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Cruz & Sanders Win Wisconsin Primary Election; Has Donald Trump Hit His Ceiling?; Three States Moving Forward with Religious Freedom Laws. Aired 4:30-5a ET

Aired April 06, 2016 - 04:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[04:31:56] CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN ANCHOR: The Wisconsin primary election shaking up the race for president. Ted Cruz increasing the odds of a contested Republican convention, while Bernie Sanders adds to his winning streak over Hillary Clinton.

Welcome back. Very big morning for you all, folks. This is EARLY START. I'm Christine Romans.

MIGUEL MARQUEZ, CNN ANCHOR: I'm Miguel Marquez. It is 32 minutes past the hour.

Our breaking news this morning, the crucial primary wins for Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders. Victories -- big victories in Wisconsin that keep the two candidates viable and are shaking up the race for president. On the Republican side, with 99 percent of the vote counted, Cruz soars 13 points past national front-runner Donald Trump, nabbing 48 percent of the vote, with John Kasich a distant third.

On the Democratic side, Bernie Sanders wallops Hillary Clinton statewide, taking 56 percent of the vote to Clinton's 43 percent. Cruz and Sanders celebrate their wins at raucous victory rallies, claiming that even though they underdogs, they do have plans and a path to the White House.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

SEN. TED CRUZ (R-TX), PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: As a result of the people of Wisconsin defying the media, defying the pundits, I am more and more convinced that our campaign is going to earn the 1,237 delegates needed to win the Republican nomination.

(CHEERS)

Either before Cleveland or at the convention in Cleveland.

Together, we will win a majority of the delegates, and together, we will beat Hillary Clinton in November.

SEN. BERNIE SANDERS (I-VT), DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE: With our victory tonight in Wisconsin, we have now won seven out of eight of the last caucuses and primaries.

(CHEERS)

And we have won almost all of them with overwhelming landslide numbers.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROMANS: Right. The Wisconsin results move Ted Cruz closer to that magic number of delegates needed to win, 1,237, and they tip the Republican Party much closer to a contested convention in Cleveland.

To help us game out what might happened on the Republican side, let's bring back our morning panel, CNN political analyst, Josh Rogin. He's a columnist for "Bloomberg View", senior reporter for media and politics, Dylan Byers, and senior media correspondent Brian Stelter, who's the host of "RELIABLE SOURCES."

Good morning, gentlemen.

BRIAN STELTER, CNN SENIOR MEDIA CORRESPONDENT: Good morning.

ROMANS: Josh, let's talk about this. It's not so much Ted Cruz getting closer to 1,237. It's Ted Cruz denying Donald Trump 1,237.

JOSH ROGIN, CNN POLITICAL ANALYST: Well, that's exactly right. And he made progress last night in denying him. Let's remember it's also John Kasich's strategy to deny Donald Trump 1,237.

So, if you were thinking about it logically, you would say that the best case scenario would be for Ted Cruz and Josh Kasich to sort of work together and find out which states that can peel the most delegates off of Trump and not attack each other in those states. That's not what's happening. They're attacking each other anyway. And a lot of the reason for that is because New York, the next big state that comes up, is set up in a way, where if you get 50 percent or more of any district, you get all the delegates for that district.

[04:35:08] So, the game is to deny Trump 50 percent in each of those New York districts, and at the same time, there's an incentive to come in second in New York. You get one delegate who come in second in each district.

So, there's a lot of reasons that Kasich and Cruz will continue to attack each other for the next two weeks. However, after the results yesterday in Wisconsin, it's clear that Donald Trump's path to 1,237 is more difficult. It's not clear how much more difficult.

Again, if he comes in just under the number, he might be able to make that up at the convention with all sorts of weird things that you can do to peel delegates off here and there. If he's 100 behind, he's 150 behind, then it's a whole another ball game. And that's what both the Cruz and Kasich campaigns are fighting for.

MARQUEZ: So, no speech by Trump but a tweet that was on fire, in fuego. "Donald J. Trump," speaking himself in the third person, "withstood

the onslaught of the establishment yet again. Lyin' Ted Cruz had the governor of Wisconsin, many conservative talk radio show hosts and the entire party apparatus behind him. Not only was he propelled by the anti-Trump super PACs spending countless millions of dollars and false advertising against Mr. Trump, he was coordinating with his own super PAC, which is illegal," amazingly enough he says, "who totally control him. Ted Cruz is worse than a puppet -- he's a Trojan horse being used by the party bosses attempting to steal the nomination from Mr. Trump."

Dylan, the question for you is, is -- has Trump hit his ceiling here? I mean, what does he have to do in New York?

