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Early Start with Rahel Solomon
CNN: Talarico Wins Senate Democratic Primary In Texas; Trump Threatens To Cut Trade With Spain Over NATO Frictions; Travelers Stranded By Flight Disruptions In Middle East. Aired 5:30-6a ET
Aired March 04, 2026 - 05:30 ET
THIS IS A RUSH TRANSCRIPT. THIS COPY MAY NOT BE IN ITS FINAL FORM AND MAY BE UPDATED.
[05:30:00]
H.A. HELLYER, SENIOR ASSOCIATE FELLOW, ROYAL UNITED SERVICES INSTITUTE: If the United States pushes support for Kurdish-Iranian groups that are in Iraq -- well, Iraq is not "neutral territory." You have, of course, Kurdish forces in Iraq that will be supportive of this. You have many other Iraqi forces that definitely will not be and are very closely aligned with the Iranian regime. You don't want to see another --
BECKY ANDERSON, CNN ANCHOR: Yeah.
HELLYER: -- set of civil strife unfold on Iraqi territory as well.
But it doesn't seem like those in Washington have really thought this properly through.
ANDERSON: So H.A., your analysis so important for us. Thank you very much indeed for joining us today from Cairo.
HELLYER: Of course. Be safe.
ANDERSON: And the very latest from Iran's foreign minister. He has just posted to X that Trump is "bombing the negotiation table out of spite." "Mr. Trump betrayed diplomacy and Americans who elected him," he said.
All right, we're going to get you back to Erica Hill now with the breaking political news out of the United States. A big win for a Texas Democrat who defied the polls. Why that matters is up next.
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[05:35:30]
ERICA HILL, CNN ANCHOR: CNN projects House Rep. James Talarico will win the U.S. Democratic Senate primary in Texas to defeat U.S. Congresswoman Jasmine Crockett. There is though a legal battle which could be brewing. This after the Texas Supreme Court stopped Dallas County from counting late votes after there was some confusion over new voting rules that allowed some voting areas to stay open later.
Talarico's Republican opponent -- well, that will be decided in 12 more weeks. There is now a runoff set for May. Republican incumbent Sen. John Cornyn will face off against the state's attorney general Ken Paxton, neither of whom were able to secure, as you see there, the 50 percent threshold needed to win.
Nathan Gonzales is the editor and publisher of Inside Politics (sic) and joins us from Tampa. Nathan, good to have you here this morning.
You know, a good chunk of those votes -- a fair amount, actually -- went to Wesley Hunt there in that Republican primary in this Texas Senate race.
How much are those votes do you think are in play moving into this runoff? Will those voters show up?
NATHAN GONZALES, EDITOR AND PUBLISHER, INSIDE ELECTIONS: Well, that's the -- that's the key. Typically, turnout in a runoff drops off dramatically and, in this case, I think that would benefit Ken Paxton who -- his supporters seem to be more conservative or more likely to come out. That's why Sen. Cornyn, a few hours ago on election night, you know, was encouraging people to turn out because he thinks that will help him.
But the key with those Wesley Hunt voters is if they have already decided to vote against their incumbent senator who they have known for 24 years and for 10 years as attorney general before that, what would make them -- what would they learn about Cornyn that would make them feel better about supporting him?
Now one of those reasons could be President Trump. And as Congressman Dent said a few minutes ago, what does President Trump do? He has not endorsed in the race, so far. Does he come off the sidelines and what does that look like? But that's where the margin matters.
HILL: Um-hum.
GONZALES: And we'll see if when all of these votes -- initial votes are counted whether Sen. Cornyn is ahead of Paxton or not because that could matter to President Trump.
HILL: Yeah. The thinking for some people -- not all, but most Democrats this morning is in this matchup with James Talarico they may want Ken Paxton over a John Cornyn.
Do you agree?
GONZALES: Yes. I mean, well, in general, Democrats actually do not -- they are not anxious to have a general election in Texas because they have been through this dance before. They have run multiple, very expensive races -- Senate races, and they've come up short.
That's why sometimes we hear Democrats talking about potentially challenging in Mississippi or South Carolina because even though those are more conservative states, they are cheaper. It is less expensive. But if Paxton is the nominee, then Democrats will have to take a look.
But the challenge for Cornyn is that he is trying to make the case that if Paxton's the nominee it's a -- it's a catastrophic event for Republicans. But even in a poll where he -- by his allies -- it showed that Talarico was ahead of Paxton by three points, but it showed the Cornyn was only ahead of Talarico by three points. That's not a huge difference and I think it shows that the overall environment -- that President Trump -- that President Trump is not, you know, as popular as he could be, that that's creating a softness nationwide --
HILL: Um-hum.
GONZALES: -- that's pulling states into play and us to talk about states we normally wouldn't be talking about.
HILL: So what are some of those states?
We're going to focus on Texas obviously for a long time and Texas always gets a lot of attention. It's a big state and there are, you know, sort of all these questions about could this be the time, right -- it's been 30 years now. But could this Senate race, for example, be the one that flips in Texas? We'll have plenty of time to talk about that.
What else are you watching as we move now toward November?
GONZALES: Well, in general, Democrats need to gain four seats in order to get to 51 and the majority. The easiest one would be North Carolina, which also had a primary.
HILL: Um-hum.
GONZALES: There wasn't a lot of drama. That matchup is now set. So that would be plus one.
Democrats need to win in Maine against Susan Collins. It's a Democratic state and she's a Republican senator. That would be plus two even though they've never been able to defeat Susan Collins before.
Then we get into this batch of Republican states where Democrats need to win probably two of four. Texas is one of them, Alaska, Ohio, and Iowa. These are not swing states. Again, these are Republican states.
