florida away from Donald Trump right now. Everybody's talking about these winner-take-all states where Marco Rubio could do well. He could win both, Ohio and Florida, and still trail Donald Trump. He's in a hole.

BYERS: Well, that's absolutely right. At the same time, wins in Ohio and Florida would at least put him back on the board and sort of recreate the narrative that he's the one best poised to take on Donald Trump, which of course is the narrative that Ted Cruz has taken.

I do want to jump on this point about Cruz doing better than expected tonight. He certainly did better than expected in the context of the last several weeks. But if you look at where the Cruz campaign hoped to be months ago, the south was his firewall. The south was where he was going to win big. So, now, sure, he's looking at states like Louisiana, he's looking at Mississippi, but having come out of the south with -- effectively losing the south to Donald Trump, it's very hard to see -- you know, that was supposed to be his strong point.

[02:05:04] It's very hard to see what his path going forward is, unless he can really turn this narrative that he's the only one who can beat Donald Trump into something that a lot of people rally behind. But of course the Republican establishment doesn't want to rally behind Ted Cruz, so I'm really not sure what the path forward is for Cruz.

BERMAN: All right, guys, stand by. There's a lot more to talk about. Namely, what the heck's going to happen to the Republican Party, because it is a serious, serious issue right now, with serious questions being raised.

That, plus, we're going to count more votes in Alaska. Alaska is still counting right now, neck and neck, the race right there. We'll give you the latest updates when we come back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

BERMAN: They are counting votes as we speak in Alaska, the one state not yet called. Look at that. This is a brand-new update. Ted Cruz, a whopping 149 votes ahead. We're not talking percentage (INAUDIBLE); we're talking actual human votes.

BOLDUAN: Human votes.

BERMAN: 149 votes ahead right now in Alaska.

[02:30:00] We will be counting there for some time. CNN's Paul Vercammen, live in anchorage, with the latest. Only CNN is in Anchorage. Paul, what's going on?

VERCAMMEN: We're going to show you in this very scientific way, the latest numbers. As we look right we've got 10,805 votes in. Again, we're going to go alphabetically. Ben Carson with 10 percent; Ted Cruz, 34 percent, moving on down, Kasich, 5 percent; Rubio, 17.4 percent, 33 percent for Donald Trump.

Still not in the so called Mat-Su Valley, that includes Wasilla, Sarah Palin country, and Palmer. Some here expect that they will go very hard for Ted Cruz. We'll have to see. We were in Wasilla earlier, as we told you, it was shoulder to shoulder, long lines, a lot of enthusiasm in Wasilla earlier tonight, And as these numbers start to trickle in, they're waiting for those numbers. Also, a couple of big precincts still out there. Lower Hillside, that's Anchorage, Middle Hillside, that is Anchorage.

Now how all of this will break down delegate-wise? Just the unscientific poll, again, here in talking to some of the folks at this table, it looks like it could be possibly, if it's a dead heat between Cruz and Trump, ten for Trump, ten for Cruz. Maybe Rubio picks up five. A lot of this remains to be seen. Of course you have to have 13 percent, correct me if I'm wrong, if you want to go ahead and grab a delegate from Alaska. So, right now it looks like he will not see any delegates go to Carson or Kasich based on that. And of course one thing to say about the delegates in Alaska and Hawaii, of course, they are going to have one long road trip, and perhaps I hope a fun one, to Cleveland. Back to you guys.

BERMAN: I remember hanging out with delegates in Minnesota in 2008, the Republican delegates I think I mentioned there. They are without a doubt the most fun-loving, happy people at these conventions. They get a great vacation to the continental U.S. Paul Vercammen, that's amazing, watching us count the votes right now in Alaska. Thanks so much.

BOLDUAN: 149 votes separating the top two right now. This could be a big moment for Ted Cruz. We'll be watching that as they come in.

So, after the biggest night in the election so far, did the results bring the clarity, any of the clarity that voters and the establishment have been looking for on both sides, really? Bernie Sanders says he's taking his campaign all the way to the convention. And Republicans, not named Donald Trump, they show no signs of backing out.