DYLAN BYERS, CNN SENIOR REPORTER FOR MEDIA AND POLITICS: Well, I wonder when you ask that question, he has hit his ceiling in terms of national support, he has hit his ceiling just in terms of how crazy and incendiary the comments he'll make is, because look, what you saw in that tweet was vintage Trump, right? It was -- it was losing and shifting the narrative by making a radical insinuation that Ted Cruz is guilty of illegal behavior with absolutely no evidence, and has always worked for Trump in the past. And this gets to the other ceiling, which is the ceiling of support.

The narrative right now seems to be shifting. I know that's dangerous to say the narrative around Donald Trump is shifting because he's been defied political gravity so many times before, he's been doing it for nearly 10 months now. But truly, he's having this moment where the limits of his support are becoming very clear.

You look at his negatives among every single minority group. You look at his negatives among women. You look at the fact that even among Republican women, he's just above 50 percent in terms of support. There's really a sort of shifting narrative going on right now.

And that is what Ted Cruz is riding. He's not riding so much his own momentum, he's riding the momentum of that never Trump movement, which is begrudgingly come over to him and that's what he was able to declare victory tonight and declare victory in some of those key demographics that Donald Trump is familiar with winning in Wisconsin.

ROMANS: Brian Stelter, it was kind of a tough week. A lot of people were calling this the worst week of Donald Trump's campaign.

STELTER: Right.

ROMANS: The last week, coming in to Wisconsin. And when you look at some exit polls, one in particular about feelings if Trump is elected president, after last week, excited 23 percent, optimistic 18 percent, concerned 20 percent, scared, 38 percent.

STELTER: I know those are one of the most important findings of the whole night, 58 percent overall of primary voters saying they'd be concerned or scared if he was elected. The never Trump movement, of course, is taking credit for these results. PACs like Our Principles, the Club for Growth, et cetera. We have to wonder, how much of this was actually self-inflicted by Donald Trump.

I was weary of buying into the worst week rhetoric.

ROMANS: Yes.

STELTER: It felt too simple. It felt too dramatic to be true. Certainly, Trump has proved those kind of projections wrong time and time again.

(CROSSTALK)

STELTER: Right, that's right. Now, of course, the statement he put out. Normally, if you're going to lose and you kind of know you're going to lose, you'd write a carefully written statement. You have a draft many hours in advance.

What he put out last night read Miguel read to me like something typed very quickly.

MARQUEZ: Anger.

STELTER: It was dashed off very angrily.

I just have to wonder if that's going to attract new supporters or not. It would seem to me it's only going to encourage his supporters who are already with him.

MARQUEZ: Hard in his own support. I mean, New York is a different state as well. He will do well in New York presumably, 27 different districts. The way they apportion the votes, he's got basically 27 different fights because he has to win those 27 different districts.

STELTER: Right.

MARQUEZ: What is this fight going to look like? Will he pull his punches and appeal to a more moderate Republican party?

STELTER: I will go out on a limb and say no to that. I'm going to go out on the limb and guess no. You know, Cruz's message was key. He said this is a turning point. He was very -- he was prepared, right? He actually thought about that message far in advance of last night. He was ready to say that last night and he did it on a big stage.

As we talk about it, let's keep in mind, who was supposed to win in Wisconsin?

[04:40:01] The Governor Scott Walker.

ROMANS: Right, right.

STELTER: A number of months ago, before Walker drop out, we would have thought he would have cleaned up in his home state last night. It's a measure of how dramatically and radically this race has changed. Walker, of course, wasn't even on the ballot.

ROMANS: Josh, let's talk a little bit about electability, because as we get closer and after last week, maybe the worst week of the campaign for Donald Trump.

STELTER: Not his best week, we can say, too.

(CROSSTALK)

ROMANS: Electability. The top candidate quality, 68 percent, Trump 19 percent. Trump -- 20 percent, I guess. These numbers keep changing as we get more information. But this is pretty decisive there, Josh.

ROGIN: Yes, I think two things are going on. You know, one is here that Republicans all over the country are sort of discussing and coming to the terms of the fact that if Trump were their nominee at top of the ticket, that could have implications for all Republicans, especially Republicans who are facing tough Senate races in purple states. You know, this is something that's been sort of bubbling under the surface. But now, a lot of people look at this and they also look at the polls. And the polls, despite what Trump says, show Trump does not match up best against Hillary Clinton.

And so, when you look at those two things, a lot of GOP voters, especially a lot of these people who are going to be delegates, are saying, you know, running Trump is not a good idea for the party.

The other thing I think is going on here is that, we saw a slight shift in the Cruz rhetoric, right? He has been saying for weeks that his strategy was to get to 1,237 before the convention. Now, last night, he says before or after the convention, or at the convention.

