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Iran Warns Of "Everlasting Consequences" After U.S. Strikes; Growing Fears Iran Could Block Strait Of Hormuz In Retaliation; France, Germany, And UK Seek To Defuse Israel-Iran Conflict. Aired 5:30-6a ET

Aired June 23, 2025 - 05:30   ET

THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.


[05:30:00]

BECKY ANDERSON, CNN ANCHOR, "CONNECT THE WORLD": Well, President Trump claiming Iran's nuclear facilities have been "obliterated." Some Iranian officials downplaying the impact of those U.S. weekend strikes. Experts say it's too soon to frankly know the full extent of the damage underground, specifically on Iran's stockpiles of enriched nuclear material.

Well, CNN has learned President Trump offered Iran that supposed two- week window late last week to return to the negotiating table as a ruse to conceal its attack plans and throw off the Iranians. And this according to several sources familiar with the plans. They tell us the president had already been leaning heavily towards striking Iran for several days before that announcement.

Well, the U.N. Security Council met Sunday to discuss U.S. strikes on Iran. The council members -- Russia, China, and Pakistan -- have proposed a count -- a resolution calling for an immediate end to the conflict. And the council also heard from the ambassadors of both Iran and Israel.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

AMIR-SAEID IRAVANI, IRANIAN AMBASSADOR TO THE UNITED NATIONS: The timing, nature, and the scale of Iran's proportionate response will be decided by its armed forces. Throughout history the resilient and united Iranian nation has withstood deeper wounded and faced more vicious enemies and this time, too, it will show its dignity, its strength and greatness to the world.

DANNY DANON, ISRAELI AMBASSADOR TO THE UNITED NATIONS: To those who now fake concern and cry escalation we say this is what the last line of defense looks like when every other line has failed. Make no mistake, the cost of inaction would have been catastrophic. A nuclear Iran would have been a death sentence just as much for you as it would have been for us.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

ANDERSON: Well, Mohammad Ali Shabani is a Middle East scholar and editor of Amwaj.media, well sources in Iran, joins me from London today.

The Iranian foreign minister is in Moscow. We last saw him in Geneva on Friday -- and we see him here -- and in Istanbul over the weekend. He was talking to the Europeans and the Turks just before these U.S. strikes. But now it does look as if he is turning to Russia.

Why? What's the goal of today's trip to Moscow?

MOHAMMAD ALI SHABANI, EDITOR, AMWAJ.MEDIA, MIDDLE EAST SCHOLAR: Thank you.

I think the overarching objective here is to rally support from several of Iran's allies, whether from Russia, whether from China, whether from Turkey, and its partners in the region as well amid the onslaught by Israel and the U.S. And I imagine on a private level probably requesting support in the form of equipment to counter Israeli attacks. I'm not so sure whether Moscow will be forthcoming on that.

And as a third point I would argue that perhaps they are sending messages to the Russians to try to contain any potential U.S. bombing that may come about as a result of expected Iranian retaliation for bombing of the nuclear sites the other day.

So these are --

ANDERSON: Yeah.

SHABANI: -- you know, a cascade --

ANDERSON: It's a really --

SHABANI: -- of events --

ANDERSON: Yeah.

SHABANI: -- that they're trying to foresee.

ANDERSON: It's a really interesting role that Moscow might or could play here.

Just explain its relations with Iran at this point and what sort of role it might play on, for example -- and this sounds sort of ironic, but on behalf of Washington in mediating here.

SHABANI: Well, Iran and Russia have not had the best of relations historically. There has been great mistrust of Russia. But having said that since 2022, with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the relationship shifted quite a lot. There's unprecedented military cooperation now, yet there are not high expectations in Iran that Russia is going to come bail out Iran or save it from any attacks.

So I think part of the discussions in Moscow today has to with, again, rallying support and maybe gaining access to some gear to help lessen the onslaught from Israel. But the most -- I think the most important element of this kind of

outreach and this engagement is to try to find a way to get Russia to moderate the United States because I believe that Iranians have decided to respond --

ANDERSON: Hmm.

SHABANI: -- to the U.S. bombing of their nuclear sites and they want to control the escalation if there are -- if there's going to be any escalation.

And here I think Trump's tweet about regime change, et cetera, it's quite alarming and they want to contain what's going to eventually come next.

ANDERSON: Look, I mean, there has been -- there have been vows by those officials that we have heard from in Iran of a strong response. The F.M. says Iran is considering its options. Iran's Parliament has endorsed the potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. officials have said that would be suicide for Iran.

