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Early Start with John Berman and Zoraida Sambolin

Five State Vote In Today's Primaries; U.S. Official: Iran Rocket Launch "At Any Minute"; Obama Kills Atlantic Ocean Drilling Plan; Flint Water Crisis Hearing; Russia Withdrawing Troops From Syria; Trump's Jobless Numbers Don't Add Up. Aired 5:30-6a ET

Aired March 15, 2016 - 05:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[05:30:00] CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN ANCHOR: In just hours, key elections begin that will dramatically change the race for president. Will Donald Trump be stopped? Can Bernie Sanders upset Hillary Clinton? We're breaking down and counting down the big races.

Welcome back to EARLY START. I'm Christine Romans.

JOHN BERMAN, CNN ANCHOR: I'm John Berman. Thirty minutes past the hour right now and it is here -- what could be the most crucial or, at least, the most super of Super Tuesdays yet. Millions of ballots will be cast today across the country in primaries that could, effectively, determine the presidential nominees for either party or both parties.

Democrats voting in these five states -- 691 delegates at stake, all proportional allocation for the Democrats. The polls getting tight in Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio. For the Republicans, 367 delegates up for grabs. Florida and Ohio, though, winner-take-all states with huge implications for John Kasich, governor of Ohio, Marco Rubio, the senator from Florida. Without wins there, their races could be over.

That's why Donald Trump is campaigning in both of those states today trying to seal the deal. He ended up in Ohio where the polls show him in a tight race with John Kasich -- a little bit behind right now.

CNN's Jim Acosta is with the Trump campaign and has the latest.

JIM ACOSTA, CNN SENIOR WHITE HOUSE CORRESPONDENT: John and Christine, Donald Trump was able to get his message across without interruption at this rally in Ohio. There were no disruptions, no protests. The Trump campaign did require that people attending this rally park miles away and then take buses to get here.

One Trump volunteer organizer here told us they were hoping that tactic would keep the demonstrations down to a minimum. Well, it worked. As for Trump's message, it was one attack after another on the state's governor, John Kasich. Here's what he had to say.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

DONALD TRUMP (R), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Kasich cannot make America great again. Can't do it. He can't do it. If you didn't hit oil, and that wasn't because of him, believe me -- if you didn't hit oil, you would have had a disaster. This would have been as bad as any of them.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ACOSTA: Trump is hitting Kasich hard because the stakes are enormous. A Kasich victory in Ohio, along with a less likely Rubio win in Florida, would rewrite the narrative of this campaign, signaling for the first time that Trump may not have the delegates necessary to clinch the GOP nomination -- John and Christine.

ROMANS: All right, Jim Acosta, thank you. Hillary Clinton campaigning hard with one eye on Donald Trump, making the case that she is best prepared to take him on, and her other eye on Bernie Sanders. She has to beat him first. They're neck-in-neck in some of today's pivotal contests. Brianna Keilar is traveling with the Clinton campaign. She has the latest for us.

BRIANNA KEILAR, CNN SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT: John and Christine, Hillary Clinton and former president Bill Clinton hitting three states before these series of contests on another big Tuesday -- Illinois, North Carolina, Florida. Hillary Clinton making her case that she is a better opponent to a Donald Trump candidacy.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

HILLARY CLINTON (D), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: I know that none of this can happen unless we work together. Unless we decide we'd rather be united than divided. Unless we reject the kind of bluster, and bigotry, and bullying that is stalking our political system. I believe that's what Americans will do. I believe we are better than what we are hearing every night on television.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

KEILAR: Certainly, the Clinton campaign hopes that a good showing in most of these five states will solidify her position as the presumptive Democratic nominee, but they also are looking in the rearview mirror to Michigan. And they're worried that Bernie Sanders' message that Hillary Clinton was for NAFTA in the 90's could resonate in Missouri, Ohio, and Illinois -- John and Christine.

BERMAN: All right, thanks to Brianna Keilar for that. Christine Romans assures me that was Jon Bon Jovi, or is it all of Bon Jovi -- the whole thing?

ROMANS: We weren't born to follow -- I don't know. Actually, I don't know. But, Josh Rogin, I'm wondering -- CNN's political analyst Josh Rogin is with us this morning. Columnist for Bloomberg View. I would say Elton John and Jon Bon Jovi are two of the most widely played artists on the campaign trail. It starts to all blend together. What do you think?