That's a change. It's a change that John Kasich seized upon in his remarks last night. So, what we're seeing is a socialization of the idea that there is going to be a contested convention. And the Trump people can say there will be protests, this and that. But there's a growing realization that's where we're going. And that might be the best path for the Republicans going forward.

ROMANS: All right. Josh Rogin, Dylan, Brian, thanks, everybody. Stick there because we're going to talk about the Democrats and Bernie Sanders big win in Wisconsin. Does he have a path to the White House? We're going to break it down.

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(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

[04:46:25] SANDERS: If you ignore what you hear on corporate media, the facts are pretty clear -- we have a path toward victory, a path toward the White House.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

MARQUEZ: I think he was referring to us.

Bernie Sanders resounding win overnight in Wisconsin far surpasses his most optimistic polling numbers. He's now won seven of the last eight Democratic contests. Let's bring back our experts, A class panel, to break down the

Democratic side of the race.

We start with you, Dylan. What does Mr. Sanders need do in New York?

BYERS: Well, what he needs to do in New York, I mean, look, he needs to go up against a woman who served as senator there. And, obviously, the math is in her favor in that state. But I'm more concerned about what he has to do nationally. You know, there's this narrative coming out of the Sanders campaign now that they have all of this momentum and that somehow the Democrats, not just Republicans, but the Democrats are going to go to a brokered convention.

Of course, our own colleague, John King, broke the delegate math down for the Sanders campaign manager last night. And, look, it remains a very long shot. So, you can tell this story about momentum. You can tell the story about all the support you galvanized among the progressive base, and all of that is true, but this remains a game of math.

Now, I would say is that Sanders has done two important things. One, he's demonstrated there is this broad base of support for his Democratic socialist agenda. And it's one that Hillary Clinton needs to take seriously, one that the party needs to take seriously, going forward.

But the key thing he's done is he's shown the limitations of Hillary Clinton's own support and he's raised the red flags, that the enthusiasm gap that we've been talking about when it comes to Hillary Clinton for so long. He's really shown that that endures. He should not be winning seven out of eight contests this late in the game, going up against a candidate like Hillary Clinton. That's something she needs to address.

ROMANS: You know, when you look at these exit polls, Josh Rogin, I mean, top quality, honest and trustworthy, Bernie Sanders. I mean, that broke decisively in Wisconsin for Bernie Sanders. Who is more inspiring about the country's future? Bernie Sanders. Young people, independents, those who've been -- you know, no surprise he's been getting those pretty consistently.

So, Josh, what does Hillary Clinton need to do going forward? At first, she kind of ignored him. And then she kind of, I guess, shrugged him off and explained how she's the one who can get things done. She understands that there's an inspiration quality about him but he's just not electable.

Does she have to go after him hard now?

ROGIN: Yes, I think what the exit polls are showing here tells us more about the weaknesses of the Hillary Clinton campaign than it does really about the strengths of the Bernie Sanders campaign. She's still not reaching young voters. She's still not reaching independent voters. She's still not reaching white voters. These are problems that are going to endure for Hillary Clinton as she heads into the general. I think what Hillary Clinton's strategy is going to be going forward

is to, you know, continue to try to pivot to the general election while privately working on shoring up her base. You know, she can't be in this position where she is going back and forth getting into these fights with Bernie Sanders. That's why she was avoiding the debate. That's why she wants to go into her strongest states, New York, Pennsylvania, et cetera, with as little conflict as possible.

Of course, that's getting more and more difficult for her. And this is not going the way that she wants it. But it's not to her advantage to really take on Bernie at this point, especially if she doesn't absolutely have to. So, she's got to do that but under the radar and then publicly present herself as a general election candidate.

[04:50:04] MARQUEZ: Brian Stelter, the debate April 14th here on CNN. Mano-a-mano, the home boy versus the adopted daughter. After this loss in Wisconsin, New York is such an important firewall for her. What is that debate going to be like?

STELTER: The debate becomes even more timely because of this result last night and knowing that she has many reasons why she should win, or she's the favorite to win in New York. Even as we talk about the vulnerabilities of Clinton, and she is wrong, there are some vulnerabilities. I think we have to remember, she is still the single most likely person to be president at the end all of this. And that context is sometimes lost I think in the minute by minute look at the numbers here.

Nate Cohen said it really well at "The New York Times" last night. Sanders is at the point where when he falls back, he falls back even while seemingly to make progress. So, he needs 57 percent of delegates just to not fall further behind and he said, of course, even as he gets 57 percent, he still has to keep doing that in more diverse, affluent states.

To me, that is the cold, hard reality of this. And as much as Sanders supporters like to complain about the media narrative surrounding their favorite candidate, the narrative is there for a reason.