[05:35:00]

How likely is a full or partial closure of that strategically important waterway for global oil and gas, especially considering the risks of alienating key trading partners like China, for example, and sort of those Gulf sort of friends (in inverted commas) who also rely on those waters?

SHABANI: I think closing that waterway is absolutely a last resort for Iran. One-fifth of the world's seaborne oil passes through there so I think almost immediately five million barrels a day is going to be knocked off the market. And I think any action like that is going to be likely accompanied with coordination with Iran's allies in Yemen to also shut down the Red Sea to maritime traffic. So it's going to be an absolute shock to the energy market.

But again, I think that's also suicidal in many ways because Iran's own crude oil exports, which continue throughout this conflict --

ANDERSON: Sure.

SHABANI: -- are going to be impacted obviously. Iran's trade with the world is going to be impacted. So I think they're saving that as a kind of weapon of last resort.

I think right now the focus in on trying to the United States -- signal to Trump that they need to respond with bombing obviously of their nuclear sites, but they want to contain the situation after that. They don't want further escalation.

And I think it's really key to get other partners who may be able to sway Trump, such as Putin maybe, such as Russia to prevent any further expansion of conflict.

ANDERSON: Mohammad, you and I have been talking for weeks, now months, and your insight and analysis over the year, very specifically over the past couple of weeks, has been so valuable. Thank you very much, indeed. Mohammad Ali Shabani on the show for you.

Still ahead economists are watching to see how these U.S. strikes then could impact oil prices in other areas of the global economy. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL)

[05:41:43]

ANDERSON: We are keeping an eye on the oil future markets following the U.S. strikes on Iran, and rightly so. Right now both U.S. oil futures and the global benchmark Brent Crude up once again. Let's have a look at the numbers. Up just shy of one percent on WTI. On Brent, again, up about four-fifths of one percent.

Keep your eyes on those because they are reflective generally of where people believe these markets are up. Particularly there have been concerns amongst economists that Iran may close the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for these U.S. strikes, potentially disrupting what would be a considerable chunk of global oil and gas, which is exported through that very strategic waterway.

With us now from Geneva is Dina Esfandiary, the Middle East geoeconomics lead for Bloomberg Economics. Thanks for joining us.

Let's talk about a couple of things here. Well, let's start with the Strait of Hormuz -- the potential for closing that down. That is one of a number of options that Iran is likely mulling. Officials -- and these are the foreign minister, the army general -- suggesting a strong response. Suggesting they are considering their options. At this point we haven't heard from the supreme leader, of course, in the wake of those U.S. strikes and we can talk perhaps about why.

But how do you read what its next -- what its next move might be with regard to its options at this point, Dina?

DINA ESFANDIARY, MIDDLE EAST GEOECONOMICS LEAD, BLOOMBERG ECONOMICS: Thanks for having me, Becky.

I don't think any of Iran's options looks good right now. It has to do something because it's cornered and internally the call for Iran to do something is getting louder and louder.

And so what are its options? The first is that it could strike at U.S. assets and personnel in the region. That would be a bold move and if it results in any civilian casualties -- U.S. civilian casualties then the Trump administration will be obliged to respond and then we find ourselves in an escalatory spiral.

It could target regional oil infrastructure. But it also doesn't want to do that because it has built these new relationships with the Gulf Arab states, and I think Iran would rather keep them on side rather than push them back into the arms of the U.S. And finally, as you mentioned, it could close the Strait of Hormuz. That would be somewhat of an own goal though because it would also make it more complicated for Iran to get its oil to the market.

So none of these options look good for Tehran right now.

ANDERSON: And let me tell you for our viewers' sake we're just looking at map here. So let's keep that up.

If you look to the right and left of the label there -- the Strait of Hormuz -- I can tell you that there are oil tankers absolutely backed up on both sides as they consider what is going on.

There was a -- there was a real concern about cyberattacks -- the jamming of satellites there. The potential for even mining those waters on the part of Iran. Shipping insurance costs going up as a result of it. So there is already an impact.

[05:45:00]

We're not seeing a massive impact on the oil price per se, and it's interesting. It almost feels like the oil market is sort of discounting these regional -- this regional instability, which is remarkable really. I mean, you and I I'm sure would agree if he told us five years ago -- even two years ago that the U.S. would bomb Iran in support of Israel's bombing of Iran and the oil prices wouldn't move much I think people would tell us we were mad.

We're just getting in fresh video from Moscow, Dina, where the Iranian foreign minister is meeting President Putin.

Just explain the significance of this meeting if you will.

