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Early Start with John Berman and Zoraida Sambolin

Super Tuesday Elections: Can Trump & Clinton Keep Leads?; Russia Withdrawing Troops from Syria; Syria Peace Talks Begin. Aired 4-4:30a ET

Aired March 15, 2016 - 04:00   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[04:00:14] CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN ANCHOR: Here we go. In just hours, pivotal elections in the race for the president begin. Can anyone stop Donald Trump? Stop Donald Trump like slow Donald Trump? Will Bernie Sanders steal Hillary Clinton's status? We are breaking it down the big races for you this morning on a very big Tuesday morning.

Good morning. Welcome to EARLY START. I'm Christine Romans.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: I'm John Berman. It is Tuesday, March 15th, the Ides of March, 4:00 a.m. in the East.

And it is here. What could be the most crucial, at least the most super, Super Tuesday yet. Millions will cast ballots today across the country and primaries that could effectively determine the presidential nominees for either or both parties.

Democrats voting in these states with 691 votes. Polls getting pretty tight in Missouri, Illinois and Ohio.

For the Republicans, 367 deletes are up for grabs with a lot of eyes on Ohio and Florida. They are winner take all states.

And it could be last gasp for native sons Marco Rubio in Florida and John Kasich in Ohio. Donald Trump wants both states. He spent the day campaigning in both states. Ending in Ohio where new poll shows it a tight race, a few points behind the Governor John Kasich.

CNN's Jim Acosta is with Donald Trump and has the very latest.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

JIM ACOSTA, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: John and Christine, Donald Trump was able to get his message across without interruption at this rally in Ohio. There were no disruptions, no protests. The Trump campaign did require that people attending the rally park miles away and then take busses to get here. One Trump volunteer organizer here told us they were hoping that would keep the demonstrations down to a minimum. Well, it worked.

As for Trump's message, it was one attack after another on the state's Governor John Kasich. Here's what he had to say. DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Kasich cannot make America great again. He can't do it. He can't do it. If you didn't hit oil -- and that wasn't because of him, believe me -- if you didn't hit oil, you would have had a disaster. This would have been as bad as any of them.

ACOSTA: Trump is hitting Kasich hard because the stakes are enormous. A Kasich victory in Ohio, along with the least likely Rubio win in Florida would rewrite the narrative of this campaign, signaling for the first time that Trump may not have the delegates necessary to the clinch the GOP nomination -- John and Christine.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROMANS: All right. Jim Acosta, thanks for that, Jim.

Hillary Clinton campaigning hard with one eye on Donald Trump making the case that she is best prepared to take him on. Her other eye on Bernie Sanders. She has to beat him first, and they are neck and neck in some of today's pivotal contests.

Brianna Keilar travelling with the Clinton. She's got the latest for us this morning.

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: John and Christine, Hillary Clinton and former President Bill Clinton hitting three states before the series of contests on another big Tuesday -- Illinois, North Carolina, Florida. Hillary Clinton making her case that she is a better opponent to a Donald Trump candidacy.

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I know that none of this can happen unless we work together, unless we decide we'd rather be united than divided. Unless we reject the kind of bluster and bigotry and bullying that is stalking our political system. I believe that's what Americans will do. I believe we are better than what we are hearing every night on television.

KEILAR: Certainly, the Clinton campaign hopes that a good showing in most of the five states will solidify her position as the presumptive Democratic nominee. But they also are looking in the rear-view mirror to Michigan and they're worried that Bernie Sanders' message that Hillary Clinton was for NAFTA in the '90s could resonate in Missouri, Ohio and Illinois -- John and Christine.

(END VIDEOTAPE)

ROMANS: Thanks, Brianna.

BERMAN: It is a big day. Five states voting.

Le's throw out the map for the Republicans here, because it's very interesting how this breaks down. There's been a lot of focus in Florida and Ohio. They are winner-take-all states. Marco Rubio could be in serious trouble in Florida right now. If he loses that and he is trailing Donald Trump in polls, this would be the last day in the race for him. Ohio is a different story. Ohio is winner-take-all, but John Kasich has a solid chance to win that state and he will live to fight another day if that's the case.