And so if you take Texas out of the mix then that means that Democrats probably need to win two of three out of Ohio, Iowa, and Alaska, and it just narrows that path a bit. So that's why Democrats want to have as big a playing field as possible, so they don't have to run the table.
[05:40:00]
HILL: How difficult is it in this moment given the state of the world -- we know some of the issues that still matter, right, to voters or what we hear regularly, right? It's the economy. That's what they wanted to hear from the president just ahead of the State of the Union. Affordability is going to be key. But when we have the country now engaged in a war with Iran, which does not have a clear end date, that is really throwing a lot up in the air. GONZALES: Yes. Typically, our elections are about the economy and foreign policy drops, you know, somewhere much further down the list. But when our men and women are serving and dying that starts to -- foreign policy starts to creep up the list.
And it's also an economic issue because voters elected Trump out of frustration with President Biden and Vice President Harris and their work on the economy. They elected Trump to fix the economy and make their lives better. So if voters perceive President Trump not having his eye focused on the economy and looking at those affordability issues, then it could hurt the Republicans that are running, you know, this November in the midterm elections. It could imperil those narrow majorities that Republicans have in the House and the Seante.
HILL: Yeah.
Nathan Gonzales, great to talk to you this morning. Thank you.
GONZALES: Good to see you.
HILL: We have some live images for you -- Capitol Hill. Still dark there, of course, in the nation's capital as we wait for the sun to come up. A lot happening there on the Hill today. U.S. lawmakers expected to grill Minnesota officials in the coming hours. This is related to allegations of fraud in the state.
Minnesota's Gov. Tim Walz and the state Attorney General Keith Ellison are expected to testify in front of the House Oversight Committee. Now ahead of that testimony the committee released a lengthy report asserting that they, in fact, did fail to act in Minnesota in the face of fraud despite their authority to intervene.
The Trump administration is also withholding more than $250 million in Medicaid funds from Minnesota as it tries to pressure state leaders. We'll be following that closely for you today.
Meantime, Spain facing a potential trade war with the United States for its stance on the military strikes in Iran. We'll take you live to Madrid next.
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[05:46:40]
HILL: President Trump is once again at odds with a fellow NATO ally, now threating to cut off trade with Spain. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez has condemned the U.S. military strikes in Iran and is barring the U.S. from using its military bases in southern Spain to participate in the ongoing conflict. In turn, President Trump criticized the country for failing to meet its NATO defense spending commitment.
Joining me now CNN's Pau Mosquera who is live for us in Madrid for more. So where do things stand this morning?
PAU MOSQUERA, CNN CORRESPONDENT: Well Erica, earlier this morning in an institutional statement, Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez summed up what is his government's position on this. He stated that they are not with the war. He also stated that right now they are against the attacks that the United States and Israel are perpetrating against Iran but also stated that they are against all what Iran is doing to the other countries from the Persian Gulf.
He actually compared the ongoing conflict with what happened 20 years ago with the war in Iraq, saying that the outcome for Europe wasn't any good because it made the terrorism have a bigger impact in the continent.
Let's actually have a listen to some of what he said during this institutional statement.
(BEGIN VIDEO CLIP)
PEDRO SANCHEZ, SPANISH PRIME MINISTER (through translator): What we do know is Iran war will not lead to a fair international order nor will it lead to higher wages, better public services, or a healthier environment. In fact, what we can foresee at the moment is more economic uncertainty, rises in oil prices and also in gas prices. That is why we in Spain are against this disaster.
(END VIDEO CLIP)
MOSQUERA: Yesterday afternoon, Erica, after learning Trump's remarks about cutting trade ties with Spain, a spokesperson of the government told CNN that they consider themselves a key member of the Atlantic alliance. That also they maintain a mutually beneficial trade relation with the United States, but if Trump desires to reveal the actual trade ties with the country, they can reveal so, but he will have to respect both international law and the current agreements between the European Union and the United States, Erica.
HILL: Pau Mosquera live for us in Madrid this hour. Pau, thank you.
Stay with us. We'll be right back.
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[05:53:45]
HILL: It is now day five of the war with Iran and its impact is being felt worldwide by travelers. Emirates, Etihad, Virgin Atlantic -- they have resumed limited flights in the Middle East region as travelers are trying to get out the affected areas. It's important to note though more than 2,500 flights in the region remain canceled.
CNN's Richard Quest has more now on how these disruptions are impacting passengers worldwide.
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RICHARD QUEST, CNN ANCHOR, QUEST MEANS BUSINESS: There are tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of passengers that are now stranded around the world as the airspace in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates remains closed. The UAE includes the airports of Abu Dhabi and Dubai -- Dubai being the largest and most significant.
The Gulf three airports are now the backbone of much of international aviation ever since those hubs grew through Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad, so the number of travelers passing through has grown exponentially.
[05:55:00]
Now with the missiles flying the airspace is closed and the ripple effects are being felt around the globe. Some flights are just starting again, according to the UAE certain safety corridors are being constructed out of Dubai. That will allow flydubai and Emirates to get limited flights. Perhaps up to 48 flights an hour will be allowed to leave. How they're doing it isn't clear, but it's widely believed to also include escorts from military aircraft and, of course, ensuring safe routes through other countries.
What this has all shown is that the shift in aviation to the Gulf three airports has now been complete and dramatic. And now whenever there are problems in the Middle East, so it's the Gulf three carriers that perhaps bear the biggest brunt.
Richard Quest, CNN, New York.
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HILL: Thanks so much for joining us here on EARLY START. I'm Erica Hill in New York. Stay tuned. The news continues right here on CNN. "CNN THIS MORNING" comes your way after a quick break.
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