BERMAN: So, the question right now is, is the Republican party splintered? I think the answer to that, Josh Rogin, is yes, the Republican party right now clearly struggling with what to do going forward. You have -- you have people saying they will not vote for Donald Trump if he's the nominee.

ROGIN: Well, it's more than that, it's an existential crisis for the Republicans. And you see this, and the leadership comments about Donald Trump, both Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell speaking to their caucuses against the leading Republican candidate. It's almost unprecedented.

Mitch McConnell reportedly told his colleagues that if Trump were the nominee, he would drop him like a hot rock, right? That's pretty strong language. At the same time you have another part of the Republican party, the national security hawks, who cannot tolerate a Donald Trump presidency. They see a guy who talks about leaving ISIS to the Russians and so forth as -- as just someone that they can't trust with national security.

At the same time, you have a lot of Republicans who are about to come out and endorse Donald Trump, especially after this big win. We've seen reports that Rick Scott, the governor of Florida, is about to endorse Donald Trump, Newt Gingrich has been speaking very favorably about Donald Trump in recent days. So, there is a split, but the vast majority of elected Republicans are on the fence. They haven't said one way or the other. That's an untenable position, especially as the race comes to their states. If you -- if the race is coming to your state and you're a Republican, you're going to be under a lot of pressure to say, will you support Donald Trump or won't you? And that's what everyone is grappling with at this moment.

BOLDUAN: And absolutely reinforcing the point of on the fence, confused and splintered Republican party right now is when you look at some of the information coming out of these exit polls. You have a couple of states that Donald Trump won, Arkansas, Virginia is one of them, that he won these states tonight. But when you see it right there, would you -- are you satisfied if Donald Trump wins the nomination?

ROGIN: Right.

BOLDUAN: 54 percent of those said no. Ron, that is a head stretcher.

BROWNSTEIN: That is -- well -- well, it is -- it is a reminder that Donald Trump is a deeply polarizing figure. Less so in the Republican party, but even there, and certainly in the country at large.

Look, as John was kind of eluding to before, I mean, we have two parties going in different directions here. The Democratic dye has largely been cast. Bernie Sanders can't win white voters consistently enough or by a large enough margin to win any diverse states given Hillary Clinton's advantage among African-Americans. She's now actually won white voters in more states than he has and her advantage among African-Americans is overwhelming, 80 percent-plus, almost everywhere.

All of the big states -- on -- on the Democratic side are heavily diverse, and given these patterns, he simply is not going to be able to win any of them. So, that has a pretty clear trajectory where that's going. On the Republican said, as we said before, in a normal year with any other candidate, someone who could win both Vermont and Massachusetts on the one hand and Arkansas and Georgia on the other, you would say they are the nominee. [02:35:18] But Donald Trump represents such a dramatic change of

Republican views and positions on many issues that there is a sense among many in the party that this amounts to a hostile takeover. And I think what you're going to see is money and incentive for candidates to stay in much longer than they would have in a normal race, trying to find any way, if not to beat him individually, collectively deny him that first ballot majority and then see where it goes from there.

BERMAN: You could make the case that actually the bigger field is the way to go, right? If John Kasich could win Ohio somehow, if Marco Rubio could win Florida somehow, if you split the votes and make it impossible for Donald Trump to pick them up...

BOLDUAN: Yes, you deny Trump the nominee.

BERMAN: Maybe that's the way to get him. M.J., I was just reading, you had a great piece on CNN.com that I think posted a short time ago with some killer quotes from Republican insiders like Tim Pawlenty and Trent Lott who are just, you know, terrified right now with the direction this is all going.

LEE: Yes, that's right. I think when Josh described this as an existential crisis for the Republican party, that is not an exaggeration. The establishment Republicans, party leaders, party insiders that I have spoken to over the last several days, they are using words like catastrophic, cataclysmic, the end of the Republican party as we know it. I mean, these are very alarmist, you know, alarmist rhetoric that we're hearing from members of the Republican part.