JOSH ROGIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: I'm a Springsteen guy, myself --

ROMANS: Yes.

ROGIN: -- and as it turns out, Springsteen's politics don't actually match with most of the people who play Springsteen songs at their rallies.

[05:35:00] From Ronald Reagan all the way to Chris Christie. But, it's just for getting the crowd going and I do have a sort of a personal bias here. Bruce Springsteen is the guy you want to go to in this kind of a situation.

ROMANS: When we're through all these Super Tuesdays I want to do a political analysis of the songs played at these --

BERMAN: Helping America understand Super Tuesday #3 through music. We're looking at a map right now, Josh, and the votes up for stake for the Republicans and the delegates up for stake. Winner-take-all in Ohio and Florida. This is not the Super Tuesday #3 that the establishment thought it might be when they set this up.

ROGIN: Right. John, in 2012, Mitt Romney took until mid-April to really secure the nomination for all intents and purposes. That was seen as way too late. And the establishment will now look back upon that as the good old days when things worked relatively smoothly, because no matter what happens today, this race is not ending anytime soon.

In the best case scenario for Donald Trump, he wins five states but Ted Cruz still picks up a ton delegates, and it becomes a two-man race that goes well into the summer, if not to the convention itself. In the worst case scenario, he loses Ohio -- maybe even Florida, though I doubt it. In that case, you still have three or four more candidates.

That increases the chances of a contested convention, reduces the chances Trump will get to that magic number of 1,237. So this is the most significant -- the most super of Tuesdays, as you mentioned, but it's really not the end. Hopefully, it's the beginning of the end if you're somebody in the Republican establishment that's looking to wrap this up relatively soon.

ROMANS: Donald Trump with a brand new op-ed in USA Today this morning, sharpening his attacks on trade, saying the American worker is getting crushed. Saying he's the only person who can bring manufacturing back and make America great again.

One of the things he says in here -- he talks about the TPP and he talks about so many of the candidates who supported it. "One of the first casualties of the TPP will be America's auto industry, and among the worst victims of this pact will be the people of Ohio. The TPP will send America's remaining auto jobs to Japan. Yet, Gov. John Kasich, Sen. Ted Cruz and Sen. Marco Rubio have all promoted the Trans-Pacific Partnership -- a mortal threat to American manufacturing."

He's putting a little more meat on the bones of what has now been a very emotional push about manufacturing jobs are gone -- I'm going to get them back. Is this going to help him or do details matter here for this?

ROGIN: Well, it could happen in the short-term. These trade deals are extremely unpopular, especially in states like North Carolina and Ohio, and to a lesser degree in Illinois. So, it makes sense what he's doing from a political point, but we shouldn't pretend here that Donald Trump has laid out a trade policy that makes a lot of sense in any real way or has proposed any sort of real alternative.

The Trump people are very clear. They say we want to be strong oppositions, but we don't have to be detailed on policy, and that strategy seems to be borne out in what's going on in the polls. The bottom line here is that Hillary Clinton was a supporter of TPP for years. She pushed it. It was part of her pivot to Asia as Secretary of State. Everybody knows it despite what she says today about it.

And the Republican establishment, including the Republican leadership, including President Obama, are all for TPP. If you want to have globalization and you want to have rules of the road, this is the best game in town. But, for now, Trump's calculation is it doesn't matter-- it's unpopular, so he's against it.

BERMAN: One of the great ironies of this campaign is there is broad agreement among many of the presidential candidates on both sides who could not be more different in most of their ideological positions. But when it comes to trade and it comes to TPP, there's agreement between, say, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders --

ROMANS: Yes.

BERMAN: -- which is why, you know -- Bernie Sanders put out a laundry list overnight of areas where he feels that Hillary Clinton has moved or has been inconsistent, and he included in that list the TPP. Let's listen to what Bernie Sanders had to say overnight.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: She has evolved on the Keystone Pipeline, she has evolved on the Trans- Pacific Partnership. She has apologized for supporting the war in Iraq. She's apologized for supporting this homophobic DOMA legislation of the 1990's. So, yes, I suppose that one can get satisfaction from seeing her move closer to our positions. But I think what the voters have got to decide is will she be apologizing 20 years from now for actions she takes today?