ROMANS: Right. Did you just call a 74-year-old socialist a home boy? I do love --

MARQUEZ: He's a New York home boy.

(CROSSTALK)

MARQUEZ: I think his supporters would like that.

ROMANS: I want to listen to something that Bernie Sanders said about the superdelegates, because the narrative has been that she has worked long and hard to secure these superdelegates, that she has them and this is going to be her ultimate advantage.

Listen to what Bernie Sanders said about that.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP) SANDERS: I think that a lot of these superdelegates are going to look around them and be saying which candidate has the momentum? Which candidate is bringing out huge numbers of people and creating huge --

(CHEERS)

Which candidate can bring out large numbers of people.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ROMANS: Josh, is he right?

ROGIN: No, he's not right. I mean, don't you think the GOP would love to have a few hundred superdelegates right about now?

I mean, listen, this is the sort of open secret about these primaries. It's not really about just the voters. The party has a big influence here. It was set up just for this scenario.

So, when you have somebody like Bernie Sanders, who's an insurgent candidate, who's got a ton of ground support, but who is not a lifelong Democrat, and hasn't spent the last 25 years rounding up support inside the party like Hillary Clinton has, this is a way for the party to make sure that the establishment gets its way. And it's likely to succeed.

You know, Bernie Sanders making his pitch, but you talk to the superdelegates, we all do, it's just not playing out the way that he says it.

(CROSSTALK)

STELTER: Let's remember, in some ways it is true that Sanders has in some ways already won. I know it's a cliche, people hate to hear it, but by having -- by forcing Clinton change her tone on a variety of issues, this race is very different than it would have been a year ago.

ROMANS: Some would say she hasn't changed her tone enough or she would be winning the young people and those independents.

STELTER: That's interesting.

ROMANS: All right. Thanks to everybody. Thanks to everybody.

OK. Three states moving forward now with religious freedom laws. The critics say it legalizes discrimination. One state in particular where gays can now be denied services. We'll tell you the new consequences, next.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[04:57:24] ROMANS: This morning, Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland returns to Capitol Hill for more meetings with lawmakers. His first sit-down with a Republican Senator John Bozeman of Arkansas went exactly as expected yesterday. Bozeman told Judge Garland he will not get a confirmation hearing. This morning, the Supreme Court nominee meets with several Democratic senators.

MARQUEZ: And new developments in three southern states that are moving forward with a controversial religious freedom laws that LGBT advocates are calling discriminatory. In Mississippi, Governor Phil Bryant signed a bill that allows people with religious objections to deny services to gay couples.

In Tennessee, lawmakers are moving ahead on a bill that would allow therapists and marriage counselors to turn away gay patients without risk of legal consequences. And PayPal is canceling plans to open a new global operations center in Charlotte because of North Carolina's controversial new transgender bathroom law, a move that will cost North Carolina 400 jobs.

ROMANS: All right. Time for an EARLY START on your money.

Dow futures pointing higher this morning. A rebound in crude oil prices. Stock markets in Europe are higher. Shares in Asia closed slightly lower.

Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders frequently claim that America's unemployment rate is higher than 5 percent.

Now, a Wall Street bank agrees with them. But the theory is, it's more math than politics here. The real jobless rate is more like 6 percent. That's what a report from Bank of America Merrill Lynch says.

The bank thinks more than 10 million people want a job and can't find one, that's 2 million more than the official number from the government. Eight million want a job and can't find one. That's what the government number show. That increase would boost the unemployment rate.

We've seen signs of this recently in the official data. The labor force participation rate has been rising since September. As hiring picks up, more people are encouraged to start looking for jobs again. So, those people who have been --

(CROSSTALK)

MARQUEZ: Pretty typical numbers, typical situation, people looking for jobs again.

EARLY START continues right now.

(MUSIC)

MARQUEZ: A critical point in the race for president. The Republican Party moves closer to a historic contested convention. Ted Cruz crushing front-runner Donald Trump in the Wisconsin primary.

ROMANS: Bernie Sanders gaining momentum. Another big win for him against Hillary Clinton. Is the Democratic front-runner in danger of losing the nomination?

Good morning. Welcome to EARLY START. I'm Christine Romans.

MARQUEZ: And I'm Miguel Marquez. It is Wednesday, April 6th, 5:00 a.m. here on the East Coast.

Our breaking news this morning, the crucial primary wins for Ted Cruz and Bernie Sanders, victories in Wisconsin that keep the two candidates viable and that are shaking up the race for president. On the Republican side, with 99 percent of the vote counted, Cruz soars 13 past national frontrunner Donald Trump, netting 48 percent of the vote.