What's very interesting, though, right now is don't sleep on Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina. Those are states that Ted Cruz is campaigning in very, very hard. The delegate allocation there is different than Ohio and Florida. It's not winner-take-all. It's proportional.

Ted Cruz could emerge with a whole bunch of delegates there. So, people may think if Donald Trump wins Florida, it's all over, it's a slam dunk. That's not the case. Ted Cruz could emerge from today looking pretty good.

[04:05:02] ROMANS: We've been looking at Ohio, Illinois and Missouri, looking at how many jobs have been lost, how many factories have been closed over the past few months, looking at those numbers. Because you remember what happened in Michigan and how this anti-trade, this concern about middle class manufacturing jobs has really been resonating.

And you look at Ohio, it really looks an awful lot like Michigan did on Super Tuesday last week. And then there's last minute push of ads, anti-Trump ads. One really is getting a lot of attention this morning. This is an anti-Trump ad read by women quoting Donald Trump.

Let's listen to a little tiny bit of that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You know, it doesn't matter what they write as long as you have a young and beautiful piece of (EXPLETIVE DELETED)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That must be a pretty picture, you dropping to your knees.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: There was blood coming out of her eyes. Blood coming out of her, wherever.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Women, you have to treat them like (EXPLETIVE DELETED)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: This is how Donald Trump talks about our mothers --

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: You get the point. I mean, it goes on and on like that for a while. It's using Donald Trump's own words against him.

I think the key phrase that you use to describe that was last-minute ad. It went up yesterday. It's a very effective ad. It's very biting ad. But it went up at the last minute. I don't know how much impact it

will have before voting today. And it may have been just for media consumption for us to play it.

ROMANS: Maybe. But you're going to be seeing -- for those folks in those states who've been inundated with ads over the past few days, they're going to see a lot more of them.

BERMAN: Well, not the five states that vote today, they are done. That's the point. If you are going to be effective and change anything in those states, it should have been up days ago with that ad. I mean, they may air it in Arizona, in Utah, which vote in, you know, in the coming weeks. But I'm not sure what kind of impact that will have for Marco Rubio who may gone from the race then.

ROMANS: For the Democrats, quickly, again looking very keenly at Ohio here because of what happened in Michigan a week ago when Bernie Sanders, defying all of the polls with Bernie Sanders had such a great showing, such a great showing. You see 143 delegates at stake there for the Democrats.

You know, it's interesting, when you look at the delegate math on both sides here, it's whether you're slowing the frontrunner or you're stopping the frontrunner, right? I mean, the delegate map, most scenarios plays out how?

BERMAN: Well, for the Democrats, it is proportional the whole the time. And there's going to be a lot of focus today on Ohio, Missouri and Illinois. Can Bernie Sanders win in those states? But even if he does, there's a big possibility that Hillary Clinton emerges from today with more delegates from today.

That is because she is expected to win fairly big in Florida and fairly big in North Carolina. When Hillary Clinton wins, she wins by big margins. When Bernie Sanders wins, except for New Hampshire and Colorado, those are two exemptions so far, he wins by more razor-tight margins. So, he hasn't been able to create distance in the delegate map. So, even last week, which was an awful day for Hillary Clinton losing Michigan, she actually had more delegates won that day because she won big in Mississippi.

ROMANS: All right. Big morning, big day heading to the polls. It starts to get real right now again for those states and these candidates as we're moving forward here.

Let's -- eight minutes past the hour. Could Iran be ready to launch a rocket at any minute? What one official is now telling CNN, that's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[04:12:14] ROMANS: Developing this morning, Iran on the verge of launching a three-stage rocket with a satellite on top. This is the assessment of a U.S. official who tells CNN the launch would represent a significant advancement for the Iranians with their intercontinental ballistic missile technology. The missiles would be capable of reaching Israel. Iran test fired two missiles last week says they were marked with the words Israel must be wiped off the face of the earth.