ESFANDIARY: Well, Iran, you would have thought, would be able to rely on some of the partners it has in the region and outside of the region. But the problem is that many of its regional proxies have been severely weakened by 18 months of war with Israel -- from Hezbollah to Hamas. Even the Houthis, who appear to be the last man standing, still have been somewhat weakened by U.S. airstrikes. So it can't rely on them.

But Iran is not as isolated as it was a few years ago. It has new relationships. I mentioned the ones with the Gulf Arab states. And it's been really diligent in building relationships with the Russians and the Chinese. So it's going to try to capitalize on that. It's going to try to rely on them to push back as much as possible.

The problem is I don't think that Russia is in a position to do much other than strong rhetoric, which in all fairness, it has done. And China is not going to be very willing to get involved. China is going to be keen to safeguard its interests and its ability to access discounted Iranian oil. But that doesn't require much move on the international scene. Both of these countries are already bogged down in their own issues and so they're not going to want to come to Iran's defense in any meaningful way other than rhetoric.

ANDERSON: That's fascinating.

Sources have told CNN, Dina, that Trump directed staff to issue that two-week window that we head last week. Iran's got two weeks or up to two weeks to consider a diplomatic off-ramp here. And our viewers will remember that from last week. Now we're being told that was to conceal these weekend attack plans.

What do you think that will do to U.S. credibility not just in this situation but in other geopolitical discussions from this point on, I wonder?

ESFANDIARY: And so there's a lot of dynamics here at play because on the one hand we're hearing about how the U.S. did do these things to conceal what it really was planning on doing. But then on the other hand we're also hearing that the U.S. passed messages to Iran allegedly to give them a bit of a heads up that something was coming, to somewhat lessen the impact, and to make clear that if Iran were to return to the negotiating table then this would be just a one-off strike.

So again, this is very much in line with the Trump administration's kind of back-and-forth that we've seen over the course of the last few weeks where on various issues the -- I guess the red line for lack of a way -- a better way of putting it has been moving back and forth constantly.

So if you're sitting in Tehran --

ANDERSON: Yeah.

ESFANDIARY: -- at the moment it's -- you find yourself in a really difficult position because you can't read the United States. You can't tell what the U.S. wants, what it's hoping to achieve, and what it might do next, which means it's really difficult for you to calculate what you're going to do next and how to respond.

ANDERSON: Dina, always a pleasure. Thank you very much, indeed, for joining us. Dina Esfandiary is in Geneva for you today.

And we will be right back. I'm Becky Anderson from our Middle East programming headquarters here in Abu Dhabi.

(COMMERCIAL)

[05:53:30]

ANDERSON: U.S. Homeland Security warning of potential cyberthreats and lone wolf attacks in the wake of these weekend airstrikes in Iran. In a bulletin released on Sunday, the department said pro-Iranian activists and others affiliated with the Iranian government could target U.S. networks.

Now, U.S. officials believe the conflict could also motivate violent extremists to attack targets perceived to be Jewish or pro-Israel and others linked to the U.S. government or to the military. Well, the scene from New York to L.A. of protests organized across the

U.S. following President Trump's strikes on Iran. Demonstrators hit the streets urging the White House to stay out of the conflict in the Middle East. Some also highlighting growing concerns that the conflict is spreading and criticizing the relationship between the U.S. and Israel.

And in the wake of the strikes -- weekend strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities by Washington, America's European allies -- France, Germany, and the U.K. -- urging Iran to enter or engage in negotiations. All three reiterated their further stance against Iran acquiring a nuclear weapon speaking with Israeli and Iranian counterparts on Sunday. Britain's foreign secretary stressed the need for the two countries to de-escalate.

French President Emmanuel Macron also weighing in, voicing his desire to see a diplomatic resolution to the conflict.

(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)

EMMANUEL MACRON, FRENCH PRESIDENT (through translator): We call on everyone that there be no escalation. I am convinced that no strictly military response will produce the effect that we seek. Restarting diplomatic and technical talks is the only way to achieve the objective we are all seeking, that Iran may not acquire nuclear weapons, but also that there be no uncontrollable escalation in the region.

(END VIDEO CLIP)

[05:55:18]

ANDERSON: Well, before I leave you, I want to return to this region. Anwar Gargash, special adviser to the UAE president, describes this moment in time as a geostrategic shift and told me "This war flies in the face of the regional order the Gulf countries want to build, which is focused on regional prosperity. We feel that this is setting us back, not only us in the UAE, but I would say the region."

Thanks for joining us. I'm Becky Anderson in Abu Dhabi. "CNN THIS MORNING" is next.