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Growing Fears Iran Could Block Strait Of Hormuz In Retaliation; CNN Crew Witnesses Major Israeli Airstrike In Tehran; China's U.N. Envoy Condemns U.S. Strikes On Iran. Aired 4:30-5a ET

Aired June 23, 2025 - 04:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.

[04:30:00]

BECKY ANDERSON, CNN ANCHOR: Well, we're seeing what is a turnaround in the oil futures markets were higher, up more than 2 percent earlier, following the weekend strikes. They are now slightly lower. Of course, people trading these, both the U.S. and oil futures and the global benchmark brant crude slightly lower as we speak.

There have been concerns amongst economists that Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for these U.S. strikes, potentially disrupting a considerable chunk of global oil and gas, which uses that waterway.

With us now from Dubai, is the head of Middle East energy and OPEC plus insights at Kpler, Amena Bakr.

Thanks for joining us, Amena.

When we think of Iran's options and they are clearly mulling their options at this point, we've heard vows of a strong response. Impacting this Strait of Hormuz is high on the list. What's your assessment of the likelihood of that possibility and its consequences?

AMENA BAKR, HEAD OF MIDDLEEAST ENERGY AND OPEC+ INSIGHTS, KPLER: Thank you for having me, Becky.

Yeah, as you said, I mean, this the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has been high on the list and something that Iranian officials have been mentioning over and over again that they would block the strait if the U.S. enters the war against Iran. Now, yesterday, there were headlines saying that the parliament had approved this, but they would need approval from another body in Iran to actually do this.

But our assessment, Becky, is that this is not going to happen. This is not in Iran's interest and absolutely not in Iran's allies' interests. And I'm talking about China here and China receives 50 percent of its supplies through the strait.

So, we think that it's highly unlikely that we do get a blockage in Hormuz.

ANDERSON: That's really interesting because we have heard a chorus of Trump administration officials responding to the possibility of Iran closing the strait. Let's -- have a listen.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

J.D. VANCE, VICE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES: I think that would be suicidal, Kristen, for the Iranians themselves. I mean, their entire economy runs through the Strait of Hormuz. If they want to destroy their own economy and cause disruptions in the world, I think that would be their decision.

MARCO RUBIO, SECRETARY OF STATE: If they mine the Straits of Hormuz, the Chinese are going to pay a huge price, and every other country in the world is going to pay a huge price. We will, too.

It will have some impact on us. It will have a lot more impact on the rest of the world, a lot more impact on the rest of the world. It would be a suicidal move on their part, because I think the whole world would come against them if they did that.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Suicide for Iran then is certainly what these U.S. officials are saying. What you're saying is that at present, you don't think that that is an option they will take because their allies, Iran's allies, to a degree, that being one being China, a huge importer of its oil, would be impacted by that.

It has, of course, better relations with most of the Gulf neighbors as well, who would be impacted by that? Not oil, of course. Not all. But many like the UAE, Saudi, Qatar, for example. Just explain to our viewers for some context just how important that Strait of Hormuz is. Just what is going through that on a daily basis?

BAKR: A third of the worlds supplies, Becky, goes through the Strait of Hormuz. So if we do see in fact, any blockage or threats previously were even saying that Iran might be laying mines in the strait, that means that we would see oil prices jump to the three-digit zone.

The reason that we're seeing a very modest increase in the price, 2 percent, isn't a lot, is that traders already factored in a lot of these risks, and were not seeing disruption to supply. And that's something gulf states are looking very, very closely at.

If you're looking at the OPEC states, for example, Becky, particularly I'm talking about the UAE and Saudi Arabia, they're not seeing a disruption here. So there is no need for them to add additional supplies. But just think one thing about Hormuz that I'll mention again, there is a way to divert some of these volumes away from Hormuz.

And I'm talking about producers here in the gulf. You have the pipeline in Saudi Arabia, the east west pipeline, which has a capacity of around 7 million barrels a day, and you have another pipeline in the UAE with a capacity of 1.5 million barrels a day, that could divert some of these volumes away from the strait. If there is indeed any blockage. ANDERSON: Yeah. No, those are -- those are both very important

pipelines. And you're right to bring them up. Look, let's have a look at these oil prices then. I mean, look, they are pretty much flat. Weve seen, you know, an uptick on the futures market today. And we've also seen the prices in the red slightly.

But we haven't, as you rightly point out, seen a significant uptick during this crisis.

[04:35:00]

CNN's Anna Stewart did some digging on oil price comparison over the past decade. Let's just get that context for our viewers. Stand by.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

ANNA STEWART, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Here, we can see some of the oil price spikes of the last ten years. This one's very noticeable. This is the invasion of Ukraine. Oil prices were around $120.