BERMAN: President Obama is nearing a decision on Supreme Court. An announcement could come as soon as today. White House insiders say the finalists are all federal circuit judges have broad appeal and would be difficult for Republicans to ignore. That's what the White House says. In an interview with CNN, the president conceded he is searching for a consensus candidate. Again, his words, I doubt the Republicans will agree.

ROMANS: The White House is reversing course to allow drilling off the Southeast Atlantic coast. The Interior Department is expected to make this announcement today after an outpouring of opposition from communities, stretching from Georgia to Virginia. President Obama approved the drilling plan last year, but at least 106 communities signed resolutions urging him to kill it.

BERMAN: The Flint water crisis takes center stage on Capitol Hill today. The House oversight committee will be hearing from Flint's former mayor, former emergency manager, and from a former EPA regional manager. That former emergency manager Darnell Early was appointed by the state of Michigan. He is prepared to blame the lead contamination in Flint's drinking water on state and federal expert whom he claims failed him.

For the first time, the NFL is acknowledging a link between football and the chronic brain disease CTE. That admission comes from league's senior vice president for health and safety, Jeff Miller. Miller was participating in a round table discussion about concussions with lawmakers when he was asked whether there is a link between head trauma and CTE. He replied, certainly, yes.

ROMANS: Super Tuesday number three is here and the economy and jobs are likely be the top issue for voters. In Ohio, this chart shows why the debate over trade has resonated so deeply there. Manufacturing jobs plunge from more than a million in the year 2000, to just more than 600,000 at the depths of the recession. Since that recession, only 80,000 manufacturing positions have returned since the bottom.

But this is the disconnect. The unemployment rate in Ohio right at the national average. Missouri is below the national average. Florida is slightly lower at 5 percent.

This the economic trend of these primary season. Overall economic data is mixed, but voters feel the economy is not working for them. That is why passionate, passionate rhetoric about trade and overtones of protectionism are rally voters. Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders really the two candidates who capitalize on that.

BERMAN: Stormy weather could disrupt voting in three Super Tuesday states. I want to turn to meteorologist Pedram Javaheri with the latest.

PEDRAM JAVAHERI, AMS METEOROLOGIST: John and Christine, yes, you're Super Tuesday here. [04:15:01] We certainly could see some rough weather working its way

across part of the Midwest, and in fact, you see the front this afternoon and this evening. About 20 million people underneath a severe weather threat, the vast majority of the area going to be confined to, say, Peoria, Chicago, Milwaukee. Some of the major cities that are going to be dealing with the rough weather.

So, here's what we have as far as the storm and timing is concerned. First band comes in the early morning hours and mid-afternoon hours, I think that will move just north of Chicago into Milwaukee. It's that second band that comes in, right around, say, 5:00 p.m. But they will really impact northern portions of Missouri and eventually northern portions of Illinois as well. Ands that's when we think some disruptive weather could come in associated with the front.

Notice, as you work out towards North Carolina or even Florida, voting is set to take place. Not much in the way of inclement weather at least in the next 24 hours. Scattered showers this morning around the northeast, work your way back up towards the Midwest.

Here is the storm system as it comes in, some strikes popping up across Omaha with thunderstorms so far this morning. And notice for your Super Tuesday, Cleveland with a foggy start. Temperatures do begin to moderate back out to 53 degrees with partly cloudy to mostly sunny by the afternoon hours -- guys.

BERMAN: All right. Pedram, thanks so much.

All right. From Broadway to the White House, the cast of the smash "Hamilton" paid the Obamas a visit. Lin-Manuel Miranda, the creator and star of the musical showed off his freestyle rap skills with little help from the president. Watch.

(VIDEO CLIP PLAYS)

BERMAN: I think the Obamas have seen "Hamilton" multiple times. I think, in fact, a lot of the success was based on the Obamas loving it early on. And everyone seems to love it.

ROMANS: The former and current treasury secretaries also love it. The current treasury secretary adored that show.

BERMAN: They like all shows about treasury secretaries.

ROMANS: Yes.

BERMAN: The "Hamilton" cast spent the day at the White House.

ROMANS: The genre of secretary.

BERMAN: The Paul O'Neil is hilarious. It really is.