(END VIDEO CLIP)

BERMAN: It's actually a pretty stark contrast right there, as strong as we've seen from Bernie Sanders. And Josh, here, we're going to put up the map right now where the Democrats are voting today to take a look at where the delegates are here. You can see Missouri, Illinois, and Ohio. Those three states are states where the Sanders' campaign thinks they have a chance, maybe, to pull off an upset.

ROGIN: Yes -- listen, Bernie Sanders is right on the facts. Hillary Clinton has changed her positions on all four of those things. Just to draw a distinction here, the trade stuff and the Keystone XL Pipeline -- those are things she has a recent record on. Like DOMA, that dates back to her husband's presidency in the 90's, the war in Iraq she's already said she made a mistake on. The policies that really affect Democratic voters and general election

voters to do with trade and to do with these issues, Hillary Clinton has changed. And she'll be forced to keep the positions that she's had in the primary through the general election, however the chips fall out. And that really shows the impact that the Sanders' campaign has had on this Democratic primary debate and on Hillary Clinton as she heads into the general.

[05:40:00]

Whether or not Bernie Sanders is able to pull this out -- and it's a longshot for him, but you never say never, especially this craziest year of elections that we have ever seen -- the damage is done and Hillary Clinton has changed as a candidate, and that will have huge implications if and when she becomes the Democratic nominee for her.

ROMANS: There was an anti-Trump ad -- women quoting things that Donald Trump has said about women -- that dropped last night. It's getting a lot of attention this morning and sometimes I wonder if this is something that will matter more -- this kind of line that will matter more if Hillary Clinton's the nominee than right now maybe in the primaries. Let's listen to a little bit of that ad.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: You know, it really doesn't matter what they write as long as you've got a young and beautiful piece of (bleep).

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: That must be a pretty picture -- you dropping to your knees.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: There was blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her wherever.

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: Women -- you have to treat them like (bleep).

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: This is how Donald Trump talks about our mothers --

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: -- our sisters --

UNIDENTIFIED FEMALE: -- our daughters.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROMANS: He's polling so well among women in Florida. For example, that's an anti-Trump Super PAC. Does it matter? Too late?

ROGIN: Well, it depends too late for what, right? As you've been pointing out all week here, these ads came way too late to save Marco Rubio. They probably came way too late to save John Kasich, right? But, there's a bigger dynamic here. It's that the Republican Party and the "Never Trump" movement is so impassioned and so determined to stop Trump that it's not clear that they would really be upset if they helped Hillary Clinton beat Trump in the general election. The Republican Party, if Trump wins, has the potential to split in a way that we've never seen before and they need to avoid that at all costs. That's why you see them rallying around Ted Cruz. That's why you see the donors really coming to Ted Cruz. They would almost rather help Hillary beat Trump than see Trump tear their party apart in a way that's so unpredictable that they don't even know what they're going to do.

So, yes, the ads are too late but they're still doing them. There's a good reason they're still doing them. It's because their number one issue -- their number one goal is to stop Trump.

BERMAN: Long way to go before Cleveland and that convention, though. Today, the first step on that long road. Josh Rogin, thanks so much for being with us.

ROMANS: Thanks, Josh.

BERMAN: See how I take it in the wee hours of the morning.

ROGIN: See you tomorrow.

BERMAN: All right, a U.S. official tells CNN that Iran could be ready to launch a rocket at any moment. We have the details, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[05:46:00]

BERMAN: Developing this morning, Iran on the verge of launching a three-stage rocket with a satellite on top of it. That's the assessment of a U.S. official who tells CNN the launch would represent a significant advance for the Iranians with their intercontinental ballistic missile technology. The missiles would be capable of reaching Israel. Now, Iran test-fired two ballistic missiles last week and says they were marked with the words Israel must be wiped off the face of the earth.

ROMANS: The White House reversing course on its plan to allow gas and oil drilling off the southeast Atlantic coast. The Interior Department is expected to make that announcement today after an outpouring of opposition from communities stretching from Georgia to Virginia. President Obama approved the drilling plan early last year but at least 106 communities signed resolutions urging him to kill it.

