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FBI Releases 2021 U.S. Crime Report with Low Participation; U.S. Private Employers Added 208,000 Jobs in September; Retailers Already Rolling Out Holiday Season Deals. Aired 5:30-6a ET

Aired October 06, 2022 - 05:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[05:34:20]

CHRISTINE ROMANS, CNN ANCHOR: All right. The FBI releasing its 2021 Crime in the Nation report which estimates a 1 percent decline in violent crime from 2020. It says that is largely driven by a nearly 9 percent drop in robberies. The FBI also reported homicides increased more than 4 percent between 2020 and 2021.

However, the report is not exactly the comprehensive snapshot it used to be. Only 63 percent of the nation's more than 1800 -- 18,000, rather, law enforcement agencies voluntarily submitted data. That's the lowest level of participation since at least 1979 and only 52 percent of all agencies submitted a full year's worth of data. And remember, crime is second only to inflation as a top issue for midterm voters.

[05:35:05]

Let's bring in Jillian Snider, policy director for Criminal Justice and Civil Liberties at the R Street Institute.

Nice to see you this morning, Jillian. Why have some of the largest police departments failed to turn in this data to the FBI?

JILLIAN SNIDER, POLICY DIRECTOR, CRIMINAL JUSTICE AND CIVIL LIBERTIES, R STREET INSTITUTE: Good morning. Thank you for having me. The NIBRS or the National Incident Base Reporting System, it's very different from the traditional reporting methods we used to use in policing. So we used to just track eight major index crimes and now we're tracking over 50 different types of offenses.

ROMANS: So we don't have the full picture. It's kind of a shame when this is such an important issue to so many Americans that we don't have the full picture here. And I wonder if part of it, too, is that, you know, crime is kind of local, right? I mean, this is -- it's different all over the country.

SNIDER: Yes. I mean, this is a really good tool to use when it's used properly, when we have more agencies reporting. I mean, we have under, what, 65 percent total compliance and that really is not representative of the nation at large because some of the agencies that reported might only really represent a small population within that state. So, for example, in New York we only saw I think 25 percent of the agencies in the state and 44 percent of the state's population lives in the five boroughs and the NYPD did not report.

So, really, looking at it that way, this report will one day be very valuable when we have more compliance but for now we should just take it -- use it for historical trends and tracking purposes but really not rely on this to implement new policy.

ROMANS: So a lot of experts say that the data -- so is it -- at most it's uncertain. So how dangerous is that? I mean, because you do have governments and police departments that have to make their policies.

SNIDER: They do, and, I mean, again, they can't just look at this. This can't be the only tool that we use because as you said a few minutes ago, crime is local. It's very different jurisdiction to jurisdiction. I like to look at New York City Police Department, for example, if you look at what the FBI put out yesterday, we have a pretty consistent trend. About 1 percent up or down on overall violent crime.

They're reporting that robberies decreased over 8 percent, whereas homicides increased over 4 percent. If you look at the NYPD today, we're seeing a 36 percent increase in robberies. That is so different from what the FBI is reporting on a national level. So whenever we're looking at changing any types of policy or implementing different types of police programming, we really have to look at the jurisdiction at hand because we can't think every agency is the same.

ROMANS: Yes. It's a shame that you can't get kind of a better picture when, you know, this is something that obviously the polls show people are very anxious about crime in America.

Jillian Snider of the R Street Institute, thank you so much. Nice to see you this morning.

SNIDER: Thank you.

ROMANS: All right. Just ahead, prices at the grocery store. Will shoppers see some relief any time soon? And right now a new crew is streaking into space bound for the International Space Station.

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[05:42:23]

ROMANS: Let's get a check on CNN Business this morning looking at markets around the world. You can see Asian shares have closed mixed. Europe has opened very narrowly mixed. And on Wall Street, stock index futures are leaning lower here this morning.

It's a really choppy day yesterday. Stocks climbed back from steep early losses to close slightly lower, barely lower. Essentially a pause from a monster two-day stock rally to begin the month of October. Rising 10-year treasury yields reflecting ongoing concerns about higher interest rates and recession risks.

All eyes on how the jobs market is holding up. ADP reported U.S. private employers stepped up hiring in September adding 208,000 jobs. The government's official jobs report for September is due tomorrow. Gas prices jumped 4 cents overnight to $3.87 a gallon.

Let's bring in Nela Richardson, chief economist for the payroll company ADP which prepares those numbers.

And Nela, finish this sentence for me. The American job market is --

NELA RICHARDSON, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ADP: Steady for now.

ROMANS: Steady for now.

RICHARDSON: So what we mean by that -- steady for now. What we mean by that is that if you start with that last BLS government report in August, we did see something, Christine. And good morning, by the way. That was good news. We saw a bit more people into the labor market. Labor force participation rate ticked up. And then you fast forward to September we saw solid hiring from private companies. We saw 208,000 jobs mainly in the service sector, professional business services, trade, utilities, education and health services.