There was a student workshop at the White House yesterday and they performed songs from the show. A lot of people were joking that the way they were going to see "Hamilton" was to watch the live stream yesterday from the White House. But I think it went down. I think so many people were watching. I can never see "Hamilton."

(CROSSTALK)

ROMANS: I can't get in.

Exactly.

Seventeen minutes past the hour. Russia suddenly pulling troops out of Syria as peace talks enter a second day. We've got live coverage breaking down what this means for Syria and the war on ISIS, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[04:22:02] BERMAN: New this morning, Vladimir Putin is ordering forces to start pulling out of Syria. The Russian leader says the military effort in Syria has achieved its goal.

Russia begins air strikes in September in support of the Assad government in the five-year-old civil war. The announcement comes just as new Syria peace talks open up in Geneva.

So, what does Russian withdrawal mean for those peace talks and the fight against ISIS?

We have team coverage. I want to go first to CNN's Matthew Chance in Moscow.

Matthew, this came as a surprise to the U.S. administration.

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Yes, well, not just to them, but to everybody else as well. It was classic Putin. It was expected. It was totally unpredicted as well.

But last night, the Russian president gave the order for the military operation in Syria to come to an end. Today, the Russian defense minister Sergey Shoygu has announced that the planes there, that have been based there, carrying out more than 9,000 airstrikes in the past six months are being prepared to make the long flight back to their permanent bases on the -- inside Russia itself.

And so, yes, it does seem that Russia declared victory and it's pulling out. It's got victories it can point to. For instance, it's bolstered its ally Bashar al Assad. Assad has gained more than 10,000 square miles of territory in the past six months, as a result of being backed by the Russian air force.

It's also brought the warring parties to the negotiating table. They are in Geneva now starting this peace process. That simply would not have happened if it weren't for the Russian intervention, the Russian pressure on the opposition forces.

But I think mostly importantly, from the Kremlin point of view, this intervention in Syria has bolstered its reputation overseas. Russia is now seen very much as a global player who should be taken seriously, John.

BERMAN: Interesting to see.

All right. Matthew Chance, thank you so much.

ROMANS: As we mentioned the surprise move by Russia comes amid new peace talks aimed at resolving the Syrian civil conflict.

CNN international diplomatic editor Nic Robertson live for us in Geneva this morning -- Nic.

NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Yes, the opposition here was saying, look, if Putin's rhetoric is matched by actions on the ground, that can help the talks here. Yesterday, the Syrian government came in for them.

A red line was President Bashar al Assad they say were not going to lose him. He's going to say in power in Syria. The opposition, of course, saying, no, Assad has to go. That is a point of contention.

Two years ago, it was exactly the same situation here with the peace talks in Geneva. Back then, Russia was blamed for not pressuring the Syrian government to make changes, to negotiate in good faith and talk about a political transition, a real political transition.

So, this time, potentially, it's different. That's how the opposition is seeing it.

However, there is also and we have to look at this this way, there'd been a lot of pressure on Russia. If these talks fail, there was every possibility that sanctions were be levied against Russia, there is military pressure.

The Saudis and their Sunni Arab allies were saying, we will -- we want to put surface-to-air missiles to take down Russian aircraft. That would be potentially a game changer on the battle field. And then, of course, you have the diplomatic pressure that the Sunni Arabs have been putting on Russia, saying look, right now, you are partnered with Iran.

[04:25:06] If you want a relationship with the Sunnis in the region going forward, we will judge you on what you do now.

And certainly, there is evidence of Russian back channel talks with the Sunni Arabs over the past month or so. And people in the region there indicate to me they had an inkling that potentially Russia might do something like this. So, a surprise to many people, but not a total, total shock, Christine.

ROMANS: All right. Nic Robertson, thanks so much for that this morning, Nic.

BERMAN: All right. A huge day in the race for president here in the U.S. Critical contests in key states that could spell the end for some candidacies. It could complicate the candidacies of these frontrunners. Will they keep the momentum? That's next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK) BERMAN: You thought the first Super Tuesday was big. You thought it was big the second time around, but oh, no. It is here. The biggest Super Tuesday of all.