BERMAN: The Flint water crisis takes center stage on Capitol Hill today. The House Oversight Committee will be hearing testimony from Flint's former mayor, former emergency manager, and from a former EPA regional manager. That former emergency manager, Darnell Earley, was appointed by the state of Michigan. Now, he is prepared to blame the lead contamination of Flint's drinking water on state and federal experts who he claims failed him.

Now, we'll take a look at what's coming up on "NEW DAY". Chris Cuomo joins us now. Good morning.

ROMANS: Morning.

CHRIS CUOMO, CNN ANCHOR, "NEW DAY": Hello, you handsome people. First of all, it is important for you to remind about Flint. It's still going on. People are still living out of bottled water there. Very important to remind. Very important to stay on that story.

Today is March 15th. You know it as Super Tuesday #3, however, in history we also know it as the Ides of March. The question is, who will play the role of Caesar? All eyes are on Florida and Ohio, with Republican winner-take-all contests in both states. Different than on the Democratic side. That's why it's so heavy with intention.

Marco Rubio, John Kasich, desperately in need of wins of their home states to keep hope alive. Trump refusing to let either go without a fight. The polls show that he is doing very well in all the states up for grabs today.

On the Democratic side, again, it's not winner-take-all, it's proportional. But, we're looking at it regionally in terms of where will the real strength be for Hillary Clinton? We know about the south. What about the midwest? We saw what happened in Michigan. What will be the delegate situation after today because it's going to lead us all the way into convention?

So, we're going to look at it all the different ways we can. We have people in all the critical places, as we always do here on CNN. John Berman, you're holding your hand in an odd way. Is that new?

BERMAN: Well, we're just trying to get to the bottom of this Caesar thing there.

ROMANS: The Ides of March. It's better to be Brutus than Caesar.

BERMAN: It's better to be Brutus than Caesar, right? Do we all agree on that?

CUOMO: I believe what I said, accurately so and also engaging and provocative, was who will play the role of Caesar?

BERMAN: Meaning?

CUOMO: You don't want that role --

BERMAN: No.

CUOMO: -- because you die.

BERMAN: Exactly. Excellent point.

ROMANS: I'll tell you what. Either way, I'm the Romans, so I --

BERMAN: That's right.

CUOMO: When you're sitting on that set, Romans, you win.

BERMAN: Yes. ROMANS: All right. Thanks, Chris.

CUOMO: Et tu, Berman.

BERMAN: Et tu, all right. Thanks so much, Chris.

ROMANS: All right. Russia suddenly pulling troops out of Syria as peace talks enter a second day. Live team coverage breaking down what this means for Syria and the war on ISIS, next.

[05:49:00]

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ROMANS: All right, breaking news this morning. Russia announcing its planes have started leaving Syria, called home under orders from President Vladimir Putin. Now, Putin says the military effort in Syria has achieved its goal. Russia began airstrikes, remember, in September, in support of the Assad government in its 5-year-old civil war. The announcement coming just as new Syria peace talks open in Geneva on Monday. We have team coverage.

I want to go first to CNN's Matthew Chance in Moscow. Matthew, what can you tell us?

MATTHEW CHANCE, CNN SENIOR INTERNATIONAL CORRESPONDENT: Well, a very unexpected move. Really it's classic Putin to be so unpredictable like this. But late last night, here in Moscow, he announced this step to declare a victory, essentially, saying that all of his objectives have essentially been met in Syria and calling for the withdrawal of Russian forces from that country.

That order has now been implemented the first thing in the morning here in Moscow. Already, Russian warplanes have begun the 5,000 kilometer -- 3,000 miles or so -- trip back from their base inside Syria back to their permanent bases in Russia. And so, it really does appear now to be happening and it comes at a crucial time.

Putin is eventually declaring victory and he's got lots of wins to point to. He has secured his ally, Bashar al-Assad. He's brought the warring parties to the negotiating table. And, what's more important to him, I think, is that he's bolstered Russia's standing on the international stage. It is now a player and everybody's taking notice of what Moscow says and does -- Christine.

ROMANS: All right, Matthew Chance. Thank you for that, Matthew, in Moscow for us.

BERMAN: All right, as I mentioned, the surprise move by Russia comes amid these new peace talks aimed at resolving the Syrian civil conflict.