A lot of things have come together in the month of September. Schools are fully in session. We have that fiscal policy. The direct payments to household that's faded. And there's a need now to get back into the office or the workplace. And we saw that in September. Whether it holds or not will be dependent on people coming back into the market.

ROMANS: So people coming back into the market is so important, and here's why. We know the Fed wants to see a higher unemployment rate, right? And that could mean either people losing their jobs, and the jobless rate rises, or it could mean some combination of that and a lot of people coming back into the labor market and then you have the unemployment rate rising for that reason, right?

RICHARDSON: Right. This is -- this market has been all about timing since the pandemic began. First, you know, workers wanted to stay working, and companies laid them off or furloughed them. And companies really wanted them back and workers are like, no, I'm good at home for a little bit longer.

[05:45:00]

And so now we may be in this very scenario that you paint, Christine, where companies are slowing or freezing hiring. And we've seen large companies make those public announcements when workers are really ready to get back into the workplace. And so for the Fed it's really managing this timing. They'd like to see the labor market loosen because they don't want wages to spike up so much that they can contribute to inflation.

ROMANS: I know, there's your alarm. Wake up.

RICHARDSON: Sorry.

ROMANS: That's all right. Look, what we're seeing is so interesting in the job market, but we want to see it start to cool a little bit, right? Cool down a little bit. I mean, we're looking at 3.5 million jobs created this year. That's a lot of jobs. The average is something like 438,000 a month. You want to see these numbers start to cool. That would be a good thing.

RICHARDSON: Right. You'd like to see just a more -- a still solid wage gains. I push back against the notion that the Fed really wants to see a big uptick in the unemployment rate. We are getting a little help on that front. We've seen the number of job postings. So this is early demand for firms come down by a million last month. That's significant. But still the high pace of hiring stayed steady.

What they don't want to see is this continued escalation in wages in which wages chased the price of inflation that we've seen in the market and you really have a hard time backing out of a wage price spiral.

ROMANS: Nela Richardson of ADP, always nice to see you. Good morning and thank you.

RICHARDSON: Thanks for having me.

ROMANS: All right. 46 minutes past the hour. The family of Halyna Hutchins, the cinematographer fatally shot on the "Rust" movie set reaching a settlement with Alec Baldwin and producers in a wrongful death suit. Hutchins was killed when a gun held by Baldwin went off. As part of the settlement, Hutchins' widower will be an executive producer on the film which is scheduled to resume production in January. Director Joel Souza who was injured in the shooting is expected to return.

Coming up, the new court ruling that throws the future of the DACA program into question again. And Christmas in October? Bah humbug. Why stores are starting the holiday season so early.

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[05:51:40]

ROMANS: All right. Almost three weeks to go until Halloween but it's beginning to look a lot like Christmas in stores already. There's a name for that, you know. Call it Christmas creep.

Let's bring in CNN consumer reporter Nathaniel Meyersohn.

Nice to see you here. The question is why? And I think I know the answer. It's because they want our money.

NATHANIEL MEYERSOHN, CNN CONSUMER CORRESPONDENT: So retailers are starting their holiday deals earlier than ever this year, Christine. Amazon is even adding a second Prime day next week. It's never done that before. Retailers really want us to start thinking about what holiday gifts we're buying, who's on the holiday shopping list. They're realty trying to get us to spend early.

They also are dealing with this problem of excess inventory. They have too much clothing, too many sweatpants, electronics. They want to mark it down so they can clear it off the shelves. So this is all good news for shoppers. If you're an early bird, you're going to have some good deals in October. The Black Friday deals next month will be strong. And then if you want to wait until the last minute, there are going to be some good deals down the stretch.

ROMANS: Yes. That will be deepest markdowns when they find out what they have left at the end of the season that they have to get rid of. Hopefully that's good for inflation, the inflation story if you've got these big retailers marking down items. But the other part of the inflation story is grocery prices. Those were up more than 13 percent in August from a year ago. When are people going to start feeling relief at the grocery store?

MEYERSOHN: Well, yes. Grocery prices right now are uncomfortably high. The highest level of inflation in 40 years. Analysts expect this level of inflation to continue through the rest of the year and even into early next year on food prices. We have the war in Ukraine that's driven up grain and fertilizer prices. Extreme weather events and climate change driven events have impacted crops and growing season. That's pushed up prices.

So analysts expect that inflation is going to start to moderate for food in the back half of next year and even as it starts to slow down it doesn't necessarily mean relief for shoppers. What's going to start to happen is the promotions will come back. Buy one get one free. 99 cents for two liter Coke bottle, that sort of thing. We haven't seen as many of those promotions recently.