You can see the pandemic. This is where oil prices actually crashed. And the big rebound in 2021, 2022. Now this one is harder to see, but it's really relevant for now.

This is 2019, key oil facilities in Saudi Arabia were attacked. Houthi rebels in Yemen claimed responsibility, but the U.S. said it thought Iran was behind it and oil prices here actually surged by 20 percent.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: And if you go back further, of course, back into the to the '70s, you know, strategic moments in this region would be really impactful on oil prices. And, Amena, I think, you know, when we consider a U.S. strike on Iran following Israeli strikes on Iran, the risk profile for that, you would expect under normal circumstances would be high enough to really push these prices higher.

So again, let's just explain a little further and a little deeper why it is that you think these prices are doing what they are doing today and what your forecast is for them going forward?

BAKR: Absolutely. Becky, I agree with you 100 percent that the geopolitical premium is not being considered here and the risk factor, too. If you would have told me that the U.S. is going to be launching an attack against Iran 10 years ago, 15 years ago, I would have said yes, oil prices would jump to $100, but we're not seeing that now.

The market seems -- I mean, over the past couple of years, the market has been kind of immune to the geopolitical risk that's coming in the region. And they're not factoring in maybe incorrectly, they're not realizing that the potential of possible disruptions here.

But just one thing to factor in is that we haven't seen a loss of supply. The market is still well supplied. So, on the fundamental side, everyone kind of has that comfort. But anything that can happen and we're in a very volatile situation now, it's very difficult to predict where prices are going to end up, that this war -- I mean, it's not ending anytime soon. We're not seeing diplomatic means prevail over what's happening.

So, we see prices actually staying in the kind of range 78, 79 for the time being. But saying that the situation is absolutely volatile, so anything could happen.

ANDERSON: Amena, it's always good to have you. Thank you very much indeed, out of Dubai today. Thank you.

All right. CNN's breaking news coverage continues after this short break. We're going to follow the aftermath of those U.S. strikes over the weekend on Iran's nuclear facilities and find out from the U.S. what the assessment there is of the damage wrought.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

[04:42:44]

ANDERSON: Coverage this hour on CNN team in Iran's capital has witnessed a major Israeli aerial bombing on the north of the city. The crew heard several jets pass overhead before a series of strong explosions rocked the building they were in. It is unclear what the target of that building was, but the northwestern area of Tehran was covered in thick black smoke in the immediate aftermath.

Well, Iran's foreign minister says the U.S. has decided to, quote, blow up diplomacy, and Iranian military officials say they will respond with powerful and targeted operations after the U.S., quote, directly entered the war with its attack, they say.

Well, let's get more now from Hasan Alhasan. He's a senior fellow for Middle East Policy at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. He joins me live now from Manama in Bahrain.

Hasan, let's just get our viewers bang up to date here. Weve just heard from our correspondent on the ground that there have been significant aerial activity and attacks over where he is in Tehran. We've also last hour been speaking to one of our correspondents who was in a bunker in Tel Aviv, after a second wave of incoming strikes from Iran on Israel overnight.

So that exchange goes on in the wake of what were these weekend U.S. strikes, which was effectively the beginning of any involvement by the U.S. in this fight.

And let's just get your perspective of specifically and briefly, what we have seen over the past 24, 48 hours.

HASAN ALHASAN, SENIOR FELLOW FOR MIDDLE EAST POLICY, IISS: Yes. So, the U.S. involvement is a big game changer, potentially for the U.S., but also clearly for Iran and Israel. Clearly, this is an outcome that Israel has wanted all along and has been pushing for greater U.S. involvement.

And yesterday evening, Israel's chief of defense staff stated that Israel still has objectives that has yet to accomplish in Iran. I think he might be referring to the fact that the fate of Iran's uranium stockpile remains unknown. It's not entirely clear that that stockpile has been destroyed in the U.S. attacks.

[04:45:01]

And so this is something that the Iranians that the Israelis pardon might still be after. And I think from the Iranian perspective, I think one of their key goals is to be able to continue to lob missiles at Israel until the very last day of this conflict. I think essentially, the Iranians know that they have to weather this round of fighting, and that means protecting the supreme leader from being potentially targeted or assassinated. It means ensuring the internal coherence of Iran and that the people continue to rally around the flag. And it means retaining the capability to impose a cost on Israel until the very last day of this conflict.

So I think, you know, we're in a particularly intense --

(CROSSTALK)

ALHASAN: Yeah. Go ahead.

ANDERSON: Yeah, it is a particularly intense time. I spoke to the special advisor to the UAE president, Anwar Gargash here just back end of last week. And he -- you know, he described then what is going on as a sort of geostrategic shift. The, you know, rise in frankly, preeminence of the Israeli military, certainly with this superiority in air power, clearing the skies, as it were over, over Iran. And its superiority there clearly a weakened Iran at this point, vowing revenge, vowing that it will be -- you know, it's response will be strong, but it's very difficult to say what that response will be. And now we've got U.S. involvement.