I spoke to Tim Pawlenty for this piece who is supporting Marco Rubio, by the way. He said that this is -- this moment in the party is like seeing an airplane and the airplane represents the Republican party. We're seeing pieces of the surface starting to come off the plane and now we are wondering whether the wing or the engine will come off next.

So, we are seeing the Republican party extremely fractured because for a long time, I think, the, you know, members of the party did not know what to do about Donald Trump and what to do about his rise.

BOLDUAN: Right.

LEE: And now they are confronting a situation where this is right in front of them now, right? He has won all of these states, he has dominated Super Tuesday. It sure looks like he is likely going to be the nominee, and party has not come to terms with how are we going to fight him and stop him?

BOLDUAN: Well, when you talk about coming to terms, I mean -- what Lindsey Graham, senator from South Carolina who did no love lost with Donald Trump, he even said tonight that it might be coming to a point where the Republican party may need to get behind Ted Cruz in order...

BERMAN: You know that pains him to say that. BOLDUAN: ... to stop Donald Trump. If you know anything about --

about Lindsey Graham, that is not something that you would ever think would come out of his mouth. That's a huge statement, Maeve.

RESTON: Yes, I mean, those two can't stand each other and haven't been able to for some time. But I think, you know, what's so interesting, as M.J. was talking about, is that the party is now at this moment where we're going to see a lot of these donors and establishment Republicans go really hard after Donald Trump over these next two weeks, sort of thinking that this is their final moment to really knock him out.

You know, you obviously have the anti-Trump Super PAC that was talking to donors today about how they're going to do that. But the real question is, does that just end up helping Hillary Clinton in the end? You know, I mean, it's so clear that there's a huge disconnect between these establishment Republicans and these voters who are turning out in droves to support Donald Trump at the polls. And when you have that kind of disconnect in the party, it really is a crisis that could, you know, that could end up handing the presidency to Hillary Clinton.

BOLDUAN: Absolutely. Guys, stand by, much more to discus. Coming up, as Maeve mentioned, Hillary Clinton, we're going to be talking about Hillary Clinton. A big night for her, winning 7 of the 11 states up for grabs for Democrats. What's the path forward, though, and why did the victory speech start sounding a little bit more like Bernie Sanders this evening?

[02:39:12] That's coming up next.

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SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: What I have said is that this campaign is not just about electing a president. It is about making a political revolution. And what that revolution is about is bringing millions of millions of people into the political process.

(END VIDEOCLIP)

BOLDUAN: That was Bernie Sanders speaking to supporters in his home state, Vermont, his first of four victories of the night. Hillary Clinton, though, had the bigger night of the two on the Democratic said, winning seven states.

BERMAN: Let's bring back our all-star panel to discuss this. And you know, Dylan, one of the most striking things, when you look on how Hillary Clinton won, it's how she won in other states like South Carolina, and Nevada, as well. Look at the African-American vote in the states of Alabama and Georgia.

In Alabama, Hillary Clinton won 92 percent of the black vote, 93 percent now. In Georgia she won 83 percent of the -- and now it's 85. (CROSSTALK)

BERMAN: What happened, just so you know, is these exit polls update throughout the evening, so sometimes the numbers change right before our very eyes. But they're even bigger now, 85 percent in Georgia, 93 percent in Alabama, Dylan. You know, the African-American vote so crucial in putting together the Democratic coalition, so crucial as you move through these primary states. And there are plenty of black votes to be had in Illinois, plenty in Michigan as well, and plenty in Ohio. These are all states coming up.

BYERS: No, it's extremely crucial and there's no question that she is short of support among the vast majority of Democratic African American voters. Obviously we remember the big narrative coming out of Iowa and New Hampshire was can Bernie Sanders actually pick up support among minority groups.

BOLDUAN: Right.