ROMANS: Finally, free samples are back at Trader Joe's. Is it just a post-pandemic change? Why are they bringing that back?

MEYERSOHN: Here's some good news for shoppers. Yes, customers who went to Trader Joe's over the weekend saw free samples for the first time since the pandemic started. Costco, Whole Foods, Sam's Club, they're also bringing back free samples. Free samples are an important strategy for stores. They get customers to linger for longer. They get their appetites going. And then for the new food brands, it's a way for them to get discovered.

So Trader Joe's says it's going to be focused on new products for its free samples. And I spoke with one sample expert who said that 2023 is going to be, quote, "huge year for samples."

ROMANS: A year of the sample. 2023. Nathaniel Meyersohn, our consumer reporter at the CNN Business. Thank you, nice to see you this morning.

All right, NASA and SpaceX launching three astronauts and a Russian cosmonaut on a mission to the International Space Station.

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UNIDENTIFIED MALE: Six, five, four, three, two, one. Ignition.

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ROMANS: The crew members include Nicole Mann, the first Native American woman in space and the first female commander of the SpaceX mission. They're due for a six-month stay in orbit.

[05:55:02] The Crew Dragon spacecraft is expected to dock with the space station today around 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time.

All right, changes to the NFL's concussion protocol could come later today a source tells CNN. Andy Scholes has this morning's "Bleacher Report."

Hey, Andy.

ANDY SCHOLES, CNN SPORTS ANCHOR: Yes, good morning, Christine. So, you know, the NFL said changes were coming after what transpired with Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa a week ago.

Week five of the NFL season kicks off tonight. And ahead of that the league is expected to announce the new concussion protocols. Among the new rules anticipated is that if any player shows any gross motor instability, they will be removed from the game and will not be allowed back.

Now Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow meanwhile telling Colin Cowherd he's been hit in the head in a game before but he kept playing, and can't remember some of those games. Burrow, though, says he knows the risks of playing football.

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JOE BURROW, CINCINNATI BENGALS QUARTERBACK: You can make all the rules you want to make the game as safe as you possibly can, but there's an inherent risk and danger with the game of football. You're going to have head injuries. You're going to tear your ACL. You're going to break your arm. That's the game that we play. That's the life that we live. And we get paid handsomely for it.

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SCHOLES: All right. The protester who ran on to the field during Monday night's game has filed a police complaint against Rams linebacker Bobby Wagner who laid him out. The complaint was filed with the Santa Clara Police Department on Tuesday afternoon claiming blatant assault. The organization behind the protest says the man suffered a burn injury during the incident but is otherwise in good spirits.

All right, LeBron and the Lakers meanwhile taking on the Suns in a pre-season game in Las Vegas last night. After the game LeBron saying that if the NBA expands to Sin City, he wants to own the team.

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LEBRON JAMES, LOS ANGELES LAKERS FORWARD: I would love to bring a team here at some point. That would be amazing. Now I know Adam is in Abu Dhabi right now, I believe. That's where they at right now? Yes, with the Bucs in Atlanta so -- but he probably sees every single interview and transcript that comes through from NBA players so I want a team here, Adam. Thank you.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCHOLES: Waiting to see if that happens.

All right, yesterday in the last day of the Major League Baseball season and we had some really cool moments. Astros reliever Phil Maton taking the mound against his younger brother Nick Maton of the Phillies. Phil and Nick, despite only being four years apart in age, never faced each other competitively at any point in their lives. And both dugouts were really into this at-bat. It would be Nick getting the win against older brother. He gets the base hit into right. The Phillies dugout was going nuts when he did that even asking to get the ball.

Meanwhile, in Oakland veteran catcher Stephen Vogt had his entire family on hand for the final game of his 10-year career.

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UNIDENTIFIED CHILDREN: Our daddy. Our dad. The number 21. Stephen Vogt.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

SCHOLES: Got to love that. Our dad. Now that was certainly cool. But even cooler, in the bottom of the seventh in the final at-bat of his career, Vogt gets ahold of that one. A homerun to right. You see him dancing around the bases. His family and the entire crowd in Oakland just going nuts giving him a standing ovation. Vogt saying after it was a thrilling moment and he felt like a kid pretending to be Will Clark in his yard all over again.

And I tell you what, Christine. You know, we've seen a lot of farewells in baseball. I'm not sure it gets any better than that.

ROMANS: Perfect.

SCOLES: The whole family there. Homering his last ever at-bat. So cool.

ROMANS: I mean, that is the story I needed for the rest of the day, Andy. Thank you very much. That was the feel-good story of the day and congratulations to him. And he's going to have a terrific time with his kids and family in retirement.

All right, Andy Scholes, thank you so much.

That's it for me today. I'm Christine Romans. "NEW DAY" starts right now.

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