Anwar Gargash went on to say this to me, this war flies in the face of the regional order that the Gulf countries want to build, which is focused on regional prosperity. We feel that this is setting us back, not only us in the UAE, but I would say the region you sit in, Bahrain, by the way, you know, not a long way away from Iran and there have been real concerns. I know there is a feeling of anxiety as to what the impact might be there, of what is going on in Iran.

Are these concerns that Anwar voices, Mr. Gargash's voices grounded concerns and reflected around this region?

ALHASAN: Yeah. So, Becky, I couldn't agree more with that assessment. I think we really are seeing a culmination of the seismic paradigm shift in the Middle East regional security order really culminates since October 23rd, 2023.

I think this is a process that has been in train for about the past one and a half years, but we really are, I think, at its culmination point. Let's remember that the Gulf states had really placed big bets on President Trump as peacemaker. Weve heard senior gulf officials, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, say this very clearly at Davos. And I've heard senior gulf officials repeat this in private. There was a big sense of optimism that the Gulf states now having

managed and de-escalated relations with their regional rivals, Turkey, Iran having repaired relations among themselves and have now sort of positioned themselves very well for a future predicated on trade, interconnection, manufacturing, and A.I.

And the Gulf states were riding high following President Trump's tour of the region just two months ago. I think we're now looking at a very different kind of future for the Gulf region, one in which the Middle East is essentially dominated by an Israel that sees itself as a fortified garrison that seeks to manage its own sort of threat environment purely through the use of brute military force and essentially a recipe for permanent and protracted conflict and instability.

And I think it's quite obvious that this is anathema to the Gulf states vision of a regionally, economically integrated order of mutual and shared prosperity.

Now there's the question of how Iran reacts --

ANDERSON: Yeah, they're not just bystanders at this point, are they? Yeah. Go.

ALHASAN: Well, I agree, I think, you know, the Gulf states do have some agency, but I think at the moment it's quite limited. It's quite limited because what they can do at the moment is to offer their good offices for mediation. But I'm not sure that there are any takers. The Iranians have continued to reject the zero enrichment policy that the U.S. and Israel want to want to impose, and I think the Israelis are clearly in no mood to de-escalate at the moment.

So the Gulf states are putting up an offer of mediation --

ANDERSON: Hasan, I have to leave it there, because I've got to take a break. Yeah, it's and -- it's always good to have you.

[04:50:01]

And we'll have you back -- your analysis so thoughtful. Thank you very much indeed.

Hasan Alhasan in the house.

We will be right back.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

ANDERSON: Well, China's ambassador to the United Nations condemned the U.S. strikes on Iran on Sunday and accused the U.S. of violating the U.N. charter. He called for an immediate ceasefire and proposed a new draft resolution, along with Russia and Pakistan.

Let's get you live to CNN's Beijing bureau chief, Steven Jiang, for more on China's reaction.

The U.S. also asking China to get involved and prevent Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz.

Steven, what do we know at this point?

[04:55:00]

STEVEN JIANG, CNN BEIJING BUREAU CHIEF: That's right, Becky. You know, you have also heard similarly worded, very strong condemnation here in Beijing as well. Now, it's interesting because China has always tried to portray itself as a neutral party in this conflict. But when you zoom closer, they do have a lot of stakes here, especially in terms of their energy needs, because China does rely heavily on oil imports from the Persian Gulf to power its economy. The world's second biggest.

So, they simply do not want to see a major disruption to this flow of energy, especially at a time when their economy is facing a lot of challenges. That's why they have expressed concerns over all this talk about the closing of the Strait of Hormuz as well, because when you look at the data, just doing the first three months of 2025 every day, China imported 5.4 million barrels of crude oil through that narrow strait.

And the other thing to remember, of course, is that 90 percent of Iranian oil exports now go to China. So, Beijing really has been helping Tehran evade sanctions while getting a discounted price of crude oil in this process. So, it has been a win-win arrangement.

That's why in recent years you have seen Beijing increasingly trying to pull Tehran into its orbit by approving Iranian memberships in all sorts of global organizations it dominates, but also including around Chinese leader Xi Jinping's belt and road initiative. That's, of course, the global infrastructure scheme.

And right before the Israeli strikes, actually, the two countries launched a new freight train service. So that is obviously being impacted as well. So, all of that is to say, Becky, China has a lot of stakes in keeping the current Iranian regime intact instead of seeing a collapse like what happened in Syria -- Becky.

ANDERSON: Good to have you out of Beijing today. China, with a real iron in the fire in all of this. Thank you.

We are taking a very short break. Back with another hour of breaking news for you after this short break.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)