BYERS: Among Hispanics, among African-Americans who are so key to the Democratic party. And the answer seems to be like, yes he can pick up a few, but he -- but -- but not nearly as many as Hillary Clinton can, and I think that's going to go a long way toward putting Sanders' campaign to rest. Certainly not tonight, maybe two weeks from now, maybe a little while after that.

And if you look at the exit polls coming out of all the states, what you see is that she has broadened her support, not just among Latinos, African-Americans, she's broadened her support across age groups, across income. She's doing much better across the board.

[02:45:02] The only area that she hasn't been able to pick up is the 18 to 29-year-old vote, which Sanders picks up handily in every single state except for Alabama.And that, of course, continues to raise questions about the sort of enthusiasm gap with younger voters.

BOLDUAN: Yeah, and you see that there in Massachusetts. Sanders got 65 percent between 18 and 29-year-olds. And that is a state that Hillary Clinton won. I mean, that is definitely a soft spot, if you -- at the very least, that Hillary Clinton has here and has all along.

But -- Do you see her -- how does she appeal to those -- to that part of the Bernie Sanders support, Maeve, without -- I don't know -- without alienating them at the very same time?

RESTON: Well, and in some ways, you know, the best thing that Hillary Clinton has going for her here is Donald Trump. Right? She's really started to kind of refine her message to talk about there needing to be more, you know, love and happiness and togetherness in America. She is trying to unite the party against Trump. And that may help her to some extent, you know, pull in some of these younger voters.

But I mean, this is a huge problem for her, her enthusiasm gap. And one that she's going to have to spend the rest of the year working on if she actually does pull off the nomination. The one person who can really help her with this is potentially is Barack Obama, of course, once he gets out on the campaign trail. You know, he really could help her bring together those two parts of the party that she has not been able to unify yet.

BERMAN: Ron, as you look ahead in the next few states that vote, we have Michigan a week from now, we have a big debate Sunday night here at CNN in Flint, Michigan. You know Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders there. How does it shape up? Based on what you saw tonight, in Super Tuesday, again, a broad range of states here, how does the map look for her?

BROWNSTEIN: You know, in some ways, I think the most revealing state was Massachusetts, right? Because it was a state where Bernie Sanders ran even with Hillary Clinton among white voters, it's a state, of course, you know, neighboring Vermont. But Her support among minority voters pushed her over the top. That's the challenge he faces. Every large state on the Democratic side is a diverse state. There is not a large state. California, New York, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Illinois. Ohio. Go down the list. They're all substantial minority populations.

And the challenge -- Bernie Sanders has done better in this race than anyone expected, including probably his own team, because he has been able to move beyond the beachhead of simply relying on young voters and upper middle class whites. He is competitive for working class whites. But he is not able to establish enough of an advantage among those white voters to overcome what is a Hillary Clinton tsunami among African-Americans. I believe she has been above 70 percent among African-Americans in every state. And above 80 percent in almost every state.

And so when you're looking at that kind of advantage, you know, it's some ways the reverse of 2008. In 2008 she cumulatively won white voters by 16 points. She won Hispanic voters by 26 points. And she lost because Barack Obama won 80 percent of African-Americans. And now we are seeing her do that and not having nearly that kind of deficit among the other groups. So very tough math for Bernie Sanders. They do believe -- one quick point -- They do believe that they may be able to make more inroads among African-Americans outside the South than in the South. That is going to be tested very quickly as we go, as you said, in Michigan, Illinois and Ohio in the next couple weeks.

BERMAN: We'll learn that very soon. Guys, stand by. Why? Because we have an important update from Alaska, the one state still counting votes. We're going to go to Alaska live right after the break.

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[02:52:25] BERMAN: All right. 2:52 a.m. on the East Coast. All eyes on Alaska right now. They are still counting and look at this, 60 percent of the precincts reporting Ted Cruz has pull ahead by 314 votes.

Want to go live. CNN's Paul Vercammen is in Anchorage. Paul, what's the latest?