CNN international diplomatic editor Nic Robertson live in Geneva where these talks are taking place. And, Nic, this has got to affect the discussions there. NIC ROBERTSON, CNN INTERNATIONAL DIPLOMATIC EDITOR: Sure. The man heading those talks -- the chief negotiator here, Staffan de Mistura, says that this is a significant development and he hopes that it will have a positive impact on the talks here. Until yesterday, he'd met just with the Syrian government. Their red line had been they wouldn't back down on President Bashar al-Assad. He had to stay in power.

Today, he'll meet with the opposition. They say Assad has to go. This is where we were two years ago in the talks. Back then, Russia was heavily criticized because it didn't pressure the Syrian government into real political negotiations. So the potential this time is will Russia's decision, right now, to draw down troops -- will that impact the Syrian negotiating team and their position here? Will they be willing to compromise on President Bashar al-Assad?

And, of course, that is the big key issue and the stumbling point of the moment. But everyone here recognizes Russia under pressure. If these talks had failed, the U.N. said the reality was no plan B -- it goes back to war. But, there was a plan B, and that would have been economic sanctions on Russia. It would have been isolation from the Sunni-Arab world.

That weighed heavily on Russia as it considered its position and the potential military escalation. Rebels waiting for surface-to-air missiles that Saudi's and others said they would want to see them have in their hands. That could have brought down Russian aircraft. A game changer -- John.

BERMAN: All right, Nic Robertson for us in Geneva. Thanks so much, Nic.

ROMANS: All right, 57 minutes past the hour. To money and politics here, on the stump and in interviews Donald Trump, the front-runner on the GOP, has claimed the official unemployment rate is eight times the published rate. Just this weekend he told CNN's Don Lemon, "As you know, as people give up looking for jobs, all of a sudden they are considered employed statistically."

Well, that's not true. They're not counted as employed. They drop out of the labor market if they're not looking for work. And he has said this.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

TRUMP: Don't believe those phony numbers when you hear4.9 and 5 percent unemployment. The number's probably 28-29 --as high as 35. In fact, I even heard recently 42 percent.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROMANS: All of those statistics are not true. To make it to 42 percent unemployment he would have to count every single person who was not working, and then some. He would have to count students, the elderly, retirees, stay-at-home moms, stay-at-home dads, people who don't want to work, people who don't have to work, and to some degree, people who've just given up looking.

The official unemployment rate is an active measure of who is looking for work. It currently sits at 4.9 percent. Now, there's another unemployment rate that is higher. It is also helpful to assess the health of the job market. It's called the underemployment rate. It is 9.7 percent. Now, that counts people who are looking for work. It counts people who are working part-time, but they want to work full- time. It counts discouraged workers who have given up recently looking for work but would like to work. By no means are 42 percent of Americans unemployed.

Donald Trump has been talking a lot about the trade situation, too, which is important in North Carolina, which is important in Ohio. He's got a new op-ed in USA Today on that this morning.

BERMAN: And why? Because it's a huge election day.

ROMANS: It is.

BERMAN: The final Super Tuesday. It could be a pivotal day in this presidential race. "NEW DAY" starts right now.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. MARCO RUBIO (R-FL), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Oh look, a Bernie Sanders sign. Don't worry, you're not going to get beat up at my rally.

TRUMP: There'sno violence, there's lovefests. These are lovefests.

CLINTON: I am so worried about our country and what could happen if we don't band together.

SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: A vote for John Kasich or a vote for Marco Rubio is a vote that's thrown away.

GOV. JOHN KASICH (R-OH), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: Don't doubt America. It's coming back.

TRUMP: Kasich cannot make America great again.

SANDERS: We will not accept their bigotry and xenophobia.

RUBIO: But we're going to shock the country.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANNOUNCER: This is NEW DAY with Chris Cuomo, Alisyn Camerota, and Michaela Pereira.

CUOMO: Big day. Good morning. Welcome to your NEW DAY. It's Tuesday, March 15th, 6:00 in the east. It is Super Tuesday #3.

It is also the Ides of March and nobody wants to be Caesar. The question is, will all survive? Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Ohio Gov. John Kasich -- both, maybe, in must-win situations in their home states.