VERCAMMEN: All right, Kate and John. Once again, we're going to go ahead and go to the screen. They're literally inputting the numbers behind me as we speak and as we look at the bottom, here are your total votes. 13,595 in. We'll give it to you in percentages. Carson with 10 percent. Cruz with 35.8 percent. We have Kasich with 4.5 percent. Rubio with 16.2. And Donald Trump at 33.5 percent.

Looking at the screen, some of the districts still not reporting. A lot of the Mat-Su Valley, including Wasilla, the Sarah Palin stronghold. And we have some of the bigger neighborhoods, affluent neighborhoods, hillside neighborhoods in Anchorage that are not in yet. These votes still coming in right now.

And again, reminding you, the delegates proportional here. So right now the estimate that we had earlier, as we told you, is maybe 10 for Cruz, 10 for Trump if they were to tie, toss a little -- 5 more for Rubio, just remains to be seen as the numbers come in to us here in Alaska where the lights are still on and everyone is celebrating democracy in action.

Back to you, Kate, John.

BOLDUAN: The lights are still on here. That's right. We're going to stay on until we get those Alaska results. That's for sure. Paul Vercammen in Anchorage for us. Paul, thank you very much. We are waiting for those numbers -- for that all to come in.

Josh, 28 delegates at stake. Proportional, as they all are on the Republican side right now. This could be a third pickup for Ted Cruz tonight.

ROGIN: That's exactly right. I mean the headline here is that every delegate counts because we're in that proportional phase where even though Donald Trump is going to win seven -- at least seven states, he's not going to be getting many more delegates than Ted Cruz. He could be within 20 or 30 delegates of Ted Cruz. Marco Rubio is going to be down about another 100 delegates. So that's a problem for Marco Rubio.

But again, the game here is to prevent Trump from getting to that magic number, 1,237. If he gets there, it's over. So that's the most important thing. So every delegate that everybody gets is one that Donald Trump doesn't get. And that keeps this going longer and longer. And that's good for everybody but Trump.

BERMAN: You know, M.J., I do not think it is lost on anyone that Sarah Palin, the former governor of Alaska, the former nominee of the republican vice presidency, that she endorsed Donald Trump. If Ted Cruz manages to win in Alaska, I imagine, M.J., that'd be very gratifying for the Cruz folks who would have wanted that Palin endorsement.

[02:55:02] LEE: Yeah, I'm sure that would be a huge victory for the Ted Cruz campaign. And remember, when Donald Trump announced the Sarah Palin announcement, this was a big get for them, the former V.P. nominee, still very popular, even though her clout may have diminished a little bit since the last cycle. Still very popular among conservatives. Donald Trump clearly thought that Palin could help win over

evangelicals for him. She hasn't actually been on the road very much with him and actually ever since the Chris Christie endorsement, he has been playing more the role of, really surrogate, introducing Trump on stage, traveling with him to various states. So yeah, I think that if Donald Trump lost Alaska after all of that, that would be a big disappointment for him.

BOLDUAN: And Dylan, one thing we've heard on both sides, kind of the commentary tonight and we'll continue to hear is, campaigns don't stop running. They just run out of money. And that seems -- The money thing, though, looking forward, money is the thing that there is no shortage of in this election.

Does that suggest to you that there's no motivation on the Republican side and the Democratic side? Bernie Sanders hauled in a huge number for February for anyone to do anything other than take it to the convention.

BYERS: Yeah, I think that's exactly right. And if you look at Bernie Sanders, my guess is that his campaign quietly is coming to terms with the fact that he's probably not going to win the Democratic nomination. But look, from the beginning before Bernie Sanders had his sort of catastrophic rise -- or sorry -- meteoric rise, his campaign was really about pushing a Democratic socialist agenda, a liberal agenda, and moving Hillary Clinton more towards the left. And now that's -- you know -- He's been effective in doing that. So the longer he can go on and as long as he has money, he will continue to do it.

BOLDUAN: All right, guys. Stick with us. Much more ahead on the results on Super Tuesday. Still waiting to find out exactly how this plays out in Alaska. We've got special coverage, a special edition of EARLY START continues right after this.

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